Author Topic: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?  (Read 47148 times)

Dogastrophe

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #500 on: March 26, 2020, 05:44:28 PM »
One province over a lady was arrested and placed in a holding cell for violating her self isolation order. 

"Police told CBC News on Tuesday their primary goal was to educate people on the need to stay home and arrests would only come if someone refused to comply.

In this case, police said education wasn't enough."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/corner-brook-woman-arrested-covid-19-1.5509212

There are a lot of people not following the quarantine.  I'm hoping it doesn't come to a full ban on leaving the home.

I was speaking with a colleague in Corner Brook a few mins ago who has some insider info.  Apparently the lady was in a cab and told the driver that she was supposed to be self isolating.  He stopped cab, told her to get out, and called police.  Police arrived to assess the situation and, as she stomped up the road away from them, explained in explicit detail the manner in which they could fuck themselves and their mother.

And they released her from custody on Wednesday only to rearrest her on Thursday. FFS  Just an edit.  Apparently the women involved has a history of mental illness.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/rnc-public-health-arrest-isolate-quarantine-1.5510514
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 05:22:19 AM by Dogastrophe »

GuitarStv

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SwordGuy

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #502 on: March 26, 2020, 06:51:28 PM »
We beat China in confirmed cases! Woot! We're #1!!!! SUCK IT, CHINA!!! #murica

https://www.axios.com/united-states-most-coronavirus-cases-52b6d1b5-bc65-4b86-a42d-712cf9e3b556.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=1100&fbclid=IwAR3rS4WnRZ9hap6VmLCUa7E1x6hlTPcW7K67iHxotUoEMRvDTCGQaXG8fqE




MAGA BABY! 

Who said Trump's an unfit leader?

Trump finally made America the greatest at something!

And **so** sportsmanlike, too!

Even though the Chinese cheated and got at least a month's lead on us and tested gobs and gobs of people to get their count up, Trump made sure they retained a sporting chance by barely testing anyone in our country.

But with good ole American hard work and ingenuity, we still got to #1

#1 !!!

#1 !!!

#1 !!!

MAGA for the win!       

And that #DieForTheDow inspiration!   Simply brilliant!    Instead of letting old and already ill people die expensive deaths on medicare after years of draining down the social security trust fund, they're going to let them die now at their own expense.   
My astonishment knows no bounds.

And since those folks weren't productive, i.e., making money by working for him and his rich friends, which means they should have been done away with anyway, our productivity stats per capita should go up, too!   

PS -- all that is sarcasm.  It's not always easy to tell the difference anymore between biting sarcasm using ridiculous, over-the-top policy suggestions and actual positions put forward by Republicans in office anymore.

Haven't seen them realize our productivity stats per capita would go up, but as for the rest, yep, we have elected sociopaths who think this is good policy.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 07:13:19 PM by SwordGuy »

PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #503 on: March 26, 2020, 08:24:44 PM »
Is this what he meant when he said that we would be tired of winning?

ender

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #504 on: March 26, 2020, 09:25:02 PM »
So I've been keeping up with several of the economists analyzing this and advocating action, and I would say most disagree with your final result.  The situation of 1 is expected to result in a recession of very short duration (6-9 months) because this is not a question of supply.  Robert Reich did a terrific job of explaining this scenario a few days ago.  This is the method we should pursue and which all leaders are.  The idiots (our president among them) is trying for 2 and that is one that most agree will result in a depression because it will cause waves of infection that recur and continue over an 18-24 month cycle and cause economic chaos throughout that time.

So the choices really seem to be, lockdown hard and once and do not relent too early and get through this in about 2 years total or come out too fast and drag the cycle on and look at multi year havoc.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see any quick route back to economic growth. The scale and speed of this crash is staggering, and I'm not confident that it'll be a brisk recovery. 800,000 jobs in the US were lost in a little over a year back in the late 2000s; there were 3.2 million job losses this week. A whole range of businesses are going to be in severe trouble with or without government intervention, and simply will not survive in their current form for more than a few weeks at this rate. And restrictions will be loosened piecemeal rather than all at once. And supply chains for a host of industries will have to be redesigned and reorganised. And a whole swathe of people in precarious industries will, I suspect, become hellbent on insulating themselves against future crashes and disasters. This is the kind of event that permanently alters cultures, and a lot of freelancers who just saw a year's work vanish in days (and formerly employed workers who are now scrambling to pay for essentials) will respond to a recovery by piling money into an emergency fund rather than going to restaurants and buying cars.

I do think you're right that we'll see the beginnings of a recovery in about two years, but it will be slower and from a lower baseline, and I'm not sure we'll ever go back to the way things were six months ago.

Something to consider is that in theory, most of those job losses were temporary here and many claims were reduction in hours/etc.

If say 90% of those 3.2M were reduction in hours then if the entire situation happens very quickly, then they might regain their hours quickly.

Villanelle

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #505 on: March 26, 2020, 11:37:55 PM »
A casual friend now has it. Her 80 yo father, with whom she has been staying, is hospitalized, on a respirator, and doctors are not saying good things.  His positive test is back.  Her's is still out, but it's pretty clear she has it.  She is in her late 20s or early 30s and said she has never experienced anything like this.  Her descriptions are terrifying and heartbreaking.  She's still at home, at least for now.

It also makes me irrationally (or perhaps it is entirely rational) at the people who continue to deny this.  And continue to defy the things that are going to help prevent some of this extreme suffering.  And make no mistake--it is *suffering*.  And the longer these selfish assholes keep going to the beach and church and restaurants, the longer the rest of us who are doing the right thing have to continue with these measures.

I'm on week 4 of near entire social isolation.  I started early because I could and it seemed like the right thing.  At the time, I didn't fear the disease, and I thought I was just doing it for the community.  Now, I'm also scared for myself and my family.  It's not the flu, even for young people.  It's not pneumonia.  It's cruel and painful and hope-stealing and awful in a way that I can't put in to words. 

And I feel like we are at the beginning of the suffering here in most of the US.

I think you're right, unfortunately. You have an awful pandemic situation, a terrible health system, and massive mis-management. We're all in lockdown or at some point in this nasty situation, but the world is looking at USA watching a train wreck happening. It's awful.

I know have a second acquaintance with a presumtive case.  Another relative young person (probably early 30s).  Went to the ER, has pneumonia, awaiting Covid test results.

~~~~

And the notion that we should violate the olds and infirms?  These are young healthy women.  Not overweight, no major health conditions of which I'm aware.  Yet these women are incredibly sick.  They will likely be in no condition to go to a workplace for weeks.   That's not going to have an economic impact?  Of course it is.  And that's sort of a best case scenario. 

   

SwordGuy

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #506 on: March 27, 2020, 12:03:10 AM »
I know two people who have it for sure.

One is a skilled nurse who, thankfully, hasn't had to be hospitalized.   She feels miserable, though.   But our testing regimen is so bad that she hasn't been tested for it because they couldn't spare the tests, so she isn't in the test group.

The second is a lady in our old neighborhood.   She's been hospitalized and her husband can't go see her because she's isolated.   I saw him yesterday while we were picking up stuff from the old house and asked him (from 20 feet away) how she was doing.   It's obvious he has no hope left.   I don't know whether she's been officially counted or not.




bigblock440

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #507 on: March 27, 2020, 06:16:56 AM »
So I've been keeping up with several of the economists analyzing this and advocating action, and I would say most disagree with your final result.  The situation of 1 is expected to result in a recession of very short duration (6-9 months) because this is not a question of supply.  Robert Reich did a terrific job of explaining this scenario a few days ago.  This is the method we should pursue and which all leaders are.  The idiots (our president among them) is trying for 2 and that is one that most agree will result in a depression because it will cause waves of infection that recur and continue over an 18-24 month cycle and cause economic chaos throughout that time.

So the choices really seem to be, lockdown hard and once and do not relent too early and get through this in about 2 years total or come out too fast and drag the cycle on and look at multi year havoc.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see any quick route back to economic growth. The scale and speed of this crash is staggering, and I'm not confident that it'll be a brisk recovery. 800,000 jobs in the US were lost in a little over a year back in the late 2000s; there were 3.2 million job losses this week.

That's not 3.2 million lost jobs, that's 3.2 million unemployment claims.  Governor declares a state of emergence, shuts down all restaurants, bars, stores, gathering places etc. for a few weeks, those people now file for unemployment since they won't get paid and (like you said) the businesses can't afford to pay them.  Multiply that by 50 states.  Do you really think that once the restrictions are lifted, those places won't open back up?  Nobody's ever going to a bar or restaurant again?  No, not everything's going to come back right away, but those numbers are so big due to a government mandated temporary closure, not because the jobs disappeared. 

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #508 on: March 27, 2020, 09:41:15 AM »
Here is more alarming  irrationality from a high-ranking Mexican official.

NY Times
March 26



“The majority [of those infected] are wealthy people. If you are rich, you are at risk. If you are poor, no...We poor people, we are immune.” Puebla Gov. Miguel Barbosa


PDXTabs

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #509 on: March 27, 2020, 09:52:01 AM »
That's not 3.2 million lost jobs, that's 3.2 million unemployment claims.

Additionally, in some (most?, all?) states you can claim unemployment even if you are still working. For example, if your 40 hour a week job got cut to 8 hours a week.

Cassie

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #510 on: March 27, 2020, 11:45:02 AM »
I would guess that many small businesses will never reopen. Restaurants in particular don’t have a huge profit margin.

martyconlonontherun

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #511 on: March 27, 2020, 11:50:26 AM »
I would guess that many small businesses will never reopen. Restaurants in particular don’t have a huge profit margin.
I think I read someone said 75% will never reopen. But I assume that is under the same name. I'm sure owners will reopen after bankruptcy or new people will open restaurants in replace of old ones. Yes, less people will be eating out, but rents will also go down.

Kris

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #512 on: March 27, 2020, 11:50:35 AM »
I would guess that many small businesses will never reopen. Restaurants in particular don’t have a huge profit margin.

That's okay about the restaurants, though, according to Trump:

“I’ve heard 3 percent could be lost, and you could go as high as 10 or 11 percent, but they’ll all come back in one form of another. Might be a different restaurant. But it’s gonna be a great business for a lot of people. We’re making it easy for people — look, what we’re doing in terms of loans, what we’re doing in terms of salaries, they’ll all come back. It may not be the same restaurant, it may not be the same ownership, but they’ll all be back.”

GreenEggs

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #513 on: March 27, 2020, 12:04:42 PM »
I would guess that many small businesses will never reopen. Restaurants in particular don’t have a huge profit margin.

That's okay about the restaurants, though, according to Trump:

“I’ve heard 3 percent could be lost, and you could go as high as 10 or 11 percent, but they’ll all come back in one form of another. Might be a different restaurant. But it’s gonna be a great business for a lot of people. We’re making it easy for people — look, what we’re doing in terms of loans, what we’re doing in terms of salaries, they’ll all come back. It may not be the same restaurant, it may not be the same ownership, but they’ll all be back.”


So, why do we need to bail out the airlines & cruise lines again, and resorts?  They'll all come back in some form or fashion. 




frugalnacho

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #514 on: March 27, 2020, 12:05:46 PM »
They'll all be back by Easter.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #515 on: March 27, 2020, 12:10:15 PM »
They'll all be back by Easter.

One of these Easters anyway.

SwordGuy

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #516 on: March 27, 2020, 12:24:46 PM »
I would guess that many small businesses will never reopen. Restaurants in particular don’t have a huge profit margin.

That's okay about the restaurants, though, according to Trump:

“I’ve heard 3 percent could be lost, and you could go as high as 10 or 11 percent, but they’ll all come back in one form of another. Might be a different restaurant. But it’s gonna be a great business for a lot of people. We’re making it easy for people — look, what we’re doing in terms of loans, what we’re doing in terms of salaries, they’ll all come back. It may not be the same restaurant, it may not be the same ownership, but they’ll all be back.”


So, why do we need to bail out the airlines & cruise lines again, and resorts?  They'll all come back in some form or fashion.

Because ultra-rich people who buy and sell congressmen don't own stock in the neighborhood restaurant, but they do own stock in the big businesses.

That's why.

Follow the money.

ender

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #517 on: March 27, 2020, 03:53:11 PM »
Here is more alarming  irrationality from a high-ranking Mexican official.

NY Times
March 26



“The majority [of those infected] are wealthy people. If you are rich, you are at risk. If you are poor, no...We poor people, we are immune.” Puebla Gov. Miguel Barbosa

Depending on how strongly correlated wealth and life expectancy... that might not be so far from the truth as far as averages go?

Telecaster

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #518 on: March 27, 2020, 06:11:11 PM »
Well, as I stated in the contrarian thread, there seems to be at least a third option of quarantine for the elderly and vulnerable and school, University and work for the others. It has been carefully discussed in the German Bundestag yesterday as virologists have advised to do this.
There is a problem of treating the population unequally when doing this so alone for that reason it may not happen but it is discussed as a solution to the problem and it will be interesting to see what is decided.

I'm not sure that's a viable option for practical reasons.  Major US airlines had already stopped flying to China before the travel restrictions were announced.  Domestically, where there are almost no travel restrictions, yet airlines are canceling flights and those that aren't canceled are flying virtually empty.  In Seattle where I live many restaurants had already closed for lack of business--some permanently--before any restrictions on public gatherings were in effect.  Boeing factory workers who are deemed essential almost revolted until Boeing wound up closing down the lines anyway.  The economy will not recover until people feel like this issue is under control. 

One proposal is to protect the more vulnerable while everyone else goes about their business.  How does this work?  A large percentage of people over 65 live in multi-generational households.  If grandma can't live at home, what do we do with her?  Do we have a safe place for her to live?   And what if grandma provides a caregiver role for the grandkids?  Like say, when mom is at work.   Who takes care of the kids now?  What if grandma is the only caregiver?   

And what's the sequelae?  Can you say for sure it is a good idea to let this thing burn itself out? 

The only rationale response is what we are sort of doing:  Clamp things down and buy time until we can do widespread testing and contact tracing and work on treatments and vaccines.  The economy will never recover until we do those things.

Anette

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #519 on: March 28, 2020, 02:30:38 AM »
@Telecaster
Since Wednesday when this was first discussed (to my knowledge) there have been more politicians talking about this but keeping in mind this could happen earliest at the end of April. Ultimately that seems the only way? I am not certain how they are doing this in China?
It also is possibly a different situation in Germany as we started testing much earlier than the US, have tested more people per 1000 inhabitants and have according to different sources 3-4x more ICU and general hospital beds available (during normal times).
How this develops remains to be seen, though

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #520 on: March 28, 2020, 05:12:32 AM »
I would guess that many small businesses will never reopen. Restaurants in particular don’t have a huge profit margin.

That's okay about the restaurants, though, according to Trump:

“I’ve heard 3 percent could be lost, and you could go as high as 10 or 11 percent, but they’ll all come back in one form of another. Might be a different restaurant. But it’s gonna be a great business for a lot of people. We’re making it easy for people — look, what we’re doing in terms of loans, what we’re doing in terms of salaries, they’ll all come back. It may not be the same restaurant, it may not be the same ownership, but they’ll all be back.”


So, why do we need to bail out the airlines & cruise lines again, and resorts?  They'll all come back in some form or fashion.

Because ultra-rich people who buy and sell congressmen don't own stock in the neighborhood restaurant, but they do own stock in the big businesses.

That's why.

Follow the money.

Yep. Pretty much.

To be fair, in normal times if an airline went bankrupt (which many have) they would keep operating, restructure, and continue on. Or they would get bought out by a competitor or outside investor who sees a good deal. All of those things could still happen. There's plenty of money on the sidelines and I'm sure for a 50-80% discount over what they were trading a few months ago, someone would be willing to buy a cruise line, airline, hotel chain, etc.. But that would also mean a lot of shareholders lose everything, probably some bondholders, and lots of others down the line who extended credit to these companies in one form or another would suffer large losses and also go out of business. It's all interconnected and while I loathe the idea of spending hundreds of billions to rescue companies, I do recognize that the alternative would probably be worse. This is not a 20-30% drop in sales, it's a 90%+ drop in sales. No business can survive that for long, even if they start laying people off left and right. There are still fixed expenses that they're contractually obligated to pay.

egillespie

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #521 on: March 28, 2020, 06:18:10 AM »
In addition, the government more or less prohibited the airlines from operating most of their routes.  In some cases regulation increased, in other cases certain passengers were banned, in yet other cases airlines can no longer operate specific flights.  It seems reasonable the airlines have a claim against the public and their officials.  I'm of the opinion many other businesses also have claims, however not everyone has clout -- and this is where the real travesty is in all of this.
 
Aviation should be treated like a public service, like a fire department or the public water utility.  It is too vulnerable to the irrationality of civilization, hysteria, war, terrorism, etc., to be a long term viable market based entity.  Yes, I think the airlines should be nationalized.

Once this is all over and the fear is reduced, there will be less flights available, more seats crammed into already tight spaces, airline travel will become more expensive and the customer service will be worse (if that is even imaginable).   Have fun.

Getting back to the original post in this thread.  There has been a lot of talk on social media apparently (aside from this forum I don't participate) about people not taking COVID-19 "seriously".  My feeling is this type of thought process, this mindset, is irrational. 

I had a rough childhood growing up.  The byproduct of two narcissistic and alcoholic parents, I had a lot of hysteria and hypochondria.  There were many months of wasted medical tests, irrational fear, depression, over and over again.  I learned to not think that way, but honestly this took years.  I'm a better person for it as the hypochondria and narcissistic thinking is a very self destructive process and also hurt those around me.  I see A LOT of this type of behavior in society now, even in our politicians and policies.  One of the most important things I learned reflecting about my own behavior is that when hysterical, reason, science and rationality are irrelevant.  People will destroy everything they know and have to satisfy their subconscious demons. 

Statistics show healthy people are rarely effected by this virus other than at most mild symptoms.   For healthy people, this virus is literally as risky as a flu and nothing more.  The majority of people in America are clearly unhealthy and have multiple pre-existing conditions (most chronic illness is preventable and reversible).   For decades people in America have not taken their health seriously, obvious examples are obesity, diet, mental health and drug/alcohol addiction.  All of a sudden people are taking their health seriously?  I'm not buying what you are selling.   People are reacting because of irrational fear, and when people do that they are very likely to make bad choices (from my own experience).

A morbidly obese person in a grocery store wearing a mask stocking up on unhealthy frozen foods and toilet paper and practicing social distancing is not someone who is taking their health seriously.   Meanwhile, the majority of healthy people will get exposed to this virus, infected, develop immunity and not even know anything happened.

The science behind quarantines, lockdowns and social distancing is dubious.  There are studies that show the virus is already widespread.  There are studies that show there is not much health benefit from the catastrophic economic damage we are doing.  In addition, those that support the lockdowns and quarantines all but ignore the mental health ramifications, the poverty and all the other social ills that go along with these policies -- but again, it's impossible to reason with hysteria (I know from experience).  We won't know until there is a lot more testing, so current policy is based on theory, fear and previous fatality estimates that were likely much too high -- by orders of magnitude.

We are in this situation because people didn't take their health seriously.  People don't eat healthy, they don't exercise, they don't deal with conditions they already have.  We don't have nearly the amount of ICU facilities as Europe -- and now all of us will suffer significantly for years to come because people have not taken their health and healthcare seriously.  Many people are sitting ducks for this illness because of their previous inability to take their health seriously, and now we all have to pay for their immaturity. Many people will have their lives turned upside down even though the virus will never cause them symptoms.

On the extreme I think it can be argued this is not a public health crisis.  This is a crisis for those already ill, but those that are already ill are taking the rest of society down with them.

So don't give me that "not taking COVID-19 seriously" crap.  I've taken my physical and mental health extremely seriously and because of that I am not concerned about this virus at all.  I am however very concerned about the irrational psychology and the future effects as a consequence of such behavior.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 06:26:45 AM by egillespie »

Lews Therin

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #522 on: March 28, 2020, 08:05:18 AM »

On the extreme I think it can be argued this is not a public health crisis.  This is a crisis for those already ill, but those that are already ill are taking the rest of society down with them.

So don't give me that "not taking COVID-19 seriously" crap.  I've taken my physical and mental health extremely seriously and because of that I am not concerned about this virus at all.  I am however very concerned about the irrational psychology and the future effects as a consequence of such behavior.

It's sadly not only unhealthy people that die, (though they are at higher risk) but also people who are simply sick or older or younger.
The other point is that death skyrocket in percentages when hospitals become full, because people don't have access to the equipment that would save their lives.

Linked a graphic from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus  (Following Europe's CDC numbers)

Note China, South Corea and Japan, VS Europe, IRAN ... It's a pretty visible and aggressively clear way of visualizing what concrete and effective measures does to the death rate. (SK and China put in place VERY severe restrictions, and contact chaining.)

(In the link, you can watch the video as it shows time advancing. It's pretty cool.)

egillespie

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #523 on: March 28, 2020, 08:44:49 AM »

On the extreme I think it can be argued this is not a public health crisis.  This is a crisis for those already ill, but those that are already ill are taking the rest of society down with them.

So don't give me that "not taking COVID-19 seriously" crap.  I've taken my physical and mental health extremely seriously and because of that I am not concerned about this virus at all.  I am however very concerned about the irrational psychology and the future effects as a consequence of such behavior.

It's sadly not only unhealthy people that die, (though they are at higher risk) but also people who are simply sick or older or younger.
The other point is that death skyrocket in percentages when hospitals become full, because people don't have access to the equipment that would save their lives.

Linked a graphic from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus  (Following Europe's CDC numbers)

Note China, South Corea and Japan, VS Europe, IRAN ... It's a pretty visible and aggressively clear way of visualizing what concrete and effective measures does to the death rate. (SK and China put in place VERY severe restrictions, and contact chaining.)

(In the link, you can watch the video as it shows time advancing. It's pretty cool.)

Understood, and the graph is very cool. 

I'm not aware of any deaths in younger healthy people.  There have been one or two anecdotal stories in the news about the death of teenagers, but without data I view them with skepticism.  Also, a typical influenza strain kills young people every year, sadly even those that have been immunized. 

Unlike H1N1 which typically killed younger people at much higher rates than the elderly.  I've read this is because elderly probably had an immunity, but that is a theory I suspect. 

The testimonials and anecdotal stories I meet with great skepticism.  The New York Times had an opinion piece published today written by one of their staff.  A typical story to scare and intimidate, we should take the virus "seriously".  The author claimed to be "generally" healthy, however vaguely admitted to smoking, but he quit some time ago he said.  Looking at his pictures online, he is not a healthy BMI, so being a middle aged person he may very well  be hypertensive.  Hypertensive medications, especially ACE inhibitors have been potentially shown to lead to respiratory problems with COVID-19.

One of the most effective ways to deal with hypochondria is to look at science and data.  Testimonials and emotional thoughts are the opposite of reality, so I've learned to discount them as much as possible for my own serenity.  Humans are notoriously very bad at assessing risk -- hysterical humans even more so. 
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 08:49:18 AM by egillespie »

beltim

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #524 on: March 28, 2020, 08:52:07 AM »
Statistics show healthy people are rarely effected by this virus other than at most mild symptoms.   For healthy people, this virus is literally as risky as a flu and nothing more.  The majority of people in America are clearly unhealthy and have multiple pre-existing conditions (most chronic illness is preventable and reversible).   For decades people in America have not taken their health seriously, obvious examples are obesity, diet, mental health and drug/alcohol addiction.  All of a sudden people are taking their health seriously?  I'm not buying what you are selling.   People are reacting because of irrational fear, and when people do that they are very likely to make bad choices (from my own experience).

This is false.  Disseminating this sort of false information is dangerous - you are literally advocating that people put their lives at risk because you are repeating false information.

Let's put aside the fact that the death rate from COVID-19 is 10-20 times higher than that of the flu1.  Let's talk about how hospitalizations from COVID-19 are also 5-20 higher than that of the flu and not just affecting those with ores-existing confitions2.  Let's talk about how hospitalizations in the US are hitting every adult age group without a big difference in prevalence3. And how it's about twice as infectious4, which since that's an exponential means that it runs through the population way more than twice as fast.  Let's talk about how those who are hospitalized (remember, at 5-20 times the rate of flu) are twice as likely to need to be in the ICU and on mechanical ventilation even compared to a "bad" flu5.
Let's talk about how all the things you're saying about COVID-19 being more likely to hit those with preexisting health conditions are also true for the flu6.  Let's talk about how Olympic athletes are saying it's the worst disease they've ever had7 and need to be hospitalized8.

This disease does not only affect the healthy.  Unless you're saying multiple Olympic athletes aren't healthy?

There's a reason people are saying that you're not taking this seriously.  You think you're invulnerable, but you're not.  You think this isn't a big deal, but it is. 

I don't have time to do the same breakdown for your other wrong points, but I assure you that the science behind quarantines, lockdowns, and social distancing is very well validated.  Look at different countries responses to this, the relative infection rates, and the relative death rates, and you'll see the real-world efficacy of different measure for this very virus.


1https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
2 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
3 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-young-people-hospitalized-covid-19-chart/
4 https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
5 https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-model-shows-hospitals-what-to-expect/  and https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1164/rccm.201401-0066LE
6 https://www.medpagetoday.com/resource-centers/contemporary-approaches-influenza-a-b/icu-admission-and-mortality-during-flu-season/2391
7 https://www.aa.com.tr/en/latest-on-coronavirus-outbreak/olympic-gold-medalist-van-der-burgh-battling-covid-19/1775843
8 https://www.aipsmedia.com/index.html?page=artdetail&art=27586&CoronavirusItalyEdoardo-Melloni

SwordGuy

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #525 on: March 28, 2020, 09:09:59 AM »
Yes, @egillespie ,  the asthma I've had since I was a child (when I most assuredly was not obese) is a clear sign of a moral failing in me.

You're right, I deserve to die early.    #DieForTheDow!


Lews Therin

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #526 on: March 28, 2020, 09:11:32 AM »
To join in on Beltim's point: (Reference point 3) https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-young-people-hospitalized-covid-19-chart/

Note the ICU admissions. Those are the ones that will turn into deaths if the hospitals are overwhelmed. Which is why the distancing measures are so important. They are surviving now, but if the hospitals are full, not only would they die, but every other injury/illness that requires the same beds/machines/care will also increase in mortality.


beltim

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #527 on: March 28, 2020, 09:14:55 AM »
To join in on Beltim's point: (Reference point 3) https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-young-people-hospitalized-covid-19-chart/

Note the ICU admissions. Those are the ones that will turn into deaths if the hospitals are overwhelmed. Which is why the distancing measures are so important. They are surviving now, but if the hospitals are full, not only would they die, but every other injury/illness that requires the same beds/machines/care will also increase in mortality.

Good addition!  I meant to include that and forgot about it while getting sources.  This is such a huge, huge critical point that is the basic reason for social distancing and why "flattening the curve" saves so many lives.

Also, good graphic from your earlier post.  That's such a good illustration of how we can look in near-real time how different measures stack up in efficacy.

egillespie

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #528 on: March 28, 2020, 09:23:19 AM »
Statistics show healthy people are rarely effected by this virus other than at most mild symptoms.   For healthy people, this virus is literally as risky as a flu and nothing more.  The majority of people in America are clearly unhealthy and have multiple pre-existing conditions (most chronic illness is preventable and reversible).   For decades people in America have not taken their health seriously, obvious examples are obesity, diet, mental health and drug/alcohol addiction.  All of a sudden people are taking their health seriously?  I'm not buying what you are selling.   People are reacting because of irrational fear, and when people do that they are very likely to make bad choices (from my own experience).

This is false.  Disseminating this sort of false information is dangerous - you are literally advocating that people put their lives at risk because you are repeating false information.

Let's put aside the fact that the death rate from COVID-19 is 10-20 times higher than that of the flu1.  Let's talk about how hospitalizations from COVID-19 are also 5-20 higher than that of the flu and not just affecting those with ores-existing confitions2.  Let's talk about how hospitalizations in the US are hitting every adult age group without a big difference in prevalence3. And how it's about twice as infectious4, which since that's an exponential means that it runs through the population way more than twice as fast.  Let's talk about how those who are hospitalized (remember, at 5-20 times the rate of flu) are twice as likely to need to be in the ICU and on mechanical ventilation even compared to a "bad" flu5.
Let's talk about how all the things you're saying about COVID-19 being more likely to hit those with preexisting health conditions are also true for the flu6.  Let's talk about how Olympic athletes are saying it's the worst disease they've ever had7 and need to be hospitalized8.

This disease does not only affect the healthy.  Unless you're saying multiple Olympic athletes aren't healthy?

There's a reason people are saying that you're not taking this seriously.  You think you're invulnerable, but you're not.  You think this isn't a big deal, but it is. 

I don't have time to do the same breakdown for your other wrong points, but I assure you that the science behind quarantines, lockdowns, and social distancing is very well validated.  Look at different countries responses to this, the relative infection rates, and the relative death rates, and you'll see the real-world efficacy of different measure for this very virus.


1https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
2 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
3 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-young-people-hospitalized-covid-19-chart/
4 https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
5 https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-model-shows-hospitals-what-to-expect/  and https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1164/rccm.201401-0066LE
6 https://www.medpagetoday.com/resource-centers/contemporary-approaches-influenza-a-b/icu-admission-and-mortality-during-flu-season/2391
7 https://www.aa.com.tr/en/latest-on-coronavirus-outbreak/olympic-gold-medalist-van-der-burgh-battling-covid-19/1775843
8 https://www.aipsmedia.com/index.html?page=artdetail&art=27586&CoronavirusItalyEdoardo-Melloni

Much of the data you presented I will disagree with.  Regarding the case rate, there are obviously many more people infected with the virus than just those that have tested positive.  So any data regarding mortality that only deals with positive cases is clearly flawed, probably by several magnitudes, if not more.

As more people are tested, the virus "appears" to become less deadly.  Most people that have COVID-19 are asymptomatic and are never tested.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/821958435/why-death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving

Also, you are citing data that is obsolete and has already been prevented as false:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7

Even Dr. Fauci has hypothesized the actual death rate from the virus could be substantially lower than 1%:

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-02-28/china-study-puts-coronavirus-death-rate-at-14-37-real-number-may-be-lower

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/coronavirus-fatality-rate-computing-difficult/#slide-1

Regarding the death rates and effectiveness of social distancing and lockdowns, compare Sweden and Denmark.  Sweden has allowed most businesses and most schools to stay open, while Denmark has locked down.  As of writing this both countries have the same fatality rate (Sweden has approximately twice the population as Denmark).  If the Swedish death rate does in fact increase significantly above Denmark, then I'll be happy to change my thoughts.

Regarding testimonials and anecdotal stories, I already wrote above why I do not feel they are credible.  Just because someone says they are healthy doesn't mean they really are.  In addition, I know immunized children that have been hospitalized from the flu this year, but their cases are very rare.  When I was asthmatic I went into cardiac arrest during an asthma attack, but this is a very rare occurrence and not indicative of the overwhelming majority of asthmatic cases.

Regarding hospitals becoming overburdened, I agree.  However, at least in my part of the country every general practitioner, medical office and even urgent care centers are closed.  If someone has an unexpected or significant health problem that needs treatment there is nowhere to go but to the hospital.  Even without COVID-19 the hospitals will become overburdened. 

I've learned to only learned to rely on science and data.  The more people are tested, the base case studies indicate to me this disease isn't nearly as lethal as previously estimated.  Yes, there will be cases where people that are otherwise healthy die, but the data shows these cases are exceedingly rare. 

Relying on testimonials and anecdotal stories does lead to hysteria.  Reacting to fear based on those stories leads to bad decisions that effect us all.

Regarding the smart mouth asthma comment above.  I have asthma too, I've been on prednisone, hospitalized and even went through cardiac arrest due to an overdose of medicine while in a hospital.  Also, good luck to the millions of kids out there whose parents are now unemployed.  How will they get their asthma medicine and inhalers?  Have you ever had an asthma attack and no medicine available?  I have.  It sucks worse than COVID-19, quite frankly.  I will take my luck with a virus that in most cases causes at most mild symptoms versus having a severe asthma attack at night without any medicine available.  This will now not be a choice for a lot of children.

I invite you to look at this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/health/03brod.html

Asthma is largely preventable through natural means.  If you choose to take the anti inflammatories and steroids for your condition I'm sure you know they can cause chronic organ damage and immunity problems.  Stay healthy.  However, because some people are at high risk doesn't mean all of society needs to be locked down.  There are plenty of reasonable theories that indicate only locking down and quarantine those most at risk is preferable, may lead to better health outcomes for the entire population and also reduce the economic impact. 

I will be more than happy to change my viewpoints as the disease progresses and more is learned. 
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 09:39:35 AM by egillespie »

Davnasty

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #529 on: March 28, 2020, 09:47:00 AM »
As more people are tested, the virus "appears" to become less deadly.  Most people that have COVID-19 are asymptomatic and are never tested.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/821958435/why-death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving

The bolded is false. If that's your takeaway from the cited article, you have misread. It's not that people aren't being tested because they are asymptomatic, it's that they're not being tested because symptoms are not so severe that they're being hospitalized. They are likely still experiencing flu-like symptoms. There's a huge difference between asymptomatic and not being hospitalized.

Your point that mortality rates are likely lower than current testing rates would suggest is correct, however not to the degree you seem to believe. Again from the article you cited:

Quote
So testing was restricted to the sickest people. That probably contributed to early evidence that the fatality rate in Wuhan was 4% or more. A study published last week estimated that in Wuhan, the chance that someone who developed coronavirus symptoms would die was actually 1.4%.

That's 1.4% after adjustment.

Quote
In the U.S., it's likely that the case fatality rate from coronavirus will end up somewhere between 0.5% and 1%, once a broad cross-section of the population has been tested, Lawrence says.

But that's no reason for the nation to relax, he adds.

"To put it into perspective, that's 5 to 10 times more fatal than flu," Lawrence says, a disease that kills between 12,000 and 61,000 people a year.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 09:50:03 AM by Davnasty »

SwordGuy

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #530 on: March 28, 2020, 09:56:14 AM »

Regarding the smart mouth asthma comment above.  I have asthma too, I've been on prednisone, hospitalized and even went through cardiac arrest due to an overdose of medicine while in a hospital.  Also, good luck to the millions of kids out there whose parents are now unemployed.  How will they get their asthma medicine and inhalers? 


If there was a Darwin Award for "missing the point", you would be a surefire winner.


beltim

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #531 on: March 28, 2020, 09:59:07 AM »
I will be more than happy to change my viewpoints as the disease progresses and more is learned.

And how many deaths are you willing to accept as the cost of waiting, instead of taking measures we know work now?  When experts in nearly every country disagree with you?  Are you really so confident of your stance?

We won't truly know most of the data you want until the pandemic is over or winding down, depending on how long it takes.  In the meantime, we need to take measures we know work.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #532 on: March 28, 2020, 10:13:40 AM »
I'm not aware of any deaths in younger healthy people.

Not only is it killing young people, many young people are ending up in the hospital with serious cases, even the young healthy athletic.  It's happening with increasing frequency.

Davnasty

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #533 on: March 28, 2020, 10:15:43 AM »
Even Dr. Fauci has hypothesized the actual death rate from the virus could be substantially lower than 1%:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/coronavirus-fatality-rate-computing-difficult/#slide-1

Again, I suspect you're not reading your own citations in their entirety, but instead selecting points which support your narrative and disregarding the rest.

From your National Review citation:

Quote
Regrettably, I reckon the answer must be that even if the coronavirus dipped perceptibly below 1 percent, it would still be much worse than flu. Why? Because none less than Dr. Fauci (among others) says so. Though he recently wrote that the rate could be “considerably less than 1%,” he has also recently testified, in a House hearing, that the novel virus from China has a “mortality rate of ten times” that of seasonal flu.

Quote
I suspect that this explains the ostensible contradiction between Dr. Fauci’s two comments on the fatality rate. Context is everything. In his House testimony, Fauci was confronting a political narrative that COVID-19 is really no worse than flu, and reliance on reported cases showing a 10:1 difference was a useful rebuttal. In his essay, he was trying to demonstrate to other scientists (and whatever sliver of the public reads medical journals) the imprecision of our knowledge about exactly how much worse COVID-19 is than flu.

Quote
The biggest problem may not be the fatality rate, however marginally over or under 1 percent it turns out to be. It is that about 10 percent of those who have tested positive for the virus have required hospitalization — 6,322 out of 65,512, by my last count of the COVID Tracking Project. If this percentage holds steady, and the number of positive reported cases were to rise into the hundreds of thousands and then the millions, our medical system would be overwhelmed.


The author has some good advice for all of us when drawing conclusions from the available data:

Quote
My point is that Fauci is a scientist, and I am not. If he is humble about our state of knowledge, I need to be humility on steroids.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 10:25:35 AM by Davnasty »

former player

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #534 on: March 28, 2020, 10:16:27 AM »
Do we know whether the higher percentage of deaths in people with co-morbidities is due to

1) the virus interacting with the co-morbidity to create a more severe illness,

2) having a co-morbidity means that the body is less likely to have the strength to survive a brutal 2 or 3 weeks on a ventilator,

3) someone with co-morbidities being later in the line for scarce medical resources and aggressive treatment,

4) a genetic or lifestyle element to the ability to withstand the virus which is also linked to chances of co-morbidities,

or some combination of all of these?


OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #535 on: March 28, 2020, 10:23:00 AM »
Do we know whether the higher percentage of deaths in people with co-morbidities is due to

1) the virus interacting with the co-morbidity to create a more severe illness,

2) having a co-morbidity means that the body is less likely to have the strength to survive a brutal 2 or 3 weeks on a ventilator,

3) someone with co-morbidities being later in the line for scarce medical resources and aggressive treatment,

4) a genetic or lifestyle element to the ability to withstand the virus which is also linked to chances of co-morbidities,

or some combination of all of these?

In the USA, I'd guess 2 and 4 right now. It may well switch to 3 fairly soon as physicians become faced with a surge of patients and a shortfall of supplies with which to treat them.

Davnasty

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #536 on: March 28, 2020, 10:33:14 AM »
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/coronavirus-fatality-rate-computing-difficult/#slide-1

This is actually a really good summary of what our current data can and can't tell us. I highly recommend it.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #537 on: March 28, 2020, 11:17:59 AM »
Do we know whether the higher percentage of deaths in people with co-morbidities is due to

1) the virus interacting with the co-morbidity to create a more severe illness,

2) having a co-morbidity means that the body is less likely to have the strength to survive a brutal 2 or 3 weeks on a ventilator,

3) someone with co-morbidities being later in the line for scarce medical resources and aggressive treatment,

4) a genetic or lifestyle element to the ability to withstand the virus which is also linked to chances of co-morbidities,

or some combination of all of these?

Way to complicate things. People are dying because the viral symptoms put enormous strain on the heart and lungs. Even people with a mild dose have routinely reported chest pain and breathlessness. If the functionality of your heart and lungs is not 100% because of underlying issues, you simply won't have the ability to overcome the stresses of the viral symptoms.

Abe

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #538 on: March 28, 2020, 01:12:37 PM »
Causes of death for our patients and reports from my friends in NYC  and Seattle say the patients develop acute respiratory distress syndrome, or ARDS. It’s essentially an inflammatory response to infection that occurs in some illnesses, and the lungs fill with fluid and dead immune cells. This kills the lung cells that exchange air and blood gases. Patients with underlying lung disease have less reserve so will decompensate from ARDS sooner than someone with normal lungs. The blood pressure within the lungs increases due to the inflammation and resulting constricted vessels, so people with heart disease also have less reserve to pump against the high pressure. Most patients who survive ARDs have long-term Lung issues and require months of rehab.

So far we are seeing about a 60-70% mortality after intubation in CA, NYC and WA. Death usually within 1-2 weeks. The majority of these patients did have lung or heart disease, but not unusually bad.

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #539 on: March 29, 2020, 03:36:37 PM »
Gee, white Evangelicalism doesn't protect you from COVID-19. Who would have ever guessed?

Liberty University Brings Back Its Students, and Coronavirus, Too

SwordGuy

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #540 on: March 29, 2020, 03:45:25 PM »
Gee, white Evangelicalism doesn't protect you from COVID-19. Who would have ever guessed?

Liberty University Brings Back Its Students, and Coronavirus, Too

Learning not to listen to Falwell and his ilk just might be the single most important lesson those students learn.   

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #541 on: March 29, 2020, 03:48:52 PM »
Gee, white Evangelicalism doesn't protect you from COVID-19. Who would have ever guessed?

Liberty University Brings Back Its Students, and Coronavirus, Too

Learning not to listen to Falwell and his ilk just might be the single most important lesson those students learn.

The fact that those kids ended up there in the first place suggests that they have at least 18 years of far-right-wing brainwashing to overcome. I hope this at least gives them a bit of incentive to think for themselves.

GreenEggs

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #542 on: March 29, 2020, 07:28:43 PM »
"Give me Liberty or give me Death" takes on a new meaning.






Physicsteacher

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #543 on: March 29, 2020, 10:04:12 PM »
I'm so frustrated by people in my life who pay lip service to social distancing yet seem unwilling to actually minimize contact with those outside their households. My sister-in-law, a registered nurse working in a hospital in a state with a stay at home order, had friends over for a barbecue tonight. My roommate's sister went to a bookstore, a garden center, and a pet store for dog toys this week. A former classmate went out to buy a wading pool for her kids.

ixtap

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #544 on: March 29, 2020, 10:09:35 PM »
I'm so frustrated by people in my life who pay lip service to social distancing yet seem unwilling to actually minimize contact with those outside their households. My sister-in-law, a registered nurse working in a hospital in a state with a stay at home order, had friends over for a barbecue tonight. My roommate's sister went to a bookstore, a garden center, and a pet store for dog toys this week. A former classmate went out to buy a wading pool for her kids.

Our roommate seems suspicious of our choice to go for walks nearly every day and to our boat on weekends. But she goes shopping twice a week and gets something delivered more days than not.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #545 on: March 29, 2020, 10:23:49 PM »
My state government has said that we are not allowed to form groups of more than 2, and we are not allowed to leave our house other than for groceries, medical care, exercise, or work (where it cannot be done from home). There is an exception for households that live together - so a family of four can socialise and exercise and congregate as a four-some.

To me, that hardly seems fair. As someone who lives alone, I am not willing to spend 23 hours a day (1 hour a day for exercise) cooped up in my apartment, never seeing anyone in person, for the next 6 months. So I have set my own guidelines. The only people I physically see are the girl I'm dating, once a week, and my parents, once a fortnight. To me, the government advice should be moderated to allow people who live in a family relationship or romantic relationship but not in the same physical house to see each other.

Happy to be told I am being selfish, inconsiderate, whatever. When you have large families congregating (and still going to work), and non-essential retailers still operating as normal with no semblance of social distancing, and construction sites still operating, then there is no way that what I am doing is even a blip on the radar.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #546 on: March 29, 2020, 10:34:57 PM »
I'm not judging you for that, Bloop. They're getting carried away with this stuff, and it's inconsistent and muddled.

We've already inflicted two million people (including me) with unemployment and the destruction of their businesses. There will be depression and suicides, and bad marriages getting worse. People are anxious, afraid, stuck at home with their families, domestic violence is increasing. Just in case people didn't have enough drama already, they've decided to leave liquor stores open.

As incentives, carrot and stick both work. But it’s remarkable how quickly they jump to grab the stick. Here in Australia, the federal and state governments have already set aside over $200 billion to try to stop the economy from collapsing.

For this amount they could give every adult citizen some $12k - rather than police patrols and threats of fines and imprisonment, why not set aside all the other nonsense and simply pay people to stay home?

But that would be carrot. And they always reach for the stick.

Their demeanour, really, reminds me of US occupying forces - go around threatening and abusing everyone, then handing out wads of cash afterwards. They are then surprised when warm friendship does not spontaneously arise from this process.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 10:36:37 PM by Kyle Schuant »

Davnasty

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #547 on: March 29, 2020, 11:01:25 PM »
The only people I physically see are the girl I'm dating, once a week, and my parents, once a fortnight. To me, the government advice should be moderated to allow people who live in a family relationship or romantic relationship but not in the same physical house to see each other.

That sounds pretty reasonable to me.

I wonder if they're trying to keep the rules simple and straightforward but not being clear enough in the process.

Little Aussie Battler

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #548 on: March 30, 2020, 12:24:16 AM »
Bloop

I have a spare, so I’m happy to donate a toddler to keep you company!

It’s still unclear to me what the end-game is here. Are we waiting for a vaccine (which may not ever arrive)? If so, that will take more then 6 months. Are we buying time to increase medical capacity? Are we trying to maintain restrictions until normal flu season has passed? Are we trying to slowly build herd immunity?

More and more, I fear that the Australian government is simply making it up as they go along, which is why the messaging is so confusing and inconsistent. I won’t even start on the issue of paying for childcare.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Coronavirus - How can people be so incredibly stupid?
« Reply #549 on: March 30, 2020, 12:43:09 AM »
The idea is obviously to suppress it to a level which the medical system can handle, with the view of eventually eradicating it. This was achieved with SARS, swine flu, and so on.