Can I break free?

[money_bunny]

Greetings Everyone:

I have been reading this site and the forums for about 2 years. I appreciate the help I have received in the past. Especially from the Real Estate experts like Areblespy and some of the other people who helped me quantify my returns on my one rental property and then get out. Which I did successfully this last Summer.
   
I need some help running some numbers. I may be jumping the gun a bit. Overall I am thinking of leaving my barely 6-figure position next year in April or May and then either working part time for several years or some combination of working and living off my savings. I can keep doing it, I do love what I do. I have real impact on people's lives and I am good at it.

I feel I am getting too comfortable and paydays keep coming around faster and faster. I'll be there three years this September. I have had two patients about my age die, I had a almost fatal near miss in a car accident last year, and a friend was in ICU for weeks after another car accident and has spinal fusion and chronic pain, and a guy who mentored me is in rehab at about age 50 for a severe stroke. I know I am going to blink and I am going to be 47 and celebrating my 20 year anniversary as an RN.

   I'm confident that I can find part time work in my field of nursing especially since I am hoping to be mobile. I get recruitment calls for 13 week positions pretty frequently. Either at the Nurse Practitioner level (locums) or as a Staff RN (travel). Something I may do anyway so that I am indoors and warm during the winter. I'm not cool or anarchist enough for slab city. I also want to do some different jobs as well. I am not a “Sit on the beach” type of person.
   Right now I am living in NJ and plan to either be in PA or elsewhere possibly with a much lower COL than one of the major coastal cities. I'm possibly aiming at settling down in NorthEastern PA of Hudson Valley North of the rich people but South of Albany since it's near and accessible to most of my friends and family. Two households of people I know will store my stuff for me. So no storage locker. Plus I don't own much for my age. My co-workers convinced me to watch "Marriage at First Sight" and it was impressive the amount of stuff the participants had.
        I did go on the road before in 2001 and knew I would probably do it again so I did not upgrade much of any of my stuff. I probably have a van full of things if I get ride of the couch and the bookcases. I can re-home most of it.

   Before that I would like to do some more exploring of the USA and Canada and possibly some international travel, the kind you really can't do when work does not want you away from the office more than one week at a time. Secondly in countries with much lower COL for several months at a time.
   I may want to do the geographic relocation first for a few months to somewhere like Eastern Europe or South America since I'm worried I am going to get scared and run back and get a job. I've been working since I was 12 and always “Hustled” so this is going to be a hard habit to break. I'd love to go to Baja California, and drive south through Mexico I'm afraid I am going to get killed. I need to learn Spanish though if I do South America. Heinlein and my co-worker who does tango have me inspired to see Argentina.
   I'm also interested in some of the skills the Nomadic RV people use to get around being domiciled in High Tax states like NJ and NY. Especially since I need health insurance as well and each state has different offerings on the exchanges. There are sites for this though. Including what to do about my USPS mail.
   I have a lot to learn in the next year. No "Into the Wild" stupidity.

   Right now I am spending about 24K inclusive of everything. This has been pretty spot on the last few years. I don't “Hard” budget but I have Mint, and I have all my expenses mapped out in a spreadsheet. I'm going to go through again and do some verification of these numbers for the last 24 months.
        I plan to work at least partI time and take in about 15-20K a year. Get me past the first few years and the Sequence of Returns Risk. At the other end I also want the 10K per year for some earned income to max the tax benefits. I may also need to work full time for 6mo to a year to get a mortgage in the future.

   FIRE Calc says I have about a 52% chance of being successful (15K earned, 15K withdrawn). I'm concerned that I am jumping the gun. I could do this job for another 2 years. I could go find another job for 2 years full time for several years part time. I'd prefer to do the part time thing instead.

   
Current Stash: 360,000

Yearly Contributions: About 50K (18K 403B, 3.3K HSA, 5.5 Roth, 24-25K After Tax)

Yearly Expenses is about 24K. I don't live very lavishly and most of my spending is on food, rent, and that's about it. No debts at this time.

I expect to have about 410K if the market stays flat, a bit more if it goes up with leaving in April/May next year.  Get the 4K (4%) match from 2016, and carry forward maximum PTO until the day I leave. Max out the 403B that year and the IRA. 

Thanks in advance.

[Libertea]

I would say it is too soon for you to retire altogether; if you follow the 4% rule, you should have savings of $600,000 to provide spending of $24,000/year.  Especially if you are planning to buy a house in the future, you really need to have more of a financial cushion since your expenses may go up when you take on the responsibilities of home ownership.  I think your idea of doing some locums or travel nurse work is a good one.  This would give you a lot of job flexibility and also allow you to travel for free while still continuing to build up your savings.

[EnjoyIt]

I'm not sure how old you are, but if you are OK working part time until your stash catches up to your desired spending level you should be OK.  If you go part time with $410K investment income, in 14 years without any further contributions it will be $800K at 5% growth.  That should be enough to get a solid mortgage covered as well.  Can you work part time to sustain your cost of living for the next 14 years so you don't have to touch your stache?  If so, you are good to go.  If all you need is $600K it will take you 8.5 years at 5% return on investments

Doing 13 week travel nursing is a great way to have free housing and higher pay while still giving you plenty of time to travel in between gigs.  Can you do that for the next 14 years (maybe less if markets cooperate or you work a bit longer.

If you wait another year and save another $50K plus growth, you should have about $480K.  With that stash you will hit $600K in under 5 years and $800K in 10.5 years.

Disclaimer:  Your rate of return may be more or less than 5%

[former player]

I think you are talking about not having a full-time permanent post and a permanent place of residence, rather than full-on fire?  You are going back out to see the world again, working your way as necessary before settling down with a mortgage in an affordable location close to family and friends?

You are highly qualified in an in-demand and worldwide-portable profession.  You have a stash of $360k as your cushion, no debt, and no people, pets or possessions you can't leave behind.  You are researching taxes and health insurance.  You've been on the road before and liked it enough to have going back on the road in mind for 15 years.

I say go for it. 

[money_bunny]

I would say it is too soon for you to retire altogether; if you follow the 4% rule, you should have savings of $600,000 to provide spending of $24,000/year.  Especially if you are planning to buy a house in the future, you really need to have more of a financial cushion since your expenses may go up when you take on the responsibilities of home ownership.  I think your idea of doing some locums or travel nurse work is a good one.  This would give you a lot of job flexibility and also allow you to travel for free while still continuing to build up your savings.

You are completely right about the 4% standard. There is a whole set of articles about the 4% rule and a thread about it in the investing section of the site. "Don't worry about the 4% rule." I'm mentioning this because it seems you are new here and have not posted a lot. I think it's a bit early and was waiting until 40, which would have me around that point. (400 + 150 + gains = about 600) So spot on. I'm willing to do that. I'm feeling pretty stagnant though.

I work primarily with severely mentally ill patients who are just barely able to stay out of the hospital. In particular abused women, and young men with first time psychosis, plus all the "Chronics" the problem is when you are expensive per hour you have to work faster. Other places it's an assembly line. I love my work, and I get good results. I have other letters in to my spiritual friends about "Obligations to a calling." I could do this until the day I die and my schedule would be full from now to 2059.

I can make enough money to cover my cost of living pretty easily. I have several side gigs. Plus the travel RN, or consulting, or teaching. I'd love to teach Nursing but the pay is garbage, and the 18-20 hours a week for a 1 credit class is not worth it.

I'm saving about 50K and not doing this to next April/May so it will be closer to 410K. That's not including hopefully 7-8% on the gains of the 360K. We hope right, especially after this first Quarter. I also renew my NP certification in January so I have 5 years from that date to decide to go back to work or not.

The property acquisition is the one hold up. But I can get another job for 6 months to show the income for the underwriting computer. There are other ways to do it if my experiences in landlording and listening to Bigger Pockets has taught me anything.

[money_bunny]

I think you are talking about not having a full-time permanent post and a permanent place of residence, rather than full-on fire?  You are going back out to see the world again, working your way as necessary before settling down with a mortgage in an affordable location close to family and friends?

You are highly qualified in an in-demand and worldwide-portable profession.  You have a stash of $360k as your cushion, no debt, and no people, pets or possessions you can't leave behind.  You are researching taxes and health insurance.  You've been on the road before and liked it enough to have going back on the road in mind for 15 years.

I say go for it.

I'm never going to "Full on FIRE" I need to be doing something. Remember the show "Touched by an Angel" I as thinking ok if Christian Heaven is like that sign me up. Ian M. Banks culture has their exploration and black ops team called Special Circumstances. Again the rest of you can go play games I am going to go be a spy. In real life MSF, other outreach, and there are very needy causes here in the USA as well.

I remarked on someone else's reply that I need 2-3 more years to hit the 4% rule. I really want to earn some money so that I don't touch the stash for the first 3-5 years. Something discussed on the finance area of the blog extensively. I just hit that sweet spot where the money starts snowballing and the compounding becomes "real" money. The longer I can go on not touching it the better.

I said above I love my field but the fact that Medicaid reimbursements and insurance have lagged our costs, and our paperwork and administrative burdens have gone up mean that we are asked to see more patients per hour.

There are so many ways to make small amounts of money that I don't think I will starve. I am thinking make about 10-20K, and then supplement. There are some big advantages due to the tax code to make some earned income every year. I already speak at conventions as the "Expert." I'd like to teach about some of this but do not want to get the CFP or similar cert.

It was 5 years not 15. Though I could blink and it will be 15 years. I drove to LA then Alaska and back. Camped everywhere. 2 1/2 months. Then got scared came back before my last semester of NP school and got a job ASAP. Then I am going to be much less likely to be able to sleep on the ground and go hiking and travelling. I never expected to live this long, and I did not expect to be in this situation or even have this option.

[Mr.Tako]

Yeah, I'm going to agree with the other posters.  It looks too soon for you to early-retire or even partially early-retire.

As for all the folks that mention the 4% rule - I'm actually not a fan.  There are a number of problems with the Trinity study, with regards to early-retirees.  I recently wrote a post about this:  http://www.mrtakoescapes.com/2016/03/11/one-big-company-why-we-like-the-3percent-rule/

I'm not telling anyone what to do here, but the 3% rule is for me.  If you were to use 3% I figure you'd need about twice the stash you have today.

[BTDretire]

If you do the 13 week gig deal, it would be very nice if you could work out some housing arrangement with each engagement. That would save you all the work of looking for housing.
   I have a friend, nurse anesthesiologist, that traveled, filling in at hospitals.

[Libertea]

You are completely right about the 4% standard. There is a whole set of articles about the 4% rule and a thread about it in the investing section of the site. "Don't worry about the 4% rule." I'm mentioning this because it seems you are new here and have not posted a lot. I think it's a bit early and was waiting until 40, which would have me around that point. (400 + 150 + gains = about 600) So spot on. I'm willing to do that. I'm feeling pretty stagnant though.

I look at the 4% rule as delineating the bare minimum you would want to have on hand for complete retirement from paid work, but it's a rule of thumb, not an absolute standard.  Particularly since you're young, a lot depends on what else you're planning to do to increase your odds of retirement success.  If your plan is to continue working FT until you reach 25x living expenses, then work PT to cover your living expenses for the next several years and just stop contributing to your retirement accounts, that is totally reasonable.  It sounds like maybe what you need is to consider changing jobs to something else that will be less stagnating, as opposed to stopping work altogether.

As for all the folks that mention the 4% rule - I'm actually not a fan.  There are a number of problems with the Trinity study, with regards to early-retirees.  I recently wrote a post about this:  http://www.mrtakoescapes.com/2016/03/11/one-big-company-why-we-like-the-3percent-rule/

Agree that the 4% rule is not a fail-safe, especially for an early retiree who never plans to earn any additional income but must fund (in the OP's case) two or even three additional decades of living expenses.  My point was that OP has not achieved 25x their expenses yet, and s/he is clearly not in a position to retire altogether at this time even according to the 4% rule.  (I'm actually surprised Firecalc gave OP as high a chance of success as it did.)  However, since OP plans to continue to work to at least cover their living expenses for a while after FI, and s/he also plans to continue to contribute to their savings until s/he does reach 25x living expenses, these two factors will significantly increase their odds of success.

[mozar]

I'm afraid I am going to get killed.

Don't drive through Mexico at night.

[money_bunny]

I'm afraid I am going to get killed.

Don't drive through Mexico at night.

I'm not an expert on Mexico by any means but I do feel that not being an easy target as one guy in a van is a valid point.

[money_bunny]

I look at the 4% rule as delineating the bare minimum you would want to have on hand for complete retirement from paid work, but it's a rule of thumb, not an absolute standard.  Particularly since you're young, a lot depends on what else you're planning to do to increase your odds of retirement success.  If your plan is to continue working FT until you reach 25x living expenses, then work PT to cover your living expenses for the next several years and just stop contributing to your retirement accounts, that is totally reasonable.  It sounds like maybe what you need is to consider changing jobs to something else that will be less stagnating, as opposed to stopping work altogether.

Agree that the 4% rule is not a fail-safe, especially for an early retiree who never plans to earn any additional income but must fund (in the OP's case) two or even three additional decades of living expenses.  My point was that OP has not achieved 25x their expenses yet, and s/he is clearly not in a position to retire altogether at this time even according to the 4% rule.  (I'm actually surprised Firecalc gave OP as high a chance of success as it did.)  However, since OP plans to continue to work to at least cover their living expenses for a while after FI, and s/he also plans to continue to contribute to their savings until s/he does reach 25x living expenses, these two factors will significantly increase their odds of success.

Three or four decades. I don't really intend to fully retire ever. I could end up disabled, but much less so with this job than at the State Institution. Thank you both for your feedback. As I said in my OP I think I am jumping the gun. I could dial back my QOL some more but I don't want to end  up not working and living in a tiny house able to do nothing.

I'm getting that because I am expecting to make at least 15K per year Earned Income. That's one 13 week contract or some other side work that I have lined up if I want it. So the FireCalc is thinking a 15K drawdown on 400K or so. Which makes more sense. (15K earned, 10-15K withdraw). 15/400 = 3.7. The first few years I would like to work to make about 20-30K take home. There has been some discussions about the sweetspot on earned income for maxing some of the tax benefits.

With what I do if I am out of the standards of practice I better have a good reason for it. Especially when the fact is I have not done it, and many of the people here have. I'll have so some more reading and get back to you all.

[jim555]

I was 49 when I left for good.  Based on your numbers I don't see how full RE can work for you.  PT work generally pays less per hour than FT, something to consider.  I would suffer it a few more years and get to better numbers.  Also the ACA may go away and by waiting you can find out what will happen.

[money_bunny]

I was 49 when I left for good.  Based on your numbers I don't see how full RE can work for you.  PT work generally pays less per hour than FT, something to consider.  I would suffer it a few more years and get to better numbers.  Also the ACA may go away and by waiting you can find out what will happen.

That is a very good point about the ACA. Didn't think of that. Thank you.