Author Topic: Bloomberg: Millennials Dreaming of Retiring at 30 Have a Math Problem  (Read 18048 times)

EnjoyIt

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Re: Bloomberg: Millennials Dreaming of Retiring at 30 Have a Math Problem
« Reply #200 on: October 10, 2018, 10:34:21 AM »
Most Americans eat fast food, drink expensive coffee, get a new cell phone every 1-2 years, and lease a new car every 3 years. Cutting those down to 50% of mustachian levels would be enough for everyone to retire earlier than 67 years old.
This is a gross generalization, and you are only about half right.

Most Americans eat fast food: Sort of.  20% of Americans eat out at fast food places once/ week.  (But 58% of Americans eat out once/ week - this # includes full service and casual dining).

Most Americans drink expensive coffee: False.  64% of Americans drink coffee, and only about 36% of them buy it out vs making at home (some do a combo).  That means approx 23% of Americans buy coffee out.

Most Americans replace cell phones every 1-2 years: True.  Average is 22.7 months.

Most Americans lease cars every 3 years: False.  The average American keeps their car for longer than ever.  New car buyers: 6.5 years.  Used car buyers: 5+ years.  The average age of cars on the road is 11.5 years.
Percentage of cars that are leased is pretty close to an all time high though: but at 33%.  Not "most".

Thanks for the very precise correction. I should change my comment to say many Americans instead of most Americans and my statement would be accurate. Either way, if people understood value better they too would have a better financial footing when contemplating or going into retirement.

talltexan

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Re: Bloomberg: Millennials Dreaming of Retiring at 30 Have a Math Problem
« Reply #201 on: October 11, 2018, 09:23:50 AM »
A big dimension ommitted from this conversation--and I do appreciate the data driven response--is what percentage of people bring their lunches from home vs. eat lunch out as part of their work routine.

bacchi

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Re: Bloomberg: Millennials Dreaming of Retiring at 30 Have a Math Problem
« Reply #202 on: October 11, 2018, 11:06:35 AM »
What were the big FIRE focused forums pre-MMM/ERE? (I'm a relative newbie, only becoming aware of the concept and the community back in 2011/2012).

More history...

E-r.org has been around since the early 2000s. Their domain name was registered in 2002 and it was definitely active in 2004.

The retireearlyhomepage.com blog was registered in 2000 and has a copyright from 1996 though there were no forums on it until fairly recently. Greaney, the owner, keeps tabs on the hypothetical "year 2000" retiree (analyzing sequence of returns risk from the dot bomb crash).

There was an ER forum on...MSN groups? Whatever the microsoft forums were. When microsoft shut them down, it migrated to...some other ER forum that I can't recall right now. Oh, probably http://www.raddr-pages.com/forums/. That site is from 2004.


MrsPete

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Re: Bloomberg: Millennials Dreaming of Retiring at 30 Have a Math Problem
« Reply #203 on: October 14, 2018, 09:52:14 AM »
The absolute worst possible outcome for someone who is "fired" is a part time job to supplement. Seems like the machine is a little pissed that we aren't all drinking the consumer cool-aid.
Disagree.  The worst possible outcome is retiring for a decade or so ... then realizing that you're running through your savings /your money isn't enough to last ... AND then being unable to return to your previous employment because in that decade the industry has "moved on".

I mean, I guess it does expose the dirty little secret that to retire extremely early, you have to have the salary to match. There's only so much cost cutting you can do.

But instead of focusing on insane goals like retiring by 30, why not examine retiring 5 years earlier? Would most average income earners be disappointed with 5 years of additional freedom?

It's not all or nothing. There are 30+ years between a retirement in your 30's and one at "traditional" retirement age.
Yes, nicely said. 

Sure, a few people can retire at 30 (more can retire in their 30s), but that does require the planets to align: Intelligence, good health, abilities that fall towards a profitable major /career, college without debt, spouse with similar traits, and an early awareness that early savings can equate to early retirement.  Possible, but not something that'll happen for the majority.  For the majority of us -- those of us for whom the planets don't align -- we can still retire earlier than society says "is appropriate", and retiring 5, 10, 15 years early is still "winning" ... even if we're already well past 30.

We were actually really, really poor when we were grad students. It's hard to work out the equivalence in today's dollars, because it's been a while, but we lived in really horrible apartments and it felt like we reeled from one car disaster to the next, and we couldn't afford to go to the dentist, and I didn't buy a single item of clothing besides shoes for about 5 years. It was for sure the experience that made me the cheap person that I am today, but I absolutely do not remember it fondly.
Yeah, I could say the same thing.  I loved college, but I was always "on the financial edge", and it was stressful.  I went to uninteresting events because they were serving food -- and sometimes I was hungry anyway.  I lived in unsafe places, and thank God nothing bad ever happened to me because of it -- some people aren't so lucky.  I didn't go to the dentist the whole time I was in college.  One semester I worked 3rd shift, then went straight to class, then went to my afternoon job.  I rarely bought anything that wasn't food -- and not being able to buy is different from choosing not to buy.  Looking back, I really don't know how I did it -- I suppose a combination of youth, stupidity, and determination -- but I don't want to live that way again.  I do not want to retire with only a minimal amount.  I want enough that I'll be comfortable in spite of inflation, in spite of emergencies.  And I never want to cut cardboard to tuck into my shoes again.

I don't think there were many blogs or forums back in the early 2000s that focused mainly on FIRE, but there were several that focused on simplifying your life, reducing consumer spending, and saving rather than being a debt ridden consumer sucka. The ability to FIRE was part of that but not always the main focus. The one I met @lhamo at was based on the concepts of the book "YMOYL" and started around 2000 or so.  Most of us who got the FIRE bug years ago found much of the info and inspiration from books or media info about early retirees.
No, no one much was reading blogs or posting on message boards in the 90s, but I read books on frugal living while I was in college in the 80s.  In the 90s I subscribed to a frual-living newsletter that came to my mailbox.  Actually, I've always loved Laura Ingalls Wilder of Little House on the Prairie fame; she was born during the Civil War, and as an adult she wrote about frugal living as a way for the average person to "get ahead"!  (Before you seek it out, know that it's not 'specially applicable to our lives today.)  The information has always been available -- just the format has changed. 

My goal back in college, when I became interested in the topic, wasn't early retirement -- and that still isn't my prime goal -- rather, my goal was to manage my money so I'd have a comfortable financial life, not a chaotic do-without home like the one in which I was raised.  The idea of a comfortable retirement was already important to me in college, but I was already past 30 when it occurred to me I could retire early and comfortable. 

Most Americans eat fast food: Sort of.  20% of Americans eat out at fast food places once/ week.  (But 58% of Americans eat out once/ week - this # includes full service and casual dining).
This doesn't ring true to me.  As I walk into work every morning, I'd estimate 20% of the high school students and 10% of the teachers are toting a cup from a fast food place.  And that's just breakfast.  I hear LOTS of people talking about having gone out to dinner the night before /eating leftovers from styrofoam containers.  On the rare occasion I pick up fast food for dinner, I'm always amazed at the lines. 

I wonder if these numbers are from a self-reported survey.  I suspect most people would choose to downplay how often they eat fast food.  Regardless, I suspect the average American eats fast food more than once a week.

mm1970

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Re: Bloomberg: Millennials Dreaming of Retiring at 30 Have a Math Problem
« Reply #204 on: October 15, 2018, 11:00:03 AM »
Quote
Quote from: mm1970 on October 08, 2018, 10:41:06 AM
Most Americans eat fast food: Sort of.  20% of Americans eat out at fast food places once/ week.  (But 58% of Americans eat out once/ week - this # includes full service and casual dining).
This doesn't ring true to me.  As I walk into work every morning, I'd estimate 20% of the high school students and 10% of the teachers are toting a cup from a fast food place.  And that's just breakfast.  I hear LOTS of people talking about having gone out to dinner the night before /eating leftovers from styrofoam containers.  On the rare occasion I pick up fast food for dinner, I'm always amazed at the lines. 

I wonder if these numbers are from a self-reported survey.  I suspect most people would choose to downplay how often they eat fast food.  Regardless, I suspect the average American eats fast food more than once a week.

I just googled.  Mostly it's from nation-wide polls, though I can't find the particular combination of statistical sites that I'd found last week.

One thing to note is that the the frequency of eating out / fast food is much higher for the younger population - so particularly teenagers to late-20's, they eat out a lot.

marty998

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Re: Bloomberg: Millennials Dreaming of Retiring at 30 Have a Math Problem
« Reply #205 on: October 15, 2018, 02:35:49 PM »
Most Americans eat fast food, drink expensive coffee, get a new cell phone every 1-2 years, and lease a new car every 3 years. Cutting those down to 50% of mustachian levels would be enough for everyone to retire earlier than 67 years old.
This is a gross generalization, and you are only about half right.

Most Americans eat fast food: Sort of.  20% of Americans eat out at fast food places once/ week.  (But 58% of Americans eat out once/ week - this # includes full service and casual dining).

Most Americans drink expensive coffee: False.  64% of Americans drink coffee, and only about 36% of them buy it out vs making at home (some do a combo).  That means approx 23% of Americans buy coffee out.

Most Americans replace cell phones every 1-2 years: True.  Average is 22.7 months.

Most Americans lease cars every 3 years: False.  The average American keeps their car for longer than ever.  New car buyers: 6.5 years.  Used car buyers: 5+ years.  The average age of cars on the road is 11.5 years.
Percentage of cars that are leased is pretty close to an all time high though: but at 33%.  Not "most".

Curious to know if the stats change if you reduce the sample space to working age population only. For example take out the 90 year old coffee drinkers, or the 12 year old McDonalds eaters.... or do these stats already adjust for that?