Author Topic: Are you a coward?  (Read 31056 times)

TheOldestYoungMan

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #100 on: September 19, 2016, 02:14:43 PM »
this thread does make me wonder if there are sites/blogs devoted precisely to the idea of software entrepreneurship. i.e. the mrmoneymustache of software entrepreneurship.

The Millionaire Fastlane.

Read the book.

They have forums, too, but start with the book.

The title is SO gimmicky, but the book is really good.  If I wanted to start a business to make 10 million dollars by 2-3 years from now, having already read it, the first thing I'd do is read it a second time, today, and then read it again tomorrow.   :P

Excellent advice.  Even further, study the topic, as there are many fantastic books and human resources available for would be entrepreneurs to improve their chances of success.

I actually majored in Entrepreneurial Management as one of my undergraduate degrees at [insert famous business school].  Computer science engineering was my other undergrad degree, so I pretty much studied hundreds of cases relevant to the OP during my 4 years as an undergrad.  At the time I studied, it was not broadly known locally that the school offered a night school open to almost anyone.  The classes were aimed at local business people, and often would grant free tuition to lower income struggling entrepreneurs, especially if minority owned businesses.  A lot of these folks might not normally have access to a basic business education topics (basic accounting, people management, legal studies, etc.).

We had an entrepreneurial management club that also gave free advice from students (some of the top business minds of the future at the time) and helped worthy entrepreneurs for free.  The club also gave Donald Trump an award in 1984 and I met him, but don't hold that against us.  We did some good work.

As Arebelspy suggests, study of the topic (how to successfully start and grow a business), education, and partnerships with people of complimentary skill sets can seriously improve the odds of success.  One of the best skills to have is the ability to admit and learn from mistakes.  Some of the arrogance shown in some posts, suggests the wrong mentality for a successful entrepreneur.  You need to be stubborn in the right way, not hard headed.

Motivated people can find the resources they need.  I agree with the OP in that that the barriers to starting a business have never been lower (historically).  It is incredible that individuals can source services affordable only to the IBMs of the world as recently as the 90s now via shared services.

That said, business is brutal in a capitalist society. It is naive to think that anything or any great idea that is making money won't be replicated, stolen, taken over or manipulated.  I personally have filed successful patents on ideas that should have made fortunes for my co-entrepreneurs,  only to have them challenged by armies of attorneys, ideas stolen and used without compensation, threats, etc.

Business can be a brutal war field and young folks are often naive about how to get those millions into their own pocket. As wisely posted earlier in the thread, choosing not to enter a battlefield where thousands are killed, could be called cowardice.  However, those calling you a coward may be using you to do their dirty work for themselves too.

Good luck...I am retiring and leaving it to the ambitious young to go for it.

OK...but where is this pizza we were promised?

TheOldestYoungMan

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #101 on: September 19, 2016, 04:26:38 PM »


I understand your underlying sentiment, but the simple fact is the OP claims there's effectively guaranteed success and anyone can be a multimillionaire in a year if they aren't afraid to try.  You know as well as I do that is not the case.

She really doesn't though.  But lets say Cathy has been paying attention and sees the average person who is going to understand the whole FIRE mentality and recognizes that we have a couple of built-in things that would have given us an edge had we gone down that route.  Namely a clearer understanding of how costs affects outcomes.

I've read the original question a dozen times now and I really don't get where your interpretation comes from.  The original question simply posits that such success is possible: "in 1-3 years"

And it is.  It isn't guaranteed.  Neither is any other path.  Both rely on some pretty simple principles holding true.  Lets say start to finish (idea, use up capital, fail to capitalize) takes 6 months.  If you spent 6 months acquiring capital, and 6 months trying to win with an idea, you'd get 3 tries at greatness in 3 years.

Most of us didn't even take the one try.  I just read the OP again, and I don't see this:

If you tried to go wantrepreneur you'd be rich within a year.

I do see:
"I can think of plenty of methods with a reasonable (but uncertain) probability of earning multiple millions of dollars in a far shorter time frame (say, less than a year)."

I don't see: It will definitely happen.  It will take less than a year.

Do you see how you rigidly applying the second line to the first is what is causing your hangup?  What she wrote doesn't say what you think it says.  If you ascribe to "reasonable" a value different from what she was thinking, that is where the disharmony started.  What I'd wager for $1mil depends entirely on risk, and what her actual point was (forgive me if I'm miss-stating Cathy) is that the risk (chance of failure) is actually somewhat exaggerated.

And given a group of people with (based on what MMM has published about his reader demographics) above average training and education, particularly in the technical fields like engineering and computer science, as well as above average skills when it comes to personal finances and frugality, we wouldn't fall into the same bucket as "everyone."  A barely literate high school drop-out whose "big ass bikes" motorcycle shop he started in his garage, that folded due to a zoning ordinance legal issue, has no bearing on the success of my start up.  So a claim that the risk is exaggerated isn't entirely without merit, simply because IT IS.  The statistics thrown around for "number of small businesses that fail" invariably include incredibly stupid people incapable of a basic assessment of risk that MMMers are capable of (self-selected for failure) as well as a huge group of con-artists and assholes who serial-fail.  Which is to say, they start businesses they KNOW won't make money and just ride the salary they pay themselves until the business folds (oilfield services contractors is one example I know of personally).  Number one reason new businesses fail?  They run out of money.  As in, they spend too much money.  As in, not a problem with this group of people (for the most part).

The overall success rate of the average business start up isn't a valid statistical datapoint when the control differs so radically from the test group.

If you truly believe that it is, congratulations.  You demonstrate the means and methods by which YOU were convinced that you couldn't hack it independently.  The machine that turns out drones worked on you (as it did on me).

And now I'm off to netflix and chill, instead of working on my novel, because damnit, I'm in no hurry.

JLee

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #102 on: September 19, 2016, 05:06:18 PM »


I understand your underlying sentiment, but the simple fact is the OP claims there's effectively guaranteed success and anyone can be a multimillionaire in a year if they aren't afraid to try.  You know as well as I do that is not the case.

She really doesn't though.  But lets say Cathy has been paying attention and sees the average person who is going to understand the whole FIRE mentality and recognizes that we have a couple of built-in things that would have given us an edge had we gone down that route.  Namely a clearer understanding of how costs affects outcomes.

I've read the original question a dozen times now and I really don't get where your interpretation comes from.  The original question simply posits that such success is possible: "in 1-3 years"

And it is.  It isn't guaranteed.  Neither is any other path.  Both rely on some pretty simple principles holding true.  Lets say start to finish (idea, use up capital, fail to capitalize) takes 6 months.  If you spent 6 months acquiring capital, and 6 months trying to win with an idea, you'd get 3 tries at greatness in 3 years.

Most of us didn't even take the one try.  I just read the OP again, and I don't see this:

If you tried to go wantrepreneur you'd be rich within a year.

I do see:
"I can think of plenty of methods with a reasonable (but uncertain) probability of earning multiple millions of dollars in a far shorter time frame (say, less than a year)."

I don't see: It will definitely happen.  It will take less than a year.

Do you see how you rigidly applying the second line to the first is what is causing your hangup?  What she wrote doesn't say what you think it says.  If you ascribe to "reasonable" a value different from what she was thinking, that is where the disharmony started.  What I'd wager for $1mil depends entirely on risk, and what her actual point was (forgive me if I'm miss-stating Cathy) is that the risk (chance of failure) is actually somewhat exaggerated.

And given a group of people with (based on what MMM has published about his reader demographics) above average training and education, particularly in the technical fields like engineering and computer science, as well as above average skills when it comes to personal finances and frugality, we wouldn't fall into the same bucket as "everyone."  A barely literate high school drop-out whose "big ass bikes" motorcycle shop he started in his garage, that folded due to a zoning ordinance legal issue, has no bearing on the success of my start up.  So a claim that the risk is exaggerated isn't entirely without merit, simply because IT IS.  The statistics thrown around for "number of small businesses that fail" invariably include incredibly stupid people incapable of a basic assessment of risk that MMMers are capable of (self-selected for failure) as well as a huge group of con-artists and assholes who serial-fail.  Which is to say, they start businesses they KNOW won't make money and just ride the salary they pay themselves until the business folds (oilfield services contractors is one example I know of personally).  Number one reason new businesses fail?  They run out of money.  As in, they spend too much money.  As in, not a problem with this group of people (for the most part).

The overall success rate of the average business start up isn't a valid statistical datapoint when the control differs so radically from the test group.

If you truly believe that it is, congratulations.  You demonstrate the means and methods by which YOU were convinced that you couldn't hack it independently.  The machine that turns out drones worked on you (as it did on me).

And now I'm off to netflix and chill, instead of working on my novel, because damnit, I'm in no hurry.

The OP's initial premise was greater-than-50% success rate per attempt, with an implied attempt timeframe of under one year. Repeat that a few times and it's effectively guaranteed. The example was a $50k outlay for $5mil return with 50% probability of success -- the odds of not coming out at least $3mil ahead are incredibly small ($2mil expense at $50k per attempt, 40 attempts...chances of failure are one in 1,099,511,600,000?).

I agree that the MMM audience likely has a far higher probability of success than the average person.  Whether that success is due to more efficient business operations, or fewer people starting businesses that are doomed from the beginning...who's to say?  I would expect a bit from each column.

Yes, it's possible...but unless you have that brilliant idea at just the right time, I don't believe the chances are that great.

I'd love to be wrong - please, prove it to me...

arebelspy

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #103 on: September 19, 2016, 05:56:36 PM »


I'd love to be wrong - please, prove it to me...

This is a general comment to the idea of "prove it," so please don't reply with anything about video games.  :)

How would you propose to do that?

There's no logical, analytical proof, so it has to be empirical.

But then the excuses come about how that's the outlier, or a single anecdote, or whatever. 

Whenever we're told something is impossible,  and then do it, the complainypants excuses start. We see it ALL THE TIME in the ER community.

A Yahoo article is posted about some blogger that ER'd, and the excuses come in: they didn't have kids,  or they didn't live in an expensive area like I do, or they made way more money, or whatever.

And if you were "REALLY in this situation, you couldn't do it". And it gets no true scotsman'd

Like the wife and I get told that you can't retire on teacher's salaries by 30.  Yet we did it. "Oh, well... (start the excuses, e.g. No kids,  "got lucky with real estate," etc.)"

One other thing to do,  instead of insist people prove difficult things to you is you go do them,  and prove them to yourself. :)
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
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ender

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #104 on: September 19, 2016, 06:03:54 PM »
I think the big thing that I am taking away from this thread is analyzing my desire to take risks.

Regardless of the "hit it big!" assumption here, I do agree that the near certainty of "work highish paying job for years then FIRE" is appealing enough that I will not take risks which might jeopardize it -- or greatly enhance this.

This might be as simple as not pursuing career opportunities purely out of "fear" of the unknown, or otherwise, but those opportunities might greatly improve my income and make my ability to FIRE even easier. Or not, but a decent chunk of cash allows those decisions a lot more easily than otherwise just choosing the "easy" route.

JLee

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #105 on: September 19, 2016, 08:39:57 PM »


I'd love to be wrong - please, prove it to me...

This is a general comment to the idea of "prove it," so please don't reply with anything about video games.  :)

How would you propose to do that?

There's no logical, analytical proof, so it has to be empirical.

But then the excuses come about how that's the outlier, or a single anecdote, or whatever. 

Whenever we're told something is impossible,  and then do it, the complainypants excuses start. We see it ALL THE TIME in the ER community.

A Yahoo article is posted about some blogger that ER'd, and the excuses come in: they didn't have kids,  or they didn't live in an expensive area like I do, or they made way more money, or whatever.

And if you were "REALLY in this situation, you couldn't do it". And it gets no true scotsman'd

Like the wife and I get told that you can't retire on teacher's salaries by 30.  Yet we did it. "Oh, well... (start the excuses, e.g. No kids,  "got lucky with real estate," etc.)"

One other thing to do,  instead of insist people prove difficult things to you is you go do them,  and prove them to yourself. :)

I agree, but that's a fundamentally different argument.  ER on a low salary can be proven empirically through math. The ability to generate millions of dollars in an incredibly short timeframe is much more variable - it requires the alignment of far more factors than simply "reduce your expenses to X while earning Y and you will achieve Z."

The premise of the OP is that anyone can become rich by being courageous.  There's far more to it than that. The right idea at the right place at the right time, with the right amount of luck and dedication is one thing.  Generating circumstances on demand to reliably make you a millionaire in a year?  I don't buy it.

PizzaSteve

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #106 on: September 20, 2016, 08:59:43 AM »
Once upon a time, I wondered why everyone didn't want to be self-employed. Why would I work for $25-$40 per hour at a CPA firm when I could start my own firm and realize $50-$200/hour on my work, and have the benefit of a better schedule, better clients, and better working conditions? Why doesn't everyone become self employed??

But now that I specialize in small business clients, I realize that the vast majority of people are very bad business-people.

One particularly frustrating fault from a MMM perspective is that a good 50% of people with excellent and profitable businesses spend all of the business' money on bull$##!. It shouldn't surprise you to learn that this is the case. The same people who have trouble managing their personal budget also have trouble managing their business budget. What is a need and what is a want? They don't know.

Many people have great ideas and work ethic, but no mind for accounting - so they just work work work - and have no clue what they make. How can you make good business decisions if you don't know what your profit margin is? I recently dealt with a client who bid huge projects, had great reviews, but when we finally caught up with his numbers, it turned out that very few jobs that he had completed had been profitable. But since he didn't know that (he thought hard work and skill was all you needed!), he was never able to adapt his bid process or job process. By the time he found out, debt caught up with him and he folded.

Another common mistake is starting a business that's capital intensive. They invest a huge amount in starting the business, without realizing that it will take YEARS of normal profits to pay off their initial investment. There's no analysis of the opportunity cost of spending that money on the front end. I have clients who have invested $200,000+ in businesses and they're happy to gross $50,000 in profit, while working full time at the business (only after years of grossing considerably less). By the time they realize they'd have been better off clocking in for someone else 9-5, it's too late.

Then there are the people who start businesses that just don't sell what people want. There's no thriving market for what they have. They've bought into this fantasy that you get rich by starting a business... but failed to recognize that you have to have a good idea, or a marketable skill first.

Then there's the whole gamut of people who are just plain average workers. Maybe they're poor leaders, or lazy, or not self-starters. Maybe they thrive when people tell them what to do, not when they have to figure it out themselves. Maybe they don't want to commit themselves 24/7 to work, and would rather just commit 9-5, Mon-Fri.

If they recognize this in themselves, then they're not being cowardly, they're being wise.

5 * review for this post.  Very accurate to my experience as well. 

[edited out personal details not directly necessary for thread]
« Last Edit: September 29, 2016, 04:11:15 PM by PizzaSteve »

.22guy

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #107 on: September 20, 2016, 01:38:29 PM »
To get a million dollars, all you need to do is rob a few banks, six or seven tops. You can be FI in a week or less. Sure, you might get shot and/or arrested by the police but anyone who doesn't do this is a coward!

dividendman

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #108 on: September 20, 2016, 01:49:23 PM »
To get a million dollars, all you need to do is rob a few banks, six or seven tops. You can be FI in a week or less. Sure, you might get shot and/or arrested by the police but anyone who doesn't do this is a coward!

Please provide some data to back up this assertion.

From my understanding, the average bank robbery yields < $20k (a quick google search shows this in FBI crime statistics). This means that you need to successfully rob around 50 banks, not the "six or seven tops" you claim.

Average armored car robberies, on the other hand, yield hundreds of thousands, so that would more accurately be "six or seven tops".

Please provide accurate data when suggesting a business venture to this forum that correctly weighs the risks and rewards.

.22guy

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #109 on: September 20, 2016, 05:46:55 PM »
To get a million dollars, all you need to do is rob a few banks, six or seven tops. You can be FI in a week or less. Sure, you might get shot and/or arrested by the police but anyone who doesn't do this is a coward!

Please provide some data to back up this assertion.

From my understanding, the average bank robbery yields < $20k (a quick google search shows this in FBI crime statistics). This means that you need to successfully rob around 50 banks, not the "six or seven tops" you claim.

Average armored car robberies, on the other hand, yield hundreds of thousands, so that would more accurately be "six or seven tops".

Please provide accurate data when suggesting a business venture to this forum that correctly weighs the risks and rewards.

You just gotta take more money than that.  It's easy if you try.  Anything else is just cowardly. :)

TheOldestYoungMan

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #110 on: September 22, 2016, 01:17:55 PM »


I'd love to be wrong - please, prove it to me...

This is a general comment to the idea of "prove it," so please don't reply with anything about video games.  :)

How would you propose to do that?

There's no logical, analytical proof, so it has to be empirical.

But then the excuses come about how that's the outlier, or a single anecdote, or whatever. 

Whenever we're told something is impossible,  and then do it, the complainypants excuses start. We see it ALL THE TIME in the ER community.

A Yahoo article is posted about some blogger that ER'd, and the excuses come in: they didn't have kids,  or they didn't live in an expensive area like I do, or they made way more money, or whatever.

And if you were "REALLY in this situation, you couldn't do it". And it gets no true scotsman'd

Like the wife and I get told that you can't retire on teacher's salaries by 30.  Yet we did it. "Oh, well... (start the excuses, e.g. No kids,  "got lucky with real estate," etc.)"

One other thing to do,  instead of insist people prove difficult things to you is you go do them,  and prove them to yourself. :)

I could've argued as coherently and succinctly as this but I'm not retired with all that free time arebelspy has.  It has nothing to do with a general reluctance to think about what I'm trying to say before I say it.  It's the circumstances you understand.  Clearly constructing an argument so well is impossible for the average person, I can't believe he took so much risk in trying to formulate something that clearly isn't possible.

mm1970

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #111 on: September 22, 2016, 01:38:14 PM »
To get a million dollars, all you need to do is rob a few banks, six or seven tops. You can be FI in a week or less. Sure, you might get shot and/or arrested by the police but anyone who doesn't do this is a coward!
Or, be a druggie.  One of my coworkers was telling me recently about a HS friend who was selling drugs, dropping out of school, ended up in jail, etc. etc. etc.

But now is a millionaire because he grows marijuana (legally) for medical marijuana.  He stuck with what he knew!

GuitarStv

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #112 on: September 22, 2016, 03:55:43 PM »
To get a million dollars, all you need to do is rob a few banks, six or seven tops. You can be FI in a week or less. Sure, you might get shot and/or arrested by the police but anyone who doesn't do this is a coward!
Or, be a druggie.  One of my coworkers was telling me recently about a HS friend who was selling drugs, dropping out of school, ended up in jail, etc. etc. etc.

But now is a millionaire because he grows marijuana (legally) for medical marijuana.  He stuck with what he knew!

My understanding is that illegal drug dealing doesn't pay very well for most.

https://www.ted.com/talks/steven_levitt_analyzes_crack_economics?language=en

I'm glad your friend was able to leverage his strengths into success!

BTDretire

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #113 on: September 22, 2016, 04:08:37 PM »
I have a neighbor young man 22 years old, he studied programming and has a job doing that.
One day he said all I need to do is develop one app and I'll have it made. I'm sure he meant one successful app.
 I didn't dampen his enthusiasm, but I likened it to getting a $2,000,000 professional football contract. Yes it happens, but not to a very high percentage of people.

tonysemail

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #114 on: September 22, 2016, 04:16:15 PM »
I agree, but that's a fundamentally different argument.  ER on a low salary can be proven empirically through math. The ability to generate millions of dollars in an incredibly short timeframe is much more variable - it requires the alignment of far more factors than simply "reduce your expenses to X while earning Y and you will achieve Z."

The premise of the OP is that anyone can become rich by being courageous.  There's far more to it than that. The right idea at the right place at the right time, with the right amount of luck and dedication is one thing.  Generating circumstances on demand to reliably make you a millionaire in a year?  I don't buy it.

This is the right take away. 
It's a numbers game where the odds are against you.

How is this example any different than the choice of buying stock indices vs picking individual companies?
If you are so talented and driven, then start your own hedge fund!

I think cowardice may fit some people, but not everyone.
those who disagree with the premiuse of 'favorable odds' will rationally choose NOT to play the game.
that's simply showing humility.

GetItRight

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #115 on: September 22, 2016, 05:34:11 PM »
Yes, though I prefer the term "risk averse".

Me too. Cowardice is one way of looking at it, but I tend to have a low tolerance for risk. Namely the result of the financial ruin that came from going to college. Huge mistake that I'm still paying for and only many years later starting to recover from.

arebelspy

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #116 on: September 22, 2016, 06:23:07 PM »
I could've argued as coherently and succinctly as this but I'm not retired with all that free time arebelspy has.  It has nothing to do with a general reluctance to think about what I'm trying to say before I say it.  It's the circumstances you understand.  Clearly constructing an argument so well is impossible for the average person, I can't believe he took so much risk in trying to formulate something that clearly isn't possible.

It took me a minute to see what you were doing.  Well played.  :)
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
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obstinate

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #117 on: September 25, 2016, 12:47:38 AM »
Whenever we're told something is impossible,  and then do it, the complainypants excuses start. We see it ALL THE TIME in the ER community.
OK. But nobody has taken a cohort of 20-40 talented, driven people, given them each 50k, and measured their likelihood of success. I think we all know what the outcome of that experiment would be. Even in the most selective scenarios, like Y-Combinator, the probability of success is nowhere near 50%.

There are two categories of things under discussion here:
  • Things people say are impossible, which actually are. (E.g. the premise of this post.)
  • Things people say are impossible, which are not. (E.g. FIRE)
Just because some things exist in the second category does not mean that the first is an empty set. I believe with a high confidence that the first category contains OP's idea. I'm not prepared to invest the money required to run the experiment, but am happy to make significant bets on the outcome of the experiment if someone else wants to run it.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2016, 12:49:55 AM by obstinate »

arebelspy

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #118 on: September 25, 2016, 01:02:24 AM »
No, I don't think the odds of success are near 50%. We've already debunked that, and already discussed how it's irrelevant to this thread.  Regardless, that doesn't mean the OP's premise of one ERing earlier through risk taking entrepreneurship isn't valid.

I believe many more people become millionaires within a few years from entrepreneurship than the number of people who ER before 30 on a working class salary by living frugally, and investing 75%+ of their salary. 

Both are unlikely. Neither is impossible.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

SnackDog

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #119 on: September 25, 2016, 02:04:44 AM »
The idea presented falls in the general category of "what would you do if you were guaranteed not to fail?"  We should all examine our lives and see if some aspect of fear of failure is holding us back from our true potential. The applications of this are very broad from starting a business, asking someone hot for a date, or trying for a promotion at work.

One can mitigate the risks of entrepreneurship by having a steady job at the same time or marrying someone who has same. I know a girl from college who married a complete slacker. She was responsible and hard working with a professional 9-5 job. He was an irresponsible skater, ski bum and weed smoker who was good looking and good in the bed. We hated him and felt she could do better. One day he got so bored he started a coupon web site. This was about 1999. In 2000 he sold it for $20 million. Back to skating and skiing and weed. If he was more motivated he would probably be a billionaire, not just a millionaire.

It may appear easy to get rich off the internet and we may all have examples of people who did. But most of those shortcuts involve either a great deal more skill or vastly more luck than you realize. There is a reason there are so few Musks and Jobs - they have very unique combinations of technical ability and business sense and drive and inability to fear failure.

ender

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #120 on: September 25, 2016, 08:38:39 AM »
No, I don't think the odds of success are near 50%. We've already debunked that, and already discussed how it's irrelevant to this thread.  Regardless, that doesn't mean the OP's premise of one ERing earlier through risk taking entrepreneurship isn't valid.

I believe many more people become millionaires within a few years from entrepreneurship than the number of people who ER before 30 on a working class salary by living frugally, and investing 75%+ of their salary. 

Both are unlikely. Neither is impossible.

One thing to keep in mind is that the number of people who legitimately and intentionally pursue the goal of becoming a millionaire quickly though entrepreneurship is fairly low. People are risk averse, which means the "slow(er) but steady" route is fairly desirable.

Just look at this thread - a large number of intelligent people are writing this idea off immediately.

Making it a binary millionaire/non-millionaire also ignores whether or not you still are better off pursuing this route. For me, personally, the takeaway of this thread is more "how can I increase my income by $50k/year in the next 5 years?" which will less ambitious, is still a fairly ambitious goal.

There is a reason there are so few Musks and Jobs - they have very unique combinations of technical ability and business sense and drive and inability to fear failure.

You don't need to aim to be Must or Jobs. There are many very successful people who have nowhere near their successes.

I think this is partially why people are so quick to write this sort of idea off. People see, "oh, I could never be <insert 0.0001% level of success> entrepreneur" and don't realize that they don't have to aim to be them. You don't have to create multi-billion dollar companies in order to be successful, particularly if your goal is ER.

Rife

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #121 on: September 25, 2016, 09:19:13 AM »
This is an interesting thread. I completed a degree in comp sci last year (100% paid for by employer) and am spending most of my free time learning everything needed to produce a web game that can generate some traffic and a bit of side income while also getting valuable experience. What I find most interesting is my timeframe to "build skills" is five years because by then I will be FI enough to be able to devote full time if it takes off.

I think the timeframe is very optimistic unless you are already well down the path. Yes, I know other talented people who can help out but that also carries the risk that they will want their cut later. A common mistake is giving away too much percent early on and have nothing left when really needed(Schilling did this). Schilling also greatly underestimated the time and money involved.

Now, I like my day job and it pays 90k a year. Until I feel confident in my chance of success in full time app/web design I won't quit unless I am otherwise FI. The biggest barrier I think for most people is lack of leadership skills and business knowledge. They can code, but struggle when not following someone else, and produce things that obviously lack appeal even though it may be technically coded well under the hood.

I will admit a few things:

 I underestimated how much I still didn't know when you have to put out the full product from start to finish.Most projects by hobbiests go unfinished, and never gain the business experience.

Also, I am afraid of having my work and ideas stolen. I know a guy who has run a web game for 20 years. His first game has been running for 23 cause it was stolen from him when he brought in someone to help monetize it. Even more common is that if I can do it at home then a software company with full time employees can also. They could simply make their own version of the same thing.

That leads to my last concern, the market gets flooded. Yes some hit it big, but my research suggests it is hard these days to get people to pay for software. They can normally get stuff free. Having players does not mean lots of money.

Also, I am justifying the time I spend in part cause I can sell my services later to someone else if my business never takes off ;).

So, I am working toward my own company but in a risk adverse way for the above reasons. I won't be quitting my job or investing thousands until I feel my odds of success are higher. Starting from nothing, the timeframe to me is what is too optimistic. If you have lots of relevant experience then that is different.

BlueMR2

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #122 on: September 25, 2016, 11:45:13 AM »
I've played the startup game.  The market is flooded, especially in IT.  Out of all the people (most way smarter than me) that I've met in the game, none of them are making big money.  A handful are able to make a middle class living while expending 1.5-2x the amount of time at it that I do.  Pretty much all the rest ended up back at work for someone else, but now with a lot less time left and more debt.

Based on the amount of garbage products that make it and the excellent products that fail, even with extreme marketing efforts I also have to say that most of success is sheer dumb luck.  Obviously you need to put out the effort in the first place.  If not, just throw your money out the window now.  However, *after* all that effort, you're down to a minuscule chance of success from the dumb luck of your app rotating on a screen when just the right person (that you don't even know is the right person) sees it, bumping into just the right person at the perfect time at that startup party, etc.

I'd say you have a better chance of timing the market as a success plan.  Don't be a startup unless that's the life you want to live.  As get rich quick scheme, I'll pass.

MrsPete

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #123 on: September 25, 2016, 06:49:33 PM »
I think you might be a coward.

We all know that if you live in the United States, it's relatively easy to retire at or before age 30 so long as you (a) choose a lucrative career, (b) maximise your wage-earning potential within that lucrative career, and then (c) put in your hours of slavery toiling beneath your landowning overlords.
No, it's not relatively easy to retire before 30.  People on this board tend to be above-average in intelligence, but this board does not represent the world as a whole.  Consider the general public; what percentage would you say are capable of earning a high wage?  I'd guess 20% -- and not all of the 20% put forth maximum effort to do so.

Don't get me wrong -- it's totally possible to retire early; I'm not arguing that at all!  But it take an intelligent person, and that person must have a plan, the necessary self-discipline, and even a bit of luck -- and only a fairly small percentage of people can manage that by 30.  Cowards or not. 
 

arebelspy

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #124 on: September 25, 2016, 06:54:15 PM »


[Early Retirement takes] an intelligent person, and that person must have a plan, the necessary self-discipline, and even a bit of luck -- and only a fairly small percentage of people can manage that by 30.

Only a few manage it, but how available it is depends on your view of free will. All of those things seem to be available to pretty much everyone.

It may not be easy for most, or common, but possible for almost anyone (at least born in the US today, and maybe a few other places at a minimum).

See:
http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/07/08/early-retirement-cant-work-or-id-have-heard-of-it-before/
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

Johnez

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #125 on: September 26, 2016, 04:40:06 AM »
My original reply was "durr that's unpossible," then I remembered YouTube. There are actual ordinary people making a living off of videos. Yeah I'm sure it's harder than it looks, but damn there is some massive opportunity there. Some people that have grown followings: Casey Neistat, DIY King Joey, Matt Ogus. These guys range from niche experts in their particular hobby to massive international stars. These examples are few, but even if I were to rattle off a hundred names I bet there's room for a thousand more. With side businesses, books, merch, ad deals, etc. the opportunities are endless, I doubt the surface has even been scratched.

Point is, if the first thought was "that can't happen," time to suspend that thought and actually open up. Don't have to be a Bezos, Gates, Musk, or Walton-being a hundredth as successful is good enough. In a world full of burger chains, I mean literally almost every corner of this earth has either a McD's, Burger King, Wendy's, Jack in the Box, or Carl's Junior...somehow In n Out do just fine.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2016, 04:48:15 AM by Johnez »

MrsPete

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #126 on: September 28, 2016, 04:25:06 PM »


[Early Retirement takes] an intelligent person, and that person must have a plan, the necessary self-discipline, and even a bit of luck -- and only a fairly small percentage of people can manage that by 30.

Only a few manage it, but how available it is depends on your view of free will. All of those things seem to be available to pretty much everyone.

It may not be easy for most, or common, but possible for almost anyone (at least born in the US today, and maybe a few other places at a minimum).

See:
http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/07/08/early-retirement-cant-work-or-id-have-heard-of-it-before/
I disagree.  To retire by 30, the planets must align for you:  You pretty much must be born smart and healthy, have some support to get through school without debt, must have a skill set oriented towards a profession that pays better than average, and must realize the possibility of early retirement early.  I mean, really, we're talking about a one-decade career or less.  To make that happen, you have to be on top of your game.  Remember, half the American population is below average!  :)

On the other hand, if you say that pretty much everyone could do better at saving for retirement and could retire earlier than expected -- yeah, I'll agree with that.  And if you lengthen the time frame -- I don't know, to 40, 45, 50 ? -- I'd agree.  But making this happen by 30 really requires a number of things to go right. 

Paul der Krake

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #127 on: September 28, 2016, 04:51:40 PM »
I disagree.  To retire by 30, the planets must align for you:  You pretty much must be born smart and healthy, have some support to get through school without debt, must have a skill set oriented towards a profession that pays better than average, and must realize the possibility of early retirement early. 
And we owe MMM and the early retirement blogosphere decades of our lives for opening our eyes to the possibility. They came up with the light bulb,  all we're doing here is screwing it in and flipping the switch.

arebelspy

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #128 on: September 28, 2016, 11:12:50 PM »




[Early Retirement takes] an intelligent person, and that person must have a plan, the necessary self-discipline, and even a bit of luck -- and only a fairly small percentage of people can manage that by 30.

Only a few manage it, but how available it is depends on your view of free will. All of those things seem to be available to pretty much everyone.

It may not be easy for most, or common, but possible for almost anyone (at least born in the US today, and maybe a few other places at a minimum).

See:
http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/07/08/early-retirement-cant-work-or-id-have-heard-of-it-before/
I disagree.  To retire by 30, the planets must align for you:  You pretty much must be born smart and healthy, have some support to get through school without debt, must have a skill set oriented towards a profession that pays better than average, and must realize the possibility of early retirement early.  I mean, really, we're talking about a one-decade career or less.  To make that happen, you have to be on top of your game.  Remember, half the American population is below average!  :)

On the other hand, if you say that pretty much everyone could do better at saving for retirement and could retire earlier than expected -- yeah, I'll agree with that.  And if you lengthen the time frame -- I don't know, to 40, 45, 50 ? -- I'd agree.  But making this happen by 30 really requires a number of things to go right.

The description I bolded fits millions of people.

But yes, I agree that if you extend it to 40-50, it becomes available for the majority, not just select (again, in the US today caveat).
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

dragoncar

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #129 on: September 29, 2016, 01:21:42 AM »
if only we knew then what we know now

It's too late for me not to retire on a wage, but maybe I'll get rich with the freedom FI has given me

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #130 on: September 29, 2016, 12:58:32 PM »
It's too late for me not to retire on a wage, but maybe I'll get rich with the freedom FI has given me

There is a fundamental problem with only having this one term, Financially Independent, for a thing that means everything from 'I think I have enough to squeak by until eligible for social securty' up to having to consider how to handle one's dynastic wealth.  Or maybe you're alluding to the First Retire Then Get Rich article, which seemed to imply that you cannot help but end up "rich" if you retire early (which I personally found to be a bit of a stretch, judging by other blogs that are more financially transparent and more marginally successful).  Of course, getting rich can mean all sorts of different things also - you could just as easily 'get rich' by taking your barebones stash to a LCOL country.  But my point, in the context of this thread, is that a person that reached FI a decade or more before 55, which is 'officially' considered to be early retirement, should not considered themself a coward.

dragoncar

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #131 on: September 29, 2016, 02:56:49 PM »
It's too late for me not to retire on a wage, but maybe I'll get rich with the freedom FI has given me

There is a fundamental problem with only having this one term, Financially Independent, for a thing that means everything from 'I think I have enough to squeak by until eligible for social securty' up to having to consider how to handle one's dynastic wealth.  Or maybe you're alluding to the First Retire Then Get Rich article, which seemed to imply that you cannot help but end up "rich" if you retire early (which I personally found to be a bit of a stretch, judging by other blogs that are more financially transparent and more marginally successful).  Of course, getting rich can mean all sorts of different things also - you could just as easily 'get rich' by taking your barebones stash to a LCOL country.  But my point, in the context of this thread, is that a person that reached FI a decade or more before 55, which is 'officially' considered to be early retirement, should not considered themself a coward.

I'm FI on my current expenditures and will soon retire.  So I can't go back in time and write iPhone apps to fund my retirement.  But like most here, I'll be retiring to a modest life (in US consumerist standards).  I'm not an ascetic, however, so if I find a fun business opportunity that returns $5 million I'll be happy to spend more in certain areas.

libertarian4321

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #132 on: October 01, 2016, 01:29:39 AM »
I can really think of only one reason why we choose to work for 7-10 years rather than just 1-3 years. That reason is cowardice: fear of not being able to execute; complacence with one's current station in life; a lack of self-confidence; and a belief that it can't just be that easy to become a millionaire. In short, I think there are a lot of cowards here.

Why does this remind me of the beginning of a pitch from some huckster trying to sell you "self improvement" seminars or a multi-level marketing get rich quick scheme?

rocketpj

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #133 on: October 02, 2016, 11:11:31 AM »
Well, I'm 0-3 on starting companies and having them result in anything (though one did finance the next one, which is at least something).  It is possible that they failed because I didn't jump in with both feet and kept my job, but the simple fact is that most new companies fail and I still have to feed the kids.

It may be that I am a coward.  I have a 'friend' who has been living a good life as the head of a startup-ish company for many years.  He is in a constant state of uncertainty but does a lot of fun stuff.  I realized (after working for him for awhile) that a big part of his 'success' is a willingness and complete comfort in avoiding paying people for long periods of time (he finally paid me after I upped the ante in legal threats, 2 years after I downed tools for lack of payment).  It's a small town so I still see him regularly, and he is still on the hustle - but clearly uncomfortable when I chat with him.  The experience taught me (again) that the appearance of success is not always built on solid ground, and can often be built on the backs of others.

The thing about starting companies is that they can/should be learning experiences.  I am working on the 4th effort, and am taking my time to be very selective about what/how to proceed.  One success makes up for many failures - and it only takes one success.

dragoncar

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #134 on: October 02, 2016, 11:45:50 AM »
I have a 'friend' who has been living a good life as the head of a startup-ish company for many years.  He is in a constant state of uncertainty but does a lot of fun stuff.  I realized (after working for him for awhile) that a big part of his 'success' is a willingness and complete comfort in avoiding paying people for long periods of time

... Donald Trump?

scrubbyfish

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Re: Are you a coward?
« Reply #135 on: October 02, 2016, 12:38:49 PM »
Enjoying, thus following :)