I think lots of people are suddenly discovering One Less Year Syndrome as a result of the stock market rising more than 300% in six years.
Performance like that tends to skew your perspective.
So what exactly are you suggesting people do, Sol? Start using 3% SWR because the market is up? Keep on working despite reaching their number? Discount their stash by a factor of ?? to account for recent market gains? People are making plans based on the numbers they have in front of them.
I've had a similar thought to Sol's comment. Call it 'recency bias' but I have more money now than I projected I would have five years ago - and it's raising the hope that I can hit my "FI Number" sooner than previously anticipated. But of course a 20% market drop followed by a few 'sideways' years and I'll feel a bit differently. As much time as I spend studying long-term market returns and doing various market simulations, I know that 5-7 year time frames are largely a crap-shoot, and 5 years from now I could find my NW anywhere from 3x where it is now to slightly-worse-than flat.
These are the sort of tensions that arise out of blending a market-blind, history-based SWR approach to retirement-preparedness with a market-reactive, forward-looking approach.
The Bengen/Trinity Study/4%-Rule style concept of a "safe withdrawal rate" is intentionally blind to market conditions existing at the time of retirement commencement. The entire premise of adopting this type of approach is to select a withdrawal rate with a sufficiently high backtested success rate to ensure your own psychological comfort with pulling the trigger,
no matter what then-current market conditions look like. You're deliberating adopting a strategy designed to withstand the worst-case or near-worst-case retirement scenarios, on the assumption that the future will not be worse than the worst periods of the past.
An implicit assumption behind a strict version of this approach is that every retirement commencement year has an equal chance of producing success or failure. Yet we all know that is not true, so we start to take the next logical step of trying to decipher the writing on the wall in our own potential retirement start year in order to determine whether then-current market conditions foretell success or failure. So, when a six-year bull market causes our portfolios to cross the retirement-trigger threshold established under the approach outlined in the previous paragraph ahead of schedule, we step back and reevaluate, perhaps deciding that we're no longer comfortable betting that the next several decades will pan out no worse than history's worst commensurate multi-decade periods, because now we can see that the cards may stacked against winning that bet. So today, for some of us, a 95% historical success rate, or a 99% historical success rate, or a 100% historical success rate, is no longer sufficient. We need--we
crave--additional safety.
The extreme pessimism of this modified approach is magnified by the fact that, for most of us, it is only the
starting point of an overall retirement strategy that is flexible and adaptive, and which already builds in various layers of safety margin. But these tensions are real, and hard to ignore, and have been a recurring theme in the forum at least since they were first glaringly spotlighted in the now-seminal thread
"do firecalc and cfiresim both lie?".