Author Topic: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?  (Read 15266 times)

benjenn

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Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« on: February 28, 2015, 12:57:47 PM »
So... DH and I were originally planning to retire in June 2018 at 55 and 54 years old.  Then, upon finding MMM, we discovered we could move that WAY up and retire in January 2016 instead.  Then we moved it to December 2015... then November 2015.  And now, we're at July 2015 - 3 full years earlier than we were originally planning.  We will have just turned 52 and 51 then.

So it seems to me that instead of having One More Year Syndrome, like I've seen mentioned in the forum, we seem to have One Less Year Syndrome... or maybe One Month Less Syndrome (although the jump back from November to July was four months).  Yes, we'll have WAY less than we would would have had retiring in 2018... or 2016... or even later in 2015... but we've decided we'll have enough and that's really all we need, isn't it?

I'm not complaining... I'm thrilled we're going to be able to pull the trigger in just 4 short months. Just wondering if anyone else has experienced this... :)

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2015, 01:28:57 PM »
Yes, MLY (many less years) as well as a OMY are both definitely going on in this forum! They actually compliment one another.

When you first read MMM you think "Oh gosh, I don't have to retire at 65 - I can choose my own retirement age - now what will it be?"

And then you have to go through the excruciating experience of working things out! Most people just assume that they will retire at 65, and will have enough to live on. The MMM crowd need to budget and calculate. And no-one is good at maths, or is sure enough of their maths to be absolutely sure their calculations are correct, so they work out a figure, then work it out again... consequently OMY.

The net result of course is that some people still retire at 65.

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2015, 02:16:19 PM »
Yes, I did catch OLY syndrome.  And it got me!

I went from an original "inertial" plan to retire at 62... then to 60 based on some basic cost reductions... and then all the way down to 53 thanks to a very serious frugality-without-sacrifice drive and a relocation that cranked my basic living expenses down 42%.  That was 14 years ago.  And I've loved every extra year of freedom!

Middlesbrough

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2015, 02:25:33 PM »
I always planned to retire "early" when I was younger at 55. Since finding MMM, I am shooting for early 40's.

SailorGirl

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2015, 02:32:39 PM »
I lost my job at 48 and was unable to get another in my field.  After some fussing and soul searching I decided that I was done with the conventional work force and promptly declared myself semi-retired.  I still have to work to support my mortgage but hopefully the house will sell for a reasonable price this year and I can move onto my boyfriend's boat, cutting my housing expense by a factor of eight,

No, I don't have enough to FIRE and maintain this lifestyle, but I'm perfectly fine with completely remaking my life.  The plan is to be somewhere in South America within the next two years.  :)

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2015, 06:11:35 PM »
Thanks to FireSim, I was able to calculate needing only three more years, to my great surprise.

This had me thinking, like others, on what I really wanted from retirement, and I starting to visualize a new work/ lifeplan that does away with full time salary, and includes learning and doing thing I actually want to do.

I am now thinking about 5 more months, instead of three, with some sort of income trickle over the next 15 years.   Why the heck am I working like this now anyway?

 I should not wait to 'live' until I retire... Why not now?  My five year goals are not about expensive travel or buying things, but doing things I value.  Thanks MMM.

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2015, 06:18:53 PM »
Oh hell yes. I keep moving it in earlier and earlier. Now I'm tempted to be done this year.

Though I'm applying for a new job that may keep me around for at least a year or three more depending on how much I enjoy it.

But yes, we keep moving in our FIRE date... typically because everything goes better than expected (and the wife is getting antsy - she'll probably FIRE in June regardless of if I decide to do another year or not).
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Thegoblinchief

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2015, 07:14:46 AM »
It's all about knowing what is enough. Often the nebulous concept of "enough" shrinks in the face of needing to sell your life energy away for another month, year, or years.

We're so early (less than 100K liquid, and nearly all of that balanced by debt) that it's impossible to know how many years, but i will be ecstatic if it happens sooner than I project. We have a good sense of what's enough where we're currently at, but we're exploring a variety of relocation options, so the "enough" quotient is very hard to pin down right now.

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2015, 09:18:34 AM »
Not yet, due to a lack of decisiveness (and a lack of spousal support for the idea).

In the meantime...I'm hovering at 2-4 years, with semi-regular flashes of pulling the plug this summer.  I've also done a decent job of being content with the plan.  I really don't find my work satisfying, but it isn't THAT bad and gives me tons of flexibility...so I have a few projects outlined for the next 2-4 years that seem interesting and that I can do on my own terms for the most part.  The upside of keeping on for a while is a few more one-time purchases that will last the rest of my life.

Mrs. Frugalwoods

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2015, 07:05:08 PM »
Yes! I definitely feel this. We're scheduled for September 2017, but every month or so we game out a "what if we retired now" scenario. Unsurprisingly, the numbers haven't changed and it really will be wisest to wait. It's a short span of time and I fully realize how incredibly fortunate we are to be hitting FI at age 33. So I try to just keep my little mouth shut and be a happy little cubicle worker. But, I'd really like to just quit now... like right now.

Blindsquirrel

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2015, 07:49:40 PM »
nope, fundamental feeling of insecurity about bailing on  my job prevents this. I am weak. :)

goodlife

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2015, 11:13:18 PM »
I am three years from FIRE...but sometimes when I am bored and/or annoyed at work, I sit in my office and day-dream that I have an unknown aunt/uncle somewhere who suddenly bestows upon me an inheritance equal to my incremental FIRE amount and then I could FIRE that same day...hahahah

smalllife

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2015, 04:52:01 AM »
I am three years from FIRE...but sometimes when I am bored and/or annoyed at work, I sit in my office and day-dream that I have an unknown aunt/uncle somewhere who suddenly bestows upon me an inheritance equal to my incremental FIRE amount and then I could FIRE that same day...hahahah


I call that "Monday"

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2015, 06:11:26 AM »
I always had a vague notion that I'd want DH to retire at 55, which I deemed early.  Once I started reading MMM, I upped it to 45.  My current plan has us retiring with too much money at 46 and 47.  I suspect that after we buy our next three rentals and have them rented out fully, that we will get a bit antsy to up that again to 43/42.  The rentals plus about 10K in side hustles will more than cover our expenses.  We will see! 

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2015, 07:01:34 AM »
I decided in my late 20's that I wanted to retire early and figured I could do it by 43 or so (based on Your Money or Your Life). After finding MMM, I've bumped it up to 38...but it maybe as early as 37 (i.e. 2016).

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #15 on: March 02, 2015, 09:59:49 AM »
Definitely suffering (not really) from MLY syndrome. When I first found the site I wasn't even keeping track of my stache or how long I have left to work. Just assumed it couldn't happen before my kids were done with college. Then I made some calculations and saw the light: only 7 more years. This is awesome. Then I found many ways to cut our expenses down and aggressively pay off our house to make it only 4 years. Now I don't see much use for staying in our expensive house and can cut a couple more years off.

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #16 on: March 03, 2015, 09:02:04 AM »
... I made some calculations and saw the light: only 7 more years. This is awesome. Then I found many ways to cut our expenses down and aggressively pay off our house to make it only 4 years. Now I don't see much use for staying in our expensive house and can cut a couple more years off.


I also found that rethinking our housing situation could result in a HUGE cut in my wait to reach Financial Independence.  I mean, who needs to stay in a High Cost of Living Area if you are not going to be job-dependent?!

Long story short, we found a much more Reasonable Cost of Living Area we would be happy in, sold the expensive house, and replaced it (really) in our new location at 60% of the market value of our HCOL house.  AND practically paid for the new house with the profits from selling the old one.

Sweet!

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #17 on: March 03, 2015, 09:21:11 AM »
My immediate goal is not FIRE, just ditching my full-time job to be an ANG bum and part-time real estate agent, and this month is when I thought I'd actually do it (or at least be close enough to set a date). Not everything has gone as planned, I have a high-end rental sitting empty, and it would be easy to get discouraged. Fortunately, I'm doing my best to stay focused on our high SR and rising net worth, while continuing to invest and diversify and gain new skills.

I think for now I'm just going to keep saying "before the end of the year". If I get there early, then that's awesome. If I don't, it'll have been a conscious decision to work longer and invest more, and that's okay too. OMM, OMY, whatever. :D

Cookie78

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #18 on: March 03, 2015, 09:33:26 AM »
Absolutely.

When I first started reading MMM I estimated I could retire in 8-10 years, now I'm aiming for 5 years (dependent on a lot of things working out to my advantage).

But I still am trying to find ways to do the math to cut that time shorter and shorter every day. Things may change when I get closer, but I can already envision myself pulling the plug a year before I 'should'.

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #19 on: March 03, 2015, 09:59:15 AM »
OLY and OMY have been in an epic fight for the last 6 months or so.  It just depends on what day of the week it is, what the market it doing, and how irritating work is. As it is, I will probably come in right around the date I projected over 10 years ago.   

Thegoblinchief

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #20 on: March 03, 2015, 07:52:40 PM »
OLY and OMY have been in an epic fight for the last 6 months or so.  It just depends on what day of the week it is, what the market it doing, and how irritating work is. As it is, I will probably come in right around the date I projected over 10 years ago.

That's pretty cool, that your projection was that close!

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #21 on: March 03, 2015, 09:31:24 PM »
... But I still am trying to find ways to do the math to cut that time shorter and shorter every day...


"There is always one more thing you can do."
Lt. Col. Harold G. Moore (We Were Soldiers Once...)

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #22 on: March 04, 2015, 01:31:06 AM »
OLY and OMY have been in an epic fight for the last 6 months or so.  It just depends on what day of the week it is, what the market it doing, and how irritating work is.

That describes me too. I shuffle the date around depending how things are. It was driving me nuts, so I'm counting 3 years and 8 months, minimum, then will take LSL half pay for 8months and then depending on my numbers and how I feel, retire, or go back to work for 3 months since I can earn a years expenses in 3 months…. and every now and then I work out number for another 18months work and they look truly fabulous and I'm tempted. If my employer declines my request for LSL ( which they can do), then I'll really have to think.

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #23 on: March 05, 2015, 06:32:34 AM »
I am three years from FIRE...but sometimes when I am bored and/or annoyed at work, I sit in my office and day-dream that I have an unknown aunt/uncle somewhere who suddenly bestows upon me an inheritance equal to my incremental FIRE amount and then I could FIRE that same day...hahahah


I call that "Monday"

I call that "every day"!

Gone Fishing

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #24 on: March 05, 2015, 10:02:59 AM »
OLY and OMY have been in an epic fight for the last 6 months or so.  It just depends on what day of the week it is, what the market it doing, and how irritating work is. As it is, I will probably come in right around the date I projected over 10 years ago.

That's pretty cool, that your projection was that close!

The time frame worked out about right, but my initial numbers were WAY off.  Some crazy part of me thought I could withdraw 8% because the market averaged 10%, right?  But, hey, it got me saving and who knows, I might have given up if I thought I needed to save 25 times my expenses vs 12.5 (not likely though!) As it is, the 'stache will be 3x what I intially projected!

arebelspy

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #25 on: March 05, 2015, 10:55:59 AM »
OLY and OMY have been in an epic fight for the last 6 months or so.  It just depends on what day of the week it is, what the market it doing, and how irritating work is. As it is, I will probably come in right around the date I projected over 10 years ago.

That's pretty cool, that your projection was that close!

The time frame worked out about right, but my initial numbers were WAY off.  Some crazy part of me thought I could withdraw 8% because the market averaged 10%, right?  But, hey, it got me saving and who knows, I might have given up if I thought I needed to save 25 times my expenses vs 12.5 (not likely though!) As it is, the 'stache will be 3x what I intially projected!

That's awesome. Well done.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
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OC

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #26 on: June 06, 2015, 05:49:27 AM »
After a few years of OMY syndrome i find myself to have switched to OLY. Happened a few months ago with the desire to go hard and amass more diminishing. Recently culled all but a few (one long term) clients and was immediately feeling better. I'll still continue to invest/develop in real estate (and at a slower pace) but that's just fun :)

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #27 on: June 06, 2015, 07:23:57 AM »
I have the OLY/OMY battle. With such a long time period, and so many unknowns, just small changes in your assumptions can make big changes in outcomes.

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #28 on: June 06, 2015, 07:45:57 AM »
Happened to me.

I took a 'two more year' job to squeeze out some more money before retirement.   The problem is that I lost the ability to deal with B.S. in the workplace.   Six months in, I resigned.   My last day is a week from today.   A little bittersweet to end my career this way, but in the long run, I'm sure this is the right choice.

« Last Edit: June 06, 2015, 07:50:16 AM by biscuitwhomper »

HenryDavid

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #29 on: June 06, 2015, 08:28:44 AM »
I don't have OLY syndrome, exactly. More like "less job PER year, starting now."
Doing all the math shows that I CAN stop work-for-pay in a few months or a year. No need to await 65, or even 55 (I'm 53). Not bad for someone who started a moderately paid real job at 30.

But instead of going full-bore for one more year, then completely ceasing work, I'm trying out what might be a 2-3 year taper.
Instead of sprinting for the finish now that it's in view, it's like throttling back to a slower jog and looking at the scenery a lot more.

For me this means a 75% job for this year. Then maybe the same again, or 50% . . . I have a flexible employer.
I like the taper because it also addresses the question "what are you retiring TO?" It will take a bit of time to redirect the energies that have gone into paid work. Once new outlets for those energies and skills have been built up, I figure I'll naturally segue out of the "job."
I wonder how many employers might be willing to make similar arrangements, if it were pitched to them? The point of this blog, I figure, is not really "retirement" but instead "freedom to make life on your own terms because your (reduced) material needs in life are now taken care of." Some people might enjoy some kind of partial work deal instead of full "retirement." For a while. Let 1000 ways of living bloom.

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #30 on: June 06, 2015, 08:56:20 AM »
Not exactly for full retirement, but I got an email from a recruiter about doing temporary jobs (5-13 weeks) where they cover your living expenses while you work them.

The dream would be to hit around $500k, then do some of these jobs with RV travel in between.  One 13 week assignment could probably come close to covering expenses for a year.

ZiziPB

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #31 on: June 06, 2015, 11:17:37 AM »
Yes!  Before finding MMM I thought I would work till I was 60 (2027).  Since then, I decided that April 1, 2018 woul be my FIRE date. But in the last few months I've been thinking that I can push it to April 1 2017. I really want to FIRE before my 50th birthday!

gt7152b

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #32 on: June 06, 2015, 11:32:11 AM »
Always been a decent saver but found the blog about 1.5 yrs ago and went through the calculations several times. First it was 7yrs til fire based off no changes to our lifestyle, then 4 based on setting a better budget, then 3 after further optimization. We are moving in a couple of weeks to a place where we would actually want to retire rather than just living where the job is. The new house will come with much lower expenses and biking distance to everything we need. Really I could fire now with some careful planning but I'll at least finish up the final 1.5 yrs to provide a few luxuries or margin in case of surprises.

One thing I've discovered through the process is that I became very dissatisfied with my job and was only looking towards the future. This was not a healthy or happy way to live so I've been trying to live in the present more while still planning for a different future. It has made me appreciate my job and where I live much more than at the beginning of my journey. I may even want to keep on working past my comfortable FI date but it will have to be on more favorable terms (mainly less time in the office and more flexible hours).

sol

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #33 on: June 06, 2015, 12:53:18 PM »
I think lots of people are suddenly discovering One Less Year Syndrome as a result of the stock market rising more than 300% in six years.

Performance like that tends to skew your perspective.

nottoolatetostart

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #34 on: June 07, 2015, 11:54:21 AM »
Ugh, too much. DH is now tempting me with me being a SAHM now instead of me continuing to work to pay off our mortgage (eeks, I know...but it's a $10K liability/year with the mortgage payment). It is getting tougher to deal with corporate BS every day. Every week that goes by, I think "AH! I made it one more week here".


Workinghard

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #35 on: June 07, 2015, 03:51:23 PM »
Definitely OLY here. My dh retires next year at 65. He needs Medicare. I was going to work until 64 when he'd be 70 and getting full SS. Then I decreased it to 62. Then I was going to work a year after he retired to transition. Next it was retiring at the same time he did. Now I'll be retiring 3-4 months earlier, at  age 59, getting and keeping our home/yard in shape to sell. I can't do that and work. 

What convinced me was that we only need 5 years of bridge expenses before we get SS which is more than our current expenses. I'll file at 62, he'll file and restrict, so we'll get around 20k for 2 of those 5 years. With over 1m net worth, including our home, we should be fine.

I enjoy my work but I'm ready to enjoy being with my husband more.

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #36 on: June 07, 2015, 04:52:51 PM »
FIL just had a minor heart attack at the age of 63 this past weekend - he's still working.  Yep, OLY is alive and well in my household.  If I can help it at all, I want DH to semi-retire in his early 40's so he has a solid 20 years of retirement before health concerns start to rear their head.  Plus, if he's retired, he'll be up and moving more than he is now, which should be better for him health-wise.  Thankful that FIL is okay, wish he would retire soon as I have a feeling they've already saved more than enough to retire now, as long as they can figure out health insurance for my MIL and are willing to shell out for it.  I think they've been holding out for Medicare which I believe they'll qualify for in a couple of years.  I am certain they have enough money to bridge the gap. 

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #37 on: June 08, 2015, 03:57:28 AM »
I think lots of people are suddenly discovering One Less Year Syndrome as a result of the stock market rising more than 300% in six years.

Performance like that tends to skew your perspective.
So what exactly are you suggesting people do, Sol?  Start using 3% SWR because the market is up? Keep on working despite reaching their number?  Discount their stash by a factor of ?? to account for recent market gains?  People are making plans based on the numbers they have in front of them.

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #38 on: June 08, 2015, 05:02:49 AM »
I'm definitely in the OLY mindset. 3 to 5 years left in me max.

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #39 on: June 08, 2015, 05:57:54 AM »
Its monday morning.. I thinking today would be great.....

if it wasn't for the bills......

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #40 on: June 08, 2015, 06:34:49 AM »
Ugh, too much. DH is now tempting me with me being a SAHM now instead of me continuing to work to pay off our mortgage (eeks, I know...but it's a $10K liability/year with the mortgage payment). It is getting tougher to deal with corporate BS every day. Every week that goes by, I think "AH! I made it one more week here".

Being a SAHP is very rewarding for me, and the sanity and time gain was well worth an income hit for us. But not everyone is cut out to enjoy SAH status. Any chance you can get a trial run via paid or unpaid leave/sabbatical?

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #41 on: June 08, 2015, 07:06:19 AM »
I think lots of people are suddenly discovering One Less Year Syndrome as a result of the stock market rising more than 300% in six years.

Performance like that tends to skew your perspective.
So what exactly are you suggesting people do, Sol?  Start using 3% SWR because the market is up? Keep on working despite reaching their number?  Discount their stash by a factor of ?? to account for recent market gains?  People are making plans based on the numbers they have in front of them.
I've had a similar thought to Sol's comment.  Call it 'recency bias' but I have more money now than I projected I would have five years ago - and it's raising the hope that I can hit my "FI Number" sooner than previously anticipated.  But of course a 20% market drop followed by a few 'sideways' years and I'll feel a bit differently.  As much time as I spend studying long-term market returns and doing various market simulations, I know that 5-7 year time frames are largely a crap-shoot, and 5 years from now I could find my NW anywhere from 3x where it is now to slightly-worse-than flat.

To address the OP:  yes, I get OLY syndrome, especially everytime that I realize I can live quite happily without spending money on something i previously thought was just a cost of life.  Every raise makes us think we can hit FI earlier (we pessimisitic in that regard, and our default mindset when budgeting is that we're just not going to get a raise this year).  Consequentially, we keep finding that we've invested more than we thought we could.

Cookie78

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #42 on: June 08, 2015, 08:31:09 AM »
Its monday morning.. I thinking today would be great.....

if it wasn't for the bills......

After a great weekend and a gorgeous forecast for today I had this exact same thought.

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #43 on: June 08, 2015, 08:44:04 AM »
Always been a decent saver but found the blog about 1.5 yrs ago and went through the calculations several times. First it was 7yrs til fire based off no changes to our lifestyle, then 4 based on setting a better budget, then 3 after further optimization. We are moving in a couple of weeks to a place where we would actually want to retire rather than just living where the job is. The new house will come with much lower expenses and biking distance to everything we need. Really I could fire now with some careful planning but I'll at least finish up the final 1.5 yrs to provide a few luxuries or margin in case of surprises.

One thing I've discovered through the process is that I became very dissatisfied with my job and was only looking towards the future. This was not a healthy or happy way to live so I've been trying to live in the present more while still planning for a different future. It has made me appreciate my job and where I live much more than at the beginning of my journey. I may even want to keep on working past my comfortable FI date but it will have to be on more favorable terms (mainly less time in the office and more flexible hours).

This is what I am working to not do as well.  I don't want to work so hard for a date in the future that I forget to live in the moment (and "dismiss" my life today while waiting for RE).

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #44 on: June 08, 2015, 09:45:18 AM »
I think lots of people are suddenly discovering One Less Year Syndrome as a result of the stock market rising more than 300% in six years.

Performance like that tends to skew your perspective.
So what exactly are you suggesting people do, Sol?  Start using 3% SWR because the market is up? Keep on working despite reaching their number?  Discount their stash by a factor of ?? to account for recent market gains?  People are making plans based on the numbers they have in front of them.

I didn't mean to suggest anything in particular, just highlight one possible reason for the recent surge of OLY syndrome.

The beauty of the swr literature is that it applies to all years you could retire, even the worst ones.  Rather than worrying about whether or not this is one of the worst ones, I'll just assume it doesn't matter.  I have faith in my ability to see widespread economic collapse coming, our at least recognize it while unfolding and be able to make adjustments.

brooklynguy

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #45 on: June 08, 2015, 09:54:37 AM »
I think lots of people are suddenly discovering One Less Year Syndrome as a result of the stock market rising more than 300% in six years.

Performance like that tends to skew your perspective.
So what exactly are you suggesting people do, Sol?  Start using 3% SWR because the market is up? Keep on working despite reaching their number?  Discount their stash by a factor of ?? to account for recent market gains?  People are making plans based on the numbers they have in front of them.
I've had a similar thought to Sol's comment.  Call it 'recency bias' but I have more money now than I projected I would have five years ago - and it's raising the hope that I can hit my "FI Number" sooner than previously anticipated.  But of course a 20% market drop followed by a few 'sideways' years and I'll feel a bit differently.  As much time as I spend studying long-term market returns and doing various market simulations, I know that 5-7 year time frames are largely a crap-shoot, and 5 years from now I could find my NW anywhere from 3x where it is now to slightly-worse-than flat.

These are the sort of tensions that arise out of blending a market-blind, history-based SWR approach to retirement-preparedness with a market-reactive, forward-looking approach.

The Bengen/Trinity Study/4%-Rule style concept of a "safe withdrawal rate" is intentionally blind to market conditions existing at the time of retirement commencement.  The entire premise of adopting this type of approach is to select a withdrawal rate with a sufficiently high backtested success rate to ensure your own psychological comfort with pulling the trigger, no matter what then-current market conditions look like.  You're deliberating adopting a strategy designed to withstand the worst-case or near-worst-case retirement scenarios, on the assumption that the future will not be worse than the worst periods of the past.

An implicit assumption behind a strict version of this approach is that every retirement commencement year has an equal chance of producing success or failure.  Yet we all know that is not true, so we start to take the next logical step of trying to decipher the writing on the wall in our own potential retirement start year in order to determine whether then-current market conditions foretell success or failure.  So, when a six-year bull market causes our portfolios to cross the retirement-trigger threshold established under the approach outlined in the previous paragraph ahead of schedule, we step back and reevaluate, perhaps deciding that we're no longer comfortable betting that the next several decades will pan out no worse than history's worst commensurate multi-decade periods, because now we can see that the cards may stacked against winning that bet.  So today, for some of us, a 95% historical success rate, or a 99% historical success rate, or a 100% historical success rate, is no longer sufficient.  We need--we crave--additional safety.

The extreme pessimism of this modified approach is magnified by the fact that, for most of us, it is only the starting point of an overall retirement strategy that is flexible and adaptive, and which already builds in various layers of safety margin.  But these tensions are real, and hard to ignore, and have been a recurring theme in the forum at least since they were first glaringly spotlighted in the now-seminal thread "do firecalc and cfiresim both lie?".

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #46 on: June 08, 2015, 10:07:26 AM »
I think lots of people are suddenly discovering One Less Year Syndrome as a result of the stock market rising more than 300% in six years.

Performance like that tends to skew your perspective.
So what exactly are you suggesting people do, Sol?  Start using 3% SWR because the market is up? Keep on working despite reaching their number?  Discount their stash by a factor of ?? to account for recent market gains?  People are making plans based on the numbers they have in front of them.
I've had a similar thought to Sol's comment.  Call it 'recency bias' but I have more money now than I projected I would have five years ago - and it's raising the hope that I can hit my "FI Number" sooner than previously anticipated.  But of course a 20% market drop followed by a few 'sideways' years and I'll feel a bit differently.  As much time as I spend studying long-term market returns and doing various market simulations, I know that 5-7 year time frames are largely a crap-shoot, and 5 years from now I could find my NW anywhere from 3x where it is now to slightly-worse-than flat.

These are the sort of tensions that arise out of blending a market-blind, history-based SWR approach to retirement-preparedness with a market-reactive, forward-looking approach.

The Bengen/Trinity Study/4%-Rule style concept of a "safe withdrawal rate" is intentionally blind to market conditions existing at the time of retirement commencement.  The entire premise of adopting this type of approach is to select a withdrawal rate with a sufficiently high backtested success rate to ensure your own psychological comfort with pulling the trigger, no matter what then-current market conditions look like.  You're deliberating adopting a strategy designed to withstand the worst-case or near-worst-case retirement scenarios, on the assumption that the future will not be worse than the worst periods of the past.

An implicit assumption behind a strict version of this approach is that every retirement commencement year has an equal chance of producing success or failure.  Yet we all know that is not true, so we start to take the next logical step of trying to decipher the writing on the wall in our own potential retirement start year in order to determine whether then-current market conditions foretell success or failure.  So, when a six-year bull market causes our portfolios to cross the retirement-trigger threshold established under the approach outlined in the previous paragraph ahead of schedule, we step back and reevaluate, perhaps deciding that we're no longer comfortable betting that the next several decades will pan out no worse than history's worst commensurate multi-decade periods, because now we can see that the cards may stacked against winning that bet.  So today, for some of us, a 95% historical success rate, or a 99% historical success rate, or a 100% historical success rate, is no longer sufficient.  We need--we crave--additional safety....

inherent is this is the assumption that the portfolio has crossed the 'retirement-trigger threshold'.  Alas, mine has not.  Perhaps I should have explicitly said so in my post, but I'm still several years out from hitting my "FI Number." The recent market run-up has raised my hopes that my FIRE date might be closer than originally anticipated, and has led to the OLY syndrome that the OP asked about.

like Sol said, once there I have faith in my ability to recognize and make adjustments for economic storms, so I'm less worried about what future economic scenarios may look like once I do get to FI.

brooklynguy

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #47 on: June 08, 2015, 01:46:12 PM »
inherent is this is the assumption that the portfolio has crossed the 'retirement-trigger threshold'.  Alas, mine has not.  Perhaps I should have explicitly said so in my post, but I'm still several years out from hitting my "FI Number." The recent market run-up has raised my hopes that my FIRE date might be closer than originally anticipated, and has led to the OLY syndrome that the OP asked about.

like Sol said, once there I have faith in my ability to recognize and make adjustments for economic storms, so I'm less worried about what future economic scenarios may look like once I do get to FI.

Yeah, I didn't mean to address my post to you specifically, but to the general "you" (i.e., "we," including myself).  I was just observing that we in this forum have been recently displaying a schizophrenic tendency of simultaneously believing and disbelieving in (or caring and not caring about) the ability to successfully "retirement time" (the equivalent of "market timing," with a decades-long time horizon).  And people seem to be dealing with it in one or more (or some combination) of the methods Zizi mentioned above -- either having a sudden change of heart (in light of current market conditions) after having set a portfolio-dollar-value-based retirement trigger, and deciding to lower their planned WR / increase their target stash size to delay retirement, or using a time-based retirement trigger (based on their projected savings rate) and then sticking to the original schedule even when market returns power their portfolio above the target threshold ahead of schedule.

Few if any of us are immune to these tensions.  Not long after I first discovered and internalized the shockingly simple math behind financial independence and early retirement, I confidently promised myself that I would pull the ripcord immediately upon hitting my target number (and not a moment later).  Now, even though I haven't made it there yet, I'm already feeling the first pangs of OMY syndrome whispering in my subconscious that "this time is different -- the current market could be a retirement widow-maker unlike any in history," even though I'm concomitantly suffering from a competing case of OLY syndrome that's raising my hopes of an even-earlier-than-expected early retirement.

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Re: Anyone have One Less Year (or Month) Syndrome instead of OMY?
« Reply #48 on: June 09, 2015, 05:34:57 AM »
I was planning to actually work for about a year longer than I'm now going to. I originally was planning to ER in mid-late 2016. But I'm now going to ER in September of this year. I am already FI, I just wanted a larger stash to feel even more comfortable. But my job has gotten intolerably bad. The culture is very toxic, with too much political nonsense. Even with less than 90 days left until ER, knowing it's so close, it's still hard to tolerate going to work every day. I don't get much sleep due to stress, and I leave work feeling exhausted and angry.

So yes, ERing OLY than planned. Reason: For my mental health.

 

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