Indeed. That's why I said your previous post was spot on. Claiming equivalence while neglecting major issues like taxes is absurd. You have to look at the real world. Some people feel compelled to claim savings and investing are the same thing. Yet as you point out, from a financial standpoint they are very different. So what's the harm in saying different things are different?
Frugalnacho also did not actually address the time value of money issue either. Saying it was 'baked in to interest rates' ignored that the time value of money is based on inflation. Many Americans got ahead in the 80's by taking out 30 year mortgages, enjoying inflation based raises, then keeping mortgages until they were laughably insignificant monthly payments over time. And, of course, in the real world, you can refinance your mortgage or cash out equity in your home - both of which made a home loan a 'good' liability over time, as opposed to revolving debt.
What is a better conversation Frugalnacho should consider is if a mortgage now is, even at a low rate, a good thing to hold. No one is worried about being stuck with a 28.9% mortgage.
Go back to the thought experiment of having a $100k mortgage/loan, a mortgage counterpart savings account with an APY equal to the mortgage APR, and the full balance of the mortgage in cash. You put the cash into the savings account, and pay the mortgage off from the savings account each month. As I previously showed, at every point in time between now and the end of the loan term you will be exactly even, the savings account balance will be exactly equal to the mortgage account balance. You could pay it off now, in 30 years, or any point in between, because the mortgage and savings account will be a nice tidy self contained set of accounts that balance out to exactly $0 at all points in time. For the sake of argument let's assume you have no other assets, you live completely free with no additional expenses, and have no additional income. Then 20 years into the mortgage you get a $20k windfall.
Scenario A: Frugalnacho immediately paid his mortgage off and has remained at $0 networth for 20 years. He takes his $20k, opens a vanguard account, and invests it in the best options available in the year 2040.
Scenario B: Escapevelocity2020 held onto his mortgage, and remained at $0 networth for 20 years. His mortgage balance and savings account are in perfect balance, and his mortgage payments are now comparatively lower than they were in the year 2020 because of the time value of money. He takes his $20k, opens a vanguard account, and invests it in the best options available in the year 2040.
What difference is there between scenario A and B, and how did the time value of money help at all? We both had a networth of $0, which jumped to $20k when we got the windfall. We both have $20k invested in the same funds at the same time.
By prepaying the mortgage in scenario A I locked in a "return" for the entire term of the loan,
but simultaneously locked in my mortgage APR for the entire term as well.
Any tax implications, opportunity costs, potential for refinancing, anticipated inflation, etc are additional considerations. The inflation erodes away the debt, but also erodes away the cash you have. In the scenario you described of people getting mortgages, then allowing the time value of money to work to their benefit, they likely didn't have the money to pay the mortgage so you are only seeing inflation erode the debt and not their non-existent cash. If they did have the cash to cover the mortgage (or even a portion of it) then what did they do with their money in that inflationary environment that netted them a better return than paying off the mortgage? That's really the question here. Because I contend that money paid towards your mortgage nets you a "return" that is mathematically equivalent to investing the same amount of money and getting a real return (with a few caveats, namely by locking in that "return" you are also locking in your debt APR for the remainder of the term). I understand it is not technically a return, and will be plugged into your accounting spreadsheet in a different column than a real return, but mathematically it's equivalent and if someone wants to conceptualize that they are getting a "return" by paying down debt then I have no problem with that terminology. I also have no problem if someone wants to be pedantic and correct that terminology to something that is technically more accurate, but I don't feel like that is what was going on. For example when Telecaster stated this:
After 2008 i considered mortgage acceleration as a diversification strategy, not as a sole source of investing. I feel more comfortable having some of my investment in a fixed return.
Except it is not a fixed return. It is a future savings.
See if there anything wrong with this logic: I paid of my credit cards this month. I got a 28.9% return. I'll continue to get a 28.9% return for the next ten years and retire wealthy. If credit card interest goes up to 33.5% I can retire even sooner because I am getting a better return.
Obviously, that's wrong. Paying down debt doesn't give you a return. There is no return. You just spend less money in the future.
Don't get me wrong! There is absolutely nothing wrong with a future savings. This might sound like nitpicking but it is not. Return on investment and future savings are completely different concepts that need to be thought about separately.
The flaw in that logic is that the debt and the rate of the debt is already a forgone conclusion. Stating "I'll continue to get a 29.8% return for the next ten years and retire wealthy" is inaccurate and misleading. It implies there is no real "return", because if there was a real "return" then it would propel you to wealth over the next 10 years. Except that is exactly what does happen. If you have a debt at 28.9%, then paying that off will propel you towards retiring wealthy, and in fact at the exact same rate as it would if you opted to put that money into an investment with a real return of 28.9%. Those 2 options are mathematically equivalent and will have the same effect on your FIRE date.
“Laughably insignificant monthly payments” from people who took our a mortgage in the 80s accurately describes my parent’s mortgage. They like to joke that they are 41 years into a 30 year mortgage and they have just 9 years to go until it’s paid off.
Took out the loan at 9% (!) and set up a sinking fund to cover the home. Bonds were soon paying 12%+ so they loaded up on those for a while (why pay off a mortgage when bonds pay more than your interest rate?). Three cash ReFi’s - each time lowering the rate and padding the sinking fund while allowing them to max out their tax-advantaged accounts.
Today they still have that sinking fund - and The mortgage (now around 3.5%) - and the yield on their investments in the sinking fund more than covers their monthly mortgage payments. Also enlightening is the taxes and insurance are roughly 3x what their original mortgage payment was. To everyone who thinks having a paid off home means you will never lose your house... consider what happens if you can’t pay your taxes and insurance - and what those will look like relative to your mortgage in 20 or 30 years.
Right, so this is basically my thought experiment but instead of the mortgage and savings account being x%, it is mortgage at X% APR, and savings account at X+3% APY. I feel like this fully supports my point. It would be insane to lock in a "return" of 9% by paying the mortgage when you could get 12% elsewhere. Refinancing to lower your mortgage APR would similarly affect the math advantageously in your favor.