Author Topic: Another refutation of MMM  (Read 11650 times)

odput

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Another refutation of MMM
« on: February 27, 2015, 06:38:32 AM »
http://www.demos.org/blog/2/26/15/only-few-can-live-rent-seeking

Better written than most, I must admit, but it seems that the 2 fundamental flaws of these articles are:
1. Conflating the phrase "anyone can do it" with "everyone should do it"
2. Lack of imagination of what economies would look like other than the current consumer driven ones

Anyone else getting tired of reading this same old bullshit?  It's almost like they are trying to convince themselves that they are right, or perhaps justify their lifestyle choices?  "The system is broken and it's not my fault!"

Rezdent

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2015, 08:23:11 AM »
Well.  Crab trap article.
I stopped on the first page.  It appeared to be some sort of regurgitation of popular content designed to appeal to a mainstream audience's feelings of how hard it is to earn, save, learn, and invest and absolve them of any guilt for not trying.

But the article's existence is proof that MMM ideas are spreading.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2015, 08:27:18 AM »
But the article's existence is proof that MMM ideas are spreading.

I agree. The more nerves he strikes, the greater his influence. I wonder how many people climb aboard after reading critical articles like this. Probably a small percentage, but I'm sure this is how some people get introduced to MMM.

OSUBearCub

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2015, 08:42:36 AM »
These articles miss the point that mustachianism is hard work.  When I chat with my colleagues about my savings rate, jaws drop.  The fact of the matter is that most of the population is too lazy to make the necessary changes in budget/spending/savings to have any sort of macroeconomic effect on their respective nation.  Economies wont collapse.  The sky isn't falling.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2015, 08:42:47 AM »
It's a silly argument.

With consumer consumption and debt so high does anyone expect more than a few % of the population to really follow the plan MMM espouses?

I don't.

So on its face the argument is nullified regardless of whether or not it's a logical concern should 40%+ of the population start wanting to FIRE and do something about it.

-- Vik

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2015, 08:44:19 AM »
There's an apparently prevalent piece of human psychology that I just don't understand regarding the urge to claim MMM and ERE unsustainable due to the effect it would have on society if everyone did it.  You see plenty of threads here asking the same question as if it matters.  I mean, who gives a shit?  It's pure fiction to even consider it.  I really hate that argument.

starguru

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2015, 08:57:07 AM »
The article also seems to interpret MMM as an all or nothing self-contained box.  As if MMM is arguing that everyone must do everything he ever wrote anything about.  You can break MMM into discrete concepts, one of which is spend less than you make to build wealth.  Everyone could do that, and we would all be better off if they did.  Another concept across MMM is have less environmental footprint thru consuming less, being a little more stoic on the temperature settings etc.  Again, everyone can do that and we would all be better off if they did.


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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2015, 09:06:46 AM »
Funny how he calls out MMM. While MMM has certainly done a good job writing about his own path in a more accessible format than previous authors, FI through reinvestment and passive income is not new by any stretch.

Pretty sorry argument the author makes, though.  It is certainly true that if EVERYONE got on the ER path today (although it would never happen) it would be a sudden and severe shock to the economy and things would be pretty rough for a while until everything settled out.  But seeing as this will never happen, we have nothing to worry about.  Sure, everything we consume has to be produced, and someone (or something) must produce it.  But a better capitalized world can automate and streamline more and more of that production.   

Just as a little thought experiment, it is not to hard to imagine an economy where most of the workforce is in their 20's, being trained and managed by part-time 30-40 year olds.  Wages would be high because the small workforce.  Automation would be everywhere. But alas, we never have to worry about such things because immediate gratification and greed are going nowhere. 

As it is, Americans ARE a little more financially conservative than they were before the 2008 recession, savings rates are up (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-savings) and household debt is down (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_debt).  This change in behavior has certainly contributed to the "slow" recovery, but what it is doing is preparing America for future prosperity.  It will probably be a bit less dramatic than the post-depression recovery and increase prosperity, but it will be visible. 

       
« Last Edit: February 27, 2015, 09:10:02 AM by So Close »

jordanread

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2015, 09:17:42 AM »
There's an apparently prevalent piece of human psychology that I just don't understand regarding the urge to claim MMM and ERE unsustainable due to the effect it would have on society if everyone did it.  You see plenty of threads here asking the same question as if it matters.  I mean, who gives a shit?  It's pure fiction to even consider it.  I really hate that argument.

Well, I suppose it depends on how much of an understanding of how the economy as a whole works you want. Feel free to hate the argument, but that thought experiment goes into some of the other tenets of what MMM talks about. Stuff like sustainability, self sufficiency, and the like. Even he jumped in on this discussion. It is bullshit to use it as an argument against the potential to catch FIRE (cough, cough, excusitis), but there have been a lot of really good and productive discussions that come from somebody posting that question. And just because something is fiction, why shouldn't it be considered? We're pretty close to sending people to mars, and that was pure fiction just a bit ago. ;-)

P.S. This may have come across as a bit strong, but I don't mean to be attacking. I just get a bit disappointed when people dismiss anything out of hand, without fleshing it out (and I mean the concept, not the article).

Kaspian

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2015, 09:20:46 AM »
Quote
but if everyone were to do so, there'd be no production to extract anything from.

Ah, the defenders of our economy saving us from the wickedness of thrift!  The simple "Appeal to Consequences" argument fallacy.  "It's fine if you paint your house red, but if everyone did that we'd run out of red paint and then what would we colour the fire trucks with?!  Nobody would see them coming in an emergency."  Such utter bullshit! 


« Last Edit: February 27, 2015, 09:23:44 AM by Kaspian »

Kaspian

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2015, 09:23:27 AM »
It's pure fiction to even consider it.  I really hate that argument.

Exactamundo!!  It's actually NOT a valid argument, it's a logical fallacy known even by the ancient Greeks.  It would be tossed out of any proper debate court.

Tyler

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2015, 09:34:20 AM »
I chose not to click on the link, because it's obvious that if everyone did it would crash his server.

kib

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2015, 10:05:53 AM »
I chose not to click on the link, because it's obvious that if everyone did it would crash his server.
  :-)

I think the Appeal To Consequences argument is even stupider than it seems on its face.  If everyone did it - for real, if everyone actually adopted a behavior that we realistically know 95% of people are going to avoid - then we'd evolve into a different way of thinking / being and life would still move forward.  Red houses = yellow firetrucks, and once again we go onward and upward, or at least sideways with no catastrophic loss of life.

HazelStone

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2015, 10:11:40 AM »
The author of that piece also makes it out to be...binary.  One more solution is to work part time by choice. Me and Sweetie both like our jobs pretty well- if a million dollars came into our hands we probably wouldn't retire, but would cut back to part time. My Sweetie is a software engineer- his job boils down to putting humans out of work.

Someone has to pick the crops- sure... but in ten or fifteen years I wouldn't be surprised if someone perfected robots to do that. Instead of scores of illegal laborers working 12+ hours in the sun you might have a few people cleaning out the robot pickers each day. There's still work for them. Just not as much, and not so backbreaking. In Genesis it is said that we will earn our bread by the sweat of our brow- it's a lot less sweat if you have a combine harvesting the wheat, a self-driving truck transporting the flour, and a good stand mixer for making the bread... so to speak.

If you have one full time worker replaced by three workers working 2 days a week...there will still be stuff to do for many. Working is beneficial, to a certain extent. Doesn't mean everyone HAS to put in 50 hours just to make ends meet. I am grossly oversimplifying, but I see few here arguing to sit on one's arse all day, doing nothing productive.

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2015, 10:29:04 AM »
Well, I suppose it depends on how much of an understanding of how the economy as a whole works you want. Feel free to hate the argument, but that thought experiment goes into some of the other tenets of what MMM talks about. Stuff like sustainability, self sufficiency, and the like. Even he jumped in on this discussion. It is bullshit to use it as an argument against the potential to catch FIRE (cough, cough, excusitis), but there have been a lot of really good and productive discussions that come from somebody posting that question. And just because something is fiction, why shouldn't it be considered? We're pretty close to sending people to mars, and that was pure fiction just a bit ago. ;-)

P.S. This may have come across as a bit strong, but I don't mean to be attacking. I just get a bit disappointed when people dismiss anything out of hand, without fleshing it out (and I mean the concept, not the article).
Ha! No offense taken.  Jacob has blogged about it too.  Like I said, there's something in some people's head that makes the hypothetical interesting to them.  I can see entertaining the thought experiment, but am unimpressed by it being posed as a critique or a piece of skepticism about the ERE/MMM way.

jordanread

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2015, 11:53:24 AM »
Well, I suppose it depends on how much of an understanding of how the economy as a whole works you want. Feel free to hate the argument, but that thought experiment goes into some of the other tenets of what MMM talks about. Stuff like sustainability, self sufficiency, and the like. Even he jumped in on this discussion. It is bullshit to use it as an argument against the potential to catch FIRE (cough, cough, excusitis), but there have been a lot of really good and productive discussions that come from somebody posting that question. And just because something is fiction, why shouldn't it be considered? We're pretty close to sending people to mars, and that was pure fiction just a bit ago. ;-)

P.S. This may have come across as a bit strong, but I don't mean to be attacking. I just get a bit disappointed when people dismiss anything out of hand, without fleshing it out (and I mean the concept, not the article).
Ha! No offense taken.  Jacob has blogged about it too.  Like I said, there's something in some people's head that makes the hypothetical interesting to them.  I can see entertaining the thought experiment, but am unimpressed by it being posed as a critique or a piece of skepticism about the ERE/MMM way.

Gotcha. I thought about that after I posted. For some reason I thought you were dismissing the entire discussion, but I see that you meant dismissing it as an excuse. To that I totally agree.

I have a tendency to go the route of grandiose thinking when it comes to topics. My therapist said that it is a result of my Narcissism (although he just calls me that since I'm better than he is). The thought that a single person can change the world (or at least the world directly around them) is something that I truly believe. As an example, I'm currently writing software for the health industry, and one of the things that always make the executive team feel uncomfortable and giggle is when I ask them when we are going to use our position to make lasting changes. My new job relates to education, and during the interview, I asked an SVP how they intend to capitalize on being in a position that "holds the fate of the entire human race in it's hands". So yeah, I am one of those who finds thought experiments (and arguments) to be quite valuable when all parties involved are able to articulate well thought out points. There have been many times my own mind has been changed.

tl;dr: I do love me some thought experiments.

Kaspian

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #16 on: February 27, 2015, 12:10:57 PM »
there's something in some people's head that makes the hypothetical interesting to them.  I can see entertaining the thought experiment, but am unimpressed by it being posed as a critique...

^^^ So much this.  Well put!  Hypotheticals are so ridiculous I find them akin to navel-gazing.  They add next no value to an argument at all. 

"Well, if everyone acted like Batman and bought Batmobiles and stuff then there'd be no Joker or criminals and no reason for Batman to exist".
Correct answer:  Don't be stupid.

"Well, if everyone ate just turnips for every meal, then..."
Correct answer:  I thought I told you to stop with the stupid!!

The only one worth really pondering IMO (though I'm pretty sure it will never happen) is, "If everyone in the world consumed the same way a typical American family does, then this planet is truly fucked."  Answer:  Yes, yes it is.
« Last Edit: February 27, 2015, 12:12:45 PM by Kaspian »

jordanread

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #17 on: February 27, 2015, 12:25:37 PM »
"Well, if everyone acted like Batman and bought Batmobiles and stuff then there'd be no Joker or criminals and no reason for Batman to exist".
Correct answer:  Don't be stupid Holy shit that would be awesome.

^ FTFY

Also, your comment just made me think a bit on Navel Gazing...turns out it is also called Omphaloskepsis...which is a really great word.

OSUBearCub

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #18 on: February 27, 2015, 12:38:14 PM »
Also, your comment just made me think a bit on Navel Gazing...turns out it is also called Omphaloskepsis...which is a really great word.

My Word-of-the-Day calendar just slinked off my desk in shame.

jordanread

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #19 on: February 27, 2015, 01:19:22 PM »
Also, your comment just made me think a bit on Navel Gazing...turns out it is also called Omphaloskepsis...which is a really great word.

My Word-of-the-Day calendar just slinked off my desk in shame.

Take that calendar!!!

Internet points to anybody who can use that in a sentence, and posts about it.

AH013

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #20 on: February 27, 2015, 01:42:47 PM »
...Pretty sorry argument the author makes, though.  It is certainly true that if EVERYONE got on the ER path today (although it would never happen) it would be a sudden and severe shock to the economy and things would be pretty rough for a while until everything settled out.  But seeing as this will never happen, we have nothing to worry about.  Sure, everything we consume has to be produced, and someone (or something) must produce it.  But a better capitalized world can automate and streamline more and more of that production. ....

This.  And few people get this.  So many scaremongers never took basic economics.  If everyone consumed 100% of what was produced, we would only ever increase output through additional members of the labor force.  By working harder than required to generate our 100% or requiring less than our 100% we produce, we create excess that reduces the need to expend resources producing consumables and allows for resources to be utilized to improve production capacity.  This snowballs into ever increasing production capacity per capita which allows people to either consume ever increasing quantities of junk with the same amount of work (98% of America) or spend less of their lives working (2%), but doesn't in any way diminish the baseline quality of life.


We may claim to hate the 1%, but if not for them we'd all still be farmers working 8 hour days all year to just try to grow enough food not to starve this winter, instead of being able to live in a world where someone with only minimum wage level skills can generate enough resources in a day to feed themselves for at least 2 weeks if they were smart about it.  A focus on capital over labor improves society, it doesn't destroy it.  The people who fear the impact of those who work hard enough and/or require less resources than they produce then exiting the labor force at some point before death and living off capital returns are idiots who don't understand basic macroeconomics and that these people are ultimately responsible for improving their lives, not ruining it.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #21 on: February 27, 2015, 03:08:34 PM »
John Maynard Keynes envisioned the transition to a leisure class during the coming century way back in 1930 in his 'Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren - http://www.aspeninstitute.org/sites/default/files/content/upload/Intro_Session1.pdf

So not everybody thinks that a nation of rent seekers isn't feasible, just like no-one really thinks compounding productivity and consumption can go on forever.

Quote

Thus for the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well.

The strenuous purposeful money-makers may carry all of us along with them into the lap of economic abundance. But it will be those peoples, who can keep alive, and cultivate into a fuller perfection, the art of life itself and do not sell themselves for the means of life, who will be able to enjoy the abundance when it comes.

...
 
For many ages to come the old Adam will be so strong in us that everybody will need to do some work if he is to be contented. We shall do more things for ourselves than is usual with the rich today, only too glad to have small duties and tasks and routines. But beyond this, we shall endeavour to spread the bread thin on the butter-to make what work there is still to be done to be as widely shared as possible. Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may put off the problem for a great while. For three hours a day is quite enough to satisfy the old Adam in most of us!


jordanread

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #22 on: February 27, 2015, 03:28:30 PM »
John Maynard Keynes envisioned the transition to a leisure class during the coming century way back in 1930 in his 'Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren - http://www.aspeninstitute.org/sites/default/files/content/upload/Intro_Session1.pdf

So not everybody thinks that a nation of rent seekers isn't feasible, just like no-one really thinks compounding productivity and consumption can go on forever.

Quote

Thus for the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well.

The strenuous purposeful money-makers may carry all of us along with them into the lap of economic abundance. But it will be those peoples, who can keep alive, and cultivate into a fuller perfection, the art of life itself and do not sell themselves for the means of life, who will be able to enjoy the abundance when it comes.

...
 
For many ages to come the old Adam will be so strong in us that everybody will need to do some work if he is to be contented. We shall do more things for ourselves than is usual with the rich today, only too glad to have small duties and tasks and routines. But beyond this, we shall endeavour to spread the bread thin on the butter-to make what work there is still to be done to be as widely shared as possible. Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may put off the problem for a great while. For three hours a day is quite enough to satisfy the old Adam in most of us!

I really need to read that book. I didn't realize he went that far.

Monkey Uncle

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #23 on: February 28, 2015, 05:00:37 AM »
And to top it off, the author misused the term "rent seeking."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent-seeking

darkadams00

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #24 on: February 28, 2015, 12:39:13 PM »
First of all, no public policy (even following the writer's lead that MMM is trying to effect a change in society/policy) applies to 100% of the intended parties. People don't sign up (intended parties omitted), and people cheat (unintended parties participate). Every social program has flaws and inefficiencies in design and implementation. So the use of "nobody", "everybody", "none", "never", "always", and such absolutes are invalid based on past experience with policy.

Furthermore, society includes people of all ages at all levels of maturity, education, and occupation. While one group of people is enjoying the fruits of financial freedom, there will be another group who is still working in preparation for their own period of freedom yet to come. And another group is still in school getting ready to start their own period of work. And the cycle continues.

Society is a system, and systems evolve. Neighborhoods near a new tech campus will see housing prices escalate as the market attracts newcomers with increased salaries. As online sales increased, brick-and-mortar stores began to adapt or face bankruptcy. When the model for households moved from single-earner families to dual-earner families, several economic factors changed. There will always be consumption--both of necessity and choice. Once society has tasted the sugary sweetness of discretionary consumption, a diet of widespread financial frugality is as unlikely as a widespread diet of the gastronomic variety. The resulting problems of poor financial choices will no more cause the masses to change direction than bad outcomes from poor food choices cause the masses to change their lifestyle of high intake and low output.

So while the masses continue to make their poor choices, I'll make better ones. No policy change will overcome the lack of financial momentum by the masses without sacrificing the increasing momentum of the motivated few.

Kaspian

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #25 on: March 02, 2015, 12:08:32 PM »

Also, your comment just made me think a bit on Navel Gazing...turns out it is also called Omphaloskepsis...which is a really great word.

I had no idea--that's amazing!  (And a term which perfectly describes 97% of the content on my Facebook feed.)  I would very much love to add this to my repertoire but there's no chance in hell I'd ever remember how to spell it or even pronounce it.

dunhamjr

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #26 on: March 02, 2015, 12:18:24 PM »
yep.
'people' dont like things that inspire change.
'people' cannot get around the thought of 'this is how its always been done', so therefore the ONLY way forward is to keep on keep'n on...

the article glosses over that MMM worked hard for 10 yrs(or more) prior FIRE, which did produce "goods"

the article ignores that MMM still works.  just at his own choice and pace.

the article also ignores a BIG MM idea that if people were to need less, the world could produce less also.

Gerard

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #27 on: March 02, 2015, 07:48:04 PM »
Some anti-MMM arguments remind me of dudes who passionately tell you what the World Bank should do while they're buying Pepsi on credit at the gas station. Omphaloskepsis discourages self-awareness.

MooseOutFront

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #28 on: March 03, 2015, 07:17:21 AM »
Some anti-MMM arguments remind me of dudes who passionately tell you what the World Bank should do while they're buying Pepsi on credit at the gas station. Omphaloskepsis discourages self-awareness.
Ha!  And this Wikipedia picture depicting Omphaloskepsis amused me.



Picture author:
"Satyres en Atlante Rome Louvre 2" by Gregg Tavares - https://www.flickr.com/photos/greggman/4305490456/in/photolist-7ysLj5-a5Vsnw-hGT6T-hGT8v. Licensed under CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Satyres_en_Atlante_Rome_Louvre_2.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Satyres_en_Atlante_Rome_Louvre_2.jpg

Professor Ecks

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #29 on: March 03, 2015, 08:57:55 AM »
"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident."
 
- Arthur Schopenhauer


zephyr911

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Re: Another refutation of MMM
« Reply #30 on: March 03, 2015, 10:25:58 AM »
Some anti-MMM arguments remind me of dudes who passionately tell you what the World Bank should do while they're buying Pepsi on credit at the gas station. Omphaloskepsis discourages self-awareness.
Those don't sound like practitioners of omphaloskepsis, they sound like mindless regurgitators of Internet rants.
Ha!  And this Wikipedia picture depicting Omphaloskepsis amused me.



Picture author:
"Satyres en Atlante Rome Louvre 2" by Gregg Tavares - https://www.flickr.com/photos/greggman/4305490456/in/photolist-7ysLj5-a5Vsnw-hGT6T-hGT8v. Licensed under CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Satyres_en_Atlante_Rome_Louvre_2.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Satyres_en_Atlante_Rome_Louvre_2.jpg
Odd choice of picture. I don't see any belly buttons... looks more like meat-gazing.