Author Topic: 4% rule: what value of your stache?  (Read 4480 times)

bigote2032

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4% rule: what value of your stache?
« on: July 25, 2023, 03:30:51 PM »
Hello folks, I have been on this FIRE ride for a while and in autopilot.

I was introducing a friend to FIRE and he asked me if the 4% you withdraw annually is calculated on the current value of your Stache or the value it was when you first retired (value you used to do the 25 x annual budget FIRE number).  I honestly forgot about it!

You would think that if you retire with 2MIL and in a few years, you have 7MIL, withdrawing annually 4% of the original 2MIL would be a waste of money and you will die with a pile of unused money, I will probably withdraw 4% of the 7MIL if I need the money but not sure if that is breaking the rules of the 4% rule.

Thanks for refreshing my brain!


bacchi

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2023, 03:50:23 PM »
It's based on the original amount and adjusted for inflation.

You can reset it to your current amount but it adds risk.

Ron Scott

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2023, 04:22:57 PM »
There are some oddities to it.

If you have 25 times your desired spend and expect a 30-year retirement you can retire and increase your spend by inflation every year, even if your portfolio drops below the 25X next year.
BUT
If you have 25X and do not retire, and your portfolio drops below 25X. then you cannot retire until it reaches 25X again. So…

It is also based on a belief that the past can predict the future.

MDM

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2023, 05:40:12 PM »
...the 4% you withdraw annually....
Even the authors of the original articles about this don't consider "the 4% rule" to be a good actual withdrawal guide.  It's more of a rule of thumb for when you might have enough to retire, given your desired spending, or a very rough idea of how much you could withdraw and not run out of money.

See Withdrawal methods - Bogleheads, perhaps the Variable-percentage one in particular, for more on actual withdrawal guides.

bigote2032

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2023, 06:05:13 PM »
There are some oddities to it.

If you have 25 times your desired spend and expect a 30-year retirement you can retire and increase your spend by inflation every year, even if your portfolio drops below the 25X next year.
BUT
If you have 25X and do not retire, and your portfolio drops below 25X. then you cannot retire until it reaches 25X again. So…

It is also based on a belief that the past can predict the future.

yeah, the oddities are odd, I mean, say for example inflation is 10%, the Stache does not care if the increase in the withdrawal amount is because of that 10% inflation adjustment or just because you decided to spend more than 4% that year, thanks for your answer :)
« Last Edit: July 25, 2023, 06:17:29 PM by bigote2032 »

bigote2032

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2023, 06:17:09 PM »
...the 4% you withdraw annually....
Even the authors of the original articles about this don't consider "the 4% rule" to be a good actual withdrawal guide.  It's more of a rule of thumb for when you might have enough to retire, given your desired spending, or a very rough idea of how much you could withdraw and not run out of money.

See Withdrawal methods - Bogleheads, perhaps the Variable-percentage one in particular, for more on actual withdrawal guides.

I see, thanks for the link, good to know the options, I think I will end up doing the constant percentage and/or constant-dollar (adjusting for inflation every year)

partgypsy

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2023, 08:09:52 PM »
Please let me know, given that you saved 2 million for retirement, you are expecting after 4% retirement withdrawals after a few years  to have 10 million in the bank what your mutual funds are.

bigote2032

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2023, 08:30:39 PM »
Please let me know, given that you saved 2 million for retirement, you are expecting after 4% retirement withdrawals after a few years  to have 10 million in the bank what your mutual funds are.

Please let me clarify:

1. It was an example, "You would think that if you retire"
2. I said 7 million, not 10 million.
3. The example is not far from reality, remember the crazy run since 2017 to 2021? So many people retired with that crazy growth!
4. IMHO, put all your money in VTSAX and you will eventually make it
« Last Edit: July 25, 2023, 09:54:59 PM by bigote2032 »

secondcor521

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2023, 09:31:37 PM »
What @bacchi said.

A long time ago one of the early FIRE folks called it the "Pay Out Period Reset" idea.  AKA, retire again and again.

See https://retireearlyhomepage.com/popr.html for some color around the notion.

bigote2032

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2023, 09:54:14 PM »
What @bacchi said.

A long time ago one of the early FIRE folks called it the "Pay Out Period Reset" idea.  AKA, retire again and again.

See https://retireearlyhomepage.com/popr.html for some color around the notion.

Thanks for sharing, did not know about this withdrawal strategy, do you have any thoughts about it, would you use it?

Thanks.

secondcor521

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2023, 10:03:02 PM »
What @bacchi said.

A long time ago one of the early FIRE folks called it the "Pay Out Period Reset" idea.  AKA, retire again and again.

See https://retireearlyhomepage.com/popr.html for some color around the notion.

Thanks for sharing, did not know about this withdrawal strategy, do you have any thoughts about it, would you use it?

Thanks.

I understand it.  I like it.  I would, and in fact do, use it. (*)

As @bacchi said and as the web page mentions, if you use this approach, it does a few things:

1.  It allows you to spend more overall.
2.  It reduces the amount of money left over when you die.
3.  If you're spending at a rate that isn't 100% safe, you introduce / increase SORR risk.

(*) In theory, anyway.  I have the odd problem I've mentioned a few times where I don't spend enough in the first place.  I'm 54, paid off house, paid of car, kids' college handled, and my last net withdrawal rate calculation was 1.36%.

frugalor

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2023, 11:56:11 PM »
(*) In theory, anyway.  I have the odd problem I've mentioned a few times where I don't spend enough in the first place.  I'm 54, paid off house, paid of car, kids' college handled, and my last net withdrawal rate calculation was 1.36%.

I think of this issue from time to time.  Spending money is easy.  One can buy a nice house and spend all the savings fast -- but we know not to do that.  Instead, since you have kids, you can set up trust for them and buy VTI for them to educate them about long term investing.  That should up your spending closer to 3 or 4% easily and make it feel worthwhile :)

secondcor521

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2023, 12:07:04 AM »
(*) In theory, anyway.  I have the odd problem I've mentioned a few times where I don't spend enough in the first place.  I'm 54, paid off house, paid of car, kids' college handled, and my last net withdrawal rate calculation was 1.36%.

I think of this issue from time to time.  Spending money is easy.  One can buy a nice house and spend all the savings fast -- but we know not to do that.  Instead, since you have kids, you can set up trust for them and buy VTI for them to educate them about long term investing.  That should up your spending closer to 3 or 4% easily and make it feel worthwhile :)

I'm doing things along those lines.

Educating them about finances has been an ongoing thing for the past 15 years and will continue for the next 15 to 30 years.

It actually sort of compounds the problem though in the end.  Two of them (*) are already making good incomes and all three are saving and investing themselves.

I know my friend @Nords has a similar "problem" with his daughter due more or less to the same root causes.

(*) the third is in their senior year, so we'll have to see what happens with that one in the next year or so.

Ron Scott

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2023, 04:34:04 AM »
.  I'm 54, paid off house, paid off car, kids' college handled, and my last net withdrawal rate calculation was 1.36%.

I still fail to understand the problem with this approach. 

It isn’t designed to rely on magical thinking about historical investment data or even positive real returns. It’s a flexible lifestyle with your options open. If your tastes change and you’d like to live larger you can. And you have a greater capacity to be generous with family and charities.

If living below your means in retirement is a BAD thing I think we’ve entered The Twilight Zone.

slappy

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #14 on: July 26, 2023, 06:42:20 AM »
(*) In theory, anyway.  I have the odd problem I've mentioned a few times where I don't spend enough in the first place.  I'm 54, paid off house, paid of car, kids' college handled, and my last net withdrawal rate calculation was 1.36%.

I think of this issue from time to time.  Spending money is easy.  One can buy a nice house and spend all the savings fast -- but we know not to do that.  Instead, since you have kids, you can set up trust for them and buy VTI for them to educate them about long term investing.  That should up your spending closer to 3 or 4% easily and make it feel worthwhile :)

I'm doing things along those lines.

Educating them about finances has been an ongoing thing for the past 15 years and will continue for the next 15 to 30 years.

It actually sort of compounds the problem though in the end.  Two of them (*) are already making good incomes and all three are saving and investing themselves.

I know my friend @Nords has a similar "problem" with his daughter due more or less to the same root causes.

(*) the third is in their senior year, so we'll have to see what happens with that one in the next year or so.

Did you post this in the mustachian problems thread? :)

Nords

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #15 on: July 26, 2023, 09:47:32 AM »
(*) In theory, anyway.  I have the odd problem I've mentioned a few times where I don't spend enough in the first place.  I'm 54, paid off house, paid of car, kids' college handled, and my last net withdrawal rate calculation was 1.36%.

I think of this issue from time to time.  Spending money is easy.  One can buy a nice house and spend all the savings fast -- but we know not to do that.  Instead, since you have kids, you can set up trust for them and buy VTI for them to educate them about long term investing.  That should up your spending closer to 3 or 4% easily and make it feel worthwhile :)

I'm doing things along those lines.

Educating them about finances has been an ongoing thing for the past 15 years and will continue for the next 15 to 30 years.

It actually sort of compounds the problem though in the end.  Two of them (*) are already making good incomes and all three are saving and investing themselves.

I know my friend @Nords has a similar "problem" with his daughter due more or less to the same root causes.

(*) the third is in their senior year, so we'll have to see what happens with that one in the next year or so.

Did you post this in the mustachian problems thread? :)

I only drop in here once a week or so, but either I’m missing a lot of inside jokes or this thread needs more sarcasm tags.

@secondcor521 and I have been discussing the excess-wealth issue for years-- probably over a decade(!) when you add in our conversations at Early-Retirement .org.

First, let’s all remember that the 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate is just a computer study by Bengen and a few Trinity professors who observed that it had a high probability of succeeding for 30 years.  We’ve all tinkered with those simulations over the last few decades to try to make it even more robust.

Believe it or not, I’ve seen @bigote2032’s $7M scenario over at ESIMoney .com.  ESI has published over 350 Millionaire Interviews, and a few of the people have had their wealth grow much faster than expected after they’ve already reached FI.

SecondCor reached his number and then did an even better job of dialing in his lifestyle expenses.  If Sequence Of Returns Risk doesn’t happen during the first decade of FI then the other side of the 4% SWR is nearly guaranteed:  you have way more money than you need.  That other side happens over 80% of the time anyway, even with a nasty recession or two during the first decade.

In my family, we started our financial independence in 2002 with the 4% SWR and a whole bunch of unknowns.  Most of the bad unknowns never happened and some of the good unknowns did happen.  Our 4% SWR tactics to survive our first decade of FI (and two nasty recessions) set us up for tremendous growth during the second decade.
https://militaryfinancialindependence.com/2017/08/24/hey-nords-hows-net-worth/

We didn’t set up a trust for our daughter.  (We didn’t need to.)  Instead she watched us start our FI lifestyle when she was nine years old, and we kept talking about it (in age-appropriate terms).  She’s in her 30s now and we still talk about it. 

During the Great Recession she also watched a few of her friends (and their families) lose their homes, and she saw lots of scary stories about graduating from high school during that job market.  By the time she started college she’d internalized a burning desire to replicate our lifestyle for herself.  She already had plenty of skills at maintaining a high savings rate-- both by growing her earnings and by cutting out her wasted spending.

I used to joke about passing the torch, but she lit her own bonfire.  You can borrow a library copy of our Money-Savvy Family book (listed in my signature of this post) to read about how she felt while she was growing up in that environment and how it’s turned out.

Now that she’s launched, what else do you do when your wealth grows a lot faster than your lifestyle?

My spouse and I have completely shifted our mindset from scarcity to abundance.  We’re now in our 60s and we’ve done the compounding math for our next 20 years.  We’ve significantly ramped up our gifting and our philanthropy to give away the assets we won’t need.  That’s totally discretionary spending, and it makes us feel good. 

We’ve done the spreadsheet for the rest of our lives, and now we’re going to significantly reduce our wealth during the rest of this decade-- to get back to a 4% SWR.

Our gifting has a practical side for our self-interest:  we’re passing our daughter and son-in-law a little of their inheritance now, while we’re all still around to talk about it.  We want them to be comfortable with handling larger sums of money now, because in the next 20 years they’re going to take over managing our money.  We don’t want them stressing over our eldercare the way I stressed about caring for my father’s finances-- and the way my teen daughter was stressing back then just by watching me deal with it.

secondcor521

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #16 on: July 26, 2023, 11:22:53 AM »
.  I'm 54, paid off house, paid off car, kids' college handled, and my last net withdrawal rate calculation was 1.36%.

I still fail to understand the problem with this approach. 

It isn’t designed to rely on magical thinking about historical investment data or even positive real returns. It’s a flexible lifestyle with your options open. If your tastes change and you’d like to live larger you can. And you have a greater capacity to be generous with family and charities.

If living below your means in retirement is a BAD thing I think we’ve entered The Twilight Zone.

Sounds like it'll work for you then, which is great.

I know @Nords understands.  (Thanks @Nords for the great reply!  I've got your daughter's / your book on hold at my libary!)
« Last Edit: July 26, 2023, 11:26:19 AM by secondcor521 »

Nords

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #17 on: July 26, 2023, 12:20:28 PM »
I know @Nords understands.  (Thanks @Nords for the great reply!  I've got your daughter's / your book on hold at my libary!)
Please let me know what you like (and didn't like), and what else we could discuss!

Her Millionaire Interview will be published on ESIMoney in a few more weeks.  I'm not sure whether it's August or September. 

She's also joined me in the (paid) Millionaire Money Mentor forum.   

secondcor521

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #18 on: July 26, 2023, 03:29:58 PM »
I know @Nords understands.  (Thanks @Nords for the great reply!  I've got your daughter's / your book on hold at my libary!)
Please let me know what you like (and didn't like), and what else we could discuss!

Her Millionaire Interview will be published on ESIMoney in a few more weeks.  I'm not sure whether it's August or September. 

She's also joined me in the (paid) Millionaire Money Mentor forum.   

Will do.

bigote2032

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #19 on: July 26, 2023, 03:31:13 PM »
What @bacchi said.

A long time ago one of the early FIRE folks called it the "Pay Out Period Reset" idea.  AKA, retire again and again.

See https://retireearlyhomepage.com/popr.html for some color around the notion.

Thanks for sharing, did not know about this withdrawal strategy, do you have any thoughts about it, would you use it?

Thanks.

I understand it.  I like it.  I would, and in fact do, use it. (*)

As @bacchi said and as the web page mentions, if you use this approach, it does a few things:

1.  It allows you to spend more overall.
2.  It reduces the amount of money left over when you die.
3.  If you're spending at a rate that isn't 100% safe, you introduce / increase SORR risk.

(*) In theory, anyway.  I have the odd problem I've mentioned a few times where I don't spend enough in the first place.  I'm 54, paid off house, paid of car, kids' college handled, and my last net withdrawal rate calculation was 1.36%.

Ok, so last night I went in the rabbit hole of this variable withdrawal strategy, and I am confused.  I like it but don't know how to use it.

The table on the link below "Success Rates for the Baseline SWR Application" it's supposed to be the key.  However, for withdrawal rates 4% or higher, the success rate is less than 100%, the white papers of researchers suggest that a new retiree using higher than 4% is safe if somebody using the 4% rule drawndown path has the same higher withdrawal rate and similar investment $$.

https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/Nov2020_Research_Marwood_Table2.pdf

So I guess my main question, since I am very interested in using this approach, is how do I find a good SWR higher than 4% that is safe.  I don't want to pick a random one but wanted to be based on the science of this research, I was assuing that the table would give me that but nope.

What do you think? How have you used it?

I want to use probably 4.5% to 6%.  I hope eventually I don't have a need to spend that much like you.  However, I collect guitars and rare spirits so that might be a challenge even when I am 95 years old, haha!

Thanks!

MDM

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #20 on: July 26, 2023, 03:39:50 PM »
...how do I find a good SWR higher than 4% that is safe.
What is your definition of a Safe withdrawal rate?

secondcor521

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #21 on: July 26, 2023, 04:13:34 PM »
What @bacchi said.

A long time ago one of the early FIRE folks called it the "Pay Out Period Reset" idea.  AKA, retire again and again.

See https://retireearlyhomepage.com/popr.html for some color around the notion.

Thanks for sharing, did not know about this withdrawal strategy, do you have any thoughts about it, would you use it?

Thanks.

I understand it.  I like it.  I would, and in fact do, use it. (*)

As @bacchi said and as the web page mentions, if you use this approach, it does a few things:

1.  It allows you to spend more overall.
2.  It reduces the amount of money left over when you die.
3.  If you're spending at a rate that isn't 100% safe, you introduce / increase SORR risk.

(*) In theory, anyway.  I have the odd problem I've mentioned a few times where I don't spend enough in the first place.  I'm 54, paid off house, paid of car, kids' college handled, and my last net withdrawal rate calculation was 1.36%.

Ok, so last night I went in the rabbit hole of this variable withdrawal strategy, and I am confused.  I like it but don't know how to use it.

The table on the link below "Success Rates for the Baseline SWR Application" it's supposed to be the key.  However, for withdrawal rates 4% or higher, the success rate is less than 100%, the white papers of researchers suggest that a new retiree using higher than 4% is safe if somebody using the 4% rule drawndown path has the same higher withdrawal rate and similar investment $$.

https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/Nov2020_Research_Marwood_Table2.pdf

So I guess my main question, since I am very interested in using this approach, is how do I find a good SWR higher than 4% that is safe.  I don't want to pick a random one but wanted to be based on the science of this research, I was assuing that the table would give me that but nope.

What do you think? How have you used it?

I want to use probably 4.5% to 6%.  I hope eventually I don't have a need to spend that much like you.  However, I collect guitars and rare spirits so that might be a challenge even when I am 95 years old, haha!

Thanks!

I'm sorry, but I don't immediately see the connection between the link I gave:

https://retireearlyhomepage.com/popr.html

and the link you referenced:

https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/Nov2020_Research_Marwood_Table2.pdf

I didn't read your link.

But to answer your other questions:

I don't view a rate higher than 4% as safe for longer periods of time, and neither does the link I gave.

As an example of how I would use the POPR model:  Suppose I retired 10 years ago with $1M and planned on a 30 year retirement.  I decide 4% is safe, so I start taking 4% of that $1M or $40K.  Ten years later, suppose my $1M has grown to $2M even after withdrawals and inflation during that decade has been a total of 20% cumulative.  I can "retire again" on my $2M and instead of taking $40K * (1 + 20%) = $48K, I increase my withdrawals to $80K (4% of $2M).

I can do this repeatedly, each year if I want, as long as my chosen rate (4% in the above example) is considered 100% safe and as long as I don't increase the duration.

Even better, if I am willing to shorten my time horizon in the above example, maybe I think 5% is safe for my now 20 years remaining, then I could take $100K (5% of $2M).

...

I've "used it" in the sense that I consider it OK for me to spend 4% of my current portfolio value rather than 4% of my initial FIRE portfolio increased by inflation (which might be less or more - frankly I haven't checked).  I also "use it" in that my FIRE safety calculations are based on age 90, so every passing year means I have one fewer year in my planning horizon.

But I don't use it in practice, because my WR is 1.36% or whatever, so I'm not really spending as much as I consider safe.  So it's sort of irrelevant except that it does give me what I consider a guide to what I could spend or should try to spend.

...

The only ways I know of to successfully use 4.5% to 6% as a WR% in any reasonable way are:

1.  Assume a shorter planning horizon.  4.5% might work for 20 years, and 6% might work for 15 years or so.  This either means you're expecting to die, or have some other income source come online that will cover everything from that point on.

2.  Accept a high risk.  4.5% to 6% might only be historically safe 50% of the time.  If it doesn't work out, then maybe you go back to work when you're older.  Some people make this choice.

3.  Convince yourself that you're a money management genius and you can guarantee you'll exceed market returns significantly or underspend inflation even more significantly.  This one I really don't think is reasonable.

bigote2032

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #22 on: July 26, 2023, 05:16:32 PM »
...how do I find a good SWR higher than 4% that is safe.
What is your definition of a Safe withdrawal rate?

The research is based on the safety of the withdrawal rate in the Trinity Study.  4%.  Based on that, for example, if a person in their six year of retirement withdraws 6% because of 2% extra of accumulated inflation since their first retirement year; that WR is considered safe since the 4% rule allows to increase due to inflation.  Since that 6% is safe, then it is safe for somebody retiring with 6% on their first year (with same amount of money and same retirement years left).  So basically says that it does not matter the reason of the increase (inflation or because you want to buy a new car), it is safe as long as it is equivalent money left and retirement years left.

bigote2032

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #23 on: July 26, 2023, 05:32:32 PM »
What @bacchi said.

A long time ago one of the early FIRE folks called it the "Pay Out Period Reset" idea.  AKA, retire again and again.

See https://retireearlyhomepage.com/popr.html for some color around the notion.

Thanks for sharing, did not know about this withdrawal strategy, do you have any thoughts about it, would you use it?

Thanks.

I understand it.  I like it.  I would, and in fact do, use it. (*)

As @bacchi said and as the web page mentions, if you use this approach, it does a few things:

1.  It allows you to spend more overall.
2.  It reduces the amount of money left over when you die.
3.  If you're spending at a rate that isn't 100% safe, you introduce / increase SORR risk.

(*) In theory, anyway.  I have the odd problem I've mentioned a few times where I don't spend enough in the first place.  I'm 54, paid off house, paid of car, kids' college handled, and my last net withdrawal rate calculation was 1.36%.

Ok, so last night I went in the rabbit hole of this variable withdrawal strategy, and I am confused.  I like it but don't know how to use it.

The table on the link below "Success Rates for the Baseline SWR Application" it's supposed to be the key.  However, for withdrawal rates 4% or higher, the success rate is less than 100%, the white papers of researchers suggest that a new retiree using higher than 4% is safe if somebody using the 4% rule drawndown path has the same higher withdrawal rate and similar investment $$.

https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/Nov2020_Research_Marwood_Table2.pdf

So I guess my main question, since I am very interested in using this approach, is how do I find a good SWR higher than 4% that is safe.  I don't want to pick a random one but wanted to be based on the science of this research, I was assuing that the table would give me that but nope.

What do you think? How have you used it?

I want to use probably 4.5% to 6%.  I hope eventually I don't have a need to spend that much like you.  However, I collect guitars and rare spirits so that might be a challenge even when I am 95 years old, haha!

Thanks!

I'm sorry, but I don't immediately see the connection between the link I gave:

https://retireearlyhomepage.com/popr.html

and the link you referenced:

https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/Nov2020_Research_Marwood_Table2.pdf

I didn't read your link.

But to answer your other questions:

I don't view a rate higher than 4% as safe for longer periods of time, and neither does the link I gave.

As an example of how I would use the POPR model:  Suppose I retired 10 years ago with $1M and planned on a 30 year retirement.  I decide 4% is safe, so I start taking 4% of that $1M or $40K.  Ten years later, suppose my $1M has grown to $2M even after withdrawals and inflation during that decade has been a total of 20% cumulative.  I can "retire again" on my $2M and instead of taking $40K * (1 + 20%) = $48K, I increase my withdrawals to $80K (4% of $2M).

I can do this repeatedly, each year if I want, as long as my chosen rate (4% in the above example) is considered 100% safe and as long as I don't increase the duration.

Even better, if I am willing to shorten my time horizon in the above example, maybe I think 5% is safe for my now 20 years remaining, then I could take $100K (5% of $2M).

...

I've "used it" in the sense that I consider it OK for me to spend 4% of my current portfolio value rather than 4% of my initial FIRE portfolio increased by inflation (which might be less or more - frankly I haven't checked).  I also "use it" in that my FIRE safety calculations are based on age 90, so every passing year means I have one fewer year in my planning horizon.

But I don't use it in practice, because my WR is 1.36% or whatever, so I'm not really spending as much as I consider safe.  So it's sort of irrelevant except that it does give me what I consider a guide to what I could spend or should try to spend.

...

The only ways I know of to successfully use 4.5% to 6% as a WR% in any reasonable way are:

1.  Assume a shorter planning horizon.  4.5% might work for 20 years, and 6% might work for 15 years or so.  This either means you're expecting to die, or have some other income source come online that will cover everything from that point on.

2.  Accept a high risk.  4.5% to 6% might only be historically safe 50% of the time.  If it doesn't work out, then maybe you go back to work when you're older.  Some people make this choice.

3.  Convince yourself that you're a money management genius and you can guarantee you'll exceed market returns significantly or underspend inflation even more significantly.  This one I really don't think is reasonable.

Ah, sorry. I googled variable withdrawal rate and ended up with that article.

Thanks for your insight! Hm, the bottom line is that any increase in the WR will add more risk.  I am just trying to use most of my money, the thing is that we don't have kids and won't have them, so when we are done in this life, we don't really have to leave any money, so trying to be as efficient as possible but at the same time don't run out of money.

There is a book that many people around here recommend "Die with zero", I will read it and hoping it will have an answer for me.

Worst case I will stick to strict 4% rule but just wait more time to retire so the stache can grow more.

Thanks again!!

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #24 on: July 26, 2023, 05:49:03 PM »
I want to use probably 4.5% to 6%.  I hope eventually I don't have a need to spend that much like you.  However, I collect guitars and rare spirits so that might be a challenge even when I am 95 years old, haha!

Thanks!

Worst case I will stick to strict 4% rule but just wait more time to retire so the stache can grow more.

Thanks again!!
You're the one who gets to decide how much you're going to spend in your new financial independence lifestyle. 

You simply have to be willing to work for it.  You have to be willing to trade more life energy (which you may or may not have) for more money (that you might not need).

The 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate gives you a probability of success for a high-equity portfolio lasting at least 30 years. 

If you want to drive the failure rate of the 4% SWR to zero then you should buy an annuity.  The 4% SWR simulation does not include Social Security, so for those who qualify to receive SS their small inflation-adjusted annuity may be all that's necessary to extend that success rate to 100% for longer than 30 years.

Or you could refer to what history considers it would take to guarantee a 100% success rate.  This analysis was written over 20 years ago by another guy who's pretty good at financial independence:
http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/901/hell3.htm

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #25 on: July 26, 2023, 06:21:37 PM »
There is a book that many people around here recommend "Die with zero", I will read it and hoping it will have an answer

You'll find if you read it that the title may be a bit misleading.  It also doesn't help much with the numbers / analytical side of things.

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #26 on: July 26, 2023, 06:25:14 PM »
Based on that, for example, if a person in their six year of retirement withdraws 6% because of 2% extra of accumulated inflation since their first retirement year; that WR is considered safe since the 4% rule allows to increase due to inflation.  Since that 6% is safe, then it is safe for somebody retiring with 6% on their first year (with same amount of money and same retirement years left).  So basically says that it does not matter the reason of the increase (inflation or because you want to buy a new car), it is safe as long as it is equivalent money left and retirement years left.

That's not how it works.  So either you misunderstood or someone has explained it to you inaccurately.  The degree to which your understanding varies from what actually has been researched is probably a significant danger to you safely retiring.

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #27 on: July 26, 2023, 06:35:54 PM »
...how do I find a good SWR higher than 4% that is safe.
What is your definition of a Safe withdrawal rate?
The research is based on the safety of the withdrawal rate in the Trinity Study.  4%.  Based on that, for example, if a person in their six year of retirement withdraws 6% because of 2% extra of accumulated inflation since their first retirement year; that WR is considered safe since the 4% rule allows to increase due to inflation.  Since that 6% is safe, then it is safe for somebody retiring with 6% on their first year (with same amount of money and same retirement years left).  So basically says that it does not matter the reason of the increase (inflation or because you want to buy a new car), it is safe as long as it is equivalent money left and retirement years left.
See secondcor521's comment just prior to this, which is worth understanding on its own.

What I was getting at is "how safe is safe?" in your opinion.  No right or wrong answer.  In other words, what percent of historical cases does an initial withdrawal rate (increased by inflation) have to have succeeded in order for you to decide "safe enough"?  E.g., would it need to be 100%? 90%? 70%? 50%? etc.

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #28 on: July 27, 2023, 06:55:59 AM »
It's based on the original amount and adjusted for inflation.

You can reset it to your current amount but it adds risk.

If your stash has gone done, resetting to 4% of that lower amount reduces risk.  This is one fundamental problem of the 4% rule that I have mentioned before and why it should be something more dynamic that adjusts over time.  Imagine two people with $1M invested in the same way.  Person A retires on Jan 1 and assumes he can live an inflation adjusted $40K forever.  On Jan 2 the market tanks 20% and person B retires.  With his stash at $800K he assumes he can live on an inflation adjusted $32K forever.  Both people have the same assets on Jan 2 ($800K) but two completely different estimates of what they can live on, and two completely different probabilities of success, which is nonsense.  Therefore it stands to reason that the amount you can withdraw must vary with your assets and time horizon.

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #29 on: July 27, 2023, 07:02:57 AM »

3.  If you're spending at a rate that isn't 100% safe, you introduce / increase SORR risk.


Sequence of returns risk is the risk that the market will perform worse than usual for a time, and that can be compounded by how much is withdrawn at that time.  If you're spending at a rate that isn't 100% safe, I don't think you are introducing SORR risk as much as you are simply withdrawing too much.  The overall market return is independent of our own individual financial choices.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2023, 07:04:32 AM by Must_ache »

Must_ache

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #30 on: July 27, 2023, 07:14:17 AM »

The research is based on the safety of the withdrawal rate in the Trinity Study.  4%.  Based on that, for example, if a person in their six year of retirement withdraws 6% because of 2% extra of accumulated inflation since their first retirement year; that WR is considered safe since the 4% rule allows to increase due to inflation.  Since that 6% is safe, then it is safe for somebody retiring with 6% on their first year (with same amount of money and same retirement years left).  So basically says that it does not matter the reason of the increase (inflation or because you want to buy a new car), it is safe as long as it is equivalent money left and retirement years left.

Maybe you should go back and read the study.  It's not very long, and easy to read.

https://static.fmgsuite.com/media/documents/bc618705-6161-4c00-be7f-c667c90c61b5.pdf

First of all, it doesn't generally call things "safe"; it talks about success rates.  On Table 3 it shows that if your time horizon is 30 years and you plan on 4% withdrawals adjusted for inflation, your probability of success would have been 95% with a 100% stocks or 50% stocks/50% bonds based on the 1926-1995 time period.  I would consider 95% to be "likely" but not "safe".  You aren't given the option to drain any excess gains in your portfolio, as that would reduce the success rate when the market went south.  Later Wade Pfau added an additional 14 years to the study and the 95% increased to 96%. 
« Last Edit: July 27, 2023, 07:18:17 AM by Must_ache »

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #31 on: July 27, 2023, 08:45:10 AM »
It doesn't look like anyone has posted the original Bengen analysis: https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/sites/default/files/2021-04/MAR04%20Determining%20Withdrawal%20Rates%20Using%20Historical%20Data.pdf

Quote from: Bengen1994
Clearly, the heavier weighting in stocks in Figure 3(A) has produced some fairly significant improvements. Fully
47 scenario years result in portfolio longevities of the maximum of 50 years, while only 40 scenario years attained
that pinnacle in the earlier chart. The only penalties occur in portfolio year 1966, which is shortened by one year,
from 33 to 32 years, and in 1969, which is shortened from 36 years to 34. All the other scenario years have equal
or greater longevity.

He's made a few updates to the original study: https://www.fa-mag.com/news/how-much-is-enough-10496.html

Quote from: Bengen2012
The individual who retired on January 1, 1969, was the "big loser" in my analysis. Employing the 4.5% initial withdrawal rate, his portfolio was the only one of the 57 to exhaust itself at the end of 30 years. Chart 1 depicts the annual nominal account balances for a 1969 retiree who began with $100,000 in his (not-yet-invented) IRA account. (See Figure 1.)

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #32 on: July 27, 2023, 09:10:06 AM »
It's based on the original amount and adjusted for inflation.

You can reset it to your current amount but it adds risk.

If your stash has gone done, resetting to 4% of that lower amount reduces risk.  This is one fundamental problem of the 4% rule that I have mentioned before and why it should be something more dynamic that adjusts over time.  Imagine two people with $1M invested in the same way.  Person A retires on Jan 1 and assumes he can live an inflation adjusted $40K forever.  On Jan 2 the market tanks 20% and person B retires.  With his stash at $800K he assumes he can live on an inflation adjusted $32K forever.  Both people have the same assets on Jan 2 ($800K) but two completely different estimates of what they can live on, and two completely different probabilities of success, which is nonsense.  Therefore it stands to reason that the amount you can withdraw must vary with your assets and time horizon.

Person A withdraws $40k leaving $960k at the end of 1/1.
Person A, after the market decline, has $768k at the end of 1/2.

Person B, after the market decline, withdraws $32k leaving $768k at the end of 1/2.

Person A is withdrawing more so therefore Person A has more risk. That makes sense.

-------------------
Person A withdraws $40k leaving $960k at the end of 1/1.
Person A, after the market decline, has $768k at the end of 1/2.

Person B, after the market decline, withdraws $40k leaving $760k at the end of 1/2.

Person B has slightly more risk because of the $8k difference at the start of day 3.


I see no nonsense. The $8k difference is from the $200k that was lost before Person B did their withdrawal.

joemandadman189

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #33 on: July 27, 2023, 09:27:49 AM »
the Mad Fientist has a topical post you may enjoy - https://www.madfientist.com/discretionary-withdrawal-strategy/

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #34 on: July 27, 2023, 09:56:01 AM »
Our gifting has a practical side for our self-interest:  we’re passing our daughter and son-in-law a little of their inheritance now, while we’re all still around to talk about it.  We want them to be comfortable with handling larger sums of money now, because in the next 20 years they’re going to take over managing our money.  We don’t want them stressing over our eldercare the way I stressed about caring for my father’s finances-- and the way my teen daughter was stressing back then just by watching me deal with it.

Passing down sound financial knowledge is generational wealth.  The money is just a by-product. :)

Must_ache

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #35 on: July 27, 2023, 11:10:10 AM »
I see no nonsense. The $8k difference is from the $200k that was lost before Person B did their withdrawal.

I didn't say anything about any withdrawal and whether it would occur on 1/1 or 1/2.  My point is that without any withdrawals at all, on 1/3 both people have $800K in their stash and person A expects to withdraw $40K/yr and person B $32K/yr and both are relying on the 4% rule. 

salt cured

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #36 on: July 27, 2023, 11:37:43 AM »
Is there any analysis (or calculator) out there examining the success probabilities of variable withdrawal rates? I'm curious to know to what extent a retiree can increase spending after an initial period of low withdrawals and approximate the risk of the 4% rule.

For example, after 5 years of 2% annual withdrawals, what percent of the original balance could be pulled annual over the next 25 years (all inflation-adjusted, of course) with a ~5% failure risk?

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #37 on: July 27, 2023, 12:08:36 PM »
Is there any analysis (or calculator) out there examining the success probabilities of variable withdrawal rates? I'm curious to know to what extent a retiree can increase spending after an initial period of low withdrawals and approximate the risk of the 4% rule.

For example, after 5 years of 2% annual withdrawals, what percent of the original balance could be pulled annual over the next 25 years (all inflation-adjusted, of course) with a ~5% failure risk?
cfiresim.com has the flexibility you are looking for.  You can add additional spending/savings series or one time events in future years as needed.  For your scenario I get a 4.6% SWR with a 95.12% success rate.  I started with 1M, withdrawing 20k for 30 years, then added a spending series starting 5 years later and adjusted the value until $26k made the success rate 95%.

But if you go back to the original hand wringing and ask, how much can I withdraw THIS year, it gets more fun.  One could safely withdraw 5% of the current value and never run out of principle, but in lean years that 5% might not feed you as it may only be half the spending power you need.  As a result you might want to ask what percent of the balance can I withdraw in the good years, while still being able to safely withdraw the 4% of the original inflation adjusted (floor to spending power) starting point in the bad years?  Does taking out say the greater of 4%of the current value and 4% of the original value (inflation adjusted) create extra risk?

cfiresim.com makes this easy too, and says that choosing the greater of the two numbers does not reduce the success rate, while increasing the average withdrawls to 5.4%.  You might not like living this way, but the general idea is that if you portfolio goes on to be a raging sucess you can safely bump up your spending in the good years.  Just be prepared to tighten the belt again if circumstances mandate it.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2023, 12:33:36 PM by moof »

wageslave23

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #38 on: July 27, 2023, 12:10:48 PM »
It's based on the original amount and adjusted for inflation.

You can reset it to your current amount but it adds risk.

If your stash has gone done, resetting to 4% of that lower amount reduces risk.  This is one fundamental problem of the 4% rule that I have mentioned before and why it should be something more dynamic that adjusts over time.  Imagine two people with $1M invested in the same way.  Person A retires on Jan 1 and assumes he can live an inflation adjusted $40K forever.  On Jan 2 the market tanks 20% and person B retires.  With his stash at $800K he assumes he can live on an inflation adjusted $32K forever.  Both people have the same assets on Jan 2 ($800K) but two completely different estimates of what they can live on, and two completely different probabilities of success, which is nonsense.  Therefore it stands to reason that the amount you can withdraw must vary with your assets and time horizon.

When person A retired they had a 4% risk of failure. After the 20% drop their risk of failure increased. What's so hard to understand about that? Have you ever played poker? You might have pocket aces and 90% chance to win but then the flop gives someone 3 of a kind, now your chances are lower. Now instead of having a 4% chance of failure, person A has a 10% risk of failure and person B has a 4% risk of failure. Your failure chances are dynamic and always changing every day after you retire, it's not fixed.

Sometimes I worry about people who are trying to FIRE without a full deck.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2023, 12:17:00 PM by wageslave23 »

frugalor

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #39 on: July 27, 2023, 12:41:28 PM »
For your scenario I get a 4.6% SWR with a 95.12% success rate.  I started with 1M, withdrawing 20k for 30 years, then added a spending series starting 5 years later and adjusted the value until $26k made the success rate 95%.

20K of 1M is 2%, 26K is 2.6%, right?  You only get 95% success rate for such a low WR?

Must_ache

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #40 on: July 27, 2023, 12:42:10 PM »

When person A retired they had a 4% risk of failure. After the 20% drop their risk of failure increased. What's so hard to understand about that? Have you ever played poker? You might have pocket aces and 90% chance to win but then the flop gives someone 3 of a kind, now your chances are lower. Now instead of having a 4% chance of failure, person A has a 10% risk of failure and person B has a 4% risk of failure. Your failure chances are dynamic and always changing every day after you retire, it's not fixed.

Sometimes I worry about people who are trying to FIRE without a full deck.

I don't intend to gamble with my retirement. 
My point is that the spending each year should be dynamic.  If you run cfiresim with its default inputs, there is a 4.07% failure rate.  Now change the initial portfolio to $800K and the failure rate changes to 25.2%.  I think at some point when the failure rate gets high enough there either needs to be a reduction in spending or an increase in income (in this case a reduction in spending to $32K)

wageslave23

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #41 on: July 27, 2023, 12:45:51 PM »

When person A retired they had a 4% risk of failure. After the 20% drop their risk of failure increased. What's so hard to understand about that? Have you ever played poker? You might have pocket aces and 90% chance to win but then the flop gives someone 3 of a kind, now your chances are lower. Now instead of having a 4% chance of failure, person A has a 10% risk of failure and person B has a 4% risk of failure. Your failure chances are dynamic and always changing every day after you retire, it's not fixed.

Sometimes I worry about people who are trying to FIRE without a full deck.

I don't intend to gamble with my retirement. 
My point is that the spending each year should be dynamic.  If you run cfiresim with its default inputs, there is a 4.07% failure rate.  Now change the initial portfolio to $800K and the failure rate changes to 25.2%.  I think at some point when the failure rate gets high enough there either needs to be a reduction in spending or an increase in income (in this case a reduction in spending to $32K)

I dont think anyone would argue with you. If your portfolio decreases by 20%, you probably need to make adjustments.

moof

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #42 on: July 27, 2023, 12:46:48 PM »
...

When person A retired they had a 4% risk of failure. After the 20% drop their risk of failure increased. What's so hard to understand about that? Have you ever played poker? You might have pocket aces and 90% chance to win but then the flop gives someone 3 of a kind, now your chances are lower. Now instead of having a 4% chance of failure, person A has a 10% risk of failure and person B has a 4% risk of failure. Your failure chances are dynamic and always changing every day after you retire, it's not fixed.

Sometimes I worry about people who are trying to FIRE without a full deck.

4% is indeed just a guideline, and assumes you know NOTHING about current world events.  If you think stocks are very frothy or in bubble territory and your savings just finally crossed your "number", there is a decently high chance you are in that 5% of failing scenarios if you use that as the trigger to retire, and your odd of failure are more like 20-30% (others have posted simulations based on the trigger approach).  If stocks just got clobbered by 20% in the prior year, there are strongly lower odds it will drop another 20% in the subsequent year (reversion to mean, which Monte-Carlo simulations do not account for).

I think the conclusion others came to was that if you are using a trigger approach you might want to aim for 3-3.5% as the safer target, or at least do a gut check as to whether you feel your stache's value feels "durable" enough given that you have some insight as to current events.

If you instead take the approach of coming up with a plan of retiring at specific future year, and save according to that plan, don't pull the trigger early, and keep your eyes open for major warnings signs when you do hit your target date, you'll be fine.

Still, 4% is a great starting point to the age old question of "Do I have enough to retire?", but also a problematic end point.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2023, 12:54:19 PM by moof »

wageslave23

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #43 on: July 27, 2023, 12:50:55 PM »
...

When person A retired they had a 4% risk of failure. After the 20% drop their risk of failure increased. What's so hard to understand about that? Have you ever played poker? You might have pocket aces and 90% chance to win but then the flop gives someone 3 of a kind, now your chances are lower. Now instead of having a 4% chance of failure, person A has a 10% risk of failure and person B has a 4% risk of failure. Your failure chances are dynamic and always changing every day after you retire, it's not fixed.

Sometimes I worry about people who are trying to FIRE without a full deck.

4% is indeed just a guideline, and assumes you know NOTHING about current world events.  If you think stocks are very frothy or in bubble territory and your savings just finally crossed your "number", there is a decently high chance you are in that 5% of failing scenarios if you use that as the trigger to retire, and your odd of failure are more like 20-30% (others have posted simulations based on the trigger approach).  If stocks just got clobbered by 20% in the prior year, there are strongly lower odds it will drop another 20% in the subsequent year (reversion to mean, which Monte-Carlo simulations do not account for).

I think the conclusion others came to was that if you are using a trigger approach you might want to aim for 3-3.5% as the safer target, or at least do a gut check as to whether you feel your stache's value feels "durable" enough.

Still, 4% is a great starting point to the age old question of "Do I have enough to retire?", but also a problematic end point.

Earlyretirementnow.com has a nice series on equity valuations and adjusting failure risk. 3.5% is usually the sweet spot for high valuations like we currently have.

salt cured

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #44 on: July 27, 2023, 03:06:12 PM »
Is there any analysis (or calculator) out there examining the success probabilities of variable withdrawal rates? I'm curious to know to what extent a retiree can increase spending after an initial period of low withdrawals and approximate the risk of the 4% rule.

For example, after 5 years of 2% annual withdrawals, what percent of the original balance could be pulled annual over the next 25 years (all inflation-adjusted, of course) with a ~5% failure risk?
cfiresim.com has the flexibility you are looking for.  You can add additional spending/savings series or one time events in future years as needed.  For your scenario I get a 4.6% SWR with a 95.12% success rate.  I started with 1M, withdrawing 20k for 30 years, then added a spending series starting 5 years later and adjusted the value until $26k made the success rate 95%.

But if you go back to the original hand wringing and ask, how much can I withdraw THIS year, it gets more fun.  One could safely withdraw 5% of the current value and never run out of principle, but in lean years that 5% might not feed you as it may only be half the spending power you need.  As a result you might want to ask what percent of the balance can I withdraw in the good years, while still being able to safely withdraw the 4% of the original inflation adjusted (floor to spending power) starting point in the bad years?  Does taking out say the greater of 4%of the current value and 4% of the original value (inflation adjusted) create extra risk?

cfiresim.com makes this easy too, and says that choosing the greater of the two numbers does not reduce the success rate, while increasing the average withdrawls to 5.4%.  You might not like living this way, but the general idea is that if you portfolio goes on to be a raging sucess you can safely bump up your spending in the good years.  Just be prepared to tighten the belt again if circumstances mandate it.

Thank you.

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #45 on: November 11, 2023, 03:53:13 PM »
I know @Nords understands.  (Thanks @Nords for the great reply!  I've got your daughter's / your book on hold at my libary!)
Please let me know what you like (and didn't like), and what else we could discuss!

Will do.

@Nords,

I finally finished your/her book.

First, I think I may not be in the center of the target audience.  My kids are 28/23/21 and so I'm past the point of using most of the lessons in the book (except the last chapter on estate stuff).  And no grandkids yet and probably not for a long time and perhaps not ever.

It did seem for the first half of the book that you didn't really mention any mistakes that you made.  I was beginning to think that you guys were perfect and everything was smooth sailing and that your book didn't apply to me since I made mistakes and plenty of them.  However, about half way through (I think Carol was a teenager) you started to mention some (more?) mistakes, and those I found helpful to think about from a "how to recover from a mistake" perspective.

Two minor nits if you're doing a second edition:  Somewhere Carol mentions "account conversions" where I think she means Roth conversions.  She also mentions hospice in a way that implies it's expensive; it usually is not expensive at all and is very well covered by regular health insurance.

Overall, I like the back and forth and conversational style of the book.  It made it very easy to read, especially with my style of reading a bit at a time (as I rotate among five books that I read at a time).  I also appreciated the occasional nods to more modern and techy ways of doing things - even though I didn't do them with my kids, they might work better with grandkids.

I also appreciated the underlying notion of aligning incentives that you used in several different ways.  I did similarly with my three.

Nords

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #46 on: November 11, 2023, 04:59:05 PM »
Excellent, thank you for the feedback!

I'm going to have to ask Carol more curiosity questions about our parenting mistakes.  I'd hate to think that she was smoldering with resentment for her first 12 years and then finally let it out as a teen... and I agree how unlikely it is that we had 12 consecutive years of successful parenting.

I appreciate your comment on the back & forth style.  Our developmental editor hated it because it's apparently very difficult to do, and they strongly recommended the "unified voice" of team writing.  We pushed back hard.  Once we'd set that editing boundary, we were (rightfully) called out on every little mistake that we made with the format.

secondcor521

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #47 on: November 11, 2023, 05:13:25 PM »
It's probably that nobody remembers what happened when the kids are young.  It was so long ago, and everyone was tired! :)

flyingaway

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #48 on: November 12, 2023, 08:03:29 AM »
There are some oddities to it.

If you have 25 times your desired spend and expect a 30-year retirement you can retire and increase your spend by inflation every year, even if your portfolio drops below the 25X next year.
BUT
If you have 25X and do not retire, and your portfolio drops below 25X. then you cannot retire until it reaches 25X again. So…

It is also based on a belief that the past can predict the future.

Maybe you can still retire in this case because you have fewer years to support.

flyingaway

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Re: 4% rule: what value of your stache?
« Reply #49 on: November 12, 2023, 08:11:08 AM »


I understand it.  I like it.  I would, and in fact do, use it. (*)

As @bacchi said and as the web page mentions, if you use this approach, it does a few things:

1.  It allows you to spend more overall.
2.  It reduces the amount of money left over when you die.
3.  If you're spending at a rate that isn't 100% safe, you introduce / increase SORR risk.

(*) In theory, anyway.  I have the odd problem I've mentioned a few times where I don't spend enough in the first place.  I'm 54, paid off house, paid of car, kids' college handled, and my last net withdrawal rate calculation was 1.36%.

If you don't spend your money now, it gets more difficult to spend later as you age. My father died in August at the age of 91.5, and he left to my sister 15 years of spending money and 3 apartments. But he was very frugal in his entire life and was talking about his money the day before he died.