Hi Frugal_c,
I hadn't thought about the issues caused by decreased dividend payouts driving faster earnings growth (more profit invested in growing the company), which would naturally drive PE a bit higher, thanks!
I am in complete agreement with you that, even with all the considerations we can throw in (GAAP changes, dividend policy changes, great recession still being on the books for another couple of years), valuations are high right now, suggesting we're unlikely to end up at the rosy end of the range of scenarios that can be produced by simulations picking random start years back through US history.