Author Topic: 2030 FIRE Cohort  (Read 200256 times)

dogboyslim

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #500 on: November 11, 2019, 08:16:57 AM »
Target date is my birthday in May 2030.  I will be 56.  Presently have 187 days of 365 funded (51%).  At retirement that will be 540 of 365 days (148%).  I will hit my expected full funding in October 2025.

I'm sticking around longer due to kids college expense and health care expense uncertainty.
3,877 days to go.  2,770 weekdays.  554 weeks. 10.6 years.

192 Days/ 52.6% funded.
3836 days.  2741 weekdays. 548 weeks.  10.5 years.


DadJokes

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #501 on: November 19, 2019, 09:58:27 AM »
Target date is my birthday in May 2030.  I will be 56.  Presently have 187 days of 365 funded (51%).  At retirement that will be 540 of 365 days (148%).  I will hit my expected full funding in October 2025.

I'm sticking around longer due to kids college expense and health care expense uncertainty.
3,877 days to go.  2,770 weekdays.  554 weeks. 10.6 years.

192 Days/ 52.6% funded.
3836 days.  2741 weekdays. 548 weeks.  10.5 years.

Uncertainty about college & healthcare are a definite annoyance for long-term planning, but I guess it's better than being an uncertainty for short-term planning...

Mgmny

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #502 on: December 13, 2019, 12:36:55 PM »
Who's ready for end of year updates on progress and tracking towards 2030?!

dogboyslim

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #503 on: December 13, 2019, 02:04:56 PM »
Target date is my birthday in May 2030.  I will be 56.  Presently have 187 days of 365 funded (51%).  At retirement that will be 540 of 365 days (148%).  I will hit my expected full funding in October 2025.

I'm sticking around longer due to kids college expense and health care expense uncertainty.
3,877 days to go.  2,770 weekdays.  554 weeks. 10.6 years.

192 Days/ 52.6% funded.
3836 days.  2741 weekdays. 548 weeks.  10.5 years.

Year end will be about (I'll edit if stock market goes crazy up or down to change this):
200 Days/54.8% Funded. 
3786 days. 2705 weekdays.  541 weeks. 10.4 years.

terrifictim

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #504 on: December 13, 2019, 02:58:13 PM »
Hi All,

Joining this cohort as motivation. My case study (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/case-studies/case-study-29-and-a-recent-mmm-enthusiast-can-i-be-fire-by-40/) has more details so I'll just summarize below:
  • I'm 30, DW is 28, No kids currently but planning on 1-2in next couple of years
  • I'm an engineer, she's a teacher
  • Assets are primary residence, rental property, and investments
  • Liabilities are two mortgages + car loan

I like the X * Expenses Ratio approach. We are currently in the Don't Payoff Mortgage Club - but our expenses for FIRE will be without mortgage. Also made a reasonable assumption about cost of kids - we'll see how that turns out :)
X= Est. FIRE Stache (Comes from Personal Capital Projections). $60k per year
Jan 1 2018: 3x (Actual 2.9x)
Jan 1 2019: 4x (Actual 5.0x - Accounts for Equity of Rental Property but Not Primary Home)

Jan 1 2020: 5.7x (Projected 7.0x)
Jan 1 2021: 7.5x (Projected 9.0x)
Jan 1 2022: 10x (Projected 10.4x)
Jan 1 2023: 11.6x (Projected 11.9x)
Jan 1 2024: 13.3x (Projected 13.5x)
Jan 1 2025: 15x (Projected 15.2x)
Jan 1 2026: 16.6x (Projected 16.9x)
Jan 1 2027: 18.3x (Projected 18.5x)
Jan 1 2028: 20x (Projected 20.4x)
Jan 1 2029: 22x (Projected 22.6x)
Jan 1 2030: 23.7x (Projected 26.2x)
Jan 1 2031: 25.5x ( I will be 43, DW 41) (Projected 28.8x)

Mgmny

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #505 on: December 16, 2019, 07:55:23 AM »
I'm stealing Haypug's post:

Year End Update

X= Yearly Expenses
2017 - Stache at 1x   $50,000 - Ending Balance $217,000
2018 - Stache at 2x   $100,000 - Ending Balance $314,000 = 6.3x expenses
2019 - Stache at 2.5x   $150,000
2020 - Stache at 4x   $200,000
2021 - Stache at 6x  $300,000
   
2022 - Stache at 8x   $400,000
2023 - Stache at 10x   $500,000
2024 - Stache at 12x   $600,000
2025 - Stache at 14x   $700,000
2026 - Stache at 16x   $800,000
2027 - Stache at 18x   $900,000
2028 - Stache at 20x   $1,000,000
2029 - Stache at 22x   $1,100,000
2030 - Retire by end of year with 25x yearly expense rate $1,250,000

We gave birth to our son in November 2018, and we'll see if my wife keeps working, and if so for how long. We are through 2021 in terms of numbers which puts us in a good position for 2030 (3 years ahead), but if she quits working, those multipliers will catch up fast!

My stache includes all net worth (equities, cash, and home equity) because my FIRE number assumes a mortgage payment, so my home equity could be cashed out for this purpose.

Just sold our house and got a bit more than we thought we would for it, so updating my numbers as a "Mid Year" mark because we crossed off another year (trending past 2022).

Rough numbers:
Retirement / Investment: $200,000
Real Estate: $170,000k
Cash/Savings/Emergency: $35,000

Mid-Year End Update

X= Yearly Expenses
2017 - Stache at 1x   $50,000 - Ending Balance $217,000
2018 - Stache at 2x   $100,000 - Ending Balance $314,000 = 6.3x expenses
2019 - Stache at 2.5x   $150,000
2020 - Stache at 4x   $200,000
2021 - Stache at 6x  $300,000
2022 - Stache at 8x   $400,000

2023 - Stache at 10x   $500,000
2024 - Stache at 12x   $600,000
2025 - Stache at 14x   $700,000
2026 - Stache at 16x   $800,000
2027 - Stache at 18x   $900,000
2028 - Stache at 20x   $1,000,000
2029 - Stache at 22x   $1,100,000
2030 - Retire by end of year with 25x yearly expense rate $1,250,000

2019 Year End update!

So, over the last year i have come to realized i was tracking against my NW, when really i should have been looking at my portfolio only. With that in mind, then I need to adjust some of my progress backwards... :(

My portfolio definitely still grew in 2019, but I did withdraw 30k to use towards a downpayment on a house, and because i was tracking NW instead of portfolio, my number goes down a bit. Here we go for 2019 (even though there are still 2 weeks left!!)

Year End Update

X= Yearly Expenses
2017 - Stache at 1x   $50,000 - Ending Balance $63,000 (but missing 1 account from tracking)
2018 - Stache at 2x   $100,000 - Ending Balance $165,000 = 3.3x expenses (Missing account got added to personal capital, so historical data is accurate)
2019 - Stache at 2.5x   $150,000 - Ending Balance $236,000 =   4.7x expenses
2020 - Stache at 4x   $200,000

2021 - Stache at 6x  $300,000
2022 - Stache at 8x   $400,000
2023 - Stache at 10x   $500,000
2024 - Stache at 12x   $600,000
2025 - Stache at 14x   $700,000
2026 - Stache at 16x   $800,000
2027 - Stache at 18x   $900,000
2028 - Stache at 20x   $1,000,000
2029 - Stache at 22x   $1,100,000
2030 - Retire by end of year with 25x yearly expense rate $1,250,000

NW is at $418,000 with cash accounts and home equity added to the investment portfolio above.

Because i was using NW instead of investment portfolio, my confidence in staying on track is shaking a little bit, but i'm still about 1.5 years "ahead," but if my wife quits working, it will be tough! After i took out $30k for home purchase from the stash, i can definitely see a hit - that's over 10% of my total portfolio!

My year end will probably end up closer to 245k as i know my wife will have another 3k of 401k contributions, and i have another $1k in HSA contribution left for the year!

NW Breakdown:
Home Value: $415,000
Mortgage: $247,000
Cash: $15,000
Investment: $238,000



« Last Edit: December 19, 2019, 09:01:36 AM by Mgmny »

teacherwithamustache

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #506 on: December 17, 2019, 08:33:04 AM »
Locked into 2030 due to pension eligibility.  I will actually retire 1/02/2031 but this group is close enough.  Wife and I Pension will go into effect at same time and replace 68% of our income.  With our savings rate we will be richer in retirement then we will be while working.

                                          2020                             2030 Goal
Checking                               30K                               30K
Savings                                 22K                               22K
Inv outside retirement acct     105K                             375K
IRA Both                               160K                             650K
House Equity                         100K                             280K
529 Kid 1  (7 years out)           70K
529 Kid 2  (9 Years Out)          42K

Plan is to spend 50K a year outside of pension from our non retirement accts for first decade to let our IRA's continue to grow.  Anticipate making 15K a year in fun projects/side hustles for first decade of retirement.

Steeze

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #507 on: December 18, 2019, 08:44:24 PM »
Started the year with 90k invested and 10k cash, and paid off condo.
Goal was 180k invested, 30k cash
Ending the year with 200k invested, 30k cash (spend around 40k)
Next year shooting for 300k invested and 50k cash
Cash is there as an opportunity fund, may purchase a rental?

2030 goal 1500k invested, 60k cash, 500k equity, 2x new paid off cars
Will settle for 1250k, 50k cash, 300k equity, 2x new cars paid

A lot of work to do in just 10 years! Good luck to all !
Will see if we are blessed with a child this year.
Goals above assume we are DINKS, but that won’t last.

Mgmny

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #508 on: December 19, 2019, 07:24:24 AM »
Started the year with 90k invested and 10k cash, and paid off condo.
Goal was 180k invested, 30k cash
Ending the year with 200k invested, 30k cash (spend around 40k)
Next year shooting for 300k invested and 50k cash
Cash is there as an opportunity fund, may purchase a rental?

2030 goal 1500k invested, 60k cash, 500k equity, 2x new paid off cars
Will settle for 1250k, 50k cash, 300k equity, 2x new cars paid

A lot of work to do in just 10 years! Good luck to all !
Will see if we are blessed with a child this year.
Goals above assume we are DINKS, but that won’t last.

Dayummmmmm!! Great work! [more than!] Doubling your investment portfolio in 1 year?! Nice!

Now... just keep that up for a decade! :D


haypug16

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #509 on: December 19, 2019, 08:09:28 AM »
Not quite year end but I have reached my goal of 2.5x expenses and I still have one more 401k contribution of $1.1k scheduled for 12/31.

2020 goal is to get to 4x expenses which will be adding $36.5k. Plan of attack is max 401k $19,500 + $2,300 in employee matching contributions + Max Roth IRA $6k and then $8.7k in non-tax sheltered investments and gains. Hoping the gains will be as good as this year (nearly $9K for the year)

Steeze

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #510 on: December 19, 2019, 12:11:06 PM »
Started the year with 90k invested and 10k cash, and paid off condo.
Goal was 180k invested, 30k cash
Ending the year with 200k invested, 30k cash (spend around 40k)
Next year shooting for 300k invested and 50k cash
Cash is there as an opportunity fund, may purchase a rental?

2030 goal 1500k invested, 60k cash, 500k equity, 2x new paid off cars
Will settle for 1250k, 50k cash, 300k equity, 2x new cars paid

A lot of work to do in just 10 years! Good luck to all !
Will see if we are blessed with a child this year.
Goals above assume we are DINKS, but that won’t last.

Dayummmmmm!! Great work! [more than!] Doubling your investment portfolio in 1 year?! Nice!

Now... just keep that up for a decade! :D

Thanks! No rent/mortgage this year, and DW’s first two years out of grad school/making money are helping set a good pace.

Decade is a long time! We have at least a year more at this pace, but we will try for kid #1 this year, so my plans beyond that are a bit shaky. Not sure if DW will be a SAHP for a year or three.

Plus a potential 5 year plan of moving out of NYC - anything could happen.

x02947

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #511 on: December 31, 2019, 07:37:44 AM »
Technically 2019 spending was *way* above 2018 spending, but that’s because we took a family vacation to Hawaii, bought a (new to us) van, redid/upgraded our laundry room, and had some health issues.  But those are all covered in the multiyear budget, so as long as we don’t do it again in the next few years we’ll be good. 

Taking the one-offs out, 2019 spending was basically only $200 higher, or possibly even $100 lower, depending on how you count things like charity, required employee retirement contributions, etc.  So I’ll take it. 

Savings wise we’re at 3% above projected, plus we started/maxed out an HSA, which I need to figure out how to incorporate into my plan.  Do you include that as part of your 25x expenses?  If not, then aren’t you just tricking yourself into a super-duper SWR? Plus we fired the financial advisor, so that’s an automatic 1.3% gain.  I'm tempted to set a goal of paying off my mortgage by the time my oldest graduates high-school- that would mean I need to come up with an extra $3k/year somewhere...

Frugal wise, we’ve had a decent year.  Started biking for local trips around the neighborhood.  I want to start commuting by bike, but still trying to win DW over on that one.  We are going to get a small garden going in the spring.  I’ve set a goal of changing the oil in our cars this year - take my man card away, I’ve never actually done that before. 

...
 but we will try for kid #1 this year, so my plans beyond that are a bit shaky. Not sure if DW will be a SAHP for a year or three.
...

Careful!  Any non-frugal extended family members have a way of butting into your life once kids come along!  No, you don't need a brand new crib, AND all brand new outfits, AND a brand new high chair, AND on and on.  But seriously, good luck!
« Last Edit: December 31, 2019, 07:45:04 AM by x02947 »

haypug16

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #512 on: December 31, 2019, 08:54:26 AM »
Year End 2019 update
X= Yearly Expenses

2017 - Stache at 1.17x  - Ending Balance $29,448.59
2018 - Stache at 1.41x  - Ending Balance $35,167.30
2019 - Stache at 2.628x - Ending Balance $65,693.78

Ending the year about $3k over my goal which feels great. 2020 goal is to hit $100K in retirement savings. This will come from $19,500 in 401k, $2k in employee conributions, $6k in a Roth IRA for 2019,and if I can swing it I'll do another $6k for 2020 before year end and the rest in dividends/market gains, maybe even post-tax investments if I happen to have a bunch of cash lying around ;P

I also need to cut back on my expenses a bit. 2019 ended up being a bit more spendy than 2018 but not as spendy as 2017 (the year I took a 3 week vacation in Hawaii and my cat got really sick while we were away!) This year we just had a baby which was not too expensive. Lots of hand me downs, used  online items, and gifts. My goal is to spend $25k and I've been a few thousand over that number the past couple years so I either need to make sure I can get my expenses down or I need to adjust my FIRE number up from $625k to $750k. I'll make it a goal to figure that out this year. It probably wouldn't hurt to up my number a bit maybe split the difference.

Here's to a great 2020. :D

DadJokes

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #513 on: January 01, 2020, 08:32:28 AM »
A decade to go! 2019 was very friendly for investing, so we comfortably overshot our goal for the year.

Year              Net Worth           Investments        % to FI               
201860,89819,8121.32%
2019130,850 137,26575,659 80,6195.04% 5.35%
2020206k135k8.9%
2021283k195k12.6%
2022369k264k16.8%
2023482k342k21.3%
2024592k430k26.3%
2025713k529k31.7%
2026848k640k37.6%
2027997k764k44%
20281.162m902k50.9%
20291.344m1.057m58.4%
20301.545m1.229m66.6%

Assumptions:
Annual 3% pay increase, 75% of which goes to investments
9% market returns
2% inflation
Home equity & increased value is not included in investments
Pension is not included in investments; it looks like its value in 2030 will be about $100k.

66% FI is a withdrawal rate of 6%, which could be safe depending on the value of the pension. It's also highly unlikely that both my wife and I will quit working at the same time with neither of us earning another dime. We also have a child who will be 12 by then, so I'm sure there will be expenses associated with him. At least, people keep telling me that children are expensive, but I haven't seen any evidence of it yet.

Road2Freedom

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #514 on: January 01, 2020, 10:00:31 AM »
Happy New Year to everyone on here!

Net worth: $581,483

We have no debt and currently rent.

Happy 2020!  A lot of changes for us this year.  Our son graduated HS in May and we bought a home in Sept.  Ended up putting a chunk of money into it to replace flooring and some other items around the house.

I also got back into sports cards as a hobby / side hustle opportunity.  Been tracking purchases and will be curious to see what type of return I'll get when I start selling.

Anyhow, we benefited quite a bit due to last year's market gains and investing in our 401Ks, HSAs, and IRAs.

Net worth:  $778,174 (doesn't include home equity or sports card side hustle)
« Last Edit: January 01, 2020, 10:06:26 AM by Road2Freedom »

Chrissy

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #515 on: January 01, 2020, 08:07:57 PM »
When I posted in October, I must've been using October numbers for each year.  Here are EOY numbers:

2015:  $604k, got married
2016:  $724k, Warrior Princess arrived
2017:  $860k
2018:  $900k, Chunky Baby arrived
2019:  $977k

Invested:  $580k
529s:  $104k
Cash:  $42k

The remainder is a car and some home equity.  We underwent a VERY costly home renovation this year.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2020, 07:27:17 AM by Chrissy »

Mgmny

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #516 on: January 02, 2020, 07:05:32 AM »
It's so interesting to see how we all have the same date in mind, but our portfolios/progress are all over the map.

Some of you already have others in this thread's FI number, but with a decade left to go!! How exciting!

haypug16

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #517 on: January 02, 2020, 07:57:56 AM »
It's so interesting to see how we all have the same date in mind, but our portfolios/progress are all over the map.

Some of you already have others in this thread's FI number, but with a decade left to go!! How exciting!

I was just thinking the same thing. I have a lean FIRE number so I tend to think I'm way behind but then I just have to remind myself that everyone's situations are different. My number doesn't include Home Equity (don't plan on selling) or Mr Pugs half of the pot (we keep our finances seperate) Our mortgage is super low due to great timing on Mr Pugs part so I don't have super high expenses. Plus if it only took MMM 10 years starting at zero I should be able to do it in 13 (I found MMM in 2017)

Road2Freedom

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #518 on: January 02, 2020, 09:10:06 AM »
It's so interesting to see how we all have the same date in mind, but our portfolios/progress are all over the map.

Some of you already have others in this thread's FI number, but with a decade left to go!! How exciting!

I was just thinking the same thing. I have a lean FIRE number so I tend to think I'm way behind but then I just have to remind myself that everyone's situations are different. My number doesn't include Home Equity (don't plan on selling) or Mr Pugs half of the pot (we keep our finances seperate) Our mortgage is super low due to great timing on Mr Pugs part so I don't have super high expenses. Plus if it only took MMM 10 years starting at zero I should be able to do it in 13 (I found MMM in 2017)

You're definitely a lot further along based on that info.  Ours is combined and nowhere near paying off our home (and don't intend to pay it off aggressively as I'd rather put that money into the market or have access to if needed).  I can only imagine our expenses will go down when our son graduates college.  Healthcare is the major expense that we'll have to consider when we do FIRE.

x02947

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #519 on: January 03, 2020, 07:12:55 AM »
I'm just being optimistic :)  Shoot for the moon and all that.   

But I do have a pension in the equation, tied to how long I work at this job and when I start taking it.  The hard part to account for is that it doesn't receive any COLA/inflation adjustments until I start receiving it, which for the best case would be, uh, 18 years after 2030.  Even assuming 3% inflation for those 18 years, it would still theoretically provide 25% of my fat-ish FIRE expenses, pre-tax.  I haven't accounted for taxes yet in my plan. 

I also don't count on SS at all.  Unrealistic, I know, but that's my hedge regarding the pension and inflation. 

brandon1827

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #520 on: January 03, 2020, 07:54:55 AM »
Very similar situation for me regarding the pension; although I would be eligible to take it without penalty in 2037. Due to that defined benefit plus my 401K, I don't factor SS in either. If it ends up being there for me when I'm eligible then great...but I'm not counting on the program remaining solvent long-term. I'm a little different on the mortgage as I plan to pay that thing off by my 2030 Fire date. I don't want to carry any debt whatsoever into Fire, and I contribute the max match amount to my 401K, so while I might be able to invest on my own in addition to the 401K, pension, & SS...I'd rather just not have a mortgage payment or other debt when I'm retired.

haypug16

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #521 on: January 31, 2020, 06:57:51 AM »
Jan 2020 update
X= Yearly Expenses
2017 - Stache at 1.17x  - Ending Balance $29,448.59
2018 - Stache at 1.41x  - Ending Balance $35,167.30
2019 - Stache at 2.628x - Ending Balance $65,693.78
2020 - Stache Goal 4x - January Balance $67,450.05 = 2.7x

Only 10 years and 11 months more of work for me (or less) ;P

msbutterbean

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #522 on: February 25, 2020, 01:22:13 PM »
Joining! I am a late bloomer as far as finances go. When I first started reading this forum the ink on my divorce papers was fresh, and I had never followed a budget. That was mid 2017. I tend to be overly optimistic but finances were starting to keep me up at night, and the prospect of working forever was bringing me down. Setting up my plan with "early" retirement in mind was a revelation. (I'll be 60 in 2030, which is way earlier than it would have been if I hadn't corrected course.)

Net worth right now is about $250K. I estimate I'll have $750K in investments at the end of 2029 and about $200K in home equity if I stay in my current VHCOL until then. Unfortunately, I'm tied to the area as a result of the divorce, and am planning to keep the spendy house until the last of my kids is finished with college (May 2029).

I've set 2030 as my target date, less as a result of the dollar values and more because I know I need an end goal in mind for the desk job. There seem to be so many variables that could swing the plan one way or another -- kids' college expenses, keeping my current job, future of the new relationship, social security, healthcare, where the kids will end up, where I'll end up -- so for now I'm letting the tail wag the dog a little.

But happy to see that this thread has been in the works for several years now, as my 10-year horizon seems like an eternity!
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 12:48:19 PM by msbutterbean »

Eco_eco

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #523 on: February 26, 2020, 12:24:09 AM »
2030 for us is looking to be the year of fatFIRE. Assuming we make it and don't leanFIRE in the meantime I'll be 54 and looking to downshift, from standard paid employment to part time contracting or just managing a small business. We are likely to live in the southern hemisphere for six - nine months and the northern hemisphere for rest of the year.

Updating after a couple of years of doing things other than hanging around on the MMM forums.

I recently sat down and rebuilt our financial forecast spreadsheets. We’ve been chugging along with our FatFIRE plans. We are on track to retire in 2030 in our early 50’s, when the kids are about 18 and I anticipate my job has gone stale. My DW is considering partial retirement in a year or two. She went back to work to teach the kids while they have been at elementary school (she is their teacher). They both only have a couple of years left before high school.

Something interesting (at least for me) has how badly we have arranged our retirement income sources. A large part of our net worth is tied up in the house we currently live in - which I’m not sure the kids would ever want us to sell, and we also have a large chunk in funds which can’t be accessed before age 65 (around 500k). We also have a largely property based approach to FI and our rental portfolio will kick into high gear later in life when the debt is all finally discharged. This means our 50s will be relatively tight on income, but we will have large amounts of income (over 200% of our fatfire income requirements) coming on stream for our golden years.


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Eco_eco

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #524 on: February 26, 2020, 01:50:17 AM »
Sorry for the double post but I forgot to put in our money targets.

Right now we are aiming for the following income levels (all inflation adjusted back to 2020 dollars):

Retirement lifestyles achieved:
A) Millennial-Revolution Fire (travel the world lifestyle, no ppr):
Income required of about $40,000, income available from investments about $44,000 (if we sold up to travel)

B) The Frugalwoods option (move to LCoL location, live super frugally, continue to work remotely):
Income required of $30,000 (with fully paid PPR), income available of about $31,000 from investments (if we relocated)

Retirement Lifestyles we are aiming towards:
The Mr 1500 days approach (retire without major lifestyle changes):
Income required of $80,000, income currently available from assets $9,000, target date of 2030 for full retirement

The provide for the kids approach (retire comfortably, have enough assets that the kids should never have to work):
Income required of $150,000 plus

Our investments are structured to provide income (if we were to draw it without re-investing) of:
2020: about $10,000 pa
2023: about $31,000 pa
2030: about $80,000 pa
2040: about $140,000 pa

Settings:
All based on 6% net of tax investment return for index funds, SWR of 3.5%, inflation of 2%. We currently spend about 50% of our income.

Investment vehicle of choice:
Mostly we invest in residential rental properties, a lot of our savings goes into building property capital (as opposed to managed funds which we only hold as a hedge against property market risk and for diversification). This is why our income grows so dramatically from 2040 onwards as mortgage payments cease and the rental income streams don’t have to service debt.




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brandon1827

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #525 on: February 26, 2020, 08:23:43 AM »
Hello and welcome Ms Butterbean! Great to have you with us and glad to see you've got things moving the right direction now. It's amazing what a little time and attention can do to course correct an off the rails fire plan. I'm fairly certain that you and I aren't the only "late bloomers" in terms of a plan to retire early also, so stick to your plan and don't be afraid to make changes as circumstances dictate.

On that note, I've been planning my fire strategy around the assumption that besides land and a little cash inheritance, my wife wouldn't have any retirement income to contribute. My plan has been focused around maxing my 501K, my pension, and the previously stated land/cash assets we have. My wife was a school teacher for 13 years and had some significant health issues that forced her hand into not accepting another contract at the end of last year. That time was a bit of a strain going back down to 1 income, but it allowed her time to get the surgeries she needed and now she's completely healthy again. She was offered a job with our city Parks and Rec making more in her starting salary than she ever made in 13 years as an educator. She was also provided a range; so we now know what her salary will be when she "maxes out" in her current position; which is nice. She also gets performance bonuses, amazing insurance, and has also been enrolled in the city pension plan. So now in addition to my pension, 401K, and the land/cash assets, we will now have an additional pension to add to the formula! I'm over the moon about it and am so excited to re-run the numbers when we have more concrete data to use.

Steeze

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #526 on: March 17, 2020, 01:13:21 PM »
So... being that we are all about 10 years out and everything will be back to normal by then .... this just means we potentially get to retire sooner right?

haypug16

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #527 on: March 24, 2020, 08:41:24 AM »
So... being that we are all about 10 years out and everything will be back to normal by then .... this just means we potentially get to retire sooner right?

Yup :) That's my thinking.

rebel_quietude

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #528 on: March 27, 2020, 11:10:54 AM »
Anyone want to play, "in March of 2020, I lost ___?"

I'm hoping to look back on this and think to myself, "yup. That was the best opportunity I ever had to buy on sale."

Between 19 Feb and 23 March, I "lost" about $251k. It's hard to comprehend . . . I re-balanced, though, so hopefully it will help in the long run!

DadJokes

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #529 on: March 27, 2020, 12:02:19 PM »
I'll update my spreadsheet on April 1 and play along. Back of the envelope math suggests that the current balance is going to be lower than total contributions. If I wasn't focused on the long term, that would be pretty jarring.

However, since I have a decade or so to go, this is a pretty great opportunity, as long as I can continue to contribute.

brandon1827

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #530 on: March 30, 2020, 08:06:06 AM »
I've been resisting the urge to even check my 401K balance right now for fear of assured depression. I keep telling myself "I'm only 44...don't look at it...it'll come back...look for buying opportunities" but I'm really terrified to actually check the balance.

Steeze

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #531 on: March 30, 2020, 04:38:55 PM »
As of today my NW is down 25k, last week I was down 55k ... next week - TBD. Just hoping things hold up tomorrow so we can close this month's spreadsheet entry with something that isn't as shocking as the mid-month numbers. Lets all agree to just hold this level +/- 2% for the next year or three.

DadJokes

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #532 on: April 01, 2020, 08:09:07 AM »
I lost $7,200 in February & another $10,000 in March. My current investments are about $3,200 lower than what I've contributed.

dreadmoose

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #533 on: April 01, 2020, 10:08:51 AM »
From End of January to April 1st I am down $69,175.

Though I have sold nothing and actually added over $25,000 in investments during that time (included in the loss calculation).

Stock sales and all that.

Mgmny

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #534 on: April 01, 2020, 10:51:59 AM »
From my peak (2/19) to my bottom (3/23) I lost $83,000 which includes additions of about $8k during that time - so very close to $100k. Insane!

My company had big layoffs on Friday and everyone else remaining had to take a paycut (I had to take 5%). I don't think this will impact our date too much - at least as of what i know today - i still use 6.5% ROI in all my calculations. As long as my wife and I can keep our jobs, we'll keep maxing 401k, HSA, IRAs...

Steeze

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #535 on: April 01, 2020, 06:11:23 PM »
From my peak (2/19) to my bottom (3/23) I lost $83,000 which includes additions of about $8k during that time - so very close to $100k. Insane!

My company had big layoffs on Friday and everyone else remaining had to take a paycut (I had to take 5%). I don't think this will impact our date too much - at least as of what i know today - i still use 6.5% ROI in all my calculations. As long as my wife and I can keep our jobs, we'll keep maxing 401k, HSA, IRAs...
this
Damn - good to have the job still though, sorry about the pay cut.

My wages this year are in limbo for sure. I am due for a yearly raise this month which has been 10-20% a year for the last few years. On top of that my yearly profit sharing bonus is usually 15-20% of my wages for the year. The company also recently drastically increased its overhead betting on a large expansion over the next couple years, and already splurged on a year end company wide trip to the tropics to celebrate a major anniversary for the company. All signs pointing to no raise and crappy bonus. At least we have our health.

Road2Freedom

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #536 on: April 03, 2020, 06:21:46 AM »
Hope everyone is well despite everything going on in the world.  It's certainly been a rocky ride since Feb 19-20 (high point for us based on Personal Capital).  My job (100% commission recruiting) has slowed down considerably but fortunate to have survived the first round of cuts.  My wife has also kept her job but has taken a 10% pay cut until further notice.

Some of the numbers:
Down $146,980 since Jan 1.  Investments (100% equities) are down $184,702 since Feb 19 (lowest point was down $242,460 on 3/23).  Having about 12 months in cash has made the situation a bit easier to deal with since I know we can handle one (or both) of us losing our jobs.

rebel_quietude

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #537 on: April 03, 2020, 01:17:19 PM »
@Road2Freedom not going to lie, it's a relief to see someone's numbers look like mine. The "Race from 500k to 1 Mil" thread makes me think some folks have a waaay more conservative asset allocation than I; nice to remind myself that with a ten year time horizon, I can afford to take risk!

Sending positive vibes to everyone facing pay reduction or possible job loss. Stay well, folks.


dreadmoose

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #538 on: April 03, 2020, 01:40:17 PM »
@Road2Freedom not going to lie, it's a relief to see someone's numbers look like mine. The "Race from 500k to 1 Mil" thread makes me think some folks have a waaay more conservative asset allocation than I; nice to remind myself that with a ten year time horizon, I can afford to take risk!

Sending positive vibes to everyone facing pay reduction or possible job loss. Stay well, folks.

I've been shocked reading through that and the races above. Seems a lot of people are way more conservative than the back testing allows.

Alittle bit of it is has to be the survivor bias, we're more likely to hear from people now that they had stockpiles of cash as it isn't as "shamed" as it would have been during the bull run. Those that lost a ton may not be checking or updating when others want to celebrate their shrewd decision making.

I try and remember that I have another decade and that losing more now is a symptom of having more in the first place (aggressive portfolios). Only losing 50K instead of 200K when you've sidelined a ton of your growth still puts you behind a proper allocation in the long run, or even already if you've been doing it for years.

Thanks for attending my Ted talk on things we already know.

Road2Freedom

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #539 on: April 06, 2020, 09:00:59 AM »
@Road2Freedom not going to lie, it's a relief to see someone's numbers look like mine. The "Race from 500k to 1 Mil" thread makes me think some folks have a waaay more conservative asset allocation than I; nice to remind myself that with a ten year time horizon, I can afford to take risk!

Sending positive vibes to everyone facing pay reduction or possible job loss. Stay well, folks.

Agree regarding the risk piece.  I've always been way more conservative with cash but a lot of it has to do with my job.  Nothing like the feeling of making money to only have it taken back from you.

I haven't really followed the "Race from 500k to 1 Mil" but will have to take a peek again.

aceyou

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #540 on: April 06, 2020, 06:38:20 PM »
Anyone want to play, "in March of 2020, I lost ___?"

I'm hoping to look back on this and think to myself, "yup. That was the best opportunity I ever had to buy on sale."

Between 19 Feb and 23 March, I "lost" about $251k. It's hard to comprehend . . . I re-balanced, though, so hopefully it will help in the long run!

Sure, I lost 138k last month. 

I responded by filling up my and DW's roths for the year. 

haypug16

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #541 on: April 10, 2020, 11:27:52 AM »
I was down $3k in Feb and then anouther $10k in March. I increased my 401k contributions and Mr Pug and I are looking to throw $10k into the market next week to take advantage of some "sales"

mizzourah2006

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #542 on: April 10, 2020, 11:36:15 AM »
I update my NW monthly. Our peak update was end of January and at the end of March we were down $105k from January.

Guava

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #543 on: April 15, 2020, 09:15:24 AM »
I haven't been around in awhile - life with work and kids means little free time. But here I am, while stocks are on sale, as a single income household that had to take a paycut with no extra cash to buy! Haha, oh well. Just popping in to say hi to everyone. I haven't run my numbers in a long time and now doesn't seem like the opportune time do so mentally.

We have another little peanut on the way hopefully at the end of July if s/he listens to plans. My last one didn't listen though (and still doesn't) so who knows. Being high risk means we have hardly left the house in almost 5 weeks now! And we are being way more mustachian than ever before, eating freezer food and eating down the pantry. This whole thing has showed how far away from our frugal pre-kid life we have strayed and didn't even realize it. Aside from my medical bills, we are only spending a few hundred dollars a month. It is pretty mind-blowing!

Hope everyone is well!

401Killer

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #544 on: May 27, 2020, 09:57:23 AM »
I'll play! 41y/o SINK.

NW = $495k
Invested = $306k ($290 401k - $15k Roth)
House Value = ~$195k
Cash = $25K
Debt = $44k House

Currently maxing 401k and Roth IRA + %8 Company $1/$1 match. ~$32,500 yr. I'm pretty sure I really need to start pushing the after tax savings for the 10 year gap hardcore. Actually, as I type this, I'm going to double my Roth contributions...

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #545 on: June 05, 2020, 11:18:06 AM »
... We have another little peanut on the way hopefully at the end of July if s/he listens to plans. ...

Congratulations!

@Road2Freedom not going to lie, it's a relief to see someone's numbers look like mine. The "Race from 500k to 1 Mil" thread makes me think some folks have a waaay more conservative asset allocation than I; nice to remind myself that with a ten year time horizon, I can afford to take risk!

Sending positive vibes to everyone facing pay reduction or possible job loss. Stay well, folks.

I've been shocked reading through that and the races above. Seems a lot of people are way more conservative than the back testing allows.

Alittle bit of it is has to be the survivor bias, we're more likely to hear from people now that they had stockpiles of cash as it isn't as "shamed" as it would have been during the bull run. Those that lost a ton may not be checking or updating when others want to celebrate their shrewd decision making.

I try and remember that I have another decade and that losing more now is a symptom of having more in the first place (aggressive portfolios). Only losing 50K instead of 200K when you've sidelined a ton of your growth still puts you behind a proper allocation in the long run, or even already if you've been doing it for years.

Thanks for attending my Ted talk on things we already know.

I have a large emergency fund and very stable job.  I used to run 80/20, then switched to 100/0 at the beginning of this year.  I figured if things were bad enough that 100% over the next 10 years didn't work, then neither would 80/20.  I just... didn't check my accounts last month and now they are actually higher than they were pre-COVID.  The stock market is weird, man. 

I'll play! 41y/o SINK.

NW = $495k
Invested = $306k ($290 401k - $15k Roth)
House Value = ~$195k
Cash = $25K
Debt = $44k House

Currently maxing 401k and Roth IRA + %8 Company $1/$1 match. ~$32,500 yr. I'm pretty sure I really need to start pushing the after tax savings for the 10 year gap hardcore. Actually, as I type this, I'm going to double my Roth contributions...

Hello and welcome!  That 8% match is pretty sweet. 

Looks like you are on a good start and have all your bases covered- good luck!

I've been keeping track of my networth every month for the past 2 years or so.  As I was updating it last night, on a whim I threw (networth/yearly expenses) vs (months) into an excel graph and used the equation solver to get an exponential equation for it .  I plugged in 25 (for 25x yearly expenses) into the equation and  the result (# of months required) matched my homebrew FIRE calculator to within 6 months.  (technically due to a pension I will FIRE before I hit 25x, but I ran my homebrew out to 25x just to see).  So to me this is another way of proving that I've matched my expected savings/growth rate for the past two years :)


dodojojo

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #546 on: June 05, 2020, 11:36:07 AM »
Won't have a job at the end of the month.  If I'm not earning soon after and investing...may be booted out of 2030.

In any case, 2030 was aspirational, conservatively, 2032-33 was more likely.

Coast FI is 2036.

twistedfirestarter

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #547 on: June 05, 2020, 03:57:29 PM »
Won't have a job at the end of the month.  If I'm not earning soon after and investing...may be booted out of 2030.

In any case, 2030 was aspirational, conservatively, 2032-33 was more likely.

Coast FI is 2036.
Sorry to hear your news. Hope you find something soon

rebel_quietude

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #548 on: June 06, 2020, 07:24:54 AM »
Won't have a job at the end of the month.  If I'm not earning soon after and investing...may be booted out of 2030.

In any case, 2030 was aspirational, conservatively, 2032-33 was more likely.

Coast FI is 2036.

@dodojojo, the 2030 Fire cohort will release you at 2359 on 31 December, 2030, and not before. Once you're in, we don't let you go...

In all seriousness, good luck. I'm casting to the universe thoughts of your finding something better than what you're leaving, with awesome co-workers, reasonable hours and a nice benefits.

dodojojo

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #549 on: June 06, 2020, 09:04:01 AM »

Thank you.  Two week countdown...need to get my butt in gear, but kind of in limbo right now.