Author Topic: 2030 FIRE Cohort  (Read 200259 times)

Mgmny

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #450 on: March 05, 2019, 08:55:28 AM »
Probably around 1.5 million, but regardless, my wife and I plan to go till 48. 

We'll probably ht 1.5 million around age 44-45, but if we go to 48 we each get lucrative pensions...might as well go for it unless our jobs start really sucking.  June 2031 is actually my FIRE date, but FI will likely be around 2027.

Nice! At 35 now, you are probably pretty close to/already at your coast number for FI at 48. Looks like 300k at 7% for the next 13 years is $743k. If the rest of your assets stayed the same you'd have a NW of $1.1. That means in the next 13 years you'd just (ok it is a little more than i thought) need to build $400,000 equity in your home, life insurance, and pension. Perhaps that's possible - i don 't know what your home looks like, and I don't have a great grasp on how life insurance or pensions gain equity, but either way, you are sitting great!!!

Even if your life insurance, home, and pension don't gain a penny more more in equity over the next 13 years, it looks like you are basically one person maxing their 401k for the next 13 years to hit your NW goal of 1.5 at 7%!! That's awesome!

Congrats!!!


terrifictim

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #451 on: March 05, 2019, 09:26:33 AM »
Hi All,

Joining this cohort as motivation. My case study (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/case-studies/case-study-29-and-a-recent-mmm-enthusiast-can-i-be-fire-by-40/) has more details so I'll just summarize below:
  • I'm 30, DW is 28, No kids currently but planning on 1-2in next couple of years
  • I'm an engineer, she's a teacher
  • Assets are primary residence, rental property, and investments
  • Liabilities are two mortgages + car loan

I like the X * Expenses Ratio approach. We are currently in the Don't Payoff Mortgage Club - but our expenses for FIRE will be without mortgage. Also made a reasonable assumption about cost of kids - we'll see how that turns out :)

X= Est. FIRE Stache (Comes from Personal Capital Projections)
Jan 1 2018: 3x
Jan 1 2019: 4x
Jan 1 2020: 5.7x
Jan 1 2021: 7.5x
Jan 1 2022: 10x
Jan 1 2023: 11.6x
Jan 1 2024: 13.3x
Jan 1 2025: 15x
Jan 1 2026: 16.6x
Jan 1 2027: 18.3x
Jan 1 2028: 20x
Jan 1 2029: 22x
Jan 1 2030: 23.7x
Jan 1 2031: 25.5x ( I will be 43, DW 41)


mizzourah2006

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #452 on: March 05, 2019, 12:56:34 PM »
Probably around 1.5 million, but regardless, my wife and I plan to go till 48. 

We'll probably ht 1.5 million around age 44-45, but if we go to 48 we each get lucrative pensions...might as well go for it unless our jobs start really sucking.  June 2031 is actually my FIRE date, but FI will likely be around 2027.

I'm pretty much perfectly aligned with you. Wife and I will likely go until I'm atleast 48, possibly 50 because we'll be tied down with kids in HS. I'm 35 (wife is 33), we are also shooting for 1.5 for our FI #. According to Madfientists's laboratory with a 4% CAGR we should hit that by 2025 (42 & 40), but I'll believe it when I see it.

Obviously a lot could change, but I currently really like my job, work remotely, so I get to see the kids off to daycare each day and I'm home when they get home, etc.

Cool to see another person on basically the exact same path though.

aceyou

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #453 on: March 05, 2019, 08:08:40 PM »
Probably around 1.5 million, but regardless, my wife and I plan to go till 48. 

We'll probably ht 1.5 million around age 44-45, but if we go to 48 we each get lucrative pensions...might as well go for it unless our jobs start really sucking.  June 2031 is actually my FIRE date, but FI will likely be around 2027.

Nice! At 35 now, you are probably pretty close to/already at your coast number for FI at 48. Looks like 300k at 7% for the next 13 years is $743k. If the rest of your assets stayed the same you'd have a NW of $1.1. That means in the next 13 years you'd just (ok it is a little more than i thought) need to build $400,000 equity in your home, life insurance, and pension. Perhaps that's possible - i don 't know what your home looks like, and I don't have a great grasp on how life insurance or pensions gain equity, but either way, you are sitting great!!!

Even if your life insurance, home, and pension don't gain a penny more more in equity over the next 13 years, it looks like you are basically one person maxing their 401k for the next 13 years to hit your NW goal of 1.5 at 7%!! That's awesome!

Congrats!!!

Pretty much.  However, both my wife and I have different reasons to still invest aggressively in the meantime. 

For my wife, she's far more cautious.  The 4% rule wouldn't make her sleep well enough, so she'd just be happier with a bigger stach.

For me, I look at how fast the world is changing.  I mean, I'm 35.  In fifty years it'll be 2019+50 = 2069 and statistically my wife and I are quite likely to still be alive.  But the world is going to look COMPLETELY DIFFERENT.  I'm completely confident the 4% rule will get us though life as we know it, but an extra few million decades from now might buy some truly mind-blowing stuff:)   Stuff that could very well change your entire standard of living, and transform both the quality AND quantity of life.  Or maybe not, who the hell knows.  But if that stuff does exist, I don't know how much it will cost, and I figure more money is better than less.  I'm not into fancy cars or houses, but if there's a way I can pay to drastically improve my health in ways we can't even imagine, then yeah, I'm going to want it. 

So most likely, for our own different reasons, we'll probably just keep at it with a 50-60% savings rate.  We're already really happy living off less, so why not just keep at it. 

aceyou

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #454 on: March 05, 2019, 08:11:00 PM »
Probably around 1.5 million, but regardless, my wife and I plan to go till 48. 

We'll probably ht 1.5 million around age 44-45, but if we go to 48 we each get lucrative pensions...might as well go for it unless our jobs start really sucking.  June 2031 is actually my FIRE date, but FI will likely be around 2027.

I'm pretty much perfectly aligned with you. Wife and I will likely go until I'm atleast 48, possibly 50 because we'll be tied down with kids in HS. I'm 35 (wife is 33), we are also shooting for 1.5 for our FI #. According to Madfientists's laboratory with a 4% CAGR we should hit that by 2025 (42 & 40), but I'll believe it when I see it.

Obviously a lot could change, but I currently really like my job, work remotely, so I get to see the kids off to daycare each day and I'm home when they get home, etc.

Cool to see another person on basically the exact same path though.


Yeah, that resonates.  Same thing with me being with the kids.  As a teacher, our schedules align PERFECTLY.  For most of the next 15 years, If I'm working, they are in school, and when they're out of school, so is dad:)  Love it. 

Steeze

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #455 on: March 13, 2019, 05:28:36 PM »
Just realized I now have more invested than I spent on college. Now the most expensive thing I ever bought is my portfolio. Feels good. At least until the new house closes. Will be a while until I beat that one. Small victories.

BeautifulDay

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #456 on: March 23, 2019, 08:17:13 PM »
I forgot to post my January numbers. Oops.
But, I was slightly ahead of my estimated number even with the down market. Woohoo.
I really want to move my retirement number to 2030, or better still, earlier than that.

As of January 1st  — estimates in black and actual numbers in blue
2017 - 1.26x
2018 - 2.17x
2019 - 2.86x -2.94x
2020 - 3.77x
2021 - 4.85x
2022 - 6.01x
2023 - 7.25x
2024 - 8.57x
2025 - 10.00x
2026 - 11.52x
2027 - 13.18x
2028 - 14.95x
2029 - 16.84x
2030 - 18.87x
2031 - 21.05x
2032 - 23.38x
2033 - 25.87x
« Last Edit: March 23, 2019, 08:19:52 PM by BeautifulDay »

BruceWayne

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #457 on: March 27, 2019, 12:43:19 PM »
2030 is my current best guess.  I'm in.

letsdoit

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #458 on: April 01, 2019, 08:07:05 AM »
currently at appx 11x spending , not including equity

haypug16

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #459 on: April 01, 2019, 12:11:56 PM »
Q1 2019 update
X= Yearly Expenses
2017 - Stache at 1.17x  - Ending Balance $29,448.59
2018 - Stache at 1.41x  - Ending Balance $35,167.30
2019 - Stache goal 2.5x  - Current balance $44,014.27 (1.76x expenses)

I got about $18K left to save this year.

2,637 working days left

Mgmny

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #460 on: April 02, 2019, 10:58:36 AM »
Q1 2019 update
X= Yearly Expenses
2017 - Stache at 1.17x  - Ending Balance $29,448.59
2018 - Stache at 1.41x  - Ending Balance $35,167.30
2019 - Stache goal 2.5x  - Current balance $44,014.27 (1.76x expenses)

I got about $18K left to save this year.

2,637 working days left

Now THAT'S some frugality for living in Boston!!

haypug16

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #461 on: April 02, 2019, 12:08:53 PM »
Now THAT'S some frugality for living in Boston!!

Thanks, I'm very fortunate that Mr Pug bought a house right after the crash so our mortgage is extremely low. If we were paying rent or "typical" mortgage amounts for the area I would have to add about $10K to my annual expense number.

x02947

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #462 on: May 30, 2019, 10:25:17 AM »
Well, I feel kind of silly.  I’ve been using the basic annual interest formula (present value*1.06) in my spreadsheet as opposed to the proper PERT formula.  It doesn’t really make a difference until my stash is several years post FIRE, it’s just mostly an embarrassment to me. 

In other news, I’ve taken 3 weeks off work out of the past 4… it’s been amazing.  Got some good time in with the little ones, got the house cleaned up, and tackled a few things on the laundry list of home maintenance tasks that I never seem to have time for.  Back to the grindstone now, though. 

Been doing a lot of thinking lately and sometime in the next year or so I will probably try to drop part time for a couple years while the kids are still young.  It will obviously affect FIRE date, but I would be willing to make that trade off (I actually enjoy my job).  Health insurance premiums would rise on a sliding scale, so I can’t quite go as low as I initially thought, but with a little bit more prudence I could do 25 hrs/week and still save ~10%.  Even if I only did, say, 32 hrs/week that would be nice.  They would still accrue as years to my pension as a ratio.  Literally no one in this organization does part time, however, so it would be a bit of a battle.   

« Last Edit: May 30, 2019, 11:35:04 AM by x02947 »

haypug16

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #463 on: June 02, 2019, 02:47:32 PM »
x02947, I have been thinking about going part-time in the next 5 years or so. Maybe to 4 days a week. If I can continue to keep expenses at the same level and get a few good raises then I'm hoping it doesn't change my FIRE date.

FireHiker

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #464 on: June 28, 2019, 11:33:35 AM »
Checking in here for the first time in awhile. It looks like I may be jumping to the 2025 Cohort! We have made the decision to downsize our giant house to a more modest townhome. We're in escrow on the purchase and preparing to list our current house. Our updated calculations show that it means we could retire in-place by the end of 2025, shaving 5 years off of our current retire and downsize plan. A handful of things will have to fall our way, but it looks reasonably likely at this point. I won't make the jump to the 2025 group until we've closed on both houses, but I'm excited!!!

A Fella from Stella

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #465 on: June 28, 2019, 12:46:50 PM »
In 2030 I'll be 48 and will exercise early retirement from the government. Can't draw my pension until I'm 60, but plan to teach still. Plus, my kids will be 18 and over, and we'll have $0 debt.

Road2Freedom

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #466 on: June 29, 2019, 10:50:58 AM »
Setting this as our goal, but may be a stretch as Personal Capital says we have a 52% chance of our portfolio supporting our goals.  Also likely in for a rough patch at end of year due to wife's position being moved overseas.  She'll receive a severance and there's still a chance she may be kept on.  Until then, we'll keep on keepin' on.

Age: 42 (me) & 45 (DW)

Net worth: $482,632 (includes $30,342 that is in a 529 and other investments for our son who is 16)
Rollover IRAs: $120,969 (me) and $44,329 (DW)
Mutual Funds: $40,343
Roth IRA: $42,826 (me)
401Ks: $31,506 (me) and $118,387 (DW)
Cash: $54,224 (checking/savings - fluctuates quite a bit as one can expect)
529 & other college funds for our son who is 16:  $30,342

We have no debt and currently rent (long story short is we plan on moving after our son finishes HS in 2019).

NW - 521,381.

Figure I would do a quick update.  Won't break out the numbers, but can say that I maxed out my Roth IRA earlier this week and also bumped up our 401Ks to 20% (DW) and 25% (me) since finding the FI community back in May.

DW has also been extended to March and there's a possibility she may be kept on as the move overseas hasn't gone well.   Negative is they were acquired by a new company and health insurance is not as good and also more expensive.  May have to adjust 401K contributions in order to put money into a HSA.  Must say we were fortunate to have incredible insurance for so many years.

NW - $558,000.  Market's hot start to the year has really helped out.  Personal Capital shows an increase of slightly over $19,000 since Jan 1. 

Still figuring out how much of an impact having high deductible health insurance will have this year.
First, the bad...
So getting a big taste of having a HDHP and crazy to see what they bill you.  Ended up breaking a finger on my left hand (surgery) and fracturing my right wrist a couple weeks ago.  Talk about fun times.  At least the right hand is in a brace and should heal on its own.  Looks like I've hit my $4K deductible (plan started Jul 1) and will likely hit the individual out of pocket ($6850) soon.  Paid the hospital almost $3200 and just found out today that they overcharged me by almost $900 so get to chase that refund down next week.

And the good:
Wife ended up losing her job in May, got a decent severance (7 months), and started a new job earlier this month.  She has to commute now, so she's getting used to that, but she is actually making more money.  I set her 401K to 30% (max they allow) to try and stuff as much away as possible.  Plan is to also move closer to where we work after our son graduates next year.  Homes and taxes are definitely higher, but hope that will offset the time and money gained by having a shorter commute.

I'm in a 100% commission (recoverable draw) role and hit a pretty nice run this spring/summer that will end up being my best year to date.  That run, and the money that's finally starting to come in, will put me close to maxing my 401K at the end of the month.  Have never done that before and will try to add money to maximize paying for the medical bills.  I wish they would allow you to pick an amount so you could hit the number on the nose, but they only allow full percentages.

Finding the FIRE community last year has been great.  Helped me focus even more on saving for retirement and identifying cost saving opportunities.  Such a wealth of information on there.

Happy New Year to everyone on here!

Haven't updated this in a while and figured I'll at least try to do it annually.  I don't have an accurate snapshot on Personal Capital since I deleted an old 401K in mid-Jan.  Had my best year, from an income perspective, but also had to pay for some medical expenses and other dumb costly items.  Rough end of the year with the market resulted in investment accounts dropping $57,844 in the last 90 days.

Ended up switching investment accounts to 100% equities since we have a large cash balance.  Haven't decided if we're buying a home this year or will continue renting.  Definitely pro's/con's with our son graduating HS this spring.  He's going to a local college and will live at home for at least the first year.  I explained to him what we have put aside for college, so he understands living at home the first year will help stretch the money.  He'll also receive the Hope or Zell Miller scholarship in GA so that will help cover most of the tuition.

Net worth: $581,483 (includes $32,479 that is in a 529 and other investments for our son)
Rollover IRAs: $122,555 (me) and $44,930 (DW)
Taxable account (Fidelity S&P index): $43,240
Roth IRA: $47,409 (me)
401Ks: $57,684 (me), $136,501 (DW - old 401K - haven't done anything with it), and $5,242 (DW new 401K - started new job in mid-Aug)
Cash: $87,199 checking/savings - fluctuates quite a bit as one can expect)
HSA:  $3,921 (me) and $1,320 (DW)

We have no debt and currently rent.

Official 2-year MMM post - $718,043.  Doesn't seem like it's been that long and glad I decided to search "Early retirement" one weekend.  I've learned a lot on here and via other podcasts / blogs I read.

Guava

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #467 on: July 01, 2019, 07:40:07 AM »
Hey everyone! It has been a long time since I have been around - had my little dude (early of course) and time has just flown by! We have made some big changes that will definitely delay our FIRE but are great positives for our family right now. My DH quit his job to become a full time SAHD! It's the best thing ever and of course our saving habits enabled us to do this!

We spent a ton of money last year on our out building and are still spending some on it this year too as we get the interior insulated and finished. We ended up buying a newer vehicle since the carseat never would fit in my car. Here is a quick mid 2019 update!

Cash: $37k
Retirement: $247k
Home equity: $76k
Other real estate equity: $46k

With a small car and equity loan our net worth is sitting around $391k.

I haven't updated this in awhile so with a target stash of $1,350,000 (a healthy buffer built in for kids and whatnot) and investments and cash only: I am at 5.5x!

2017 - Stache at 1x
2018 - Stache at 2x
2019 - Stache at 3x
2020 - Stache at 4.5x

2021 - Stache at 6x
2022 - Stache at 8x
2023 - Stache at 10x
2024 - Stache at 12x
2025 - Stache at 14x
2026 - Stache at 16x
2027 - Stache at 18x
2028 - Stache at 20x
2029 - Stache at 22x
2030 - Stache at 25x

I am pretty excited to still feel ahead of the game even though so much has changed. Although I am sure the growth is slowing as we add more mouths to feed and have less income - I wouldn't change a thing :)

Mgmny

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #468 on: July 02, 2019, 09:26:20 AM »
I'm stealing Haypug's post:

Year End Update

X= Yearly Expenses
2017 - Stache at 1x   $50,000 - Ending Balance $217,000
2018 - Stache at 2x   $100,000 - Ending Balance $314,000 = 6.3x expenses
2019 - Stache at 2.5x   $150,000
2020 - Stache at 4x   $200,000
2021 - Stache at 6x  $300,000
   
2022 - Stache at 8x   $400,000
2023 - Stache at 10x   $500,000
2024 - Stache at 12x   $600,000
2025 - Stache at 14x   $700,000
2026 - Stache at 16x   $800,000
2027 - Stache at 18x   $900,000
2028 - Stache at 20x   $1,000,000
2029 - Stache at 22x   $1,100,000
2030 - Retire by end of year with 25x yearly expense rate $1,250,000

We gave birth to our son in November 2018, and we'll see if my wife keeps working, and if so for how long. We are through 2021 in terms of numbers which puts us in a good position for 2030 (3 years ahead), but if she quits working, those multipliers will catch up fast!

My stache includes all net worth (equities, cash, and home equity) because my FIRE number assumes a mortgage payment, so my home equity could be cashed out for this purpose.

Just sold our house and got a bit more than we thought we would for it, so updating my numbers as a "Mid Year" mark because we crossed off another year (trending past 2022).

Rough numbers:
Retirement / Investment: $200,000
Real Estate: $170,000k
Cash/Savings/Emergency: $35,000

Mid-Year End Update

X= Yearly Expenses
2017 - Stache at 1x   $50,000 - Ending Balance $217,000
2018 - Stache at 2x   $100,000 - Ending Balance $314,000 = 6.3x expenses
2019 - Stache at 2.5x   $150,000
2020 - Stache at 4x   $200,000
2021 - Stache at 6x  $300,000
2022 - Stache at 8x   $400,000

2023 - Stache at 10x   $500,000
2024 - Stache at 12x   $600,000
2025 - Stache at 14x   $700,000
2026 - Stache at 16x   $800,000
2027 - Stache at 18x   $900,000
2028 - Stache at 20x   $1,000,000
2029 - Stache at 22x   $1,100,000
2030 - Retire by end of year with 25x yearly expense rate $1,250,000

coffeefueled

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #469 on: July 02, 2019, 10:11:05 AM »
I think we're in for 2028-2030. We're aiming for 1.2m. I think I'd be comfortable with a thinner FIRE budget, but we would need to move from our HCOL area when we retire to go mortgage free. We're getting a late start on the plan (36 & 40), just got married, and want to start a family in the next year so there's a lot of unknowns to how our saving will change over the next 10 years.

We're at little over 8X right now. We're planning to save my entire income between now and having kids to test out whether we can afford for me to be a SAHM.
My current calculation is that putting our savings on coast by only maxing out his 401k/IRA we should still be able to hit the 2030 goal. I'm hoping we'll be able to save a lot more than that even on one income, but he's brand new to the FIRE idea and still pretty excited that 10 years is possible.

Did anyone else change to one income? Did it change your ER plans a lot?




Guava

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #470 on: July 02, 2019, 10:23:15 AM »
@coffeefueled we changed to one income at the start of 2019. It is definitely slowing down FIRE because we lost a chunk of income but when we add more kids to the mix it will be cheaper than daycare.

Mgmny

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #471 on: July 02, 2019, 11:02:29 AM »
We're likely dropping to 1 income around this time or maybe a little later in 2020... My wife wants to be a SAHM, and it will just make more sense for her to pursue that once we have 2 little ones.

A Fella from Stella

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #472 on: July 02, 2019, 12:08:38 PM »
I think we're in for 2028-2030. We're aiming for 1.2m. I think I'd be comfortable with a thinner FIRE budget, but we would need to move from our HCOL area when we retire to go mortgage free. We're getting a late start on the plan (36 & 40), just got married, and want to start a family in the next year so there's a lot of unknowns to how our saving will change over the next 10 years.

We're at little over 8X right now. We're planning to save my entire income between now and having kids to test out whether we can afford for me to be a SAHM.
My current calculation is that putting our savings on coast by only maxing out his 401k/IRA we should still be able to hit the 2030 goal. I'm hoping we'll be able to save a lot more than that even on one income, but he's brand new to the FIRE idea and still pretty excited that 10 years is possible.

Did anyone else change to one income? Did it change your ER plans a lot?

You're doing a really terrific job. My wife and I have changed between who was home, but only recently became a dedicated career-oriented couple, and it's specifically because we want to FIRE in 10-12 years.

I personally hate working like I do, and am miserable. The worst part is that I have it pretty good, and have interviewed for some highly desirable positions that when I get them, I'll also hate.

AfricanMustache

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #473 on: July 03, 2019, 04:33:22 PM »
I think we're in for 2028-2030. We're aiming for 1.2m. I think I'd be comfortable with a thinner FIRE budget, but we would need to move from our HCOL area when we retire to go mortgage free. We're getting a late start on the plan (36 & 40), just got married, and want to start a family in the next year so there's a lot of unknowns to how our saving will change over the next 10 years.

We're at little over 8X right now. We're planning to save my entire income between now and having kids to test out whether we can afford for me to be a SAHM.
My current calculation is that putting our savings on coast by only maxing out his 401k/IRA we should still be able to hit the 2030 goal. I'm hoping we'll be able to save a lot more than that even on one income, but he's brand new to the FIRE idea and still pretty excited that 10 years is possible.

Did anyone else change to one income? Did it change your ER plans a lot?

We changed to single-income about two months ago, in order for my wife to study full-time. I assumed it would delay our FIRE significantly but actually with the lifestyle changes we made we seem to be putting away much the same. Granted she was only making about 1/5th of our total income.

The change in our lives and happiness levels since have been truly huge though. Best decision we ever made. And doing it to SAHP would probably be 10 times more rewarding still.

haypug16

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #474 on: July 03, 2019, 06:55:42 PM »
Q2 2019 update
X= Yearly Expenses
2017 - Stache at 1.17x  - Ending Balance $29,448.59
2018 - Stache at 1.41x  - Ending Balance $35,167.30
2019 - Stache goal 2.5x  - Current balance $48,738.01(1.95x expenses)

A little less than $14K left for the year. When I return to work this month I will be putting in $1,120 into my 401k twice a month along with about $100 from a company match. I also still hope to fulling fund a Roth IRA. So if the market doesn't go down I will exceed my goal by about $5K. That would be very nice. I am also OK with buying some stock on sale if the market does go down. With over 10 years left to FIRE I have lots of time to ride out the ups and downs.

coffeefueled

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #475 on: July 08, 2019, 11:58:48 AM »
It's helpful to hear how others are aiming to FIRE on one income. I think it'll be a few months before we get a good picture of how our combined finances and trying one income work out. We're reasonably frugal but I suspect that we have a lot of room for more savings if we cut down on eating out and some of the other typical budget overspends that weren't a problem on two incomes.

terrifictim

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #476 on: July 10, 2019, 10:17:27 AM »
It's helpful to hear how others are aiming to FIRE on one income. I think it'll be a few months before we get a good picture of how our combined finances and trying one income work out. We're reasonably frugal but I suspect that we have a lot of room for more savings if we cut down on eating out and some of the other typical budget overspends that weren't a problem on two incomes.

I'm in the same boat. DW was a full-time teacher and we made the decision to have her leave full-time in preparation for family planning (aiming for Kid 1 in 2020-2021). Optimistic that a combination of SAHM, part time sub work will allow us to stay in this cohort. Same as above - hopeful that the loss of the 2nd income will be balanced by better budget (grocery shopping vs. eating out, less target/amazon misc purchases, etc.)

Must_ache

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #477 on: July 15, 2019, 12:29:54 PM »
I'm 47 and have a net worth of $780k excluding my $275k home which will be paid off in ten years.  At that point I will probably transition to half time with the hopes of retiring before 60. 
I would like to have $2M when I retire although I could settle for less depending on economic conditions.  I am more conservative than your typical mustachian, pessimistic about the stock market exuberance.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2019, 12:38:10 PM by Must_ache »

x02947

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #478 on: July 17, 2019, 11:01:15 AM »
It's helpful to hear how others are aiming to FIRE on one income. I think it'll be a few months before we get a good picture of how our combined finances and trying one income work out. We're reasonably frugal but I suspect that we have a lot of room for more savings if we cut down on eating out and some of the other typical budget overspends that weren't a problem on two incomes.

I'm in the same boat. DW was a full-time teacher and we made the decision to have her leave full-time in preparation for family planning (aiming for Kid 1 in 2020-2021). Optimistic that a combination of SAHM, part time sub work will allow us to stay in this cohort. Same as above - hopeful that the loss of the 2nd income will be balanced by better budget (grocery shopping vs. eating out, less target/amazon misc purchases, etc.)

We've always been only a single income family.  Particularly if the stay at home spouse really embraces frugality, you can definitely budget really well.  DW can spend 2-3 days at a consignment sale scouting out the best quality clothes for the cheapest price, wait till the last day half-off sale, and quickly purchase whatever is left.  Same thing with grocery shopping- she knows which stores put which items on sale, and when.  She can "freezer manage"- aka make large meals, freeze portions of them, and actually keep track of what's in the freezer so stuff doesn't get lost and we still get a good food rotation.  She can time her trips to avoid crowds (mostly) and traffic.

We are going to home-school the kids, so will remain a single income for a the foreseeable future.

dogboyslim

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #479 on: October 01, 2019, 03:16:23 PM »
Target date is my birthday in May 2030.  I will be 56.  Presently have 187 days of 365 funded (51%).  At retirement that will be 540 of 365 days (148%).  I will hit my expected full funding in October 2025.

I'm sticking around longer due to kids college expense and health care expense uncertainty.
3,877 days to go.  2,770 weekdays.  554 weeks. 10.6 years.


Chrissy

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #480 on: October 07, 2019, 11:53:47 AM »
I'm joining!  Husband will be 55 and I'll be 52.  Warrior Princess will be 14 and Chunky Baby will be 12.  Our worth has tracked as follows:

2015:  $591k, got married
2016:  $691k, Warrior Princess arrived
2017:  $795k
2018:  $900k, Chunky Baby arrived

We're at $893k right now due to taking on renovation debt.

Invested:  $538k
529s:  $90k  Front-loading, almost finished!
Cash:  $31k

The remainder is a car and some home equity.  With the kids in daycare and the reno, our savings rate is at an all-time low:  42%.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2019, 03:33:54 PM by Chrissy »

haypug16

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #481 on: October 07, 2019, 02:16:07 PM »
Q3 2019 update
X= Yearly Expenses
2017 - Stache at 1.17x  - Ending Balance $29,448.59
2018 - Stache at 1.41x  - Ending Balance $35,167.30
2019 - Stache goal 2.5x  - Current balance $52,868.44 (2.115x expenses)

I have about $10k left to reach my year end goal. I'm feeing optimistic that I'll hit it or at least come very close.

wbarnett

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #482 on: October 16, 2019, 12:46:45 PM »
I'm joining!  Husband will be 55 and I'll be 52.  Warrior Princess will be 14 and Chunky Baby will be 12.  Our worth has tracked as follows:

2015:  $591k, got married
2016:  $691k, Warrior Princess arrived
2017:  $795k
2018:  $924k, Chunky Baby arrived

We're at $893k right now due to taking on renovation debt.

Invested:  $538k
529s:  $90k  Front-loading, almost finished!
Cash:  $31k

The remainder is a car and some home equity.  With the kids in daycare and the reno, our savings rate is at an all-time low:  42%.

Welcome @Chrissy! The '$893k right now' number is great, congrats! I assume that's your net worth estimate, and the Invested + Cash amount is your FI progress, right? Can I ask why 2030? Are you trying to reach a certain FI number, or does 2030 make more sense since you have young children? I have young kids too.

At any rate, a minimum of 42% savings rate is fantastic.

Chrissy

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #483 on: October 16, 2019, 01:31:51 PM »
Hi @wbarnett .  Yes, Invested + Cash is our FI progress. 

So... Husband wants another baby.  Meanwhile, we spend $8.2k/mo (taxes not included), with $3k/mo of that being daycare.  It's hard for me to do the math imagining all the moving pieces, but, conservatively, by 2030, we should have $1.5M, a paid off house, college socked away for 3 kids, and no daycare costs.

x02947

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #484 on: October 18, 2019, 07:53:30 AM »
Finally convinced DW to let us drop the financial advisor.  Raising their rates to 1.7% without any warning was the last straw for her.  They also switched over the custodian of the account a few months ago and somehow dropped our automatic deposit, meaning nothing had been going into the IRA… (Things have been busy past few months so I haven’t been doing my due diligence till now). So *actually* moving everything over to Vanguard for a 75/25 VTSAX/VBTLX setup, instead of just talking about it! 

Spending is hard to tell this year.  I amortize things like vacations and home reno, both of which we have done this year, so in actuality we are way high.  If we actually stick to the amoritization budget (only 2 years under the belt so far, so not enough data) then we are within roughly 0.5% of last year.  There are somethings I failed to track last year. 

Still not getting any traction with DW agreement on actually RE, though.  Anytime I mention it, she just blows it off as foolhardy, prideful, etc.  I’ve tried couching it in terms of things we’ll be able to do (look at all the charity/volunteer work we will have time for!) but no luck.  It doesn’t help that I’m in a (for now) comfortable, low-stress job that, if I hang around at full time, gives us a pension (and health care!) we can fully live off of starting in 2045. It’s a bit odd- she’s frugal so we save lots of money, but she doesn’t believe any amount of money us non-multimillionaires have will actually do us any good in the long run.  I dunno.  It’s really a big concept to believe in, isn’t it?  I've got a couple years to work at it.

Chrissy

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #485 on: November 04, 2019, 04:06:31 PM »
Invested:  $538k
529s:  $90k
Cash:  $31k

Sure, I'll play.  We had a pretty fantastic month, and here's where we stand now:

Invested:  $560k
529s:  $94k 
Cash:  $34k
« Last Edit: November 04, 2019, 05:42:58 PM by Chrissy »

rebel_quietude

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #486 on: November 04, 2019, 04:08:28 PM »
Hi all!

You're right, @LWTG, it's been pretty quiet. I imagine in 2028 - 2029 this threat will be roaring. :)

Speaking for myself alone . . . a lot of just sticking with the plan, and living life (for better and worse).  I'm glad to see folks are doing well . . . reading through, it seems like everyone is doing about how they expected or better. We can all commiserate if equities push us back and forth a few years before our dates get closer.

Goodness, a lot of families in the making - congrats to all the parents in this thread!

I'll do another roster at the end of December, I do think we're grown quite a bit!


haypug16

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #487 on: November 04, 2019, 06:01:54 PM »
Doing well over here too. Sticking to the plan and the numbers are cooperating. This far out it's so hard to know how I'm really doing though.

I like to stalk the current year cohort to see all the fun FIRE activities, though I haven't in a little while. Soon it'll be time to start on the 2020 thread.

Mgmny

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #488 on: November 05, 2019, 07:44:20 AM »
I'm sure this has been asked and answered 100x, but i just can't seem to wrap my head around the "proper" answer:

Do you include home equity in your progress numbers?

On the one hand, if you have home equity, but still have a mortgage payment, that home equity is more or less worthless, right? So, maybe i should take it out of my stash number, and then include the mortgage payment (in perpetuity) as part of my 4% SWR yearly requirement...

On the other hand, I could cash this out and put it in the market and count it towards my stash, but then i suppose my monthly payment would be higher...

On the third hand, I could count it because it makes me feel like i am making better progress (my home equity is like $180k right now - so not nothing)

On the last hand, I could plan to pay off my mortgage and not count it towards my stash, and just leave it out of the equation...

What is everyone doing?

When i examine the extremes, i think of things like, "Well, i could have a 1.2 million dollar house with 200k loan on it, and $1 million saved. If i completely disregard the house, I have a SWR of 40k a year. If I downsize the house, I could have a SWR of $80k ($1M house + $1M investments) - doubling my yearly income.

What is everyone else doing? Maybe it all depends on our goals for our houses, but i know there is a "right" answer in the math somewhere.

Lucky Recardito

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #489 on: November 05, 2019, 07:59:38 AM »
The "right" answer depends on your plans for your house + FIRE.

For our situation, we plan to stay in our current home for the forseeable ever (which obviously isn't actually "forever" -- but basically, no plans to move, FIRED or not). Thus, the calculation I use for FI is basically (amount needed to pay off remaining mortgage balance) + (anticipated living expenses sans mortgage x 25).

Another way to think of it: I calculate our net worth and overall progress as (cash/stock/bond savings) + (home equity) -- in which "home equity" is specifically (original purchase price of house) - (remaining mortgage). In other words, I don't pay any attention to whether our property value is going up or down, because it doesn't impact our FIRE plans since we don't plan to sell our home.

In practice, I expect us to FIRE with a pot of money that is enough to cover our non-mortgage living expenses in perpetuity (to the extent it's possible to plan for perpetuity, in any case), plus enough money to pay off our remaining mortgage balance. (Whether we actually choose to pay off the remaining mortgage at FIRE or keep the payments flowing is TBD.)

The main gap in your post, @Mgmny , is that there is no situation in which you would need to consider your mortgage payment a perpetual expense. It will go away at some point, because mortgages eventually end. So it's not correct to include it in your overall 4% number -- you should think of your mortgage payment as a temporary expense. I find that 25x non-mortgage expenses plus "whatever's going to be left on the mortgage" to be a logical way to think about this.

The other piece, then, is whether you consider your home equity to be "spendable" in your WR calculation. Since I plan to live in my home, I don't count it. Covering the cost of our house is important in our FIRE planning, but the house doesn't create income for us to live off of. But if you plan to sell your home in RE, then your mileage will vary.

brandon1827

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #490 on: November 05, 2019, 08:24:54 AM »
Still plugging along here. The 401K has grown nicely and the new pension statements will be available January 1st. We've been on pause in terms of saving the past couple of months due to my wife quitting her job and then having a couple of surgeries. She hopes to get back in the market and start working soon; which would allow us to re-start the debt payoff/savings in full.

Like Lucky, we are in our forever home on a 20-acre plot of land and do not intend to ever sell. The hope is to pay off the mortgage as quickly as possible and at some point after FIRE, give the house to our son; while we move into the detached garage apartment. I say all of that to say that we don't factor home equity into our particular equation at all.

Mgmny

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #491 on: November 05, 2019, 08:34:13 AM »
The "right" answer depends on your plans for your house + FIRE.

For our situation, we plan to stay in our current home for the forseeable ever (which obviously isn't actually "forever" -- but basically, no plans to move, FIRED or not). Thus, the calculation I use for FI is basically (amount needed to pay off remaining mortgage balance) + (anticipated living expenses sans mortgage x 25).

Another way to think of it: I calculate our net worth and overall progress as (cash/stock/bond savings) + (home equity) -- in which "home equity" is specifically (original purchase price of house) - (remaining mortgage). In other words, I don't pay any attention to whether our property value is going up or down, because it doesn't impact our FIRE plans since we don't plan to sell our home.

In practice, I expect us to FIRE with a pot of money that is enough to cover our non-mortgage living expenses in perpetuity (to the extent it's possible to plan for perpetuity, in any case), plus enough money to pay off our remaining mortgage balance. (Whether we actually choose to pay off the remaining mortgage at FIRE or keep the payments flowing is TBD.)

The main gap in your post, @Mgmny , is that there is no situation in which you would need to consider your mortgage payment a perpetual expense. It will go away at some point, because mortgages eventually end. So it's not correct to include it in your overall 4% number -- you should think of your mortgage payment as a temporary expense. I find that 25x non-mortgage expenses plus "whatever's going to be left on the mortgage" to be a logical way to think about this.

The other piece, then, is whether you consider your home equity to be "spendable" in your WR calculation. Since I plan to live in my home, I don't count it. Covering the cost of our house is important in our FIRE planning, but the house doesn't create income for us to live off of. But if you plan to sell your home in RE, then your mileage will vary.

Thanks Lucky!!

So, in summary, i think: If my fire number is $1million, and i owe $200k on my house, I should really shoot for $1.2million... then everything works out? Is that what you are saying?

startingsmall

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #492 on: November 05, 2019, 08:46:21 AM »
I'm sure this has been asked and answered 100x, but i just can't seem to wrap my head around the "proper" answer:

Do you include home equity in your progress numbers?

On the one hand, if you have home equity, but still have a mortgage payment, that home equity is more or less worthless, right? So, maybe i should take it out of my stash number, and then include the mortgage payment (in perpetuity) as part of my 4% SWR yearly requirement...

On the other hand, I could cash this out and put it in the market and count it towards my stash, but then i suppose my monthly payment would be higher...

On the third hand, I could count it because it makes me feel like i am making better progress (my home equity is like $180k right now - so not nothing)

On the last hand, I could plan to pay off my mortgage and not count it towards my stash, and just leave it out of the equation...

What is everyone doing?

When i examine the extremes, i think of things like, "Well, i could have a 1.2 million dollar house with 200k loan on it, and $1 million saved. If i completely disregard the house, I have a SWR of 40k a year. If I downsize the house, I could have a SWR of $80k ($1M house + $1M investments) - doubling my yearly income.

What is everyone else doing? Maybe it all depends on our goals for our houses, but i know there is a "right" answer in the math somewhere.

I also track two numbers:
1. net worth  (which includes Zillow value minus mortgage)
2. FIRE assets (which excludes both the home value and the mortgage)

I look at the net worth as a "cool! neato!" number and the FIRE asset number as what actually matters.

We plan on downsizing before FIRE, but will likely roll all of our equity from this home into the next home... so my FIRE budget includes a mortgage payment that's significantly lower than our current mortgage payment but I don't consider our home equity to be part of our FIRE assets.

Mgmny

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #493 on: November 05, 2019, 09:34:15 AM »
I'm sure this has been asked and answered 100x, but i just can't seem to wrap my head around the "proper" answer:

Do you include home equity in your progress numbers?

On the one hand, if you have home equity, but still have a mortgage payment, that home equity is more or less worthless, right? So, maybe i should take it out of my stash number, and then include the mortgage payment (in perpetuity) as part of my 4% SWR yearly requirement...

On the other hand, I could cash this out and put it in the market and count it towards my stash, but then i suppose my monthly payment would be higher...

On the third hand, I could count it because it makes me feel like i am making better progress (my home equity is like $180k right now - so not nothing)

On the last hand, I could plan to pay off my mortgage and not count it towards my stash, and just leave it out of the equation...

What is everyone doing?

When i examine the extremes, i think of things like, "Well, i could have a 1.2 million dollar house with 200k loan on it, and $1 million saved. If i completely disregard the house, I have a SWR of 40k a year. If I downsize the house, I could have a SWR of $80k ($1M house + $1M investments) - doubling my yearly income.

What is everyone else doing? Maybe it all depends on our goals for our houses, but i know there is a "right" answer in the math somewhere.

I also track two numbers:
1. net worth  (which includes Zillow value minus mortgage)
2. FIRE assets (which excludes both the home value and the mortgage)

I look at the net worth as a "cool! neato!" number and the FIRE asset number as what actually matters.

We plan on downsizing before FIRE, but will likely roll all of our equity from this home into the next home... so my FIRE budget includes a mortgage payment that's significantly lower than our current mortgage payment but I don't consider our home equity to be part of our FIRE assets.

Ah, ok, that makes sense.

Mgmny

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #494 on: November 05, 2019, 09:36:22 AM »
On tracking house value - I have two numbers, one is our total net worth and one is our total investments. Our net worth includes our mortgage liability and the purchase price of our house because that's a static number. It saves me having to track whatever Zillow thinks our home is worth month to month, plus I don't trust Zillow's math. Really it just saves me over thinking it when it doesn't really matter in the long run, I overthink plenty of other things.

So, when looking at your FIRE number, it's just the investments? or TNW?

meerkat

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #495 on: November 05, 2019, 10:12:00 AM »
On tracking house value - I have two numbers, one is our total net worth and one is our total investments. Our net worth includes our mortgage liability and the purchase price of our house because that's a static number. It saves me having to track whatever Zillow thinks our home is worth month to month, plus I don't trust Zillow's math. Really it just saves me over thinking it when it doesn't really matter in the long run, I overthink plenty of other things.

So, when looking at your FIRE number, it's just the investments? or TNW?

Investments, or other cash flow.

Lucky Recardito

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #496 on: November 05, 2019, 11:37:51 AM »
The "right" answer depends on your plans for your house + FIRE.

For our situation, we plan to stay in our current home for the forseeable ever (which obviously isn't actually "forever" -- but basically, no plans to move, FIRED or not). Thus, the calculation I use for FI is basically (amount needed to pay off remaining mortgage balance) + (anticipated living expenses sans mortgage x 25).

Another way to think of it: I calculate our net worth and overall progress as (cash/stock/bond savings) + (home equity) -- in which "home equity" is specifically (original purchase price of house) - (remaining mortgage). In other words, I don't pay any attention to whether our property value is going up or down, because it doesn't impact our FIRE plans since we don't plan to sell our home.

In practice, I expect us to FIRE with a pot of money that is enough to cover our non-mortgage living expenses in perpetuity (to the extent it's possible to plan for perpetuity, in any case), plus enough money to pay off our remaining mortgage balance. (Whether we actually choose to pay off the remaining mortgage at FIRE or keep the payments flowing is TBD.)

The main gap in your post, @Mgmny , is that there is no situation in which you would need to consider your mortgage payment a perpetual expense. It will go away at some point, because mortgages eventually end. So it's not correct to include it in your overall 4% number -- you should think of your mortgage payment as a temporary expense. I find that 25x non-mortgage expenses plus "whatever's going to be left on the mortgage" to be a logical way to think about this.

The other piece, then, is whether you consider your home equity to be "spendable" in your WR calculation. Since I plan to live in my home, I don't count it. Covering the cost of our house is important in our FIRE planning, but the house doesn't create income for us to live off of. But if you plan to sell your home in RE, then your mileage will vary.

Thanks Lucky!!

So, in summary, i think: If my fire number is $1million, and i owe $200k on my house, I should really shoot for $1.2million... then everything works out? Is that what you are saying?

Basically, yep!

Caveats/clarifications:

1) In the example you've described, make sure that $1m "FIRE number" does includes property tax & insurance, as that don't go away with the mortgage. (Easy to forget that if you escrow and currently pay those costs as part of your mortgage payment.)

2) "if I owe $200K on my house..." -- key here is to think about mortgage balance at the time you reach FI. So, if you currently owe $200K but don't plan to FIRE for another 10 years, look at what will be left at your mortgage in 10 years... because you'll be paying down the mortgage in small pieces while you work on accumulating your stash. (You may have already been thinking this... I'm just over-clarifying!)

#2 is why I've chosen to count our home equity in our NW calculation, and use that number as my FIRE number -- it's easier to see where I'm at overall. In my case... we're shooting for $1.5m in invested assets (to support a $60K annual withdrawal), but also cover our $800K home (HCOL area), which we've only owned for 3 years, and in which we only have 25% equity. If I only track that "$1.5m in invested assets" goal, I'd be lying to myself about FIRE timelines, as we'll hit that first, while we still have a ways to go on the house. So for me, it makes sense to look at the total goal!

DadJokes

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #497 on: November 05, 2019, 11:50:11 AM »
I thought I had already joined this cohort, but apparently not.

2030 is a bit of an ambitious goal and my projections put me closer to 2034 right now, but a lot can change in a decade, and I don't yet know how my pension, social security, and home equity will play into things.

Year              Net Worth           Investments        % to FI               
201860,89819,8121.32%
Today122,01169,4194.63%
2019130,85075,6595.04%
2020204,724135,7378.87%
2021280,905197,01412.62%
2022370,418266,54116.74%
2023479,614345,09121.24%
2024587,812433,51226.15%
2025707,502532,72831.5%
2026839,887643,90637.32%
2027986,253768,33843.65%
20281,147,991907,24650.53%
20291,326,0221,062,13757.98%
20301,522,9681,234,62266.07%

Assumptions:
Annual 3% pay increase, 75% of which goes to investments
9% market returns
2% inflation
Home equity & increased value is not included in investments
Pension is not included in investments; it looks like its value in 2030 will be about $100k.

66% FI is a withdrawal rate of 6%, which could be safe depending on the value of the pension. It's also highly unlikely that both my wife and I will quit working at the same time with neither of us earning another dime. We also have a child who will be 12 by then, so I'm sure there will be expenses associated with him.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2019, 03:06:05 PM by DadJokes »

WGH

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #498 on: November 08, 2019, 12:31:51 PM »
A lot has changed for me since I last posted! Looking to buy a house with my GF next summer and plan on renting my current place. Increased my 457 contributions and realized that I could finally comfortably max out my contributions this year for the first time ever. I already pay into a government pension so I'm one of the lucky ones who can go over the $19k pretax limits. Currently will spend the next few months saving for another home down payment and then max out next year.

Next year should be even better with our blended family and no longer needing childcare plus the dual incomes. GF is even more frugal than I am so it should be very exciting to see what we can accomplish together.

4,431 days until I am fully eligible to draw my pension which will pay close to $4k a month plus about $1M about evenly between the 457 and ROTH IRA. I will be 51.

Life is good!

Rural

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #499 on: November 08, 2019, 05:49:25 PM »
I guess 2030 is me in the worst case scenario. I will qualify for retiree health benefits for me and my family in December 2030. Depending on how the politics of health care goes over the next few years, we could go earlier, and my husband could go before me anyway- he can't get the retiree health deal since it's been discontinued but I'm grandfathered in.


On an up note, though, I vested in the pension on Halloween, and the record of vesting showed up in the pension plan online portal about 15 minutes ago (not that I was watching and hitting refresh or anything)!