Author Topic: 2030 FIRE Cohort  (Read 200273 times)

AfricanMustache

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #350 on: August 10, 2018, 01:50:31 PM »
Welcome AfricanMustache! (Man, I’m only 4 posts old and already welcoming people, lol).  I’m sorry, I really don’t have any advice regarding your mortgage/stash scenario.  That’s way beyond my level of expertise.  Maybe try posting this in the larger forum, possibly the Ask a Mustachian subforum.  That way you would get exposure to some users with more MMM experience than us- possibly even another South African Mustachian! Either way though, I wish you the best of luck and please keep us posted!


Thank you very much! I will definitely try one of the broader forums since I guess it is more specialized stuff :)

Road2Freedom

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #351 on: August 24, 2018, 11:25:50 AM »
Setting this as our goal, but may be a stretch as Personal Capital says we have a 52% chance of our portfolio supporting our goals.  Also likely in for a rough patch at end of year due to wife's position being moved overseas.  She'll receive a severance and there's still a chance she may be kept on.  Until then, we'll keep on keepin' on.

Age: 42 (me) & 45 (DW)

Net worth: $482,632 (includes $30,342 that is in a 529 and other investments for our son who is 16)
Rollover IRAs: $120,969 (me) and $44,329 (DW)
Mutual Funds: $40,343
Roth IRA: $42,826 (me)
401Ks: $31,506 (me) and $118,387 (DW)
Cash: $54,224 (checking/savings - fluctuates quite a bit as one can expect)
529 & other college funds for our son who is 16:  $30,342

We have no debt and currently rent (long story short is we plan on moving after our son finishes HS in 2019).

NW - 521,381.

Figure I would do a quick update.  Won't break out the numbers, but can say that I maxed out my Roth IRA earlier this week and also bumped up our 401Ks to 20% (DW) and 25% (me) since finding the FI community back in May.

DW has also been extended to March and there's a possibility she may be kept on as the move overseas hasn't gone well.   Negative is they were acquired by a new company and health insurance is not as good and also more expensive.  May have to adjust 401K contributions in order to put money into a HSA.  Must say we were fortunate to have incredible insurance for so many years.

NW - $558,000.  Market's hot start to the year has really helped out.  Personal Capital shows an increase of slightly over $19,000 since Jan 1. 

Still figuring out how much of an impact having high deductible health insurance will have this year.
First, the bad...
So getting a big taste of having a HDHP and crazy to see what they bill you.  Ended up breaking a finger on my left hand (surgery) and fracturing my right wrist a couple weeks ago.  Talk about fun times.  At least the right hand is in a brace and should heal on its own.  Looks like I've hit my $4K deductible (plan started Jul 1) and will likely hit the individual out of pocket ($6850) soon.  Paid the hospital almost $3200 and just found out today that they overcharged me by almost $900 so get to chase that refund down next week.

And the good:
Wife ended up losing her job in May, got a decent severance (7 months), and started a new job earlier this month.  She has to commute now, so she's getting used to that, but she is actually making more money.  I set her 401K to 30% (max they allow) to try and stuff as much away as possible.  Plan is to also move closer to where we work after our son graduates next year.  Homes and taxes are definitely higher, but hope that will offset the time and money gained by having a shorter commute.

I'm in a 100% commission (recoverable draw) role and hit a pretty nice run this spring/summer that will end up being my best year to date.  That run, and the money that's finally starting to come in, will put me close to maxing my 401K at the end of the month.  Have never done that before and will try to add money to maximize paying for the medical bills.  I wish they would allow you to pick an amount so you could hit the number on the nose, but they only allow full percentages.

Finding the FIRE community last year has been great.  Helped me focus even more on saving for retirement and identifying cost saving opportunities.  Such a wealth of information on there. 



Lucky Recardito

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #352 on: August 24, 2018, 11:46:40 AM »
@Road2Freedom -- I noticed that you don't have an HSA on your list of assets, but you're on an HDHP. If you don't have an HSA, it should be on your to-do list pronto! That's another $6900 (assuming you and your family are on the same plan) you can contribute to a tax-sheltered account this year, and it effectively lowers the cost of future medical bills by your marginal tax rate (+ your half of payroll taxes if your HSA is set up through your employer and funded via paycheck deductions).

letsdoit

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #353 on: August 24, 2018, 12:15:26 PM »
we still have not maxed out 401s and ROth IRAs since the baby. 
i guess trying counts

Road2Freedom

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #354 on: August 24, 2018, 01:13:53 PM »
@Road2Freedom -- I noticed that you don't have an HSA on your list of assets, but you're on an HDHP. If you don't have an HSA, it should be on your to-do list pronto! That's another $6900 (assuming you and your family are on the same plan) you can contribute to a tax-sheltered account this year, and it effectively lowers the cost of future medical bills by your marginal tax rate (+ your half of payroll taxes if your HSA is set up through your employer and funded via paycheck deductions).

I do now.  When I started posting we were under my wife's PPO because it was ridiculously good and cheap.  I've only been doing $100 per pay period, but plan on ramping that up now that I'm maxing out my 401K.  Checks were pretty tight when I didn't have any commissions coming in and it was just a draw.

I also have to figure out if I can max my HSA or not.  My wife was on her own HDHP until May, is currently on mine, but will be moving to her new employers later this year.  Not sure if her contributions would count against what I can put into my plan.

I also have accidental insurance through my company so there's a chance I'll get reimbursed on some of the expenses.  They called me today and asked for additional details / medical statements to see if I'll get anything.

I haven't updated the individual list of assets since last year.

Road2Freedom

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #355 on: August 24, 2018, 01:18:50 PM »
we still have not maxed out 401s and ROth IRAs since the baby. 
i guess trying counts

I would say so!  I'd never done it before but made it a priority to try this year.  Our 401K only allows a 25% max contribution per pay period.  Kind of sucks when you're on a variable income because it's really tight at times and then you're unable to dump extra money when you have a good commission check.

Having a 17yr old also makes it tough:-).  They're expensive.

Lucky Recardito

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #356 on: August 24, 2018, 01:47:27 PM »
@Road2Freedom -- I noticed that you don't have an HSA on your list of assets, but you're on an HDHP. If you don't have an HSA, it should be on your to-do list pronto! That's another $6900 (assuming you and your family are on the same plan) you can contribute to a tax-sheltered account this year, and it effectively lowers the cost of future medical bills by your marginal tax rate (+ your half of payroll taxes if your HSA is set up through your employer and funded via paycheck deductions).

I do now.  When I started posting we were under my wife's PPO because it was ridiculously good and cheap.  I've only been doing $100 per pay period, but plan on ramping that up now that I'm maxing out my 401K.  Checks were pretty tight when I didn't have any commissions coming in and it was just a draw.

I also have to figure out if I can max my HSA or not.  My wife was on her own HDHP until May, is currently on mine, but will be moving to her new employers later this year.  Not sure if her contributions would count against what I can put into my plan.


Re. HSA max: since you have a child, I'm guessing that one of you has coverage just for yourself, and the other has coverage for yourself+child? In that case, your limit TOGETHER for 2018 is $6900 (so whatever your spouse puts in her HSA, + whatever you put in your HSA, and inclusive of any contribution from either employer).

Re. HSA use in general: a couple of esoteric points that might be useful to your situation --

1) You can reimburse yourself from your HSA for any expenses incurred after the HSA was opened, even if you don't actually have the money in the account until later. Example: You opened the HSA 1/1/2018. You had an accident w/ $6,000 in medical expenses in March, but you only had $300 in your HSA at that time, so you paid the bill out of pocket. That's okay! You can keep contributing to that HSA this year (and beyond), and reimburse yourself for that $6,000 medical expenditure at any point in the future, once you have the funds.

2) Even though you and your spouse have separate HSAs, you can use the funds in those HSAs for each other's expenses. Limits for contributing to an HSA are all about who is covered under the connected health plan; spending from an HSA is all about who is in your tax household.

That said, there's also nothing wrong with just leaving the $$ in your HSA(s) and letting it grow since you've already paid the expenses. But keep all the receipts from medical expenses you pay out of pocket, b/c you can reimburse yourself for them at any time in the future (which could help with cash flow in early retirement, for example -- or just any time in the future wh en you need a way to access tax-sheltered funds without penalty).

Road2Freedom

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #357 on: August 24, 2018, 02:04:53 PM »
@Road2Freedom -- I noticed that you don't have an HSA on your list of assets, but you're on an HDHP. If you don't have an HSA, it should be on your to-do list pronto! That's another $6900 (assuming you and your family are on the same plan) you can contribute to a tax-sheltered account this year, and it effectively lowers the cost of future medical bills by your marginal tax rate (+ your half of payroll taxes if your HSA is set up through your employer and funded via paycheck deductions).

I do now.  When I started posting we were under my wife's PPO because it was ridiculously good and cheap.  I've only been doing $100 per pay period, but plan on ramping that up now that I'm maxing out my 401K.  Checks were pretty tight when I didn't have any commissions coming in and it was just a draw.

I also have to figure out if I can max my HSA or not.  My wife was on her own HDHP until May, is currently on mine, but will be moving to her new employers later this year.  Not sure if her contributions would count against what I can put into my plan.


Re. HSA max: since you have a child, I'm guessing that one of you has coverage just for yourself, and the other has coverage for yourself+child? In that case, your limit TOGETHER for 2018 is $6900 (so whatever your spouse puts in her HSA, + whatever you put in your HSA, and inclusive of any contribution from either employer).

Re. HSA use in general: a couple of esoteric points that might be useful to your situation --

1) You can reimburse yourself from your HSA for any expenses incurred after the HSA was opened, even if you don't actually have the money in the account until later. Example: You opened the HSA 1/1/2018. You had an accident w/ $6,000 in medical expenses in March, but you only had $300 in your HSA at that time, so you paid the bill out of pocket. That's okay! You can keep contributing to that HSA this year (and beyond), and reimburse yourself for that $6,000 medical expenditure at any point in the future, once you have the funds.

2) Even though you and your spouse have separate HSAs, you can use the funds in those HSAs for each other's expenses. Limits for contributing to an HSA are all about who is covered under the connected health plan; spending from an HSA is all about who is in your tax household.

That said, there's also nothing wrong with just leaving the $$ in your HSA(s) and letting it grow since you've already paid the expenses. But keep all the receipts from medical expenses you pay out of pocket, b/c you can reimburse yourself for them at any time in the future (which could help with cash flow in early retirement, for example -- or just any time in the future when you need a way to access tax-sheltered funds without penalty).

REALLY appreciate all the info!  Wasn't sure how the max contribution worked and good to know I have the option of reimbursing myself at a later date.
 Our son was/is under my plan and will remain when she goes to her new employers.  Ended up being the lowest monthly cost.

I'll have to ask her again what she has in her balance since her former employer made a contribution when their company's plan changed in Jan.

Nate R

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #358 on: August 26, 2018, 04:20:04 PM »
Just updating on my progress.

I've been convinced to be a bit more conservative by my reading of Big ERN's blog.

So, really aiming for 28.5X around 2030, and will have some other small income as well to hit that #. (And some to pay off my house, too.)

Stache is at 4.6x today, so probably about right on track. :-)

Hit $250K total NW this month, and the stache is just under 5.5x. Chugging along!

haypug16

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #359 on: August 31, 2018, 08:12:11 AM »
Just updating on my progress.

I've been convinced to be a bit more conservative by my reading of Big ERN's blog.

So, really aiming for 28.5X around 2030, and will have some other small income as well to hit that #. (And some to pay off my house, too.)

Stache is at 4.6x today, so probably about right on track. :-)

Hit $250K total NW this month, and the stache is just under 5.5x. Chugging along!

Sweet! Quarter of a Million :)

X= Yearly Expenses
2017 - Stache at 1x   $25,000 - Ending Balance $29,448.59
2018 - Stache at 2x   $50,000 - current balance $35,843.32 = 1.43x expenses
2019 - Stache at 3x   
2020 - Stache at 4.5x   
2021 - Stache at 6x   
2022 - Stache at 8x   
2023 - Stache at 10x   
2024 - Stache at 12x   
2025 - Stache at 14x   
2026 - Stache at 16x   
2027 - Stache at 18x   
2028 - Stache at 20x   
2029 - Stache at 22x   
2030 - Retire by end of year with 25x yearly expense rate

I think I'm going to hit closer to 1.7x at the end of the year. I am still working on Student Loans and that's taking a good chunk of my "extra" money. Still pleased with my upward trend and each month the increase is getting bigger and bigger. :)

Guava

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #360 on: September 05, 2018, 07:46:31 AM »
It's been awhile since I last posted because I needed to step away from lots of things to lighten my anxiety. The good news is that since I stepped away from tracking money I was able to relax a bit and focus on accomplishing things around the house.

Our new building is finished and the net worth hit is hardly noticeable. My pregnancy is going well (thanks to Lucky Recardito, rebel_quietude, and HappierAtHome for your kind words) and I even had a month or two where I felt pretty good! We even already hit our year end investment goal in the month of August.

Thanks for all of the support here everyone. I love reading all of the progress and stories.

letsdoit

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #361 on: September 05, 2018, 09:22:50 AM »
what did big ERN say, or where do i read it?

Nate R

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #362 on: September 05, 2018, 11:17:57 AM »
what did big ERN say, or where do i read it?

Got a month? :-D 
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-intro/

There are now 28 parts to this series. But the messages become clear over time.
 It all depends on your risk tolerance and beliefs about future returns, etc. But I like ERN's approach to W/D rates, and it makes sense to ME. For me, the increase in "safety factor" going from 4% to 3.5% or so is worth it. Not so say my tune wouldn't change if I was sitting at 3.9% right now or something.  ;-)

letsdoit

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #363 on: September 05, 2018, 04:06:59 PM »
golly jeebers.
ERN has too much info
maybe i can just call him and he'll tell me what to do

MrOnyx

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #364 on: September 06, 2018, 02:08:09 AM »
Not to turn this thread into another just how safe is the 4% SWR? thread, but the thing with calculations, predictions and studies like this, is that they assume a very robotic spending/withdrawal behaviour. They assume that you're going to literally do this...

if month == January {
    withdraw amount_equal_to_expenses from portfolio
    };

(Substitute as necessary for timing/frequency of withdrawal)

... without even thinking about other factors. For example, "Huh, another economic disaster on scale with the 1920's? My entire portfolio is down over 50%? Better withdraw the same amount I did last year." Thing is, nobody does this. If you did, then that year you'd be withdrawing around 8% of your portfolio's value, breaking the 4% rule.

In reality, you'd notice things like that and adjust as necessary. Maybe do some freelance/part time work to tide you over til the market recovers. Flexibility and other safety margins are king here imho.

Again, I know this is a hot topic, and I don't want to drive us off on too much of a tangent here, but it's just something to consider. At the end of the day, you pick your own risk tolerance, do your own thing, and more power to you for it. But for me personally, when there are this many early retirees - including those who are here on this forum - who have found massive success with the 25x expense, 4% SWR rule, it's good enough for me! :)

AfricanMustache

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #365 on: September 06, 2018, 05:29:55 AM »
Since you brought it up, I recently came across a paper by a certain Prof. Wade Pfau. Not sure if it's been discussed before. Link here: http://dl.stealthywealth.co.za/AnInternationalPerspectiveOnSafeWithdrawalRates.pdf

He looked at SWRs for different countries, which is of interest to me since I am not U.S. based. It comes down to the 4% rule working only for 4 out of the 17 countries studied. Good news for U.S. retirees is that his study also confirmed the 4% rule as being safe over a 30-year period in the U.S., supporting the findings of the Trinity study. Interestingly maximum safety occurred with a 57-60% stock allocation in retirement. SWR falls below 4% at higher (>70%) and lower (<30%) stock allocation. So 4% was safe provided you get your AA right.

For international MMMers like myself it is not as rosy though. The 4% SWR provided 100% safety only in Canada, U.S., Sweden and Denmark. For other countries like my own South Africa, Australia, U.K. and others the 4% rule didn't provide adequate safety over a 30-year period.

So personally I'd be aiming for at least 3.5%. It is far less risky and less dependent on perfect AA.

Nate R

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #366 on: September 06, 2018, 08:49:14 AM »
Not to turn this thread into another just how safe is the 4% SWR? thread, but the thing with calculations, predictions and studies like this, is that they assume a very robotic spending/withdrawal behaviour. They assume that you're going to literally do this...

if month == January {
    withdraw amount_equal_to_expenses from portfolio
    };

(Substitute as necessary for timing/frequency of withdrawal)

... without even thinking about other factors. For example, "Huh, another economic disaster on scale with the 1920's? My entire portfolio is down over 50%? Better withdraw the same amount I did last year." Thing is, nobody does this. If you did, then that year you'd be withdrawing around 8% of your portfolio's value, breaking the 4% rule.

In reality, you'd notice things like that and adjust as necessary. Maybe do some freelance/part time work to tide you over til the market recovers. Flexibility and other safety margins are king here imho.

Again, I know this is a hot topic, and I don't want to drive us off on too much of a tangent here, but it's just something to consider. At the end of the day, you pick your own risk tolerance, do your own thing, and more power to you for it. But for me personally, when there are this many early retirees - including those who are here on this forum - who have found massive success with the 25x expense, 4% SWR rule, it's good enough for me! :)

I don't want to elaborate too much on this, but ERN's series covers these kinds of things, and does backtesting "what-ifs." If the market drops X, and you go back to work, what's your safe W/D rate THEN, etc. He's got a whole bit on "flexibility." He's got "too much info" because it takes that much input to have your output be a smart, informed decision to cover the what-ifs.
I had thought the same thing, "I'm flexible, I can do x or y, I'll be fine." But actually running the numbers in those scenarios as ERN does is eye-opening.

I agree that everyone has to come to their own conclusions. I just think ERN has done the best job I've seen yet of testing a wide variety of scenarios and what-ifs. Trying to emulate reality better.

Torios

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #367 on: September 07, 2018, 05:24:33 AM »
Hi,

7 years from FI using MadFientist's Lab calculator, married to someone much smarter than me. I've been a reader for about 5 years now, where I discovered this stuff in college and it definitely set me on the right path. Super proud of my $450 rent for my 2bd apartment only 10 mins from my work in an unbelievably safe area for the cost of living. Joining this group because I have 9 years left on my contract for my job, so its kind of moot if I achieve FI but can't actually quit my job. Wife is still in school, so when she leaves, we should accelerate progress by a little bit by not needing to maintain another apartment and hopefully increasing her modest research salary.

Despite having done what I feel to be all the right things, zero debt (and married someone with zero debt and an even less spendy lifestyle), saving/investing every spare penny possible, I see only incremental gains each month... and its a little depresssing, especially after the wholesale buffet style consumption of FI material where you listen every day to someone that has already made it and talking about how awesome it is.

Does anyone else, despite the glorious promise of freedom down the road, get a little depressed when the day to day progress is so painstakingly slow?

rebel_quietude

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #368 on: September 07, 2018, 06:07:25 AM »
Welcome, Torios!

It feels like forever in the beginning. Do me a favor and check in a few years from now, when your 'stache is making you far more money than your 9-5. It'll happen, and it'll feel like a miracle. Just ignore the day to day, focus on your spending, and find some hobbies to enjoy in your retirement!

MrOnyx

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #369 on: September 07, 2018, 06:21:52 AM »
Thanks for posting that, @rebel_quietude! Deep down, I needed that, too, I think.

The problem is that it becomes very, very easy to daydream while reading MMM, imagining being in his shoes, having his absolute freedom - with 100% of his time to do as he wishes...

Then you remember you're at work and need to get that report done...

I found this to cause quite a dissonance and almost an impatience. But I know I must be patient. Ten years is still ten years; not ten weeks.

Just lately I've been getting bogged down with this that and the other, like the brief 4% discussion above, but I know I just need to grit my teeth and keep going. A few years down the line, I'll be in a far better, more comfortable position, and it'll have been so very worth it. Worrying over the tiny details don't matter much in the end, I'm sure.

@Torios, you're doing great and by the sounds of it, you're in an absolutely fantastic position! Congrats, and good luck! The thing about us young people is that time is on our side. This is going to take a few years, but the best bit is that we'll still be relatively young when it's over! :)

letsdoit

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #370 on: September 07, 2018, 07:02:17 AM »
let's focus on squeezing as much as we can from today!

AfricanMustache

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #371 on: September 08, 2018, 05:03:45 AM »
I also tend to get bogged down in the numbers and the dream of FI (which I know will happen), and have recently found it difficult to just live in the present as well.

I'm at a stage in my career where I've reached most of what I've been working toward all my adult life and now reaping the financial rewards. Many money mistakes made along the way, but since finding MMM a short while back I have this absolute focus on FI and I know it is very achievable now that big house spending is done.

It is the start of our real accumulation phase - exciting but I must remind myself to also enjoy what life has to offer in the mean time.

x02947

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #372 on: September 08, 2018, 05:53:07 AM »
Indeed.  I also get bogged down in spreadsheets and dreaming of what I will do with all my FIRE time, and then frustrated.  But that's not the point of FIRE!  I have to consciously remind myself that it is a long term goal- when I started college as a freshman I didn't focus all the time on what graduation would be like- I went and enjoyed my time as a freshman.
Now, I generally take a break from the forum for a couple days and try to something now that I want to do then.  Case in point- I was going to go crunch the numbers for an update this morning, but since I know things are going well and the update would not actually *do* anything for me, I'm going to go grab the kiddos and dog and take a walk before it gets too hot outside :)


aceyou

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #373 on: September 14, 2018, 12:21:56 PM »
Yeah, I can relate to a lot of what you are all saying.  Recently though it's started sinking in that even though I'm not close to FIRE yet, I've essentially won the game already.  The plan is basically bulletproof, I just have to work out the clock. 

Between now and then there's plenty to enjoy...

  • I get to enjoy the funnest years with my children(they are 6 and 3 currently)
  • My wife is as young and beautiful as she'll ever be...although she weirdly seems to get more beautiful with each year, so who knows:)
  • Me and my whole family are in relative good health
  • Great neighbors and friends.

FIRE will be amazing, but it won't offer me anything better than the list of things I already have today.  THESE ARE THE GOOD OLD DAYS!!!


MrOnyx

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #374 on: September 15, 2018, 03:48:40 AM »
Yeah, I can relate to a lot of what you are all saying.  Recently though it's started sinking in that even though I'm not close to FIRE yet, I've essentially won the game already.  The plan is basically bulletproof, I just have to work out the clock. 

Between now and then there's plenty to enjoy...

  • I get to enjoy the funnest years with my children(they are 6 and 3 currently)
  • My wife is as young and beautiful as she'll ever be...although she weirdly seems to get more beautiful with each year, so who knows:)
  • Me and my whole family are in relative good health
  • Great neighbors and friends.

FIRE will be amazing, but it won't offer me anything better than the list of things I already have today.  THESE ARE THE GOOD OLD DAYS!!!

This is an excellent point. I wouldn't want to tempt fate by saying that the plan is bulletproof, but with that bullet point list, you're already winning.

It's great to aim for FIRE, but don't forget to take a step back and get some perspective on the here and now every once in a while. Especially when FIRE is a few years out yet, which it kinda is for those of us in this cohort...!

beer-man

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #375 on: September 16, 2018, 12:49:00 PM »
Yeah, I can relate to a lot of what you are all saying.  Recently though it's started sinking in that even though I'm not close to FIRE yet, I've essentially won the game already.  The plan is basically bulletproof, I just have to work out the clock. 

Between now and then there's plenty to enjoy...

  • I get to enjoy the funnest years with my children(they are 6 and 3 currently)
  • My wife is as young and beautiful as she'll ever be...although she weirdly seems to get more beautiful with each year, so who knows:)
  • Me and my whole family are in relative good health
  • Great neighbors and friends.

FIRE will be amazing, but it won't offer me anything better than the list of things I already have today.  THESE ARE THE GOOD OLD DAYS!!!
Wow yes this is a good reminder for me too! These are the days we’ll look back on and reminisce someday.


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x02947

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #376 on: September 25, 2018, 12:40:19 PM »
Realized that DW and I have enough in savings that if we don't add a single dollar more and assume a 7% return till we are 65, we will have 30x our estimated annual spending, without SS or pension.  So "regular retirement" is set. Roughly speaking, every day I work now subtracts a week from "regular retirement" in my head.  For me this is a much nicer way of thinking about it- rather than adding to the stash till FIRE, I've got the regular retirement in hand already and am just subtracting days I have to work.

FireHiker

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #377 on: September 25, 2018, 05:06:43 PM »
Realized that DW and I have enough in savings that if we don't add a single dollar more and assume a 7% return till we are 65, we will have 30x our estimated annual spending, without SS or pension.  So "regular retirement" is set. Roughly speaking, every day I work now subtracts a week from "regular retirement" in my head.  For me this is a much nicer way of thinking about it- rather than adding to the stash till FIRE, I've got the regular retirement in hand already and am just subtracting days I have to work.

That's a great way to look at it!

For my DH and I, we have our basic needs met if we retire now and move to a LCOL area. I look at it as now we're working for the fun stuff: the travel, the house we want in our desired destination, etc. It's a huge weight off to know that we won't be homeless or starve except in a complete societal meltdown. I still find that the day to day goes SO slowly, but when I look at my NW spreadsheet from 2015 to now I can see that we're making fabulous progress. We're still really hoping to RE closer to 2025 as opposed to 2030, but if we stay put in our current house it will likely be 2030.

MrOnyx

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #378 on: September 26, 2018, 02:06:11 AM »
...
Roughly speaking, every day I work now subtracts a week from "regular retirement" in my head.
...

Brilliant! Wouldn't it be cool if there was a calculator out there that we could use to figure out how many days of FIRE-freedom we're buying with every work day? I'm guessing it could be calculated by taking one's savings rate and expenses to figure out how long they'll take to become FI under average/poor scenarios, then getting the difference between their age then, and the traditional age of retirement in their region, and finally dividing the number by how many work days they have left?

It'd serve as little more than a roughly-estimated motivator, but it'd still be quite neat I think.

I'm nowhere near clever enough to put it together myself, sadly.

rebel_quietude

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #379 on: September 26, 2018, 04:56:55 AM »
This is the closest I've found, from CCCA:

http://engaging-data.com/freedom-calculator/#calendarupdate

If you know how much you save per work day, you can figure out exactly that!

MrOnyx

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #380 on: September 26, 2018, 06:46:51 AM »
This is the closest I've found, from CCCA:

http://engaging-data.com/freedom-calculator/#calendarupdate

If you know how much you save per work day, you can figure out exactly that!

That's pretty cool. I think it kind of works like I was thinking, but not quite! Obviously that calculator takes your current savings and assumes you won't continue to add to them for the remaining years, and effectively gives you a percentage of FI-completion. I'm not sure it properly calculates compounding and regular saving - rather a 'stone drop' take from your current position.

Still, it's pretty neat nonetheless! Thanks!

dsw

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #381 on: September 26, 2018, 07:21:57 AM »
This is the closest I've found, from CCCA:

http://engaging-data.com/freedom-calculator/#calendarupdate

If you know how much you save per work day, you can figure out exactly that!

Oh, that's really cool. This may be my new favorite way to track progress. Thanks!

x02947

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #382 on: September 26, 2018, 07:56:03 AM »

Brilliant! Wouldn't it be cool if there was a calculator out there that we could use to figure out how many days of FIRE-freedom we're buying with every work day? I'm guessing it could be calculated by taking one's savings rate and expenses to figure out how long they'll take to become FI under average/poor scenarios, then getting the difference between their age then, and the traditional age of retirement in their region, and finally dividing the number by how many work days they have left?
...

I took a bit of a brute force method using online compound interest calculators.  First, I took my current savings and, assuming no more input, played with the # of compounding years (I did 7% return) till I hit 25x estimated FIRE expenses.  Then I reset the calculator and used my daily savings amount (I did annual savings divided by 260; 5 working days times 52 working weeks.  This includes vacation/sick time as I am still tied to the job, but excludes weekends) as the principle and saw how much it would be in X years that I just calculated.  Divide that number by your daily FIRE expense, and presto! There's a good amount of fudge in there, but it only takes about 5 minutes.  I'm sure the A=Pert equation can be modified to a time scale of days instead of years, but my coffee hasn't kicked in yet.

This is the closest I've found, from CCCA:

http://engaging-data.com/freedom-calculator/#calendarupdate

If you know how much you save per work day, you can figure out exactly that!

I like this site- it gives yet another viewpoint.  But am I missing something? This tells me how much freedom I have each year (obviously the goal is to get 365 days of freedom each year).   It takes your current savings, multiplied by your SWR, and divides that by your daily FIRE expenses to see how many days your stash can sustain. I want it to say "You can currently FIRE on September 26, 2035.  If you invest $X today, you can FIRE on September 22, 2035".   

MrOnyx

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #383 on: September 26, 2018, 08:39:13 AM »
I like this site- it gives yet another viewpoint.  But am I missing something? This tells me how much freedom I have each year (obviously the goal is to get 365 days of freedom each year).   It takes your current savings, multiplied by your SWR, and divides that by your daily FIRE expenses to see how many days your stash can sustain. I want it to say "You can currently FIRE on September 26, 2035.  If you invest $X today, you can FIRE on September 22, 2035".   

It basically tells you how long you can survive for, per year, using your current accumulated savings. Yeah, the goal is to get it to go past December 31st.

So if you quit your job on the 1st of January, that's how long you'd last if you pulled 4% (or whatever you entered as your SWR) and spent not a penny more until next year. Unless you make it to the next year, you've got quite a gap to fill!

Guava

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #384 on: September 27, 2018, 10:30:48 AM »
I said we would never be those people but it happened. We had to upgrade a vehicle for the baby. I tried and tried but there was just no way to get the carseat in my tiny 2 door car. But I do love my new to me vehicle, even if I thought I would never own a crossover.

Amount of FIRE savings diverted for new vehicle: 0.33 years.
Ability to provide a method of travel for my child: invaluable.

Aside from the new car purchase, DH and I have hustled and funded every other baby-required purchase through side hustle cash, selling things, or gift cards from various sources. I know we won't keep it up forever, but it has been fun so far to see how many expenses we can offset.

Eco_eco

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #385 on: September 28, 2018, 11:59:07 AM »
2030 for us is looking to be the year of fatFIRE. Assuming we make it and don't leanFIRE in the meantime I'll be 54 and looking to downshift, from standard paid employment to part time contracting or just managing a small business. We are likely to live in the southern hemisphere for six - nine months and the northern hemisphere for rest of the year.

blazinblasian

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #386 on: September 28, 2018, 09:16:13 PM »
Hey all,

Nice to meet you. I am very new to the FIRE concept, but am all in. I used the Mad FIentist (https://www.madfientist.com/financial-independence-spreadsheet/) calculator that somebody recommended waaaaaaaaay back on page 2 or 3 of the thread, and gave it a try. My numbers probably aren't accurate as I only have data for one month, but from the calculations I have a FIRE date 10 years from now, if I continue to live in Australia.

My Australian numbers are about 5x my annual spending mostly in savings (would like to buy an investment property) and ETFs

The timeline will vary depending on where I source my income. I am a US expat, so happy to meet people in the same boat!

This will be one crazy path to freedom!

shinn497

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #387 on: September 30, 2018, 06:11:47 PM »


So I believ eI am in this cohort? In 2030, I will be 42. Based on my calculations, I could have up to 700k By this time, and an inflation adjusted safe withdrawal rate of between 1.4 - 1.6 k per month. I def think that is livable, esp as it does not model social security, TLH, and some other things.

By this time I would also be in a position of continuing saving and just being a millionaire as well.

Regardless, I'll stick with you guys since it is a date that provides a good metric to shoot for but it is still far enough in the future to give some leeway.

With that said, I am currently only worth 8k, so there is a lot of work to be done!
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 06:14:43 PM by shinn497 »

Nate R

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #388 on: September 30, 2018, 07:04:23 PM »
Welcome, Shinn! Good to see you're getting things on the right track! A decent income to keep that moving in the right direction, too.

shinn497

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #389 on: September 30, 2018, 10:39:37 PM »
Welcome, Shinn! Good to see you're getting things on the right track! A decent income to keep that moving in the right direction, too.

Yeah. I am also working really really hard to expand my skills so i can earn more in the future!

blazinblasian

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #390 on: October 01, 2018, 02:51:35 AM »
We are likely to live in the southern hemisphere for six - nine months and the northern hemisphere for rest of the year.

That's pretty nice. Snow-birding? Moving countries can be a pain, but that doesn't sound so bad. I'd like that kind of life, or just staying in the tropics perpetually.

Steeze

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #391 on: October 01, 2018, 03:09:06 AM »
We are hoping to do something like that as well - 6 months in Hainan, China, 6 months in Colorado. Catch the end of mountain biking / camping season, hit ski season, then paddling season then head out to Hainan to rest on the beach, visit family, and travel for a few months. 10-12 more years ... seems like forever. Only at 9% of our FI number at this point.

blazinblasian

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #392 on: October 03, 2018, 09:18:57 PM »
We are hoping to do something like that as well - 6 months in Hainan, China, 6 months in Colorado. Catch the end of mountain biking / camping season, hit ski season, then paddling season then head out to Hainan to rest on the beach, visit family, and travel for a few months. 10-12 more years ... seems like forever. Only at 9% of our FI number at this point.

Hey Steeze,

Did you listen to the MadFientist episode where the MadFientist introduces the concept of Peak Arbitrage. He was talking about buying a place in both locations, renting out the places during peak season, and living in both places during their respective shoulder seasons to get the best of both worlds. I agreee. 10-12 years seems extremely long especially as I am just starting out. I don't even have any invested income especially since I found out that I am invested in ETF's that are considered passive foreign income and will be taxed very heavily when I purge them from my portfolio (PFICs, what a pain in an expat's backside!!)

haypug16

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #393 on: October 04, 2018, 08:17:18 AM »
10-12 years seems extremely long especially as I am just starting out.

Same here. Seems like forever and so much can happen between now and 2030! I have just really started with this whole FIRE concept, roughly a year and a half. The encouraging thing is that in that short amount of time I have already seen how much I can save and it's becoming more and more believable that I can achieve FIRE with what now doesn't feel like all that much effort. Things are pretty much running on autopilot and as long as I continue tracking my spending and realigning myself when needed (Uber Frugal Months are very helpful for this) then things should continue to run relatively smoothly *knock on wood*

Re: Peak Arbitrage, part my 12 year plan is purchasing a couple vacation homes to rent out. We plan on remaining in NE at our current home but would like to buy homes in some of our favorite travel destinations with the idea that we'll rent them out most of the time when we're not there. First location is NH some place that would be good for year round renting; Hiking, Skiing, Beaches, etc. This probably isn't going to happen for at least 3 years though maybe 5.

jtray

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #394 on: October 06, 2018, 06:58:03 PM »
How is everyone doing? What are you doing to stay motivated?

aceyou

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #395 on: October 06, 2018, 08:09:28 PM »
How is everyone doing? What are you doing to stay motivated?

Doing well. 

To stay motivated I usually try to find a fun new little project to remind me that fun doesn't cost much.

- plan a little local excursion with the kiddos.  They are 6 and 3, so pretty much anything outside in nature will get them amped.
- learn to cook something new.  Last week I made a Panang Curry (thai) that I believe could make it onto any restaurant menu!
- go for a bike ride.
- plan a fun night with my wife (my neighbors often take turns watching each others kids for a few hours, so free babysitting for both of us.)


wbarnett

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #396 on: October 08, 2018, 09:07:58 PM »
- learn to cook something new.  Last week I made a Panang Curry (thai) that I believe could make it onto any restaurant menu!

Random question - did you make the curry paste yourself? I have been making panang curry a lot recently with store-bought paste, and haven't mustered up the courage to try making it from scratch. If you have a good recipe, I'd love to know...

aceyou

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #397 on: October 09, 2018, 06:21:56 PM »
- learn to cook something new.  Last week I made a Panang Curry (thai) that I believe could make it onto any restaurant menu!

Random question - did you make the curry paste yourself? I have been making panang curry a lot recently with store-bought paste, and haven't mustered up the courage to try making it from scratch. If you have a good recipe, I'd love to know...



Good question.  I have an acquaintance who works as a cook at a thai place.  Even at the restaurant they use a store bought paste, and that's most common for thai people too from what he says.  I'm lucky to have a few asian markets near me, but worst case scenario you could amazon it, right:)

The one the grocer at the asian restaurant recommended for the particular dish I wanted to make was a Maesri brand curry paste, came in a fourteen ounce jar.

Also, a really dumb mistake I made initially was using coconut milk from a half gallon jug...like the kind you would by to drink.  You want to buy the coconut milk in a can.  I bought 13.5 ounce cans of Chef's Choice coconut milk.  It was a blue can.  And when you put it in, don't shake the can first.  The top part of the can will be much thicker and you want to use that part first. 

What I did was...

1.  heat up 3 tablespoons of oil
2.  Mix in a little under a quarter cup of paste and stir the oil in with it for a couple minutes
3.  Pour in about the top quarter of the coconut milk and stirred for a few minutes.
4.  Added a pound of cut up uncooked chicken (you could use any protein or go without)
5.  Added sliced bell peppers and onions (you could choose lots of other types of veggies)
6.  Added a teaspoon of salt
7.  Gradually add more and more coconut milk till it's all stirred in.
8.  Add a tablespoon of sugar
9.  When it the chicken was obviously cooked and it was ready to serve I took it off the burner and added some fresh basil from my garden. 
10.  I served it over rice and it was awesome!!!

Good luck! 
« Last Edit: October 09, 2018, 07:01:47 PM by aceyou »

Saskatchewstachian

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #398 on: October 10, 2018, 08:33:16 AM »
How is everyone doing? What are you doing to stay motivated?
- learn to cook something new.  Last week I made a Panang Curry (thai) that I believe could make it onto any restaurant menu!

I haven't posted an update here in quite some time but doing very well. NW wise the "stash" continues to grow better than expected.

As for the above item I had to comment to reply.

My neighbours from my hometown recently had a few good weekends of goose hunting. I asked if I could get a couple goose breasts as I had never tried them and they sent me home with 15lbs of it!! I have only attempted one cook so far and it turned out fantastic, pulled the inspiration from similar duck recipes. Quite simple although time consuming.

1. Brine the goose breast in 6% salt brine and liquid smoke for 6hrs.
2. Sous vide @ 145F for 2hrs to medium (could also grill)
3. Sear and serve with a tart wild blueberry sauce

Served with roasted balsamic brussle sprouts and eggplant.

Overall the cost of the meal came out to probably $1-$2/person due to the vegetables as the blueberries were wild picked and the goose was free so frugal and delicious.

jtray

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Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #399 on: October 13, 2018, 09:58:42 PM »
How is everyone doing? What are you doing to stay motivated?
- learn to cook something new.  Last week I made a Panang Curry (thai) that I believe could make it onto any restaurant menu!

I haven't posted an update here in quite some time but doing very well. NW wise the "stash" continues to grow better than expected.

As for the above item I had to comment to reply.

My neighbours from my hometown recently had a few good weekends of goose hunting. I asked if I could get a couple goose breasts as I had never tried them and they sent me home with 15lbs of it!! I have only attempted one cook so far and it turned out fantastic, pulled the inspiration from similar duck recipes. Quite simple although time consuming.

1. Brine the goose breast in 6% salt brine and liquid smoke for 6hrs.
2. Sous vide @ 145F for 2hrs to medium (could also grill)
3. Sear and serve with a tart wild blueberry sauce

Served with roasted balsamic brussle sprouts and eggplant.

Overall the cost of the meal came out to probably $1-$2/person due to the vegetables as the blueberries were wild picked and the goose was free so frugal and delicious.

That sounds amazing!