Author Topic: 2030 FIRE Cohort  (Read 73494 times)

dsw

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 23
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #400 on: September 26, 2018, 07:21:57 AM »
This is the closest I've found, from CCCA:

http://engaging-data.com/freedom-calculator/#calendarupdate

If you know how much you save per work day, you can figure out exactly that!

Oh, that's really cool. This may be my new favorite way to track progress. Thanks!

x02947

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 40
  • Location: The South
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #401 on: September 26, 2018, 07:56:03 AM »

Brilliant! Wouldn't it be cool if there was a calculator out there that we could use to figure out how many days of FIRE-freedom we're buying with every work day? I'm guessing it could be calculated by taking one's savings rate and expenses to figure out how long they'll take to become FI under average/poor scenarios, then getting the difference between their age then, and the traditional age of retirement in their region, and finally dividing the number by how many work days they have left?
...

I took a bit of a brute force method using online compound interest calculators.  First, I took my current savings and, assuming no more input, played with the # of compounding years (I did 7% return) till I hit 25x estimated FIRE expenses.  Then I reset the calculator and used my daily savings amount (I did annual savings divided by 260; 5 working days times 52 working weeks.  This includes vacation/sick time as I am still tied to the job, but excludes weekends) as the principle and saw how much it would be in X years that I just calculated.  Divide that number by your daily FIRE expense, and presto! There's a good amount of fudge in there, but it only takes about 5 minutes.  I'm sure the A=Pert equation can be modified to a time scale of days instead of years, but my coffee hasn't kicked in yet.

This is the closest I've found, from CCCA:

http://engaging-data.com/freedom-calculator/#calendarupdate

If you know how much you save per work day, you can figure out exactly that!

I like this site- it gives yet another viewpoint.  But am I missing something? This tells me how much freedom I have each year (obviously the goal is to get 365 days of freedom each year).   It takes your current savings, multiplied by your SWR, and divides that by your daily FIRE expenses to see how many days your stash can sustain. I want it to say "You can currently FIRE on September 26, 2035.  If you invest $X today, you can FIRE on September 22, 2035".   

MrOnyx

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 459
  • Location: East Anglia, UK
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #402 on: September 26, 2018, 08:39:13 AM »
I like this site- it gives yet another viewpoint.  But am I missing something? This tells me how much freedom I have each year (obviously the goal is to get 365 days of freedom each year).   It takes your current savings, multiplied by your SWR, and divides that by your daily FIRE expenses to see how many days your stash can sustain. I want it to say "You can currently FIRE on September 26, 2035.  If you invest $X today, you can FIRE on September 22, 2035".   

It basically tells you how long you can survive for, per year, using your current accumulated savings. Yeah, the goal is to get it to go past December 31st.

So if you quit your job on the 1st of January, that's how long you'd last if you pulled 4% (or whatever you entered as your SWR) and spent not a penny more until next year. Unless you make it to the next year, you've got quite a gap to fill!

Guava

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 213
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #403 on: September 27, 2018, 10:30:48 AM »
I said we would never be those people but it happened. We had to upgrade a vehicle for the baby. I tried and tried but there was just no way to get the carseat in my tiny 2 door car. But I do love my new to me vehicle, even if I thought I would never own a crossover.

Amount of FIRE savings diverted for new vehicle: 0.33 years.
Ability to provide a method of travel for my child: invaluable.

Aside from the new car purchase, DH and I have hustled and funded every other baby-required purchase through side hustle cash, selling things, or gift cards from various sources. I know we won't keep it up forever, but it has been fun so far to see how many expenses we can offset.

Eco_eco

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 21
  • Location: Wellington, New Zealand
    • Nineteen-Six.com
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #404 on: September 28, 2018, 11:59:07 AM »
2030 for us is looking to be the year of fatFIRE. Assuming we make it and don't leanFIRE in the meantime I'll be 54 and looking to downshift, from standard paid employment to part time contracting or just managing a small business. We are likely to live in the southern hemisphere for six - nine months and the northern hemisphere for rest of the year.

blazinblasian

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 17
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #405 on: September 28, 2018, 09:16:13 PM »
Hey all,

Nice to meet you. I am very new to the FIRE concept, but am all in. I used the Mad FIentist (https://www.madfientist.com/financial-independence-spreadsheet/) calculator that somebody recommended waaaaaaaaay back on page 2 or 3 of the thread, and gave it a try. My numbers probably aren't accurate as I only have data for one month, but from the calculations I have a FIRE date 10 years from now, if I continue to live in Australia.

My Australian numbers are about 5x my annual spending mostly in savings (would like to buy an investment property) and ETFs

The timeline will vary depending on where I source my income. I am a US expat, so happy to meet people in the same boat!

This will be one crazy path to freedom!

shinn497

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 263
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #406 on: September 30, 2018, 06:11:47 PM »


So I believ eI am in this cohort? In 2030, I will be 42. Based on my calculations, I could have up to 700k By this time, and an inflation adjusted safe withdrawal rate of between 1.4 - 1.6 k per month. I def think that is livable, esp as it does not model social security, TLH, and some other things.

By this time I would also be in a position of continuing saving and just being a millionaire as well.

Regardless, I'll stick with you guys since it is a date that provides a good metric to shoot for but it is still far enough in the future to give some leeway.

With that said, I am currently only worth 8k, so there is a lot of work to be done!
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 06:14:43 PM by shinn497 »

Nate R

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 337
  • Age: 33
  • Location: Milwaukee, WI (Bay View)
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #407 on: September 30, 2018, 07:04:23 PM »
Welcome, Shinn! Good to see you're getting things on the right track! A decent income to keep that moving in the right direction, too.

shinn497

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 263
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #408 on: September 30, 2018, 10:39:37 PM »
Welcome, Shinn! Good to see you're getting things on the right track! A decent income to keep that moving in the right direction, too.

Yeah. I am also working really really hard to expand my skills so i can earn more in the future!

blazinblasian

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 17
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #409 on: October 01, 2018, 02:51:35 AM »
We are likely to live in the southern hemisphere for six - nine months and the northern hemisphere for rest of the year.

That's pretty nice. Snow-birding? Moving countries can be a pain, but that doesn't sound so bad. I'd like that kind of life, or just staying in the tropics perpetually.

Steeze

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 216
  • Age: 31
  • Location: NYC Area of Earth
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #410 on: October 01, 2018, 03:09:06 AM »
We are hoping to do something like that as well - 6 months in Hainan, China, 6 months in Colorado. Catch the end of mountain biking / camping season, hit ski season, then paddling season then head out to Hainan to rest on the beach, visit family, and travel for a few months. 10-12 more years ... seems like forever. Only at 9% of our FI number at this point.

blazinblasian

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 17
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #411 on: October 03, 2018, 09:18:57 PM »
We are hoping to do something like that as well - 6 months in Hainan, China, 6 months in Colorado. Catch the end of mountain biking / camping season, hit ski season, then paddling season then head out to Hainan to rest on the beach, visit family, and travel for a few months. 10-12 more years ... seems like forever. Only at 9% of our FI number at this point.

Hey Steeze,

Did you listen to the MadFientist episode where the MadFientist introduces the concept of Peak Arbitrage. He was talking about buying a place in both locations, renting out the places during peak season, and living in both places during their respective shoulder seasons to get the best of both worlds. I agreee. 10-12 years seems extremely long especially as I am just starting out. I don't even have any invested income especially since I found out that I am invested in ETF's that are considered passive foreign income and will be taxed very heavily when I purge them from my portfolio (PFICs, what a pain in an expat's backside!!)

haypug16

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 946
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Boston, MA
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #412 on: October 04, 2018, 08:17:18 AM »
10-12 years seems extremely long especially as I am just starting out.

Same here. Seems like forever and so much can happen between now and 2030! I have just really started with this whole FIRE concept, roughly a year and a half. The encouraging thing is that in that short amount of time I have already seen how much I can save and it's becoming more and more believable that I can achieve FIRE with what now doesn't feel like all that much effort. Things are pretty much running on autopilot and as long as I continue tracking my spending and realigning myself when needed (Uber Frugal Months are very helpful for this) then things should continue to run relatively smoothly *knock on wood*

Re: Peak Arbitrage, part my 12 year plan is purchasing a couple vacation homes to rent out. We plan on remaining in NE at our current home but would like to buy homes in some of our favorite travel destinations with the idea that we'll rent them out most of the time when we're not there. First location is NH some place that would be good for year round renting; Hiking, Skiing, Beaches, etc. This probably isn't going to happen for at least 3 years though maybe 5.

jtray

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 20
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #413 on: October 06, 2018, 06:58:03 PM »
How is everyone doing? What are you doing to stay motivated?

aceyou

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1533
  • Age: 35
    • Life is Good - Aceyou's Journal
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #414 on: October 06, 2018, 08:09:28 PM »
How is everyone doing? What are you doing to stay motivated?

Doing well. 

To stay motivated I usually try to find a fun new little project to remind me that fun doesn't cost much.

- plan a little local excursion with the kiddos.  They are 6 and 3, so pretty much anything outside in nature will get them amped.
- learn to cook something new.  Last week I made a Panang Curry (thai) that I believe could make it onto any restaurant menu!
- go for a bike ride.
- plan a fun night with my wife (my neighbors often take turns watching each others kids for a few hours, so free babysitting for both of us.)


wbarnett

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 32
  • Location: Denver, CO, USA
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #415 on: October 08, 2018, 09:07:58 PM »
- learn to cook something new.  Last week I made a Panang Curry (thai) that I believe could make it onto any restaurant menu!

Random question - did you make the curry paste yourself? I have been making panang curry a lot recently with store-bought paste, and haven't mustered up the courage to try making it from scratch. If you have a good recipe, I'd love to know...

aceyou

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1533
  • Age: 35
    • Life is Good - Aceyou's Journal
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #416 on: October 09, 2018, 06:21:56 PM »
- learn to cook something new.  Last week I made a Panang Curry (thai) that I believe could make it onto any restaurant menu!

Random question - did you make the curry paste yourself? I have been making panang curry a lot recently with store-bought paste, and haven't mustered up the courage to try making it from scratch. If you have a good recipe, I'd love to know...



Good question.  I have an acquaintance who works as a cook at a thai place.  Even at the restaurant they use a store bought paste, and that's most common for thai people too from what he says.  I'm lucky to have a few asian markets near me, but worst case scenario you could amazon it, right:)

The one the grocer at the asian restaurant recommended for the particular dish I wanted to make was a Maesri brand curry paste, came in a fourteen ounce jar.

Also, a really dumb mistake I made initially was using coconut milk from a half gallon jug...like the kind you would by to drink.  You want to buy the coconut milk in a can.  I bought 13.5 ounce cans of Chef's Choice coconut milk.  It was a blue can.  And when you put it in, don't shake the can first.  The top part of the can will be much thicker and you want to use that part first. 

What I did was...

1.  heat up 3 tablespoons of oil
2.  Mix in a little under a quarter cup of paste and stir the oil in with it for a couple minutes
3.  Pour in about the top quarter of the coconut milk and stirred for a few minutes.
4.  Added a pound of cut up uncooked chicken (you could use any protein or go without)
5.  Added sliced bell peppers and onions (you could choose lots of other types of veggies)
6.  Added a teaspoon of salt
7.  Gradually add more and more coconut milk till it's all stirred in.
8.  Add a tablespoon of sugar
9.  When it the chicken was obviously cooked and it was ready to serve I took it off the burner and added some fresh basil from my garden. 
10.  I served it over rice and it was awesome!!!

Good luck! 
« Last Edit: October 09, 2018, 07:01:47 PM by aceyou »

Saskatchewstachian

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 185
  • Age: 28
  • Location: SK
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #417 on: October 10, 2018, 08:33:16 AM »
How is everyone doing? What are you doing to stay motivated?
- learn to cook something new.  Last week I made a Panang Curry (thai) that I believe could make it onto any restaurant menu!

I haven't posted an update here in quite some time but doing very well. NW wise the "stash" continues to grow better than expected.

As for the above item I had to comment to reply.

My neighbours from my hometown recently had a few good weekends of goose hunting. I asked if I could get a couple goose breasts as I had never tried them and they sent me home with 15lbs of it!! I have only attempted one cook so far and it turned out fantastic, pulled the inspiration from similar duck recipes. Quite simple although time consuming.

1. Brine the goose breast in 6% salt brine and liquid smoke for 6hrs.
2. Sous vide @ 145F for 2hrs to medium (could also grill)
3. Sear and serve with a tart wild blueberry sauce

Served with roasted balsamic brussle sprouts and eggplant.

Overall the cost of the meal came out to probably $1-$2/person due to the vegetables as the blueberries were wild picked and the goose was free so frugal and delicious.

jtray

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 20
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #418 on: October 13, 2018, 09:58:42 PM »
How is everyone doing? What are you doing to stay motivated?
- learn to cook something new.  Last week I made a Panang Curry (thai) that I believe could make it onto any restaurant menu!

I haven't posted an update here in quite some time but doing very well. NW wise the "stash" continues to grow better than expected.

As for the above item I had to comment to reply.

My neighbours from my hometown recently had a few good weekends of goose hunting. I asked if I could get a couple goose breasts as I had never tried them and they sent me home with 15lbs of it!! I have only attempted one cook so far and it turned out fantastic, pulled the inspiration from similar duck recipes. Quite simple although time consuming.

1. Brine the goose breast in 6% salt brine and liquid smoke for 6hrs.
2. Sous vide @ 145F for 2hrs to medium (could also grill)
3. Sear and serve with a tart wild blueberry sauce

Served with roasted balsamic brussle sprouts and eggplant.

Overall the cost of the meal came out to probably $1-$2/person due to the vegetables as the blueberries were wild picked and the goose was free so frugal and delicious.

That sounds amazing!

BeautifulDay

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 301
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #419 on: October 14, 2018, 08:36:59 PM »
@aceyou thanks for the recipe. Would love to try some new Thai recipes and I love Panang.

Aggie1994

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 14
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #420 on: October 31, 2018, 04:23:18 PM »
Hi I am jumping into this group and currently have about $120k NW and hoping to ramp up my savings come next summer. I just paid off $100k in debt due to selling my condo and will rent for a while. I anticipate my expenses dropping by quite a bit due to my 19yo daughter just finishing school and has landed her first job as a vet assistant and I won't be funding her expenses after November like we agreed upon while she was in school and she will be paying rent.

I am 46 and have been at my company almost 15 years and will either ride it out for 12 more and just pile onto my 401k while also having a small 5% of my NW in peer to peer lending or switch to a passion career in 5-7 years which might slow my fire but I will make sure I have 1 year of expenses before I do saved.

Mgmny

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 543
  • Age: 28
  • Location: Northwest 'Burbs of MSP
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #421 on: November 01, 2018, 10:54:07 AM »
joining!

I could be anywhere between 2028 and 2033. Of course, if things drastically change, who knows!

NW is $305k-ish right now. I'm 28 years old, and my wife is 24 and we are having our first child in the next month or so.

Lean fire is 1.2MM and fat fire is 1.6MM and beyond.

Torios

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 5
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #422 on: November 14, 2018, 08:32:55 PM »
How is everyone doing? What are you doing to stay motivated?

For those of you who listen to ChooseFI, I'm trying my first annual Budget Party with my extremely frugal but somehow FIRE and spreadsheet indifferent spouse.

MrOnyx

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 459
  • Location: East Anglia, UK
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #423 on: November 15, 2018, 05:24:30 AM »
How is everyone doing? What are you doing to stay motivated?

For those of you who listen to ChooseFI, I'm trying my first annual Budget Party with my extremely frugal but somehow FIRE and spreadsheet indifferent spouse.

I mean that's the main thing, right? As long as they aren't spending the money, that won't hinder your FIRE goals!

Torios

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 5
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #424 on: November 18, 2018, 03:18:49 PM »
How is everyone doing? What are you doing to stay motivated?

For those of you who listen to ChooseFI, I'm trying my first annual Budget Party with my extremely frugal but somehow FIRE and spreadsheet indifferent spouse.

I mean that's the main thing, right? As long as they aren't spending the money, that won't hinder your FIRE goals!

For sure, having a spouse onboard helps so much ... I'm not surprised when almost every one of these bloggers/podcasters mention that having a frugal spouse is a necessary but not sufficient condition to FIRE. I'm the FIRE nerd, and she's the one that encouraging me to spend less. Super lucky.

DebtFreeinPhilly

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 156
  • Location: Philadelphia
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #425 on: November 19, 2018, 07:40:53 AM »
How is everyone doing? What are you doing to stay motivated?

We are focused on automatic savings at the moment. We discuss where we want our money to go (i.e. down payment on a house, 40th birthday trip in two years, etc.) and plan accordingly with the auto-savings. Every paycheck a certain amount of money gets direct deposited into the savings. When we hit our dollar amount goal, we move that to our spending account if we still want to spend it. With this method we have saved over $10,000 in cash, paid for $2,000 in car expenses with cash, and still contributed over $18,000 to our 401k/HSA/Roth IRA accounts.

Our 2019 Goal is to max out my 401k account ($19,000), add to the HSA account ($5,200), max spouse's Roth IRA ($5,500), increase spouse's 401k contribution ($8,500) and save an additional $12,000 in cash.

Steeze

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 216
  • Age: 31
  • Location: NYC Area of Earth
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #426 on: November 20, 2018, 08:11:26 PM »
DW just got a new fancy job and a 30% raise along with it!! Meanwhile the in laws are helping us buy a place which will lower our housing costs by 30%. 2030 is looking pretty easy from here! Might even be able to afford to have a kid soon! Hah! Couldn't figure out where to get 2k/mo child care money and stay on track for 2030. Had decided kids weren't in the cards. Just when you think it's not possible, doors open, opportunity calls, and gifts are received. Feel like I won the lottery right now!

x02947

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 40
  • Location: The South
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #427 on: November 21, 2018, 01:14:56 PM »
Nice, Steeze!  The good thing about planning conservatively is that when good things happen, you can actually enjoy them rather than feeling relieved because you *needed* that stroke of luck.

How is everyone doing? What are you doing to stay motivated?

I took a blacksmithing class a few weekends ago with my FIL.  Great fun!  It was a nice reminder of all the hobbies I want to take up, but don't have time to now. 

jtray

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 20
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #428 on: November 22, 2018, 11:59:24 AM »
Nice, Steeze!  The good thing about planning conservatively is that when good things happen, you can actually enjoy them rather than feeling relieved because you *needed* that stroke of luck.

How is everyone doing? What are you doing to stay motivated?

I took a blacksmithing class a few weekends ago with my FIL.  Great fun!  It was a nice reminder of all the hobbies I want to take up, but don't have time to now.

Blacksmithing?!? How cool! I am in the middle a photography class! Everyone needs fun & hobbies!

FIreDrill

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 989
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #429 on: November 22, 2018, 02:18:44 PM »
I think this is the thread for me!

I was originally looking at a much earlier FI date but we recently relocated to a high cost of living area and are working on getting our income back to where we can save 50%+.  Adding 8 years to our target date is kinda a bummer but this is a much more realistic estimate and will result in what I consider FAT FIRE and much more flexibility.  There is a chance that we accelerate this timeline drastically but for now, 2030 is the approximate date.

twistedfirestarter

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 65
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #430 on: November 23, 2018, 04:36:08 AM »
Am super excited but not quite sure how I’m going to share this with friends in real life * but I’ve just signed a new contract to reduce my hours from full time to 4 days a week. Boss was supportive but HR were rather confused as it is unheard of for people without children.

This is something I couldn’t have considered before finding out about FIRE and started budgeting etc... The most surprising bit is that if I reduce my pension payments (from 45% to 35%) I’ll be taking home a similar amount and it will have little effect to the FI date as balance between pension (can’t access until ~60yr) and post tax savings wasn’t optimised.

*fear of being judged or deemed to be gloating, I know, shouldn’t care but they (wild generalisation) are busy becoming managers and moving up in the world and I’m busy looking for a way to get out.

Sur del Sur

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 2
  • Location: LATAM
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #431 on: November 27, 2018, 07:04:00 AM »
Hi there!
I am joining this cohort. Turning 38 in a few weeks (wow it feels weird to write that!), so 50 years old works reasonably well to start closing the corporate stage of my career. Single with no kids, but that will surely change in a few years (the single part probably next year and the childless part hopefully a year or so afterwards).
Big unknowns and concerns are education (here in South America it is almost imperative to get private schooling in order to set up your kids for success, and according to the plan I will be considerably older than the average father, and probably past my earning prime) as well as how the marriage will work out, since my girlfriend is a prudent spender (our only real splurge is traveling and food, and even in those things we almost donīt do any stupid things), but is not as focused, at least for now, on financial independence as I am. Also, she will probably want to be a stay at home mom, and I am not that sure about that, since I would like for her to at least to be self-funded. I am trying to work on this conversation now, but it is not always easy as she feels attacked sometimes (it is true that I can be too blunt sometimes), and she can be stubborn so you have to be subtle with your messaging.

Starting point:
100K USD on a rental property (itīs in another country and delivers ~3,5%, so might sell in the future and dump that on an index fund)
160K USD in taxable investments (almost 50/50 between peer lending and Total Market Index ETF at Schwab)
20K USD in retirement account (invested in Rusell 3000 ETF)
~200 K USD in home equity (really nice home in one of the best neighborhoods here) – I rented it out and downsized, wanted to leverage the lending capacity while my job allowed and keep it as an option to eventually move back in with my family if everything works out according to plan.

Endgame to consider myself FI: 25-30x yearly expenses covered (would be 1.5 – 2.0 MM USD as of 2018, thinking about 70% total market index fund and 30% local real estate) and a paid house (~600K USD to go on the mortgage, or 24 years @4%).
Right now I have a great job (very comfortable with my company, boss, team, peers, and CEO) that pays really well for South America, so saving on average 8-9 K USD/month.

Medium and long term, with family associated expenses, the plan is to contribute 70-80K USD/year till 2030. Assuming a 4% real returns rate (after inflation, which sounds kind of high to me for the at least medium term considering the Schiller PE multiples for the market right now), we should be ~20x yearly expenses (60-70 K USD/year) by then… When I reach that point I will probably shift down a little bit, and try to work enough to cover expenses so that returns on accumulated savings get us to the 25-30x year of expenses that would me make feel comfortable with more radical changes. By that time also kids would be almost out of high school with only college to go (aiming for two kids, college here is much cheaper than in the US).
Ultimately, I like the idea of an inflation protected portfolio that covers the expenses for me and my wife while we are alive just on the appreciation, and leaving each of my two sons/ daughters “half the road” complete when we kick the bucket.

It feels great to have an outlet to share these plans, there is really almost no other place to talk about this without being looked at as crazy and/or a control freak!

Good luck yīall!!
« Last Edit: November 27, 2018, 07:08:38 AM by Sur del Sur »

blazinblasian

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 17
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #432 on: December 16, 2018, 01:03:35 AM »
Hi! We look set to FIRE around 2030, but it's dependant on so many things that it could well be later.

Our ages: DINK 27 year old, but we're planning children in the near future. How we handle the transition could change our FIRE plans a lot.

Starting Point
Our net worth is $175,000AUD. That includes $50k of Super (retirement account), which we can't touch until 65 or older. There rest of our stash is:
$155k cash
-$30k student loans at 2.5% interest

So we need to get on with investing ;)

Hey cool, Aussie! Nice to meet you. I'm down in Melbourne, hopefully gonna retire in about 10 years too :)

wbarnett

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 32
  • Location: Denver, CO, USA
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #433 on: December 19, 2018, 09:40:06 AM »
Late year check-in. Around 3x FIRE expenses now. The stock market isn't helping grow the stash much this year, but the optimistic view is that we're getting a bargain by buying now, right?

I mentioned to my mom (64 years old, roughly $2M net worth, scared to death to retire because she 'needs' $120k/yr in spending) that I'd like to retire in 2030. She was incredulous, and asked, "What are you going to do with yourself?" I didn't bother explaining, but did send her a MMM article about safe withdrawal rates. I'm hoping she'll read more on the site!

haypug16

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 946
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Boston, MA
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #434 on: December 19, 2018, 11:09:35 AM »
The stock market isn't helping grow the stash much this year, but the optimistic view is that we're getting a bargain by buying now, right?

That's what I keep telling myself. As long as I keep putting money in I'm good. number of shares increase and eventually the stock market will go back up and I'll make out better in the long run.

FIreDrill

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 989
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #435 on: December 19, 2018, 10:34:31 PM »


The stock market isn't helping grow the stash much this year, but the optimistic view is that we're getting a bargain by buying now, right?

That's what I keep telling myself. As long as I keep putting money in I'm good. number of shares increase and eventually the stock market will go back up and I'll make out better in the long run.

Yep, fighting this market is hard. We are down about 43k in the last 90 days...

Granted we have put in roughly 10k so we are getting some stocks on "sale".  Still hard to see the net worth slide back so drastically.  In the end it will probably benefit us if the market goes down/sideways for a while.  As long as we stay employed lol.

Sent from my moto g(6) using Tapatalk


MrOnyx

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 459
  • Location: East Anglia, UK
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #436 on: December 20, 2018, 03:06:09 AM »
Late year check-in. Around 3x FIRE expenses now. The stock market isn't helping grow the stash much this year, but the optimistic view is that we're getting a bargain by buying now, right?

I mentioned to my mom (64 years old, roughly $2M net worth, scared to death to retire because she 'needs' $120k/yr in spending) that I'd like to retire in 2030. She was incredulous, and asked, "What are you going to do with yourself?" I didn't bother explaining, but did send her a MMM article about safe withdrawal rates. I'm hoping she'll read more on the site!

I suggest digging up one of the reader case study articles where he punches a high earner/high spender in the face repeatedly, or one of the yearly numbers articles - where he reviews his spending for the year. That might blow a hole in her $120k/year boat.

And congrats on reaching 3x! Yep, got to make the most of these flash sales. Keep buying!

mizzourah2006

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 423
  • Location: NWA
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #437 on: December 20, 2018, 06:11:29 AM »
Late year check-in. Around 3x FIRE expenses now. The stock market isn't helping grow the stash much this year, but the optimistic view is that we're getting a bargain by buying now, right?

I mentioned to my mom (64 years old, roughly $2M net worth, scared to death to retire because she 'needs' $120k/yr in spending) that I'd like to retire in 2030. She was incredulous, and asked, "What are you going to do with yourself?" I didn't bother explaining, but did send her a MMM article about safe withdrawal rates. I'm hoping she'll read more on the site!

Iíve had similar discussions with my parents and in-laws. Theyíre all retired, but always talk about how life doesnít get cheaper when you retire, which is why I anticipate to have the same amount of income from my SWR that I have today while currently spending almost 30% of my expenses on daycare. They still basically canít understand how someone could live on so little. I think a lot of it has to do with them not ever tracking expenses, so they spend most of what they make and just assume itís on necessities, when likely 50% of it is waste.

x02947

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 40
  • Location: The South
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #438 on: December 20, 2018, 08:10:38 AM »
...
I mentioned to my mom (64 years old, roughly $2M net worth, scared to death to retire because she 'needs' $120k/yr in spending) that I'd like to retire in 2030. She was incredulous, and asked, "What are you going to do with yourself?" I didn't bother explaining, but did send her a MMM article about safe withdrawal rates. I'm hoping she'll read more on the site!

Iíve had similar discussions with my parents and in-laws. Theyíre all retired, but always talk about how life doesnít get cheaper when you retire, which is why I anticipate to have the same amount of income from my SWR that I have today while currently spending almost 30% of my expenses on daycare. They still basically canít understand how someone could live on so little. I think a lot of it has to do with them not ever tracking expenses, so they spend most of what they make and just assume itís on necessities, when likely 50% of it is waste.

Dad and Mom are the stereotypical upper middle class, retired military with high paying corporate job afterwards, type of spenders.  Never really discussed finances with them, but I know from snippets that they rely on military/corporate pensions rather than savings.  No or very minimal debt though.  The main issue on that front is the judgment I will get from them when they realize I won't "make something of myself" by climbing high up into the C-suite.

My in-laws are funny.  They have always been super frugal, making great spending choices, but FIL *hates* all things investment-ey.  His opinion is that it's all just a big shell game used to make rich people richer (I mean, true) and no matter what us peons will be screwed (not so true).  He's been with his 401k advisor from his company for decades, and the guy charges all kinds of fees and seriously underperforms.  FIL just shrugs his shoulders and goes "yah, what are you gonna do about it?"  Absolutely refuses to demand or look for better results.  So while their expenses are comparable to us (relatively speaking- 2 empty-nesters vs a family of 4) the thought of refusing to be a plankton going wherever the waves takes you is, well, kind of a stupid idea in their minds.  I don't mean this in a bad way-they are great people and I love them to death- but they are just... happy to go along.


...
I mentioned to my mom (64 years old, roughly $2M net worth, scared to death to retire because she 'needs' $120k/yr in spending) that I'd like to retire in 2030. She was incredulous, and asked, "What are you going to do with yourself?" I didn't bother explaining, but did send her a MMM article about safe withdrawal rates. I'm hoping she'll read more on the site!

I suggest digging up one of the reader case study articles where he punches a high earner/high spender in the face repeatedly, or one of the yearly numbers articles - where he reviews his spending for the year. That might blow a hole in her $120k/year boat.
...

Be careful with the face punch articles.  Not everyone appreciates it and they won't be able to get past how "mean" he is being to see the point of the article.  Another (albeit much older) version is The Tightwad Gazette, by Amy Dacyczyn.  Some/most of the advice is outdated, but it gets the "FI" theme across in a much nicer manner, and doesn't really stress the "RE" portion. 

rebel_quietude

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 41
  • Age: 33
  • Location: Colorado
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #439 on: December 22, 2018, 04:22:21 PM »
It's awesome to see new folks on here!  Welcome everybody!!!

I'll do another roll-up in the new year. :)

As far as the market goes . . . put in $60k this year...down $90k. *Sigh.*

I agree that parents, writ large, are weird. I typically blame it on formative experiences - and not everyone got a front row seat of the great recession recovery that I did. By the time that happened, my folks were set in their ways...

Happy holidays, everyone!

aceyou

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1533
  • Age: 35
    • Life is Good - Aceyou's Journal
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #440 on: December 28, 2018, 07:42:12 PM »
2018 Year End Update:

One year ago:
Net worth in December 2017   
Net Worth    $568,412
Net Worth - Pension    $403,566

Assets   
My Pension    $80,220
DW Pension    $84,626
Cash/Short Term Inv.    $67,311
Home Value    $275,000
Roth IRA's    $38,721
Traditional IRA's    $146,476
Life Insurance Policies    $11,491
Cars    $9,000
Total Assets:    $712,845
Liabilities   
Mortgage    $144,433
Total Liabilities    $144,433

Today
Net worth in December 2018   
Net Worth    $650,324
Net Worth - Pension    $458,669

Assets   
My Pension    $93,796
DW's Pension    $97,859
Cash/Short Term Inv.    $31,500
Home Value    $282,200
Roth IRA's    $95,111
Traditional IRA's    $161,314
Life Insurance Policies    $15,324
Cars    $7,800
Total Assets:    $784,904
Liabilities   
Mortgage    $134,680
Total Liabilities    $134,680

*last years numbers in parenthesis

2018 Finances at a Glance
Our net worth increased by $81,912 (120,393)
Our net worth not counting our pension increased by $55,103 (99,216)
We added $71,228 (109,206) to our retirement investments, for a total of $256,425
We added $56,390 to our Roth IRA's. This is all invested money that has already been
     taxed, so it will grow tax free forever. 
Saving this aggressively caused a $35,811 (18,960) dip in our bank account
Reasons our spending was $16,851 larger than last year: 
     1.  Extra Income taxes paid up front because of Roth'ing so much money
     2.  Grad Class taken this fall that hasn't been reimbursed yet.
     3.  I didn't coach this Fall
     4.  We've spent 5 to 10k more this due to fridge, hot water heater, other spending.


Looking Ahead to 2019
We will fill our Roth IRA's at the new year, dropping cash to about $18,000
This will mark the end of maxing our all of our retirement accounts each year. 
We will cut our contributions to our Roth 403B/457's by $35,000.  This will
     keep our checking account healthy. 
So, we'll put about $40,000 into our retirement accounts through work, on top of the
     $12,000 we'll put into our Vanguard 401k right at the start of the year, for about
     $52,000 total contributions towards our investments in 2019.
We will pay about $10,000 more towards principal on our mortgage
We will add about $10,000 towards our pensions
In total, about $72,000 of our income will go towards savings next year.  This is
     less than the last few years, but for the first time it won't cause our checking
     account to dip. 
If the stock market goes no where next year, our investments will rise to $308,425.
     If the market goes up, we'll have more, if down, we'll have less. 
Our net worth one year from now not counting our pension should go over $500,000
Our total net worth one year from now should be about $750,000
We are still on schedule to be FI by around 41 and able to comfortably retire at 48. 

Other thoughts:
  • I'm glad this was a down year for the markets.  It was a good test to see if that would bother me emotionally.  It had no negative effect on me, I just focused on the fact that I was buying extra shares, which made me happy.  I'm confident I can handle a sharp downturn in the markets.
  • I expect our spending to continue to rise as we increase travel with our children, and as the kids get into more expensive things like tennis/swimming/music, and so forth.  My hope is that we our income increases fast enough each year that both our spending and new investment contributions can increase a bit each year. 


letsdoit

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 326
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #441 on: December 30, 2018, 05:30:34 PM »
aceyou, can you please explain how you put so much into roth ira ?
---
We added $56,390 to our Roth IRA's.

aceyou

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1533
  • Age: 35
    • Life is Good - Aceyou's Journal
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #442 on: December 31, 2018, 08:35:15 AM »
aceyou, can you please explain how you put so much into roth ira ?
---
We added $56,390 to our Roth IRA's.

Sure,

We each put $5,500 into our Roth IRA through Vanguard in January...11k

We are public school teachers.  Our school offers the ability to fill up a Roth 403 (18K) instead of a traditional 403B.  Since our incomes are not super high (but our savings rate is), we don't need to shelter a whole lot of taxes right now, so we each did that...36k

That adds up to $47,000, which leaves me with about $9,000 still unaccounted for....so...

In the second half of 2017, my wife filled out the form through her employer to contribute to her Roth 403B.  Her employer incorrectly clicked the button to send it to her traditional 403B (because apparently no one ever chooses the Roth 403B).  When we caught their mistake, it took until 2018 for the school and our third party administrator to fix the problem and transfer the funds from a 403B to a Roth 403B. 

The fixing of that mistake accounts for the rest of the money.  Technically we contributed that last 9k in 2017, but it didn't show up on the balance sheet until this year.  I was frustrated with that whole deal, but oh well, it's a first-world problem to have and I can deal with that. 

Market gains (well losses I suppose in 2018:) account for the random dollar amount of 56,390. 


Mgmny

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 543
  • Age: 28
  • Location: Northwest 'Burbs of MSP
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #443 on: December 31, 2018, 12:02:45 PM »
2018 Year End Update:


Today
Net worth in December 2018   
Net Worth    $650,324
 


What's your FI number and why do you think it will take 12 more years?? Even if you coast for the next 12 years at 8% returns you'll have 1.6 mil. What am I missing? Why are you back so far / have such a high number?


wbarnett

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 32
  • Location: Denver, CO, USA
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #444 on: December 31, 2018, 02:16:58 PM »
Quote
What's your FI number and why do you think it will take 12 more years?? Even if you coast for the next 12 years at 8% returns you'll have 1.6 mil. What am I missing? Why are you back so far / have such a high number?

I can't speak for @aceyou but it looks like $190k is in pension funds, which probably can't be touched for a while. And another $150k is tied up in home equity.

aceyou

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1533
  • Age: 35
    • Life is Good - Aceyou's Journal
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #445 on: December 31, 2018, 07:48:49 PM »
2018 Year End Update:


Today
Net worth in December 2018   
Net Worth    $650,324
 



What's your FI number and why do you think it will take 12 more years?? Even if you coast for the next 12 years at 8% returns you'll have 1.6 mil. What am I missing? Why are you back so far / have such a high number?

Yeah, wbarnett pretty much hit the reason.  Pensions are a weird beast in the context of FIRE.  It won't actually take 12 years to hit FI...I'll probably hit it in about 8 years give or take.  But that leaves me 43 years old, and 5 years of work for my wife from two massive pensions that will explode our net worth.  I'd love to take 70% of that pension at age 43 and peace out, but it just doesn't work that way.  It's all or nothing, so when you get that close, we figure we might as well finish the race:) 

And secondly, I should say that both my wife and I truly feel we are doing meaningful work.  I get to teach STEM math classes and soon coding in Python to high schoolers all day.  That's a really cool opportunity to help kids prepare to do work in meaningful fields.  And my wife is in a consultant doing great work advocating for students whose primary language is not english.

Right now, working those last 5 years doesn't seem like a large burden.  If we feel very differently in 8 years, then maybe we will say screw the pension and cash out.  Life's a interesting journey isn't it!

Road2Freedom

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 34
  • Age: 43
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #446 on: January 01, 2019, 09:56:43 AM »
Setting this as our goal, but may be a stretch as Personal Capital says we have a 52% chance of our portfolio supporting our goals.  Also likely in for a rough patch at end of year due to wife's position being moved overseas.  She'll receive a severance and there's still a chance she may be kept on.  Until then, we'll keep on keepin' on.

Age: 42 (me) & 45 (DW)

Net worth: $482,632 (includes $30,342 that is in a 529 and other investments for our son who is 16)
Rollover IRAs: $120,969 (me) and $44,329 (DW)
Mutual Funds: $40,343
Roth IRA: $42,826 (me)
401Ks: $31,506 (me) and $118,387 (DW)
Cash: $54,224 (checking/savings - fluctuates quite a bit as one can expect)
529 & other college funds for our son who is 16:  $30,342

We have no debt and currently rent (long story short is we plan on moving after our son finishes HS in 2019).

NW - 521,381.

Figure I would do a quick update.  Won't break out the numbers, but can say that I maxed out my Roth IRA earlier this week and also bumped up our 401Ks to 20% (DW) and 25% (me) since finding the FI community back in May.

DW has also been extended to March and there's a possibility she may be kept on as the move overseas hasn't gone well.   Negative is they were acquired by a new company and health insurance is not as good and also more expensive.  May have to adjust 401K contributions in order to put money into a HSA.  Must say we were fortunate to have incredible insurance for so many years.

NW - $558,000.  Market's hot start to the year has really helped out.  Personal Capital shows an increase of slightly over $19,000 since Jan 1. 

Still figuring out how much of an impact having high deductible health insurance will have this year.
First, the bad...
So getting a big taste of having a HDHP and crazy to see what they bill you.  Ended up breaking a finger on my left hand (surgery) and fracturing my right wrist a couple weeks ago.  Talk about fun times.  At least the right hand is in a brace and should heal on its own.  Looks like I've hit my $4K deductible (plan started Jul 1) and will likely hit the individual out of pocket ($6850) soon.  Paid the hospital almost $3200 and just found out today that they overcharged me by almost $900 so get to chase that refund down next week.

And the good:
Wife ended up losing her job in May, got a decent severance (7 months), and started a new job earlier this month.  She has to commute now, so she's getting used to that, but she is actually making more money.  I set her 401K to 30% (max they allow) to try and stuff as much away as possible.  Plan is to also move closer to where we work after our son graduates next year.  Homes and taxes are definitely higher, but hope that will offset the time and money gained by having a shorter commute.

I'm in a 100% commission (recoverable draw) role and hit a pretty nice run this spring/summer that will end up being my best year to date.  That run, and the money that's finally starting to come in, will put me close to maxing my 401K at the end of the month.  Have never done that before and will try to add money to maximize paying for the medical bills.  I wish they would allow you to pick an amount so you could hit the number on the nose, but they only allow full percentages.

Finding the FIRE community last year has been great.  Helped me focus even more on saving for retirement and identifying cost saving opportunities.  Such a wealth of information on there.

Happy New Year to everyone on here!

Haven't updated this in a while and figured I'll at least try to do it annually.  I don't have an accurate snapshot on Personal Capital since I deleted an old 401K in mid-Jan.  Had my best year, from an income perspective, but also had to pay for some medical expenses and other dumb costly items.  Rough end of the year with the market resulted in investment accounts dropping $57,844 in the last 90 days.

Ended up switching investment accounts to 100% equities since we have a large cash balance.  Haven't decided if we're buying a home this year or will continue renting.  Definitely pro's/con's with our son graduating HS this spring.  He's going to a local college and will live at home for at least the first year.  I explained to him what we have put aside for college, so he understands living at home the first year will help stretch the money.  He'll also receive the Hope or Zell Miller scholarship in GA so that will help cover most of the tuition.

Net worth: $581,483 (includes $32,479 that is in a 529 and other investments for our son)
Rollover IRAs: $122,555 (me) and $44,930 (DW)
Taxable account (Fidelity S&P index): $43,240
Roth IRA: $47,409 (me)
401Ks: $57,684 (me), $136,501 (DW - old 401K - haven't done anything with it), and $5,242 (DW new 401K - started new job in mid-Aug)
Cash: $87,199 checking/savings - fluctuates quite a bit as one can expect)
HSA:  $3,921 (me) and $1,320 (DW)

We have no debt and currently rent.

Steeze

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 216
  • Age: 31
  • Location: NYC Area of Earth
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #447 on: January 01, 2019, 06:05:59 PM »
2018 Year End Recap

2.0x FIRE budget
2.6x current spending
3.2x current bare-bones expenses
8.6% of Fire Savings Completed
4015 Days until Fire
Aiming to contribute 1.5x a year from here on out
Also bought a condo this year, equity is not included here

haypug16

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 946
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Boston, MA
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #448 on: January 02, 2019, 08:43:17 AM »
Year End Update

X= Yearly Expenses
2017 - Stache at 1x   $25,000 - Ending Balance $29,448.59
2018 - Stache at 2x   $50,000 - Ending Balance $35,167.30 = 1.41x expenses
2019 - Stache at 2.5x   
2020 - Stache at 4x   
2021 - Stache at 6x   
2022 - Stache at 8x   
2023 - Stache at 10x   
2024 - Stache at 12x   
2025 - Stache at 14x   
2026 - Stache at 16x   
2027 - Stache at 18x   
2028 - Stache at 20x   
2029 - Stache at 22x   
2030 - Retire by end of year with 25x yearly expense rate

The market really took a hit on my number this year but I continued to contribute so should see a bigger increase when the market goes up. I adjusted my goal for the end of this year to 2.5x. I really hope I surpass this goal but we'll see. I think I am still in good shape to FIRE in 2030.

mizzourah2006

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 423
  • Location: NWA
Re: 2030 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #449 on: January 02, 2019, 09:13:27 AM »
Despite a bad year for the market our stache is still up 26% this year.
the stache is approximately 7.4x our expenses for this past year.