### Author Topic: 2029 FIRE Cohort  (Read 62351 times)

#### dogboyslim

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #250 on: September 13, 2019, 04:49:17 PM »
In case anyone else cares about the math behind coasting age:

Deconstructing this, its simply calculating the number of years it will take to get from your current portfolio balance to your target portfolio balance assuming a constant rate of return with no additional cash flows.

If current portfolio balance is P, and I return i each year, the P*(1+i)^n = T can be solved for N, such that (1+i)^n = T/P.  This Solving for n requires the ln.  ln{(1+i)^n} = ln{T/P}  becomes n = ln{T/P}/ln{1+i}.  In this case, Current Age (A) + n = Coasting Age (C).

The math done to derive the formula in the prior post starts the same, P(1+i)^(C-A)=T
=P*(1+i)^C/(1+i)^A = T
=P*(1+i)^C = T*(1+i)^A
= (1+i)^C = T/P*(1+i)^A
=ln((1+i)^C) = ln(T/P*(1+i)^A)
=C*ln(1+i) = ln(T/P)*(1+i)^A)
So then the prior formula: Coasting Age = ln((Target Portfolio/Current Portfolio)*(1+Portfolio Return)^Current Age)/ln(1+Portfolio Return)

The alternative is to do the following in Excel:
PV = C
FV = T
i = Portfolio Return
Use the NPER() function:
Coasting Age = NPER(i,0,-C,T) + Current Age.

This also allows you to add an amount to your portfolio each year to accelerate your time to Coast.  Simply replace 0 with the annual amount.  So if I'm going to add 10k per year at the end of the year:

Coasting Age = NPER(i,-10,000,-C,T,0)  If you add 10k at the begining of the year: NPER(i,-10,000,-C,T,1)

The formula assumes a loan, so the amount of PV is assumed to be negative, and payments are assumed to be negative.  Since this isn't a loan, but a positive value, adding positive values, you flip the sign to make it work.

Hope that simplifies this for folks.

EDIT: Wouldn't you know this was covered already with financial calculators!  Reiterating the prior point, if you want to account for inflation, just set i in the formula equal to your target portfolio return minus the expected inflation percentage.  So if you think your portfolio will return 6%, and inflation will be 2.5%, use 3.5% as i in the formula and it will work out.  Sorry for the duplication!
« Last Edit: September 13, 2019, 04:58:00 PM by dogboyslim »

#### talltexan

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #251 on: September 23, 2019, 02:32:24 PM »
Just checking in: fortunately, Mrs. TallTexan talked me into buying a less-expensive house than I wanted, so I may be able to hang here for a while, and not drop back into the 2030's for my FIRE date.

#### DeskJockey2028

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #252 on: September 24, 2019, 06:53:10 AM »
Still on track here. In the midst of the unexciting but hugely important "it's mostly automated, don't do much" phase!

I'm getting a raise in a few days, and I plan on allocating most of it towards our monthly mortgage payments, with the aim of getting our mortgage paid off a few years after we FIRE. That will instantly decrease our monthly spending. :)

If we're very lucky, we may be able to get it paid off at or around the same year ('28 or '29).  Still plugging away at our regular retirement savings as well.

#### henramdrea

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #253 on: September 24, 2019, 07:02:46 AM »
I'm fairly new here and just seeing this thread.  Looks like my new home for some accountability!  Turning 53 this year, January so will be 62 in 2029.  Not exactly retiring early by the MMM standards, but it will be earlier than I was projecting about 2 or 3 years ago.  I'll see if I can run some of the projections you all have run and put up on this thread.

In general by 2029 my youngest will be 18 (got a late start with that one) and the other two will be long out of the house and probably providing grandkids.  Home should be downsized, paid for, and excess invested by 58.

Retirement accounts generally look like this:
401's/403's = \$155K
Savings = 7K
Trading account = 6.5K
Whole life insurance policy (face-punch) = 50K

Currently live on about 6K per month (very bad) and will be working on slowly cutting that down over the next year.  Projected living expenses in retirement are 4.2K per month.

Anyway, thank you DJ for starting this thread, I figured it was out there somewhere!

#### DeskJockey2028

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #254 on: September 24, 2019, 07:10:41 AM »
Welcome!

#### Philociraptor

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #255 on: September 24, 2019, 08:02:32 AM »
The thing I love about this forum is its encouragement of constant optimization. Last year we finished filling our 401(k)s in October. This year we managed September. Next year we're going to go all-in and try and fill them by June. With the many benefits of frontloading and the fact that my match comes at the end of the year rather than each paycheck (wife's is per paycheck but they do a true-up at the end of each year), it's a no brainer.

#### kevinb421

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #256 on: October 09, 2019, 09:39:32 AM »
Big fan of the "coast" age. Did mine and it's 59!
The cool thing about that is that if I continue to work in the same position I have now for 6.5 more years I'll have a guaranteed pension that will pay 80-100% of expenses starting at 65.

Milestone - Today I am making an after tax transfer that will put my 2019 total invested just over \$80,000!

#### BuffaloStache

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #257 on: October 09, 2019, 12:17:22 PM »
6.5 years doesn't seem that long if you are enjoying your job. Good luck!

#### talltexan

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #258 on: October 18, 2019, 07:17:59 AM »
My wife has really been having a tough time at work. Worried that my retirement stache could need to relabled "FU Money" for my wife to downshift there. You guys could get me back from 2027 cohort.

#### DeskJockey2028

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #259 on: October 18, 2019, 07:27:53 AM »
Always welcome here in the class of '29!  Mental health, physical health, financial health - those three go hand in hand for a successful retirement.

My wife has really been having a tough time at work. Worried that my retirement stache could need to relabled "FU Money" for my wife to downshift there. You guys could get me back from 2027 cohort.

#### DeskJockey2028

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #260 on: October 23, 2019, 12:56:15 PM »
Hey '29ers!  I've been doing some math again, looking at my current savings rate, when I can take SS benefits, what my wife will get from it as well and all of that. And after a bit of number crunching, it's looking like I may, just may be able to get away with retiring in August of '27.  I originally thought I'd be going in '29, was able to up my savings rate and made '28 a decent contender. Now I'm looking at '27 provided that my SS benefits won't be significantly derailed in the 15 years it'll take until I can claim them.

I'm not thoroughly convinced of that 2027 date, but the next year or so will help me prove out how likely it is. FIRECalc and the Fidelity RIP tool are fairly happy with it though. So we'll see!

#### bbates728

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #261 on: October 24, 2019, 09:16:56 AM »
Hey '29ers!  I've been doing some math again, looking at my current savings rate, when I can take SS benefits, what my wife will get from it as well and all of that. And after a bit of number crunching, it's looking like I may, just may be able to get away with retiring in August of '27.  I originally thought I'd be going in '29, was able to up my savings rate and made '28 a decent contender. Now I'm looking at '27 provided that my SS benefits won't be significantly derailed in the 15 years it'll take until I can claim them.

I'm not thoroughly convinced of that 2027 date, but the next year or so will help me prove out how likely it is. FIRECalc and the Fidelity RIP tool are fairly happy with it though. So we'll see!

That would certainly be exciting for you Jockey!

I am not sure that I will include SS in my calculations and expectations. I don't believe it will go away like other people do, I just want to reserve that money for whatever additional health care costs or gift giving costs that will arise. That is one safety plan that fits perfectly with the long term unknowns of retiring so young (planned age of 36).

#### DeskJockey2028

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #262 on: October 24, 2019, 09:20:42 AM »
I agree with you on general FIRE principles regarding factoring in SS benefits. In my case though, I''ll be 55 years old when I punch that clock for the last time. That's 7 years to claiming my SS benefits. I'm about 15 years away from that point right now. I'd have to adjust if anything happened to SS but I'm getting close enough that it's less worrying. Time will tell!

#### bbates728

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #263 on: October 24, 2019, 09:25:20 AM »
I agree with you on general FIRE principles regarding factoring in SS benefits. In my case though, I''ll be 55 years old when I punch that clock for the last time. That's 7 years to claiming my SS benefits. I'm about 15 years away from that point right now. I'd have to adjust if anything happened to SS but I'm getting close enough that it's less worrying. Time will tell!

Wheeeeee!!! That is exactly what I was hoping to hear. I am glad that you have it planned out and hope we can count on you leading the charge for us '29ers. Hopefully you can show us the ropes once we get to our time :D

#### DeskJockey2028

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #264 on: October 24, 2019, 12:13:07 PM »
It's exactly 300 days earlier than my current predicted go date. That's nearly a year earlier! In one sense, it's a bit more extra time not working. In another sense, it's only 300 days - I may stick it through. Mostly because I'll still have one kid in college in '27, but no kids in college by the time I jump ship in '28. Having that paycheck for extra expenses, or to stick into more savings is kind of attractive. It's less than a year too.

On the other hand, I'm ready to be done now... so waiting 7 years, 9 months or 8 years, 7 months, well you can see which one looks more attractive.

Really, they're both targets. I'll have to see where I am 2, 4, 6 and 7 or 8 years from now.

#### Philociraptor

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #265 on: October 24, 2019, 01:10:21 PM »
Yup. Honestly we're so far out, much could change. Based on our last year of spending, I think we're looking at closer to 2034 now so that we can live a more FatFIRE lifestyle. But who knows. We could increase our incomes by a lot still, or this past year could be oddly high (replacing a home AC unit will do that to you). But as we all know about the general state of the world, projecting more than a couple years into the future is a difficult proposition.

#### BuffaloStache

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #266 on: October 25, 2019, 01:09:07 PM »

I am not sure that I will include SS in my calculations and expectations. I don't believe it will go away like other people do, I just want to reserve that money for whatever additional health care costs or gift giving costs that will arise. That is one safety plan that fits perfectly with the long term unknowns of retiring so young (planned age of 36).

That's my plan as well, even though I'll be in my early 40's when I hit FI. I like the idea of establishing a healthy level of safety margin before leaving the workforce. But your plan seems more sound, DJ, since you will be closer to SS age when you hit your mark.

#### caracarn

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #267 on: November 04, 2019, 01:14:52 PM »
It's exactly 300 days earlier than my current predicted go date. That's nearly a year earlier! In one sense, it's a bit more extra time not working. In another sense, it's only 300 days - I may stick it through. Mostly because I'll still have one kid in college in '27, but no kids in college by the time I jump ship in '28. Having that paycheck for extra expenses, or to stick into more savings is kind of attractive. It's less than a year too.

On the other hand, I'm ready to be done now... so waiting 7 years, 9 months or 8 years, 7 months, well you can see which one looks more attractive.

Really, they're both targets. I'll have to see where I am 2, 4, 6 and 7 or 8 years from now.
You have to stick with it.  You started this thread, and now you're telling us you're going to abandon it!?  I don't know about you, but if I was you I could not live with myself.  You have no choice but to stick it out.

#### DeskJockey2028

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #268 on: November 05, 2019, 07:17:29 AM »
Ha! The chances of the MMM forums still even existing in 2029 are, oh, I'd give it about 60%. :) . But I never said I would abandon the thread, just that I might abandon the working world significantly earlier.

It's exactly 300 days earlier than my current predicted go date. That's nearly a year earlier! In one sense, it's a bit more extra time not working. In another sense, it's only 300 days - I may stick it through. Mostly because I'll still have one kid in college in '27, but no kids in college by the time I jump ship in '28. Having that paycheck for extra expenses, or to stick into more savings is kind of attractive. It's less than a year too.

On the other hand, I'm ready to be done now... so waiting 7 years, 9 months or 8 years, 7 months, well you can see which one looks more attractive.

Really, they're both targets. I'll have to see where I am 2, 4, 6 and 7 or 8 years from now.
You have to stick with it.  You started this thread, and now you're telling us you're going to abandon it!?  I don't know about you, but if I was you I could not live with myself.  You have no choice but to stick it out.

#### talltexan

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #269 on: November 05, 2019, 08:35:48 AM »
I think the duty of the thread founder is to FIRE when ready, but then post updates to this thread about how great the FIRE'd lifestyle is to encourage the rest of us to stick it out...

#### DeskJockey2028

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #270 on: November 05, 2019, 12:17:01 PM »
I can live with that. :D

I think the duty of the thread founder is to FIRE when ready, but then post updates to this thread about how great the FIRE'd lifestyle is to encourage the rest of us to stick it out...

#### Daisyedwards800

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #271 on: November 05, 2019, 01:55:28 PM »
This is likely when I will retire as well.  I will be 47, my SO will have his pension already (and be retiring also) and we will not have to dip into our 401k etc. until much later.

#### bbates728

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #272 on: November 05, 2019, 02:07:26 PM »
I posted over on the student loan thread too but figured I would share it with my cohort. I just paid off the last of my student loans!!! I had \$70k when I began tracking with the forums in July '18 and today marks the official end :D

Now how much longer until 2029?

#### henramdrea

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #273 on: November 06, 2019, 05:15:21 AM »
I posted over on the student loan thread too but figured I would share it with my cohort. I just paid off the last of my student loans!!! I had \$70k when I began tracking with the forums in July '18 and today marks the official end :D

Now how much longer until 2029?
Way to go!  That's going to feel good, now go put those payments in your 'stache!  :)

#### BuffaloStache

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #274 on: November 06, 2019, 10:16:07 PM »
^CONGRATS! That's a huge accomplishment.

I think the duty of the thread founder is to FIRE when ready, but then post updates to this thread about how great the FIRE'd lifestyle is to encourage the rest of us to stick it out...

Also, I agree with this idea- I think any of us who reach FIRE before 2029 have that duty, but especially the thread founder.

#### DeskJockey2028

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #275 on: November 07, 2019, 06:54:44 AM »
I still very much remember the day I paid off the last of my student loans. It was long before I found this idea, or forum, but it was still an amazing day. Congrats!

I posted over on the student loan thread too but figured I would share it with my cohort. I just paid off the last of my student loans!!! I had \$70k when I began tracking with the forums in July '18 and today marks the official end :D

Now how much longer until 2029?

#### caracarn

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #276 on: November 07, 2019, 12:58:23 PM »
Wow.  My comment was just meant to be funny, but it evolved into a day of serious discussion.  Very nice.

#### talltexan

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #277 on: November 12, 2019, 08:19:21 AM »
Ha! The chances of the MMM forums still even existing in 2029 are, oh, I'd give it about 60%. :) . But I never said I would abandon the thread, just that I might abandon the working world significantly earlier.

It's exactly 300 days earlier than my current predicted go date. That's nearly a year earlier! In one sense, it's a bit more extra time not working. In another sense, it's only 300 days - I may stick it through. Mostly because I'll still have one kid in college in '27, but no kids in college by the time I jump ship in '28. Having that paycheck for extra expenses, or to stick into more savings is kind of attractive. It's less than a year too.

On the other hand, I'm ready to be done now... so waiting 7 years, 9 months or 8 years, 7 months, well you can see which one looks more attractive.

Really, they're both targets. I'll have to see where I am 2, 4, 6 and 7 or 8 years from now.
You have to stick with it.  You started this thread, and now you're telling us you're going to abandon it!?  I don't know about you, but if I was you I could not live with myself.  You have no choice but to stick it out.

I wonder what will cause the end of the Forum. Will our culture become so affluent that most people are able to live on 35% of their incomes, and no one needs to be taught how to do it?

#### DeskJockey2028

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #278 on: November 12, 2019, 08:20:58 AM »
If I had to make a prediction? The level of hacking/malicious activity trumps the amount of time the admins want to put into this site and/or its profitability.

Ha! The chances of the MMM forums still even existing in 2029 are, oh, I'd give it about 60%. :) . But I never said I would abandon the thread, just that I might abandon the working world significantly earlier.

It's exactly 300 days earlier than my current predicted go date. That's nearly a year earlier! In one sense, it's a bit more extra time not working. In another sense, it's only 300 days - I may stick it through. Mostly because I'll still have one kid in college in '27, but no kids in college by the time I jump ship in '28. Having that paycheck for extra expenses, or to stick into more savings is kind of attractive. It's less than a year too.

On the other hand, I'm ready to be done now... so waiting 7 years, 9 months or 8 years, 7 months, well you can see which one looks more attractive.

Really, they're both targets. I'll have to see where I am 2, 4, 6 and 7 or 8 years from now.
You have to stick with it.  You started this thread, and now you're telling us you're going to abandon it!?  I don't know about you, but if I was you I could not live with myself.  You have no choice but to stick it out.

I wonder what will cause the end of the Forum. Will our culture become so affluent that most people are able to live on 35% of their incomes, and no one needs to be taught how to do it?

#### caracarn

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #279 on: November 15, 2019, 05:49:01 AM »
Ha! The chances of the MMM forums still even existing in 2029 are, oh, I'd give it about 60%. :) . But I never said I would abandon the thread, just that I might abandon the working world significantly earlier.

It's exactly 300 days earlier than my current predicted go date. That's nearly a year earlier! In one sense, it's a bit more extra time not working. In another sense, it's only 300 days - I may stick it through. Mostly because I'll still have one kid in college in '27, but no kids in college by the time I jump ship in '28. Having that paycheck for extra expenses, or to stick into more savings is kind of attractive. It's less than a year too.

On the other hand, I'm ready to be done now... so waiting 7 years, 9 months or 8 years, 7 months, well you can see which one looks more attractive.

Really, they're both targets. I'll have to see where I am 2, 4, 6 and 7 or 8 years from now.
You have to stick with it.  You started this thread, and now you're telling us you're going to abandon it!?  I don't know about you, but if I was you I could not live with myself.  You have no choice but to stick it out.

I wonder what will cause the end of the Forum. Will our culture become so affluent that most people are able to live on 35% of their incomes, and no one needs to be taught how to do it?
In response to your comment TallTexan, I just finished Andrew Yang's "War on Normal People".  Well put together book and very interesting on the "normal" American.  Based on where we are at not in any danger of culture becoming affluent any time before we are all dead.  If people could live on 20K (35% of what 50%+ earn a year) then perhaps but pricing structures would have to vastly change for that to be possible.

#### EscapedApe

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #280 on: November 25, 2019, 10:33:05 AM »
Based on my rough calculations I should be hitting my retirement goal by 2029, so here I am.

#### DeskJockey2028

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #281 on: November 25, 2019, 10:33:54 AM »
Welcome!

Based on my rough calculations I should be hitting my retirement goal by 2029, so here I am.

#### FI4good

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #282 on: November 25, 2019, 03:15:44 PM »
Hi all ,

Just passing through and thought i'd post a progress report to my year group.

Started getting paranoid about disclosing too much on a forum and also really, once the glide path and auto-squirrelling away into investments is set what more is it that you want to know ?

Have sat and worked out that investments , VUSA , VUKE , SAUS and a few others depending which platform i use have as a whole portfolio roughly returned 8% a year for the last 5 years.
I did this by inputing in my average monthly payment into a compound interest calculator knowing the time scale and playing with the % till the approximate answer popped out.

Otherwise just gettin' on, gettin' on and waiting for the portfolio to get to the size where it is self supporting & me supporting.

Keep on , good fortune & health to you all

FI4

#### BuffaloStache

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #283 on: November 27, 2019, 10:20:26 AM »
Thanks for the update, FI4, and great information!

I too worry a little bit about posting too much information on this forum, but seemingly will care less and less as I get closer to FI.

Also, welcome EscapedApe!

#### talltexan

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #284 on: December 06, 2019, 09:18:21 AM »
I was actually hoping someone reading this would file my tax return for me.

Oh, and--if you're that person--I owed \$2,600 last year. So have your checkbook ready.

#### BuffaloStache

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #285 on: December 08, 2019, 07:55:10 AM »
I was actually hoping someone reading this would file my tax return for me.

Oh, and--if you're that person--I owed \$2,600 last year. So have your checkbook ready.

I'm definitely a little nervous about taxes this year. It'll be my first time filing with a rental property, so I'm worried about getting that right.

#### DeskJockey2028

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #286 on: December 16, 2019, 08:27:50 AM »
Wow, in 15 days and a bunch of hours, it'll be 2020! Our decade! Some of the time passes slow and some of it passes quickly - though I'm always surprised at how much of it has passed! Hope your holidays are great and that 2020 is a banner year!

#### talltexan

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #287 on: December 16, 2019, 08:36:40 AM »
Seeing your username @DeskJockey2028 reminded me that I grew up in a house with the address 2028, and that year is coming!

A lot of my childhood friends had addresses that have been recent years, but I left the area decades ago. I wonder if they even think about those.

#### BuffaloStache

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #288 on: December 16, 2019, 11:22:59 AM »
Wow, in 15 days and a bunch of hours, it'll be 2020! Our decade! Some of the time passes slow and some of it passes quickly - though I'm always surprised at how much of it has passed! Hope your holidays are great and that 2020 is a banner year!

Hope you have some great holidays as well, @DeskJockey2028!

It's a great time to reflect on 2019 overall. It's been a doozy of a year for me, but I think the "goods" have mostly outweighed the "bads".

Here's to a slow and steady 2020 to continue on our path to 2029 FI!

#### henramdrea

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #289 on: December 18, 2019, 05:51:14 AM »
Wow, in 15 days and a bunch of hours, it'll be 2020! Our decade! Some of the time passes slow and some of it passes quickly - though I'm always surprised at how much of it has passed! Hope your holidays are great and that 2020 is a banner year!
Indeed!  We'll be in single digits in a few days!  In fact, after New Year's day it will be 8 years, 360 days+ for most of us!
A lot can happen between now and then for sure.  Have a great holiday season!

#### BigIslandGuy

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #290 on: December 19, 2019, 12:25:19 PM »
Hello all, my fire date is Feb 6, 2029. That's not based on detailed math, just back of the envelope math, etc.  I will be 58. Not exactly an early retirement, but I just discovered FIRE after 30 years of financial mismanagement, so it is what it is...   I may be able to do "semi-retirement" a few years earlier... we'll see.
But doing a calculation to that fire date, I'm at 3,337 days!

This countdown thing reminds me of when I was in the Navy. Everyone on my ship (who hated it like I did) knew exactly how many days until their EAOS (end of Active obligated service).

#### SotI

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• Posts: 169
##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #291 on: December 19, 2019, 01:52:13 PM »
Welcome, BigIslandRyan.
I feel pretty much the same, I only started the MMM way about 18 months ago.
Fingers crossed that we can speed things up a bit, over time.

#### BuffaloStache

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #292 on: December 24, 2019, 11:16:02 PM »
Hello all, my fire date is Feb 6, 2029. That's not based on detailed math, just back of the envelope math, etc.  I will be 58. Not exactly an early retirement, but I just discovered FIRE after 30 years of financial mismanagement, so it is what it is...   I may be able to do "semi-retirement" a few years earlier... we'll see.
But doing a calculation to that fire date, I'm at 3,337 days!

This countdown thing reminds me of when I was in the Navy. Everyone on my ship (who hated it like I did) knew exactly how many days until their EAOS (end of Active obligated service).

Welcome, BigIslandRyan! I have to ask, do you live on the Big Island of Hawaii? Or is that your FIRE plan? Either way sounds good to me!

#### BigIslandGuy

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• Posts: 31
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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #293 on: December 25, 2019, 10:31:01 AM »
Hello all, my fire date is Feb 6, 2029. That's not based on detailed math, just back of the envelope math, etc.  I will be 58. Not exactly an early retirement, but I just discovered FIRE after 30 years of financial mismanagement, so it is what it is...   I may be able to do "semi-retirement" a few years earlier... we'll see.
But doing a calculation to that fire date, I'm at 3,337 days!

This countdown thing reminds me of when I was in the Navy. Everyone on my ship (who hated it like I did) knew exactly how many days until their EAOS (end of Active obligated service).

Welcome, BigIslandRyan! I have to ask, do you live on the Big Island of Hawaii? Or is that your FIRE plan? Either way sounds good to me!

Thank you! Happy to be here!  Feliz Navidad!  And I did live in Hawaii twice. Once during my Navy days (Pearl Harbor) and   back in 2010-2012 I lived on the Big Island. I love Hawaii but I dont have plans to retired there. However, I note that as a single guy, my retirement plans are very much open to whatever life brings in whatever locations it brings it.... and it may well involve the Big Island. It felt a little isolating there, though. Community/friends/network is super important there, otherwise you feel like you're alone at the edge of the world. Because you somewhat are. Other than that, Hawaii is awesome!

#### DeskJockey2028

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #294 on: January 02, 2020, 08:51:52 AM »
Welcome to 2020! It's our decade!

#### BigIslandGuy

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• Posts: 31
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##### Severe distrust of Equities and Bonds?
« Reply #295 on: January 02, 2020, 09:22:14 AM »
This might be the wrong place to bring this up.. but I'd like to get feedback from this group before I post for a larger audience. But...

Does anyone else here have a severe distrust of the stock market (and bond market) going into this decade? After a 10-11 year bull run, I simply cannot put any money into this market, firmly believing it is going to go into a severe pullback - in the neighborhood of 30-50%.  I have tried to bring myself to open a Vanguard account, but I just cant pull the trigger. The market is a bubble propped up by the Fed and corporate share buybacks. I know the Fed can keep it inflated for awhile, but for how much longer?

I feel about the stock market (and passive investing in the short term) the same that most people feel about Bitcoin - a highly risky speculative play that isnt going to end well. I cant bear the thought of seeing the bulk of my meager wealth get a major haircut

Sure, on a 20 year trend, all will probably be fine, but since we are wanting to FIRE in this decade, I feel like stocks and bonds are NOT the place to be. In fact, the only asset class that feels underpriced and set to outperform is precious metals -so i buy physical gold and silver, a tiny bit of BTC, a few shares of TESLA, and some ARK Invest ETF's. And ladder some CD's.

I have my 401k in a "Stable value" fund earning a pittance, and when I switch jobs i plan on rolling it into a precious metals IRA

Anyone else thinking stocks are going to nosedive and then take YEARS to recover, starting in 2020?  Or am I just nuts??

Happy New Year and new decade!  :)
« Last Edit: January 02, 2020, 10:40:14 AM by BigIslandRyan »

#### markbike528CBX

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##### Re: Severe distrust of Equities and Bonds?
« Reply #296 on: January 02, 2020, 09:57:14 AM »
......... In fact, the only asset class that feelsunderpriced and set to outperform is precious metals -so i buy physical gold and silver, a tiny bit of BTC, a few shares of TESLA, and some ARK Invest ETF's. And ladder some CD's.
........
Anyone else thinking stocks are going to nosedive and then take YEARS to recover, starting in 2019?  Or am I just nuts??

Happy New Year and new decade!  :)

Physical gold is above its 10 year moving average. Feels underpriced?

No nosedive in 2019, I personally guarantee it :-)

So you are worried about a "haircut" in the total stock market when you have the very frothy-est of BTC, Tesla? Really? Have you not been watching the thread "Top is in" ? Or the rest of the forum/ blog?

My suggestion is to open a Vanguard account NOW, and just direct a small (\$100/month) auto deposit at it. You won't miss it, and it will "get your toes wet", for later investing.

#### BigIslandGuy

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##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #297 on: January 02, 2020, 10:48:26 AM »
Ooops, I meant a haircut starting in 2020! Fixed that.  Yes I've been reading the TOP IS IN thread, and its pretty funny. But seriously, the top is in!  :)  Or will be sometime this year.

BTC is highly risky speculative play, but I think its 65% likely to go to 200k, and 45% likely to go to zero. Thats a risk/reward ratio I can live with.

All of my other investments are also "disruptors".   I see gold and silver doubling over the next 3 years.

Stock and bonds I see as 90% tanking hard within 2 years, with 10% (or less) chance of more than 2 more years of gains. So that feels like locking in a guaranteed loss.  SIGH.

But your advice about starting small with a Vanguard type fund is probably good advice. It just feels like putting dollar bills in the fireplace to me.

#### markbike528CBX

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• Location: the Everbrown part of the Evergreen State (WA)
##### Re: 2029 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #298 on: January 02, 2020, 11:52:07 AM »
....... It just feels like putting dollar bills in the fireplace to me.

You might want to try the physical act of putting a dollar bill in the fireplace.  I'll bet it feels more liberating than sad.

A fireplace is a safer place to put your dollar bills compared to a stripper's thong.  ;-)

"This planet has - or rather had - a problem, which was this: most of the people living on it were unhappy for pretty much of the time. Many solutions were suggested for this problem, but most of these were largely concerned with the movement of small green pieces of paper, which was odd because on the whole it wasn't the small green pieces of paper that were unhappy.”
― Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy via Goodreads.com