Author Topic: 2025 Fire Cohort  (Read 90969 times)

BoatSnack

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #400 on: August 14, 2020, 08:09:33 PM »
Hello everyone - New here, my wife and I are early 30s DINKs, earn a decent wage and save most of it. Have been on this path for a several years now (mostly inadvertently until last year or so).

Ran the numbers yesterday, the first time I've really truly dug into net worth, and determined we're at 10x spending for our current lifestyle (8x what we project with kids). With 70% savings rate and 5% returns, that puts us about 5 years away! In the meantime, we're looking to get more into real estate and other income streams so we've got a bunch of interesting things to sink ourselves into when we retire and the kiddos are at school (if we're not all still virtual in those days).

Just wanted to say hello, introduce myself, and look forward to joining and following along with you in our shared pursuit!
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 08:12:05 PM by BoatSnack »

charis

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #401 on: September 01, 2020, 12:48:31 PM »
As a result of being a FT working parent during this pandemic, I'm finally compelled to join a cohort.  I've run the numbers a lot and we should be at least FI by 2025.  RE is more of a question mark bc my spouse's career is still fairly newish and our oldest will be starting HS.

So college cost are a bit hard to predict yet and my spouse will probably want to go at least a couple of years more to reach the pension vesting date. I am, however, over the 9-5 office life and want more flexibility and/or fewer hours..

Howdy all!

oneday

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #402 on: September 01, 2020, 10:52:45 PM »
Welcome @charis ! Many of us are "over the 9-5 office life" :)

SFTF

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #403 on: September 19, 2020, 06:30:52 PM »
Me too. Iím planning to reach FI in 2025 with aggressive savings and no change in current status (job, personal, etc.). Goal is to hit 25x of my average expenses by 2025. Currently at 10X.

TomTX

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #404 on: September 19, 2020, 06:48:09 PM »
I'm out, folks. Presuming things stay reasonably on track (no worse than zero market growth) - I'm solidly in the Class of '23 for FI.

Kinda scary. I started the 2027 thread - but boosted income and a more granular look at investments/pension/SS has accelerated things, lopping off 4 years so far.

oneday

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #405 on: September 22, 2020, 10:48:21 PM »
Good going, @TomTX ! May you enjoy the rewards of your efforts for many years.

markbike528CBX

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #406 on: September 23, 2020, 10:16:18 AM »
I'm out, folks. Presuming things stay reasonably on track (no worse than zero market growth) - I'm solidly in the Class of '23 for FI.

Kinda scary. I started the 2027 thread - but boosted income and a more granular look at investments/pension/SS has accelerated things, lopping off 4 years so far.

Four years, wow! Awesome!   
I started the 2019 thread, but fired OLY in 2018.

evanc

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #407 on: September 24, 2020, 04:25:57 PM »
Greetings! Fellow 2025er. I found MMM in 2016 and got the face punch I was searching for. Fortunately, DW was on board once I shared the ďshockingly simple mathĒ post. We realized for the first time that we could actually do this (RE). Up to that point, basically everything I read said it was impossible. Once we made a plan, we set our sights on 2025 and havenít looked back since. Like some of you, we anticipate higher expenses post retirement due to a combination of increased healthcare costs, additional travel, and inflation. Hereís how we have progressed thus far with current levels of spending in parentheses for comparison purposes.

T-8 years: 5.77x (7.21)
-7: 7.13 (8.92)
-6: 9.06 (11.33)
-5: 10.52 (13.14)

and project the following:

-4: 12.85 (16.07)
-3: 15.65 (19.56)
-2: 18.64 (23.3)
-1: 21.83 (27.29)
FIRE: 26x (32.5)

There is some room, but the biggest added expense is healthcare on ACA or whatever is available at that point. Cautiously optimistic that we can make it happen in 2025. As of now, right on track. I will be 46 and DW a few years older.

TomTX

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #408 on: September 26, 2020, 11:01:28 AM »

Sandi_k

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #409 on: September 26, 2020, 11:19:23 AM »
So yesterday I updated all my spreadsheets, post-birthday. I've been aiming for 2025, but all projections assumed I'd have merit increases of 2-3% per year.

I decided to re-do everything, based on the idea that I will have no further raises between now and retirement. It was helpful to see that it will have little effect on my income in retirement...only about $300 per month difference overall.

I like to plan for the worst, and be pleasantly surprised if things go well. ;)

Otherwise, we're plodding along. Everything is pretty much on autopilot, so not much to add in terms of an update.

Sub-five years!!

Icecreamarsenal

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #410 on: September 27, 2020, 05:04:26 PM »
Sub-five!  If anyone can do it, you can.

Cyanne

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #411 on: September 27, 2020, 07:29:05 PM »
I would like in! 2025 looks to be my year.

TomTX

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #412 on: September 27, 2020, 07:35:09 PM »
I would like in! 2025 looks to be my year.

Sure, thing! Please take my seat, it's comfy enough.

Sandi_k

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #413 on: September 27, 2020, 07:51:54 PM »
Yep, we're aiming for 2025/early 2026 here. My pension multiplier takes a big jump up the minute I turn 60, so that's what we're planning for.

Currently have 12x additional living expenses in investments; that includes a mortgage that will be done in October 2031.

We're segmenting our savings into "bridge funds" for age 60-70, so that I can delay claiming SocSec until age 70; DH will probably claim at FRA, in 2030.

So I just recalculated - we're now at 20x living expenses. With five years to go.

Current plan has "bridge funds" for age 60-65; then the house is paid off, and opens up more discretionary funds. So from 65-70 the house is paid off, and DH has Social Security.

And after age 70, we'll have exhausted the "bridge funds", but we'll have a largely inflated SocSec on my record, a COLA-adjusted pension, DH's SocSec, and income at 4% from the investments.

Now, that assumes the payroll tax is still in place, and Trump hasn't imploded Social Security and Medicare.

We have begun talks about other countries to live in in our retirement years; I never thought we'd need to consider fleeing our country, but we both fear it is about to get bad.

oneday

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #414 on: November 23, 2020, 12:42:26 PM »
Thanks to @SaucyAussie who put together the most recent roll call in January. I'm in a planning mood and have some time on my hand before my job starts (woo hoo! It's only been 10 months since the sabbatical started). That adds up to update time!

Let me know if I can make any updates to this list.

A warm welcome to all the new folks this year; you've been bat-signaled!

01/28/16   Icecreamarsenal (OP)
02/02/16   golfreak12
02/03/16   druth
02/11/16   hm13hm13
03/03/16   chasingthegoodlife
03/24/16   CupcakeGuru
03/28/16   afuera
05/11/16   wienerdog
05/11/16   yourusernamehere
05/15/16   ardrum
06/01/16   AusLady
06/02/16   frugalecon
06/04/16   oneday
06/08/16   Gondolin
06/11/16   marty998
06/16/16   bryan995
08/08/16   beach2133
08/16/16   dougules
08/31/16   Zamboni
09/21/16   AK
09/29/16   Dragonswan
10/03/16   Fomerly known as something
10/05/16   economist
10/31/16   EngineerYogi
11/20/16   skiddieleet
12/11/16   swashbucklinstache
01/05/17   Spitfire
01/09/17   Laura33
02/23/17   mld
02/28/17   hettie1
04/10/17   Scrooge
04/18/17   Gone_Hiking
07/01/17   Sapphire
07/01/17   Bird In Hand
08/24/17   Anette
11/21/17   LadyDividend
11/23/17   Acyclist
12/27/17   SaucyAussie
01/01/18   aetheldrea
02/04/18   Anagnorisis
03/06/18   e34bb098
04/05/18   poniesandFIRE
04/24/18   BZB
05/18/18   MrSeven
06/02/18   Sandi_k
07/16/18   hunker_towards
07/16/18   Silrossi46
09/08/18   letsdoit
09/30/18   Neustache
10/19/18   achvfi
12/21/18   Fish Sweet
02/21/19   MrThatsDifferent
03/19/19   k290
04/02/19   yow
07/02/19   FireHiker
07/02/19   mizzourah2006
09/13/19   nmitb
10/05/19   Vashy
10/13/19   Scubanewbie
10/28/19   Junglebot
01/15/20   @Ricochet
01/28/20   @Sargemo
02/02/20   @FatFI2025
02/16/20   @MCL
03/05/20   @Staunch Aim
05/22/20   @facepalm
07/07/20   @moresprinkles
07/20/20   @on the road
08/04/20   @kevinb421
08/07/20   @LWYRUP
08/14/20   @BoatSnack
09/01/20   @charis
09/19/20   @SFTF
09/24/20   @evanc
09/27/20   @Cyanne

No longer aiming for FIRE in 2025:
03/08/19   Malkynn - medically retired
03/25/17   TomTX - graduated to Class of 2023

Edits:
10/13/19   never give up  - taking a different approach
01/31/16   tj - no longer shooting for 2025 specifically
« Last Edit: December 15, 2020, 12:32:35 AM by oneday »

oneday

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #415 on: November 23, 2020, 01:37:30 PM »
2025 is our stretch goal.  Currently have 3.3x spending in pre- & post-tax savings accounts, but will also get a substantial pension when Mr. O retires.  So yeah, it's a stretch, but I would love to retire with you all!!!

Well, a year can change a lot.  Mr. O (soon to be Mr. X) and I are divorcing.  I will probably give up claim to his pension in exchange for the real estate.  That will have a really big impact on my net worth.  No hard numbers yet, as the actuaries are still working on the pension calculations.

Whew! It's been a long time since I put a progress report on this thread, hasn't it? I am now fully extricated from Mr. X.  He kept all his retirement funds and I kept mine. Turns out after the pension was brought to present value, it was similar to the funds I'd socked away in 401(k)'s at various jobs over the years.  We sold the real estate and split the proceeds evenly.

Recovery from the divorce took longer than I expected, then I spent a year tracking spending so I'd have a really good data set to work with. But it turned out to be the Covid year, so lol to good data sets. Anyway, based on the info I have, I'm at about 8x expenses. 

I'll start a new job soon and there are developments over the winter that should help keep expenses down or even reduce them. So I feel pretty confident that 8x is a reasonably good estimate. And I feel pretty good that I've reached 8x, after being at 3.3x just 4 short years ago, and considering all that has changed in my life since then.

I might even be at 9x by this time next year!

TomTX

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #416 on: November 24, 2020, 08:15:53 AM »
No longer aiming for FIRE in 2025:
03/08/19   Malkynn - medically retired
03/25/17   TomTX - graduated to Class of 2023

It's very sweet of you to maintain the list and still include us.

oneday

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #417 on: November 24, 2020, 04:15:33 PM »
No longer aiming for FIRE in 2025:
03/08/19   Malkynn - medically retired
03/25/17   TomTX - graduated to Class of 2023

It's very sweet of you to maintain the list and still include us.

Ha!  It's the accountant in me. Everyone must be reconciled! :)

Sapphire

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #418 on: November 25, 2020, 02:19:23 AM »
Thank you for updating the list Oneday, we are still plodding along...our savings took a beating early Covid, but seem to have recovered now...it certainly made me appreciate we need a good cash buffer for when the market is down. 

oneday

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #419 on: November 26, 2020, 09:04:59 PM »
Good to hear you are doing well despite losses earlier in the year.

Sandi_k

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #420 on: November 27, 2020, 10:40:45 AM »
We're up about 8.5% for the year, not including contributions. Since we assume 5% returns, we're ahead for the year in terms of expectations.

Retirement date: 4 years, 11 months....if we make it through the effects of CV-19 at work.So glad we're planning for retirement as aggressively as we are; if I get laid off, it probably means I can just retire.

Every month is a victory!

Vashy

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #421 on: November 30, 2020, 10:33:18 AM »
Mostly still on track despite the kind of "grit your teeth and keep going" year...

BoatSnack

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #422 on: December 01, 2020, 06:04:23 PM »
Here to "reconcile" myself, as oneday says.

Wife got a nice bonus, and stock market has been quite healthy lately. That's moved us up from July to May 2025!

never give up

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #423 on: December 13, 2020, 02:47:41 AM »
Thanks for including me in the list oneday. Iím taking a different approach with things though so sadly I wonít be in this cohort. Feel free to reconcile me however you see fit :-)

I wish everyone here well and hope your plans stay on track for 2025 or possibly move earlier.

tj

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #424 on: December 13, 2020, 03:18:59 PM »
@oneday thanks for keeping track of the list.


I'm no longer shooting for 2025 specifically.

Since I made the second comment in this thread almost 5 years ago, so many things have happened:

1.) Quit my job with the plan to take a single year off and return to the workforce doing something new.
2.) Found a job. Quit that job with no plans of when to work again.
3.) Found a completely new job with the federal government in Hawaii.
4.) Found yet another completely new job with the federal government in Arizona
5.) Will be moving back to California for the 3rd government job within 2.5 calendar years, doing similar work as Fed Job #2.


Since I am almost two years into the pension train now, I have some options:

1.) Stick around until 2042 when I can retire with a reduced pension and retiree health insurance for life.
2.) Stick around until 2042 and delay the unreduced pension and retiree health insurance to 2045.
3.) After hitting 25x projected retirement expenses some time well before 2042, up and quit, foregoing the retiree health insurance and pension.
4.) Work until 2029, delaying the reduced pension to 2042 or unreduced pension to 2047
5.) After hitting 25x expenses, switch to a seasonal and/or part time job with the government to ride out the time until 2042.
6.) if I get bored with current government job, try some other government job.
7.) Hope to get targeted for an "early out" retirement, where I get retiree health insurance, unreduced pension, and a pension supplement until 2047.  I would first be eligible in January of 2039.  I'm told it's not something you strategically can plan for unfortunately.

The government gives so much time off, and I can work a 4/10 schedule, that I'd be surprised if I want to leave in 5 years, but anything is possible.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2020, 03:22:38 PM by tj »

markbike528CBX

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #425 on: December 13, 2020, 03:52:13 PM »
@oneday thanks for keeping track of the list.


I'm no longer shooting for 2025 specifically.

Since I made the second comment in this thread almost 5 years ago, so many things have happened:

1.)
2.)
3.) federal government in Hawaii.
4.) Found yet another completely new job with the federal government in Arizona
5.)3rd government job within 2.5 calendar years, doing similar work as Fed Job #2.
......
Since I am almost two years into the pension train now, I have some options:

So you are 2 years of 22? into a sunk cost fallacy?
If you need excitement (referenced from another thread) why not chose private industry vs the Feds?

tj

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #426 on: December 13, 2020, 05:29:03 PM »
@oneday thanks for keeping track of the list.


I'm no longer shooting for 2025 specifically.

Since I made the second comment in this thread almost 5 years ago, so many things have happened:

1.)
2.)
3.) federal government in Hawaii.
4.) Found yet another completely new job with the federal government in Arizona
5.)3rd government job within 2.5 calendar years, doing similar work as Fed Job #2.
......
Since I am almost two years into the pension train now, I have some options:

So you are 2 years of 22? into a sunk cost fallacy?
If you need excitement (referenced from another thread) why not chose private industry vs the Feds?

Because I don't have the credentials to earn more in the private sector. When I worked in private sector, the first job cut the 401k match because of the economy, the 2nd job had no 401k at all. Working for the govt, I earn more salary, get a 5% match on retirement savings, have cheaper health insurance, more time off, and if I stick around long enough, I get lifetime health insurance and pension.

Why wouldn't I work for the feds (if I'm going to work?) ?

I don't yet have enough to just not work forever. Once I hit that number, I can re-assess, which i believe I mentioned as one of the options. It could happen in 2025. Or it could happen before that or after that, but until then I don't see why I wouldn't take the decent paying lower stress job with acceptable work/life balance.

And unlike the private sector, I don't really mind my job. There are aspects of it that I don't like, but I have a lot of autonomy, especially during 100% telework. It's the complete opposite of when I was driving 40 minutes each way working for a $15/hr job and calculated my "profit" after the "costs of working" was completely neglible, lol.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2020, 08:56:59 AM by tj »

SaucyAussie

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #427 on: December 30, 2020, 09:17:12 AM »
Still in, I had a great year financially due mainly to the strong markets, coupled with the fact that all my travel was canceled allowing me to save more than expected.

Technically my FIRE calculator now brings me well into 2024 but I am effectively handcuffed to 2025 by the Rule of 55.  Also my kids graduate high school in 2025 so it just makes sense.  But there are some days when I wonder if I'm gonna make it that long...

AK

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #428 on: December 30, 2020, 10:07:53 AM »
Tossing my hat in the ring. We currently have about 3x current yearly expenses, with debt comprising half the expenses, in investable assets. The plan is to pay off the mortgage and student loans before being done. My wife and I will be in our early 40s and DD will be in elementary school.

In some ways, I already feel R.E. by becoming self-employed, working from home, and going on occasional daytime outings with my wife and DD when I feel like it. So far, I have never been happier.

Good luck everyone!

Things are going well here too. Expect to be close or at lean-FI next year which is better than expected. My current plans are to work until 2025 full-time and then re-evaluate. A sabbatical for a few months sounds enticing too for an RE trial run. The part I struggle with is what am I retiring too. I know I'd get bored not being productive at something but I also love trying new things so in the interim, I'm going to explore some new hobbies and see.

achvfi

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #429 on: December 30, 2020, 10:35:52 AM »
We are at ~360K net worth, if everything goes well we should be around a Million by 2025. I think it will be time I will reevaluate what I want to do next in my life.
Its been 2 years since my post and our net worth doubled, we reached ~$755,000. We might reach a million in 2 more years.

Wish you happy new year!

Sapphire

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #430 on: December 31, 2020, 05:32:18 PM »
Also still here.  After initial loss in portfolio value with market swings earlier in the year, like Saucy Aussie (great name BTW :)) - recovery has been good and we have also saved a lot with no travel (or much else really, given I live in Victoria which was locked down for 112 days...).   

Sandi_k

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #431 on: January 01, 2021, 04:23:05 PM »
So we really did well with investments for the last 5 weeks of the year! We went from the reported 8.5% increase to an internal ROI of 14.34%, not counting our contributions.

In terms of liquidity, that means we went from $743k to $873k in our retirement accounts.

We could be Portfolio Millionaires by this time next year. ;)

We're up about 8.5% for the year, not including contributions. Since we assume 5% returns, we're ahead for the year in terms of expectations.

Retirement date: 4 years, 11 months....if we make it through the effects of CV-19 at work. So glad we're planning for retirement as aggressively as we are; if I get laid off, it probably means I can just retire.

Every month is a victory!

Scubanewbie

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #432 on: January 10, 2021, 07:48:10 PM »
I'm still loving the 2025 plan and on track financially.  Hit $1m invested assets near EOY and keep checking fire all to convince myself its real.  If I stay at my current longstanding job I will quit in April so looking forward to posting 'under five years' in a few months.  Hooray!

Sandi_k

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #433 on: January 10, 2021, 10:03:23 PM »
I'm still loving the 2025 plan and on track financially.  Hit $1m invested assets near EOY and keep checking fire all to convince myself its real.  If I stay at my current longstanding job I will quit in April so looking forward to posting 'under five years' in a few months.  Hooray!

If you're planning on exiting in April 2025, you'll be UNDER FOUR YEARS!

;)

Sapphire

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #434 on: January 11, 2021, 03:09:33 AM »
OMG!! I just realised that it could be Under Four Years this year!!

Fomerly known as something

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #435 on: January 11, 2021, 05:04:20 AM »
Not that Iíve ever had a five year car loan, but since July 17th Iíve compared my work countdown to one.  I have 55 months (payments) to go.

swashbucklinstache

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #436 on: January 11, 2021, 08:05:29 AM »
Not that Iíve ever had a five year car loan, but since July 17th Iíve compared my work countdown to one.  I have 55 months (payments) to go.

I like this!

OMG!! I just realised that it could be Under Four Years this year!!

And I LOVE this =)

swashbucklinstache

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #437 on: January 11, 2021, 08:20:57 AM »
Yah chief, sign me up. Likely as FI rather than FIRE, with a few extra years to pad on after, but so much could change from now to then. Aged 27, 8.5x current expense saved, no house, 65% or so savings rate give or take. Single, readiness-to-mingle currently TBD

Well, there was my original post in 12/2016! In the intervening 9 months I've moved from 8.5x current expenses to 10.96x and upped my savings rate a few percentage points! I'm still an immature smartass though :).

My life is so far from where it'll be in 2025 that it's hard to say how i'm doing, but things are headed in the right direction. I could be in the 650k-900k range if things go roughly how they've gone so far. The high end of that is looking damn near the end of things for full-time worker bee me if I'm still single and childless at that time, or at least time to ask for a stupid amount of money not to go a-wanderin'.

Hope everyone else is on track, too.

Update, maybe I'll keep an annually running tab in this thread if people don't mind :).
stache as multiple of 3 year trailing current expenses
12/2016: 8.5x
09/2017: 10.96x
12/2017: 11.6x - would be higher but have had an expensive year

2018 EOY update:
2016: 8.5x
09/2017: 10.96x
2017: 11.6x
2018: 13.65x

I'm aiming for ~45x with these numbers for FIRE (health insurance, likely lifestyle changes etc.).

How is everyone else doing as we start 2019?

2019 EOY update:
2016: 8.5x
09/2017: 10.96x
2017: 11.6x
2018: 13.65x
2019: 16.99x (with a high expense year! trailing 3 years is more like 19.26x)

Getting there! Closing in on half a million with a minimum FI goal of 1 million and saving 100-115 a year right now means I might be as little as ~3 years out with just a little above average returns or some raises.
Like many, I'm fortunate to say that 2020 was good to my assets. I closed the year at 711k net worth. That's good for 28x my trailing three years of expenses. I'm pushing on to 1mm mostly to account for desired lifestyle changes (travel, big city living) + flexibility  (family) in retirement. But, that could be as soon as 1.4 years from now with 6.7% returns and 110-120 annual contributions. We'll see what mr market has to say, but decent chance I check out ahead of 2025 at this point. If I do see 7 figures with such high valuations I might turn to one of several "step towards FIRE" plans rather than leap outright. 2025 projects at 1.5mm if nothing changes and averages hold, so probably wouldn't hang around that long barring big lifestyle changes.

Porkins

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Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #438 on: January 13, 2021, 12:46:47 PM »
Pencil me in for 2025. I *think* we're on track for around June that year after company 401k match goes through plus a couple of weeks. I just posted a Case Study in the other sub-forum and hopefully won't be told to GTFOH with a 2025 expectation. Suspicious that bull market returns are false advertising. :/

Shooting for 30x FatFIRE expenses.
2016: 9.67x
2017: 11.83x
2018: 12.91x
2019: 16.91x
2020: 21.93x