Author Topic: 2025 Fire Cohort  (Read 22745 times)

AussieMoneymo

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 1
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #100 on: December 15, 2016, 08:28:47 PM »
Hello fellow 2025 FIRE's,

Our plans are to retire either before or around 2025. That will put DW at 44 and myself at 43, kids 14 and 11 by then.

Current position is $260K equity in home and $200K in Superannuation (equivalent to 401K) which cannot be accessed until 65 years old.
Saving rate of approx 70%, so another 1.5 years to pay off mortgage and get stuck into building our investments.

We estimate that we need around $1.5M + a paid off home, so that's the goal!

Very excited to record this goal in writing and start to work towards it.

Icecreamarsenal

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 457
  • Location: New Jersey
  • Set me free
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #101 on: December 28, 2016, 02:05:52 PM »
Hello fellow 2025 FIRE's,

Our plans are to retire either before or around 2025. That will put DW at 44 and myself at 43, kids 14 and 11 by then.

Current position is $260K equity in home and $200K in Superannuation (equivalent to 401K) which cannot be accessed until 65 years old.
Saving rate of approx 70%, so another 1.5 years to pay off mortgage and get stuck into building our investments.

We estimate that we need around $1.5M + a paid off home, so that's the goal!

Very excited to record this goal in writing and start to work towards it.

Hey that's fantastic, glad to have you along for the ride.  I know only the rules for the 401ks, there is a 'sneaky' way to access them earlier than 65 yo according to the Mad Fientist.  Perhaps there's a way to get to your superannuation before the age of 65 as well.

rentalnewbie

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 21
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #102 on: January 01, 2017, 10:04:15 PM »
Countdown clock informs me that I have 99 months to go. Liking being out of triple digits.

That's a fun way to think about it!

I recently checked my spending for 2016 and had a minor mint- induced heart attack then realized it's because 1) we bought a rental this year (down payment "expense" + another mortgage added, though the net is an increase in income)  and 2) we're getting married next year and have paid close to 10k in deposits this month. Damn, weddings are expensive!

But taking those costs out, our "normal" spending was on track. Also i got a promotion with a 19% raise and future husband is in the final stage of selection for a job paying almost 50% more than what he currently makes  (his current salary is crap so this is decent). 2025 is looking promising!

How's everyone else looking at the end of 2016?

Spitfire

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 194
  • Location: Weston, FL
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #103 on: January 05, 2017, 03:23:00 PM »
2025 looks like the year for me, it would put me at 45 years old. Targeting 900k invested and a paid off condo for a 36k annual spend. As of 12/31/16 I've got 220k invested and 88k of a mortgage, or a net of 132k. About 15% of the way there. I'm so ready to be free from this office!


Icecreamarsenal

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 457
  • Location: New Jersey
  • Set me free
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #104 on: January 06, 2017, 06:26:25 AM »
T minus 8 years. Let's stay on track people.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Lethie

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 1
  • Age: 35
  • Location: Idaho
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #105 on: January 06, 2017, 01:42:10 PM »
I finally did some savings projections and it looks like we're in this group. Goal is 1Mill in investments and house paid off. We're making really good progress, and this assumes we only have 1 person working (we have 2 kids, 1 not in school yet). Of course, if I actually did something to increase my save rate and dump the McMansion, it would be sooner.  Glad to be part of 2025!

Need2Save

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 151
    • Visit us at our Blog
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #106 on: January 08, 2017, 11:10:33 AM »
Countdown clock informs me that I have 99 months to go. Liking being out of triple digits.
How's everyone else looking at the end of 2016?

I haven't checked this thread in a while.  Welcome to the newcomers!  Glad to have you on the 2025 board. 

We felt great about the end of 2016. 
#1 - We paid off $55k from our mortgage principle and are on track to pay the balance off in slightly more than 4 years
#2 - We have about 2 of our pre-60 retirement years funded
#3 - We have about 14.5 of our post-60 retirement years funded

Looking forward to 2017 being another awesome year and inching those goals forward even further. 

tj

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1087
  • Age: 32
  • Location: Phoenix
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #107 on: January 08, 2017, 03:08:20 PM »
I'd say I'm on a track, but I'm heading off rtack for a bit as i take time away from work for a "gap year" of sorts. I also put a not-small figure in a Donor Advised Fund as I don't think I should retire early at the expense of giving back.

Laura33

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1116
  • Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #108 on: January 09, 2017, 07:05:14 AM »
Hi guys -- been lurking for a while, figured I'd declare myself here.  I don't deserve the name of "Mustachian" -- I'm more like a former Mustachian who married a Spendypants and discovered she liked it a little too much.  So I've got some muscles that need building back up, and a husband who just has no desire to change anything (yes, I've read the SO thread; we are all the way back at "hey, there's this interesting blog" bit).  Not saying we're horrible -- we always kept fixed expenses to one income, except for one short/bad period, and I made sure we always saved at least 15%.  But we're high-income and could have done better.  He just has this rather silly belief that if you budget for a category, it's ok to spend that money. :-) 

We are 50, and I would say we are probably FI now -- we could lose both jobs and not lose the house.  But I am settling on 2025, because that is my target for RE (with "E" being by "normal people" standards, not Mustachian ones), because DS will leave for college in the fall of 2024.  The huge time gap between FI and RE is partly because we have a pretty spendy plan for retirement, partly because we both have good jobs that we largely enjoy, and partly because we are both drawing a blank on "what I want to do when I grow up."  He in particular is working in advanced tech and trying to create things that don't currently exist, which he enjoys and thinks is really important.  We both want to retire *to* something, not just run away from the grind, so I plan to spend the next few years figuring out what that is.   

Where we are now is probably at 10x desired future expenses in spendable assets.  I need to go do some math to figure our current savings rate, but I'm guessing it's @ 40% of net income.  No debt other than mortgages on main house and retirement condo; the former is under 3% on a 15-yr that will be done when we retire, the latter is a 30-yr at 4% but is basically covered by a full-time tenant (we found a great deal during the crash that we couldn't pass up) and will also be paid off by the time we retire.
Laugh while you can, monkey-boy

Need2Save

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 151
    • Visit us at our Blog
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #109 on: January 12, 2017, 07:09:53 AM »
The huge time gap between FI and RE is partly because we have a pretty spendy plan for retirement, partly because we both have good jobs that we largely enjoy, and partly because we are both drawing a blank on "what I want to do when I grow up." 

No rules on what your retirement budget needs to be.  Not all of us are content with spending $25 to 40K a year in retirement.  We continue to tweak our target retirement spending plans, but they have come down a little.  Not a lot, but a little.  I've seen as high as $75 - 100k in annual spending on this forum.

We are focusing on how much after-tax money is needed to sustain a certain amount of travel in retirement.  Although we will be doing a Roth Conversion ladder in our pre-60 retirement years to get as much money into post-tax vehicles, we will still have the majority of our retirement funds in pre-tax accounts when we are in our 60's.  So we're building in certain assumptions for future tax rates on those withdrawals.

Welcome to the Cohort!   

Need2Save

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 151
    • Visit us at our Blog
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #110 on: January 12, 2017, 07:12:55 AM »
I also put a not-small figure in a Donor Advised Fund as I don't think I should retire early at the expense of giving back.

We are looking hard at the Donor Advised Fund option this year.  We may just do this in 2017. I really like the idea of getting the tax break when our earnings are the highest and deciding how to use this as our time and interests emerge.

Is this a one-time and one investment or are you planning to add to the DAF in future years when you are done with your gap break?

Laura33

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1116
  • Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #111 on: January 12, 2017, 04:19:50 PM »
The huge time gap between FI and RE is partly because we have a pretty spendy plan for retirement, partly because we both have good jobs that we largely enjoy, and partly because we are both drawing a blank on "what I want to do when I grow up." 

No rules on what your retirement budget needs to be.  Not all of us are content with spending $25 to 40K a year in retirement.  We continue to tweak our target retirement spending plans, but they have come down a little.  Not a lot, but a little.  I've seen as high as $75 - 100k in annual spending on this forum.

We are focusing on how much after-tax money is needed to sustain a certain amount of travel in retirement.  Although we will be doing a Roth Conversion ladder in our pre-60 retirement years to get as much money into post-tax vehicles, we will still have the majority of our retirement funds in pre-tax accounts when we are in our 60's.  So we're building in certain assumptions for future tax rates on those withdrawals.

Welcome to the Cohort!

Thanks!  Our retirement priority is also the travel -- you are asking exactly the same question we are.  (And that's also why we need to get the kids out of the house to fully pull the plug -- I always wanted to go abroad with the kids for a year or two, but that didn't happen for a number of reasons, and now it doesn't feel fair to them to yank them out of HS for a couple of years.  So we're trying to maximize the summer travel with the kids while they are still here, and then we'll do the bigger jaunts once they're fledged.)
Laugh while you can, monkey-boy

frugalecon

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 389
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #112 on: February 01, 2017, 07:06:30 PM »
With about 8 years to go, I vacillate between feeling like I am close to the end of my formal work life and feeling like it is practically forever until I am free. I have a countdown clock spreadsheet, but that may undermine my morale, even if it makes me feel more in charge. As we get closer to 2025, will the time seem to go faster or slower? Any thoughts?

Fire2025

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 219
  • Location: LA LA Land
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #113 on: February 01, 2017, 10:19:41 PM »
Hello all,
I guess this is my group, hence the name, but we were price out of cheap rent this year, I live in a HCOL area, and we decided to buy a house, so I've had to make some big adjustments.  Damn "fare market value" damn it all to hell. 

Now the plan is to "retire" at the end of 2025, but we will either sell the house and move to a LCOL location, or I will work PT to pay the mortgage and have my stache pay for everything else until Social Security kicks in.  Oh, did I mention I'm one of the old people on the site, 46, retiring at 55.

Quote
As we get closer to 2025, will the time seem to go faster or slower? Any thoughts?

"The older you get the faster time goes", not sure who to give credit for this saying, but I've found it to be true.

Laura33

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1116
  • Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #114 on: February 02, 2017, 08:00:00 AM »
With about 8 years to go, I vacillate between feeling like I am close to the end of my formal work life and feeling like it is practically forever until I am free. I have a countdown clock spreadsheet, but that may undermine my morale, even if it makes me feel more in charge. As we get closer to 2025, will the time seem to go faster or slower? Any thoughts?

This resonates with me -- I grew up ambitious, and there's always been another "thing" to push for, somewhere else I needed to prove myself.  And then all of that just started to fade away -- I hit a point where I realized I really didn't have anything else to prove, my stepdad died and work started to feel more meaningless, etc.  But the big shift came when we decided we were about 10 years out from calling it quits -- that made me realize I was probably at or close to my peak in my job, which meant there really wasn't much else to push for.  I mean, sure, I can work harder and earn more money, but money alone isn't an awesome motivator when I'm already making enough; I am feeling more like I want to carpe me some diem. 

The problem is that shifting my focus from work to after-work has created an ambition void, so work feels more like an aimless slog than something that engrosses me.  It sure seems to make the time go more slowly than it used to!
Laugh while you can, monkey-boy

frugalecon

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 389
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #115 on: February 02, 2017, 09:55:34 AM »
With about 8 years to go, I vacillate between feeling like I am close to the end of my formal work life and feeling like it is practically forever until I am free. I have a countdown clock spreadsheet, but that may undermine my morale, even if it makes me feel more in charge. As we get closer to 2025, will the time seem to go faster or slower? Any thoughts?

This resonates with me -- I grew up ambitious, and there's always been another "thing" to push for, somewhere else I needed to prove myself.  And then all of that just started to fade away -- I hit a point where I realized I really didn't have anything else to prove, my stepdad died and work started to feel more meaningless, etc.  But the big shift came when we decided we were about 10 years out from calling it quits -- that made me realize I was probably at or close to my peak in my job, which meant there really wasn't much else to push for.  I mean, sure, I can work harder and earn more money, but money alone isn't an awesome motivator when I'm already making enough; I am feeling more like I want to carpe me some diem. 

The problem is that shifting my focus from work to after-work has created an ambition void, so work feels more like an aimless slog than something that engrosses me.  It sure seems to make the time go more slowly than it used to!

Your post really encapsulated a lot of my feelings, but expressed more completely. Thanks for sharing it. My dad died not too long ago, and I think that loss might be affecting me as well. He was a real workaholic who never paused to "smell the roses." I am certainly not that person even now, but I think that it makes me even more eager to move on to doing what I want to do, as opposed to what I have convinced myself I have to do. [[In truth, my family unit is already FI if we were to move to a LCOL area, but I know that I would prefer to be retired in the HCOL area were we live currently. Hence I have made the Faustian bargain to keep working...]]

Laura33

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1116
  • Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #116 on: February 02, 2017, 07:29:23 PM »
With about 8 years to go, I vacillate between feeling like I am close to the end of my formal work life and feeling like it is practically forever until I am free. I have a countdown clock spreadsheet, but that may undermine my morale, even if it makes me feel more in charge. As we get closer to 2025, will the time seem to go faster or slower? Any thoughts?

This resonates with me -- I grew up ambitious, and there's always been another "thing" to push for, somewhere else I needed to prove myself.  And then all of that just started to fade away -- I hit a point where I realized I really didn't have anything else to prove, my stepdad died and work started to feel more meaningless, etc.  But the big shift came when we decided we were about 10 years out from calling it quits -- that made me realize I was probably at or close to my peak in my job, which meant there really wasn't much else to push for.  I mean, sure, I can work harder and earn more money, but money alone isn't an awesome motivator when I'm already making enough; I am feeling more like I want to carpe me some diem. 

The problem is that shifting my focus from work to after-work has created an ambition void, so work feels more like an aimless slog than something that engrosses me.  It sure seems to make the time go more slowly than it used to!

Your post really encapsulated a lot of my feelings, but expressed more completely. Thanks for sharing it. My dad died not too long ago, and I think that loss might be affecting me as well. He was a real workaholic who never paused to "smell the roses." I am certainly not that person even now, but I think that it makes me even more eager to move on to doing what I want to do, as opposed to what I have convinced myself I have to do. [[In truth, my family unit is already FI if we were to move to a LCOL area, but I know that I would prefer to be retired in the HCOL area were we live currently. Hence I have made the Faustian bargain to keep working...]]

Damn, man, are you my evil twin Skippy or something?  My stepdad also postponed retirement - he had just semi-retired and put in his SS paperwork, and died before collecting a cent.  He had his reasons, but for me, well, when you're already debating the value of continued work, that kind of event just kicks you in the gut and makes it all seem worth even less.  But, like you, we have a plan in mind, and quitting now requires sacrifices we're not willing to make.  So here I am, right where you are, burning time, not exactly "fulfilled," but not unhappy enough to change.
Laugh while you can, monkey-boy

manandsea

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 2
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #117 on: February 04, 2017, 09:24:05 PM »
sign me in. I have been lurking for a while. still trying to convince my wife about early retirement plan.
8 more years to go, woo-hoo.

OthalaFehu

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 72
    • OthalaFehu
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #118 on: February 19, 2017, 09:24:45 AM »
I am shooting for done at 50 in 2025. however, my youngest is currently only 7 years old which would put him at 15 so I may have to delay to get him at least off to college. Should have started either making babies or seeking FIRE earlier, but I did not know any better.
One Day a Rains will come and wash away all you see before you, through Othala kept the true. http://othalafehu.com

facepalm

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 98
  • Location: California
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #119 on: February 19, 2017, 06:21:13 PM »
I have calculated that 2025 will be the latest date I'll retire by. I'll have enough in both my 403(b) and 457(b), Roth, Schwab account, and my pension. I'm planning on living off just the pension until I have to start taking minimum distributions a few years out. I'll also qualify for Social Security, but won't take that 'till I'm age 70.

That is the latest date. Earliest is probably 2022. Sadly, it won't be early retirement as I have some catching up to do. But I am  saving at around 55% of gross, So it won't take that long.

Target for all non-pension funds is $850K.

Pension will be around $4700.00 per month. Can live off half of that. I also get an extra $1,000 per month from a supplemental account. SSI will be around $900, but at this point I'm not even thinking about it.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2017, 06:25:44 PM by facepalm »

frugalecon

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 389
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #120 on: February 23, 2017, 07:30:41 AM »
96 months...

mld

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 30
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #121 on: February 23, 2017, 10:07:01 AM »
Joining :)

We are aiming for 2025 (although Mister D thinks it will be more 2029 but numbers are looking good for 2025 maybe even sooner).

We currently have around 7x our expenses saved up + a fully paid mortgage :) and we save around 60% of our net income.
Our investments are part in our employer's pension plan, rental property and tax free investments (tfsas & rrsps comprised of index funds and etfs).

Some things will play in the balance of hitting our number like the possibility of one of us or both of us taking months off to spend school summer vacation with our 2 kiddoes once they hit school age.

dougules

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 841
  • Location: AL
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #122 on: February 23, 2017, 10:52:49 AM »

babystache89

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 26
  • Age: 28
  • Location: USA
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #123 on: February 24, 2017, 05:51:38 AM »
Tagging for now as I hope to fall in this cohort! Happy saving!

frugalecon

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 389
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #124 on: February 24, 2017, 06:31:14 AM »
96 months...

414 Mondays

And some of those Mondays are Federal holidays, and some I will be on vacation, and some I might even be sick...I calculate I have about 355 actual weeks of workdays, assuming I take no sick leave over the next eight years. That actually starts to seem manageable.

swashbucklinstache

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 110
  • Location: Midwest U.S.
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #125 on: February 24, 2017, 04:15:32 PM »
I have calculated that 2025 will be the latest date I'll retire by. I'll have enough in both my 403(b) and 457(b), Roth, Schwab account, and my pension. I'm planning on living off just the pension until I have to start taking minimum distributions a few years out. I'll also qualify for Social Security, but won't take that 'till I'm age 70.

That is the latest date. Earliest is probably 2022. Sadly, it won't be early retirement as I have some catching up to do. But I am  saving at around 55% of gross, So it won't take that long.

Target for all non-pension funds is $850K.

Pension will be around $4700.00 per month. Can live off half of that. I also get an extra $1,000 per month from a supplemental account. SSI will be around $900, but at this point I'm not even thinking about it.

Whoa... Your pension + supplemental + SSI = (4700+1000+900) * 12 = 79,200 a year. 4% of your non-pension 850k if you saw no growth before you started taking it would be 34,000, for a total of 113,200 annually with a lot of it annuit-ized. You say you can live off of 4700/2*12 = 28,200 a year. That's a lot of buffer! Is your pension or supplemental account uncertain? Lots of expensive fun travel or anything else planned? Sounds like you're in great shape, and will be worth many millions in the end if you choose to be.
hey hey

Savin' like i got a cape on

My journal: http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/me

warehouse

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 82
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #126 on: February 26, 2017, 10:04:01 AM »
When calculating your future net worth, what annual growth percentage do you use? ie. I assume an x% return annually until 2025 and it puts me at 25x my expenses.

I'm targeting 2024/2025 but not sure what growth percentage I should use to calculate out 8 years.

swashbucklinstache

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 110
  • Location: Midwest U.S.
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #127 on: February 26, 2017, 06:37:46 PM »
When calculating your future net worth, what annual growth percentage do you use? ie. I assume an x% return annually until 2025 and it puts me at 25x my expenses.

I'm targeting 2024/2025 but not sure what growth percentage I should use to calculate out 8 years.

Usually I use 6.7% for calculating real returns. I'm 100% stocks so that's a slightly low real rate of return historically. If you have a different mix, I'd use the historical return for that mix. Of course over an 8 year timeframe who knows!
hey hey

Savin' like i got a cape on

My journal: http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/me

dougules

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 841
  • Location: AL
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #128 on: February 27, 2017, 10:39:40 AM »
When calculating your future net worth, what annual growth percentage do you use? ie. I assume an x% return annually until 2025 and it puts me at 25x my expenses.

I'm targeting 2024/2025 but not sure what growth percentage I should use to calculate out 8 years.

Usually I use 6.7% for calculating real returns. I'm 100% stocks so that's a slightly low real rate of return historically. If you have a different mix, I'd use the historical return for that mix. Of course over an 8 year timeframe who knows!

I like to use the current CAPE, personally, but if you plug it into firecalc or cfiresim, you'll see it could be just about anything over the course of 8 years. 

hettie1

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 12
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #129 on: February 28, 2017, 01:07:09 PM »
Tagging to follow - hopefully 2025 is our FIRE year - I'll be 39 and DH 43.  Our original goal was to FIRE before he hit 45, so if we can make it this will be exciting!! :)

warehouse

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 82
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #130 on: February 28, 2017, 07:50:18 PM »
When calculating your future net worth, what annual growth percentage do you use? ie. I assume an x% return annually until 2025 and it puts me at 25x my expenses.

I'm targeting 2024/2025 but not sure what growth percentage I should use to calculate out 8 years.

Usually I use 6.7% for calculating real returns. I'm 100% stocks so that's a slightly low real rate of return historically. If you have a different mix, I'd use the historical return for that mix. Of course over an 8 year timeframe who knows!

I like to use the current CAPE, personally, but if you plug it into firecalc or cfiresim, you'll see it could be just about anything over the course of 8 years.

Thanks Swash!

Dougules- I just had to google what CAPE even meant! So somewhat off topic, I read a lot of stuff that says just invest in index funds and carry on and I also see a lot of articles that say the PE ratios indicate the market will be crashing any day. I sometimes wonder if I'm doing the right thing by squirreling so much money away (80% stock/ 20% bond). What if in 2025 I have even less than I have now? I just keep maxing out that 401k and hope for the best.

dougules

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 841
  • Location: AL
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #131 on: March 01, 2017, 03:24:48 PM »
I gotta say, I'm grateful to the suckers that are paying the active managers. We need at least a few people paying these snakes to make the market efficient. If the market was 100% passive, we'd have a problem. Glad that some other fool will do it, though, so I don't have to.

Does the average active manager know or do that much more than a lot of the folks here?  How many of them are going in depth meeting execs, touring operations, pouring through the books, and doing the same for the company's competition before they buy?  How many of them treat buying stocks like buying a company (because that's what it is)?  I'd prefer the ones that aren't doing that not to be involved in how the market is pricing stocks. 


When calculating your future net worth, what annual growth percentage do you use? ie. I assume an x% return annually until 2025 and it puts me at 25x my expenses.

I'm targeting 2024/2025 but not sure what growth percentage I should use to calculate out 8 years.

Usually I use 6.7% for calculating real returns. I'm 100% stocks so that's a slightly low real rate of return historically. If you have a different mix, I'd use the historical return for that mix. Of course over an 8 year timeframe who knows!

I like to use the current CAPE, personally, but if you plug it into firecalc or cfiresim, you'll see it could be just about anything over the course of 8 years.

Thanks Swash!

Dougules- I just had to google what CAPE even meant! So somewhat off topic, I read a lot of stuff that says just invest in index funds and carry on and I also see a lot of articles that say the PE ratios indicate the market will be crashing any day. I sometimes wonder if I'm doing the right thing by squirreling so much money away (80% stock/ 20% bond). What if in 2025 I have even less than I have now? I just keep maxing out that 401k and hope for the best.

I wouldn't pay any attention to what those articles are saying.  For every one that predicts a crash, there's another one that predicts a huge jump. 

I personally think the market is really high right now, but there are a few reasons you should ignore that and keep buying to your original plan.

Just because it's high doesn't mean it's going to crash.  Earnings and/or inflation may catch up instead. 

Then, what other investments would you buy instead?  When you look at the stock market in comparison to low interest rates and high real estate prices, it makes sense in context. 

Cash isn't good either because it's being eaten away by inflation, and you're losing out every day on profits.  My grandmother bought her house for $16k in 1962, so you can see what might happen if you stay in cash. 

If the market does go down, you haven't lost money (unless you sell).  Stocks aren't money.  They're a piece of a company, and you still have the same number of shares whatever the price of the day.  If you keep buying, you'll have way more shares in 2025 no matter what the dollar signs are on paper.  If those shares are worth less in 2025 you may have to stay in it a tad longer, but you'll be buying stocks on sale the whole time. 

swashbucklinstache

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 110
  • Location: Midwest U.S.
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #132 on: March 01, 2017, 04:57:54 PM »
I gotta say, I'm grateful to the suckers that are paying the active managers. We need at least a few people paying these snakes to make the market efficient. If the market was 100% passive, we'd have a problem. Glad that some other fool will do it, though, so I don't have to.

Does the average active manager know or do that much more than a lot of the folks here?  How many of them are going in depth meeting execs, touring operations, pouring through the books, and doing the same for the company's competition before they buy?  How many of them treat buying stocks like buying a company (because that's what it is)?  I'd prefer the ones that aren't doing that not to be involved in how the market is pricing stocks. 


When calculating your future net worth, what annual growth percentage do you use? ie. I assume an x% return annually until 2025 and it puts me at 25x my expenses.

I'm targeting 2024/2025 but not sure what growth percentage I should use to calculate out 8 years.

Usually I use 6.7% for calculating real returns. I'm 100% stocks so that's a slightly low real rate of return historically. If you have a different mix, I'd use the historical return for that mix. Of course over an 8 year timeframe who knows!

I like to use the current CAPE, personally, but if you plug it into firecalc or cfiresim, you'll see it could be just about anything over the course of 8 years.

Thanks Swash!

Dougules- I just had to google what CAPE even meant! So somewhat off topic, I read a lot of stuff that says just invest in index funds and carry on and I also see a lot of articles that say the PE ratios indicate the market will be crashing any day. I sometimes wonder if I'm doing the right thing by squirreling so much money away (80% stock/ 20% bond). What if in 2025 I have even less than I have now? I just keep maxing out that 401k and hope for the best.

I wouldn't pay any attention to what those articles are saying.  For every one that predicts a crash, there's another one that predicts a huge jump. 

I personally think the market is really high right now, but there are a few reasons you should ignore that and keep buying to your original plan.

Just because it's high doesn't mean it's going to crash.  Earnings and/or inflation may catch up instead. 

Then, what other investments would you buy instead?  When you look at the stock market in comparison to low interest rates and high real estate prices, it makes sense in context. 

Cash isn't good either because it's being eaten away by inflation, and you're losing out every day on profits.  My grandmother bought her house for $16k in 1962, so you can see what might happen if you stay in cash. 

If the market does go down, you haven't lost money (unless you sell).  Stocks aren't money.  They're a piece of a company, and you still have the same number of shares whatever the price of the day.  If you keep buying, you'll have way more shares in 2025 no matter what the dollar signs are on paper.  If those shares are worth less in 2025 you may have to stay in it a tad longer, but you'll be buying stocks on sale the whole time.

Also if your savings rate is high enough the market returns really just don't affect how fast you reach FI anyway. Now of course you should really care a lot about what the market will do over the next 50 years, not that you can predict it, but you shouldn't care too much about the next 8 years. That's under most circumstances. For a lot of people who have other factors affecting their choice of 2025 that may not be true.
hey hey

Savin' like i got a cape on

My journal: http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/me

Linda_Norway

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1410
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #133 on: March 02, 2017, 09:26:22 AM »
I should be joining this thread. My goal is to FIRE In 6 to 7 years from now when I am 50 and my DH 53. This depends on how much we'll manage to save in the next years. My husband also thinks that it is a good idea to keep making some money, a fraction of what we make now, just to have an extra helping buffer.

Current situation:
No debt of any kind.
House worth 8 mil NOK (Norwegian Crowns).
Holiday cabin worth 1 mil NOK.
Stash in index funds approx 1,2 mil NOK.
Pension funds saved up by our jobs, can start to pay out when we reach 67 or 62.
State allowance for pensioners, can start to pay out when we reach 67 or 62.

The pensions and state allowance are enough to live of already. So we'll only need to cover the years between 50/63 and 67. We don't count on getting pensions from 62 yet. That is 17 years. We have calculated that we need to move to a much cheaper house in a much cheaper region. This would free up 4 to 5 mil NOK. Our goal is to have 10 mil NOK in free assets and a paid down place to live in.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2017, 12:34:51 AM by Linda_Norway »

new mustache city

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 25
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #134 on: March 02, 2017, 11:11:24 AM »
Hello fellow 2025 FIREers.

I'm 30 years old and I just passed $100,000 net worth at the end of December. If nothing changes in the next 96 months, that will have grown to $675,000 and I'll be financially independent.

Hopefully in the meantime I can increase my earnings and savings but for now I'm shooting for early 2025 at age 38.

dougules

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 841
  • Location: AL
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #135 on: March 02, 2017, 11:50:07 AM »
I should be joining this thread. My goal is to FIRE In 6 to 7 years from now when I am 50 and my DH 53.. This depends on how much we'll manage to save in the next years. My husband also thinks that it is a good idea to keep making some money, a fraction of what we make now, just to have an extra helping buffer.

Current situation:
No debt of any kind.
House worth 8 mil NOK.
Holiday cabin worth 1 mil NOK.
Stash in index funds approx 1,2 mil NOK.
Pensions funds saved up by our jobs, can start to pay out when we reach 67 or 62.
State allowance for pensioners, can start to pay out when we reach 67 or 62.

Then pensions and state allowance are enough to live of already. So we'll only need to cover the years between 50/63 and 67. We don't count on getting pensions from 62 yet. That is 17 years. We have calculated that we need to move to a much cheaper house in a much cheaper region. This would free up 4 to 5 mil NOK. Our goal is to have 10 mil NOK in free assets and a paid down place to live in.

Those numbers made my eyes pop before I realized NOK meant kroner. 

Linda_Norway

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1410
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #136 on: March 03, 2017, 12:34:17 AM »
Those numbers made my eyes pop before I realized NOK meant kroner.

I edited it to make it clearer.

The Norwegian crown/US dollar course is so varying over the years that I decided not to try and convert it. It wouldn't make sense either, because cost of living in the 2 countries is so different and not comparable.

tarheeldan

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 674
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #137 on: March 03, 2017, 05:50:19 AM »
Joining! Might do the Peace Corp or downshift and work a couple years in the non-profit sector starting in 2023 but definitely looking to FIRE by 2025 as I'll be 40. Time flies!

Need2Save

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 151
    • Visit us at our Blog
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #138 on: March 24, 2017, 11:20:40 AM »
I'm sorry to break up with you fine people but it's looking like we will probably be more in the 2024 (or even 2023) cohort.

I'll still stop by to see what progress you are making.  Best of luck to all of you! 

2Birds1Stone

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3001
  • Age: 30
  • Location: New York
  • CFO
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #139 on: March 24, 2017, 11:37:01 AM »
I'm sorry to break up with you fine people but it's looking like we will probably be more in the 2024 (or even 2023) cohort.

I'll still stop by to see what progress you are making.  Best of luck to all of you!

What changed?
"A small house can hold as much happiness as a big one." - Fortune Cookie

33 Months till FIRE - Stop by, or stay a while.....
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/fire-by-thirty-five-chronicles-36-months-till-sabbatical!/

Need2Save

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 151
    • Visit us at our Blog
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #140 on: March 24, 2017, 01:56:15 PM »
I'm sorry to break up with you fine people but it's looking like we will probably be more in the 2024 (or even 2023) cohort.

I'll still stop by to see what progress you are making.  Best of luck to all of you!

What changed?

Well, a few small things that add up to a big change - I guess:

  • We figured out a way to pay a small amount more additional towards our mortgage to pay it off approximately 5/6 months sooner than planned.  I know - many opinions on the mortgage, but this is one of our 3 primary goals and does not make the other 2 primary goals suffer at all.
  • One of our sons may not be pursuing college now, so we've decided to redirect those savings to our retirement fund instead. Even after helping him get established with a vocation trade/type career path - it seems that we will not need all the money we thought we would need for two college educations.
  • We have continued to earn pretty handsome annual bonuses and as long as those keep up, it will accelerate our savings pretty nicely.
  • The biggest of all, is just revisiting some of our assumptions for growth, inflation, and our real spending needs in retirement.  We were sort of just losely using ballpark figures, but the closer we look at it, the less we think we will need - even with uncertain healthcare expenses and excessive travel plans ahead for us. 

I guess overall, we are just feeling more confident that we can do it sooner.  2024 for sure, 2023 maybe if we stay focused and things continue to go well. We continue to use around $60,000 in today's dollars for annual spending needs as a reference point (higher for many here, but lower than many others as well). We do also live in a HCOL but plan to leave this area as well in retirement. 

Laura33

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1116
  • Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #141 on: March 24, 2017, 01:59:57 PM »
I'm sorry to break up with you fine people but it's looking like we will probably be more in the 2024 (or even 2023) cohort.

I'll still stop by to see what progress you are making.  Best of luck to all of you!

What changed?

Well, a few small things that add up to a big change - I guess:

  • We figured out a way to pay a small amount more additional towards our mortgage to pay it off approximately 5/6 months sooner than planned.  I know - many opinions on the mortgage, but this is one of our 3 primary goals and does not make the other 2 primary goals suffer at all.
  • One of our sons may not be pursuing college now, so we've decided to redirect those savings to our retirement fund instead. Even after helping him get established with a vocation trade/type career path - it seems that we will not need all the money we thought we would need for two college educations.
  • We have continued to earn pretty handsome annual bonuses and as long as those keep up, it will accelerate our savings pretty nicely.
  • The biggest of all, is just revisiting some of our assumptions for growth, inflation, and our real spending needs in retirement.  We were sort of just losely using ballpark figures, but the closer we look at it, the less we think we will need - even with uncertain healthcare expenses and excessive travel plans ahead for us. 

I guess overall, we are just feeling more confident that we can do it sooner.  2024 for sure, 2023 maybe if we stay focused and things continue to go well. We continue to use around $60,000 in today's dollars for annual spending needs as a reference point (higher for many here, but lower than many others as well). We do also live in a HCOL but plan to leave this area as well in retirement.

This is great news -- congrats!  And hey, at least you're leaving us in the right direction.  :-)
Laugh while you can, monkey-boy

Need2Save

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 151
    • Visit us at our Blog
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #142 on: March 24, 2017, 02:04:08 PM »
Well thank you, Laura33! I hope some of you may someday join me on the 2024 (or 2023) acceleration train.

clarkfan1979

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1467
  • Age: 38
  • Location: Kauai & Denver
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #143 on: March 24, 2017, 08:53:29 PM »
We should be there by 2025 with a total net worth of 1 million. I will be 45 and my wife will be 41.

Icecreamarsenal

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 457
  • Location: New Jersey
  • Set me free
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #144 on: March 25, 2017, 08:12:32 AM »
Well thank you, Laura33! I hope some of you may someday join me on the 2024 (or 2023) acceleration train.
It's not you, it's me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

TomTX

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2557
  • Location: Texas
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #145 on: March 25, 2017, 09:11:44 PM »
While our current base plan has been to FIRE in 2027 when I can first draw a pension at ~50% of salary + good paid medical insurance for me, half paid for family.

I'd really like to push that forward and join 2025. The pension is rather punitive in that regard though: If I stop working in 2025, the earliest I could draw the pension and get the medical benefits would be 2031. Also, instead of counting as "time served" for pension payout, accrued leave time is simply ignored if you quit before you can draw the pension.

Effectively, if I want to retire 2 years earlier, I need to replace the pension + medical for 6 years, and the pension will have a lower payout in perpetuity.
Credit card signup bonuses:

$150 bonus on $500 spend for Chase Freedom:
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/2/MU4TDQ1N3K

$50 bonus (no min spend, just use it once) plus double all cash back at the end of 1 year for Discover, including the initial $50:
https://refer.discover.com/s/37e3u

$500 bonus on $4,000 spend for Chase Sapphire Preferred:
https://www.referyourchasecard.com/6/Z8JIP66H7G

facepalm

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 98
  • Location: California
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #146 on: April 02, 2017, 11:47:33 AM »
96 months...

414 Mondays

Haha! But I prefer to view it as 414 Fridays.

Just checked some of my figures and realized I'm actually at a 71% savings rate, not counting employer match. I also think that my calculation for what i will have in my 403/457 might be a bit off, so Im going to revise it downward to about 25x yearly expenses, or 550K. That is essentially all my projected savings without any appreciation.

My biggest concerns in retirement (other than what to do with the money) are taxes and health care. Will definitely be buying a house when I retire, and looking to move out of state. I live in one of the most expensive housing markets in CA, plus CA taxes are not that great.  Am also getting very serious about my health. I'm overweight, which is a negative indicator for all sorts of health issues.

I still like my job and have plenty to work on. Hopefully, I'll break 6 figures in a few years.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2017, 11:50:02 AM by facepalm »

wienerdog

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 407
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #147 on: April 02, 2017, 05:21:32 PM »

My biggest concerns in retirement (other than what to do with the money) are taxes and health care. Will definitely be buying a house when I retire, and looking to move out of state. I live in one of the most expensive housing markets in CA, plus CA taxes are not that great.  Am also getting very serious about my health. I'm overweight, which is a negative indicator for all sorts of health issues.


Healthcare is something I think about also.  I like you am overweight and was starting to notice shortness of breath on easy stair climbs while carrying luggage but carrying 50 extra pounds on me explains it.  I found Vinnie Tortorich on a podcast and decide to go that direction.  Couldn't be happier with his method NSNG (No Sugar No Grain).  I have lost 29 lbs since Dec and my goal is to get to 190 lbs (50lb loss total).  The best thing about his method is you are never hungry and it is easy once you get the hang of it.  I have done all that without exercise so far.  I am going to try to start doing something steady this summer to get my health even better.

On topic I am close to moving into the 2024 category but I will stay here for now.  Using a 4% withdraw rate and 6% return rate I am in Feb 2025.  Was much deeper in 2025 before so I hope that trend keeps up.

mld

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 30
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #148 on: April 03, 2017, 10:31:03 AM »
I'm sorry to break up with you fine people but it's looking like we will probably be more in the 2024 (or even 2023) cohort.

I'll still stop by to see what progress you are making.  Best of luck to all of you!

So happy for you! Here's hoping things continue moving in the right direction for you so that 2024 is only a rebound and you end up settling for 2023 ;).

dougules

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 841
  • Location: AL
Re: 2025 Fire Cohort
« Reply #149 on: April 03, 2017, 10:46:39 AM »
96 months...

414 Mondays

Haha! But I prefer to view it as 414 Fridays.

Just checked some of my figures and realized I'm actually at a 71% savings rate, not counting employer match. I also think that my calculation for what i will have in my 403/457 might be a bit off, so Im going to revise it downward to about 25x yearly expenses, or 550K. That is essentially all my projected savings without any appreciation.

My biggest concerns in retirement (other than what to do with the money) are taxes and health care. Will definitely be buying a house when I retire, and looking to move out of state. I live in one of the most expensive housing markets in CA, plus CA taxes are not that great.  Am also getting very serious about my health. I'm overweight, which is a negative indicator for all sorts of health issues.

I still like my job and have plenty to work on. Hopefully, I'll break 6 figures in a few years.

I just see it as much better to see a Monday gone than a Friday gone.  We're 409 today.