For my part, the outlook continues very cloudy. Positives and negatives towards a 2023 FIRE keep rolling in.
I am continuing on my preFire punchlist, with some satisfaction that although I don't know how long the path is.....I am at least on the last leg of it. 1 -2 -3 MY notwithstanding, there aren't a lot of big decisions/job changes/etc to negotiate. No matter what I may decide to do about anything - I am nearing the finish line! :) A few serious US or global issues could derail that - but those are on the scale of would derail anyone at anypont in their FIRE so not something that can be fit into my equations until they actual happen or at least start to unfold.
On the positive side, I have enough in my current employers 401k to make it to 59.5 on my Fatfire budget, Yay!! I always needed this to be in place for FIRE as I have limited funds outside of retirement accounts (I am beefing those up now, but won't have an appreciable amount by May 23). Caveates are that it covers expenses with no growth or decimation, and it is in mostly stocks, so - could go either way. I would hope for some nominal growth with this pot and try to make it last longer if I could. While the market has bounced back off its lows the past month or so, the unfortunate side of this account reaching this point is the subtraction of months to fund rather than growth.
On the negative, I scrutinized the plan documents and there are no provistions for withdrawls using the rule of 55, doesn't mean it doesn't exist but the possibility that I may have to lump sum it to avoid penalties exists. I have toyed with emailing the benefits rep about this, but am hesitant to draw attention to myself as someone who may be considering retirement in the next year or so.
The money I can access at 59.5 is not in good enough shape for the long haul. When I originally signed up for the 2023 was modeling the usual and expected average growth to make the FIRE number and obviously - that did not pan out in the markets!! I am not at 4% right now, nor very much near it (combining everything, including the current 401k used to get to 59.5). I am ok with FIRE at or near 4% of investable assets as eventually social security will come into play and I can claim it whenever after 62. Would try to put off for higher monthly benefit if that makes sense depending on market at the time. Also eventually the mortgage would be paid off, so depending on where the market seems by my May date for FIRE - and other economic things such as inflation, I may just take the plunge anyway if it is at 5%. Any higher, will need to assess a few things.
Today - I am filing retirement at my stated day of May 31, 2023 as unlikely - but still possible.
Worst cases to be in!! So being grateful for where I'm at, regardless of when I actually FIRE.
I am continuing to try to shape my job to be less intense, less stress, fewer hours, and will continue those efforts JIC I will be here for a while :)
