I am torn between taking a 6-12 month sabbatical in 2020 and working a bit past 2022, or just toughing it out and FIREing for good in 2022.
2B1S, we've discussed this stuff before, I'm sure you are aware my thought processes are mirroring yours. I've really been able to break this down to a couple of possibilities of concern.
- I grind it out until full FIRE, end up miserable the last 3-4 years because I'm so burnt out, maybe even OMY for safety. A year afterwards, I start craving something about work and go back, at least part time.
- I take a sabbatical and absolutely love it soo much, I find it near impossible to work for money ever again.
Here's my solution. I'm taking my month off soon, it should invigorate me, but I doubt it'll be a good test of true FIRE. 2017 is the year of lifestyle buy-in costs. I'm making some purchases I've delayed which will support the mobile lifestyle I intend to partake in after FIRE. In many ways I've used this lifestyle as a means to increase income and reduce costs already, so I am going all-in. From a web-of-goals standpoint it'll payoff no matter when I FIRE, Semi-FIRE, or whatever. 2018 is the year of absolute minimized costs. I am going to see what my true bare minimum cash flow needs are in this lifestyle. Once established, I have a real world baseline. It's highly doubtful I can ERE-it, but something in the realm of sub-18k is probably possible... we shall see!
After 2018 I intend to accumulate until I'm at 20X absolute baseline. This may be in 2019, depending on how low I can go. Then I'm done. I will keep my professional license, which will require maybe 100 hrs of paid work per year, but that's it, no more unless I truly want it without money as a consideration. After a year or two, if # 1 happens, great, at least I didn't go overboard and waste years reaching some imaginary level of enough. If #2 happens, it's OK. I have enough FU money not to worry. If not working is REALLY that important 10 years later, I can find a way to make it happen. Besides, returns may be better than the 3.5% real needed to hold me over until SS with 20X. I'm also transitioning my investments to post-FIRE allocations with new contributions.
My guess is I will end somewhere between the two. PT or intermittent FT professional work, or maybe just low-wage, stress free work for "social" reasons.
I'm not too concerned with health care...
Let me me Strawman respond, "OMG, Classical_Liberal you MUST be F'en crazy!"
Maybe I am Mr. Strawman, but here are my thoughts. Even if ACA and any or all federal subsidies go away, I still believe most states will have options for low-income folks, they did before ACA, why wouldn't they after? If I get sick and my premiums skyrocket, I'll play a geographic arbitrage game, if needed, to find affordable coverage. After all, mobility has been part of my FIRE plan all along. I'm not sitting my life out, waiting for some politician to do her/his job. Frankly, if I really take care of myself, odds getting a non-lifestyle related chronic illness too many years before medicare are less likely than being healthy (I've tried researching it, but its too complex to know real real stats). I'm gonna actively play the odds, hope for the best and make changes if the worst happens.
I feel a weight has been lifted now that I have a true plan; this whole thing suddenly seems real.