Author Topic: 2022 FIRE cohort  (Read 196201 times)

Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #550 on: June 21, 2019, 07:31:25 PM »
I'll be FIREing at 40 with allowing myself the option of working if/when I want to. That inherently has it's own flexibility.

Just to stay on the soapbox for one more point.  Spending at levels like yours, 20K yr per adult, makes this a completely different beast than someone spending 40 or 50K per person.  Without the frugality portion of FIRE, an increasing large number of human activities become "not worth it" from a financial perspective.  In your situation 10K a year of fun income (5K per person) literally cuts your WR by a third.  For a 100K DINK household it wouldn't even cover the BMW insurance and maintenance.  So the motivation to do it is MUCH lower.  This is bad, for many reasons, not just financial. Life is about doing things of value, and that generally ends up in compensation, monetary or otherwise.

The other argument I always hear is "my budget has more fat to trim than a frugal person".  This is complete bullshit!  While accumulating, if someone wasn't willing to cut out that fat to earn freedom sooner, then why on god's green earth would someone think they are MORE likely to do it after RE?  No!  This person already decided luxury was more important than freedom in accumulation.  Their personal concept of marginal utility for the extra spending is much more fixed than someone who choose to cut the fat throughout the journey.  The lower budget FIRE'e has already placed much more value on their freedom, hence will always be more willing to make things work, even if that means tightening the belt more. Our choices have "stickiness", whether we want to believe that or not.

RWD

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #551 on: June 21, 2019, 09:31:47 PM »
Classical_Liberal is right. If you look at my numbers it gives a spending of $40k. 25% of that is via rental income. I'll be FIREing at 40 with allowing myself the option of working if/when I want to. That inherently has it's own flexibility. Only 75% of the income needed for FIRE is at the 5% SWR so an even smaller amount of what I need to live on is exposed to the risks that SWRs are exposed to, namely sequence of returns. For certain the remaining rental income is subject to a variety of other risks as well but I have things in place to either mitigate or I just straight up accept those risks and will deal with them when/if they happen.

I could in theory save forever in order to mitigate any risk possible. But then I'd never FIRE. I'm accepting 5%. I refuse to accept that once you FIRE you can never work again or earn money again. That's a bullshit narrow way to view it.

I entered your numbers into cFIREsim because I was curious. 600k (75/25 stock/bond split) with 10k additional income (inflation adjusted) will last 30 years 85% of the time. Seems reasonable with the option to earn some more later. $700k (one more year of work?) brings the success rate up to 96%. $770k is 100%.

londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #552 on: June 21, 2019, 10:13:10 PM »
I'm going to throw my hat in this ring as I've watched the projections condense over the years. It should be early 2022, I may creep into late 2021 but I'm okay with joining this crowd.

Current status - $365k

Goal - $600k @ 5% SWR and a $10k-$9k/yr real estate income buffer giving an income of around $40k/year. With any sort of fun income doing "other" stuff.

With returns and contributions we (my wife and I DINKing it up) we can add about $100k per year to our stash.

I look forward to the journey.

5% is aggressive imho. If I were you, I would also assess whether a 3-3.5% SWR still buys you and your wife the lifestyle you want.

5% is fine as long as you're young and still plan to provide some type of value to the world in your retirement (or older with some type of pension/SS kicking in to lower WR).  While doing whatever it is you do to provide that value, over the years, tons of serendipitous opportunities will arise.  As long as you enter the situation knowing you'll probably need to take advantage of some of them, all will end well.  This isn't blind optimism, it's from looking at plenty of case studies.  Plus your overall spending is relatively low. Folks who spent six figures have a much harder time offsetting cash outflows with opportunities, hence have a bunch more to worry about in this realm.

If goal is to sit on couch and play video games interspersed with laying on the beach, then @londonbanker is right.  You just need to be honest with yourself wrt which way you are likely to go, based on personal history and personality.

Well I assumed that his goal was to FIRE ( said topic of this particular thread) and not PT work / going back to work to earn / replenish his stash. If going back to work after a long sabbatical is the goal, then why wait... do it now.
Otherwise 5% is NOT safe. Please provide some evidence of “plenty of case studies”, as recent factual analysis is actually even challenging a 4% SWR, suggesting 3.5% might be the new 4%.

This type of closed minded thinking through the financial world is why this forum originally thrived. Now it's a victim of it's own success and we get your refrain, over and over.  I'm simply a voice attempting to hold true to the original message of the FIRE through frugality movement.

For case studies see MMM, Financial Samurai, ERE, Mad FIentist, Living a FI.  Basically all the OG's of FIRE through frugality movement.  Then move on to the journals here and at other sites, you'll find hundreds.

Classical_Liberal is right. If you look at my numbers it gives a spending of $40k. 25% of that is via rental income. I'll be FIREing at 40 with allowing myself the option of working if/when I want to. That inherently has it's own flexibility. Only 75% of the income needed for FIRE is at the 5% SWR so an even smaller amount of what I need to live on is exposed to the risks that SWRs are exposed to, namely sequence of returns. For certain the remaining rental income is subject to a variety of other risks as well but I have things in place to either mitigate or I just straight up accept those risks and will deal with them when/if they happen.

I could in theory save forever in order to mitigate any risk possible. But then I'd never FIRE. I'm accepting 5%. I refuse to accept that once you FIRE you can never work again or earn money again. That's a bullshit narrow way to view it.

If you read your original post you were looking for opinions on your case. Given your latest statement “bullshit narrow view”, it looks like you werent really looking for objective opinions, but rather validation of what you wanted to believe. That’s fine, but don’t call someone else’s opinion a “bullshit narrow view”... If you re-read my post with your “open minded not so narrow view” glasses, you will notice that I was merely challenging the fact that a 5% WR wasn’t buying you a safe FIRE as pointed out by RWD.
Given you had provided no details around your flexibility to go back to work, your age, whether you wanted kids or any other relevant details, also effectively asking how long was a piece of string. I am sure you will understand that someone being nice enough to take some time to offer an opinion when solicited doesn’t deserve your defensiveness; it’s just a lack of manners / education.

Anyway good to see that the flaming of anybody sharing a different view on this forum is still very much alive and kicking!! The need of extremist believers is always an important part of a good cause.

Good luck with your semi RE

londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #553 on: June 21, 2019, 10:23:35 PM »
I'm going to throw my hat in this ring as I've watched the projections condense over the years. It should be early 2022, I may creep into late 2021 but I'm okay with joining this crowd.

Current status - $365k

Goal - $600k @ 5% SWR and a $10k-$9k/yr real estate income buffer giving an income of around $40k/year. With any sort of fun income doing "other" stuff.

With returns and contributions we (my wife and I DINKing it up) we can add about $100k per year to our stash.

I look forward to the journey.

5% is aggressive imho. If I were you, I would also assess whether a 3-3.5% SWR still buys you and your wife the lifestyle you want.

5% is fine as long as you're young and still plan to provide some type of value to the world in your retirement (or older with some type of pension/SS kicking in to lower WR).  While doing whatever it is you do to provide that value, over the years, tons of serendipitous opportunities will arise.  As long as you enter the situation knowing you'll probably need to take advantage of some of them, all will end well.  This isn't blind optimism, it's from looking at plenty of case studies.  Plus your overall spending is relatively low. Folks who spent six figures have a much harder time offsetting cash outflows with opportunities, hence have a bunch more to worry about in this realm.

If goal is to sit on couch and play video games interspersed with laying on the beach, then @londonbanker is right.  You just need to be honest with yourself wrt which way you are likely to go, based on personal history and personality.

Well I assumed that his goal was to FIRE ( said topic of this particular thread) and not PT work / going back to work to earn / replenish his stash. If going back to work after a long sabbatical is the goal, then why wait... do it now.
Otherwise 5% is NOT safe. Please provide some evidence of “plenty of case studies”, as recent factual analysis is actually even challenging a 4% SWR, suggesting 3.5% might be the new 4%.

This type of closed minded thinking through the financial world is why this forum originally thrived. Now it's a victim of it's own success and we get your refrain, over and over.  I'm simply a voice attempting to hold true to the original message of the FIRE through frugality movement.

For case studies see MMM, Financial Samurai, ERE, Mad FIentist, Living a FI.  Basically all the OG's of FIRE through frugality movement.  Then move on to the journals here and at other sites, you'll find hundreds.

Please help me understand how many of those anecdotal case studies originated in the bull market run that started 10years ago... hardly evidence of a reliable financial model IMHO. I personally like to believe that FIRECalc is a tiny bit more robust data wise, but that’s just me.

I also love the fact that Financial Samurai- which you seem to use as a credible reference - just published a new article called “why $5m is barely enough to retire as a family”. That must surely and clearly show a narrow minded view from his side, right?? All joking aside, I hope he’s wrong as I don’t intend to hit 5m prior to FIRE.

londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #554 on: June 21, 2019, 10:26:58 PM »
Classical_Liberal is right. If you look at my numbers it gives a spending of $40k. 25% of that is via rental income. I'll be FIREing at 40 with allowing myself the option of working if/when I want to. That inherently has it's own flexibility. Only 75% of the income needed for FIRE is at the 5% SWR so an even smaller amount of what I need to live on is exposed to the risks that SWRs are exposed to, namely sequence of returns. For certain the remaining rental income is subject to a variety of other risks as well but I have things in place to either mitigate or I just straight up accept those risks and will deal with them when/if they happen.

I could in theory save forever in order to mitigate any risk possible. But then I'd never FIRE. I'm accepting 5%. I refuse to accept that once you FIRE you can never work again or earn money again. That's a bullshit narrow way to view it.

I entered your numbers into cFIREsim because I was curious. 600k (75/25 stock/bond split) with 10k additional income (inflation adjusted) will last 30 years 85% of the time. Seems reasonable with the option to earn some more later. $700k (one more year of work?) brings the success rate up to 96%. $770k is 100%.

You’re way too pragmatic...! I can already smell kerosene coming your way LOL

matchewed

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #555 on: June 22, 2019, 06:32:06 AM »
Classical_Liberal is right. If you look at my numbers it gives a spending of $40k. 25% of that is via rental income. I'll be FIREing at 40 with allowing myself the option of working if/when I want to. That inherently has it's own flexibility. Only 75% of the income needed for FIRE is at the 5% SWR so an even smaller amount of what I need to live on is exposed to the risks that SWRs are exposed to, namely sequence of returns. For certain the remaining rental income is subject to a variety of other risks as well but I have things in place to either mitigate or I just straight up accept those risks and will deal with them when/if they happen.

I could in theory save forever in order to mitigate any risk possible. But then I'd never FIRE. I'm accepting 5%. I refuse to accept that once you FIRE you can never work again or earn money again. That's a bullshit narrow way to view it.

I entered your numbers into cFIREsim because I was curious. 600k (75/25 stock/bond split) with 10k additional income (inflation adjusted) will last 30 years 85% of the time. Seems reasonable with the option to earn some more later. $700k (one more year of work?) brings the success rate up to 96%. $770k is 100%.

Yeah, I also factor in with cFIREsim social security for two adults (@ 70% of what I currently calculate). And the sale of RE at some point in the future (oddly enough coinciding with social security). Those two factors have made that 85% to 98% and any SWR rate below that much more safe.

The decision of 5% is not done blindly to anyone reading and have concerns. It is deliberate.

londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #556 on: June 22, 2019, 08:27:42 AM »
The decision of 5% is not done blindly to anyone reading and have concerns. It is deliberate.
Now that makes sense to me

freya

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #557 on: June 23, 2019, 07:52:49 AM »
Financial Samurai's site just dropped in my estimation, after reading that "you need $5M to retire" article.  The article reveals mainly a striking ignorance of even basic finances.

A few highlights of the assumptions:

1. When withdrawing from taxable savings, 100% of the money is considered to be taxed as income, every year.  Has the writer never heard of "cost basis"?  Or tax-reduction strategies which would reduce their federal tax bill to zero in most years?

2. $24K annually into 529 plans for one 8 month old child living in California with access to high quality, inexpensive state universities.  BTW since this is transferring from one savings pot to another, you could argue that this isn't an expense (yet).  And probably not smart to sell a highly appreciated asset in order to make the contribution, except maybe in the first few years.

3.  The budget includes things like child care (!), children's swim lessons and gym lessons, and Sports Club membership.  If two non-working people can't take care of one 8 month old and teach him/her how to swim then what is it they plan to do all day?

4. $1800 in groceries for a family of 3 along with "child snacks" in a separate category, which includes deliveries "to save time".  Save time for what?

5. $1.3 million house, a rather unlikely purchase by a couple intent on early retirement.

6. Life insurance.  Wow this is really failing the IQ test.

Whew I feel better now about my modest $1.3 million goal to retire in New York City! - on what I thought was a quite generous budget.


cloudsail

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #558 on: June 23, 2019, 09:51:51 AM »
The best part is they supposedly get food delivery in order to save 1-2 hours cooking time to spend with their child, then pay 10 hrs/week childcare to get away from her! LOL

I don't know any stay at home parent who needs 10 hours a week away from their child in order to stay sane.

londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #559 on: June 23, 2019, 04:00:15 PM »
The best part is they supposedly get food delivery in order to save 1-2 hours cooking time to spend with their child, then pay 10 hrs/week childcare to get away from her! LOL

I don't know any stay at home parent who needs 10 hours a week away from their child in order to stay sane.

Have you considered that those parents may want their child to go to childcare in order to socialise with other kids without their parents around, and not spending that money to “get away from their child to stay sane”

Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #560 on: June 23, 2019, 04:40:43 PM »
Financial Samurai's site just dropped in my estimation, after reading that "you need $5M to retire" article.  The article reveals mainly a striking ignorance of even basic finances.

Yeah, I used FS as an example, not because of his frugality.  Rather, he is just one more in a line of people that saved a S-ton of moeny and still got plugged back into the economy.  If you read his earlier stuff, the lead up to this lifestyle, it seems to me (I do not know the guy, just one persons opinion), that he is using needing more money as an excuse to go back to work.  Like he's justifying the fact he misses it and wants some time away from the fam using the monetary angle. IMO he is a poster child for the over-saving, high income FIRE'e, and he's still working again.

tl;dr my entire three post rant.
If the average person here just realized they are not so different than all of those before us, that we will likely crave some paid work in the future, then it follows that a 3.5% SWR is very much overkill.  Not from a pure Maths perspective, but from a reality check perspective.  Hence I think it unwise to poo poo peoples plans that are probably more in line with reality. 
« Last Edit: June 23, 2019, 04:42:36 PM by Classical_Liberal »

cloudsail

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #561 on: June 23, 2019, 07:24:15 PM »
The best part is they supposedly get food delivery in order to save 1-2 hours cooking time to spend with their child, then pay 10 hrs/week childcare to get away from her! LOL

I don't know any stay at home parent who needs 10 hours a week away from their child in order to stay sane.

Have you considered that those parents may want their child to go to childcare in order to socialise with other kids without their parents around, and not spending that money to “get away from their child to stay sane”

If you read the article, they say specifically that they hire childcare at $22/hr in order to have time to themselves.
Quote
The 10 hours a week of childcare assistance is extremely important so J&L can keep their sanity. 
Their daughter is 8 months, so it's not about socialising (and that price is clearly private babysitter). It's totally reasonable to put your child in preschool for a couple years before school, but then it needn't cost that much.

Also, swimming lessons at 8 months baffles me. They actually pitch it as a survival necessity, as in drowning is a high hazard for kids. They expect their 8 month old to learn water safety and how to swim??
« Last Edit: June 23, 2019, 07:27:17 PM by cloudsail »

cloudsail

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #562 on: June 23, 2019, 08:47:08 PM »
The $5M case study couple is actually a great example of the high income high spending FIREe. They got to FI by having very high incomes, not through being frugal, and are already used to the luxuries and conveniences that come with it. In a way, we are similar to them, but we don't spend quite as much, and I am acutely aware of the items in our budget that are luxury vs. necessity.

nereo

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #563 on: June 24, 2019, 06:43:27 AM »
The best part is they supposedly get food delivery in order to save 1-2 hours cooking time to spend with their child, then pay 10 hrs/week childcare to get away from her! LOL

I don't know any stay at home parent who needs 10 hours a week away from their child in order to stay sane.

Have you considered that those parents may want their child to go to childcare in order to socialise with other kids without their parents around, and not spending that money to “get away from their child to stay sane”

If you read the article, they say specifically that they hire childcare at $22/hr in order to have time to themselves.
Quote
The 10 hours a week of childcare assistance is extremely important so J&L can keep their sanity. 
Their daughter is 8 months, so it's not about socialising (and that price is clearly private babysitter). It's totally reasonable to put your child in preschool for a couple years before school, but then it needn't cost that much.

Also, swimming lessons at 8 months baffles me. They actually pitch it as a survival necessity, as in drowning is a high hazard for kids. They expect their 8 month old to learn water safety and how to swim??

Regarding the swimming - we started swim lessons with our daughter at 5 months (and would have started at 4 had she not been sick at the time). At that age it's more about being comfortable in the water than anything. I was a water safety instructor (WSI) myself, and if you get the kids 'swimming' before age 9-12 months (varies from kid to kid) they typically take immediately to the water.  Toddlers who are introduced to the water for the first time typically have a lot of fear, and it can take weeks just to get them to put their face in the water, blow bubbles, go underwater, let alone float/swim.  Kids who are in teh water before they can walk generally don't have those problems, and are way ahead in skills by the time they are two.
At age 10 months she's certainly not swimming on her own, but she can climb (crawl) out of the pool on her own, go underwater without panicking and float with support. 

We put our child inot daycare 2x/week starting at 6 months, mostly for socializing (both with other children, but also to be around other caretakers.  At first it was more about her being comfortable with other people, but pretty soon (month ~7) she started interacting with the other infants.  Now (age 10 months) she's developing 'friends' - other babies she recognizes and 'plays' with (play being a lot of crawling over/over/with another baby, and a lot of throwing of toys). There's definitely recognition going on.

highlandterrier

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #564 on: June 24, 2019, 07:08:23 AM »
Sign me up, aiming for July 2022, was swithering between here and 2023 but decided to be positive. Realistically a major global or personal crisis would only delay for a year as only require modest growth as have reasonably high savings rate, and a cautious asset allocation for the cash required in the next few years.

We'll be 48 then and need to have a pot of cash to see through until around 57-60, as the Pension laws in the UK will prevent access until around then. Which leaves the headache of asset allocation for funds required over a 10-13 year period. Cannot risk too much as little time for markets to recover, but reluctant to take no risk as feels wasteful.

If anyone has a crystal ball let me know!

cloudsail

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #565 on: June 24, 2019, 10:47:01 AM »
Regarding the swimming - we started swim lessons with our daughter at 5 months (and would have started at 4 had she not been sick at the time). At that age it's more about being comfortable in the water than anything. I was a water safety instructor (WSI) myself, and if you get the kids 'swimming' before age 9-12 months (varies from kid to kid) they typically take immediately to the water.  Toddlers who are introduced to the water for the first time typically have a lot of fear, and it can take weeks just to get them to put their face in the water, blow bubbles, go underwater, let alone float/swim.  Kids who are in teh water before they can walk generally don't have those problems, and are way ahead in skills by the time they are two.
At age 10 months she's certainly not swimming on her own, but she can climb (crawl) out of the pool on her own, go underwater without panicking and float with support. 

We put our child inot daycare 2x/week starting at 6 months, mostly for socializing (both with other children, but also to be around other caretakers.  At first it was more about her being comfortable with other people, but pretty soon (month ~7) she started interacting with the other infants.  Now (age 10 months) she's developing 'friends' - other babies she recognizes and 'plays' with (play being a lot of crawling over/over/with another baby, and a lot of throwing of toys). There's definitely recognition going on.

Well, for sure, there's lots of things you can do with your kids that are beneficial for them, but I wouldn't consider them a necessity. Will your kids never learn to swim if you don't put them in swimming lessons in their first year? Will they become social recluses if they don't go to daycare? Clearly not. If you have the money and think it's worth it, sure why not? But to quote these numbers and say that "This is the cost of having children" is clearly not true. My problem with the case study is that it states these costs as a necessity: We have to put our 8 month old in swimming lessons or they will drown; We have to hire $22/hr childcare 10 hours a week or we will lose our sanity. Therefore you NEED $5M to retire with kids.

nereo

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #566 on: June 24, 2019, 11:09:38 AM »


Well, for sure, there's lots of things you can do with your kids that are beneficial for them, but I wouldn't consider them a necessity. Will your kids never learn to swim if you don't put them in swimming lessons in their first year? Will they become social recluses if they don't go to daycare? Clearly not. If you have the money and think it's worth it, sure why not? But to quote these numbers and say that "This is the cost of having children" is clearly not true. My problem with the case study is that it states these costs as a necessity: We have to put our 8 month old in swimming lessons or they will drown; We have to hire $22/hr childcare 10 hours a week or we will lose our sanity. Therefore you NEED $5M to retire with kids.

I certainly agree with you there.  The common refrain I hear is "Children are so expensive [and there's nothing you can do about it!]'.  While there certainly are increased costs, a kid doesn't have to cost a ton of money, and much of what is being pushed as "essential" is really not.  It's much like all the other consumeristic BS out there (e.g. $100 monthly phone bills and $800 monthly groceries are not 'the cost of living in this day and age'). No, you do not need $5MM to retire with kids.  Strictly speaking, $5MM eclipses the lifetime earnings of *most* parents in the world by a fair margin (if you work for 55 years straight and earn $52k/years (~median household income in the US) you won't break the $3MM lifetime earnings mark).

There was so much wrong with FS's assessment I wrote an entire post about it. 

We're teaching our child to swim b/c we're constantly around water, and because it's imporant to us - but strictly speaking it's not a necessity.  We also do most of it ourselves at a cost of only our time.


londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #567 on: June 24, 2019, 01:01:31 PM »
Financial Samurai's site just dropped in my estimation, after reading that "you need $5M to retire" article.  The article reveals mainly a striking ignorance of even basic finances.

Yeah, I used FS as an example, not because of his frugality.  Rather, he is just one more in a line of people that saved a S-ton of moeny and still got plugged back into the economy.  If you read his earlier stuff, the lead up to this lifestyle, it seems to me (I do not know the guy, just one persons opinion), that he is using needing more money as an excuse to go back to work.  Like he's justifying the fact he misses it and wants some time away from the fam using the monetary angle. IMO he is a poster child for the over-saving, high income FIRE'e, and he's still working again.

tl;dr my entire three post rant.
If the average person here just realized they are not so different than all of those before us, that we will likely crave some paid work in the future, then it follows that a 3.5% SWR is very much overkill.  Not from a pure Maths perspective, but from a reality check perspective.  Hence I think it unwise to poo poo peoples plans that are probably more in line with reality.

I hear you. I am not sure whether people poopoo plans that draw more than 4% or not. All I said was that people need to be prepared to get back to work at those levels, as frankly a lot of the anecdotal/ real life examples observed on the forum have experience the biggest bull market on records (11 years and counting)... what happens if that busts?

Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #568 on: June 24, 2019, 04:53:50 PM »
what happens if that busts?
For me, very little, if it's anything like the recessions of the past 50 years in the US.  I diversify into noncorrelators that tend to perform better in those circumstances, even long term treasuries could do quite well considering Europe and Japan have shown us negative rates are possible.   If it's worse and we have supply-side inflationary pressures on top of a mean reversion (ie 1960's-1970's US), that would suck it up a lot more. Rates would have to go up and bonds would get smashed as well. IMO the best hedge there is some form of income, as that tends to follow the inflationary trends. So rental real estate (which I don't like, but many do) or a lifestyle gig, which I do intend to have. There are also other assets/hedges that do pretty well with inflation.

Hopefully anyone planing to execute has some type of similar answer for you, ie their personalized plan.  I don't live my life assuming catastrophe, but should bad things happen smart people have plans.


londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #569 on: June 25, 2019, 01:50:05 PM »
what happens if that busts?

  I don't live my life assuming catastrophe, but should bad things happen smart people have plans.

I don’t think a retirement plan should really be developed in anticipation of a catastrophic scenario, as nothing would ever be good / safe enough - nor can it be planned in isolation of the economic and social context around it either. Even if a cataclysmic scenario was to happen, someone with 30x their pre-catastrophe income will always be better off than someone who was living paycheck to paycheck... even if it means going back to work if a 1-100yrs event happens

nereo

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #570 on: June 26, 2019, 07:58:48 AM »
what happens if that busts?

  I don't live my life assuming catastrophe, but should bad things happen smart people have plans.

I don’t think a retirement plan should really be developed in anticipation of a catastrophic scenario, as nothing would ever be good / safe enough - nor can it be planned in isolation of the economic and social context around it either. Even if a cataclysmic scenario was to happen, someone with 30x their pre-catastrophe income will always be better off than someone who was living paycheck to paycheck... even if it means going back to work if a 1-100yrs event happens

I'm reminded of my grandparents and father - who were 'middle class' in Europe in the 1930s.  Long story short they wound up refugees and after bouncing around relief camps they immigrated to the US in 1952 with only two steamer trunks to their name.  My grandparents were in their early 50s at the time, and had to effectively start over, which they did, to great success.
Point is, there may be some scenarios in which no amount of savings or planning can avoid.  The best defense IMO is resilience and adaptability.

londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #571 on: June 26, 2019, 02:00:05 PM »
Amen to that !!

Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #572 on: June 26, 2019, 11:56:08 PM »
I always say there is a 10% chance of black swan in my lifetime.  Something almost any level of finances will not protect against. Hence anything >90% on Cfiresim is a lie anyway, so why sweat it. In those circumstances, having the ability/preference to live frugally and a wide range of skillsets are by far the best hedge. 

markus

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #573 on: June 29, 2019, 07:58:54 AM »
Hi everyone,

It's been some time since I last posted, and I'm feeling good about throwing my hat into the ring for the Class of 2022 / FIRE Cohort. My net worth surpassed my metrics for 'FI' about two or three years back, and has since broken through my own 'RE' numbers (basically a certain buffer beyond just 'FI', covering assorted estimates and conservative padding). As such, I've been looking ahead and considering the months and years ahead and feel very confident about the work remaining at my place of employment and when a good time to declare my exit will fall.

I plan to give a very long notice as I'd like to complete current projects and properly train up new hires, and I'm deeply tied into many processes at work as I've worn many hats for a long time. If I'm shown the door sooner, that'll be fine, too. There's a decent chance this means leaving a potentially large bonus on the table, but collecting it would require staying on for another six months by the time any bonuses would be paid out, and I've already been lucky enough to have collected a few very generous ones over the years which I dutifully socked away into savings and investments. During any stressful period at work, I always think to myself how glad I am that I saved that money; that sense of being able to go at any time if I really need to continues to be a source of strength and helps me relax and continue with the work at hand.

That leaves a little under two years still to go until I plan to give notice, so lots of items to go through in the big pre-FIRE checklist (courtesy of all the smart people in this forum) which I delight in steadily working my way through. That included a few surprisingly enjoyable visits with a therapist specializing in career and life changes in which I got to discuss things that had been on my mind such as whether I'm thinking clearly about all of this, what kinds of things am I not considering that might blindside me, things the therapist has seen blindside others, etc. To that point, the therapist's answer was that many people looking to leave a job or career are often so exhausted and desperate for a change that they're completely focused on getting away, and not at all considering what they're going to. The point was that people need to have that laid out, lest they inevitably end up trying to get back into the thing they left behind. In my case he agrees that I've simply exhausted my passion for this kind of work and that I have a wealth of things that I'm itching to get to afterward, much of which involves growing and evolving these same career skills, albeit in more creative contexts that would be more personally satisfying.

I left each of our sessions feeling remarkably good and that my plans are on very solid footing. It made me feel like the mountain work still to do was not only something I'd be able to handle, but that it was ultimately just one chapter in my larger life, and that this chapter is simply coming to its last few pages before an entirely new act and set of chapters begins. I would recommend adding some career therapy time into anyone's checklist, if not only to tie up a few more potentially loose ends.

In the meantime, there are more technical items to work on such as drawing up a will (long overdue regardless), and continuing to transition my asset allocation according to my glidepath plan. Purchasing and reading through all of Michael McClung's 'Living Off Your Money' was well worth it, as were the more general texts like JL Collins' 'The Simple Path to Wealth' of which I continue re-reading chapters now and again just to review.

Ultimately, if my designated time to give notice comes around and the market has tanked or I've got cold feet or even feel a new surge of desire to continue in my current work, I can always just ... wait, and not press that button for the moment. However, right now I'm really looking forward to replying in this thread on that day that I do.

Until then, I'll continue to enjoy reading about everyone's else's approach to their graduation dates here. Thanks again to all for your thoughts and insight!

dsw

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #574 on: July 09, 2019, 01:47:20 PM »
I'm getting ready to start a new job. It pays about 30% more than my current one, and I think it should be pretty interesting too. If all goes well, this could be my last new job. I have big plans for this position, and it would be very satisfying to have one last good push before walking away from it all. It's hard to describe just how fortunate I've been to get to this point.

I'm not quite close enough to the end that I can visualize it yet, but I feel like I'm not too far away from that point. I think someone on this thread mentioned that getting to 2022 from here is sort of like making it through high school. So, I think that makes this my freshman year coming up. Now I just need to make sure I don't get fired from high school . . .

It's been a year from this post, and it looks like I made through freshman year. From a professional perspective, the job change has been a success so far. Things are going well, and I'm pretty happy in this position (so far as having to work goes). Financially, I'm on schedule, and maybe slightly ahead. Of course a big stock market drop could change that. As I've mentioned previously, I've built enough redundancy into my projections that I'm not too worried about it.

And just for fun, for my current estimated last day, I have fewer than 700 days left to work (not including vacation time). I hope everyone else is doing well and having a good summer (or winter depending on your latitude)!

Well Respected Man

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #575 on: July 09, 2019, 02:21:18 PM »
I'm also exploring moving into the 2021 cohort. I'm currently scheduled for 2/22/22, and thinking about moving my retirement date up to 8/xx/2021.

Reasons to work OLY:
  • Windfall from ESPP
  • One kid is not continuing in college, so some unused 529 money is available for the other kid
  • DW is much more on board after watching the Playing with FIRE movie
  • 6 more months of freedom

Reasons to work OMY:
  • I might not get the full amount into the ESPP in 2021 unless I re-enroll, and that could cause me to miss some value (waah)
  • Can't afford to live in current house if I'm not working, so need to accelerate the plan to get it in shape to sell (waah)
  • Need to loan parents money to bridge their move into a more appropriate home
  • Miss out on 2022 401(k) and backdoor Roth (waah)
  • It's only 6 more months

It may depend on whether and how quickly my parents pay back the loan. I may start a thread about that. In any case, I need to figure out AA and cash flow for the first few years. Time to go reread the planning stuff from earlier in this thread.

dsw

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #576 on: July 09, 2019, 05:04:17 PM »

Reasons to work OMY:
  • I might not get the full amount into the ESPP in 2021 unless I re-enroll, and that could cause me to miss some value (waah)
  • Can't afford to live in current house if I'm not working, so need to accelerate the plan to get it in shape to sell (waah)
  • Need to loan parents money to bridge their move into a more appropriate home
  • Miss out on 2022 401(k) and backdoor Roth (waah)
  • It's only 6 more months

It may depend on whether and how quickly my parents pay back the loan. I may start a thread about that. In any case, I need to figure out AA and cash flow for the first few years. Time to go reread the planning stuff from earlier in this thread.


The loan to your parents sounds tricky. Hopefully you'll get that all worked out to place you're comfortable. I've had a good experience with loans to family, but I know that's not always the case. Some of the reasons you put for staying in 2022 may also apply to my situation. At some point in 2021 I'll figure all that out though.

Well Respected Man

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #577 on: July 09, 2019, 08:42:10 PM »
I opened a new thread about the loan to my parents: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/helping-parents-buy-house/

Please check it out and comment if you have input.

beeboy

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #578 on: July 15, 2019, 09:04:51 AM »
Hello everyone! I'd like to officially join the class of 2022 (I like the sound of that year). I'm currently 44 years old with about 1.4 million in investments/ savings (brokerage account, annuity, 401k, checking and savings accounts). I'd like to have between 1.75 to 2.25 million when I retire sometime during 2022. I think it's doable and Firecalc gives me a 100% chance of success. Looking forward to interacting with you all and to our "graduation" in 4 (hopefully short) years!

Welcome!!  You're in the right place. You should also join the "Race from $1M to $2M" thread. :-)

Thanks Couponvan. I'll join that thread as well. Can't wait to achieve FIRE!

Hi all.

Just wanted to let everyone know that I've moved up my FIRE year to 2020 so I've left this graduating class. I just can't take w*$k anymore and have come to realize that I don't have to. When I joined the class of 2022 in Jan. 2018, I was at about 1.4 mil invested assets and it has grown to approx. 1.75 mil as of today, already hitting my low-end FIRE number.  So, good luck to all of you and I did notice that some others on here have moved up their FIRE dates as well.

2022 is still right around the corner, but I think 2020 (probably like March/April/May) might be a better time for me. I'm hoping to be somewhere between 1.9-1.95 mil around then but who knows if I'll reach that number. There's also a chance I might not make it to my FIRE date if I decide I really want out before then.

Hope everyone is making significant progress towards FIRE regardless of their end date!


-bee

FloridaDad

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #579 on: July 15, 2019, 07:36:32 PM »
Please add me to the class of 2022. I am soooo looking forward to retiring in 3 years or less. I'm married, kids are grown, one is finishing up college in 2021. I am 55, and my DW is 53.

My current NW is approx. 1.25M, broken down as follows:

1. 575K in TIRA, boglehead 3 fund portfolio.
2. 100K in 403b
3. Joint life, full survivor no COLA pension of $1900 per month starting in 2023 (I consider this to have a net present value of approx. $342000)
4. Brokerage accounts: 50K
5. Paid off home: 200K
6. No debt

My target NW is somewhere around 1.5M in 3 years, of which I would like to have 800K in invested assets.

Our goal is to live off 50K per year (and getting the ACA subsidy). I have run the cashflow through Firecalc and we have 100% success rate. I have also used the free personalcapital.com cashflow modelling and it looks very doable. I have played with higher monthly numbers as a safety cushion and even adding 10K per year is reasonable in terms of risk.

We live in a VLCOL area along the gulf coast of Florida. Taxes here are in the $1400 per year for example. The median family income is about 40K per year in this area. We like the weather, even in the summertime as we spend a good deal of time on the boat.

My plan for the next 3 years is to get as many of the expensive asset renewals done in the next 3 years. We have replaced the HVAC. new windows, new kitchen appliances, all new pool equipment, new car, etc already. I am going to have a new roof put on next year.

My biggest concern is the bridge between the time I am drawing from my 403b/TIRA/pension and the time I take Social Security. I have run my numbers through the social security quick calculator that gives a pretty good estimate. The calculator I used allows me to put in my retirement date as well as all of my earning years numbers. I get $3400 if I wait until FRA, $2000 if I start at age 62. Here is the link to the SSA calculator I used:

https://www.ssa.gov/planners/retire/AnypiaApplet.html

So, the bucketed cashflow looks something like this:

Age 58-60:

Pension: $1900
403b withdrawals: $2100 (using the rule of 55, such that there is no penalty)

Age 60-62:
Pension: $1900
403b: $1000
TIRA: $1100

Age 62:
SSA: $2000
Pension: $1900
403b: 0
TIRA: $100-$200

My biggest question in my mind is how far to spend down "my money" and when to take SSA. I don't have longevity in my family, so I am thinking of taking it early.

I am also thinking about pulling my date up to 2021.

It felt really good to type all this out. Makes it feel more real to me.

Appreciate any feedback!





Need2Save

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #580 on: July 20, 2019, 07:19:46 AM »
Welcome to the 2020 Cohort, @FloridaDad - your post doesn't show any SS income for your spouse?  Isn't she also going to be able to receive SS income at some point even if she is slightly younger than you? Or do you keep your finances seperate?

Best wishes to @beeboy.  We will have to see how it goes for you @Well Respected Man!  As an original member of the 2025 cohort, I'm all about adjusting to your changing circumstances.

Thanks to those who previously responded on an earlier page about back-up plans. That was very interesting to read.

As an update, we've looked (you know for the thousanth time) and confirmed that DH would have the option to leave at the end of 2021 if he wanted to. His birthday is actually at the end of December so it would be an awesome birthday present to retire on his 49th birthday!  Originally we thought he'd work until the end of April, 2022 but his annual bonus (paid in March) is not that impressive and honestly, although it would be nice to fill up another year of 401k contributions (including catch-up for the first time) it really is meaningless towards our long-term success rate since our traditional retirement savings is very adequate. It's really just the savings/investments that we plan to live on for the first ten years that needs toping off over the next 2.5-3 years.  Most days he likes the idea of working just 2.5 more years, but he's waiting to see how he feels at the time to maybe work a few more months. He is very considerate about the people that work directly for him on this team, so I think he will also consider status of projects at that time for a smooth handoff.

My plan is still July 15, 2022 because I have a significant bonus paid in July.  It usually nets me $25k after taxes or more and would easily cover a planned 2-month trip to Germany (and surrounding countries) that fall to celebrate our retirement after filling up my 401k and HSA for the year and securing health coverage through the end of the year before switching to an ACA plan. 

Giving a two weeks notice period is not acceptable with my role. It will take ~two months to find, interview and hire a replacement candidate for my role because of my area of specialty. I planned to give my boss 4 months notice with the intent to scale back to PT if they find and hire a replacement during that time (being available basically for questions and introductions to key resources/vendors) as long as my bonus payout in July is secured (you have to be active on the day it's paid out). Our plans will not be contingent on that final bonus payout so if this is not acceptable or doesn't play out that way, I'll just leave earlier to join DH.  Either way, I'm officially under 3 years now!  Woot-woot.

FloridaDad

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #581 on: July 23, 2019, 05:52:47 AM »
Welcome to the 2020 Cohort, @FloridaDad - your post doesn't show any SS income for your spouse?  Isn't she also going to be able to receive SS income at some point even if she is slightly younger than you? Or do you keep your finances seperate?

I forgot to include my DW SS income, thanks Need2Save for reminding of that! She will earn approximately $1000 per month at 62.

I've run the numbers through the FIRE calculator with her income and it shows 100% success rate.

FLdad

Need2Save

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #582 on: July 26, 2019, 07:54:21 AM »
I know 3 years is still a long ways off, but part of me thinks it will be here rather quickly - in a blink of an eye.

The last couple weeks a major $hit-$storm happened that made me prioritize getting certain files and records in better order.  This helps me immediately with the current project, but is def. something I needed to do before handing off my department to a new person. It's kind of exciting to think now that I have that done, I just need to keep up maintenance between now and then and it will be in good shape. I'm pretty organized (forced to be) but there were a couple of things that I let slide and just kept pushing off.  I've also been scheduling cross-training sessions with my team so they can get out of their own heads a little and appreciate what the other team members are doing incase they have to pinch hit on certain tasks.  If we can keep this up, it will also be very helpful in my final stretch in '21 and '22.

I think upstream (or maybe it was a couple of other threads) a lot of people were talking about 'fuck'em, if the company doesn't think ahead to cross train their people or require documentation, that's their own fault if you leave quickly.'  In my case, I am the manager so it's up to me and I want to leave on good terms because I care about the other people in my department.  Yes, I have 'FU' money, but I don't literally want to 'F' these people on purpose.

nereo

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #583 on: July 26, 2019, 08:11:27 AM »
So we've hit a snag with employment (detailed somehwat in my journal) and now a 2022 targer to FI is looking less certain.  C'est la vie. If no one minds I'll keep posting here nad see if we can get back on target.  But I wind up joining the 2024 cohort (if there is one).

we shall see....

matchewed

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #584 on: July 26, 2019, 08:24:13 AM »
So we've hit a snag with employment (detailed somehwat in my journal) and now a 2022 targer to FI is looking less certain.  C'est la vie. If no one minds I'll keep posting here nad see if we can get back on target.  But I wind up joining the 2024 cohort (if there is one).

we shall see....

Well poopernutter...

Hope things get back on track relatively quickly.

friedmmj

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #585 on: July 28, 2019, 04:00:36 AM »
So we've hit a snag with employment (detailed somehwat in my journal) and now a 2022 targer to FI is looking less certain.  C'est la vie. If no one minds I'll keep posting here nad see if we can get back on target.  But I wind up joining the 2024 cohort (if there is one).

we shall see....
Sorry to hear.  How do I read your journal? 

nereo

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #586 on: July 28, 2019, 05:44:46 PM »
So we've hit a snag with employment (detailed somehwat in my journal) and now a 2022 targer to FI is looking less certain.  C'est la vie. If no one minds I'll keep posting here nad see if we can get back on target.  But I wind up joining the 2024 cohort (if there is one).

we shall see....
Sorry to hear.  How do I read your journal?
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/well-educated-but-broke/

HappyCheerE

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #587 on: August 01, 2019, 05:07:37 PM »
Back up to 93.2% of FIRE target (hit 94% a few days ago). It's so weird to see our NW fluctuate in a month more than we earn in a year... but very satisfying to see the stache acting like another earner in the family, since eventually it will be the only breadwinner! 32 months left, which isn't very long considering how they fly by.

monarda

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #588 on: August 18, 2019, 09:59:34 AM »
Greetings class of 2022!

I thought I might be in the 2021 class, but with some recalculation after the sale of a rental I'm thinking maybe OMY. I'll be following along with you guys. If there's no recession, then 2021 is still do-able. The timing mostly depends on health care and the next election outcome. Once there's single payer (or dropping the medicare age so we're eligible), we can be FI pretty much right away. We're 59 and 58 now.

By 2026, we'll both be 65,  so any earliness in retirement for us is just based on budgeting pre-medicare.

If I'd been at this job longer, my pension would be greater and provide us more than the $600ish a month that it does now. Our rental income is currently what we're living off of, I call it 'practicing retirement'. But there's not a lot left over.

Oh, and I like my job. Maybe I'll go to half-time in 2020. (??) That still gets me full health insurance.

Edit to add: I just did swordguy's analysis, what percentage of FIRE are you now, and it came out to 64%. Adding in what's anticipated from social security, I think we're just barely there now. But I'm 7-10 years from taking SSI
« Last Edit: October 27, 2019, 11:36:02 AM by monarda »

TempusFugit

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #589 on: August 18, 2019, 04:53:45 PM »
I've only recently discovered this whole subculture of FIRE having stumbled upon MMM via his Tim Ferriss podcast interview.   I've been kind of obsessively running my numbers for a few weeks now to see if I'm potentially able to FIRE in the not-too-distant future and... I think I just might be!

I recently took the time to change my investment mix, moving out of some actively managed funds and into index funds.  I invested some idle cash.  I ramped up funding of a Roth IRA. 

Now 2022 is looking like it could be my year.   My struggle is going to be reducing my spending.  I've done a pretty good job (by normal standards, not by Mustachian standards) in the savings category and so I now have a 'stache of around 800K + ~140K home equity (remaining mortgage of 120K).  I have a savings rate of around 36% (low by Mustachian standards, I know).  My spending is about 50% discretionary (restaurants, mostly) but it will be a hard habit to break. 

I'm single w/no kids so I only have to support one person (so long as my mom's $ lasts for her retirement, which it probably will, fingers crossed).   

My spending goal for post-FIRE is around 47K/yr so I'm hoping to have my 'stache at the 1.2M level by 2022.  That seems to be where things are headed assuming average returns over the next 5 years (7%).  There's also a lot of fluff built into that 47K figure, so plenty of room to adjust if needed. 

If everything falls into place and I pull the trigger in 2022 at 52 years of age, I should have around 260K in taxable accounts to draw from and 950K or so in retirement accounts.  Some reading over at the Mad Fientist site enlightens regarding the access to retirement account funds to bridge the post-FIRE to 59.5yr gap, so I think that would be doable.   


My recent research into the world of FIRE has clued me in on the fact that financial freedom is at my fingertips. That makes my job both less frustrating and more frustrating.  Less so because I don't have to think so long term anymore regarding my career. I don't need another promotion.  I don't have to play the political game.  I can be more honest and open about issues.   But also more frustrating because I can see the end, so close... yet not quite here.



So this is my one year post-iversary!*    How has the plan been going over the past year?  Well, let's see...

A couple of things from my initial post can now be revised.   First, my savings rate has improved.  At the time of my first post, I had approx a 36% savings rate. I ended 2017 with a 49% (post tax) savings rate and so far in 2018 I'm actually at 59% (I include mortgage principle in that calc).   So that's a win and works the needle in the FI sooner direction.  My spending has reduced just a little bit (maybe 8% so far).  I do plan to take a couple of short trips later this year, so that might get me closer to last years spending. 

My net worth has increased by $143K since this first post and I became a millionaire, which is also good.  That also works the FI needle closer to now. 

I no longer intend to pay off my mortgage in any hurry. I've read lots of the posts in these forums about the issue and the math seems to be solidly in the 'keep your mortgage' category.  Since I've got 12 more years on my 3.75%, I think I'll stay the course and just pay it off on the normal schedule.  I may move before then, anyway. 

Now that I am tracking my spending more closely, I have revised my target RE spend upward.  Now, I realize that there are many on the forums who rightly point out that MMM is all about finding sufficiency (nay, bounty) in low cost living.  I get it.  We bigger spenders are dragging up the average on the boards, but we're doing better than we would have without the MMM influence.  So while my 2017 self used 47K as my expected RE spend, I'm now looking for something more around 60K.  Frankly, healthcare costs have me a little freaked out.  Where I live, right now the ACA plan at the Silver level with no subsidies would cost me around 8K/year.  It's only going up.  I'm expecting to need 10-12K/year when I start my RE life.   Trying to predict this is almost pointless, but clearly all signs point to 'more expensive'. 

Increasing my target RE spend obviously moves the RE needle away from now. 

Now that my stash is adequate to provide for me in a 'skinny FIRE' scenario, I do feel somewhat liberated at work.  I find myself being less obliging to early meetings, pointless conference calls, etc.  While my job has never been bad by most standards, I chafe at the fundamental reality of being someone else's servant. I don't want to work their schedule. I don't want to be on call in the middle of the night.  I don't want other people's crappy work to reflect on me.  And I don't want to have to plan my life around being in a cubicle 5 days a week.  Having more financial resources takes a little bit of the edge off of that, since I know that I could walk away at any time.  But I also have to check myself sometimes because I'm not yet where I want to be when I pull that trigger. 

All in all, I see myself still on target for a 2022 RE.  I still extrapolate my stash will be somewhere in the $1.2-1.3M range at that point.  I have a small pension that kicks in at 60, which should reduce my WR by almost 1.5 percentage points. FIRECalc has me at 100% historical success with my current numbers.   

Will I have the guts to really pull the trigger in 2022?  I don't know. It's too far away to be real just yet.  Of course, 20% of my 5 year horizon from first post has now slipped into the past, and it didn't seem to take very long. 

I think my finances are pretty much in snowball mode at this point so the most important thing I need to be doing now to prepare myself for RE is finding new hobbies, interests, and friends that I can spend my time with post-FIRE.  I think this is the most likely stumbling block for me come 2022.  I couldn't retire today if I had the money, because I'm not mentally and socially prepared.  I've got to focus on getting that part in order.
 

Hope everyone else has made good progress on your goals for the past year and I look forward to the final stretch! 


*close enough


And here we are at my 2 year post-iversary!    Not sure what the correct gift is for that... 

Kind of scary to realize that since my first post now 2 years or 40% of the time from then to my planned FIRE year has passed.  5 years never seems so short until it's behind you, I guess. 

So how did my second year toward the FIRE goal go?     Things seem to be pretty much on track, even though market performance last year was... not good.    My liquid net worth (a.k.a. the stash) increased by a mere 31K in 2018, helped along by my 2018 saving rate of - wait for it - 53% (yay, me).   

In 2019, I think the saving rate will be a bit lower due to no work bonus (boo trade war) and some high home & auto maintenance work that totaled around $7,500.  But, as most of us have probably learned, once we're rich enough to be planning our early exit from the workforce, our stash growth isn't really affected by a few thousand dollars of unexpected expenses here or there.  Not when mister market can trim off tens of thousands in a week,  as he has done lately (boo trade war).   

I just looked and see that the S&P 500 is a mere 1% higher today than it was one year ago. 

What else has gone right in the second year?  My general fitness level has improved. Retiring early only to be physically unable to enjoy my freedom would be sort of sad.  Not to mention the chance of departing this plane entirely.  I want to improve my chances of having a healthy, long retirement.  To that end, I have been able to stick with a very basic workout routine 3x / week for about the past 9 months.  Just some stretches, some body weight exercises (planks, push-ups, dips), some free weight and kettle bell routines and then either biking or running.  I've been a (casual) runner for years, but I never really stuck with any kind of resistance training.  It really doesn't take very much time to make a noticeable (to me, anyway) difference. I am very much looking forward to fall weather, though, to make the outdoor parts more pleasant. 

I've been working a small side project with some folks that I hope to keep good business relationships with over the next few years as a way to perhaps ease into RE.  It will generate about 10K this year (before tax man gets his cut, so probably net of only about $7K) but it also will only have required 100-120 hours of my time.  I took the project more for the relationship and possible future business than I did for the money.  I kind of hope to have one or two small (very small) projects each year to keep my mind sharp once I leave corporate America.  Bringing in 10-20K each year would do wonders for the withdrawal rate! My pension starts in 2030, and it will be about that amount so this would be a nice little safety bridge if I can pull it off for 6-8 years. 

My spending is basically on par with the last couple of years, aside from the noted maintenance stuff above.  For planning purposes, I am using $5K / year as my maintenance expense between home and auto.  I don't know if I will stay in my current home through my early retirement years or if I will find some other living arrangement.  It is something to think about, since acquiring a mortgage without an income producing job might present challenges.  I do like my suburban town so I'm actually considering a local move sometime before RE.  If I do, it would probably be a net expense of about $100-$150K. That might be the thing that triggers a OMY.  We'll see. 
 
I'm still using the $60K/yr number for spending post FIRE, which gives me a 96% fireCalc success rate for the 2022 time frame.   The poor markets last year brought that down from a projected 100% a year ago.  Noise, I guess.

My spend number obviously includes a great deal of discretionary spending.  My 'skinny' FIRE spending - which wouldn't require downsizing or ditching cable or eating only beans and rice or anything like that, is about $40K and my 'slim' FIRE number which would include more frills is about 50K. These levels are pretty much within reach right now, but I am aiming for a more 'husky' FIRE.   I think I keep up with these other lower FIRE levels just as a way to stay confident that if I lose my job for some reason before I decide to pull the cord, I don't have to freak out.  I can gauge the level of bullshit up with which I am willing to put at the corporate gig.  I can stay confident that my corporate overlords don't really have any power over me. 

I have >5 years of spending in post-tax accounts, so when I hit the door, I've got the money available.  I have a rather conservative asset allocation, at 65/35.  I back tested against my portfolio for what would have happened in the 2008 meltdown and my stash would have lost 26%.  When I actually FIRE, I will be taking a cash payout for one of my pensions, which I currently consider part of my bond allocation. When that happens, I plan to shift a percentage of that cash into equities and bring my AA to 70/30.  I'm sure that will depend on how things look at the time. If we are still at PE levels of 30... maybe not. 

2 years into my journey I now recognize that 3 more years until 2022 is not very long at all.

How are everyone else's plans coming along?  Do you all have different 'levels' of FIRE that you keep track of? Is work more or less frustrating as we get closer to the finish line?  Have you adopted any coping strategies?







 
 


Slow road to freedom

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #590 on: August 18, 2019, 07:35:07 PM »
Hi folks

I wonder if you have room for one more?

I’m currently booked into the 2023 cohort, but savings are going well enough that I’d like to give my 12 months’ notice in 2021, with a view to move on by Q4 2022.

Of course, I don’t really know how I’ll feel as I get closer to the time - it’s only 2 years to ‘notice’ time - but right now, 2 years feels an absolute age away. Here’s hoping it will fly.

I’ll be 50 in 2022. It feels a good target. I’ll probably look for something part-time / different rather than stop completely. That qualifies as FIRE in my world, as it would be my choice, and on my terms.

Slow Road

TempusFugit

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #591 on: August 18, 2019, 08:06:05 PM »
Hi folks

I wonder if you have room for one more?

I’m currently booked into the 2023 cohort, but savings are going well enough that I’d like to give my 12 months’ notice in 2021, with a view to move on by Q4 2022.

Of course, I don’t really know how I’ll feel as I get closer to the time - it’s only 2 years to ‘notice’ time - but right now, 2 years feels an absolute age away. Here’s hoping it will fly.

I’ll be 50 in 2022. It feels a good target. I’ll probably look for something part-time / different rather than stop completely. That qualifies as FIRE in my world, as it would be my choice, and on my terms.

Slow Road

Welcome aboard, Slow Road.  The more the merrier. 

Need2Save

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #592 on: September 01, 2019, 09:58:49 AM »
How are everyone else's plans coming along?  Do you all have different 'levels' of FIRE that you keep track of? Is work more or less frustrating as we get closer to the finish line?  Have you adopted any coping strategies?

Nice update @TempusFugit. We don't really think of our future spending in distinct levels such as you have defined here. We have a general annual target in mind that we use for all projections that's close to $65k in today's dollars and more like $70k if we have a lot of travel planned.  We have something called 'the less fun budget' if we find ourselves neading to dial back a little which has a reduced budget for fuel/eating out/fun spending/ & travel. Even with some of these reductions, we can live nicely on around $50k without suffering in the slightest. Some of our projections have us reaching the age of 95 with over $3M, so it's unlikely we will be forced to use 'the less fun budget' but we will obviously watch things closely along the way.

We recently took a short trip abroad and spent time with a close friend who we've known for over 25-30 years. He is aware of our plans to stop working in under 3 years and he is considering following within 4 or 5 years after our target. His income and budget is quite a bit higher than ours, but his wife also is the one earning the most (partner-level attorney) and due to law school and clerking on capital hill, she didn't start earning a good salary until about 6 or 7 years after the rest of us. He doesn't think she's ready yet...but I can see he is imagining himself with a lot of free time to do as he pleases in the future. This is a couple I could see us taking trips with so it would be awesome if they didn't have to schedule around 'work life'.  As it stands now, he is planning on joining us in Germany for at least a week during our 'we are retired suckas' exit trip in fall of 2022!  Oktoberfest - here we come.

FrugalSaver

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #593 on: September 01, 2019, 12:27:00 PM »
With the flipping of the calendar to September, I’m now officially under 30 months remaining. Could be sooner or longer depending on the market but I keep
Plugging away

lollylegs

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #594 on: September 01, 2019, 02:35:51 PM »
I'm still aiming for end 2022 retirement, just plodding along. I have been doing a second job for the last 2 years two days a week and I'm now winding that down. It will impact on our savings but I'm just getting too tired, so we are in the process of reviewing our spending and seeing where we can cut back.

I feel like the last few months I've started to get my head around the idea of retirement and who I am if I am not working. I'm trying to focus more on life outside of work. The last few weeks I've cleaned out years of stuff in the office - that felt good!  I have my calendar that I check off each Friday and most of the financial side is automated. So we are on track so far and waiting to see what next year brings with the possible layoff.

HappyCheerE

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #595 on: September 02, 2019, 07:36:58 AM »
92.7%. 31 months, or a month of months, left! And I started a journal. Happy Labor Day to all who labor!

HappyCheerE

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #596 on: October 02, 2019, 06:57:53 PM »
So on 9/30 we were at 93.8%, today at 92.3%. This is why most of y'all don't chime in every month, I'm guessing. It comes, it goes... and the Top is In thread is evergreen (made me laugh out loud today!) But back to 2022... this is "the year of research" and running theoretical tax numbers, I can take at least 2K off our annual number. We might move to an earlier cohort, especially if I decide I don't care about my health care fund vesting in 20222, which is only about 2K right now itself. How are the rest of you doing? This is a pretty quiet cohort lately!

RWTL

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #597 on: October 03, 2019, 04:12:49 AM »
Posting to follow....currently in the 2023 cohort.

cloudsail

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #598 on: October 03, 2019, 10:27:21 AM »
So on 9/30 we were at 93.8%, today at 92.3%. This is why most of y'all don't chime in every month, I'm guessing. It comes, it goes... and the Top is In thread is evergreen (made me laugh out loud today!) But back to 2022... this is "the year of research" and running theoretical tax numbers, I can take at least 2K off our annual number. We might move to an earlier cohort, especially if I decide I don't care about my health care fund vesting in 20222, which is only about 2K right now itself. How are the rest of you doing? This is a pretty quiet cohort lately!

I was contemplating OLY but haven't committed yet. NW has been stuck for the past couple of months thanks to the market. We're still supposed to hit our goal in 2021 though.

Lluviata

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #599 on: October 04, 2019, 11:19:42 AM »
Hi all,

I'm new to the mustachian boards, but have been saving devotedly since I stumbled on FIRE with Mr. Money Mustache in 2004.

I'm here to join the 2022 cohort! I'm not sure if I'll be FIREing, but I'd like to be financially independent by the end of 2022.

My fiance and I have a stache of $900k. Our annual spending is around $50k, so we're aiming for $1.25 Million. I'm a little unsure if 2022 will be our actual date - we have a lot of uncertainty likely in the future with a planned move and two potential job changes - but I'd like to track it with you folks, if that's ok.

How are everyone else's plans coming along?  Do you all have different 'levels' of FIRE that you keep track of? Is work more or less frustrating as we get closer to the finish line?  Have you adopted any coping strategies?

I would say our plan is going well - our initial goal for this stage of our lives was $1 million by the end of 2020, and we're almost definitely going to hit that goal . . . markets willing and the unemployment don't rise. We've been planning a move from Texas to Florida for about 3 years, so the $1 million goal is about making a large amount of money before we move into a job market that will likely pay us less. As for the rest, I haven't been working, so I couldn't say. I took a personal sabbatical starting in 2017, and worked some at a nonprofit but have been unemployed for a variety of factors since Nov 2018. I satisfied what I wanted to do by working at the nonprofit, so I'm now returning to engineering. If anyone would want to talk about coping by potentially having a gap like that, I'm happy to answer questions about what it was like.