Author Topic: 2022 FIRE cohort  (Read 196203 times)

Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #500 on: March 17, 2019, 01:19:51 AM »
Can I have a seat at the "cool table"?

A Firecalc median return has me at just over my goal for a 4% SWR at the end of 2022 with my preferred AA.  A Monte Carlo is giving me a median a little under that.  Caveat, I may decide to go a bit early with part time work.  I'm 39 and will turn 46 in 2022.

My original post in this thread, almost exactly three years ago. 

This has turned out to be a preferred option for me, the caveat has become a reality.  I'm finalizing my plan for semi-RE later this year.  I just don't want be counted as a lost drop out, this stuff works.  Good luck pushing onward to 2022!

dsw

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #501 on: March 18, 2019, 09:02:23 AM »

This has turned out to be a preferred option for me, the caveat has become a reality.  I'm finalizing my plan for semi-RE later this year.  I just don't want be counted as a lost drop out, this stuff works.  Good luck pushing onward to 2022!

Wow, that's quite an upgrade! Congratulations and good luck!

couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #502 on: March 18, 2019, 12:24:26 PM »
I declined to return from a personal leave of absence today, so we are determining my official last day. I have not officially FIREd. I consider myself on a “smoke break”. I’ll let the FI smolder and see if it turns into a real FIRE. We hit $1.65 mil briefly this month, but with college costs and me not working it will go down. I will revaluate after Summer. :-)

Playing with Fire UK

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #503 on: March 19, 2019, 05:43:22 AM »
Congrats @couponvan - Happy Smoke Break!

couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #504 on: March 20, 2019, 02:51:35 PM »
Congrats @couponvan - Happy Smoke Break!

Thank you - 3/29/19 is my smoke break date....3/2/1....GO!  We are also buying a house which we can qualify for on just DH's income alone.

Need2Save

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #505 on: March 20, 2019, 07:17:43 PM »
Some of the other cohort threads seem to be more active than ours. I'm sure we will hit our stride soon.

But.....exciting news for @couponvan and @Classical_Liberal! So nice to see positive updates from you both.

We met with our attorney recently to udate our wills, POA, etc. and had to compile a NW summary. We don't usually add everything up in one place because we don't include our home equity, college savings, and some of our other assets in our FIRE calculations.  I had to make sure the Mr. was not going to quit the next day. He's had it very stressful at work lately. But our 3 year exit plan is on very sound footing and we have many fall-backs including the equity in our home which we are going to be selling at some point.

Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #506 on: March 21, 2019, 02:07:22 AM »
Thanks folks!  A big congrats to Couponvan for the "smoke break".  Love the term!

dsw

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #507 on: March 21, 2019, 07:20:49 AM »


We met with our attorney recently to udate our wills, POA, etc. and had to compile a NW summary. We don't usually add everything up in one place because we don't include our home equity, college savings, and some of our other assets in our FIRE calculations.  I had to make sure the Mr. was not going to quit the next day. He's had it very stressful at work lately. But our 3 year exit plan is on very sound footing and we have many fall-backs including the equity in our home which we are going to be selling at some point.

In theory the 3 year plan should make things easier to deal with, but I haven't felt that just yet. Instead I feel like I'm in a race to get there before my job either goes away or gets to a bad point. I actually feel that more now than when I had much less. Fortunately I'm liking my job right now, but the prospect of getting through three years if things go south seems daunting. I suspect I will feel a lot more comfortable when I get to the point where I no longer depend on THIS particular job still existing and being palatable. Maybe after another year or so.

Trifele

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #508 on: March 21, 2019, 07:32:05 AM »
I declined to return from a personal leave of absence today, so we are determining my official last day. I have not officially FIREd. I consider myself on a “smoke break”. I’ll let the FI smolder and see if it turns into a real FIRE. We hit $1.65 mil briefly this month, but with college costs and me not working it will go down. I will revaluate after Summer. :-)

Just stopping by from the 2019 Cohort to say congratulations @couponvan!  If your 'smoke break' (love it) turns permanent, feel free to come on over.  We'll greet you at the door with a beer and post up your announcement.   We recently had someone from the 2023 group join.

cloudsail

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #509 on: April 01, 2019, 01:15:18 PM »
Now that we are getting close, is anyone else feeling like three years is reeeeeally far away? Somehow now that it's really starting to materialize, the time span feels much longer than it did a few years ago. Like, I want to be onto the next phase of my life NOW.

Just venting my impatience a little, can't talk to anyone in real life about this.

TempusFugit

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #510 on: April 01, 2019, 04:53:02 PM »
Now that we are getting close, is anyone else feeling like three years is reeeeeally far away? Somehow now that it's really starting to materialize, the time span feels much longer than it did a few years ago. Like, I want to be onto the next phase of my life NOW.

Just venting my impatience a little, can't talk to anyone in real life about this.

Yes and no.  It seems really far away looking forward, but frighteningly recent in the rear-view.   

When I stumble across something like a movie that I saw or a book that I read and I think it was just a few months ago only to discover that it was 2-3 years ago I get a little spooked.  Contemplating FIRE ahead of me, I get impatient for that last few years to pass, but then on further reflection I realize how important the limited time left in my life is, so I really shouldn't be in any hurry.

The days drag, but the months fly by. 


middo

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #511 on: April 01, 2019, 05:11:33 PM »
Now that we are getting close, is anyone else feeling like three years is reeeeeally far away? Somehow now that it's really starting to materialize, the time span feels much longer than it did a few years ago. Like, I want to be onto the next phase of my life NOW.

Just venting my impatience a little, can't talk to anyone in real life about this.

Yes.  I recently posted the following on another fourm (unrelated) in a "What annoys you but shouldn't" thread:

"Work.  I have a good job, pays well, with good colleagues and reasonable mental stimulation.  But I just don't want to be here anymore."

Pretty much sums it up for me.  May go part time before the actual date, or change job a couple of times, as I'm not really into work anymore.

HappyCheerE

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #512 on: April 01, 2019, 06:54:30 PM »
Whoo-hoo, officially joining! I'd been planning to post in the 2024 thread once we were 5 years away... but as of today, we're just shy of 90% to our goal and 2/22/2022 (for giving notice, 4/1/2022 to be done) has such a nice ring to it! I will be 57 and DH 59, so not very E, but we've been jointly working less over the years--it's the Achilles and the tortoise approach to FIRE. I have some side gigs I'm happy to continue forever; the goal is no more daily needing to be in a particular place at a particular time. In Jan 2022 I'll vest in a small health benefit, so that's a marker to head for, plus I'm getting a second degree for free as long as I work; 2024 would allow me to graduate with 0 out of pocket, but it's probably not worth waiting that long.

36 months. 12 quarters. 156 weeks. It does feel very long and very short at the same time. I have many plans to gamify/motivate the heck out of my remaining work tenure. Good luck to all of us in this cohort!

londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #513 on: April 01, 2019, 08:51:11 PM »
Whoo-hoo, officially joining! I'd been planning to post in the 2024 thread once we were 5 years away... but as of today, we're just shy of 90% to our goal and 2/22/2022 (for giving notice, 4/1/2022 to be done) has such a nice ring to it!

Hey?!!! That’s my date!! My car is even licensed XXX222

HappyCheerE

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #514 on: April 02, 2019, 04:09:52 AM »
I love round numbers and auspicious dates. But trying not to be too attached to any specifics as they can all change. @londonbaker, which came first, the date or the license plate? :*)

londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #515 on: April 02, 2019, 09:17:39 PM »
I love round numbers and auspicious dates. But trying not to be too attached to any specifics as they can all change. @londonbaker, which came first, the date or the license plate? :*)
That’s exactly why I picked that number 3 years ago... easy enough for me to remember. Lots of people at work (inc my boss) asked me about the significance of my plate number :-) I had to come up w a BS answer that it was the day I met my wife; they now think I am a romantic lmao!!

freya

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #516 on: April 03, 2019, 06:54:11 AM »
Now that we are getting close, is anyone else feeling like three years is reeeeeally far away? Somehow now that it's really starting to materialize, the time span feels much longer than it did a few years ago. Like, I want to be onto the next phase of my life NOW.

Just venting my impatience a little, can't talk to anyone in real life about this.

Same here!  According to my conservative estimates I should hit my low-end FIRE number in 2021, then one more year of savings for extra cushion.   It's just that I'm so DONE with work, even though I enjoy the core of it.  With the mandatory this's and that's and obvious administration-imposed inefficiencies I am getting seriously burned out and feeling like it's increasingly hard to accomplish anything, while my personal life continues to be starved for time.   At this point in my life (I'm 56), 3 years is an increasingly large chunk of my remaining time.  I keep thinking how I'd really like to be spending it.

cloudsail

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #517 on: April 03, 2019, 09:32:22 AM »
Yes, we will hit our base FI number by 2021 as well. The rational part of me knows that 2022 is better for us in terms of finances, kids schooling, etc. But the impatient part of me is this little voice in my head chanting "OLY, OLY....."

Aaaaaahhhhh….............

lollylegs

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #518 on: April 10, 2019, 03:30:52 PM »
Now that we are getting close, is anyone else feeling like three years is reeeeeally far away? Somehow now that it's really starting to materialize, the time span feels much longer than it did a few years ago. Like, I want to be onto the next phase of my life NOW.

Just venting my impatience a little, can't talk to anyone in real life about this.

Yes some days it feels so far away and others its really close when I think about how much more I need to get done by then.

I find myself reading the 2019 retirement thread every morning so I can vicariously enjoy the thrill of retiring.

heres how we're tracking with Net worth:
Retirement Funds: $430,000
IP $40,000
Home:$320,000

Our plan is to sell up our home & downsize into one of our IPs which will add approx $200,000 to our retirement funds.

I could be up for a redundancy in the next 12 months which would be good.  I need to do some calculations and see how we can cut our spending and increase our savings rate. 
Nice to see how everyone else is doing aiming for 2022.

londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #519 on: April 11, 2019, 12:22:29 AM »
We just hit the £2m net worth mark last month. Yaye!
£1.4m of that is in liquid assets that I am in the process of investing. Our goal is still to hit £2-2.3m of invested assets so we are still lined up for 2022

jalich

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #520 on: April 11, 2019, 06:49:48 AM »
So I'm pretty late to this cohort party, but I'm shooting for a 2022 FIRE date as well. Like another poster earlier in the thread, I liked the look of 2/22/22, and I needed a goal, so that's my date! We have about $214k in assets, no debt, and are saving about $10,000/month between tax-advantaged and post-tax accounts so I think we are looking good with no real dependency on stock market returns to do much of the heavy lifting.


I have more details in my journal for you financial voyeurs. I just started it yesterday while re-reading the MMM article about making goals public so it's still in the development stages.


http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/22222-58656/

I was looking for another post and stumbled across this one again and decided to post a quick update. About 13 months later from my initial post we are at $346k, so still on track! It's so close and still so far away at the same time.

Talk to ya'll again in 2018 :)

Well I missed the entirety of 2018... I'm not very good about keeping this one updated.

15 months later we are at $533k, still on track, and still plugging away.

See you in 2020?


Chuck

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #521 on: April 11, 2019, 02:37:42 PM »
Just passed 500k NW. 1k per month compensation from VA. It's gonna be tight, but I might make it on time.

HappyCheerE

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #522 on: May 01, 2019, 05:41:01 AM »
91.3% of our number as of today! 35 months, 152 weeks, 668 working days if we stick to the target. I try to remember to think every day "I could die tomorrow" and "I could need to keep working into my 70s or later," checking that I'm living so that would be OK (enough joy and savoring of the present), but the countdown is fun. The numbers vanish so quickly in the rear-view mirror even when they seem to pile up ahead.

couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #523 on: May 01, 2019, 06:08:09 AM »
At the end of my first smoke break month our net worth climbed to $1.7 million up from $1.65.  It was a good month to start taking a break, as we climbed almost what I made after tax in a year in.one.month.  WOW. The other side of the swings doesn't feel nearly as good.

I've spent the last month traveling to Spain for 10 days, and preparing to move house. Spain was hotels on credit card points, and cheap airfare.  We'd paid for the trip this past December, so there were only food/dining costs this month.

Since I am on a smoke break, I am able to shop the various sales and use coupons because I'm not working.  Lowes $10 off $50 coupons came in VERY handy.  I was at Lowes multiple times during their sale week that ended on 4/28.  I got a lot of plants for the yard on sale and in multiples of $50 at a time.  Rinse and repeat.  $4/$10 hostas - I'll take $50 worth.  Starting next year I'll be able to divide those 20 hostas into 40. Bushes on sale for $19.99, I'll take 2 plus a clearance $1 plant that needs some TLC. We are scheduled to close on the house 5/15/19. That's just two weeks from today!  There is still plenty of work to be done at the house, so fingers crossed it actually gets done in time.

Reflections from month 1 of the break - it's good I've had something to keep me busy.  I might be bored in a few months.  I must find a productive hobby - that isn't shopping.

dsw

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #524 on: May 01, 2019, 09:54:27 AM »
Reflections from month 1 of the break - it's good I've had something to keep me busy.  I might be bored in a few months.  I must find a productive hobby - that isn't shopping.

I like the idea of a smoke break month. I don't think that's an option I can take at this point though.

Just to add to the recent updates, I did my monthly calculation yesterday, and I'm now at 90% of my minimum goal, 75% of my target, and 60% of my ideal case. These are relatively conservative numbers, so I'm likely better off than I think. It's nice to be hitting significant milestones. I can remember not too long ago thinking to myself "if only I can make it long enough to get to $x." I'm finally getting to those levels, and it's a really nice feeling.

couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #525 on: May 01, 2019, 10:21:05 AM »
Reflections from month 1 of the break - it's good I've had something to keep me busy.  I might be bored in a few months.  I must find a productive hobby - that isn't shopping.

I like the idea of a smoke break month. I don't think that's an option I can take at this point though.


Oh - my smoke break is going to be until September at the earliest....5-6 months.  I haven't actually worked since last October, so the plan is more of a gap year.  Cancer stinks.  I deserve a little life - just in case - YOLO.

dsw

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #526 on: May 01, 2019, 11:00:29 AM »
Oh - my smoke break is going to be until September at the earliest....5-6 months.  I haven't actually worked since last October, so the plan is more of a gap year.  Cancer stinks.  I deserve a little life - just in case - YOLO.

Oh, I missed that part. Yes, that is a fantastic reason for a smoke break. And yeah, cancer is an asshole.

Need2Save

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #527 on: May 05, 2019, 07:46:35 AM »
I would be interested in hearing what this cohort's contingency plans are other than returning to some kind of paid/working position?

For example, here are things we include in our 'back up plans' or if 'shit hits the fan' what can we count on?:
1. Our projections do not rely on collecting social security.
2. We are not including a small (roughly $250 - $300) pension I could collect starting at age 55 (probably hold off until 65 though)
3. Our HSA balance will be shy of $100k the year we stop working which should help cover any medical emergency, though we hope not to touch it and keep it invested until we need it in our 60 - 80's. On top of this, we are including projections for out of pocket health care costs and premiums.
4. Our current house will be paid for (as of next year). When we sell it and travel for a while, we will invest it conservatively until we are ready to settle down elsewhere (also not included in our projections).
5. From a shear SWR perspective, our projected balance could generate an additional $25k in income in 2022 using 4% (but we are initially projecting more like 2.7% needed)

What about y'all? What helps you feel confident in your projections and plans to retire in 2022?

Playing with Fire UK

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #528 on: May 05, 2019, 08:06:31 AM »
My FIRE budget includes a chunk for travel. If I need to cut down, that'll be the first thing to go.

freya

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #529 on: May 05, 2019, 09:29:20 AM »
Have any of you checked your progress to FIRE lately?  With the markets on fire since January both cfiresim and firecalc have been all about the good news. Hope I didn't just jinx the market saying that!

Like couponvan, I could survive just fine if I quit right now, but would have to keep a tight lid on spending for the first few years especially if there is an early market downturn.   I'm at 78% of the generous FIRE number I've been aiming for.

As far as contingency plans...this is what I did to create my hopefully bulletproof retirement budget:

- Social Security:  I'm counting it at a 25% discount.  I believe, strongly, that it will continue in some form, but will pay reduced benefits that SSA estimates at 77-79% of current rates.  Of course, I'm 57 so it's a safer bet for me...probably would ignore it entirely if I were younger than 40.

- Health care:  I'm planning for the full-price insurance cost before age 65, and for Medicare + Medigap + prescription insurance costs after.   The main risks to your retirement budget are "out of network" costs, exorbitant prescription copays, and balance billing.  Many Obamacare plans and Medicare managed care plans expose you to these booby traps.  I rather liked the look of Sedera (health sharing plan) for pre-Medicare coverage, but they don't do pre-existing conditions.

- Long term care:  There's a lot of Alzheimer's in my family, so I made sure my net worth would support at least 10 years of round the clock care at home, or in a nursing home.

- Finally, I added 20% of non-mortgage expenses to my retirement budget.

- Taxes:  I estimated an average state + federal income tax rate in retirement of ~11%, so I multiplied my final retirement budget by 1.11 to account for this.

Any potential budget bombs that I missed?


dsw

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #530 on: May 05, 2019, 07:27:43 PM »
I would be interested in hearing what this cohort's contingency plans are other than returning to some kind of paid/working position?


Good question! Here are my contingency plans . . .

1. I'm significantly overshooting my current spend rate. While I don't intend to spend a great deal more (I suspect it will be roughly the same), psychologically, I will be much more comfortable with being to handle an emergency or two without blinking. At the moment, I like my job, so it's not a huge deal for me to keep going to this point.
2. As a couple of others already mentioned, I'm not including social security in my calculations. My guess is that best case I should assume a 25% cut and worst case 50%.
3. My ideal case scenario involves working long enough to buy a house in town, but I don't budget for selling my townhouse. I know this isn't the most accurate way to calculate it, but getting from my target to the ideal level doesn't seem real enough yet to worry with it. In another year or two, I may start trying to figure this out.
4. And even though you specifically said other than returning to work, I'll add that the prevailing wage for some jobs in my area which aren't too difficult for someone with my background are in a range that would help me supplement my income well enough in things go massively sideways.

What I'm really banking on though is that I have the kind of temperament that can step away from work one day and watch the market go down 20% the next without being panicked. Investing in 2008/2009 was a great test of my investing fortitude, and I came out doing pretty well. While I don't expect a situation nearly so bad as that, I think my plan has enough options and contingencies to work through some rough times.

I also have a few other avenues with health care and whatnot that I won't go into here, but that I think will really keep my plan on a good path.

middo

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #531 on: May 05, 2019, 09:41:20 PM »
I would be interested in hearing what this cohort's contingency plans are other than returning to some kind of paid/working position?

For example, here are things we include in our 'back up plans' or if 'shit hits the fan' what can we count on?:
1. Our projections do not rely on collecting social security.
2. We are not including a small (roughly $250 - $300) pension I could collect starting at age 55 (probably hold off until 65 though)
3. Our HSA balance will be shy of $100k the year we stop working which should help cover any medical emergency, though we hope not to touch it and keep it invested until we need it in our 60 - 80's. On top of this, we are including projections for out of pocket health care costs and premiums.
4. Our current house will be paid for (as of next year). When we sell it and travel for a while, we will invest it conservatively until we are ready to settle down elsewhere (also not included in our projections).
5. From a shear SWR perspective, our projected balance could generate an additional $25k in income in 2022 using 4% (but we are initially projecting more like 2.7% needed)

What about y'all? What helps you feel confident in your projections and plans to retire in 2022?

My RE won't be that early, I'll be 52.  My plans require a couple of things to fall into place, based on the sale of a couple of properties between now and then.  We may continue to work to fund the re-development of a property beyond 2022 if necessary.  But if it isn't planned for, it will never happen.

As I live in Australia, health care can be left up to the government, but I will keep up private health insurance in retirement.  It could always be dropped at a savings of ~5000 per year.

We are expecting to live mainly off rental income for the first few years. 

One thing I will have the option of doing, being a teacher, is going back for fixed contracts of work, eg a term or a semester if needed, and also if we desire a bundle of cash for a specific purpose.  My wife can also do the same, so our potential earnings in an emergency is ~3500 per week.  It also makes overseas trips or other wants, rather than needs, available with specific work for a specific goal.

The issue I have is defining retirement.  I'll still be renovating houses, doing work within the family as needed, doing paid work for short periods as needed etc.  My real aim is to move from permanent full time work.

couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #532 on: May 06, 2019, 05:54:12 AM »
Saturday I was planting with our landscaper from the builder of our new home....He made a funny comment, but I thought this group would appreciate it.  As he was working planting our front yard, he said he's retired....Then on Saturday morning he said he'd spent an all nighter covering a job.  I was all, "I'm not the Retirement Police, but you kind of sound like you're working!". He retired this year from a 30 year gig as a firefighter to do a bit of landscaping on the side and take over "sick shifts" occasionally.  So he is regularly retired, and any money he makes from his side gigs are going towards a future beach house.  His son was working with him - a freshman at a local junior college.  Great guy, and great kid.  Anyway, I almost told him about MMM and all, but I didn't think he needed me for that.  He has a horticulture degree, and has done the landscaping on the side.  Sick gigs pay 3X what regular gigs pay....sweet deal. He said he takes about 2-3 of those a month, and it's more like a fun hang out with his old friends than work. LOL. 

Why was I planting? Because I had my own design plan for the front yard, and I was just going to be moving everything the builder would have put in.  When the builder saw my design plan he decided to let me go in early.  If I hadn't been on a smoke break, I'd have just hired the landscaper to do the whole design.  Since I'm not, I wanted to save that $ and do it myself. I did pay him for the mulch and a tree I couldn't seem to find cheaply on my own. At $5/plant for planting, I'd say I was earning myself about $40 per hour. :-)  Plus I got to be outside in the sun and dirt.

Today I'll be finishing spreading mulch....Probably another hour worth of work.

dsw

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #533 on: May 06, 2019, 12:48:20 PM »

Why was I planting? Because I had my own design plan for the front yard, and I was just going to be moving everything the builder would have put in.

. . .

Plus I got to be outside in the sun and dirt.

Today I'll be finishing spreading mulch....Probably another hour worth of work.

That sounds lovely. I look forward to the day where I have the sort of time for projects like that. Landscaping is actually one of things I really enjoyed doing back in the days before my jobs got really involved.

cloudsail

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #534 on: May 06, 2019, 01:18:01 PM »
I was really interested to read other people's contingency plans. It seems like there are many similarities wrt to social security, health care, primary residence, etc.

For us:
1. Not counting social security at all.
2. We are Canadians living in the U.S. If healthcare becomes unaffordable we have the option to move back.
3. I have a side gig that I can do from anywhere in the world. It pays on average $1000 a month. I don't count this income in our calculations.
4. We have about $300k Canadian from an inheritance that I don't count in our assets.
5. I am being very conservative with spending estimates. We will likely hit our number long before 2022, so our withdrawal rate will be lower than 4%. And this is for current crazy amounts of spending including expensive therapies (will end in two months), summer camps, lots of eating out, etc.

My goal for the next two years is to rein in the crazy spending a little and get a more accurate picture of what our expenses will look like in retirement.

salt cured

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #535 on: May 30, 2019, 01:33:10 PM »
Posting to join the fun.

I'm a recently single guy in a MCOL US city with a strong income in the short term. When I was married, we were targeting 2026. Now that I'm single, I believe I can hit my FI number by 2022. I actually just heard a few weeks ago that the divorce agreement had been signed by the judge, which has put a small spring in my step.

My response to the divorce being official was mostly due to having this person out of my life once and for all. But I was also a little nervous that the judge would scoff at our separation agreement, which did not include spousal support (when we split up, I made 5x her income). Worst case scenario, I would have been on the hook for about $100k, so it's nice to have that squared away. In the end, I guess it wouldn't have been devastating, but it certainly buys me a few extra years of freedom.

My contract ends May 2022, and it's dawning on me that three years isn't all that long a time! I need to start thinking about what I'd like to accomplish before then!

Biggest Priorities
  • Grow the stash - I'm targeting $900k by May 2022. I don't know that I can do much to increase my salary between now and them, but I'm working on ramping up my AirBnB business. I've done a pretty good job cutting expenses in my first year post-separation (increased savings by $10k despite losing $50k in income) but should be able to get this lower moving forward.
  • Learn Spanish - I'd like to do an intensive homestay type program in a Spanish speaking country when my work contract ends and would like a decent base to help ease into that. I've used a really great podcast off and on and have some simple books (kids books and the Spanish version Bridget Jones' Diary haha), but I think I'm going to see about enrolling in language classes at my university (I work in academia).
  • Work on myself - This is a broad category, and I've already made strides in my health and relationships, but I'd like to become more mindful and present. I still like to distract myself with podcasts, forums, etc. rather than allow myself time for introspection and mediation. So a big goal for the remainder of 2019 is to get in better touch with myself. Reading has helped with this. I definitely need to get a sleep routine in place--I currently have a very unhealthy relationship with my phone and allow it to keep me up.

Good luck to everyone in 2019!
« Last Edit: May 30, 2019, 01:35:29 PM by salt cured »

middo

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #536 on: May 30, 2019, 04:35:12 PM »
I am no longer certain we will hit FIRE in 2022, but we will be close.  A move interstate, changes to our living arrangements and a drop in property prices in Australia have hurt our plans.  I will stay in the group, as things always change, and I am hopeful I can manage to get there, but a few doubts at the moment.

dsw

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #537 on: June 01, 2019, 07:12:54 AM »
Posting to join the fun.

Welcome salt! It sounds like you're on a good track. It's great that you got out of a relationship that wasn't working for you before FIRE. A post-FIRE divorce could be pretty risky. Your priorities look interesting too. I didn't know those sorts of homestays were an option for non-students. It sounds like a really interesting opportunity.

And yes, three years isn't very long! Enjoy it while they go by . . .

dsw

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #538 on: June 01, 2019, 07:18:58 AM »
I am no longer certain we will hit FIRE in 2022, but we will be close.  A move interstate, changes to our living arrangements and a drop in property prices in Australia have hurt our plans.  I will stay in the group, as things always change, and I am hopeful I can manage to get there, but a few doubts at the moment.

I've read a few other people mention the drop in real estate prices in Australia. Is this a broad based drop or is it limited to certain cities? Hopefully the next three years will be long enough for things to bottom out and turn around. In the US things looked pretty dire in 2008/2009 but wound up recovering quite nicely (for those who could manage to ride out the storm, at least).

HappyCheerE

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #539 on: June 01, 2019, 12:36:16 PM »
Down to 88.5% of target... but the plan is supposed to be flexible (plus that isn't very much of a swing at all in the larger scheme of things). A good time to think about Need2Save's questions:
  • We're not including Social Security in our projections either, but we will be 57 & 59 in 2022 so chances are it will be still be around in some form to help out if we need it.
  • Our target is 25x a fairly generous estimate of expenditures and includes an annual set-aside for buying another car at some point, which we may never have to do.
  • This isn't *returning* to paid work: I have two small on-my-own-time-at-home side hustles now, on top of my fixed-time-in-the-office job, which cover about 5% of expenses and which I very much enjoy. Those aren't included in our projections either, just in case they evaporate, but I plan to continue them and could add one or two similar activities without it feeling like "work."

middo

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #540 on: June 01, 2019, 06:38:52 PM »
I am no longer certain we will hit FIRE in 2022, but we will be close.  A move interstate, changes to our living arrangements and a drop in property prices in Australia have hurt our plans.  I will stay in the group, as things always change, and I am hopeful I can manage to get there, but a few doubts at the moment.

I've read a few other people mention the drop in real estate prices in Australia. Is this a broad based drop or is it limited to certain cities? Hopefully the next three years will be long enough for things to bottom out and turn around. In the US things looked pretty dire in 2008/2009 but wound up recovering quite nicely (for those who could manage to ride out the storm, at least).

Parts of the market are down 10-20%, but some are still going up.  Australia has very high housing prices due to a number of factors, so we have never been able to use the 1% rule.  My properties are mainly in WA where the market has basically gone nowhere since 2006.  While we haven't really made any losses, we haven't made any gains either, and the rental prices are slightly lower now than in 2008.  This has meant longer times to pay off mortgages, less chance of a good resale, and less profit in the long run.

HappyCheerE

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #541 on: June 03, 2019, 03:06:52 PM »

  • We're not including Social Security in our projections either, but we will be 57 & 59 in 2022 so chances are it will be still be around in some form to help out if we need it.
  • Our target is 25x a fairly generous estimate of expenditures and includes an annual set-aside for buying another car at some point, which we may never have to do.
  • This isn't *returning* to paid work: I have two small on-my-own-time-at-home side hustles now, on top of my fixed-time-in-the-office job, which cover about 5% of expenses and which I very much enjoy. Those aren't included in our projections either, just in case they evaporate, but I plan to continue them and could add one or two similar activities without it feeling like "work."
I forgot #4... we donate 10% of our AGI to charity every year. We intend to continue that, but if there were a big threat to our FIRE status we could pause or reduce that significantly.

cloudsail

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #542 on: June 08, 2019, 01:20:13 PM »
We are seriously considering OLY and moving into the 2021 cohort.....

Our investable assets will most likely reach our goal of $2M either late this year or early next, markets willing. We have two rental properties, one of which is paid off. Together they cash flow a little over $20,000 after all expenses. We have at least $300,000 equity in our primary residence which I don't count in my calculations. Most importantly, DH is getting more and more excited by the idea of FIRE, whereas he had serious misgivings before.

Our current FIRE number is based on us selling our house and moving to a less expensive one, as we are in a HCOL location for DH's job. However, I'm hopeful that if we hit $2M by early 2020, then hang on until mid 2021, we'll have enough to stay in our current house until the kids finish middle school, which for our youngest would be 2027.

So much is up in the air..... our current mortgage is $3000/month, not including property tax and insurance. Add those in and it all comes out to about $45,000 a year! That's just a crazy amount to be paying for housing.... yet with my son's special needs and finally finding a school that works well for him, I'm really hesitant to move. Although if we only stay here until my son finishes middle school (the school is K-8), that's only until 2025, which isn't very many years.

So yeah..... probably OLY!

ScreamingHeadGuy

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #543 on: June 08, 2019, 05:31:40 PM »
We are seriously considering OLY and moving into the 2021 cohort.....

Our investable assets will most likely reach our goal of $2M either late this year or early next, markets willing. We have two rental properties, one of which is paid off. Together they cash flow a little over $20,000 after all expenses. We have at least $300,000 equity in our primary residence which I don't count in my calculations. Most importantly, DH is getting more and more excited by the idea of FIRE, whereas he had serious misgivings before.

Our current FIRE number is based on us selling our house and moving to a less expensive one, as we are in a HCOL location for DH's job. However, I'm hopeful that if we hit $2M by early 2020, then hang on until mid 2021, we'll have enough to stay in our current house until the kids finish middle school, which for our youngest would be 2027.

So much is up in the air..... our current mortgage is $3000/month, not including property tax and insurance. Add those in and it all comes out to about $45,000 a year! That's just a crazy amount to be paying for housing.... yet with my son's special needs and finally finding a school that works well for him, I'm really hesitant to move. Although if we only stay here until my son finishes middle school (the school is K-8), that's only until 2025, which isn't very many years.

So yeah..... probably OLY!

Feel free to dip your toes into the 2021 pool.  We are one year cooler than the 22 cohort.  🙂

matchewed

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #544 on: June 21, 2019, 09:14:21 AM »
I'm going to throw my hat in this ring as I've watched the projections condense over the years. It should be early 2022, I may creep into late 2021 but I'm okay with joining this crowd.

Current status - $365k

Goal - $600k @ 5% SWR and a $10k-$9k/yr real estate income buffer giving an income of around $40k/year. With any sort of fun income doing "other" stuff.

With returns and contributions we (my wife and I DINKing it up) we can add about $100k per year to our stash.

I look forward to the journey.

londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #545 on: June 21, 2019, 01:45:39 PM »
I'm going to throw my hat in this ring as I've watched the projections condense over the years. It should be early 2022, I may creep into late 2021 but I'm okay with joining this crowd.

Current status - $365k

Goal - $600k @ 5% SWR and a $10k-$9k/yr real estate income buffer giving an income of around $40k/year. With any sort of fun income doing "other" stuff.

With returns and contributions we (my wife and I DINKing it up) we can add about $100k per year to our stash.

I look forward to the journey.

5% is aggressive imho. If I were you, I would also assess whether a 3-3.5% SWR still buys you and your wife the lifestyle you want.

Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #546 on: June 21, 2019, 03:04:32 PM »
I'm going to throw my hat in this ring as I've watched the projections condense over the years. It should be early 2022, I may creep into late 2021 but I'm okay with joining this crowd.

Current status - $365k

Goal - $600k @ 5% SWR and a $10k-$9k/yr real estate income buffer giving an income of around $40k/year. With any sort of fun income doing "other" stuff.

With returns and contributions we (my wife and I DINKing it up) we can add about $100k per year to our stash.

I look forward to the journey.

5% is aggressive imho. If I were you, I would also assess whether a 3-3.5% SWR still buys you and your wife the lifestyle you want.

5% is fine as long as you're young and still plan to provide some type of value to the world in your retirement (or older with some type of pension/SS kicking in to lower WR).  While doing whatever it is you do to provide that value, over the years, tons of serendipitous opportunities will arise.  As long as you enter the situation knowing you'll probably need to take advantage of some of them, all will end well.  This isn't blind optimism, it's from looking at plenty of case studies.  Plus your overall spending is relatively low. Folks who spent six figures have a much harder time offsetting cash outflows with opportunities, hence have a bunch more to worry about in this realm.

If goal is to sit on couch and play video games interspersed with laying on the beach, then @londonbanker is right.  You just need to be honest with yourself wrt which way you are likely to go, based on personal history and personality.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 03:08:52 PM by Classical_Liberal »

londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #547 on: June 21, 2019, 03:20:33 PM »
I'm going to throw my hat in this ring as I've watched the projections condense over the years. It should be early 2022, I may creep into late 2021 but I'm okay with joining this crowd.

Current status - $365k

Goal - $600k @ 5% SWR and a $10k-$9k/yr real estate income buffer giving an income of around $40k/year. With any sort of fun income doing "other" stuff.

With returns and contributions we (my wife and I DINKing it up) we can add about $100k per year to our stash.

I look forward to the journey.

5% is aggressive imho. If I were you, I would also assess whether a 3-3.5% SWR still buys you and your wife the lifestyle you want.

5% is fine as long as you're young and still plan to provide some type of value to the world in your retirement (or older with some type of pension/SS kicking in to lower WR).  While doing whatever it is you do to provide that value, over the years, tons of serendipitous opportunities will arise.  As long as you enter the situation knowing you'll probably need to take advantage of some of them, all will end well.  This isn't blind optimism, it's from looking at plenty of case studies.  Plus your overall spending is relatively low. Folks who spent six figures have a much harder time offsetting cash outflows with opportunities, hence have a bunch more to worry about in this realm.

If goal is to sit on couch and play video games interspersed with laying on the beach, then @londonbanker is right.  You just need to be honest with yourself wrt which way you are likely to go, based on personal history and personality.

Well I assumed that his goal was to FIRE ( said topic of this particular thread) and not PT work / going back to work to earn / replenish his stash. If going back to work after a long sabbatical is the goal, then why wait... do it now.
Otherwise 5% is NOT safe. Please provide some evidence of “plenty of case studies”, as recent factual analysis is actually even challenging a 4% SWR, suggesting 3.5% might be the new 4%.

Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #548 on: June 21, 2019, 03:31:53 PM »
I'm going to throw my hat in this ring as I've watched the projections condense over the years. It should be early 2022, I may creep into late 2021 but I'm okay with joining this crowd.

Current status - $365k

Goal - $600k @ 5% SWR and a $10k-$9k/yr real estate income buffer giving an income of around $40k/year. With any sort of fun income doing "other" stuff.

With returns and contributions we (my wife and I DINKing it up) we can add about $100k per year to our stash.

I look forward to the journey.

5% is aggressive imho. If I were you, I would also assess whether a 3-3.5% SWR still buys you and your wife the lifestyle you want.

5% is fine as long as you're young and still plan to provide some type of value to the world in your retirement (or older with some type of pension/SS kicking in to lower WR).  While doing whatever it is you do to provide that value, over the years, tons of serendipitous opportunities will arise.  As long as you enter the situation knowing you'll probably need to take advantage of some of them, all will end well.  This isn't blind optimism, it's from looking at plenty of case studies.  Plus your overall spending is relatively low. Folks who spent six figures have a much harder time offsetting cash outflows with opportunities, hence have a bunch more to worry about in this realm.

If goal is to sit on couch and play video games interspersed with laying on the beach, then @londonbanker is right.  You just need to be honest with yourself wrt which way you are likely to go, based on personal history and personality.

Well I assumed that his goal was to FIRE ( said topic of this particular thread) and not PT work / going back to work to earn / replenish his stash. If going back to work after a long sabbatical is the goal, then why wait... do it now.
Otherwise 5% is NOT safe. Please provide some evidence of “plenty of case studies”, as recent factual analysis is actually even challenging a 4% SWR, suggesting 3.5% might be the new 4%.

This type of closed minded thinking through the financial world is why this forum originally thrived. Now it's a victim of it's own success and we get your refrain, over and over.  I'm simply a voice attempting to hold true to the original message of the FIRE through frugality movement.

For case studies see MMM, Financial Samurai, ERE, Mad FIentist, Living a FI.  Basically all the OG's of FIRE through frugality movement.  Then move on to the journals here and at other sites, you'll find hundreds.

matchewed

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #549 on: June 21, 2019, 04:36:37 PM »
I'm going to throw my hat in this ring as I've watched the projections condense over the years. It should be early 2022, I may creep into late 2021 but I'm okay with joining this crowd.

Current status - $365k

Goal - $600k @ 5% SWR and a $10k-$9k/yr real estate income buffer giving an income of around $40k/year. With any sort of fun income doing "other" stuff.

With returns and contributions we (my wife and I DINKing it up) we can add about $100k per year to our stash.

I look forward to the journey.

5% is aggressive imho. If I were you, I would also assess whether a 3-3.5% SWR still buys you and your wife the lifestyle you want.

5% is fine as long as you're young and still plan to provide some type of value to the world in your retirement (or older with some type of pension/SS kicking in to lower WR).  While doing whatever it is you do to provide that value, over the years, tons of serendipitous opportunities will arise.  As long as you enter the situation knowing you'll probably need to take advantage of some of them, all will end well.  This isn't blind optimism, it's from looking at plenty of case studies.  Plus your overall spending is relatively low. Folks who spent six figures have a much harder time offsetting cash outflows with opportunities, hence have a bunch more to worry about in this realm.

If goal is to sit on couch and play video games interspersed with laying on the beach, then @londonbanker is right.  You just need to be honest with yourself wrt which way you are likely to go, based on personal history and personality.

Well I assumed that his goal was to FIRE ( said topic of this particular thread) and not PT work / going back to work to earn / replenish his stash. If going back to work after a long sabbatical is the goal, then why wait... do it now.
Otherwise 5% is NOT safe. Please provide some evidence of “plenty of case studies”, as recent factual analysis is actually even challenging a 4% SWR, suggesting 3.5% might be the new 4%.

This type of closed minded thinking through the financial world is why this forum originally thrived. Now it's a victim of it's own success and we get your refrain, over and over.  I'm simply a voice attempting to hold true to the original message of the FIRE through frugality movement.

For case studies see MMM, Financial Samurai, ERE, Mad FIentist, Living a FI.  Basically all the OG's of FIRE through frugality movement.  Then move on to the journals here and at other sites, you'll find hundreds.

Classical_Liberal is right. If you look at my numbers it gives a spending of $40k. 25% of that is via rental income. I'll be FIREing at 40 with allowing myself the option of working if/when I want to. That inherently has it's own flexibility. Only 75% of the income needed for FIRE is at the 5% SWR so an even smaller amount of what I need to live on is exposed to the risks that SWRs are exposed to, namely sequence of returns. For certain the remaining rental income is subject to a variety of other risks as well but I have things in place to either mitigate or I just straight up accept those risks and will deal with them when/if they happen.

I could in theory save forever in order to mitigate any risk possible. But then I'd never FIRE. I'm accepting 5%. I refuse to accept that once you FIRE you can never work again or earn money again. That's a bullshit narrow way to view it.