Author Topic: 2022 FIRE cohort  (Read 86578 times)

RWD

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #400 on: February 10, 2018, 05:33:54 PM »
Alrighty, so how's everyone's nerves this week?

I'd be much more nervous if the stock market were to continue without a correction until 2022.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #401 on: February 10, 2018, 07:27:58 PM »
I believe we shed between 15-20% more in the next 60-90 days, with some dead cat bounces strewn in.

I hope I am wrong, but the buying opportunity for those of you with 4+ years left of accumulation wouldn't be the worst thing.

This is my backup cohort, I hope to get out by April 1, 2020.......even if it's just for a year or two. A market crash and no/slow recovery would make me second guess my plans.

TempusFugit

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #402 on: February 15, 2018, 04:51:18 PM »
After today I guess we're about 5% off the recent high.   I can't help but think that the 'correction' that lasted just a few days hasn't really done anything to correct an overvalued market.   
 

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #403 on: February 15, 2018, 05:04:24 PM »
After today I guess we're about 5% off the recent high.   I can't help but think that the 'correction' that lasted just a few days hasn't really done anything to correct an overvalued market.

Maybe the market isn't all that overvalued? Earnings have been pretty stellar, and if you adjust for inflation, the past 15-20 years haven't been all that amazing.

eazyebeneezer

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #404 on: February 23, 2018, 10:11:24 AM »
My partner and I just began the FIRE journey a few months ago. We had a solid foundation but now we are committed to maximizing all savings/investing options and we realized 2022 (summer) is the year we FIRE! As a teacher I will be maxed out on my pay scale for three years in a row by then, which is how my eventual pension will be calculated. We are now daydreaming about all the different adventures we'll be able to undertake at that point with our daughter, who will be seven. We have different options in terms of taking extended leaves, and my partner might be able transfer to a different country or city for OMY. We will likely continue working in some capacity, but we're just really excited about the prospect of more freedom!

The MMM site and forums have been so helpful. We are very appreciative of this community. I feel like we've discovered a secret that was hidden in plain sight all along. My money mindset is completely different than it was one year ago.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #405 on: February 23, 2018, 11:51:32 AM »
My partner and I just began the FIRE journey a few months ago. We had a solid foundation but now we are committed to maximizing all savings/investing options and we realized 2022 (summer) is the year we FIRE! As a teacher I will be maxed out on my pay scale for three years in a row by then, which is how my eventual pension will be calculated. We are now daydreaming about all the different adventures we'll be able to undertake at that point with our daughter, who will be seven. We have different options in terms of taking extended leaves, and my partner might be able transfer to a different country or city for OMY. We will likely continue working in some capacity, but we're just really excited about the prospect of more freedom!

The MMM site and forums have been so helpful. We are very appreciative of this community. I feel like we've discovered a secret that was hidden in plain sight all along. My money mindset is completely different than it was one year ago.

That is wonderful, welcome to the forums (and this cohort).

This was a backup cohort for me, as I was hoping to get to FI by 2020. Now with my other half losing her job, we might be drifting toward this one again.

Well Respected Man

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #406 on: March 02, 2018, 09:20:30 PM »
I love to see the cohort growing! We are very much on track for 2/22/22, if not earlier. I'm playing out the string while my kids are in college, and am setting up the CD ladder for those tuition payments. DW is more and more on board for downsizing our house, especially since we moved her mother into an assisted living situation recently. If we can convert some home equity into dollars, I may be able to retire earlier. DW is going to continue working, which will help with health insurance and increased pension later.

Less than 4 years to go!

dsw

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #407 on: March 12, 2018, 07:54:23 AM »
Hi everybody!

I have been on autopilot with saving and investing for awhile now, and it occurred to me last month that I actually need to start planning the endgame now. So, based off of my best guess, 2022 is the year I'm aiming for. Depending on factors I can't control, it's possible I'm off by a year in either direction (or, if everything goes to hell, more).

The one big factor that I have less control of than I'd like is my job. Through 80% luck and 20% skill, I've happened into a career that no one with my background has any right to expect. If this job disappears, it will change the whole equation. I will likely not be able to replace the income without moving (which, for many reasons, I really want to avoid). Really, what I need is one more full year in this position to put me in good enough shape that I start feeling secure.

Either way, I've been super lucky to get this far. There are many alternate paths my life could have taken that involve my working in a restaurant until I drop. At this point, the amount I save and invest is far more than what I ever thought I would make in a year. I have a constant feeling that I've been repeatedly robbing a bank . . . and lately I've started to think I might get away with it.

So this year I'm putting all new money in relatively short term investments while I figure out how I want to set up laddering. It's weird to think about things in those terms, and it's still too far out to get really excited yet, but I'm starting to see a dim light on the horizon.

In any case, I hope I can stick with this cohort, and I'm looking forward to see how everyone else progresses!

nereo

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #408 on: March 12, 2018, 08:06:29 AM »
Hi everybody!
...
The one big factor that I have less control of than I'd like is my job. Through 80% luck and 20% skill, I've happened into a career that no one with my background has any right to expect. If this job disappears, it will change the whole equation. I will likely not be able to replace the income without moving (which, for many reasons, I really want to avoid). Really, what I need is one more full year in this position to put me in good enough shape that I start feeling secure.
Welcome to the club.

Best I advice I can give you regarding the job is this: make yourself as valuable as possible. If charging hard the next 12-18 months will set you (and your family?) up for life just go for it.

I also wouldn't get too overly aggressive with laddering just yet.  At the very least make sure you are still taking advantage of your every dollar in tax-advantaged accounts while your salary is still high.  You can start building your ladder ~2 years before you are ready to pull the plug (e.g. around 2020).
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Thoughtful Mule

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #409 on: March 12, 2018, 11:19:30 AM »

I also wouldn't get too overly aggressive with laddering just yet.  At the very least make sure you are still taking advantage of your every dollar in tax-advantaged accounts while your salary is still high.  You can start building your ladder ~2 years before you are ready to pull the plug (e.g. around 2020).

Since we are all looking at about 4 years until FIRE, It would be a good idea to discuss withdrawal strategies. This is interesting that you mention building a ladder ~2 years before pulling the plug on employment. I'm assuming that the ladder is a Roth conversion. I'm curious where that number comes from.

dsw

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #410 on: March 12, 2018, 01:54:09 PM »


I also wouldn't get too overly aggressive with laddering just yet.  At the very least make sure you are still taking advantage of your every dollar in tax-advantaged accounts while your salary is still high.  You can start building your ladder ~2 years before you are ready to pull the plug (e.g. around 2020).

Part of my motivation is to be a bit more balanced overall. I am at around 95% invested in stocks. Although I have a good tolerance for risk, that's a bit much for this stage. Additionally, I want a bit of flexibility over the next couple of years in case I need to pull the plug early.

Beyond the fluidity of my own situation, I am interested in the general thinking on laddering. It seems like I do want to have some sort of head start if I do Roth conversions. My current thinking is that I'll do Roth conversions from my 401k, which I believe means that I need to do them five years before I withdraw. So by having a five year ladder of a mix of bonds and CDs, that should set me up for being able to make that rotation work.

And yes, I'll still max my 401k/IRA/HSA contributions in the process. I realize now that I did say all new money, but what I intended to say was all new money in excess of tax advantaged accounts. I've been investing in those so passively that I forget to count them.

At this point though, all of the above is just theoretical and I'm starting to educate myself on these aspects that I've never had to think of before. Accumulating seems pretty simple compared to withdrawing. Definitely would be interested to hear what others are planning.

couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #411 on: March 12, 2018, 02:06:58 PM »
Our plan is to sell our main house to build our ladder....currently we have 1 year cash, 1 year Roth, and 3-4 years home equity. We are in AMT land now, so FIRE will definitely be lower taxes.
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nereo

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #412 on: March 12, 2018, 02:24:31 PM »
regarding ladders - we talk about setting up a Roth ladder a lot around here, but in my above comments I was talking more about bond ladders that are often suggested for retirees to reduce volatility and insulate an investor from sequence-of-returns risk (though at the expense of some potential growth).

Conventional retirement wisdom recommends a 5 years worth of fixed securities (e.g. bonds) or in cash. There are some very good reasons to do just this.  However, given that we are in the high-savings crowd, the poster in particular seems to be earning quite a bit, and most bonds are making earning a paltry 2-3%, it's worth considering whether buying them now (as opposed to 2 years from now) is the best use of your little green soldiers.  My broader point is that if you are not taking advantage of every possible tax-advantaged account this should be done before piling money into bond ladders.  Note that one can buy fixed securities within tax-advantaged accounts.   

just my thoughts on the matter...
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Well Respected Man

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #413 on: March 16, 2018, 08:23:39 PM »
I'm definitely looking for ways to reduce risk going into the next 8-10 years. I've been building a CD ladder for college tuition for my children; that expense will end in 2022, totally (not) by coincidence. However, the rest of my portfolio is around 70/30 stocks/bonds, or maybe a hair less stocks.

What I've done recently is to put more new 401k money into bonds, figuring that as interest rates rise, I will be buying cheaper and earning more. I'm wondering if I should go into a more extreme conservative allocation in my final working years and early retirement years, to avoid the hit from crash/recession at the wrong time. We're maxing out our 401k/403b plans plus tIRAs and HSA, so putting $66k/year away in tax-advantaged accounts. Extra taxable investment cash is going into dividend a dividend-heavy ETF. My wife will also keep working for several more years by choice, so we will have some income as a potential buffer (plus health insurance!)

As the sequence of return risk section of this site mentions, if you earn $10k/year, it can make up the lost income from $250k in portfolio losses; it's not as if we are helpless to do anything about it. But I do think it's a good time to look at this aspect of our retirement funds: 4 years away from retirement, deep into a bull market, and wages and interest rates on the rise.

TempusFugit

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #414 on: March 17, 2018, 10:36:57 AM »
I'm definitely looking for ways to reduce risk going into the next 8-10 years. I've been building a CD ladder for college tuition for my children; that expense will end in 2022, totally (not) by coincidence. However, the rest of my portfolio is around 70/30 stocks/bonds, or maybe a hair less stocks.

What I've done recently is to put more new 401k money into bonds, figuring that as interest rates rise, I will be buying cheaper and earning more. I'm wondering if I should go into a more extreme conservative allocation in my final working years and early retirement years, to avoid the hit from crash/recession at the wrong time. We're maxing out our 401k/403b plans plus tIRAs and HSA, so putting $66k/year away in tax-advantaged accounts. Extra taxable investment cash is going into dividend a dividend-heavy ETF. My wife will also keep working for several more years by choice, so we will have some income as a potential buffer (plus health insurance!)

As the sequence of return risk section of this site mentions, if you earn $10k/year, it can make up the lost income from $250k in portfolio losses; it's not as if we are helpless to do anything about it. But I do think it's a good time to look at this aspect of our retirement funds: 4 years away from retirement, deep into a bull market, and wages and interest rates on the rise.


8-10 years is a very long time.   Consider that even the great recession drop recovered from the very peak in 6 years.   Rising interest rates will actually hurt returns in a bond fund because the existing bonds will not be as desireable as new issue bonds at higher rates.

There is risk in any path you choose, but dont forget the more subtle risk of chosing low return investments.  You may not "lose" as much in a market drop, but you will still end up with less in the end because you may forgoe bigger gains.   You asset allocation of 70/30 is pretty conservative already (mine is about the same). 

Ultimately we all have to find an allocation that lets us sleep at night, but try to keep fear in its place.  Most of us in the forum are looking at retirements that will last decades, and over that period equities are the proven way to succeed.

living small

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #415 on: March 17, 2018, 02:00:41 PM »
posting to follow. I plan to FIRE 2022, need to stay PUMPED!

Well Respected Man

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #416 on: March 18, 2018, 06:16:51 PM »
I'm definitely looking for ways to reduce risk going into the next 8-10 years. I've been building a CD ladder for college tuition for my children; that expense will end in 2022, totally (not) by coincidence. However, the rest of my portfolio is around 70/30 stocks/bonds, or maybe a hair less stocks.

What I've done recently is to put more new 401k money into bonds, figuring that as interest rates rise, I will be buying cheaper and earning more. I'm wondering if I should go into a more extreme conservative allocation in my final working years and early retirement years, to avoid the hit from crash/recession at the wrong time. We're maxing out our 401k/403b plans plus tIRAs and HSA, so putting $66k/year away in tax-advantaged accounts. Extra taxable investment cash is going into dividend a dividend-heavy ETF. My wife will also keep working for several more years by choice, so we will have some income as a potential buffer (plus health insurance!)

As the sequence of return risk section of this site mentions, if you earn $10k/year, it can make up the lost income from $250k in portfolio losses; it's not as if we are helpless to do anything about it. But I do think it's a good time to look at this aspect of our retirement funds: 4 years away from retirement, deep into a bull market, and wages and interest rates on the rise.


8-10 years is a very long time.   Consider that even the great recession drop recovered from the very peak in 6 years.   Rising interest rates will actually hurt returns in a bond fund because the existing bonds will not be as desireable as new issue bonds at higher rates.

There is risk in any path you choose, but dont forget the more subtle risk of chosing low return investments.  You may not "lose" as much in a market drop, but you will still end up with less in the end because you may forgoe bigger gains.   You asset allocation of 70/30 is pretty conservative already (mine is about the same). 

Ultimately we all have to find an allocation that lets us sleep at night, but try to keep fear in its place.  Most of us in the forum are looking at retirements that will last decades, and over that period equities are the proven way to succeed.

I guess I forgot to include the link: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-intro/

Check out sections 14, 15, 19 and 3 for some ideas. To the extent that it's about fear, it's more a fear of not optimizing. We're never going to starve, and I could always stay in the work force, but that would be boring. There is clearly increased sequence of returns risk (SRR) for those approaching retirement and new retirees, when compared to accumulators or retirees who are well into their retirement. In addition, there is increased SRR when stocks are at historically higher valuations (the current CAPE ratio is 33, compared to ~17 historical average: http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/).

Given that we in this cohort are in the critical period where SRR is greatest, and with increased SRR because of valuations, it makes sense to mitigate SRR. Early retirement does mitigate SRR in a way, because we have a longer time horizon. However, that comes at the expense of a reduced safe withdrawal rate, maybe as low as 3.25%, according to the author at the link above. I will be following my plan above, buying more bonds as their prices fall and yields increase, and then probably start allocating more toward stocks in retirement.

dsw

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #417 on: March 20, 2018, 08:29:15 AM »

I guess I forgot to include the link: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-intro/



That's a really interesting article. I have seen that around before, but I've never gone through it in depth. I'm slowly working my way through it now. Thanks for posting it!

Thoughtful Mule

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #418 on: March 21, 2018, 10:14:55 AM »
Those articles do have some very good analysis. Set aside a couple hours if you want to read through the series. 

I couldn't help thinking that the analysis is done from a perspective of risk aversion. Reminds me of the recent MMM blog post about confidence. If you're confident I can make 10k-20k per year doing something engaging post FI, or even batten down the hatches and reduce expenses for a couple years. then all the detailed risk analyses can be ignored.  I guess its more of a philosophical question. Do you want to be sure of yourself by lowering your SWR and having a bigger stash, or by building your self confidence and being flexible with what the future brings? Obviously the answer is personal.


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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #419 on: March 21, 2018, 10:17:01 AM »
Those articles do have some very good analysis. Set aside a couple hours if you want to read through the series. 

I couldn't help thinking that the analysis is done from a perspective of risk aversion. Reminds me of the recent MMM blog post about confidence. If you're confident I can make 10k-20k per year doing something engaging post FI, or even batten down the hatches and reduce expenses for a couple years. then all the detailed risk analyses can be ignored.  I guess its more of a philosophical question. Do you want to be sure of yourself by lowering your SWR and having a bigger stash, or by building your self confidence and being flexible with what the future brings? Obviously the answer is personal.

Fantastic point there. As we get closer to our number, I'm leaning more toward the second camp =)

dsw

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #420 on: March 21, 2018, 10:28:39 AM »
Those articles do have some very good analysis. Set aside a couple hours if you want to read through the series. 

I couldn't help thinking that the analysis is done from a perspective of risk aversion. Reminds me of the recent MMM blog post about confidence. If you're confident I can make 10k-20k per year doing something engaging post FI, or even batten down the hatches and reduce expenses for a couple years. then all the detailed risk analyses can be ignored.  I guess its more of a philosophical question. Do you want to be sure of yourself by lowering your SWR and having a bigger stash, or by building your self confidence and being flexible with what the future brings? Obviously the answer is personal.

Yeah, that's a massively important question. I feel like I fall somewhere in between those poles. Early on, I have little doubt I'll be able to handle what comes, but further out having a larger margin of safety is comforting. I suspect my thoughts on this will fluctuate over the next few years though.

One criticism I have of those analyses (and one which has already been expressed on this site) is that they assume no flexibility on a plan. But in reality, as a sentient human, I can choose to work more or spend less as circumstances dictate. On the other hand, I think that more optimistic analyses discount either the risks or the consequences of a confluence of negative events affecting an early retirement plan. It's impossible to know what the exact correct answer is though, and as you said, ultimately the answer is personal.

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #421 on: April 19, 2018, 02:48:13 PM »
Just been reading the IMF suggest 2020 onwards may be turbulent times.... just wonderful.

Not seen any growth for 4 months now despite still pumping money in (so really a loss) and time ticks on.... I really will still aim for 2022 but I will be somewhat unhappy if the SHTF <2 years before FIRE!

TempusFugit

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #422 on: April 19, 2018, 03:21:25 PM »
I wouldn't get too concerned about it.  No one can (accurately) predict the future.  There have been economic doomsayers and Pollyannas basically every year for the past 100 years.  One camp says it's all coming to an end and that future returns will be dismal and the other camp says that we are in the early stages of an historic increase in productivity and innovation with the new technologies such as AI coming to fruition.

Trying to guess (and that's all it is) which side is right or where the truth lies in the middle is nothing but an exercise in frustration. 

Create a plan, set an asset allocation that let's you sleep at night, and let it go.  Spend less than you earn. Invest the difference in low cost index funds. Automate your savings. Those are things that you can control.   

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #423 on: April 19, 2018, 04:17:29 PM »
Early on, I have little doubt I'll be able to handle what comes, but further out having a larger margin of safety is comforting. I suspect my thoughts on this will fluctuate over the next few years though.

This is perfect, it so happens that the nature of FIRE models have almost all of the inherent risk built in the early years.  15 years into a 50 year FIRE most of the low-end outlier scenarios should have flushed themselves out, allowing you to make adjustments while you are still young and virile.

skip207

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #424 on: April 20, 2018, 04:00:38 AM »
We are still well on our way to FIRE target of 850k ish, NW sitting around 500k the last 4 months.

We are still putting at least 30-40k into the NW pot each year before any property / investment growth.  So we should in theory hit *at least* 600k by 2022.

The only saving grace is I have not taken into account the value of my business because I always said its technically not "mine" as its a LTD which I own shares in yes but anything could happen so it might be worth (for example) 100k now but in a few years who knows maybe nothing maybe it will be worth 10 times what it is now.

We just made some investments into equipment and machinery so even if we just close the doors we have a good pile of assets which should hopefully be a nice bonus.   

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #425 on: April 22, 2018, 06:48:27 PM »
posting to follow. I plan to FIRE 2022, need to stay PUMPED!

Yeah!!! Good luck, and keep the FIRE burning.

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #426 on: April 23, 2018, 06:16:00 AM »
Posting to follow!

My goal right now is to be able to FIRE if I want to, which might involve quitting the full time job and switching to consulting work.  Or not!   Currently at 12x projected retirement spending (including taxes, extra cushion, and health insurance costs before Medicare age).  I'm counting on Social Security still being around, but at a 20% discount.

As far as withdrawal strategies go:  My savings outside of employer retirement accounts are in a variant of the Permanent Portfolio, which includes cash and gold allocations in addition to stocks and long Treasuries.  It's an amazingly effective strategy and easily handles a 4% withdrawal rate as well as providing much more even returns than a stock/bond portfolio.  Check out this site to run your own tests:

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/retirement-spending/

RWD

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #427 on: April 23, 2018, 07:04:52 AM »
As far as withdrawal strategies go:  My savings outside of employer retirement accounts are in a variant of the Permanent Portfolio, which includes cash and gold allocations in addition to stocks and long Treasuries.  It's an amazingly effective strategy and easily handles a 4% withdrawal rate as well as providing much more even returns than a stock/bond portfolio.  Check out this site to run your own tests:

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/retirement-spending/

That is a great site, but be careful of overfitting the data and extrapolating forward. The data only goes back to 1970 and if you're including gold you need to ignore 1970-1974. You should read this thread on the Golden Butterfly to better understand building this type of asset allocation.

Arbitrage

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #428 on: April 24, 2018, 09:54:34 AM »
I originally posted in the 2023 thread when I was just starting out/committing to FIRE, but I'm going to bump myself to 2022 as a stretch goal.  Imminent changes in work benefits (increase in employer match due to dumping pension contributions that weren't particularly valuable to me anyhow, finally offering an HDHP/HSA option) will hopefully jump start us, particularly when compounded with other redoubled savings efforts.

2022, if we could do it by the fall, would result in the older kid jumping straight into middle school when most of the other kids are getting to know new faces (we'll need/want to move to a new location in order to FIRE).  Plus, earlier is better!  Financial goals might be tough to meet by that time period without some cooperation from the markets, but we'll see.  DW would be hard to convince to quit with less than ~$1.4m liquid, plus paid-off house in new area.  We're a bit more than halfway there with the stash, and hoping to add $100k/year while also working on 529s and the mortgage. 

The other challenge is keeping sufficiently motivated at work.  I've worked my way up to high-performer status, and have been rewarded with decent bumps in pay/rank over the past few years, though I'm still underpaid for my contribution level (pay is based more on age than the work you do, sadly).  I'm definitely finding myself more distracted by idle thoughts of FIRE, and continuing to excel at work is feeling like less of a priority, given the limited payoff. 


skip207

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #429 on: April 24, 2018, 01:46:56 PM »
Work for me has just become a means to an end, we just need to get past the line and that's it.  Only exception is effort in is proportional to profit out so I cant quite take my eye off the ball just yet.

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #430 on: April 24, 2018, 02:50:42 PM »
Keeping motivated at work is a major issue for me right now - the plan is 2022, but I'd rather hang out with my kids for their final summer where all 3 are home.  DS goes to college in the Fall.  Options are kind of bad because I keep mulling all the different options....

Sabbatical - get a different job in a year?

Quit outright - DH works until 60?

Plod along same as last year....

Health insurance is the golden handcuffs of my current job. $200/month for 100% coverage for our family of 5. DH's company we'd end up paying about $900/month and still not have 100% coverage for any emergencies. I need to find an easy low-stress job with excellent health benefits for very few hours. If anyone knows of one, let me know!
Why the hell are we going shopping? Buy sh*t, return other sh*t, go through sh*t and donate sh*t. Complain about having too much sh*t. Repeat. (Bracken Joy 2/17)




Arbitrage

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #431 on: April 25, 2018, 05:35:36 PM »
Ugh, 2022 can't come soon enough now.  Just got my "raise," which was the worst of my career (not counting the years where salaries were frozen due to various events), and trailed inflation.  This was despite getting the best performance review of my career.  New organization decided that they could basically disregard my performance review, as I transferred right after the period of performance.  In other words, the old boss did the performance review, but the new boss(es) got to decide how to rank me and choose the raise.  New bosses didn't want to be 'unfair' to their current team by ranking me above people who had been with the team longer. 

Unfortunately, the piss poor raise isn't going to speed up my progress to FIRE at all.  More belt tightening, perhaps?

nereo

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #432 on: April 26, 2018, 10:32:10 AM »
Ugh, 2022 can't come soon enough now.  Just got my "raise," which was the worst of my career (not counting the years where salaries were frozen due to various events), and trailed inflation.  This was despite getting the best performance review of my career.  New organization decided that they could basically disregard my performance review, as I transferred right after the period of performance.  In other words, the old boss did the performance review, but the new boss(es) got to decide how to rank me and choose the raise.  New bosses didn't want to be 'unfair' to their current team by ranking me above people who had been with the team longer. 

Unfortunately, the piss poor raise isn't going to speed up my progress to FIRE at all.  More belt tightening, perhaps?

That's unfortunate.  Knowing little about your specifics, my recommendation would be to polish up the ol' CV and see what else is out there. Even if you decide to remain at your current company you will hold all the bargaining power if you show up with a better-paying job offer in hand.

Then you can say "look, I had the best metrics ever last year, and previous boss ranked me very high, but my bonus did not reflect either of these things. Here's what another company thinks I am worth. What are you willing to pay me?"

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #433 on: April 26, 2018, 12:53:56 PM »
Ugh, 2022 can't come soon enough now.  Just got my "raise," which was the worst of my career (not counting the years where salaries were frozen due to various events), and trailed inflation.  This was despite getting the best performance review of my career.  New organization decided that they could basically disregard my performance review, as I transferred right after the period of performance.  In other words, the old boss did the performance review, but the new boss(es) got to decide how to rank me and choose the raise.  New bosses didn't want to be 'unfair' to their current team by ranking me above people who had been with the team longer. 

Unfortunately, the piss poor raise isn't going to speed up my progress to FIRE at all.  More belt tightening, perhaps?

That's unfortunate.  Knowing little about your specifics, my recommendation would be to polish up the ol' CV and see what else is out there. Even if you decide to remain at your current company you will hold all the bargaining power if you show up with a better-paying job offer in hand.

Then you can say "look, I had the best metrics ever last year, and previous boss ranked me very high, but my bonus did not reflect either of these things. Here's what another company thinks I am worth. What are you willing to pay me?"

I agree. Sometimes you have to go find your own raise. There's really no better time to find a job than when you don't need one.

sisto

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #434 on: April 26, 2018, 02:50:09 PM »
Just been reading the IMF suggest 2020 onwards may be turbulent times.... just wonderful.

Not seen any growth for 4 months now despite still pumping money in (so really a loss) and time ticks on.... I really will still aim for 2022 but I will be somewhat unhappy if the SHTF <2 years before FIRE!
You are buying at a big discount by pumping money in right now. I actually got lucky and my company stock went up. I cashed out a nice chunk I'd been sitting on and funded my ROTH IRA and put $20K into VTSAX. I've been trying to buy as much as I can right now. I'd much rather see the market crash now than instead of right after FIRE. I'm probably pulling the trigger in 2021, but 2022 is also an option for me right now. I will decide when the time gets closer.
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cloudsail

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #435 on: June 04, 2018, 12:04:40 PM »
When I started on the path to FIRE three years ago, my calculations put us at 2023. Now I think we can definitely hit 2022, or maybe even 2021. I'm nervous about a crash right when we are going to retire as well though.

ixtap

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #436 on: June 04, 2018, 12:14:45 PM »
When I started on the path to FIRE three years ago, my calculations put us at 2023. Now I think we can definitely hit 2022, or maybe even 2021. I'm nervous about a crash right when we are going to retire as well though.

This concerns us, as well. But at least we have the resources to survive a crash, then start job hunting when the economy approves.

dougules

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #437 on: June 05, 2018, 11:16:31 AM »
When I started on the path to FIRE three years ago, my calculations put us at 2023. Now I think we can definitely hit 2022, or maybe even 2021. I'm nervous about a crash right when we are going to retire as well though.

This concerns us, as well. But at least we have the resources to survive a crash, then start job hunting when the economy approves.

The idea behind the safe withdrawal rate is that you should be able to survive a crash without going broke or having to go to work again.  It doesn't mean your net worth would be looking pretty, but that doesn't matter.  That being said, I'm a little more paranoid than other people and I use 3.5% instead of 4%.  Some people that don't mind a little risk use 5%.

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #438 on: June 05, 2018, 12:44:09 PM »
This is why having 5-10 years of expenses in fixed income is not a bad idea. The success rate for a 70/30 portfolio and a 90/10 one are strikingly similar, the prior gives you the ability to use bonds/treasuries/CD's for even a 5+ year crash.

XC1984

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #439 on: June 11, 2018, 02:18:46 PM »
I'm in!! 

I've been talking about the idea of reaching Financial Independence and leaving the rat race for a while now. I'm a little late to the game, I didn't really realize I was on the "keeping up with the Jones" hampster wheel until I was into my 40s. I'm 52 and I will be 56 in 2022, but that's a lot better than 65!

I started putting together a plan and picked a date: 6/1/2022. I picked that date because that's when our youngest will be through college. Our finances are on track, but I still have a lot of work to do planning how we'll live, health insurance, etc.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2018, 03:53:58 PM by XC1984 »

XC1984

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #440 on: June 11, 2018, 02:24:18 PM »
Health insurance is the golden handcuffs of my current job. $200/month for 100% coverage for our family of 5. DH's company we'd end up paying about $900/month and still not have 100% coverage for any emergencies. I need to find an easy low-stress job with excellent health benefits for very few hours. If anyone knows of one, let me know!

I hear ya. Health insurance is the one issue that concerns me the most, especially since my SO has a preexisting condition. I have major research to do in that area!

daschtick

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #441 on: June 11, 2018, 05:37:10 PM »
Health insurance is the golden handcuffs of my current job. $200/month for 100% coverage for our family of 5. DH's company we'd end up paying about $900/month and still not have 100% coverage for any emergencies. I need to find an easy low-stress job with excellent health benefits for very few hours. If anyone knows of one, let me know!

I hear ya. Health insurance is the one issue that concerns me the most, especially since my SO has a preexisting condition. I have major research to do in that area!

Same here!  I need to stay until 2022 to get company subsidized healthcare from 55-65.  If they offered this to me today, I would run out of the door screaming for joy!  Once I achieve this, both my wife and I can be set free permanently. Forever.  Never 'have' to work again.  It's quite a carrot, but I often wonder if I will last 4 more years.  I keep telling myself, it is just like high school. -)

couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #442 on: June 12, 2018, 06:59:24 AM »
Health insurance is the golden handcuffs of my current job. $200/month for 100% coverage for our family of 5. DH's company we'd end up paying about $900/month and still not have 100% coverage for any emergencies. I need to find an easy low-stress job with excellent health benefits for very few hours. If anyone knows of one, let me know!

I hear ya. Health insurance is the one issue that concerns me the most, especially since my SO has a preexisting condition. I have major research to do in that area!

Same here!  I need to stay until 2022 to get company subsidized healthcare from 55-65.  If they offered this to me today, I would run out of the door screaming for joy!  Once I achieve this, both my wife and I can be set free permanently. Forever.  Never 'have' to work again.  It's quite a carrot, but I often wonder if I will last 4 more years.  I keep telling myself, it is just like high school. -)

High school seemed like FOREVER.  Somehow the time passes faster now that we're older though. It's just like high school only you're not the poor kid with pimples anymore!
Why the hell are we going shopping? Buy sh*t, return other sh*t, go through sh*t and donate sh*t. Complain about having too much sh*t. Repeat. (Bracken Joy 2/17)




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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #443 on: June 19, 2018, 07:58:04 AM »
My tracker estimates we will cross the line in 1500 days.  That puts us over the line around the middle of 2022. 

I have not been paying much attention to my NW and investments the last few months due to work but hoping to refocus towards the end of the summer. 

 

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #444 on: June 21, 2018, 02:49:45 PM »
Hoo boy.  Took a vacation in one of our potential retirement destinations, and was blown away by the place and the possibilities.  I don't know how I can make it to 2022.  Still have to fully convince DW, too...I've got my work cut out for me. 

couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #445 on: June 21, 2018, 03:31:02 PM »
Sooo....DH got a promotion at work that after bonus was more than my salary....I turned in my notice today and 7/20/18 is my "smoke break" date.  I'm giving myself permission to wait until next year after his bonus in March to either look for a job or not look for a job.  We're also moving to Virgina as soon as our house sells but in no event later than 9/1/18.  I'm still going to hang out here, since we're not FI until 2022.
Why the hell are we going shopping? Buy sh*t, return other sh*t, go through sh*t and donate sh*t. Complain about having too much sh*t. Repeat. (Bracken Joy 2/17)




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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #446 on: June 22, 2018, 12:37:36 AM »
I did some "back of the envelope" calculations today. I could retire now if the Australian Government would let me use my superannuation. Instead its another few years. 

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #447 on: June 22, 2018, 01:43:32 AM »
Sooo....DH got a promotion at work that after bonus was more than my salary....I turned in my notice today and 7/20/18 is my "smoke break" date.  I'm giving myself permission to wait until next year after his bonus in March to either look for a job or not look for a job.  We're also moving to Virgina as soon as our house sells but in no event later than 9/1/18.  I'm still going to hang out here, since we're not FI until 2022.

Awesome!! Congrats!

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #448 on: June 22, 2018, 01:49:24 AM »
I did some "back of the envelope" calculations today. I could retire now if the Australian Government would let me use my superannuation. Instead its another few years.

I am not an Australian, but I think the UK pension rules are similar. Can you remortgage or take out a loan to bridge the gap? It brings my FIRE date forward considerably.

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #449 on: June 30, 2018, 06:31:12 PM »
I'm joining this group and it shouldn't be a problem to make 2022 as I was initially aiming for 2020. I'm still aiming for a 5% WR with hopefully a year or two expenses saved up in cash/paid leave.