Author Topic: 2022 FIRE cohort  (Read 51880 times)

MrThatsDifferent

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #250 on: February 24, 2017, 04:54:25 PM »
I'm pretty sure that this is my group. I was hoping to pull this off in 2021 but I think I'll need the extra year so I don't need to invest in real estate. Sigh.

londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #251 on: February 26, 2017, 02:52:21 PM »
Hi there,
As of 4 days ago, i am now less than 5 years away from our FIRE date (2/2/22). Last year was very good, and the market has been good to us (that and a couple of investment bets on oil and commodities :)

Here is the NW path to the next 5 years, if the FIRE gods want it...

12/2012 169k actual
12/2013 616k actual
12/2014 1,047k actual
12/2015 1,326k actual
12/2016 1,509k actual
12/2017 1,738k projected
12/2018 1,952k projected
12/2019 2,182k projected
12/2020 2,425k projected
12/2021 2,707k projected
2/2/22 2,825k projected

dougules

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #252 on: February 27, 2017, 10:46:18 AM »
Hi there,
As of 4 days ago, i am now less than 5 years away from our FIRE date (2/2/22). Last year was very good, and the market has been good to us (that and a couple of investment bets on oil and commodities :)

Here is the NW path to the next 5 years, if the FIRE gods want it...

12/2012 169k actual
12/2013 616k actual
12/2014 1,047k actual
12/2015 1,326k actual
12/2016 1,509k actual
12/2017 1,738k projected
12/2018 1,952k projected
12/2019 2,182k projected
12/2020 2,425k projected
12/2021 2,707k projected
2/2/22 2,825k projected

Wow.  Is London really that expensive?

RWD

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #253 on: February 27, 2017, 11:48:41 AM »
Hi there,
As of 4 days ago, i am now less than 5 years away from our FIRE date (2/2/22). Last year was very good, and the market has been good to us (that and a couple of investment bets on oil and commodities :)

Here is the NW path to the next 5 years, if the FIRE gods want it...

12/2012 169k actual
12/2013 616k actual
12/2014 1,047k actual
12/2015 1,326k actual
12/2016 1,509k actual
12/2017 1,738k projected
12/2018 1,952k projected
12/2019 2,182k projected
12/2020 2,425k projected
12/2021 2,707k projected
2/2/22 2,825k projected

Wow.  Is London really that expensive?

Well, originally his goal was 8 million in 2035!

londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #254 on: February 27, 2017, 02:41:44 PM »

Wow.  Is London really that expensive?

Well, actually we wouldn't retire in London. We would also be very risk adverse and are planning to retire on a SWR of 3% on invested assets of 2.0-2.2m. So that's more like around 60k a year.


Well, originally his goal was 8 million in 2035!

Indeed, but that was before we fully realized the impact of mustachianism... That philosophy made us realize that we wanted to enjoy life with our small children and our younger selves while we could... We came to the conclusion that there was nothing you could do with 8m that you couldn't do with +/- 3m, and that would be worth spending another 13years of your life behind a desk.

Clean Shaven

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #255 on: March 02, 2017, 02:24:04 PM »
I'm leaving the 2022 group, and joining the 2018 group.  Fed up with work, savings have been going well, so ready to pull the plug sooner than later.

dougules

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #256 on: March 02, 2017, 03:43:56 PM »
I'm leaving the 2022 group, and joining the 2018 group.  Fed up with work, savings have been going well, so ready to pull the plug sooner than later.

Congrats

FrozenBits

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #257 on: March 02, 2017, 03:48:43 PM »
I'm leaving the 2022 group, and joining the 2018 group.  Fed up with work, savings have been going well, so ready to pull the plug sooner than later.
Wow, taking a 4 year jump!

Congrats!

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couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #258 on: March 02, 2017, 04:04:33 PM »
I'm leaving the 2022 group, and joining the 2018 group.  Fed up with work, savings have been going well, so ready to pull the plug sooner than later.

Congratulations!  Don't forget to check in with us after you FIRE to inspire us to save more and spend less.
Why the hell are we going shopping? Buy sh*t, return other sh*t, go through sh*t and donate sh*t. Complain about having too much sh*t. Repeat. (Bracken Joy 2/17)




Clean Shaven

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #259 on: March 02, 2017, 05:04:51 PM »
Thanks!  Hoping everything goes as planned.  If not, guess I'll do OMY.... though right now, 2017 feels like it's OMY already. 

I may try to go part time at my current work, but I don't think anyone does that here.  That sort of exception seems to be for medical or maternity leave only.  I can't really ask about it until I'm ready to leave.  :-)

frugaldevil

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #260 on: March 02, 2017, 07:22:48 PM »
Hi all. Big milestone as I closed up Feb. We joined the double comma club! We're only at 12x expenses in invested assets, so more work to be done. But nice to celebrate along the way.

In frugal fashion, I celebrated with an extra Kirkland beer. 😁

FrozenBits

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #261 on: March 02, 2017, 08:33:23 PM »
Congrats frugaldevil!

Looks like your FIRE number is around 2.1M? That's a huge stache! I'm guessing your in a pretty HCOL area?

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frugaldevil

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #262 on: March 03, 2017, 09:21:36 AM »
No, target is about $1.25m. Investments are about $650k right now. Rest is equity in a house and rental.

sisto

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #263 on: March 03, 2017, 12:15:20 PM »
Hi all. Big milestone as I closed up Feb. We joined the double comma club! We're only at 12x expenses in invested assets, so more work to be done. But nice to celebrate along the way.

In frugal fashion, I celebrated with an extra Kirkland beer. 😁
I'm basically in the same exact boat as you are. I just hit the double comma club in assets, but still sitting at 12.7x expenses in invested assets.
Jack of all trades, master of none

frugaldevil

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #264 on: March 06, 2017, 07:14:47 PM »
I am curious to get the group's thoughts on an asset allocation/location question.

Now that we're 5 years out, is anyone thinking about changing their asset allocation or where their asset classes reside?

My primary plan is to use a Roth conversion ladder, which means I need 5 years of expenses in an accessible account before I can access the converted money. I've decided to maintain my asset allocation (75% stock, 15% bonds, 10% REIT) but try to consolidate my bonds and REITs into accounts I'll use for that 5-year period. My thought is that because I'll actually need that money in 5 to 10 years, it should be more conservatively allocated than my long term money.

In my case that means I'm weighting my contributions to bonds and REITs in my 457, Roth and taxable accounts. I know there's a bit of a tax cost to this as these tend to kick off dividends (problem in taxable account) and won't appreciate as fast (opportunity cost in Roth account). But I think it's worth the trade off to protect money I'll need in the shorter term.

Anybody else thinking about this issue yet?

FrozenBits

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #265 on: March 06, 2017, 07:50:47 PM »


I am curious to get the group's thoughts on an asset allocation/location question.

Now that we're 5 years out, is anyone thinking about changing their asset allocation or where their asset classes reside?

My primary plan is to use a Roth conversion ladder, which means I need 5 years of expenses in an accessible account before I can access the converted money. I've decided to maintain my asset allocation (75% stock, 15% bonds, 10% REIT) but try to consolidate my bonds and REITs into accounts I'll use for that 5-year period. My thought is that because I'll actually need that money in 5 to 10 years, it should be more conservatively allocated than my long term money.

In my case that means I'm weighting my contributions to bonds and REITs in my 457, Roth and taxable accounts. I know there's a bit of a tax cost to this as these tend to kick off dividends (problem in taxable account) and won't appreciate as fast (opportunity cost in Roth account). But I think it's worth the trade off to protect money I'll need in the shorter term.

Anybody else thinking about this issue yet?

I just read the following article and was really impressed with it.

http://www.gocurrycracker.com/path-100-equities/

I think I'll be sticking with 100% equities once I actually FIRE.  I'm also planning on being flexible with work, so if the market does take a drastic drop, I can earn some side income to offset the loss or even add to investments.


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2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #266 on: March 07, 2017, 07:02:50 AM »
Life is too short, moving my FIRE date up by 4 months to 1/1/2022....you read it here first.
"A small house can hold as much happiness as a big one." - Fortune Cookie

33 Months till FIRE - Stop by, or stay a while.....
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rachael talcott

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #267 on: March 07, 2017, 07:14:49 AM »
I am curious to get the group's thoughts on an asset allocation/location question.

Now that we're 5 years out, is anyone thinking about changing their asset allocation or where their asset classes reside?

My primary plan is to use a Roth conversion ladder, which means I need 5 years of expenses in an accessible account before I can access the converted money. I've decided to maintain my asset allocation (75% stock, 15% bonds, 10% REIT) but try to consolidate my bonds and REITs into accounts I'll use for that 5-year period. My thought is that because I'll actually need that money in 5 to 10 years, it should be more conservatively allocated than my long term money.

In my case that means I'm weighting my contributions to bonds and REITs in my 457, Roth and taxable accounts. I know there's a bit of a tax cost to this as these tend to kick off dividends (problem in taxable account) and won't appreciate as fast (opportunity cost in Roth account). But I think it's worth the trade off to protect money I'll need in the shorter term.

Anybody else thinking about this issue yet?

Yeah, I've been playing around with FIREcalc.  It has an "investigate changing my allocation" button on the far right tab.  At least with my numbers, 100% stock doesn't have more risk of failure than 80%, and below 80% the risk goes up. 

homestead neohio

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #268 on: March 07, 2017, 12:02:06 PM »
About AA, there was some discussion here last summer:

I'm wondering if anyone is contemplating becoming more conservative with their AA given we are only 6yrs from FI?  I'm considering adding in some Long Term Treasuries and REIT just to add some more diversity, but it's just a thought for now. I want to do some more reading on it before making any changes.

No, I'm still 90% equities, 10% REIT until I hit FI.  It has a higher likelihood of propelling me to FI faster than going with bonds.  However, I am considering what AA I'll want when I'm in ER.  I can stomach the dips just fine in accumulation phase (stocks are on sale!) but I don't think it would be quite the same in drawdown.  I'm still fairly risk tolerant, but don't want to have to sell stocks in a down market just to pay baseline expenses.  Just starting to mull this over given 6 years out, but I want to have the plan in place and a chance to reconsider it a few times before pulling the trigger.  Converting from "accumulation AA" to "drawdown AA" may be interesting, too.  Probably won't be done overnight, and any changes in taxable accounts will have to be considered for tax liability due to gains.  But I can't just take gains in tax-deferred accounts, which I'll be too young to access, and there is a 5 year delay on the ROTH conversion ladder. The sooner I figure out what I'll be transitioning to, the sooner I can plan how to do it efficiently.  Anyone else pondering this?

Since posting the above my approach to FIRE has changed, but I'm keeping my AA the same.  At the beginning of 2018 I'll be leaving my current job, severance will provide a temporary boost to the stache.  I'll then be close enough that I can go Semi-FIRE in 2018 and accept lower income for more enjoyable work, maybe even PT or side gig only.  The plan is to live off what I make and let the stache grow until it hits my FIRE number, which may still happen in 2022 even without further contributions in 2019 and beyond.  Health care is still the wild card, but there is plenty of time to see what's coming and fine tune the approach.  Still planning for an AA change to include 20% bonds once I reach full FIRE.

frugaldevil

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #269 on: March 07, 2017, 07:19:16 PM »
@FrozenBits: Thanks for replying. I've seen the GCC article and others making the case for 100% equities. Like rachael_talcott, the sims I've played with show diminishing marginal returns to more equities with respect to probability of success after about 75-80%. So my AA trades off a small drop in success probabilities for a larger "smoothing" of the ride.

In general I agree that money is fungible and I support a holistic, total-return approach to investing. However, it seems like the practical limitations on access to money in different types of accounts forces a bit of a "bucket" approach in that certain pots of money will "have" to be used first.

Another alternative would be to flex your retirement date so that you could handle volatility in your accessible pots of money that you'd need first. But then you may not be in the 2022 thread. :)

Unique User

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #270 on: March 15, 2017, 05:26:49 PM »
I'm still on track, we just went over the seven figure mark this year!  We moved spouse's retirement date up to 2020, I'm still planning on sticking around until 2021 or 2022, I think.  Depending on how college plays out and the whole health insurance possible disaster or not, finishing in 2020 also and working part time contracts could be in my future instead.  Right now, it's heads down, yay that neither of us got laid off this year and keep on socking it away.

I had been planning on 2020 for my spouse and 2021 for me, now who knows.  I'll be 52 in 2021 and my calculations did not include $30k per year in health insurance premiums for the two of us.  This is depressing. 

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #271 on: March 16, 2017, 07:15:30 AM »
I'm still on track, we just went over the seven figure mark this year!  We moved spouse's retirement date up to 2020, I'm still planning on sticking around until 2021 or 2022, I think.  Depending on how college plays out and the whole health insurance possible disaster or not, finishing in 2020 also and working part time contracts could be in my future instead.  Right now, it's heads down, yay that neither of us got laid off this year and keep on socking it away.

I had been planning on 2020 for my spouse and 2021 for me, now who knows.  I'll be 52 in 2021 and my calculations did not include $30k per year in health insurance premiums for the two of us.  This is depressing.

Why do you assume $30k a year in health insurance premiums per annum?

Geographical arbitrage, medical tourism, self insurance, catastrophic insurance, etc......there are many ways to skin a cat.
"A small house can hold as much happiness as a big one." - Fortune Cookie

33 Months till FIRE - Stop by, or stay a while.....
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/fire-by-thirty-five-chronicles-36-months-till-sabbatical!/

couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #272 on: March 16, 2017, 09:15:16 AM »
I am now debating the benefit of one person working 30 hours per week for the health benefits for longer and trading of who works when vs. both FIRE at the same time. However, we'd like our 30 hours of work to be "low stress" type of work.  I'm already at the 30 hours per week for the health benefits.
Why the hell are we going shopping? Buy sh*t, return other sh*t, go through sh*t and donate sh*t. Complain about having too much sh*t. Repeat. (Bracken Joy 2/17)




2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #273 on: March 16, 2017, 09:49:43 AM »
I am now debating the benefit of one person working 30 hours per week for the health benefits for longer and trading of who works when vs. both FIRE at the same time. However, we'd like our 30 hours of work to be "low stress" type of work.  I'm already at the 30 hours per week for the health benefits.

I can think of many ways of tackling this.

Imagine splitting a work from home position with your spouse? Even if it's technically "full time" you could probably work well below the 40 hours AND divvy up the workload.
"A small house can hold as much happiness as a big one." - Fortune Cookie

33 Months till FIRE - Stop by, or stay a while.....
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/fire-by-thirty-five-chronicles-36-months-till-sabbatical!/

Jardeny

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #274 on: March 16, 2017, 11:23:31 AM »
Posting to follow. We're planning for hubby to semi-Fire by end of 2018 and me to follow suit by no later than 2022. Sharing the same concerns as others surrounding the logistics of health care, specially since I have a few pre-existing conditions. But time will tell and we have a few years to figure this out.


couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #275 on: March 16, 2017, 11:31:23 AM »
Posting to follow. We're planning for hubby to semi-Fire by end of 2018 and me to follow suit by no later than 2022. Sharing the same concerns as others surrounding the logistics of health care, specially since I have a few pre-existing conditions. But time will tell and we have a few years to figure this out.

DH takes medication that runs $48K+ a year, so we're never going without health insurance. Even if we have to pay COBRA rates between jobs....
Why the hell are we going shopping? Buy sh*t, return other sh*t, go through sh*t and donate sh*t. Complain about having too much sh*t. Repeat. (Bracken Joy 2/17)




Steveray7071

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #276 on: March 16, 2017, 01:53:44 PM »
Joining!  date is 6/13/2022..  Will be 37.. Goal is 175K in 401k, 50k cash, paid off house, 10 rental houses netting 15k/yr after split with business partner & expenses, 15k/yr from VA and 26k/yr expenses

Currently:  31yrs old, 85k in 401k, 200k owed on house (house worth 330k) 4 rental houses, 15k/yr VA, Current savings rate is .55% or about 45k/yr and should increase about 3k/yr

Short some details, but that's the short version of my plan (still some gaps to fill).

Unique User

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #277 on: March 17, 2017, 07:15:13 AM »
I'm still on track, we just went over the seven figure mark this year!  We moved spouse's retirement date up to 2020, I'm still planning on sticking around until 2021 or 2022, I think.  Depending on how college plays out and the whole health insurance possible disaster or not, finishing in 2020 also and working part time contracts could be in my future instead.  Right now, it's heads down, yay that neither of us got laid off this year and keep on socking it away.

I had been planning on 2020 for my spouse and 2021 for me, now who knows.  I'll be 52 in 2021 and my calculations did not include $30k per year in health insurance premiums for the two of us.  This is depressing.

Why do you assume $30k a year in health insurance premiums per annum?

Geographical arbitrage, medical tourism, self insurance, catastrophic insurance, etc......there are many ways to skin a cat.

I took the projections of around $15k in insurance premiums for an individual with the AHCA and doubled them.  Simplistic I know and probably there will be a way for it to be less.  I'm very healthy and have always carried insurance of one form or another, but, I have a husband who had cancer in the last few years and was uninsurable even before that.   We were on the individual market for years pre-ACA and could only afford catastrophic policies so I am well aware of the pitfalls and options.  My husband's policy back then (pre-cancer) had a $20k deductible, $1M lifetime cap, excluded his pre-existing conditions and was still expensive.  And when he needed care, neurologists refused to see him because of the insurance he had.  One came right out and told me that treatment could be $10k to $15k and who has that kind of money.  Even after I told them I could pay, they said they weren't taking new patients without insurance because in their eyes his insurance was not insurance.  Self-insurance?  The bills for his cancer treatment were huge and could have been much higher.  I'm not willing to risk bankruptcy.  I'll probably calm down and I know my worst projections won't be true when I'm ready in 2021, but the AHCA as written will hit early retirees hard. 

couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #278 on: March 17, 2017, 01:27:42 PM »
Joining!  date is 6/13/2022..  Will be 37.. Goal is 175K in 401k, 50k cash, paid off house, 10 rental houses netting 15k/yr after split with business partner & expenses, 15k/yr from VA and 26k/yr expenses

Currently:  31yrs old, 85k in 401k, 200k owed on house (house worth 330k) 4 rental houses, 15k/yr VA, Current savings rate is .55% or about 45k/yr and should increase about 3k/yr

Short some details, but that's the short version of my plan (still some gaps to fill).

Welcome!  Will you be managing the rental houses in FIRE or farming that job out?  I'm not the Internet Retirement Police - I just think it would be a cool FIRE gig with lots of flexibility.
Why the hell are we going shopping? Buy sh*t, return other sh*t, go through sh*t and donate sh*t. Complain about having too much sh*t. Repeat. (Bracken Joy 2/17)




rob in cal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #279 on: March 24, 2017, 06:01:09 PM »
   Of late the amount of deliveries I've been doing has come down a bit, and my wife asked if I was concerned, but then caught herself and said that I probably wasn't as I was going to retire in a few years anyway.  Awesome how my initial idea has taken off, as at first she was quite skeptical of its feasibility.
    One new wrinkle that I like is a phase down FIRE in which I jettison shifts gradually, so that by 2022 I would be close to being done. Its possible that to retain the goodwill of the majority owner of the restaurant, he may want me to keep doing something (like cover for other drivers in the winter months, around the holidays, train new drivers, things like that) to help out, and that wouldn't be the end of the world.  The ownership checks are the most dependable form of my passive income stream, and represent about 30% of total living expenses.  However, under this scenario  most of  our non winter months would be free and that's my most important issue, my desire to travel in the non-winter months.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #280 on: March 24, 2017, 07:09:45 PM »
I am torn between taking a 6-12 month sabbatical in 2020 and working a bit past 2022, or just toughing it out and FIREing for good in 2022.
"A small house can hold as much happiness as a big one." - Fortune Cookie

33 Months till FIRE - Stop by, or stay a while.....
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/fire-by-thirty-five-chronicles-36-months-till-sabbatical!/

Axecleaver

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #281 on: March 25, 2017, 06:28:29 AM »
I think you have to be open to both possibilities and react to the circumstances when you get there. I was thinking of retiring in 2020 after my NY contract ended, but now I'll go to 2022 before I think about slowing down. But there will be lots of checkpoints between here and there, and bends in the road that we didn't see coming.

Brother Esau

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #282 on: March 26, 2017, 07:34:15 AM »
2022 is it! I will be 55 and DW will be 50. Currently investments are $820k and home equity is $220k. House will be paid off by 2022. Probably already FI now but we live in a HCOL area.

Exhale

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #283 on: March 26, 2017, 08:54:25 AM »
I am torn between taking a 6-12 month sabbatical in 2020 and working a bit past 2022, or just toughing it out and FIREing for good in 2022.

Last night I watched this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzwDLJ09E3c Starting at 10:23 the guy being interviewed talked about why he decide to lose extra income and retire four years earlier than he had originally planned.

I'm not pushing that option. In fact, due to issues re: accessing good healthcare, I don't know when I'll be able to FIRE. However, I thought you might enjoy listening to the interview and seeing what he's doing with his extra four years.

Best of luck!

BlueHouse

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #284 on: March 28, 2017, 11:49:38 AM »
I didn't really believe I could be in this group when I first signed up, but I am really starting to believe it now.  And I'm starting to make life changes because of it.  So exciting! 

Yep, healthcare will matter for me. 
Sometimes nothing can be a real cool hand

BGordon

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #285 on: March 28, 2017, 01:05:43 PM »
I'm new to this forum and still trying to figure out when I will be able to make the leap.  More realistically, I probably belong in the 2025 club or later, but Jan 2022 is going to be my goal.  I should know more once I figure out what my actual living expenses "are/will be" and where I plan to live.  Wish me luck!

Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #286 on: March 28, 2017, 03:31:46 PM »
I am torn between taking a 6-12 month sabbatical in 2020 and working a bit past 2022, or just toughing it out and FIREing for good in 2022.

2B1S, we've discussed this stuff before, I'm sure you are aware my thought processes are mirroring yours. I've really been able to break this down to a couple of possibilities of concern.
  • I grind it out until full FIRE, end up miserable the last 3-4 years because I'm so burnt out, maybe even OMY for safety. A year afterwards, I start craving something about work and go back, at least part time.
  • I take a sabbatical and absolutely love it soo much, I find it near impossible to work for money ever again.
Here's my solution.  I'm taking my month off soon, it should invigorate me, but I doubt it'll be a good test of true FIRE. 2017 is the year of lifestyle buy-in costs.  I'm making some purchases I've delayed which will support the mobile lifestyle I intend to partake in after FIRE.  In many ways I've used this lifestyle as a means to increase income and reduce costs already, so I am going all-in.  From a web-of-goals standpoint it'll payoff no matter when I FIRE, Semi-FIRE, or whatever.  2018 is the year of absolute minimized costs.  I am going to see what my true bare minimum cash flow needs are in this lifestyle. Once established, I have a real world baseline.  It's highly doubtful I can ERE-it, but something in the realm of sub-18k is probably possible... we shall see!

After 2018 I intend to accumulate until I'm at 20X absolute baseline.  This may be in 2019, depending on how low I can go. Then I'm done.  I will keep my professional license, which will require maybe 100 hrs of paid work per year, but that's it, no more unless I truly want it without money as a consideration. After a year or two, if # 1 happens, great, at least I didn't go overboard and waste years reaching some imaginary level of enough.  If #2 happens, it's OK. I have enough FU money not to worry.  If not working is REALLY that important 10 years later,  I can find a way to make it happen.  Besides, returns may be better than the 3.5% real needed to hold me over until SS with 20X.  I'm also transitioning my investments to post-FIRE allocations with new contributions.

My guess is I will end somewhere between the two.  PT or intermittent FT professional work, or maybe just low-wage, stress free work for "social" reasons. 

I'm not too concerned with health care...

Let me me Strawman respond, "OMG, Classical_Liberal you MUST be F'en crazy!"

Maybe I am Mr. Strawman, but here are my thoughts.  Even if ACA and any or all federal subsidies go away, I still believe most states will have options for low-income folks, they did before ACA, why wouldn't they after? If I get sick and my premiums skyrocket, I'll play a geographic arbitrage game, if needed, to find affordable coverage.  After all, mobility has been part of my FIRE plan all along. I'm not sitting my life out, waiting for some politician to do her/his job.  Frankly, if I really take care of myself, odds getting a non-lifestyle related chronic illness too many years before medicare are less likely than being healthy (I've tried researching it, but its too complex to know real real stats). I'm gonna actively play the odds, hope for the best and make changes if the worst happens. 

I feel a weight has been lifted now that I have a true plan; this whole thing suddenly seems real.

Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #287 on: March 28, 2017, 03:32:50 PM »
I'm new to this forum and still trying to figure out when I will be able to make the leap.  More realistically, I probably belong in the 2025 club or later, but Jan 2022 is going to be my goal.  I should know more once I figure out what my actual living expenses "are/will be" and where I plan to live.  Wish me luck!
2022 is it! I will be 55 and DW will be 50. Currently investments are $820k and home equity is $220k. House will be paid off by 2022. Probably already FI now but we live in a HCOL area.

Welcome & Welcome!

Brother Esau

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #288 on: March 28, 2017, 05:41:16 PM »
I'm new to this forum and still trying to figure out when I will be able to make the leap.  More realistically, I probably belong in the 2025 club or later, but Jan 2022 is going to be my goal.  I should know more once I figure out what my actual living expenses "are/will be" and where I plan to live.  Wish me luck!
2022 is it! I will be 55 and DW will be 50. Currently investments are $820k and home equity is $220k. House will be paid off by 2022. Probably already FI now but we live in a HCOL area.

Welcome & Welcome!

Thank you!

Brother Esau

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #289 on: March 28, 2017, 05:46:40 PM »
I didn't really believe I could be in this group when I first signed up, but I am really starting to believe it now.  And I'm starting to make life changes because of it.  So exciting! 

Yep, healthcare will matter for me.

Healthcare is our biggest wild card with FIRE. Any advice on how to control that or do you have fingers crossed like me?

Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #290 on: March 28, 2017, 06:20:42 PM »
I didn't really believe I could be in this group when I first signed up, but I am really starting to believe it now.  And I'm starting to make life changes because of it.  So exciting! 

Yep, healthcare will matter for me.

Healthcare is our biggest wild card with FIRE. Any advice on how to control that or do you have fingers crossed like me?

Since the ACA is still in play, here's a good article from Root of Good.  Essentially minimize spending, then you have the option to manufacture a MAGI to qualify for the subsidies you desire.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #291 on: March 28, 2017, 08:04:14 PM »

Since the ACA is still in play, here's a good article from Root of Good.  Essentially minimize spending, then you have the option to manufacture a MAGI to qualify for the subsidies you desire.

Healthcare is going to be the biggie for me.

I will be baseline FI sans healthcare by the time I'm ready to take sabbatical in March 2020. Should have right around 25X barebone expenses. ($1300-1400/month). I will feel a heck of a lot more comfortable considering myself full blown FIRE'd if we have access to subsidized health care.
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Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #292 on: March 28, 2017, 08:45:31 PM »
Healthcare is going to be the biggie for me.

I will be baseline FI sans healthcare by the time I'm ready to take sabbatical in March 2020. Should have right around 25X barebone expenses. ($1300-1400/month). I will feel a heck of a lot more comfortable considering myself full blown FIRE'd if we have access to subsidized health care.

I get the healthcare hangup.  I really do.  But you are so young!  PreACA when I went back to school at 31 for my now career, I picked up a disaster policy, like the one MMM talked about in his early blogging.  It ran me about $1300 a year on average for 3 years and I smoked back then.  If ACA goes away plans like that will make a reemergence (surely they will cost a little more now). The problem with nonsubsidized healthcare isn't the year you get sick.  Yes, with a catastrophic plan you'd be hit up with 10K+ in medical bills, but that's totally handleable for someone with baseline FIRE assets.  The problem is the increased premiums going forward once you're healthy again.  This is where ACA is the saving grace (or many preACA state subsidy plans). 

If you are unlucky enough to become chronically ill, even worse (recurring costs AND high premiums).  The thing about chronic illness...it sucks, really, really bad!  I would guess almost any chronically ill COPD, CHF, cancer, etc patient, who can barely get up out of bed, would gladly spend their entire net worth to have even one year of freedom while being healthy.  As worried as you are now about a medical bankruptcy, if you or someone in your family becomes chronically ill, you will wish you had spent more time pursuing life while you were healthy. I see this almost daily, it's the main reason I'm not messing around anymore :)

I realized being coupled up or having kids changes the logistics.  Everyone has to make their own decisions regarding this risk.  I'm just trying to counter some of the overwhelming amount of fear regarding this subject on the forum with a reality check. ACA is still here, the longer federal subsidies exist the more likely they will stay in some form. If you FIRE and become chronically ill before medicare, your WR will be a very far second concern and geographic arbitrage will be a real option.

BGordon

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #293 on: March 28, 2017, 09:55:26 PM »
I guess I haven't put that much thought into health care.  I have just assumed it won't be that big of an issue.  I plan on moving to Europe or Central/South America.  My understanding is that health care costs are much more reasonable in those locations.  Also hoping that they will eventually fix health care in this country (but not holding my breath).

VolcanicArts

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #294 on: March 28, 2017, 10:58:50 PM »
I'm probably in this group. Although I won't be completely giving up work in 2022, I will have enough yield coming in to support me through any rough patches and will be phasing out to part time 25 hrs a week by this point just to keep up my investments.

BGordon

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #295 on: March 30, 2017, 05:14:16 PM »
I'm new to this forum and still trying to figure out when I will be able to make the leap.  More realistically, I probably belong in the 2025 club or later, but Jan 2022 is going to be my goal.  I should know more once I figure out what my actual living expenses "are/will be" and where I plan to live.  Wish me luck!

Per my earlier post I am trying to build a plan and have a few questions for those of you who have already built one.  I plan on moving to Europe, (likely Portugal).  Most of the cities I've been considering are LCOL areas and I am finding reports of people living in these areas for approximately $1500 US a month.  I don't think these estimates consider Health Care, and knowing that my wife and I are not the most frugal and will want to travel around Europe each year I am using $4,000 per month or $50k as an annual expense number.  If I'm correct, this number should be multiplied by 25 to arrive at $1.2 million.  Additionally, I was thinking I would add $300k to purchase an apartment.  So the grand total I'm seeing is $1.5 million. 

Do my calculations and assumptions make sense? 

Also, when building my spreadsheets for Investment Growth I am using 6% pre retirement and 4% post retirement.  Do those percentages make sense, or should I be using different growth percentages?

Thanks in advance for any assistance.

Brother Esau

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #296 on: March 30, 2017, 06:15:19 PM »
I'm probably in this group. Although I won't be completely giving up work in 2022, I will have enough yield coming in to support me through any rough patches and will be phasing out to part time 25 hrs a week by this point just to keep up my investments.

Welcome! The part time gig is appealing to me to since I actually enjoy the work I do.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #297 on: March 30, 2017, 07:10:47 PM »
I'm new to this forum and still trying to figure out when I will be able to make the leap.  More realistically, I probably belong in the 2025 club or later, but Jan 2022 is going to be my goal.  I should know more once I figure out what my actual living expenses "are/will be" and where I plan to live.  Wish me luck!

Per my earlier post I am trying to build a plan and have a few questions for those of you who have already built one.  I plan on moving to Europe, (likely Portugal).  Most of the cities I've been considering are LCOL areas and I am finding reports of people living in these areas for approximately $1500 US a month.  I don't think these estimates consider Health Care, and knowing that my wife and I are not the most frugal and will want to travel around Europe each year I am using $4,000 per month or $50k as an annual expense number.  If I'm correct, this number should be multiplied by 25 to arrive at $1.2 million.  Additionally, I was thinking I would add $300k to purchase an apartment.  So the grand total I'm seeing is $1.5 million. 

Do my calculations and assumptions make sense? 

Also, when building my spreadsheets for Investment Growth I am using 6% pre retirement and 4% post retirement.  Do those percentages make sense, or should I be using different growth percentages?

Thanks in advance for any assistance.

Sort of, $300k is WAY to much for an apartment in a LCOL area.

Apartments can be had for $40-100k.

Also, for a place like portugal, if $1500 is a comfortable living, $2500-3000/month will provide an insanely abundant lifestyle, all in with healthcare.
"A small house can hold as much happiness as a big one." - Fortune Cookie

33 Months till FIRE - Stop by, or stay a while.....
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/fire-by-thirty-five-chronicles-36-months-till-sabbatical!/

BGordon

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #298 on: March 30, 2017, 08:02:42 PM »

Sort of, $300k is WAY to much for an apartment in a LCOL area.

Apartments can be had for $40-100k.

Also, for a place like portugal, if $1500 is a comfortable living, $2500-3000/month will provide an insanely abundant lifestyle, all in with healthcare.

Thanks for the response.  Based on the high end of your ranges looks like we would do ok with $1 million.  That sounds great, considering we already have a little more than that right now.  I was worried that we wouldn't have enough by 2022, but sounds like anything we accumulate between now and then will serve as a good cushion in the event we choose a more expensive location (Portugal is probably the cheapest option).

Playing with Fire UK

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #299 on: March 31, 2017, 01:49:41 AM »
Per my earlier post I am trying to build a plan and have a few questions for those of you who have already built one.  I plan on moving to Europe, (likely Portugal).  Most of the cities I've been considering are LCOL areas and I am finding reports of people living in these areas for approximately $1500 US a month.  I don't think these estimates consider Health Care, and knowing that my wife and I are not the most frugal and will want to travel around Europe each year I am using $4,000 per month or $50k as an annual expense number.  If I'm correct, this number should be multiplied by 25 to arrive at $1.2 million.  Additionally, I was thinking I would add $300k to purchase an apartment.  So the grand total I'm seeing is $1.5 million. 
Also, for a place like portugal, if $1500 is a comfortable living, $2500-3000/month will provide an insanely abundant lifestyle, all in with healthcare.

Seconding 2Birds. If you have only experienced healthcare in the US then you won't appreciate just how affordable it can be outside the US.

You can absolutely have (what I call) a very comfortable living on $1500/mo in Portugal, including healthcare. You might have different priorities for what you call comfortable but unless you want to fly back to the US for treatment, healthcare won't be a budget breaker.