Author Topic: 2022 FIRE cohort  (Read 51877 times)

Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #200 on: July 18, 2016, 06:50:02 PM »
In fact, I have pondered this.

I've started shifting towards my FIRE AA now in purchasing habits.  Prevents having to make costly changes later on.  When looking at which allocations to choose, I had to remember that high growth is not the only thing I'm looking for.  In drawdown, assets stability is just as important.  This is particularly true in the early years since sequence of return is a far higher risk to an early retiree than less than average growth.  A consistent real return of 2 percent makes the 4% rule last more than 40 years, but with volatility even 7-8 percent real returns can fail in under 30 (or make one ridiculously wealthy).  Since I have zero interest in being ridiculously wealthy at 85, I'd rather opt for less volatility through non correlating assets and cope with lower returns.

Playing with Fire UK

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #201 on: July 19, 2016, 12:25:54 AM »
I plan to my existing cash in high interest (4-6%) savings accounts as a buffer for the first few years if the markets are down, and when 2022 approaches I might chicken out and keep more of the final year's savings in cash instead of investments. If I can get through 2 years of poor returns early on while taking advantage of the extra time to reduce costs rather than spend on holidays I'll consider it a pass.

At the moment, I'm happy to accept the higher volatility that means I'm more likely to be able to pull the plug sooner (also, my spreadsheets are still forecasting a FIRE date after 2022, so I want to take more risk). This also increases the risk that I'll need to work longer or need to do some paid work after 2022, but I'm okay with this idea now.

BlueHouse

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #202 on: July 19, 2016, 04:47:43 AM »
OMG!  I never thought about my housekeeper that way.  But, yeah, I'd work another year to keep her.  Maybe even two...
Yup, me too. A few more months slogging it to the office in order to get a full day of freedom, rest and relaxation every week btwn now and then.  I need that day or I'd burn out.
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Mrs. Healthywealth

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #203 on: July 20, 2016, 02:31:55 PM »
Common advice for soon to be retirees is to increase bond exposure......however sustaining a longer than normal retirement requires higher stock exposure in order to maximize returns. Right now bond yields are low, so I wouldn't over emphasize them. Still to your IPS, if you don't have an IPS write one up.


Yup, that's my thoughts too. We have many years in retirement, and having too much of a bond exposure may impact its sustainability .  Whenever I play with these calculators https://portfoliocharts.com/calculators/ I think about how I can make changes to improve my SWR. The withdrawal rates calculator is very insightful. Can't make future predictions, but it's interesting to see how adding in certain assets impact the SafeWR and SustainableWR.  It will be interesting to see what folks do as they get closer to their FIRE date. The only thing I would consider is becoming a tad more conservative like 80/20 or 70/30 stocks/bonds

Wrote up an IPS about a month ago, since it was just written it's still in "tweak me" mode. The contemplation of adding REITs has been happening in my head for over a year.

« Last Edit: July 21, 2016, 01:46:54 PM by Mrs. Healthywealth »

faramund

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #204 on: July 20, 2016, 10:13:07 PM »
Common advice for soon to be retirees is to increase bond exposure......however sustaining a longer than normal retirement requires higher stock exposure in order to maximize returns. Right now bond yields are low, so I wouldn't over emphasize them. Still to your IPS, if you don't have an IPS write one up.

Yup, that's my thoughts too. We have many years in retirement, and having too much of a bond exposure may impact its sustainability .  Whenever I play with these calculators https://portfoliocharts.com/calculators/ I think about how I can make changes to improve my SWR. The withdrawal rates calculator is very insightful. Can't make future predictions, but it's interesting to see how adding in certain assets impact the SafeWR and SustainableWR.  It will be interesting to see what folks do as they get closer to their FIRE date. The only thing I would consider is becoming a tad more conservative like 80/20 or 70/30 stocks/bonds

Wrote up an IPS about a month ago, since it was just written it's still in "tweak me" mode. The contemplation of adding REITs has been happening in my head for over a year.
Well, in Australia, its easy to get a 4-5% dividend off shares - so I'm 100% shares, 5 years out from retirement, and I have to desire to change this EVER. Even during the 2008 crash, dividends only fell by about 20%, and had pretty much recovered 2-3 years later.

On 5 years - if you noticed, I've done some spreadsheet tweaking and am now planning on retiring in 2021 - but I still see whenever anyone's posted to this thread.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2016, 02:00:53 AM by faramund »

FI@2022Jem

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #205 on: July 21, 2016, 12:34:20 AM »
Commenting to join the cohort!
We have a few rentals and are projecting they should cover about 60-70% of our basic expenses and are saving in the market to make up the difference.  Right now we have about 9x expenses saved.  Goal is bare bones FI in summer of 2022 then transitioning to very reduced part time work while the kid is still in school.  I found MMM and have been hanging around the forum off and on for over 4 years now (wow!)- my husband is frugal but not a convert.

londonbanker

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #206 on: September 22, 2016, 02:45:10 PM »
It's been nearly 3months since the last post... How's everybody doing on their 2022 FIRE journey?

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #207 on: September 22, 2016, 02:51:34 PM »


Just checking in with my classmates.

May was an incredible leap forward in terms of progress to FI.

As of today I have 12X barebones living expenses and 8X current expenses saved.

Feeling better and better about FIRE in 2022 :)

How about everyone else? Markets are really close to all time highs and have recovered from the 15% drop we had last fall/this winter.

It's been nearly 3months since the last post... How's everybody doing on their 2022 FIRE journey?

Woah it has been that long!

SInce my last post I am up to 14X barebones and 9.25X current expenses saved up.

Between strong market returns and decent commission things have been moving in the right direction. I can't believe I will be FI in just under 68 months!
« Last Edit: September 22, 2016, 02:53:09 PM by 2Birds1Stone »
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couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #208 on: September 22, 2016, 10:00:33 PM »
Plugging along....nose to the grindstone - except when the travel bug flies by to distract me! (I blame travel miles 101 and their travel hacking deals). We are on track although college costs are still my big question mark.
Why the hell are we going shopping? Buy sh*t, return other sh*t, go through sh*t and donate sh*t. Complain about having too much sh*t. Repeat. (Bracken Joy 2/17)




faramund

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #209 on: September 22, 2016, 10:08:23 PM »
Well my spreadsheet tweaks that moved me up to 2021 still hold. But my work has just removed what I now realise is the one aspect that I really wasn't happy with (it was basically a management-y thing, and I now realise that I over worry about how other people are going). So now, I'm coming close to thinking I like (maybe really like) my job - so I'm now toying with staying on a bit longer, and do the SWAMI thing instead. And of course, be in a position to pull the plug if and when I decide/need to.

Axecleaver

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #210 on: September 23, 2016, 07:19:11 AM »
Had some potentially bad news for the business last week. Still working on plans to turn it around. This work was a stretch for me, high margin, and somewhat speculative. It had helped accelerate my timeline to June, 2020. If it goes away, then I'm back to 2022, which is fine.

At the end of July, I was at 490k liquid. About 30% to goal of $1.5m, 80k/year at 5% SWR. Bought a house this year, which took about 60k down/closing and 20k in renovations. Saved about 50k. Next year and beyond, I'm targeting 150k a year in savings.

Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #211 on: September 23, 2016, 10:30:52 AM »
Still on pace for FIRE 2022, although I continue to lean more towards cutting back to part time about halfway through, 2019ish.  I've actually created a written plan/investment policy statement for each scenario.  Honestly, personal burnout factor will probably be the number one determinant of which way I go.  At the moment, I'm actually enjoying work much more.  Which is a good thing... I think.

rachael talcott

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #212 on: October 25, 2016, 03:58:09 PM »
It's been nearly 3months since the last post... How's everybody doing on their 2022 FIRE journey?

I moved to the 2017 cohort.  So happy!

couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #213 on: October 25, 2016, 04:38:50 PM »
Still tracking where I want to be. DD has gotten straight A's again so this is a fee solid years of them....if that keeps up through high school maybe I will be FIRE without working through 2022 and can FIRE 4/2/22 with a maxed out 401(k) and vesting in ER match for the year. Doesn't that date have a nice ring to it as well? It wouldn't be a truly early FIRE, as I would be 51 on that date, but I will take it!
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homestead neohio

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #214 on: October 26, 2016, 07:02:15 AM »
I moved to the 2017 cohort.  So happy!

Details, please!

I am considering some adjustments to my plan due to getting hit by a layoff.  I will be employed through 2017 and get severance/retention in 2018, provided I stick it out.  I can max fund 401k, HSA, and tIRAs for both 2017 and 2018, just won't get an employer match for 401k in 2018.  I've been busy crunching numbers and running scenarios to see if I can FIRE 4 years early.  I'll be well short of my FIRE target (just 72% of my target), I'm looking to see if we can do a "bare bones FI".  We are planning to pilot it for 2017 (while employed) and see if it feels like freedom or deprivation.  Also considering a career change to a job where I make enough to cover expenses and just let the stache grow until it hits the target, then FIRE, though this takes until 2025.  Choosing another cube job to keep stashing cash does not look that attractive right now, but I could do that after a year or two break if I'm frustrated by the pace of progress.  Too many variables.

So, we're going to shoot for 2018, but could end up at 2025.  We'll probably know more 1/2 way through 2017.

rachael talcott

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #215 on: November 01, 2016, 12:24:24 PM »
I moved to the 2017 cohort.  So happy!

Details, please!

I am considering some adjustments to my plan due to getting hit by a layoff.  I will be employed through 2017 and get severance/retention in 2018, provided I stick it out.  I can max fund 401k, HSA, and tIRAs for both 2017 and 2018, just won't get an employer match for 401k in 2018.  I've been busy crunching numbers and running scenarios to see if I can FIRE 4 years early.  I'll be well short of my FIRE target (just 72% of my target), I'm looking to see if we can do a "bare bones FI".  We are planning to pilot it for 2017 (while employed) and see if it feels like freedom or deprivation.  Also considering a career change to a job where I make enough to cover expenses and just let the stache grow until it hits the target, then FIRE, though this takes until 2025.  Choosing another cube job to keep stashing cash does not look that attractive right now, but I could do that after a year or two break if I'm frustrated by the pace of progress.  Too many variables.

So, we're going to shoot for 2018, but could end up at 2025.  We'll probably know more 1/2 way through 2017.

I'm not being laid off, but my job is driving me crazy.  Like you, I am not all the way to my original target, and I'm hoping to build my 'stache after retirement.  My plan is based mostly on real estate investing.  I own four rentals in my town and the profit after long-term expenses is about $24K/yr.  That's not a lot, but I recently paid off my mortgage, and sold a property in another state, giving me a large cash cushion. My bare-bones expenses are about $12K/yr.  I'm going to use the cash to buy three more houses to fix up and rent.   I'm also thinking I'd like to start a small internet business.  The rentals tie me down to this town, and I want to move.  If I can build an online store, I can manage it from pretty much anywhere in the world, or I could just sell it and move on. 

It sounds like you need a break. 

snowball

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #216 on: November 01, 2016, 09:17:51 PM »
I miiiiight be able to move to this cohort from the 2024 one, if the job I interviewed for this morning comes through.  It would be a significant bump in compensation, woohoo.  And as far as I can tell, a better fit than my current job in terms of the kinds of work I like.

I feel like I didn't do that well in the interview, but I always second-guess myself about that, and I tend to have a reasonably good interview/offer ratio nonetheless, so...maybe?  I didn't completely bomb it anyway, I don't think.  (Of course, I've sat on the other side of the interviewing table and watched other people blow up their chances with a single sentence and no self-awareness whatsoever, so I take my own opinion with a small grain of salt, heh.)

I will just be lurking over here in a cloud of uncertainty for a while...shouldn't be more than a couple of weeks of not knowing, since they seem firm about their preferred start date, so at least there is that.  Not a fan of waiting, though!

(I know, standard good advice is to not obsess over it, and instead get back up on the horse and apply to other jobs while you're waiting...and I will if something pops up, but the kind of job I'm looking for is very niche, and there aren't that many openings.  Fortunately not that many qualified candidates either, so that cuts both ways.  Maybe the candidate pool for this one was limited enough to make up for any minor deficiencies/babbly bits in my interview.  And make up for the fact that this org is in the field of - let's call it plaid teapot design - while I have only ever worked on designing solid-tone and curlicued teapots.  IMO plaid teapots are not that different, but not every teapot designer would agree, and what do I know, I've never done them.)

I have a secret fondness for 2/2/22 as a FIRE date, but who knows if that will be possible for me. At least one person should pick it though.  It deserves love!

RWD

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #217 on: November 02, 2016, 07:40:23 AM »
I have a secret fondness for 2/2/22 as a FIRE date, but who knows if that will be possible for me. At least one person should pick it though.  It deserves love!

You wouldn't be the only person trying to line up the twos:

I like 2/22/22 - that will be my target date, unless there is some bonus or match patch pending. Less than 6 years to go!
Like another poster earlier in the thread, I liked the look of 2/22/22, and I needed a goal, so that's my date!

sisto

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #218 on: November 02, 2016, 01:36:48 PM »
I miiiiight be able to move to this cohort from the 2024 one, if the job I interviewed for this morning comes through.  It would be a significant bump in compensation, woohoo.  And as far as I can tell, a better fit than my current job in terms of the kinds of work I like.

I feel like I didn't do that well in the interview, but I always second-guess myself about that, and I tend to have a reasonably good interview/offer ratio nonetheless, so...maybe?  I didn't completely bomb it anyway, I don't think.  (Of course, I've sat on the other side of the interviewing table and watched other people blow up their chances with a single sentence and no self-awareness whatsoever, so I take my own opinion with a small grain of salt, heh.)

I will just be lurking over here in a cloud of uncertainty for a while...shouldn't be more than a couple of weeks of not knowing, since they seem firm about their preferred start date, so at least there is that.  Not a fan of waiting, though!

(I know, standard good advice is to not obsess over it, and instead get back up on the horse and apply to other jobs while you're waiting...and I will if something pops up, but the kind of job I'm looking for is very niche, and there aren't that many openings.  Fortunately not that many qualified candidates either, so that cuts both ways.  Maybe the candidate pool for this one was limited enough to make up for any minor deficiencies/babbly bits in my interview.  And make up for the fact that this org is in the field of - let's call it plaid teapot design - while I have only ever worked on designing solid-tone and curlicued teapots.  IMO plaid teapots are not that different, but not every teapot designer would agree, and what do I know, I've never done them.)

I have a secret fondness for 2/2/22 as a FIRE date, but who knows if that will be possible for me. At least one person should pick it though.  It deserves love!

Wishing you luck on the job!
Jack of all trades, master of none

snowball

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #219 on: November 02, 2016, 08:40:03 PM »
I have a secret fondness for 2/2/22 as a FIRE date, but who knows if that will be possible for me. At least one person should pick it though.  It deserves love!

You wouldn't be the only person trying to line up the twos:

I like 2/22/22 - that will be my target date, unless there is some bonus or match patch pending. Less than 6 years to go!
Like another poster earlier in the thread, I liked the look of 2/22/22, and I needed a goal, so that's my date!

Hah, I should have read the whole thread, not just the last page! Silly. I blame job-uncertainty-distraction.  :)

Wishing you luck on the job!

Thanks!  They initially said they wouldn't decide until next week if they wanted my references, but instead they asked for them today, so that is a good sign!

couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #220 on: November 11, 2016, 09:39:09 AM »
I have a fondness for 4/4/22....My ER match vests on 4/1/22, and you get a free floating holiday on 4/1/22 to use in the next year.

My busy season starts in April, and I wouldn't want to miss the easy hours over the Winter or the chance to hide all the income in a 401(k) for the year.  I'd like Monday 4/4/22 to be the day I announce FIRE, after taking 4/1/22 off as a floating holiday. 

Even if they say I can leave that day, I'll still have vested in my ER match, maxed out my 401(k) for the year, and receive an extra holiday. Not that I'm a planner or anything! :-)

I will be 51. DH will be 49, but isn't on board with the whole FIRE movement either. 
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waltworks

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #221 on: November 11, 2016, 06:29:43 PM »
I'm going to go ahead and officially withdraw... indefinitely. 2022 might happen, or it might not. Really depends on how badly the healthcare system blows up after the ACA repeal, I think. If health insurance in the individual market ends up at $50k/year, well, my family is just not going to be able to do that without saving up a LOT more money - or someone having a job with benefits. No more FIRE for... anyone? It will be interesting to see what transpires.

-W

rob in cal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #222 on: November 12, 2016, 11:05:33 AM »
    Thought it was time to join a cohort, and 2022 seems a good target.  I've been posting my asset accumulation journal for a couple of years now, and another five years or so might very well put give us enough of a cushion to either quit work or work much less.  By 2022 both kids should be done with school or almost done. Right now we have retirement accounts of about 80k, my wife has a tiny vested pension with the Cal State teacher retirement system, a paid off house worth about 380k, and another 385k which consists of  ownership equity at the restaurant we work at, stocks, a REIT, and some personal loans outstanding.
    So, assuming historic rate of return with my stocks, REIT and ownership income (I've had shares since 2010 so there is somewhat of a history by now) plus the interest on the loans my 385k in non-retirement accounts is netting on average somewhere in the low 3,000's per month, which is actually pretty close to our monthly expenses, if not a little more.  But I wouldn't be comfortable retiring now, that cushion of extra earnings over the next few years will hopefully stretch out our passive earning potential substantially.
   My wife is sort of on board.  She's into savings for sure, but not fully convinced of the realisticness of the overall FIRE idea. I've gradually been educating her to the exciting realities. One question that is still outstanding is the status of my restaurant ownership shares if I wanted to quit, or close to it anyway, working.  I don't think the majority owner would be too concerned.  One idea might be that I could always help fill in for him when he wanted to go on vacation, or that I could continue to have a role in training new delivery drivers as I've been the main driver at the restaurant for 18 years now.  Even if we moved away to somewhere cheaper, I could sporadically come back to town and help out every so often.  The restaurant ownership income isn't huge but its the cornerstone of the passive income side of my income, and I'd like to keep it without too much friction.  Its kind of like the best rental house a landlord has, steady rent, good tenants, nice property etc.
   I hate to set an exact financial target for FIRE, or the date to hit it, but 2022 just feels right, in terms of our lives, our current investment trajectory etc.  Right now our investment capital has been growing about 4 k a month, including new savings that we put into it and the growth of the investments on its own (with some obvious big monthly swings), and I'd like to think that my investment accumulation is in the top one percent of any currently working pizza/pasta delivery driver in the USA.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #223 on: November 12, 2016, 11:17:18 AM »
I'm going to go ahead and officially withdraw... indefinitely. 2022 might happen, or it might not. Really depends on how badly the healthcare system blows up after the ACA repeal, I think. If health insurance in the individual market ends up at $50k/year, well, my family is just not going to be able to do that without saving up a LOT more money - or someone having a job with benefits. No more FIRE for... anyone? It will be interesting to see what transpires.

-W

Who knows, TrumpCare might be better than ObamaCare.

Regardless, 6 years is still a long time to go, and a LOT can change.
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waltworks

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #224 on: November 12, 2016, 11:44:14 AM »
Yes, but the world just got a lot less predictable, so I'm no longer comfortable making any specific predictions.

-W

Playing with Fire UK

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #225 on: November 12, 2016, 12:00:25 PM »
Welcome on board Rob in Cal!

For people concerned about how realistic the target dates are, we don't need to be certain of our FIRE dates to join in. I'm almost certainly going to have a working spouse in 2022 (don't tell the internet retirement police) and will only hit 2022 if I get some new ideas or pay rises. Still, this is my target and I'm sticking to it.

Waltworks, sorry to see you go, I hope that you will find a way to make health insurance work. Maybe a Mustachian healthcare collective?

Unique User

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #226 on: December 01, 2016, 02:35:59 PM »
I'm still on track, we just went over the seven figure mark this year!  We moved spouse's retirement date up to 2020, I'm still planning on sticking around until 2021 or 2022, I think.  Depending on how college plays out and the whole health insurance possible disaster or not, finishing in 2020 also and working part time contracts could be in my future instead.  Right now, it's heads down, yay that neither of us got laid off this year and keep on socking it away. 
« Last Edit: December 01, 2016, 02:38:57 PM by Unique User »

Playing with Fire UK

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #227 on: December 01, 2016, 03:28:11 PM »
I'm still on track, we just went over the seven figure mark this year! 

Congrats!

dougules

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #228 on: December 02, 2016, 09:43:21 AM »
I'm still on track, we just went over the seven figure mark this year!  We moved spouse's retirement date up to 2020, I'm still planning on sticking around until 2021 or 2022, I think.  Depending on how college plays out and the whole health insurance possible disaster or not, finishing in 2020 also and working part time contracts could be in my future instead.  Right now, it's heads down, yay that neither of us got laid off this year and keep on socking it away.

Nice.  We're only a couple of years behind you, but I think we'll still make 2022.  Maybe earlier if the market cooperates and our spending stays on its gradual decline.   

rob in cal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #229 on: December 30, 2016, 03:38:40 PM »
   I've mentioned my new 2022 FIRE target to a few people and they've been supportive.  I think my wife mostly views it similar to how a parent might respond to a child who says he's going to play major league baseball when he grows up.  The European travel group that I attend have some pretty frugal people in it (that's how they can afford to travel to Europe), and they seem to take my idea seriously.  Over the next few months I do want to keep educating my wife on why I won't need to work, nor her, by the time our new Senator Kamela Harris seeks reelection.
     She didn't want to mention our FIRE date in our Christmas letter, go figure, which shows a lack of respect and recognition of the whole 2022 thing on her part, but as the education process continues hopefully she'll come on board.

RWD

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #230 on: December 30, 2016, 05:39:22 PM »
She didn't want to mention our FIRE date in our Christmas letter, go figure, which shows a lack of respect and recognition of the whole 2022 thing on her part, but as the education process continues hopefully she'll come on board.

Even if she was on board mentioning it in your Christmas letter seems a little too much... I personally would want to wait until the date was much closer.

Playing with Fire UK

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #231 on: December 31, 2016, 03:23:20 AM »
She didn't want to mention our FIRE date in our Christmas letter, go figure, which shows a lack of respect and recognition of the whole 2022 thing on her part, but as the education process continues hopefully she'll come on board.
Even if she was on board mentioning it in your Christmas letter seems a little too much... I personally would want to wait until the date was much closer.

I agree with RWD. I'm super committed to FIRE, but my personality just isn't a sharing type. My community also isn't one where this kind of news would be well regarded. I think you may be reading her behaviour as a lack of respect and recognition when it is something else.

couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #232 on: December 31, 2016, 07:21:36 AM »
Rob in Cal - I wish you were on our Christmas card list. :-) We get the majority from CA and you'd never hear about retirement, it would be kind of cool to hear another person planning for the future...."Hey people-we're going to be pretty frugal and minimalist for the next 5 years....we've got earlier retirement plans-2022 is our goal. Wishing you peace and joy and good market returns in the new year."
Why the hell are we going shopping? Buy sh*t, return other sh*t, go through sh*t and donate sh*t. Complain about having too much sh*t. Repeat. (Bracken Joy 2/17)




Chuck

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #233 on: January 27, 2017, 02:29:22 PM »
How is everyone else doing on meeting this goal? So far I think I'm doing well enough:

160k under investment
15k cash
With equity a total net worth of ~240k

VA Disability Comp at 920/mo.

I think at my current savings rate I'm in the money to meet my goal of 600k+ cash and investments by 2022.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #234 on: January 27, 2017, 02:46:19 PM »
About to hit 11X current annual expenses with Tuesday's paycheck.

Still tracking well for 2022 despite some hiccups with employment.



"A small house can hold as much happiness as a big one." - Fortune Cookie

33 Months till FIRE - Stop by, or stay a while.....
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/fire-by-thirty-five-chronicles-36-months-till-sabbatical!/

Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #235 on: January 27, 2017, 03:22:58 PM »
My 2016 spending totals gave me a bit of a surprise, year over year it dropped by more than 20 percent.  I've been spending much more time over on the ERE forum, maybe it rubbed off, other than that I'm not really sure how it happened. If this spending level repeats in 2017 it's likely I'll bump up to an earlier year. 

OTOH, I have become much more serious about Semi ER, as I just don't see myself not working for the rest of my life. I ran some Cfiresim & Portfolio Chart simulations on that option in the last few weeks, again pleasantly surprised.  It's amazing what the anticipation of a small and scalable income stream does to long term projections.  In any event, in addition to slogging along in 2017 I plan to take a month off in May to see where my mind & body go with an extended break and no specific plans.  I'd like to do more than that, but it's not realistic with my current job.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 09:07:42 PM by Classical_Liberal »

RWD

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #236 on: January 27, 2017, 05:05:55 PM »
We should still be relatively on track. A lot will still depend on the market, of course.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #237 on: January 27, 2017, 05:07:40 PM »
My 2016 spending totals gave me a bit of a surprise, year over year it dropped by more than 20 percent.  I've been spending much more time over on the ERE forum, maybe it rubbed off, other than than I'm not really sure how it happened. If this spending level repeats in 2017 it's likely I may bump up to an earlier year. 

OTOH, I have become much more serious about Semi ER, as I just don't see myself not working for the rest of my life. I ran some Cfiresim & Portfolio Chart simulations on that option in the last few weeks, again pleasantly surprised.  It's amazing what the anticipation of a small and scalable income stream does to long term projections.  In any event, in addition to slogging along in 2017 I plan to take a month off in May to see where my mind & body go with an extended break and no specific plans.  I'd like to do more than that, but it's not realistic with my current job.

That's awesome. I love the ERE website. I feel like I can learn a lot from the folks over there. Have you seen Halfmoon's journal? Serious inspiration to live off the land.

"A small house can hold as much happiness as a big one." - Fortune Cookie

33 Months till FIRE - Stop by, or stay a while.....
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/fire-by-thirty-five-chronicles-36-months-till-sabbatical!/

rob in cal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #238 on: January 27, 2017, 06:13:17 PM »
   Still on track for now, with a 2022 goal of somewhere around 700k or thereabouts in total investments plus paid off house. I do find myself wondering about stocks and what the net return on them will be over the next several years. Its been a great run since 2009 and I just can't help but wonder if that's going to keep up.

Classical_Liberal

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #239 on: January 27, 2017, 09:06:10 PM »
My 2016 spending totals gave me a bit of a surprise, year over year it dropped by more than 20 percent.  I've been spending much more time over on the ERE forum, maybe it rubbed off, other than than I'm not really sure how it happened. If this spending level repeats in 2017 it's likely I may bump up to an earlier year. 

OTOH, I have become much more serious about Semi ER, as I just don't see myself not working for the rest of my life. I ran some Cfiresim & Portfolio Chart simulations on that option in the last few weeks, again pleasantly surprised.  It's amazing what the anticipation of a small and scalable income stream does to long term projections.  In any event, in addition to slogging along in 2017 I plan to take a month off in May to see where my mind & body go with an extended break and no specific plans.  I'd like to do more than that, but it's not realistic with my current job.

That's awesome. I love the ERE website. I feel like I can learn a lot from the folks over there. Have you seen Halfmoon's journal? Serious inspiration to live off the land.

Yes! That woman has a flare for storytelling! 


homestead neohio

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #240 on: January 30, 2017, 08:15:02 AM »
Still on track for now.  Planning for dramatically lower expenses and income over the next few years and hope to still hit full FIRE by 2022.  Semi-FIRE may be as soon as 2018, TBD.

That's awesome. I love the ERE website. I feel like I can learn a lot from the folks over there. Have you seen Halfmoon's journal? Serious inspiration to live off the land.

Thanks for this recommendation.  I read the ERE book and have been looking to get started on the forums over there, but no idea where to start.  Seems like much lower readership and more infrequent/dated posts, but I know there must be some great stories in there.  Let me know if you have other suggestions.

couponvan

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #241 on: January 30, 2017, 10:40:42 AM »
On track for now! However I have the travel bug bad....may need OMY to cover travel lifestyle inflation....
Why the hell are we going shopping? Buy sh*t, return other sh*t, go through sh*t and donate sh*t. Complain about having too much sh*t. Repeat. (Bracken Joy 2/17)




Skyward

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #242 on: February 05, 2017, 09:22:52 PM »
Shooting for 2022. I lowered my 401k contribution the first of the year from the max to 6% just to get the company match in order to cover 55-59.5 years old with after tax. Kind of bummed about it but I have to get out of this soul-sucking job asap. Hopefully, I can make it another 5.5 years.

marty998

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #243 on: February 06, 2017, 12:22:55 AM »
I'm going to go ahead and officially withdraw... indefinitely. 2022 might happen, or it might not. Really depends on how badly the healthcare system blows up after the ACA repeal, I think. If health insurance in the individual market ends up at $50k/year, well, my family is just not going to be able to do that without saving up a LOT more money - or someone having a job with benefits. No more FIRE for... anyone? It will be interesting to see what transpires.

-W

Aww Walt, come on now. You could always move to Australia. I know how much you love our realestate market :D

marty998

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #244 on: February 06, 2017, 12:36:09 AM »
I think I posted earlier in this thread. Anyway. I've been slack in posting meaningful updates on my progress generally, mostly because I get drawn into all those abyssal off topic political threads.

Right, here we are as of 6 Feb:

Home value:                     $570k
Investment properties:      $890k
Mortgages:                      ($1,048k)
Cash offsetting loans:        $310k (offset accounts - can pull cash out at any time, interest calculated on net loans of $738k)

Shares net of margin loan: $86k (mostly VAS, gross value $104k, loan 18k)

Superannuation:                $119k (Can't touch till age 60)

I think this adds to $927k. Interest rates on the loans average out to ~4.56% not in any hurry to pay them off, as the loans are interest only till 2019, then I'll have a problem.

Have started throwing windfalls at the offset accounts again (tax refunds, bonuses etc). Mostly just throwing $10k a quarter at VAS (Vanguard ASX 300 ETF).

The investment properties don't generate any net income after expenses. It's all coming from capital growth.

I need a proper plan (been saying this for a few years now). Right now I have about $56,000 free cash a year to do things with and splitting it between shares and loan offset accounts seems to be just the thing to do when you don't know what to do.

« Last Edit: February 06, 2017, 02:32:34 AM by marty998 »

Axecleaver

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #245 on: February 06, 2017, 06:28:31 AM »
2016 was a rollercoaster for me. I had built up my company's revenues to 980k for the year, with a 540k net margin. Best year of my professional career. Had hoped to ride this into retirement, but this wasn't to be. Client leadership change happened in August and I lost my contract along with some other folks on Jan 4. Still working on my next project, which could be better or worse.

We also made a lot of progress on our expenses, which helped accelerate things by bringing down the stash goal. Roughly half way to the goal, and even if my rates go down, I'll be able to make 2022.

2016
Net worth $810,867 (+380,064)
Cash and investments $715,507 (+$309,103)
Goal $1.5m (-$375,000)

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #246 on: February 17, 2017, 03:07:44 PM »

We also made a lot of progress on our expenses, which helped accelerate things by bringing down the stash goal. Roughly half way to the goal, and even if my rates go down, I'll be able to make 2022.

2016
Net worth $810,867 (+380,064)
Cash and investments $715,507 (+$309,103)
Goal $1.5m (-$375,000)

Welcome to the class of 2022, knowing you.....I think you will be out before then =)

How is everyone else going now that we are well into 2017?

It's had to believe that, give or take a few months/years....most of us will be FI(RE)'d in 5 years!

This latest runup in stocks has me sitting at 11.5X current spending and 17X barebone FI spending....I have a feeling this year will be a slow progress year for me, income is down and markets can't keep this trajectory forever.
"A small house can hold as much happiness as a big one." - Fortune Cookie

33 Months till FIRE - Stop by, or stay a while.....
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/fire-by-thirty-five-chronicles-36-months-till-sabbatical!/

FrozenBits

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #247 on: February 17, 2017, 04:38:48 PM »
Wow, I haven't posted an update to this thread in almost 2 years!  We have been going along nicely but things may be changing in the next couple years.  We are looking at moving which would most likely mean new jobs (there is a chance I could work remotely).  We are also looking at higher COL areas.  There is a chance we could significantly increase our salaries but that would come with increased living expenses too, mostly housing.  Who knows what's going to happen, I guess only time will tell.



Date           Total Estimated  NW           Total Actual NW
Year End
             
2014                 $106,700                         $106,700
2015                 $177,869                         $203,468
2016                 $259,141                         $276,375
2017                 $345,859
2018                 $443,721
2019                 $548,140
2020                 $670,226
2021                 $800,491
2022                 $950,154 (bare bones FI)



Current NW = $297,198


If the stock market holds up we should be able to break 350k total NW by the end of 2017 pretty easily. 

Well Respected Man

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #248 on: February 17, 2017, 07:18:21 PM »
5 years and 5 days to go. Or 1123 work days. Kid 1 chose a state school, and Kid 2 is a junior in high school, so starting the college process. I offered them the difference between $160,000 and their undergraduate expenses, so they have an incentive to choose a state school or a school where they get merit aid. Got a piddly raise this year, but DW got a decent one, because of studying for and passing an exam. We should be able to sock away close to $100k this year, including mortgage principal.

If I had my way, we'd be downsized and I would be RE already, but I am not a dictator. I'm continuing to pound away on tracking and reducing expenses. I'm going to plug our numbers into one of the spreadsheets this year to come up with a realistic number for post-RE expenses. I have a feeling that buying a smaller, less expensive house in cash, possibly with a tenant in one unit, will make a huge difference. If I can get us to that point before 2022, I may graduate early.

One huge variable is health care. We have a lot of drug expenses that are full price with my high-deductible plan. We'll be looking into DW's plan when open enrollment comes up in May. She plans to work longer, so that is a potential partial bridge to Medicare if Obamacare is repealed/reduced.

Accidental Miser

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Re: 2022 FIRE cohort
« Reply #249 on: February 19, 2017, 03:13:15 PM »
Hi there "classmates"!

It's been a while since I've done any meaningful posting.  New grandchildren, new MBA, work and home projects; you know how it is.

Anyway, 11/16/22 is the day I turn 55.  Waiting until actual age 55 bumps my pension a little, so I'll stick it out until then.  Otherwise, I'll throw in the towel on 1/2/22 if the urge takes me.

In 2009 we were flat broke.  Since finding MMM in 2012, we've increased our net worth from 100k to 700+k.  We've always been frugal, DW worked for a couple of years, I've gotten a couple of great raises, the market has been kind and we're really healthy.  We are incredibly well blessed.

We'll be FI before we RE.  In fact, we could probably call it quits now but it's too much risk and I've no compelling reason to quit working.  If we hit 1M in our investment accounts before 2022, then I'll probably tap out early but that's pretty unlikely.

Cheers!