Author Topic: 2021 FIRE Cohort  (Read 134350 times)

ScreamingHeadGuy

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #400 on: February 28, 2020, 06:59:48 PM »
Finances:
December 2018 - 79.7%
January 2019 - 85.9%
February 2019 - 90.6%
March 2019 - 92.1%
April 2019 - 95.2%
May 2019 - 91.6%
June 2019 - 97.7%
July 2019 - 99.6%
August 2019 - 99.0%
September 2019 - 100.5% (28.1 x expenses)
October 2019 - 102.4% (28.7 x expenses)
November 2019 - 105.0% (29.4 x expenses)
December 2019 - 107.3% (30.0 x expenses)
January 2020 - 109.3% (30.6 x expenses)
February 2020 - 103.7% (29.0 x expenses)

Well, blood-in-the-street ahoy!  This month's market performance was amazing; halfway through the month I was around 113% but a mere two weeks later I've lost 4 months' worth of returns.  I'll just re-balance my accounts and be on my way.  (I will admit - it's a bit of an emotional let-down.)  All that said I acknowledge I am still very blessed to be in this position. 

I filed my tax returns last weekend and will be getting a return on principle for my no-interest-loans to the Federal and State governments.  My federal income tax rate is 0.8% and my state is 2.5% - I don't think I should ever be justified in saying I pay too much income tax if these rates continue.

Life:
After a month of work-from-home I can say it's a good way to work (if you have to work, that is).  With my wife's part-time job I now do school pick-up on Thursdays and Fridays (we still split drop-off in the mornings because the high-schooler goes an hour earlier than the kindergartner). 

Work itself has been a hectic, stressful bunch of busy these past three weeks.  I feel like just throwing up my hands and shouting "Fuck it!"; but I don't - because I have a planned schedule and I can stick to it.  I have been trying to take a sick day just because I have 13 stockpiled and can't get payout for it when I retire, but I'm just so darned busy that I always find a reason to justify not taking a fricking day off - this is surely a sign of some kind of moral failing, I'm sure (/sarcasm). 

In the past two weeks I've been getting horrible sleep (waking up between 1:30 and 3:30 and not falling asleep again).  Is that somehow connected to the work stress?  It's sure not due to weather, diet, or exercise.  The wife says I'm not snoring anymore - could that be a cause?

I've been reading more this past month, and spending less time on the computer in the evening.  Maybe working-from-home in the same room as my (personal) PC somehow, sub-consciously, makes me avoid it? 

My health insurance is paying for me to be in an online weight-loss class.  Honestly I just signed up because I want to make my health insurance company actually do something for me rather than just take my money.  However I'll admit I've actually lost 5 pounds (my focus now is on eating non-calorie-dense foods, increasing fiber intake, and tracking what I eat).  I'll see how I feel when this program is over (right about the time spring starts for real). 


eazyebeneezer

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #401 on: March 01, 2020, 08:27:03 AM »
Hi 2021 crew!

My wife and I have been on the FIRE path since late 2017. I was in the 2022 cohort, as we would be comfortably FI by then. But now our plans are shifting, and it looks like we're going to take a two-year sabbatical/mini-retirement from summer 2021- summer 2023. We're going to live in a small city in France near my wife's family. We should be at Lean FI next summer, so this will give us a chance to do a "dry run" on early retirement, and see how we enjoy filling our time with projects, more family time, and basically doing whatever we want for two years, structured loosely around our daughter's school schedule. I am incredibly fortunate that I can take a two-year leave from my job. I made this decision for mental health reasons.

It will be interesting to experience living off our investments for a while. We may end up doing some remote work, but that will be 100% optional. We have the savings set aside for a full two years of expenses. I really need a break from work, so I absolutely can't wait for this opportunity.

If the Internet Retirement Police allow it, we'd like to join your class for the camaraderie, even though we aren't puling the official FI trigger.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #402 on: March 01, 2020, 08:38:06 AM »
Hi 2021 crew!

My wife and I have been on the FIRE path since late 2017. I was in the 2022 cohort, as we would be comfortably FI by then. But now our plans are shifting, and it looks like we're going to take a two-year sabbatical/mini-retirement from summer 2021- summer 2023. We're going to live in a small city in France near my wife's family. We should be at Lean FI next summer, so this will give us a chance to do a "dry run" on early retirement, and see how we enjoy filling our time with projects, more family time, and basically doing whatever we want for two years, structured loosely around our daughter's school schedule. I am incredibly fortunate that I can take a two-year leave from my job. I made this decision for mental health reasons.

It will be interesting to experience living off our investments for a while. We may end up doing some remote work, but that will be 100% optional. We have the savings set aside for a full two years of expenses. I really need a break from work, so I absolutely can't wait for this opportunity.

If the Internet Retirement Police allow it, we'd like to join your class for the camaraderie, even though we aren't puling the official FI trigger.

Welcome to the cohort! Youíll be pleased to know that in this cohort the Retirement Police are subject to scorn, ridicule, mockery, derision, wedgies, poetry, memes, and (Gasp!) plagues of cute shiba Inu puppies.

Weíre the best cohort but weíre also cruel. At least to the IRP. Welcome!

ScreamingHeadGuy

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #403 on: March 01, 2020, 07:14:53 PM »
New page - new posting of the roster.
The roster is updated for everybody through post #440

So far we have 42 folks here who will be FIRE in 2021 and 4 will OLY into 2020. 
Average age of 2021ers is 46.59 (at FIRE date).  2020 average age is 48.32 (so far).  2019 average age was 47.38.

NameAge (at FIRE)FIRE Date
AldiEarly 50s1/23/2020 OLY
CrazyIT563/13/2020 OLY
Mmm_Donuts3/20/2020 OLY
Marcher Lady494/14/2020 OLY
     
Matz_70501/1/2021
moneypitfeeder421/15/2021
123211/23/2021
ScreamingHeadGuy41February
Buffaloski Boris562/28/2021
dreams_and_discoveries39February
TheContinentalOP55 3/19/2021
Chaplin473/23/2021
Tipster350604/30/2021
icebox92364/30/2021
Peter Parker4/30/2021
zinnie38April
ItalianGirl 5/1/2021
WildJager35May
80Westy50May
FIREArtist476/1/2021
Sisto526/7/2021
YoungGranny316/30/2021
HumanAfterAll44June
easyebeneezer Summer
lightmyfireJune-Sept
Ladychips557/1/2021
Nazar7/1/2021
CarolinaGirl50July
Arbitrage438/1/2021
WadimanAugust
MichGenesis469/30/2021
frugalecon9/30/2021
GBRS36September
the_fixer4910/1/2021
damoOctober
Boyband37October
4tify54October
Money Badger5312/1/2021
Accountant0074812/23/2021
Bownyboy2912/25/2021
Ulysses Everett McGill5512/31/2021
dblaace60 12/31/2021
Money Tree 37 12/31/2021
Frizzywhiskers5012/31/2021
effigy9842December
SaddyG54TBD
monarda61TBD
American GenXTBD
LightTripper45TBD
« Last Edit: June 02, 2020, 06:21:57 AM by ScreamingHeadGuy »

zinnie

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #404 on: March 02, 2020, 12:29:51 PM »
Hi 2021 crew!

My wife and I have been on the FIRE path since late 2017. I was in the 2022 cohort, as we would be comfortably FI by then. But now our plans are shifting, and it looks like we're going to take a two-year sabbatical/mini-retirement from summer 2021- summer 2023. We're going to live in a small city in France near my wife's family. We should be at Lean FI next summer, so this will give us a chance to do a "dry run" on early retirement, and see how we enjoy filling our time with projects, more family time, and basically doing whatever we want for two years, structured loosely around our daughter's school schedule. I am incredibly fortunate that I can take a two-year leave from my job. I made this decision for mental health reasons.

It will be interesting to experience living off our investments for a while. We may end up doing some remote work, but that will be 100% optional. We have the savings set aside for a full two years of expenses. I really need a break from work, so I absolutely can't wait for this opportunity.

If the Internet Retirement Police allow it, we'd like to join your class for the camaraderie, even though we aren't puling the official FI trigger.

Wow! Sounds like a fun adventure and like it will be a good way to test the waters. I support this plan :)

Welcome!

moneypitfeeder

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #405 on: March 02, 2020, 05:13:44 PM »
Welcome @eazyebeneezer ! Hope the sabbatical goes well, and gives you a taste of FI, to fully pull the trigger. We are doing a five month "trial" where we will sock everything away that I make, and make sure that we are, indeed, comfortable living off SO's pension. I think it is nice to have a test-run before pulling the trigger!

moneypitfeeder

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #406 on: March 05, 2020, 05:53:23 PM »
 
Work itself has been a hectic, stressful bunch of busy these past three weeks.  I feel like just throwing up my hands and shouting "Fuck it!"; but I don't - because I have a planned schedule and I can stick to it.  I have been trying to take a sick day just because I have 13 stockpiled and can't get payout for it when I retire, but I'm just so darned busy that I always find a reason to justify not taking a fricking day off - this is surely a sign of some kind of moral failing, I'm sure (/sarcasm). 

In the past two weeks I've been getting horrible sleep (waking up between 1:30 and 3:30 and not falling asleep again).  Is that somehow connected to the work stress?  It's sure not due to weather, diet, or exercise.  The wife says I'm not snoring anymore - could that be a cause?
@ScreamingHeadGuy, I realize you have a plan but you really should be taking those sick days, especially if you can't cash them out when you fire! Someone on this site recently quoted a poem to me of indispensable man, it's something I have to constantly remind myself, I do a lot for my organization, but I do realize I'm fully replaceable. Sounds like you aren't sleeping well due to stress, not a good thing...We [on this cohort] only have a few more months to go, hang in there and take care of yourself!

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #407 on: March 05, 2020, 06:14:48 PM »
The Indispensable Man

by Saxon White Kessinger

Sometime when you're feeling important;
Sometime when your ego 's in bloom;
Sometime when you take it for granted,
You're the best qualified in the room:
Sometime when you feel that your going,
Would leave an unfillable hole,
Just follow these simple instructions,
And see how they humble your soul. 

Take a bucket and fill it with water,
Put your hand in it up to the wrist,
Pull it out and the hole that's remaining,
Is a measure of how much you'll be missed.
You can splash all you wish when you enter,
You may stir up the water galore,
But stop, and you'll find that in no time,
It looks quite the same as before. 

The moral of this quaint example,
Is to do just the best that you can,
Be proud of yourself but remember,
There's no indispensable man.

eazyebeneezer

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #408 on: March 07, 2020, 05:39:29 AM »


Wow! Sounds like a fun adventure and like it will be a good way to test the waters. I support this plan :)

Welcome!
[/quote]

Thanks @zinnie . I see you're in the Boston area. We are too. FIRE is possible even in HCOL areas! Have you found any local FIRE community? I went to one Choose FI meetup, but haven't found time to make another one yet. Didn't really make any lasting connections. I probably need to be more consistent, just have a very full life at the moment.

icebox92

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #409 on: March 11, 2020, 01:52:25 PM »
Anyone considering how the impact of this correction / bear will potentially alter your 2021 FIRE Plans?  Obviously no one knows what will happen, and I will continue investing as I have been, but I wonder if we are actually below our target number come 4/30/2021, if I would still walk away?  I would hate to miss out on the opportunity to continue to pump money into the market as it recovers, but at the same time we have built some safety measures in...  So maybe I'll stay committed to the date regardless of the numbers - within reason. 

Which then leads me to what is my "within reason" value?  Or should I stay in the game a little longer and pump up the safety measures / increase Fat Fire during the recovery.  What's everyones thoughts?  What are you thinking of potentially changing, if anything?  What's your "within reason" value / percentage if you have one?

tipster350

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #410 on: March 11, 2020, 03:38:44 PM »
I'm still planning on 2021, but I have as much information as the next person. If anything, this stock market drop underscores the need to have sufficient cushion built into the FIRE plan. You need to have the capacity to pull back on spending if need be and still stay within your target withdrawal rate (or some other form of flexibility in the plan).


nazar

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #411 on: March 11, 2020, 04:02:08 PM »
Taking a wait and see approach.  I'm glad this happened now instead of next year, when OMY is an option to avoid sequence of returns risk, if needed.   A good chance to add some bargains to the nest egg.

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the_fixer

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #412 on: March 11, 2020, 04:30:02 PM »
Also taking a wait and see approach. Depending on how things work out it might actually be a good thing that it happened now and so close to fire vs right after.




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moneypitfeeder

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #413 on: March 11, 2020, 05:14:33 PM »
So my boss just asked me the "where do you see yourself in 5 years" question...I answered truthfully, retired. They were willing to foot the bill for any training I might have needed in order to get there. I'm now looking at a pay increase and a new job position with supervisory status (with my current credentials, no training required), even with the knowledge that I will be leaving the org within a year. I had been holding back that information from my sup (my close co-workers knew) because if things should change I didn't want to shoot my job in the foot and since my goal is still 10+ months out, I thought it too soon. My sup was genuinely sad to hear the news, but seemed happy that I have plans to transfer my organizational knowledge to others (I do a lot that no one else knows I take care of or how to do it). I let them know that my plan isn't set in concrete, but is a pretty sure thing. We (in our office) are all moving out of a really toxic situation with a manager, so it had been really bad in our office (belittlement, screaming, micromanagement), but that manager has been removed. Everyone else quit or was reassigned, but since I was so close to fire, I was the only one that stuck it out. Now I (almost) feel bad, the ship is starting to right itself now, and yet, I still want to bail. But my reason to FI early is personal, and I explained that to my sup. So I suppose I'm posting this to say that  you don't always have to hold your intentions as a close secret, sometimes you can reveal early enough to allow for knowledge to be passed on and find out that you are more valuable to your organization than you thought.

Arbitrage

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #414 on: March 12, 2020, 08:05:06 AM »
Anyone considering how the impact of this correction / bear will potentially alter your 2021 FIRE Plans?  Obviously no one knows what will happen, and I will continue investing as I have been, but I wonder if we are actually below our target number come 4/30/2021, if I would still walk away?  I would hate to miss out on the opportunity to continue to pump money into the market as it recovers, but at the same time we have built some safety measures in...  So maybe I'll stay committed to the date regardless of the numbers - within reason. 

Which then leads me to what is my "within reason" value?  Or should I stay in the game a little longer and pump up the safety measures / increase Fat Fire during the recovery.  What's everyones thoughts?  What are you thinking of potentially changing, if anything?  What's your "within reason" value / percentage if you have one?

I just posted a thread about this, since I hadn't seen anyone discussing it.  My 2021 plan was always a bit on the ragged edge; though it looked quite possible early this year, it now appears dead.  Sure, anything could still happen, but I just don't think I'm going to hit my number in time. 

To the people tracking FIRE dates: Consider this my OMY.  I'd love to be back, but I need to be realistic.

FIRE Artist

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #415 on: March 12, 2020, 01:32:33 PM »
I have gone from 99% target spend funded to 69% target funded so it looks like a plan redesign is warranted.  I am no longer expecting to FIRE next year as previously planned, I have no desire to start off my retired life at anything less than my planned pending rate.  I am still lean FIRE, but lean FIRE ain't for me!  And I do kind of like my current job, keeping fingers crossed that they can keep me. 

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #416 on: March 12, 2020, 04:42:15 PM »
Anyone considering how the impact of this correction / bear will potentially alter your 2021 FIRE Plans?

I have, and itís probably not going to impact it. Thatís due to two things (1) Iím in a golden albatross situation, and, (2) because I mostly stuck to my guns in my overall view of the US stock market. That is, I thought it was grossly overpriced and stayed out for the most part. I say ďfor the most part.Ē Iíve been getting smacked with a pretty hefty ďstupid taxĒ the last two weeks. So Iím in the position of being able to buy on sale.

Being the naysayer normally doesnít pay off. Sometimes it does.

ScreamingHeadGuy

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #417 on: March 13, 2020, 06:58:20 PM »
The Indispensable Man

by Saxon White Kessinger

Sometime when you're feeling important;
Sometime when your ego 's in bloom;
Sometime when you take it for granted,
You're the best qualified in the room:
Sometime when you feel that your going,
Would leave an unfillable hole,
Just follow these simple instructions,
And see how they humble your soul. 

Take a bucket and fill it with water,
Put your hand in it up to the wrist,
Pull it out and the hole that's remaining,
Is a measure of how much you'll be missed.
You can splash all you wish when you enter,
You may stir up the water galore,
But stop, and you'll find that in no time,
It looks quite the same as before. 

The moral of this quaint example,
Is to do just the best that you can,
Be proud of yourself but remember,
There's no indispensable man.

Thank you @Buffaloski Boris and @moneypitfeeder.  That helps me put things into perspective.


As to these past two weeks of equity markets - I'm so glad for the work of EarlyRetirementNow and his SWR series (https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-series/).  Based on his "Ultimate Guide" Spreadsheet here are my safe withdrawal rates (your SWR may vary depending on pensions, SS, post-employment income, etc.).

SWR to target Failure Rates, Conditional on S&P500 Drawdown            
S&P500 High   Drdwn 0-10%   Drdwn 10-20%   Drdwn 20-30%   Drdwn>30%
3.53%            3.60%            3.82%                    4.15%                    4.53%

So at the end of February I needed 28.33 times my spending to have 0% chance to "fail" - in my case end with less than 100% starting value.  But, after the nearly-28% below peak we had yesterday I only needed 24.10 times spending (which means my numbers still "pass" - even though I now have less than my target number).  I'm no less shaken by the drop in value, but at least I'm learning to stop worrying and love the bomb. 

icebox92

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #418 on: March 16, 2020, 01:26:59 PM »
The Indispensable Man

by Saxon White Kessinger

Sometime when you're feeling important;
Sometime when your ego 's in bloom;
Sometime when you take it for granted,
You're the best qualified in the room:
Sometime when you feel that your going,
Would leave an unfillable hole,
Just follow these simple instructions,
And see how they humble your soul. 

Take a bucket and fill it with water,
Put your hand in it up to the wrist,
Pull it out and the hole that's remaining,
Is a measure of how much you'll be missed.
You can splash all you wish when you enter,
You may stir up the water galore,
But stop, and you'll find that in no time,
It looks quite the same as before. 

The moral of this quaint example,
Is to do just the best that you can,
Be proud of yourself but remember,
There's no indispensable man.

Thank you @Buffaloski Boris and @moneypitfeeder.  That helps me put things into perspective.


As to these past two weeks of equity markets - I'm so glad for the work of EarlyRetirementNow and his SWR series (https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-series/).  Based on his "Ultimate Guide" Spreadsheet here are my safe withdrawal rates (your SWR may vary depending on pensions, SS, post-employment income, etc.).

SWR to target Failure Rates, Conditional on S&P500 Drawdown            
S&P500 High   Drdwn 0-10%   Drdwn 10-20%   Drdwn 20-30%   Drdwn>30%
3.53%            3.60%            3.82%                    4.15%                    4.53%

So at the end of February I needed 28.33 times my spending to have 0% chance to "fail" - in my case end with less than 100% starting value.  But, after the nearly-28% below peak we had yesterday I only needed 24.10 times spending (which means my numbers still "pass" - even though I now have less than my target number).  I'm no less shaken by the drop in value, but at least I'm learning to stop worrying and love the bomb.

THIS.  I keep meaning to actually run this myself and see the numbers, but I've only been keeping my eye on the Shiller PE Ratio https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe and thinking "I'm sure my SWR has modified..."  Thanks for posting how yours have changed!

Chaplin

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #419 on: March 16, 2020, 09:22:18 PM »
Iím optimistic that current events could speed up my FIRE plans, not delay them. Everyoneís circumstances are different though.

ScreamingHeadGuy

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #420 on: March 31, 2020, 08:15:31 PM »
Finances:
December 2018 - 79.7%
January 2019 - 85.9%
February 2019 - 90.6%
March 2019 - 92.1%
April 2019 - 95.2%
May 2019 - 91.6%
June 2019 - 97.7%
July 2019 - 99.6%
August 2019 - 99.0%
September 2019 - 100.5% (28.1 x expenses)
October 2019 - 102.4% (28.7 x expenses)
November 2019 - 105.0% (29.4 x expenses)
December 2019 - 107.3% (30.0 x expenses)
January 2020 - 109.3% (30.6 x expenses)
February 2020 - 103.7% (29.0 x expenses)
March 2020 - 94.9% (26.6 x expenses)

Okay, I guess March was even worse than February was for equities' returns.  Fortunately we had last week's rally to make the results look less bad than they otherwise would have been.  It looks like I've lost about 1 year of investments this past month.  It seems bad, but - per my previous post about SWR based on S&P500 drawdown from peak - I'm still OK even with my less-than-100% stache.  I am still feeling very blessed with my financial position. 

Life:
Lousy Smarch weather!  It's been wet(ter than normal) - again.  But, given current events, bad weather isn't that significant of a thing. 

The Covid-19 lockdown is into its third week here.  I am getting "sick" of it - each day seems the same.  Our once-hectic evening schedules are now clear and that means we're forced to create our own entertainment.  I've started watching Nature and Nova with the youngest and she seems to enjoy TV time with me.  I'd like to do more family game time, but sometimes I just don't feel up to it after a day of work. 

Speaking of work - it was really nice for the first few days of company-wide work from home.  I had two days when there was very little email or calls while everyone got settled into their home offices (or dining rooms, because that seems to be where half my coworkers have set up their work stations).  But now everyone's back to their routine of sending out too many emails (CC'ing everybody just because) and the routine annoying stuff.  In fact now I think it's worse - I've got three conference calls/meetings a week now because everyone who used to work in an office together "needs to check-in", and I get roped into that BS because my direct supervisor somehow thinks I need to waste 3 hours a week pretending to give a flying F about my coworkers when I/we did just fine with 30 minutes per month before.  I now know why people complain so much about meetings - I guess I'd been blessedly insulated from this waste of time for my entire career up until now (and now I understand why this time-wasting BS can drive folks to want to retire early). 

This past month I took 2 days off of work (1 was PTO and the other was a "sick" day).  I'll be taking a few more days of in April (but that's to do "homeschooling" for my youngest daughter while school is closed on some days when my wife is working).  We had been planning to take a vacation during spring break but, well, best-laid plans and stuff; that would have been a nice week-long break from work - I need to try to work a long vacation into the schedule sometime when travel is allowed (or, well, anything other than "essential business" is; I'll not be picky).

I've been sleeping much better this past week-and-a-half.  I'd started taking St. John's Wort (but I'm not attributing anything to it, necessarily), have been doing a lot more reading before bedtime, and have tried to increase the intensity of my exercise sessions.  Let's just say it's probably a combination of all these things, plus an intentional effort to reduce rumination, which contribute to a less-stressed brain and lets me stay asleep. 

The wife is starting to want another dog.  I'm still not over the passing of our last one.  This past weekend we had  a thunderstorm and I couldn't stop myself from thinking how our last dog would need to snuggle in bed between the two of us when it stormed and that led to all kinds of sweet (and sad and upsetting-at-the-time-but-now-fond) memories about her. 

moneypitfeeder

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #421 on: April 04, 2020, 04:44:18 PM »
Hi Screaming head, glad to hear you and your family are doing well (and that you are sleeping better!). I 100% get your frustration from all the meetings for WFH people. I had been WFH for thee last 5 yrs, but the rest of my newly acquired (merged) department hadn't been. They are driving me bonkers, we now have chat (several channels, so I constantly have something "binging" with a notification), 3 email accounts to track, cloud file locations and work server locations to attempt to maintain version control on document files (we are a press), and now, video chat...'cause they really need to see us in person. Ugh, I have more "contact" now than I have in the past 5 yrs and it has been dragging my productivity down. I did WFH for years w/o all this nonsense, but I suppose if it keeps my new boss happy, then this is my new normal, sigh. Hang in there!

TheContinentalOp

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #422 on: May 01, 2020, 08:49:17 AM »
I check my NW monthly. I am down 9% from Feb 1, 2020 and back to where I was on Sep 1. 2019.

If the market goes sideways from now until next March, I'll pull the trigger on retirement and have enough cash to go two years (three if I push it) without having to sell.

ScreamingHeadGuy

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #423 on: May 02, 2020, 07:45:18 PM »
Finances:
December 2018 - 79.7%
January 2019 - 85.9%
February 2019 - 90.6%
March 2019 - 92.1%
April 2019 - 95.2%
May 2019 - 91.6%
June 2019 - 97.7%
July 2019 - 99.6%
August 2019 - 99.0%
September 2019 - 100.5% (28.1 x expenses)
October 2019 - 102.4% (28.7 x expenses)
November 2019 - 105.0% (29.4 x expenses)
December 2019 - 107.3% (30.0 x expenses)
January 2020 - 109.3% (30.6 x expenses)
February 2020 - 103.7% (29.0 x expenses)
March 2020 - 94.9% (26.6 x expenses)
April 2020 - 100.4% (28.1 x expenses)

My invested assets have recovered to last September's level, and I'm again above my target amount.  I've followed my plan and have rebalanced my asset allocation to 30% bonds/ 70% equities. 

Life:
I have played more D&D in this past month than I have in a month since high school.  I've got an every-other-Friday game, my ongoing once-a-month campaign, PLUS a new every-Tuesday game (since there's nowhere to go and nothing else to do), PLUS I've been DM'ing a weekly game for my family (wife is upset I don't tell her everything, 6-year-old keeps wanting to use her axes (but is too afraid to get into melee and just shoots her bow), and 16-year-old is a normal newbie player).  What a geek I am.

I grew a beard.  Then I cut it off.  Wife doesn't like facial hair.  Daughter said I didn't look like me.  Other folks thought it was a nice beard.  I either forgot about it or kept scratching at it.  Also - it really showed my age with a lot of white. 

This year's Easter was the most un-Easter-like I can ever remember.  Our household has done a very good job of rationing the candy and we still have a bag of jelly beans and a bag of robins' eggs left. 

Work has been slower than usual.  I've spent "downtime" these past two weeks filing months' worth of emails - only 1600 more left to go. 

I tore out the old garden and constructed raised garden beds.  I hope this will give better drainage, make for easier weeding, and provide for better soil (the native dirt is very clayey; raised beds are all imported topsoil) - all of which should give better vegetable results. 

Nine more months of employment are ahead of me - if all goes according to plan.  I sure hope they're as good as this past month has been (and maybe even better if the world can do something about this global pandemic we have going around). 

Edit:  Gas prices were less than $1 per gallon for a week in April, but have since risen quite a bit.  Too bad I didnít need to buy gas.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2020, 06:10:31 AM by ScreamingHeadGuy »

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #424 on: May 13, 2020, 10:12:29 AM »
Add me to this cohort please!

I was optimistically aiming to FIRE near the end of the 2020, but would have needed a year of "normal" growth to get to a number I'm comfortable with.

After the past 2 months, I've lost 2 months of time, and a few hundred thousand dollars, so there is just too much ground to make up for and not enough 2020 left for me to realistically get there. Fortunately, things hit the fan before I reached my FIRE number and not after, so I'm still getting there, just a temporary setback.

lets aim for 12/31/21, and I'd be 37

ScreamingHeadGuy

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #425 on: May 16, 2020, 06:01:31 AM »
We are so glad to have you aboard this ship, MoneyTree.  Sorry you have to push back your date a bit, but I bet your Financial position will be stronger for it.

I have updated the roster table to reflect your addition. 

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #426 on: May 16, 2020, 06:19:33 AM »
Add me to this cohort please!

I was optimistically aiming to FIRE near the end of the 2020, but would have needed a year of "normal" growth to get to a number I'm comfortable with.

After the past 2 months, I've lost 2 months of time, and a few hundred thousand dollars, so there is just too much ground to make up for and not enough 2020 left for me to realistically get there. Fortunately, things hit the fan before I reached my FIRE number and not after, so I'm still getting there, just a temporary setback.

lets aim for 12/31/21, and I'd be 37

Welcome aboard! This is the bestest cohort, so some silver for the clouds.😁 Your plan sounds like a prudent one to me; we are fortunate that weíre in the post COVID cohort. Itíll be easier to adapt if necessary.

MoneyTree

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #427 on: May 16, 2020, 12:23:44 PM »
We are so glad to have you aboard this ship, MoneyTree.  Sorry you have to push back your date a bit, but I bet your Financial position will be stronger for it.

I have updated the roster table to reflect your addition. 


Welcome aboard! This is the bestest cohort, so some silver for the clouds.😁 Your plan sounds like a prudent one to me; we are fortunate that weíre in the post COVID cohort. Itíll be easier to adapt if necessary.

Thanks for the welcome! I actually am very thankful. Approaching FIRE had me worried about a market crash, but weirdly, now that it has actually happened, I'm no longer anxious about it at all.

If COVID had hit just one year later, right after I walked away from the "real job" I think I'd be much more stressed out and second guessing myself like crazy.

Who knows how long the recovery is going to take, but I have the luxury of another year of stashing and retiring into a (hopefully) recovering economy, rather than just hitting an arbitrary date on the 2020 calendar.

4tify

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #428 on: May 23, 2020, 07:46:29 AM »
New page - new posting of the roster.
The roster is updated for everybody through post #425

So far we have 42 folks here who will be FIRE in 2021 and 4 will OLY into 2020. 
Average age of 2021ers is 46.59 (at FIRE date).  2020 average age is 48.32 (so far).  2019 average age was 47.38.


Jumping into the 2021 pool! I was shooting for late 2020 but my contract at work is technically over October 2021 and with all the CV19 uncertainty I figure OMY is a prudent move.

I'll be 54. Old for this crowd I know but still "early" right??

the_fixer

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #429 on: May 23, 2020, 08:08:01 AM »
Welcome!

54 is still an early retirement here in the US.

I can not blame you for hanging on a bit longer during the pandemic nice to have some extra cash flowing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #430 on: May 23, 2020, 05:34:53 PM »
New page - new posting of the roster.
The roster is updated for everybody through post #425

So far we have 42 folks here who will be FIRE in 2021 and 4 will OLY into 2020. 
Average age of 2021ers is 46.59 (at FIRE date).  2020 average age is 48.32 (so far).  2019 average age was 47.38.


Jumping into the 2021 pool! I was shooting for late 2020 but my contract at work is technically over October 2021 and with all the CV19 uncertainty I figure OMY is a prudent move.

I'll be 54. Old for this crowd I know but still "early" right??

Early retirement can be from when you turn 18 until you drop dead. Given that youíre still breathing and have a pulse, looks like early retirement. And youíre younger than me in any case.

4tify

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #431 on: May 24, 2020, 12:30:58 PM »
Welcome!

54 is still an early retirement here in the US.

I can not blame you for hanging on a bit longer during the pandemic nice to have some extra cash flowing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, it all feels a bit dodgy at the moment! And I guess a good reason to stockpile a bit more for extra travel whenever we get to do that again!

4tify

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #432 on: May 24, 2020, 12:32:39 PM »
New page - new posting of the roster.
The roster is updated for everybody through post #425

So far we have 42 folks here who will be FIRE in 2021 and 4 will OLY into 2020. 
Average age of 2021ers is 46.59 (at FIRE date).  2020 average age is 48.32 (so far).  2019 average age was 47.38.


Jumping into the 2021 pool! I was shooting for late 2020 but my contract at work is technically over October 2021 and with all the CV19 uncertainty I figure OMY is a prudent move.

I'll be 54. Old for this crowd I know but still "early" right??

Early retirement can be from when you turn 18 until you drop dead. Given that youíre still breathing and have a pulse, looks like early retirement. And youíre younger than me in any case.

Definitely the bright side of dead! LOL :)

Bateaux

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #433 on: May 28, 2020, 06:25:20 AM »
New page - new posting of the roster.
The roster is updated for everybody through post #425

So far we have 42 folks here who will be FIRE in 2021 and 4 will OLY into 2020. 
Average age of 2021ers is 46.59 (at FIRE date).  2020 average age is 48.32 (so far).  2019 average age was 47.38.


Jumping into the 2021 pool! I was shooting for late 2020 but my contract at work is technically over October 2021 and with all the CV19 uncertainty I figure OMY is a prudent move.

I'll be 54. Old for this crowd I know but still "early" right??

I'm probably going to be 52 at FIRE and consider it early.  I'm 51 for another month.  My last work day could be in December 2020 and vacation time could put my actual retirement around March first 2021.   Watching the recovery to try and make the right decision. 

4tify

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #434 on: May 30, 2020, 02:36:23 PM »
New page - new posting of the roster.
The roster is updated for everybody through post #425

So far we have 42 folks here who will be FIRE in 2021 and 4 will OLY into 2020. 
Average age of 2021ers is 46.59 (at FIRE date).  2020 average age is 48.32 (so far).  2019 average age was 47.38.


Jumping into the 2021 pool! I was shooting for late 2020 but my contract at work is technically over October 2021 and with all the CV19 uncertainty I figure OMY is a prudent move.

I'll be 54. Old for this crowd I know but still "early" right??

I'm probably going to be 52 at FIRE and consider it early.  I'm 51 for another month.  My last work day could be in December 2020 and vacation time could put my actual retirement around March first 2021.   Watching the recovery to try and make the right decision.

I hear you about the recovery. So hard to say but with all commercial real estate about to tank and all these businesses going belly up it seems like we must be heading for a downturn. Driving through LA there's a bunch of for rent signs up and businesses boarded up. Very odd.

I had originally targeted October 2020 but seems prudent to push a year and see how we go!
« Last Edit: May 31, 2020, 07:35:10 AM by tmitchell »

ScreamingHeadGuy

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #435 on: May 30, 2020, 08:44:13 PM »
Finances:
December 2018 - 79.7% (22.3 x expenses)
December 2019 - 107.3% (30.0 x expenses)
January 2020 - 109.3% (30.6 x expenses)
February 2020 - 103.7% (29.0 x expenses)
March 2020 - 94.9% (26.6 x expenses)
April 2020 - 100.4% (28.1 x expenses)
May 2020 - 105.3% (29.5 x expenses)

My invested assets have recovered to last November's level - just 6 months of returns lost at this point in the "downturn".  I found my asset allocation is a little off with 33.8% bonds/ 66.2% equities - I had planned to be at 32.5/67.5 and guess I just got too aggressive in taking gains out of equities this past month.  I guess that just means I'll do less balancing in June to get to my new 35/65 goal. 

Current withdrawal rate is 3.34%.  According to the Earlyretirementnow Toolbox I could have a SWR of 3.84%.  I like that extra safety between my rate and the safe rate.  (Yeah, I'm cautious.  I also have 1.75 years' worth of cash that I don't count in our assets - since it's just cash.) 

Mortgage payoff came this  past week.  I'd miscalculated when I made a principal payment two years ago and we knocked-off 3 months from our normal "payoff" date - oops.  I understand how early payoff can lead to sub-optimal returns vs. investing the cash instead, and I'm okay with being sub-optimal in this item.  Now I'm interested in opening up a HELOC as a "just in case" cushion of cash, but I'd actually want to talk to a person at my credit union about that - and that's not going to be allowable for a bit. 

Life:
I filled up my gas tank this past week.  I didn't need to (still had 1/4 tank left) but I hadn't gotten gas since March and it was time - I also wanted to get milk and bananas that day and it was a downpour...so I drove instead of walking with an umbrella. 

The garden was planted over Memorial Day weekend - green beans, carrots, lettuce, tomatoes, zucchini, and butternut squash.  Everything we'd planted from seed has sprouted in the past week except the carrots and squash (those lazy bums!). 

Since the weather finally decided to warm up the second half of this month I've started to transform my morning walks into morning jogs, with a bike ride thrown in when I need a change-of-pace day. 

The wife found a dog through a rescue organization and we've now got a cutie.  She was listed as a Shi-tzu/Poodle mix, but there is nothing Shi-tzu about her.  The wife thinks she's more dachshund body with poodle legs/tail; I see some retriever in her.  She is integrating into our family and making friends (with people and their dogs) in the neighborhood.   

Going back to work after a long Memorial Day weekend (I also took off the Friday before so I had a FOUR-day weekend) was rough.  But the workload this past week was easy; that happens when my biggest client has put most of its projects on hold.  If I was a normal employee I'd be worried the loss of projects would mean my employer cuts staff, but I've got that fat stache (see above) and I'll just sit around surfing the web/taking long lunches/updating spreadsheets until whatever happens happens (projects come in or staffing cuts). 

Eight months left until my planned departure - less time than it takes to carry a child to term.  I've planned this for many years - even before I knew FIRE was a thing, and way longer than when I/we had actually planned to have a child - that was only 2 years from "yes, lets" to "it's a girl!", and I know I'm prepared (100% financially, ~67% mentally) but, when I really stare into that future date, I still quiver a little bit for what it signifies.  Again - I feel like I'm planning to jump out of a perfectly good airplane. 

Oh, and I turned 41 this past week.  I've been working  in my professional career for 19 years now (started in May 2001), I've "survived" through three recessions, and this is my fourth/last employer.  Now I can honestly say I'm too old (well, maybe just too tired/rich) for this shit.  :-)

LightTripper

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #436 on: June 01, 2020, 07:24:25 AM »
Hi all,

Can I hop on?  I have been working towards FIRE for a while (since I bumped into ERE and MMM and realised it was a "thing").  I am planning to pull the plug either entirely or mainly early next year.

I'm in the UK, age 45, 2 kids (3 and 6), too much in cash and currently gradually throwing money into the stock market in the hope of actually starting to generate some income to live off in retirement....  My partner (largely separate finances) is probably FI, not interested in RE, but works for a start-up so may be involuntarily RE'd at some point!

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #437 on: June 01, 2020, 07:40:12 AM »
My partner (largely separate finances) is probably FI, not interested in RE, but works for a start-up so may be involuntarily RE'd at some point!

Definitely one of the best reasons for anyone to be FI ASAP!  Even before I hit FI, it was pretty awesome when my stache hit a level at which a layoff was pretty indistinguishable from a nice long welcomed vacation....

LightTripper

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #438 on: June 01, 2020, 07:44:46 AM »
Yes!!  I think he wouldn't like RE for other reasons (he needs to be busy and doesn't have a lot of hobbies ... one of my RE projects is to try to find him some so his Retirement whenever it lands is a bit less of a shock to the system :D).  But financially I think he would be OK too, and we would be OK as a family.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #439 on: June 01, 2020, 02:36:22 PM »
Hi all,

Can I hop on?  I have been working towards FIRE for a while (since I bumped into ERE and MMM and realised it was a "thing").  I am planning to pull the plug either entirely or mainly early next year.

I'm in the UK, age 45, 2 kids (3 and 6), too much in cash and currently gradually throwing money into the stock market in the hope of actually starting to generate some income to live off in retirement....  My partner (largely separate finances) is probably FI, not interested in RE, but works for a start-up so may be involuntarily RE'd at some point!

Welcome aboard to the bestest year cohort! We tend to be pretty quiet, but I suppose weíll get noisier as 2021 approaches.

Heck I donít know if Iíll RE in any case cuz I like working, but 2021 seems the most logical year. So thatís the goal.

LightTripper

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #440 on: June 02, 2020, 03:39:40 AM »
Thank you!  I should be working right now, so you can tell how much I like working.

I used to though - so I'm half hoping that my retirement will bring some clarity and maybe I'll find some joy in the job like I used to - or at least be able to find an angle on it/a corner of it that I can still do and get satisfaction from.  It seems a shame to throw away 20 years of building expertise (I know that is largely a sunk cost fallacy: BUT using skills you have really honed does have a satisfaction to it, if you could take away all the horrible bits). 

I think I need at least a break though to get that space to really work out what I want to do with the next bit of my life - and whether it has anything at all to do with my current job or not.

TheContinentalOp

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #441 on: June 04, 2020, 08:45:44 AM »
My net worth is back to where it was in December 2019. Still on track for FIRE in March 2021, but not sure where I'll be moving to. I had hoped to check out potential LOCOL areas this summer, but now I am thinking I'll move to VA's Shenandoah Valley for a year (near my family).

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #442 on: June 04, 2020, 09:05:13 AM »
My net worth is back to where it was in December 2019. Still on track for FIRE in March 2021, but not sure where I'll be moving to. I had hoped to check out potential LOCOL areas this summer, but now I am thinking I'll move to VA's Shenandoah Valley for a year (near my family).

There are some great little LCOL towns in the Shenandoah.  Good Luck!

phildonnia

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #443 on: June 04, 2020, 11:40:12 AM »
June 4, 2021...  365 days until I pull the trigger!

Why June 4?  I'm limited to putting 75% of my salary into my 401(k).  If I go to the max, I can get $26000 in by that date, which is the federal maximum, with a catch-up contribution.  (I'm turning 50 next year!)

Coincidentally, on that date I purchased my house exactly 20 years earlier, so it's a nice sort of anniversary.

Ladychips

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #444 on: June 04, 2020, 12:23:23 PM »
June 4, 2021...  365 days until I pull the trigger!

Why June 4?  I'm limited to putting 75% of my salary into my 401(k).  If I go to the max, I can get $26000 in by that date, which is the federal maximum, with a catch-up contribution.  (I'm turning 50 next year!)

Coincidentally, on that date I purchased my house exactly 20 years earlier, so it's a nice sort of anniversary.

Lovely!!  I so looking forward to my one-year date!!  Love your symmetry!

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #445 on: June 04, 2020, 02:30:05 PM »
June 4, 2021...  365 days until I pull the trigger!

Why June 4?  I'm limited to putting 75% of my salary into my 401(k).  If I go to the max, I can get $26000 in by that date, which is the federal maximum, with a catch-up contribution.  (I'm turning 50 next year!)

Coincidentally, on that date I purchased my house exactly 20 years earlier, so it's a nice sort of anniversary.

Oh wow. Thatís something I need to think about.

ixtap

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #446 on: June 04, 2020, 02:43:05 PM »
June 4, 2021...  365 days until I pull the trigger!

Why June 4?  I'm limited to putting 75% of my salary into my 401(k).  If I go to the max, I can get $26000 in by that date, which is the federal maximum, with a catch-up contribution.  (I'm turning 50 next year!)

Coincidentally, on that date I purchased my house exactly 20 years earlier, so it's a nice sort of anniversary.

Oh wow. Thatís something I need to think about.

All else being equal, this should definitely be a consideration.

If you have an HSA, you also need to determine if you will maintain eligibility in retirement. If not, you may need to scale back personal contributions. Or, if so, you may want to scale up your personal contributions to get to the max.

phildonnia

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #447 on: June 04, 2020, 05:02:32 PM »
If you have an HSA, you also need to determine if you will maintain eligibility in retirement. If not, you may need to scale back personal contributions. Or, if so, you may want to scale up your personal contributions to get to the max.

I don't have an HSA.  I have a really, really good health plan, which is also really, really expensive.  The details are still to be worked out on this.  I'm probably going to end up with a high-deductible plan of some sort, but with no HSA.

logjammin

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #448 on: June 08, 2020, 09:42:31 PM »
Add me as well please. I'm hoping/planning to post and contribute a bit more here ... or if not contribute, at least soak up other people's contributions!

Retirement date is 4/30/2021 (to collect one last annual bonus check from my employer); my age will be 39.

My quick story: I'm a single male (not married, no kids) who ultra-values freedom of time and lazy days. I'm in the process of purchasing a home on the shore of Lago AtitlŠn, Guatemala, an absolutely gorgeous lake I fell in love with when visiting on vacation. I'll be buying all cash, so my expenses will essentially be limited to whatever it takes to live day-to-day Guatemalan life ... which, as you can imagine, isn't much. I'm friendly and social enough that I'm sure I'll make some lake friends, but overall I hope and intend to be a pretty non-social hermit. The property is accessible only by boat, and choosing a place like that is not an accident!

What I'll do with my time? TBD! Probably mostly the same things I do now, except minus the work part.

I want to say I'm "leanfire," but I've seen numbers from others that sure put that into question. The bottom line is I have "enough," even if I needed to weather multiple economic collapses, and I'm in a line of work where I'm reasonably confident I could rejoin the workforce if I absolutely had to (actuary). The only thing that would keep me from pulling the trigger is fear of the unknown, but I've been making plans for months now and I'm fully confidently and happily committed! I'm hoping this thread will help keep me accountable, but to be quite honest I don't think I need any help with that :)

LightTripper

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #449 on: June 09, 2020, 02:49:32 AM »
Wow @logjammin that's exciting!  Do you speak the language or is that one of your retirement projects?

Honestly, of all the concerns I have filling my time is not one (and even pre-kids would not have been one).  Might I miss routine/structures?  Yes possibly - but not for lack of interesting and satisfying things to do instead of work!