Author Topic: 2021 FIRE Cohort  (Read 17808 times)

dreams_and_discoveries

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #100 on: December 31, 2016, 01:25:23 AM »
Hi 2021 cohort, how are we all doing? Has 2016 been good to you?

I'm still looking good and basically on track, after taking a lower paid role and a few stock market wobbles. I'm a bit nervous about currency fluctuations, as a pound is now worth less, still thinking through the impact of this. Managed a great ~80% savings rate in 2016 (mainly due to catch-up contributions), I really budget in tax years, which will give me ~76% savings rate for 2016/2017. Managed to reduce spending from 30k/year to 24k/year, still having as much fun and keeping up everything I love.

In 2017 I hope to keep expenses lean (and hope inflation doesn't rise too much), and keep a strong savings rate. I'll earn less due to increases in taxes, and think I should expect and plan for reducing income in the years to come.

Only 4 years to go now....

dougules

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #101 on: January 03, 2017, 11:43:27 AM »
Hi 2021 cohort, how are we all doing? Has 2016 been good to you?

I'm still looking good and basically on track, after taking a lower paid role and a few stock market wobbles. I'm a bit nervous about currency fluctuations, as a pound is now worth less, still thinking through the impact of this. Managed a great ~80% savings rate in 2016 (mainly due to catch-up contributions), I really budget in tax years, which will give me ~76% savings rate for 2016/2017. Managed to reduce spending from 30k/year to 24k/year, still having as much fun and keeping up everything I love.

In 2017 I hope to keep expenses lean (and hope inflation doesn't rise too much), and keep a strong savings rate. I'll earn less due to increases in taxes, and think I should expect and plan for reducing income in the years to come.

Only 4 years to go now....

I'm still looking good with the top of my distribution curve in late 2021.  I just wish the market would go back down so we're not buying in so expensive. 

dreams_and_discoveries

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #102 on: January 03, 2017, 01:21:39 PM »

I'm still looking good with the top of my distribution curve in late 2021.  I just wish the market would go back down so we're not buying in so expensive.

Yeah, it's great for the net worth figures, not ideal to buy....but can we really time the market?

dougules

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #103 on: January 03, 2017, 01:56:32 PM »

I'm still looking good with the top of my distribution curve in late 2021.  I just wish the market would go back down so we're not buying in so expensive.

Yeah, it's great for the net worth figures, not ideal to buy....but can we really time the market?

No, I'm not going to try market timing.  I'm still holding my nose and buying in at whatever price, but I'm still hoping it goes down in 2017.  Lets keep our fingers crossed.

step-in-time

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #104 on: January 05, 2017, 11:05:06 AM »
Hi 2021 cohort, how are we all doing? Has 2016 been good to you?

I'm still looking good and basically on track, after taking a lower paid role and a few stock market wobbles. I'm a bit nervous about currency fluctuations, as a pound is now worth less, still thinking through the impact of this. Managed a great ~80% savings rate in 2016 (mainly due to catch-up contributions), I really budget in tax years, which will give me ~76% savings rate for 2016/2017. Managed to reduce spending from 30k/year to 24k/year, still having as much fun and keeping up everything I love.

In 2017 I hope to keep expenses lean (and hope inflation doesn't rise too much), and keep a strong savings rate. I'll earn less due to increases in taxes, and think I should expect and plan for reducing income in the years to come.

Only 4 years to go now....

Nice!

2016 has been good for me too. But 2021 is likely too ambitious for me to RE, might feel comfortably FI. If work starts to stink too much, I'll re-evaluate.

Hit $601k this year. Goal is $1.3M stash + paid off house. Looking at 6-10 years out for $1.3M.

Planning a conservative 3% withdrawal rate. Saving 75% of income, small salary bump to $91k for 2017.

Spent $20.5k in 2016. My FIRE budget ($36k) has a big cushion because of unknown health care costs.

MarcherLady

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #105 on: January 05, 2017, 01:01:32 PM »
From a financial aspect the year has been pretty good, Capital Gains were at our best record yet (8.9%) and we overall increased our stash by 26%.  We are on track for hitting our number by July 2020 and retiring in Oct 2020.

As D&D said, Brexit is the fly in the ointment, exchange rates are crap and inflation is bound to go up.   I've been decreasing my future market growth predictions and increasing my future spending provisions in my model to ensure that we are planning for the worst.   

On a non financial aspect the year has been mixed: Brexit again, Trump, one set of minor surgery for each of us.  BUT, in the headline achievement of the year, Husband has bought into both the concept and the timeline for FIRE that I have been evangelising about gently sharing with him, and - while he is still a little resistant to actually changing his spending patterns - is now a believer that we can do this!
One step at a time

Target FIRE: 10/10/2020, but I hang out with the 2021 Cohort

dougules

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #106 on: January 05, 2017, 03:31:12 PM »
From a financial aspect the year has been pretty good, Capital Gains were at our best record yet (8.9%) and we overall increased our stash by 26%.  We are on track for hitting our number by July 2020 and retiring in Oct 2020.

As D&D said, Brexit is the fly in the ointment, exchange rates are crap and inflation is bound to go up.   I've been decreasing my future market growth predictions and increasing my future spending provisions in my model to ensure that we are planning for the worst.   

On a non financial aspect the year has been mixed: Brexit again, Trump, one set of minor surgery for each of us.  BUT, in the headline achievement of the year, Husband has bought into both the concept and the timeline for FIRE that I have been evangelising about gently sharing with him, and - while he is still a little resistant to actually changing his spending patterns - is now a believer that we can do this!

Sweet!

Try doing what we did.  Get him to take out one of his luxuries at a time solely on a temporary basis, then see if he really misses it after a few months.   I think slowly winding down works a lot better if your hair's not on fire. (sorry to go engineer, but a damped curve doesn't ring).
« Last Edit: January 05, 2017, 03:34:38 PM by dougules »

Accountant007

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #107 on: January 06, 2017, 12:55:58 PM »
Hi 2021 cohort, how are we all doing? Has 2016 been good to you?

Mixed bag, here.  Retirement savings and net worth look fantastic, but mostly just due to inflated markets.  Spending for 2016 was horrible after a very good 2015.  Hopeful to get back on track in 2017.  Still solidly in 2021, but also still hoping there is a chance to move that up a year.

nazar

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #108 on: January 29, 2017, 12:00:19 PM »
Hi 2021 cohort, how are we all doing? Has 2016 been good to you?

2016 was great.  I finally got DH to fully buy into FIRE, and even quantified for him specific values for the benefits I'd leave on the table if I FIRE earlier, and he agreed I should move my date up if we make the stretch goals, so maybe I'll be joining the group for a different year if things go well.   I'm a bit nervous about a post ACA environment with this presidency,  but am hopeful that "repeal and replace" is successful.  Wait and see.

2017 goals: Visit Italy, replace house doors, review asset allocations, build upon successes and failures from the edibles garden.




dreams_and_discoveries

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #109 on: January 29, 2017, 02:27:59 PM »
Great to hear the updates, looks like a good few of us are eyeing up 2020...

Chaplin

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #110 on: January 29, 2017, 11:13:08 PM »
Great to hear the updates, looks like a good few of us are eyeing up 2020...

2016 was ridiculously good for our net worth: a $255K (Canadian) increase made up of ($90K financial, $155K home equity). I changed jobs which should have been a big improvement on the happiness front, but it's been a bit of bust so far because of very long hours. The much shorter commute is good though.

The best thing about 2016, though, was achieving clarity on the need to get much more aggressive with our expenses to meet our 2021 FIRE target. Now that we're doing that, I'm wondering if we could squeak into 2020, or do something completely different like downshift significantly by going part time at the expense of delaying an actual FIRE date.

WildJager

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #111 on: February 04, 2017, 02:38:03 PM »
Update on goals for 2016
In blue below

-Getting my private pilot license, for post fire occupation.
Still working on this, still have plenty of time and I really enjoy doing it.
[/quote

Just in case you weren't tracking it, to make money as a pilot you'll need a commercial license.  It's not really a huge deal to get one (no where near getting an ATP for the big rigs) but it's a requirement.

WildJager

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #112 on: February 04, 2017, 02:45:00 PM »
dougules         (at 43) December 27, 2021
MarcherLady    (at 49) October 10, 2020
Chaplin           (at 47ish) March 23, 2021
Accountant007  (at 48) December 23, 2021
dreams_and_discoveries (just before 40) February 2021
GBRS              (at 36) Sept, 2021
Bownyboy       (at 29) 25th December 2021
SassyG            (at 54) (official date TBD) 2021
WildJager       (at 35) May 2021

Currently at 37x annual expenses.  The only reason I haven't pulled the trigger is because I legally can't (military commitment).  Anticipating retiring with around 60x annual expenses when they'll finally let us go.  Can't say it's a bad problem to have forcing our stash to grow, but the limited agency can be exhausting some days. 

We plan on doing small side gigs post retirement, so it's fairly safe to say that our stash could survive the market imploding on itself effectively.

dreams_and_discoveries

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #113 on: February 05, 2017, 04:53:46 AM »
dougules         (at 43) December 27, 2021
MarcherLady    (at 49) October 10, 2020
Chaplin           (at 47ish) March 23, 2021
Accountant007  (at 48) December 23, 2021
dreams_and_discoveries (just before 40) February 2021
GBRS              (at 36) Sept, 2021
Bownyboy       (at 29) 25th December 2021
SassyG            (at 54) (official date TBD) 2021
WildJager       (at 35) May 2021

Currently at 37x annual expenses.  The only reason I haven't pulled the trigger is because I legally can't (military commitment).  Anticipating retiring with around 60x annual expenses when they'll finally let us go.  Can't say it's a bad problem to have forcing our stash to grow, but the limited agency can be exhausting some days. 

We plan on doing small side gigs post retirement, so it's fairly safe to say that our stash could survive the market imploding on itself effectively.

That's impressive WildJager, how are you planning to spend your retirement?

WildJager

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #114 on: February 05, 2017, 04:05:12 PM »
Some slow travel for a while to find a culture we'd like to settle down in.  Eventually, find some land and do some hobby homesteading.

We both want to do some side gigs, more to do things we love than for money.  I want to teach flying to keep up in the air (I'm a "pilot" now, but in the military that ends up practically becoming a side gig in itself as you gain rank).  I also love cooking, and I'm thinking of getting my feet wet trying the chef thing somewhere.  My wife is very artistic, so she'll probably focus on that (actually sell some work instead of just donating it) and she's expressed an interest in becoming a tattoo artist.

Many other options have been thrown out too.  The general idea is that we eventually want to buy some land and build a house.  In that vein, I plan on picking up several trade jobs over the years to learn housing skills to a more competent level.  Plumbing, electrical, general building, etc.  I've done some volunteering for habituate for humanity for that same reason (trade my time for learning some skills), but after we retire that will be much more of a focus.

So, with that rambling all done, basically the point is we have many paths we want to pursue, and lots of time to do it.  In the end though, this will probably amount to my family saying, "You quit your career to become a burger flipper? WTF is wrong with you!"

Eh, only so much you can do.  ;)

dreams_and_discoveries

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #115 on: February 07, 2017, 01:32:42 AM »
That sounds like a great plan :).

I'm at 4 years to go exactly now, and it feels like FIRE is getting closer and seems almost more real, if you know what I mean?

Chaplin

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #116 on: February 07, 2017, 07:21:50 AM »
So, with that rambling all done, basically the point is we have many paths we want to pursue, and lots of time to do it.  In the end though, this will probably amount to my family saying, "You quit your career to become a burger flipper? WTF is wrong with you!"

All kinds of great stuff in your list! I'll probably get the above at some point since I'm sure I'll sling lattes for a few months just to try it out.

Strick

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #117 on: February 22, 2017, 06:13:58 PM »
OK, I've got to make myself pick a year, so I'm joining 2021....  I should be around a decent safe withdraw rate of pretty comfortable for us expenses, and I'll still be 49 (if I don't beat 50 in this crowd it seems like I'm a slacker....

stashyMel

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #118 on: March 06, 2017, 04:44:49 PM »
We are turning 40 this year and should hit $700k by year end plus a paid off house. I just want to know we are save for health insurance. Only time will tell. If I work 30 years, there is health insurance at a fixed rate. If I retire early, who knows outside of the marketplace.
Lurking for years. Home debt free and halfway to FIRE.

Greenback Reproduction Specialist

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #119 on: April 03, 2017, 04:28:43 PM »
OK, I've got to make myself pick a year, so I'm joining 2021....  I should be around a decent safe withdraw rate of pretty comfortable for us expenses, and I'll still be 49 (if I don't beat 50 in this crowd it seems like I'm a slacker....
Congrats!!!! We are the best year after all ;)
FIRE.... Remember, it's closer than it feels.



CrazyIT

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #120 on: June 27, 2017, 01:39:26 PM »
I'm adding myself to the 2021 club!

Currently 53:  Divorced 5 years ago which set me back a bit.  I am FI but want to build a house when I fire so I am trying to add cash to the stash for the next 4 years.

-Current house is paid for and is a duplex so half is rented out.  Own one other Duplex that's also rented (and paid for)
-Kids done with college
-$650k in 401k\IRA (maxing out 401K each year)
-$230K in cash ( I know thats to much but want to build the house with cash.  In Ally account earning 1.05%)

Plan to subdivide my property and build the house then rent both sides of my primary residence (duplex)

Hope to do as much work on the house as my talents allow me.  Then plan to pick up an RV and travel around the US for 6 months or so with the GF.  She seems to be on board with the FIRE date too.

With my rental income I should not have to tap my retirement income much.  I struggle factoring those into any FIRE calculators.
4 1/2 years and counting

dreams_and_discoveries

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #121 on: June 28, 2017, 12:25:45 AM »
Welcome to the 2021 club crazy; your RV plan sounds awesome.

sisto

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #122 on: July 13, 2017, 06:29:02 PM »
Thought it was a good time to check in here. I hope everyone is doing well. I still haven't picked a formal date yet and had been OMYing myself a bit to in order to cash in on some stuff with regards to work bonuses and sabbatical. I'm now getting to the point that I'm really burned out. Work has just been really bad lately which is making me consider going sooner. I'm hearing more rumors of more cutbacks and wondering if I should just pull the trigger and take some part time of consulting work. I'd always hoped to engineer leaving on a nice voluntary separation package, but I'm afraid this might be a bit too early.
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MarcherLady

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #123 on: July 16, 2017, 06:20:14 AM »
Hi, sisto, all is well with me, although I found an embarrassing error in my FIREsheet this week.  I have several company pensions, including one at my current job.  The payout won't be high, they are forecasting around 3k pa when I retire at 65.  Have you all spotted the 'deliberate' mistake?  3k pa in ~20 years time is forecast on the assumption that I and the company will be making contributions to that account for the next 20 years.  That is not the plan.  There is no way in hell that account will pay out 3k pa if contributions stop in <3 years time. :-(  Luckily that pension was a tiny proportion of our planned income. I've done a basic re-forecast and am projecting it will pay out 800 pa (I think that is suitably realistic) and that has moved the date we hit our 'number' by about 6 months to December 2020.  I'm hoping that the layer upon layer of pessimistic estimation of growth rates and spending rates that I've baked into the plan will mean that Oct 2020 is still feasible... time will tell as my forecasts become historic values.  I might be back in the '21 club after all!

What makes the miscalculation even more annoying is that I successfully applied that logic to Hub's pension, but forgot to apply it to my own.   
One step at a time

Target FIRE: 10/10/2020, but I hang out with the 2021 Cohort

dreams_and_discoveries

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #124 on: July 16, 2017, 01:55:01 PM »
Hey MarcherLady, don't beat yourself up about it, we've all made little mistakes like that.

And 2021 isn't too shoddy a year to be hanging around in....

Unique User

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #125 on: July 17, 2017, 05:42:42 AM »
Officially joining the 2021 club.  I kept thinking it was 2022 or 2023 for me due to a teen in college, but the plan now is sometime around April-May 2021.  I'll be 52, late to the party, but we lived in a ski resort for several years working only part of the year so it set us back a bit.  Now how to get through the next four years.

sisto

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Re: 2021 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #126 on: July 17, 2017, 12:27:32 PM »
Hi, sisto, all is well with me, although I found an embarrassing error in my FIREsheet this week.  I have several company pensions, including one at my current job.  The payout won't be high, they are forecasting around 3k pa when I retire at 65.  Have you all spotted the 'deliberate' mistake?  3k pa in ~20 years time is forecast on the assumption that I and the company will be making contributions to that account for the next 20 years.  That is not the plan.  There is no way in hell that account will pay out 3k pa if contributions stop in <3 years time. :-(  Luckily that pension was a tiny proportion of our planned income. I've done a basic re-forecast and am projecting it will pay out 800 pa (I think that is suitably realistic) and that has moved the date we hit our 'number' by about 6 months to December 2020.  I'm hoping that the layer upon layer of pessimistic estimation of growth rates and spending rates that I've baked into the plan will mean that Oct 2020 is still feasible... time will tell as my forecasts become historic values.  I might be back in the '21 club after all!

What makes the miscalculation even more annoying is that I successfully applied that logic to Hub's pension, but forgot to apply it to my own.
Ouch, sorry to hear that, but glad you found it now. :)
It amazes me how many people here in the US use their estimates from Social Security for how much they'll get monthly. It very clearly states that the estimate is based on you continuing to make the exact same amount of money every year until you retire with the key that when you retire is one of the options in your estimate that is  62, 67, or 70. So you will A, likely make more money each year and B, you are going to retire early so you have to factor in $0 for the years you don't work or at least know your 30 year window. It's sad because many people will be getting way less than they think.
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