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General Discussion => Welcome and General Discussion => Topic started by: kenmoremmm on March 20, 2020, 01:49:07 AM

Title: 2020 unemployment predictions
Post by: kenmoremmm on March 20, 2020, 01:49:07 AM

BLS data by sector:
https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-sector.htm

without running numbers, my gut tells me we're going to go north of 20% by the end of april.

i was just listening to marketplace podcast and they said great recession capped out around 10% and great depression around 24%.

let's see what you got.

Title: Re: 2020 unemployment predictions
Post by: frugalnacho on March 20, 2020, 01:28:49 PM

Easily approaching 20% already if the people I know personally are a representative sample.

Title: Re: 2020 unemployment predictions
Post by: ender on March 20, 2020, 02:06:23 PM

I don't know even if I want to know.

Title: Re: 2020 unemployment predictions
Post by: BigMoneyJim on March 20, 2020, 02:15:12 PM

Mnuchin set a goal post of 20%. I figured he wouldn't have done that unless he thought it could be avoided, but that may be giving politicians too much credit.

But it does seem like a red line they've set for themselves.

Title: Re: 2020 unemployment predictions
Post by: Arrian on March 20, 2020, 03:50:22 PM

My brother that works in food service in San Francsico is on "furlough" but it's likely his employer can only keep going another 2-3 weeks on lockdown before having to shut their doors forever.

My other brother in Montana works in manufacturing - they're still there, for now, but he expects if/ when that county takes action he'll be furloughed as well.

I am not a pessimist but if this lockdown period is extended for another 3-4 weeks I think 20% unemployment will be realistic.