Author Topic: 2020 FIRE Cohort  (Read 147570 times)

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #550 on: November 05, 2018, 01:12:49 PM »
October 2018 highlights:

- Running a few days behind on our monthly update as we just returned from a vacation enjoying time with friends and the outdoors in our future FIRE location!

- October brought us all a touch of market volatility ... all things considered, this was a solid month - we met our savings goals, took the opportunity to allocate cash into the market, and had a great vacation! 

- October was good progress in the yoga and weight training department ... however, I probably more than offset my vacation hiking with vacation food & drink but oh well!  I'll do my monthly weigh-in later today, and I'm sure I've got another 5# or so by end of year to reach my goal.

- Still dealing with some emerging needs from my aging parents, and I will continue to pursue a remote work arrangement to temporarily support them.  If successful, this could possibly lead to a longer term remote arrangement that could 1) accelerate our move to our FIRE location and 2) pad the stash / retain healthcare benefits for an extra few years.  Definitely worth thinking about; we shall see what unfolds.  My primary near-term goal is to ensure my parents are supported and to come up with a more sustainable plan.

- Our ideal countdown target is now @ 17 months (WHAT!?!?).  Our old (original) target is now at 32 months.


EOY 2015: 56.2%
EOY 2016: 70.6%
EOY 2017: 78.6%

JAN 2018:  78.8%
FEB 2018:  77.3%
MAR 2018: 77.6%
APR 2018:  80.3%
MAY 2018:  81.9%
JUN 2018:  83.3%
JUL 2018:  83.9%
AUG 2018: 84.4%
SEP 2018:  86.5%
OCT 2018: 85.8%

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #551 on: November 06, 2018, 05:36:49 AM »
My company signed a project that ends with a bang in April 2020.  Talked with my boss about if I stay (we've both been talking about leaving this year) I wanted to negotiate a layoff with my vacation paid out on May 1, 2020, she agreed!  Husband had been planning on April 1, 2020 since bonuses are paid at his company end of March.  He's getting cold feet, fingers crossed my offer to get another FTE job if our numbers don't work out will help him stay the course!

Freedomin5

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #552 on: November 06, 2018, 07:16:13 AM »
I have one foot in the 2019 thread and one foot in the 2020 thread. 2020 would be a nice comfortable fully funded cushiony FIRE. 2019 would be a “I hate my work and have completely burnt out FIRE”. We will know by early next year whether I’ll be able to make it to 2020, as part of it also depends on whether my work decides to renew my contract for another year.

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #553 on: November 06, 2018, 07:53:49 AM »
I have one foot in the 2019 thread and one foot in the 2020 thread. 2020 would be a nice comfortable fully funded cushiony FIRE. 2019 would be a “I hate my work and have completely burnt out FIRE”. We will know by early next year whether I’ll be able to make it to 2020, as part of it also depends on whether my work decides to renew my contract for another year.

There are more of us. I am also in both threads. I am pretty stressed from work and so is DH. So we would really want to FIRE in autumn 2019. But as we are depending on getting a good price for the clown house, we might have to OMY it if it doesn't work out.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #554 on: November 06, 2018, 09:46:07 AM »
I have one foot in the 2019 thread and one foot in the 2020 thread. 2020 would be a nice comfortable fully funded cushiony FIRE. 2019 would be a “I hate my work and have completely burnt out FIRE”. We will know by early next year whether I’ll be able to make it to 2020, as part of it also depends on whether my work decides to renew my contract for another year.
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FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #555 on: December 01, 2018, 04:22:59 PM »
November 2018 highlights:

- All things considered, another solid month!  Market volatility continues (I wonder what Monday will bring ...) but we stuck to the plan, met our savings goals and allocated more cash into the market.

- November brought a nice (long) relaxing Thanksgiving weekend ... enjoyed the day with close friends & their family, and used the weekend to catch up on some minor projects around the house.  Last week my DW took a trip to Vegas to visit family while I went for my 2nd trip to India on a business trip.  It's crazy how fast one accumulates airline frequent flier miles after making a couple of international trips on business class!

- Staying reasonably active & making healthy eating choices ... I'm planning to keep things dialed in pretty tight between now and when we travel to visit family for the Christmas holidays.  Aside from the yoga & weight training, we got the bikes back out this month to enjoy the cooler weather.

- Big news regarding my plans to help deal with some health support needs for my aging parents ... I now have approval (in writing) from my management and HR to trial a remote work arrangement during 2019.  I requested a 6-month stint rotating between remote and regular work schedules, and am thrilled that this will 1) enable me to be with them to help, and 2) give me a chance to demonstrate a good track record of working at a remote, flexible location.  It would still be a "VERY" long shot, but working remotely from our future FIRE location for a while would be a great transition.

- Our ideal countdown target is now @ 16 months :-) ... the old (original) target is 31 months.


EOY 2015: 56.2%
EOY 2016: 70.6%
EOY 2017: 78.6%

JAN 2018:  78.8%
FEB 2018:  77.3%
MAR 2018: 77.6%
APR 2018:  80.3%
MAY 2018:  81.9%
JUN 2018:  83.3%
JUL 2018:  83.9%
AUG 2018: 84.4%
SEP 2018:  86.5%
OCT 2018: 85.8%
NOV 2018: 87.0%

FIREby2021

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #556 on: December 04, 2018, 02:19:04 PM »
758 days

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #557 on: December 23, 2018, 10:50:15 AM »
Crickets in here lately.

Is everyone still tracking for 2020? If we recover by then, this will be a gift in disguise =)

Rubyvroom

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #558 on: December 24, 2018, 07:35:44 AM »
For us, I think it's too early to say one way or the other, so our plans are still for 2020.

Last summer we saw home prices that were far above what we would have expected if/when we sell, which would have provided a boost to our numbers, however things have slowed down since. I'm curious how things will look this spring. We still are taking small steps to get the house ready to sell (repairs, paint, etc.), but we aren't in any rush to move. Though if prices continue to rise, it's very tempting to cash out of the housing market a couple of years early and move into a rental in the interim (yes, that's trying to time a market, but it's tempting to just lock in those profits given how close we are).

Market volatility of course did not help our earnings for the year, but I still continue to pump money into the market whenever I have it. We had bought land earlier in 2018 (part of our FIRE plan) and every time the market rose, we were kicking ourselves for taking money out. Now it seems like a genius diversifying strategy. Either way, the land is what we're retiring to and is a part of the grand plan, so we've tried to stop stop thinking about it in terms of what the market is doing.

Over the next few days here I'm going to re-allocate our retirement assets into wash-sale friendly funds to make sure we're ready to tax-loss harvest heading into 2019. I unfortunately am not able to harvest in 2018 because I hadn't thought this all through yet and I already bought in to the fund I'd harvest from in mid-December, but I can be proactive and make sure our investments are ready for harvesting in the near future, assuming markets continue to decline. I'll keep an eye on our allocation as well and if we fall below the 90/10 in our IPS, I'll re-balance accordingly.

Other than that though, we haven't changed our plans in any way. We're still eyeing 2020, and we always knew the path forward certainly wouldn't follow our nice, evenly spaced spreadsheet forecasting, but it certainly has turned into a bumpy ride lol. Though this market decline is precisely what I was worried about happening shortly before or shortly after we retired, and so a part of me is happy the market is having its hiccups now rather than later. Though I feel badly for the late 2018 / early 2019 cohort, because I know if it were me, this crap certainly would give me pause and it'd be difficult to resist OMY.

apurplelife

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #559 on: December 24, 2018, 01:14:53 PM »
Crickets in here lately.

Is everyone still tracking for 2020? If we recover by then, this will be a gift in disguise =)

I'm still in! We'll see how long this market is down for.

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #560 on: December 24, 2018, 02:53:11 PM »
For right now we’re still in for May 2020. If we have to work some contract jobs to cover expenses and give the stash another year to recover we’re ok with that.

Maenad

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #561 on: December 24, 2018, 04:31:04 PM »
We're probably going to be bumped to 2021 or 2022. Them's the breaks! If that was an unacceptable risk I would have had a lower stock allocation.

rab-bit

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #562 on: December 24, 2018, 06:46:32 PM »
We're still on track for March 2020. We had been thinking about Fall 2019, but that ship  has probably sailed now. If anything, we could delay until later in 2020, but things would have to get really bad for us to delay any longer than that.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #563 on: December 24, 2018, 09:02:14 PM »
Back in September I was projecting FI by June 2019, now I'm out to March 1, 2020. Pushed back 9 months, and I'm sure we aren't even close to the bottom. Taking a sabbatical in June of 2020, unless we have a cataclysmic meltdown, in which case I'll be living in a van down by the river out of necessity anyway =D

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #564 on: December 25, 2018, 03:33:00 AM »
 Currently still planning for end of 2020.

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #565 on: December 27, 2018, 10:01:35 AM »
No reason at this point to deviate from our 2020 goal, but I know this EOY update will have a black-eye based on the recent market correction.

On the flip side, we've started taking advantage of the market "sale" last week to begin serious deployment of our cash proceeds from the Jan-2018 sale of our HCOL home!  Market allocations should return to our long-term target % over the coming month(s).

Happy New Year to the 2020 cohort!  Looking forward to preparing our EOY update / 2019 Outlook next week.

FIREby2021 

ysette9

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #566 on: December 27, 2018, 11:23:53 AM »
I think we are still not going to make 2020, but since I had flagged that several years back as our goal, I'll post here anyway. Our numbers are all over the place so I don't have the specificity that really is required to know if we are in this cohort. We are at 70% of our current FI goal and due to some unexpectedly high income in 2018, our savings rate was 70%. 2019 income will be less unless the stock prices of our companies go nuts, but whatever it is, all of the extra stock vesting and bonuses and whatnot will go straight into investments. Spending is outlandish, in part due to two kids in childcare, but so it goes for now. The uncertainty in things like where we will live, what spending will be like once our kids are older, and healthcare make the FI target squishy.

On the other hand we are talking more about reducing to part-time at some point. I'd love to sweet talk my husband into doing that by Fall 2019 when our oldest starts school. I suspect something big will have to change by that point because our current life is unsustainable if we add one kiddo going to school to the mix.

Has the current market dip made anyone's target date push out a touch?

RedefinedHappiness

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #567 on: December 27, 2018, 12:35:04 PM »
I think it is too early to say whether it has changed our plans or not. It was a (necessary?) wake up call for sure. Dealing with the mental and emotional impact of a big dip is probably good for me. Financially, I'd say i'm happy this is happening now while I still have a steady paycheck.

If this is a long term correction to get to a more "appropriate" Schiller ratio, then yes, it will push my plans out. But since I've moved to a more appropriate, lower stress job, I've been very non committal to a specific date anyway. If I work "too long" and end up having left over money that I can use to avoid disagreements with my partner or if I can use it for good charitable causes, that might make me happier.

As I get closer to my date, I've been focusing my attention on my overarching purpose and mental health instead of my previous exhausting single minded mission to hit a number. I think this drop would have crushed me 1-2 years ago.

Bateaux

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #568 on: December 29, 2018, 09:25:18 AM »
Hopefully we get a recovery of the stock market and continued growth into 220.  If so, I'll have 250 more 12 hour shifts to go till August 2020.

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #569 on: December 29, 2018, 12:04:05 PM »
Hopefully we get a recovery of the stock market and continued growth into 220.  If so, I'll have 250 more 12 hour shifts to go till August 2020.

Some "experts" expect the stockmarket in 2019 to be very volatile.

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #570 on: December 29, 2018, 08:51:53 PM »
Spent some time this evening with half an eye on college football as I wrapped up our 2018 tracking and budget sheets.  Waiting on a few numbers after 31-Dec before we can finalize the 2018 net worth progress update (a step backwards for sure), but did want to document what we learned from this first full year of detailed cost-tracking.

Our target NW was based on an annual budget of $60k.  We 'felt' we'd be close, but had never done a deep-dive (tracked every dollar).  What did we find?

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

Where did our after-tax money go?

SAVE ---> 63%
SPEND -> 25%
GIVE ---> 12%

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

Adjusting for our future FIRE location and per ACTUAL 2018 spend, our predicted FIRE budget is $64k ... whoa!

We expect to ELIMINATE the following categories in the future:  Savings, Giving (will come from a separate fund), Rent/Mortgage, House Cleaning
We expect to REDUCE spend in the following categories:  Transportation (shift from 2 cars to 1 car and no commute)

So what is the projected breakdown of this MASSIVE $64k annual budget (2 adults, no kids, no pets)?:

23%: HOUSING (Property Tax, Insurance, Maintenance Fund, Utilities, Indoor/Outdoor Misc)
21%: HEALTHCARE (Insurance, Dr/Dentist visits, Supplements, Gym)
16%: TRAVEL (1 big trip & 3-4 smaller trips)
15%: FOOD (Eating In, Eating Out)
8%:  TRANSPORTATION (Insurance, Gas, Tolls, Service, Repairs)
6%:  ENTERTAINMENT (Events, Gifts for others)
4%:  PERSONAL CARE (Clothes, Hair, Nails, Toiletries)
4%:  COMMUNICATIONS (Phones, Internet, Television)
3%:  BUSINESS (Both of our misc business expenses - keeping for now)

While this represents a slight uptick to our previously planned $60k/year, we finally have good data.  For the most part, we are happy with how we have dialed in our Expenses over the last few years and want to keep a similar quality of life in FIRE as we have now.  This will also position us to have room to cut, should we experience poor market returns during the first 5-10 years.  Trimming a few luxury items like Travel, Home Maintenance savings, etc. give us an easy path to get down toward $50k/year without really impinging on our day-to-day lifestyle.

Now that I have a process in place and a template by which to track things, I'll repeat this for 2019 to see how that data compares.  #nerdalert



robtown

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #571 on: December 31, 2018, 03:07:57 PM »

Has the current market dip made anyone's target date push out a touch?

Yes, more like a hit.  Sitting on a safe mix of bonds was not getting us to retire any earlier so I run/ran my investments with more risk.
Original plan April 2020,  now perhaps December 2020.   The effect of nine more months of social security and 401k payments,  plus not pulling on 401k makes a difference,  It also puts me that much closer to FRA (we are not young).
My wife retires Wednesday and may get a part time job.   Her pension and my full social security will be higher than planned.   In addition, she can take spousal social security payout when I apply at full retirement age (FRA),  which I did not include in my calculations.
I am hoping to drop to part time (27 - 30 hours a week) and have four day weekends.   If I can start that within the next six months I think I can make it until December 2020 and maybe even a bit more.

ysette9

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #572 on: December 31, 2018, 11:38:11 PM »
Sometimes I think the perfect sweet spot would be working 20 hours a week. I vacillate between wanting that for quality of life sooner versus pedal-to-the-metal save until we reach full FI.

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #573 on: January 01, 2019, 11:04:27 AM »
December 2018 highlights:

- As expected, market volatility continued ... despite meeting our monthly savings goals the market gave us all a bit of a black eye in December!  Temporary, of course, and we are thankful to still be in accumulation mode!

-  As shared earlier this year, we sold our HCOL home in Jan-2018 and moved into a rental.  Given our opinion of high market valuations at the time, we did not immediately deploy the proceeds into the market.  We made a few nibbles during the Feb-Mar-Apr time frame, but finally started making more significant purchases during the week of 17-Dec.  We consider ourselves fortunate to have kept VMMXX (2.5% yield money market) as one of our largest 2018 holdings.  One of our stated 2018 goals was to move back to our target 75/25 allocation by EOY 2018, however this process has just now started.  We expect to reclaim 75/25 during Q1-2019 by moving from VMMXX to VTSAX in equal chunks across Jan/Feb 2019.

- REALLY looking forward to getting back to a routine when it comes to diet and exercise.  We had a nice trip visiting family before Christmas, but I did catch a cold in the process.  Feeling much better now and am ready to dive back into yoga & weight training to build on my 2018 progress!

- Our ideal countdown target is now @ 15 months ... more on that in the next post outlining our 2018 Summary and 2019 Goals!


EOY 2015: 56.2%
EOY 2016: 70.6%
EOY 2017: 78.6%
EOY 2018: 84.8%


JAN 2018:  78.8%
FEB 2018:  77.3%
MAR 2018: 77.6%
APR 2018:  80.3%
MAY 2018:  81.9%
JUN 2018:  83.3%
JUL 2018:  83.9%
AUG 2018: 84.4%
SEP 2018:  86.5%
OCT 2018: 85.8%
NOV 2018: 87.0%
DEC 2018: 84.8%

FIREby2021

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #574 on: January 01, 2019, 11:33:49 AM »
OK 2020 crew, Happy New Year and we are another year closer to our goal!!  We've put the wraps on another great year!  DW and I started our FIRE journey in earnest in 2015 after years of so-so spending habits, and have kept our sights on 2020 as our target to reach FI, enable a departure from the corporate world, and make a move to our "dream" L(M)COL location in the northwest US!


KEY ANNUAL STATS (Net After-Taxes):

2015 Savings Rate = 51.0%
2015 Giving Rate = 11.2%

2016 Savings Rate = 65.5%
2016 Giving Rate = 12.5%

2017 Savings Rate = 64.4%
2017 Giving Rate = 11.5%

2018 Savings Rate = 63.0%
2018 Giving Rate = 12.0%


=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

PREVIOUS TARGET / PROGRESS METRICS

EOY 2015 FIRE Progress = 56.2%
EOY 2016 FIRE Progress = 70.6%
EOY 2017 FIRE Progress = 78.6%
EOY 2018 FIRE Progress = 84.8%

// FI target had been defined as 3.5% SWR, mortgage-free + giving fund //

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

REVISED TARGET / PROGRESS METRICS!

OK look, if you've been following along you know that we completed a DEEP-DIVE into our 2018 expenses (tracked every dollar) for the first time.  We learned that we SAVED 63%, SPENT 25% and GAVE 12% of our after-tax dollars.  We converted our actual spend to our future LCOL FIRE scenario and realized our target annual spend projects to $64k, not $60k.  We have also decided on setting aside a modest cash fund to cover our first (partial) year FIRE spending - essentially a conservative step to cover "year 1" of our sequence of returns risk.  Yes, both of these adjustments require a LARGER savings target.  However, we are not completely crazy ... after conducting some serious SWR analysis, using Big ERN's SWR ToolBox 2.0, we have adjusted our planned SWR up from 3.50% to 3.75%!  This has largely offset the impact of $64k annual spend and the additional lump sum savings for Year 1.  Our FIRE Progress % stats will all shift going forward, connected to our revised outlook, and now look like this:

EOY 2015 FIRE Progress = 53.8%
EOY 2016 FIRE Progress = 67.8%
EOY 2017 FIRE Progress = 75.5%
EOY 2018 FIRE Progress = 81.6%

// FI target now defined as $65k @ 3.75% SWR, mortgage-free + giving/lump sum fund //

Key goals for 2019 are:

1. Achieve an after-tax savings rate of 65%
2. Attain 92% of progress toward our FIRE NW target (equivalent of SWR nut + paid off FIRE home mortgage)
3. Reclaim our desired AA (75/25) for the SWR nut
4. Decide on rental strategy for our FIRE home // current rental lease is up Sep-2019 // impacts potential FIRE month timing
5. Study Healthcare options and repeat DEEP DIVE into 2019 expenses to confirm our outlook

Happy New Year!

FIREby2021
« Last Edit: January 08, 2019, 10:21:59 AM by FIREby2021 »

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #575 on: January 02, 2019, 07:56:01 AM »
Here is where we ended up for 2018

Combined Spending - $37,250
Combined Income - $128,000
Combined Net Worth - $515,100 (+14%)
Combined 2018 Savings Rate - 71%
Years of Combined Expenses - 13.8X
Current WR% - 7.23%

FireLane

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #576 on: January 02, 2019, 12:05:12 PM »
On the other hand we are talking more about reducing to part-time at some point. I'd love to sweet talk my husband into doing that by Fall 2019 when our oldest starts school. I suspect something big will have to change by that point because our current life is unsustainable if we add one kiddo going to school to the mix.

If you can go part time, I definitely recommend it! I've been working 4-day weeks since July and it's been fantastic. It makes for significantly less stress and a better work-life balance, and because of marginal tax rates, it didn't even affect my take-home pay that much.

Has the current market dip made anyone's target date push out a touch?

So far, the market dip hasn't changed my plans. Of course, it depends on whether there's a recovery by 2020 (in which case, we 2020'ers have been gifted with a great buying opportunity!), or whether this dip becomes a prolonged slump. If that happens, I'm OK with working longer to ride it out.

ysette9

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #577 on: January 02, 2019, 01:23:43 PM »
I would love love love to go part-time. I think 20 hours/week would be perfect. However I just started at a new company so this isn’t the right time to request that. My husband on the other hand.... ;-)

DreamFIRE

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #578 on: January 02, 2019, 06:24:01 PM »
Sometimes I think the perfect sweet spot would be working 20 hours a week. I vacillate between wanting that for quality of life sooner versus pedal-to-the-metal save until we reach full FI.
For me, 24 hours over 3 consecutive days would be the sweet spot because that's the minimum for some of our benefits, including good affordable health insurance.  In fact, my original plan was to FIRE in June 2019 and attempt to go part time if was at all possible until the following spring for about 10 months of part time work, even if it meant fewer hours without health insurance.  2 or 3 days per week would have been good.  Due to developments at work regarding staffing and budgeting, I'm finding it less likely that I'll have an opportunity to stay on part time, but I don't really want to call it quits completely from the job and give notice in just 4 months from now, either.  So, now I'm thinking about working full time those additional 10 months, and then just pulling the plug completely in April 2020.  I take a lot of vacation days in July and August, so it would be more like 8 more months of full time.  I would still end up fully FIREd and non-working in April 2020 at the same time as my original plan, but this way is guaranteed without depending on a part time opportunity that might be there.  If I was really burnt out on my job like so many people seem to be, I would go ahead and FIRE in June regardless of PT opportunities, but I actually like my job pretty well, have my own office, plenty of flexibility, and I'm just not ready to throw in the towel completely yet.

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #579 on: January 03, 2019, 05:55:42 AM »
Still targeting 2020.  I'm mainly in a holding pattern, trying to reach the earliest date I can take my pension.  But a lot of life changes are coming my way and I'm not sure how it will impact my goals.  I have a new boss at work. Indications are that things will be much better with him at the helm.  Also, I will now be factoring in a life partner/spouse (who fully supports my retirement goals).  So my goal is still December 31, 2020, but I may decide to OMY if things are going well at work.

ysette9

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #580 on: January 03, 2019, 02:50:43 PM »
This thread inspired me to dig up some old numbers.

Dec 16: $1.463M
Dec 17: $1.663M
Dec 18: $1.789M

tooqk4u22

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #581 on: January 04, 2019, 10:50:00 AM »
This thread inspired me to dig up some old numbers.

Dec 16: $1.463M
Dec 17: $1.663M
Dec 18: $1.789M

Wow - up 22% in 3 days when everybody got hammered last month. 


Haha - JK I know its year ends. 

ysette9

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #582 on: January 04, 2019, 11:07:44 AM »
Well, you know, I follow the amazing investing advice of our thorstash who can call market tops, so I know when to jump out and put all of my money in bitcoin and Beenie babies. :)

(Ref: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/)

Rubyvroom

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #583 on: January 04, 2019, 12:43:30 PM »
Dec 2016 - 25.0% (53% YTD savings rate)
Jan 2017 - 26.2% (56% savings rate)
Feb 2017 - 27.7% (60% savings rate)
Mar 2017 - 29.1% (77% savings rate)
65.4% Q1 Savings Rate
Apr 2017 - 30.7% (71% savings rate)
May 2017 - 31.8% (59% savings rate)
Jun 2017 - 33.0% (55% savings rate)
63.0% Q2 Savings Rate
Jul 2017 - 34.4% (60% savings rate)
Aug 2017 - 35.5% (61% savings rate)
Sep 2017 - 37.0% (60% savings rate)
60.6% Q3 Savings Rate
Oct 2017 - 38.6% (71% savings rate)
Nov 2017 - 40.5% (69% savings rate)
Dec 2017 - 41.6% (62% savings rate)
67.2% Q4 Savings Rate
63.8% 2017 YTD Savings Rate

Jan 2018 - 44.7% (75% savings rate)
Feb 2018 - 44.3% (74% savings rate)
Mar 2018 - 44.7% (70% savings rate)
72.9% Q1 Savings Rate

I pretty much dropped off on my updates because we bought land in May and I didn't like seeing the unfavorable hit to our numbers so I just avoided it. But it's LAND though and we love it and we plan to live there someday, so screw it, here are the numbers.

Apr 2018 - 45.1% (66% savings rate)
May 2018 - 34.6% (63% savings rate) nooooooooooo
Jun 2018 - 35.8% (71% savings rate)
66.5% Q2 Savings Rate
Jul 2018 - 37.2% (50% savings rate)
Aug 2018 - 39.6% (62% savings rate)
Sep 2018 - 40.5% (48% savings rate)
54.4% Q3 Savings Rate
Oct 2018 - 38.1% (49% savings rate)
Nov 2018 - 39.6% (34% savings rate)
Dec 2018 - 37.4% (81% savings rate)
54.1% Q4 Savings Rate
61.3% 2018 YTD Savings Rate

So while we made negative progress from a % to target stash perspective, our net worth (including land equity) increased by a healthy margin. I also think that I'll need to re-forecast our target stash at some point because my previous estimate included a mortgage payment, and with this land purchase and our eventual plan to build a home on it, the mortgage payment will of course go away. I don't want to move the goal posts yet however because that makes it more difficult to track historical progress, and frankly anything could happen between now and FIRE.

My SO plans to soft-retire in October 2019, meaning, he'll leave his stress-inducing job and begin "career-lite" for the year before I retire, which will free up time for him to start coordinating our new home build and the sale of our current home. He's literally counting down the days... like multiple times a day. It's not uncommon to hear him asking Siri, "How many days until _____?" Hmm... "How many WORKING days until _____?" Lol.

I'm looking forward to seeing the names slowly CONFIRMED on the 2019 cohort list, knowing we are getting that much closer to our own. :)

Rcc

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #584 on: January 06, 2019, 06:21:16 AM »
Still planning on May 2020 here as well.

Had a couple of unplanned expenses in DEC, but not painful. DS needed a tonsillectomy, and DW and I recarpeted our upstairs and tiled our bathrooms. (Knock on wood this completes the home improvement list we started ticking boxes on.. 6 years ago😀)

Second half of last year I shifted my actions towards aspects of FIRE that I couldn’t really give time to until now. Example: what happens when I hit the target? OMY? Wait for lay off? Chatted with wife on these topics for her input. Our DS will still be in college, so that’s a big influence for her.

So from an action stand point, two things. 1st - working towards a sufficient education so I might pivot between now and 2020 to a career shift to working on a CRM platform in either PT, FT, or contract role (or at least have the choice to), and 2nd working on a few simple health goals so I’m in my best shape ever for 2020.

So, pretty much rolling with the plan.

desk_jockey

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #585 on: January 06, 2019, 09:33:20 AM »
Still keeping one foot in the class of 2020.   NW excluding principle residence (briefly) approached our target when I looked at the calculations at the end of 3Q2018 but by year end calc had fallen a fair bit below.   Aside from a significant drop in the market we should be financially ready to leap by the end of 2020, but there are other factors besides target NW that for now have my expected FIRE date range as 2020 to 2022.       

meatgrinder

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #586 on: January 07, 2019, 12:56:53 PM »
Still keeping one foot in the class of 2020.   NW excluding principle residence (briefly) approached our target when I looked at the calculations at the end of 3Q2018 but by year end calc had fallen a fair bit below.   Aside from a significant drop in the market we should be financially ready to leap by the end of 2020, but there are other factors besides target NW that for now have my expected FIRE date range as 2020 to 2022.     

In the exact same boat. What are your plans post fire? (sorry if already posted)

desk_jockey

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #587 on: January 07, 2019, 11:08:17 PM »
Still keeping one foot in the class of 2020.   NW excluding principle residence (briefly) approached our target when I looked at the calculations at the end of 3Q2018 but by year end calc had fallen a fair bit below.   Aside from a significant drop in the market we should be financially ready to leap by the end of 2020, but there are other factors besides target NW that for now have my expected FIRE date range as 2020 to 2022.     

In the exact same boat. What are your plans post fire? (sorry if already posted)

That could be a factor in my delay to pull the trigger in 2020, as I don’t yet have coherent plans.   There are scattered ideas, things on the bucket list, interests that I’ve let slip to revisit, etc., but nothing organized.   I will probably ass the couch for a month to start the recovery, then figure out what’s next.  Better attention to health, long walks in the woods, catching up on the to-do list and a few vacation trips will probably see me through quite a few months.   I’ll be one of the folks that believes they’ve decompressed after 3 months, then thinks they’ve decompressed after 6 months, and then realizes as they approach a year that they’ve finally decompressed.   

After a year or two I’ll return to some form of work or volunteering, but on a part-time or seasonal contract basis.    I’ve always liked listening to stories from the old guys that had held an eclectic variety of jobs over the years.  I figure I need at least a dozen more different jobs before old-age retiring. 

What are your plans?   

Bateaux

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #588 on: January 09, 2019, 09:03:11 AM »
In a way I'm going to partly FIRE in 2019.  Half-Assed planning to start hiking the AT this November/December.   I may use a month of vacation to start the trail in Georgia this Fall.  Then use another month of vacation to get back on the trail early spring.  FIRE in August and head south from Maine to meet back up with where I stopped in the south.  I have 616 hours of paid time off to use between now and August 2020.  Using the time off in the calculations, I have 234 x 12 hour shifts till FIRE.  With two months of hiking and another two months of other vacations till August 2020 it doesn't seem so bad to OMY from the class of 2019.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2019, 09:05:52 AM by Bateaux »

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #589 on: January 10, 2019, 09:13:22 AM »
I have one foot in the 2019 thread and one in here.

It looks like I might be able to pull off a LoA in summer/fall of 2019. We are still sitting at a 7% WR, so some paid work is imminent. We're taking off for a round the world trip in June of 2020, for 9-12 months.

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #590 on: January 16, 2019, 12:54:03 AM »
I have one foot in the 2019 thread and one in here.

It looks like I might be able to pull off a LoA in summer/fall of 2019. We are still sitting at a 7% WR, so some paid work is imminent. We're taking off for a round the world trip in June of 2020, for 9-12 months.

I also have a foot planted in both threads, but it looks like I have my weight firmly planted on my 2020 foot now.
For some years I have been the big spreadsheet master in our household, with complicated calculations of all FIRE aspects, having side-gigs, old age pensions etc. I have occasionally discussed it with DH, but he has never felt ownership of it. Our FIRE status was something I just told him.
Last night we discussed my newer, simplified spreadsheet. DH played a lot with the parameters, putting in some worst case scenarios and some windfalls. DH slept on it and told me this morning that his conclusion is that our 2019 FIRE plan is very lean, maybe too lean. The plan requires a very high price for the house and no unexpected extra big costs in the future. We are driving a 10 year old car that at some point will need to be replaced. We are almost depending on receiving an inheritance in 10 years or so, although you can never fully count on that.
We might have to OMY it and maybe even cancel the planned house sale (that we haven't committed to yet) for this year.

One thing we could do to increase our current incomes with 25% is going back to working 100% again. But we both really enjoy having the Fridays off.

One of the reasons for this leanness is of course that in 2018, our FIRE stash hasn't grown. We saved 70% of our net home pay, but it all went into the stock market where it just compensated for the market downturn. Otherwise we could have increased our stash with maybe $50K, which is about a year's spending.

RedefinedHappiness

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #591 on: January 16, 2019, 05:38:05 AM »
I have one foot in the 2019 thread and one in here.

It looks like I might be able to pull off a LoA in summer/fall of 2019. We are still sitting at a 7% WR, so some paid work is imminent. We're taking off for a round the world trip in June of 2020, for 9-12 months.

I also have a foot planted in both threads, but it looks like I have my weight firmly planted on my 2020 foot now.
For some years I have been the big spreadsheet master in our household, with complicated calculations of all FIRE aspects, having side-gigs, old age pensions etc. I have occasionally discussed it with DH, but he has never felt ownership of it. Our FIRE status was something I just told him.
Last night we discussed my newer, simplified spreadsheet. DH played a lot with the parameters, putting in some worst case scenarios and some windfalls. DH slept on it and told me this morning that his conclusion is that our 2019 FIRE plan is very lean, maybe too lean. The plan requires a very high price for the house and no unexpected extra big costs in the future. We are driving a 10 year old car that at some point will need to be replaced. We are almost depending on receiving an inheritance in 10 years or so, although you can never fully count on that.
We might have to OMY it and maybe even cancel the planned house sale (that we haven't committed to yet) for this year.

One thing we could do to increase our current incomes with 25% is going back to working 100% again. But we both really enjoy having the Fridays off.

One of the reasons for this leanness is of course that in 2018, our FIRE stash hasn't grown. We saved 70% of our net home pay, but it all went into the stock market where it just compensated for the market downturn. Otherwise we could have increased our stash with maybe $50K, which is about a year's spending.

Linda - congratulations on what I interpret to be a level headed decision made by both partners together.  You might be bummed about having one foot firmly planted in 2020, but based on your partner's rationale, it sounds like the right decision.

Lews Therin

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #592 on: January 16, 2019, 06:03:08 AM »

I also have a foot planted in both threads, but it looks like I have my weight firmly planted on my 2020 foot now.
---
Snip
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Is the option of making money in the future accounted for in your plan? or even going down to even more part-time? Just because you are on the edge, doesn't mean you have to continue to have 80% work.

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #593 on: January 16, 2019, 01:36:14 PM »

I also have a foot planted in both threads, but it looks like I have my weight firmly planted on my 2020 foot now.
---
Snip
---


Is the option of making money in the future accounted for in your plan? or even going down to even more part-time? Just because you are on the edge, doesn't mean you have to continue to have 80% work.

Not really, as we don't want to have to rely too much on working side-gigs. DH could do parts of his present job as a consultant, or occasional hours emplyee. But we don't want to rely too much on that. The gap to an acceptable FIRE is just too big today. If we FIRE next year, we might still occasionally need to work a bit to provide an extra income for a big trip or so.

Once I did a calculator found on this site that showed your chances for succeed in FIRE versus death versus going broke. That calculator showed me a 50% chance of going broke. That is a very high risk. So we want to reduce this a bit. I now support my husband in this, because I want us to succeed together.

Working 80% hours costs 20% of our brutto income, 15% of our nett income. That means that for evey year that we work, we need to work 1,5 to 2 months longer to compensate for the loss. We just decided that it is worth it. Fridays off are great and good for our physical and mental health. We both needed stress reduction. So we keep them. I guess I tolerate a few months extra work.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2019, 01:41:03 PM by Linda_Norway »

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #594 on: January 17, 2019, 06:27:54 AM »
This thread has no list yet. I tried to make one by starting at the first page of the thread. But those posts are very old and many names might no longer be relevant. So I ended up making a list of the users who posted something on the last 2 pages of the thread. Please update the list if you want to correct it.
When we get the list a bit more correct and we approach 2020, we can sort it by date when the time comes. For the moment it is sorted on user name.

2020 cohort members:

??/2020     apurplelife   
08/2020     Bateaux
12/2020     BFGirl
06/2020     2Birds1Stone
??/2020     BlueMR2   
??/2020     catccc   
12/2020     david_shin
12/202?     desk_jockey
04/2020     DreamFIRE
??/2020     FIREby2021
??/2020     FireLane
??/2020     Freedomin5   
??/202?     Gumption
06/2020     ixtap
??/2020     letsdoit   
10/2020     Linda_Norway
??/202?     Maenad
21/20??     markbike528CBX
12/202?     meatgrinder
12/2020     MoneyTree
??/2020     onlykelsey   
04/2020     Pennycounter
03/2020     rab-bit
05/2020     Rcc
??/2020     RedefinedHappiness   
??/202?     robtown
03/2020     Rubyvroom
04/2020     TheContinaltalOp
??/2020     tooqk4u22   
??/2020     Unique User   
??/202?     ysette9
« Last Edit: January 17, 2019, 07:14:00 AM by Linda_Norway »

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #595 on: January 17, 2019, 07:05:57 AM »
6/1/2020 for our 9 month honeymoon!

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #596 on: January 17, 2019, 07:08:28 AM »
6/1/2020 for our 9 month honeymoon!

Congrats.
And after the honeymoon? RE or back to some kind of working life?

Lews Therin

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #597 on: January 17, 2019, 07:11:38 AM »
07/2020     Lews Therin

Imagine me loudly hissing at you, like a cat, tiger or giant alien monster from outer-space.

No way I'm in this cohort.

2019 FOR LIFE!

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #598 on: January 17, 2019, 07:15:25 AM »
07/2020     Lews Therin

Imagine me loudly hissing at you, like a cat, tiger or giant alien monster from outer-space.

No way I'm in this cohort.

2019 FOR LIFE!

No need to become aggressive. I have changed it.
I got the number from somewhere earlier in the thread where you talked about being done with the military on a certain date.

Lews Therin

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #599 on: January 17, 2019, 07:24:36 AM »
Yes, my agressiveness is through hisses.

(It was joking!, I was 2020, but got down lower! OLY!)