Author Topic: 2020 FIRE Cohort  (Read 117703 times)

MoneyTree

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #500 on: August 09, 2018, 06:36:54 PM »
Hoping to be a part of this cohort, but it seems like the finish line is moving further away as I get closer to it. Does anyone else feel that way?

Just passed 900K in various accounts, about 700k of that is in Taxable. We rent, so zero in Home Equity.
Expenses are ~45K.

Reason I say finish line is moving further away is that we are expecting our first child this December! So our expenses are gonna go up and we are going to lose my wife's income at the same time. She might go back to work eventually, but in a very limited capacity.

All of this will slow us down in terms of FIRE, and will probably push us into the 2021 cohort, but I'm still hoping to make it in 2020 with you guys!

TheContinentalOp

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #501 on: August 28, 2018, 11:03:53 AM »
I hit my walkway-on-my-terms number. Still 18 months out from my planned FIRE date.

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #502 on: September 03, 2018, 06:42:54 PM »
August 2018 highlights:

- Despite the heat & humidity, it was a really nice month.  I'm now an uncle (!!), football season is now upon us, I celebrated a "milestone" birthday (39*, ah-hem), experienced travel to a new country (India), and we met all of our savings goals!

- The trip to India was for business, and despite jet-lag, was a lot of fun ... I hope to return later this year.  We are about to enter a season with some domestic travel to see extended family, as well as an October trip back to visit friends at our FUTURE FIRE location.  I have a feeling the last 4 months of 2018 are going to FLY by!

- Regarding my eating & exercise program this year, I've kept the 11 pound weight loss off, and am feeling great.  My commitment to the program helps reinforce the work-life balance I enjoy, and most weeks I target 2x yoga classes and 3-4 weight training / higher intensity sessions.  Sustainable is the name of the game for me ... in our future FIRE location I hope to enjoy so much more outdoors, but this is fine for now.

- Our ideal countdown target is now @ 19 months (what!!!)  Our old (original) target is still out there at 34 months (Jul-2021).


EOY 2015: 56.2%
EOY 2016: 70.6%
EOY 2017: 78.6%

JAN 2018:  78.8%
FEB 2018:  77.3%
MAR 2018: 77.6%
APR 2018:  80.3%
MAY 2018:  81.9%
JUN 2018:  83.3%
JUL 2018:  83.9%
AUG 2018: 84.4%

FIREby2021

onlykelsey

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #503 on: September 04, 2018, 07:16:23 AM »
Now that we have critical mass in this post, I thought it would be interesting to hear how everyone was dealing with 2016, given we are four years from FIRE.

I will start. I feel helpless. This is good news because I don't think I can screw up my timeline. But bad news because in the past I have been able to take action to accelerate the timeline. Now I think I am as efficient as I'm willing to go.

So now I sit and I wait. Perhaps since I can't impact my financial situation, I should be working on the emotional change that I will soon experience. Four years seems so far away.

I'm not sure I follow your question.  Do you mean the turbulence in the markets in 2016?  The S&P 500 is about where it was when the year started, no?  That doesn't seem so bad.

As for your other questions, 2020 is a very soft timeline for me at this point, so I don't think I'm really thinking about the emotional changes.  I'm hoping to have two kids by then, which will probably drastically alter my life and perhaps my timeline.  That's okay.  I'm 29 and don't need to rush too much.

For me, my big question is how long I stick it out in my brutal, on call 24 hours a day, come back from your family funeral early job.  If I'm on more of a 2022 or 2024 schedule, it probably makes sense to look for a more  humane job for the interim.  if I really want to accelerate my plans and deal with the pain, maybe I should stick it out at this one for so long as they'll have me.

To risk sounding like a therapist, my question was...how does this make you feel?

We all have something in common with our expected FIRE date, so I expect we will be having similar issues, thoughts, fears, excitement, etc.
Responding to this post two years later (ha!).  I am still in that job, and now have a 1.5 year old.  Still struggling with the same question.

I invested about as much as I predicted (although my NW went up by a lot more as well as I paid down debt and my apartment went up in value).  My marriage is in shambles (for unrelated reasons), so now in addition to the job question, I spend a lot of time on the "do I stay or do I go" question, as well.   There are at least four outcomes: Leave him, leave job; leave him, keep job; keep him, leave job; leave him, leave job.  I'm not sure which decision to make first. 

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #504 on: September 04, 2018, 03:57:34 PM »
I spend a lot of time on the "do I stay or do I go" question, as well.   There are at least four outcomes: Leave him, leave job; leave him, keep job; keep him, leave job; leave him, leave job.  I'm not sure which decision to make first. 

It's best to rip off a bandaid swiftly.

onlykelsey

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #505 on: September 04, 2018, 04:03:37 PM »
I spend a lot of time on the "do I stay or do I go" question, as well.   There are at least four outcomes: Leave him, leave job; leave him, keep job; keep him, leave job; leave him, leave job.  I'm not sure which decision to make first. 

It's best to rip off a bandaid swiftly.

But which bandaid first?  Upending my career and family at once seems ill-advised, ha.

Pennycounter

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #506 on: September 04, 2018, 04:16:18 PM »
I spend a lot of time on the "do I stay or do I go" question, as well.   There are at least four outcomes: Leave him, leave job; leave him, keep job; keep him, leave job; leave him, leave job.  I'm not sure which decision to make first. 

It's best to rip off a bandaid swiftly.

But which bandaid first?  Upending my career and family at once seems ill-advised, ha.

I mean, not that I know anything about your situation but work stress and having a 1.5 year old def weighs on a marriage.  I would ditch the job first and see if your stress levels impact your quality of life.  I know for me, this is HUGE and one of my prime drivers for RE. I am a different person when I have to work this job...

FInding_peace

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #507 on: September 05, 2018, 09:40:19 PM »
Hey onlykelsey, I'll +1 the comment about work stress potentially affecting the quality of your relationship right now.  I used to be an academic and I noticed an eerie pattern where I would always argue with my SO a lot more towards the hectic end of the semester, and we would always get along great in the summer.  I didn't think I was any different during those two times, but the pattern reoccurred so consistently, that I eventually concluded that clearly I was.   

It's easy to be blind to our own irritability under stress.  We live with it all day and so become used to it.  We can also start to become emotionally absent with our SOs without even noticing it, causing stress in them that can then lead to all sorts of undesirable cold, angry, clingy, or desperate behavior. 

I found that when I quit academia, I immediately became much calmer, more patient, and more present for the people in my life.  Whatever else is going on, those kinds of changes can only help your relationship. 

Absolutely leave the job first. 

catccc

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #508 on: September 14, 2018, 03:18:40 PM »
Hesitantly joining.  I'd love to be done by 2020, but I'm not sure if we'll hit our number by then, if I'll really be ready to pull the plug, or what.  We just crossed $1M in NW, but I should point out that maybe $95K is 529s, so that's not really part of our stash.  No real estate, for better or worse, we are renters.

I have been feeling extremely unmotivated and disliking work, and naturally that means I spend more time daydreaming about FIRE...

I just turned 39 last month, so if I can manage to pull the plug before August of 2020, I'll still be 40 when I retire.  A nice round number.

At the end of this year, I will have put 15 years into my working life (did undergrad for 5.5 years, was a SAHM mom for a year).   At the end of 2020, it will be 17 years of work.

Eager to see everyone get there, even if I don't!  Go team!

BlueMR2

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #509 on: September 16, 2018, 03:32:19 PM »
I still like what I do, but I'm also wishing my FIRE date was here.  Low unemployment is going to kill me.  We're running at only 75% the people in our department right now as compared to last year.  Job postings sit for months without getting a single response.  So swamped with work I can barely function some days.

Gumption

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #510 on: September 20, 2018, 10:23:02 AM »
With around two years to go until FIRE, how have you all adjusted your paths to accommodate?
I realize that this kinda depends on your age and what bucket you will be taking your funds out of.

I am realizing lately that I am still in the mode of dropping as much money into tax deferred accounts as I can, when in reality, I wont be able to access them for 20 years. In reality, I should have stopped putting money into my 401k years ago and used these funds for the years before I can access the tax deferred accounts.

Partly this is out of fear of pulling the trigger on FIRE, I know.

What i am trying to say here is that if I am indeed part of the 2020 cohort, I should be adjusting my plan here. After years of saving everything at all costs and putting priority into tax deferred, I need to act differently.

Thoughts?

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #511 on: September 20, 2018, 11:34:57 AM »
With around two years to go until FIRE, how have you all adjusted your paths to accommodate?

Thoughts?

Interesting thoughts.  I think there have been a few shifts we've been making over past 18 months or so:

1) Aggressively adding to the after-tax stash pile.  We were similar in that historically we maximized pre-tax & paying off (mortgage) debts, but we have become increasingly aggressive in building the after-tax funds to enable flexibility.

2) Proactively went ahead and made "the housing move".  We sold our HCOL home here (Feb 2018) for above & beyond expectations, and moved into a below-market rate rental owned by a good friend.  Back of the napkin cash flow savings is $40k annually (!!), plus we've accomplished the downsize.  Our future "MCOL" home has a long-term renter (Mar 2018) that largely covers carrying costs through Q4-2019.

3) Laying groundwork for flexibility within our future endeavors.  We are evaluating education & experiences inline with our core values and skills to equip ourselves to move into things more in line with our interests & passions.  I'm laying the groundwork to potentially position myself for flexible and/or remote work arrangements heading into 2019/2020.  Keeping options open and creating new ones will be helpful as we plan.

4) Something we haven't yet done is investigate our healthcare strategy.  It's in the FIRE budget, but carries the most uncertainty.  Need to do!

FIREby2021

TempusFugit

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #512 on: September 20, 2018, 11:51:10 AM »
With around two years to go until FIRE, how have you all adjusted your paths to accommodate?
I realize that this kinda depends on your age and what bucket you will be taking your funds out of.

I am realizing lately that I am still in the mode of dropping as much money into tax deferred accounts as I can, when in reality, I wont be able to access them for 20 years. In reality, I should have stopped putting money into my 401k years ago and used these funds for the years before I can access the tax deferred accounts.

Partly this is out of fear of pulling the trigger on FIRE, I know.

What i am trying to say here is that if I am indeed part of the 2020 cohort, I should be adjusting my plan here. After years of saving everything at all costs and putting priority into tax deferred, I need to act differently.

Thoughts?

Im in the 2022 cohort but i try to keep up with the the other close cohorts to see just this sort of question and responses. 

Ive been looking at my own arrangement of tax-deferred vs post tax compared with my expected spending after RE.   

While there is plenty of information about how to access tax-deferred funds before 59-1/2, some of those require advance planning.   The Roth ladder is a five year head start program, so folks need to be thinking about how to bridge any gap between leaving work and accessing those funds. 

I think most retirement plans through an employer (e g 401k) are locked up until you leave that employer, so you can't begin the roth ladder until you actually quit- meaning you cant convert any of those funds to the traditional IRA then Roth format per the program.  That leaves a 5 year gap to cover.  I am not an expert, so i have to do more research on this topic, but i think that means i will need 5 years of spending in post tax accounts.

Ive currently got something like 3 years worth, so i'll have to track that as my date approaches. 

There are other options for accessing retirement account funds without incurring the penalty (subtantially equal payments), but they require some planning because yu can get locked into a number that doesnt work for you.


markbike528CBX

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #513 on: September 20, 2018, 12:57:40 PM »

I am realizing lately that I am still in the mode of dropping as much money into tax deferred accounts as I can, when in reality, I wont be able to access them for 20 years. In reality, I should have stopped putting money into my 401k years ago and used these funds for the years before I can access the tax deferred accounts.

Partly this is out of fear of pulling the trigger on FIRE, I know.

What i am trying to say here is that if I am indeed part of the 2020 cohort, I should be adjusting my plan here. After years of saving everything at all costs and putting priority into tax deferred, I need to act differently.
You CAN access tax deferred prior to 59.5 as 72(t) / SEPP.

I'd agree you should prioritize post tax savings, specifically, mutual funds that give Qualified capital gains and dividends, as these are taxed at 0% for mustachian incomes/spending. Get whatever match/tax reduction makes sense to you, and start post-tax post-haste.

Interest bearing stuff is less useful.

catccc

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #514 on: September 20, 2018, 04:15:12 PM »
We recently gained access to a 457, so in addition to our Roth contributions, those amounts will be easily accessible once DH separates from his employer.  I suppose people in this cohort should be seeding their Roth pipelines soon.  Although we (collective 2020 cohort) are less than 5 years out from FIRE, many of us probably have incomes that make converting at this time illogical.  We (DH and I)are definitely still in the mindset of reducing taxable income and maximizing shelters at this time.  As of this year, between DH and I, we have $158K in Roth contributions, plus an $80K conversion from a year we had unusually low income. Plus taxable investments of $203K.  So that's a total of $441K, or 7.35 years of expenses assuming our spend stays near current levels, $60K/year.  (Last year was actually just over $56K, but 2016 was $58K and 2015 was just shy of $60K... it's a work in progress).

This is the first time I'm actually thinking about logistics around drawdown, so this is a fun post for me.  Glad to see we are in good shape with enough accessible funds.  But I definitely need to think more about taxes and maximizing our annual allotment of tax free income.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2018, 05:36:52 AM by catccc »

ixtap

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #515 on: September 20, 2018, 04:25:56 PM »
Don't forget that if you have access to mega backdoor Roth, you have another way of building up your bridge fund. It doesn't necessarily have to be in taxable to have easy access prior to 59.5.

Bateaux

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #516 on: September 20, 2018, 06:36:28 PM »
Since we're wanting Fat-Fire we're almost certainly extending to 2020.  I'm really not mentally prepared anymore anyway.   It's about more than the money we've saved. We've got things to wait out.

catccc

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #517 on: September 21, 2018, 05:38:20 AM »
@Bateaux what does fat fire mean for you? (Aka, whatís your target # and drawdown rate?)

Bateaux

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #518 on: September 21, 2018, 07:11:29 AM »
@Bateaux what does fat fire mean for you? (Aka, whatís your target # and drawdown rate?)

Since we've crested 2 million in investment worth and considering the 4% rule that would provide 80K right now.  We just bought another home in Florida and have a mortgage of 190K on it.   Our current home in Louisiana is paid off and it's sale would easily cover the Florida mortgage as well as give us some cash.  The 190k  mortgage is our only debt. 
If we pay off the mortgage by selling our current home we can probably live pretty good on a 2% withdrawal or 40k annually.   40k with no debt and grown kids is pretty Fat Fire.  We'll have the ability to ramp spending when needed.  My reason for continuing to work is for health care.   I currently have a great employer plan and continue to cover my young adult children.   Since I'm expecting health care to cost us 20 to 25 thousand a year eventually I'm allocating 500k of our stash just to service that cost.  So to summarize I plan to spend 40k annually outside of health care. Which are the expenses I can control.

Gumption

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #519 on: September 21, 2018, 07:43:44 AM »
Ill have to check out the 72(t) / SEPP information.
My 401k is with Vanguard and they don't offer the mega backdoor Roth option.
The 5 year Roth laddering only seems to apply if your income is below a certain threshold (like if you are no longer working anymore)

Ill work a little post 2020 (perhaps ~10hrs a week) -- just enough to cover expenses and not dip into savings . I would only do this for another 4-5 years though. Kids will still be in the house at this point, so I feel like keeping at least a minimal connection to my consulting pipeline would allow me to sleep easier at night.

I suppose there are three options for those of us at this stage:

1) Just keep working and socking as much away as you can. (Outwardly I am all about FIRE, inwardly I am frightened to jump into the abyss, so Ill continue to do the life of "quiet desperation" thing)

2) Downshift to working a lot less --  just enough to cover expenses and not dip into savings (I am too scared to FIRE, but I'll dip my toe in!)

3) Pull the plug and go FIRE. (This is the whole idea behind MMM after all, right?)

I know I am being simplistic, but I think the general idea still applies.




TempusFugit

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #520 on: September 21, 2018, 07:51:22 AM »
Ill have to check out the 72(t) / SEPP information.
My 401k is with Vanguard and they don't offer the mega backdoor Roth option.
The 5 year Roth laddering only seems to apply if your income is below a certain threshold (like if you are no longer working anymore)


Depends on what you mean here.  The Roth ladder (or pipeline) works regardless of your income, it's just that until you actually separate from your employer, you may not be able to start the conversion process from any employer sponsored retirement plan, since you would be converting some portion of your 401k (an amount equal to a year of spending) into a traditional IRA and then into a Roth (and paying the taxes on that amount). Then you let it sit in that Roth for 5 years before you withdraw it to spend.

The tax part (when you convert) is perhaps where you are thinking about income, as your tax rate would be 0% if your yearly income is less than 37.5K (single filer). 

Mad Fientist does a much better job of explaining it.

https://www.madfientist.com/how-to-access-retirement-funds-early/

Gumption

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #521 on: September 21, 2018, 10:13:55 AM »
Thanks. Yes it comes down to that conversion period and being under a certain income threshold. So for those of us to still plan on working at least a little, its a bit hard to figure in a Roth ladder strategy.

I'd love to see some real life stories on this. Seems like there would be some 2020ers out there who are already in the process of doing the ladder.

ixtap

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #522 on: September 23, 2018, 10:06:15 AM »
Our plans are in flux, but DH's new mantra is "Just 20 more months." His RSUs vest in May and our current lease is up in June 2020.

We are right at our original FIRE number now, but realize we might want a few more luxuries as we age. As many have noted, it is hard to stop when your monthly savings dwarfs what you can hope for in another career.

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #523 on: September 23, 2018, 12:37:13 PM »
I am now officially aiming to FIRE in 2019, given that the house market doesn't crash in the next 3/4 year.

Freedomin5

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #524 on: September 24, 2018, 04:54:53 AM »
With around two years to go until FIRE, how have you all adjusted your paths to accommodate?
I realize that this kinda depends on your age and what bucket you will be taking your funds out of.

[snip]

Thoughts?

Good question. I actually never really thought about this until you brought it up.

Iím planning to FIRE, but DH wants to keep working. Right now, we continue to throw money into after-tax investment accounts (our situation is a bit weird in that we cannot contribute to tax-deferred accounts). So I donít think much will change except that our savings/investments amount will be lower after I FIRE. If DH also wants to FIRE too, approx. six months before his FIRE date, we will have to divert incoming funds to create a 2-3 year cash buffer. That way, we wonít have to draw down investments in case of a market crash.

We are also planning to move back to our home country after we FIRE, so we would like to purchase a small home in a LCOL/MCOL area before moving back or shortly after moving back so we can get a mortgage, while we still have a relatively high reported income, because once we both FIRE, we are going to look like unemployed bums on paper.

But for right now, I donít think there is much I need to think about, unless Iím missing something.

catccc

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #525 on: September 24, 2018, 08:44:17 AM »
@Bateaux what does fat fire mean for you? (Aka, whatís your target # and drawdown rate?)

Since we've crested 2 million in investment worth and considering the 4% rule that would provide 80K right now.  We just bought another home in Florida and have a mortgage of 190K on it.   Our current home in Louisiana is paid off and it's sale would easily cover the Florida mortgage as well as give us some cash.  The 190k  mortgage is our only debt. 
If we pay off the mortgage by selling our current home we can probably live pretty good on a 2% withdrawal or 40k annually.   40k with no debt and grown kids is pretty Fat Fire.  We'll have the ability to ramp spending when needed.  My reason for continuing to work is for health care.   I currently have a great employer plan and continue to cover my young adult children.   Since I'm expecting health care to cost us 20 to 25 thousand a year eventually I'm allocating 500k of our stash just to service that cost.  So to summarize I plan to spend 40k annually outside of health care. Which are the expenses I can control.

Interesting, I always thought of "fat fire" as spending more and needing more, but never thought about it as a lower withdrawal rate!  I like that approach.  And good for you for tackling the reality of potential health care costs...  I have to admit my head is kind of in the sand on that one, still.  I will tackle it, I guess I've just never felt close enough to pulling the trigger to plan for it.  But you are in a great mindset!  Rock on!

catccc

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #526 on: September 24, 2018, 08:45:18 AM »
I am now officially aiming to FIRE in 2019, given that the house market doesn't crash in the next 3/4 year.

Congrats!!!

RedefinedHappiness

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #527 on: September 24, 2018, 11:15:29 AM »
With around two years to go until FIRE, how have you all adjusted your paths to accommodate?
I realize that this kinda depends on your age and what bucket you will be taking your funds out of.

I am realizing lately that I am still in the mode of dropping as much money into tax deferred accounts as I can, when in reality, I wont be able to access them for 20 years. In reality, I should have stopped putting money into my 401k years ago and used these funds for the years before I can access the tax deferred accounts.

Partly this is out of fear of pulling the trigger on FIRE, I know.

What i am trying to say here is that if I am indeed part of the 2020 cohort, I should be adjusting my plan here. After years of saving everything at all costs and putting priority into tax deferred, I need to act differently.

Thoughts?

My next two years:

1) stay the course investing/saving
2) continue to track spending to ensure it is stable and relatively predictable for future
3) research Health care options. Work currently provides, so in order to fund, I would need to continue to pay out of pocket expenses PLUS premiums for a similar plan for a family of four. I don't want to have to count on ACA subsidies, so looking at modeling cost on HC gov without subsidies.  Looking like about 1300/month.
4) run some tax modeling based on expected distribution strategy.
5) brainstorm any other large pitfalls
6) mentally prepare

meatgrinder

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #528 on: September 24, 2018, 11:31:13 AM »
I don't want to have to count on ACA subsidies

Why not?


david_shin

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #529 on: September 24, 2018, 11:37:26 AM »
Shooting for December 2020 at superleanFIRE but that's assuming nothing happens between now and then. No sabbatical, no cost of living increase, no job change / raise, etc...

But that's the goal! Want to go to Argentina in December 2020 as our first step into FIRE.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2018, 10:07:01 AM by david_shin »

RedefinedHappiness

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #530 on: September 24, 2018, 12:51:41 PM »
I don't want to have to count on ACA subsidies

Why not?

I am generally risk averse and I think there is too high of a probability that the ACA subsidies would go away or change dramatically in the next 5-10 years. Given the $ risk that this represents, I'm deciding to ignore the subsidies in my FIRE planning.

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #531 on: September 24, 2018, 01:07:00 PM »
I am now officially aiming to FIRE in 2019, given that the house market doesn't crash in the next 3/4 year.

Congrats!!!

Thanks. Is was due to two things.

1. The nett sales price for our clown house in my FIRE spreadsheet was very conservative. After getting an estimate from two real estate brokers, I have made the amount higher. This adds directly to the expected FIRE stash.

2. I corrected my FIRE spreadsheet with the fact that we currently have our stock in an account where we can sell stocks without paying tax on profits to a certain amount. This means that when we withdraw, we won't be paying taxes as long as we don't take out more than we put in. In later years, that is 14 years later, we will have to pay tax over all remaining that we will withdraw. This is referred tax that we can keep in the stock markey and gives us a sleightly lower FIRE amount.

So we didn't earn or save any more money, we just adjusted the numbers in a more profitable way. DH checked my numbers critically and has faith in them. :-)

catccc

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #532 on: September 25, 2018, 09:13:59 AM »
1. The net sales price for our clown house in my FIRE spreadsheet was very conservative. After getting an estimate from two real estate brokers, I have made the amount higher. This adds directly to the expected FIRE stash.

That's great!  So do you plan on selling the house when you FIRE, or will you somehow use the equity to fund RE?

meatgrinder

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #533 on: September 25, 2018, 09:31:12 AM »
1. The net sales price for our clown house in my FIRE spreadsheet was very conservative. After getting an estimate from two real estate brokers, I have made the amount higher. This adds directly to the expected FIRE stash.

That's great!  So do you plan on selling the house when you FIRE, or will you somehow use the equity to fund RE?

"Grabs Popcorn"  In the same boat here.  We live in a HCOL and have about 800K in home equity.  Would love to tap that and move to a LCOL but there are other factors at play such as small children in school and the wife. In fact, if we invested half of it we would be $100K over our fire number.

Lews Therin

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #534 on: September 25, 2018, 09:47:15 AM »

"Grabs Popcorn"  In the same boat here.  We live in a HCOL and have about 800K in home equity.  Would love to tap that and move to a LCOL but there are other factors at play such as small children in school and the wife. In fact, if we invested half of it we would be $100K over our fire number.

Then refinance? Pull that equity out?

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #535 on: September 25, 2018, 11:05:19 AM »
1. The net sales price for our clown house in my FIRE spreadsheet was very conservative. After getting an estimate from two real estate brokers, I have made the amount higher. This adds directly to the expected FIRE stash.

That's great!  So do you plan on selling the house when you FIRE, or will you somehow use the equity to fund RE?

We need to sell the house. Keep half the money apart for buying another house in the future. Invest the rest of the money to generate the 4% per year after inflation.

meatgrinder

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #536 on: September 25, 2018, 05:16:25 PM »

"Grabs Popcorn"  In the same boat here.  We live in a HCOL and have about 800K in home equity.  Would love to tap that and move to a LCOL but there are other factors at play such as small children in school and the wife. In fact, if we invested half of it we would be $100K over our fire number.

Then refinance? Pull that equity out?

Yes, but then spending goes up due to higher mortgage payment requiring higher savings.  I think what youre saying makes the most sense long term
« Last Edit: September 26, 2018, 03:24:43 PM by meatgrinder »

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #537 on: September 29, 2018, 03:34:00 PM »
September 2018 highlights:

- The oppressive heat has broken!  I am really looking forward to this time of year.  September was a solid month overall - we met our savings goals, and had some solid market performance to boot. 

- We took two long weekend trips to visit family members in September.  WV to meet my new niece (!!!) and had a wonderful weekend with my sister, family and bonding with little one.  We also went up to MN to visit wife's sister & had a great hang, enjoying the nice weather & outdoors.

- Still able to stay active with regular yoga and weight training each week.  Had a lot of success in the spring with Whole30, and am considering one more (similar) effort to get my (now) "old self" to where I'd really like to be ... shedding a few more pounds would be good for my back.

- Had an unexpected conversation with my boss about remote and/or flexible location work arrangements.  I honestly did not think this would EVER be an option at my MegaCorp.  That said, he was surprisingly open minded to discussing ideas, and has approval authority.  There are some ongoing / emerging needs with my aging parents that I would greatly appreciate working remotely to support, and I wonder if that could lead to a longer term remote arrangement that could 1) accelerate our move to our desired MCOL home and 2) pad the stash / retain healthcare benefits for an extra few years.  Definitely worth thinking about; we shall see.  As with other contingencies we could lean on, we are not including this in our plan.

- Our ideal countdown target is now @ 18 months (ok THAT sounds all too real now!).  Our old (original) target is out there at 33 months (Jul-2021).


EOY 2015: 56.2%
EOY 2016: 70.6%
EOY 2017: 78.6%

JAN 2018:  78.8%
FEB 2018:  77.3%
MAR 2018: 77.6%
APR 2018:  80.3%
MAY 2018:  81.9%
JUN 2018:  83.3%
JUL 2018:  83.9%
AUG 2018: 84.4%
SEP 2018:  86.5%

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #538 on: September 30, 2018, 11:48:27 AM »
Another expensive month behind us, this year has not gone according to plan.  All kinds of crazy expensive house and car breakdowns.  That said even though this one year has been ugly, we're well on track for our goals and I've actually started funding some hobbies again and doing minor house upgrades (think wall repairs, painting, etc, not anything silly like new cabinets) that I had chopped out to accelerate our savings in prior 3-4 years.

Starting to shift our savings approach.  "Rounded down" on the HSA and 401k during our system change this year instead of calculating the precise amount to max them out, puts more into the taxable to carry us over into when we can get into the retirement accounts.

The big worry is still healthcare.  No faith in ACA or whatever will replace it.  Budgeting for that is purely guesswork.  The current expensive plans would fit within our numbers, but who knows how much worse things could get?  12 years ago top notch health insurance was $62/mo.  I never would have believed anyone telling me that just over a decade later $900/mo would be the bargain barely covers anything insurance.

letsdoit

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #539 on: October 01, 2018, 08:34:10 AM »
agreed , if we as a group, figure out one thing on this board, it should be how to manage FI health care
I have no ideas, it sounds like a mess.

meatgrinder

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #540 on: October 01, 2018, 09:04:52 AM »
agreed , if we as a group, figure out one thing on this board, it should be how to manage FI health care
I have no ideas, it sounds like a mess.

Has anyone thought about rolling the dice and not getting health insurance?  Everyone in this thread will have a sizable stash where something like $100K-$200K in medical bills would be significant but not be crushing. If some people are paying $20K/year in insurance premiums then its worth considering self-funding.

Gumption

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #541 on: October 01, 2018, 10:13:50 AM »
I work for myself, so have a high deductible insurance. We have two kids and are paying $1500/mo. I just got the updated rate for next year, and it went down $80 to $1420.
I think if I make under $120k/yr (I need to double check that) we would be eligible for the ACA subsidies and those monthly costs would be cut in half.

I am hoping that when i get closer to FI and cut down on the work, that the ACA subsidies will help curb the costs of health insurance until we get to medicare. If not, we will have to cut costs in other areas.

We are young and pretty healthy, although we had a curve ball this year which, all totaled would have cost us ~$60,000 in various medical costs if we didn't have insurance.
This was for two minor surgeries. We ended up having to pay around $7,000 out of pocket for the medical costs associated with this incident.

We are all back to being healthy now, but if we didn't have insurance, that's a big chunk of change that would have set our FI date back a year if not more -- that $60k, when left in the savings account has compound interest after all.

I will never go without insurance. Things can and will happen to all of us at some point. To have to pay for the complete costs of these things individually, without insurance, is simply a stupid risk to take.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #542 on: October 06, 2018, 03:58:24 AM »
I'm going to cautiously move into the 2019 cohort.

The FI projection chart shows my blue and red line crossing in October of 2019, so I'll aim for November 1st.

This is all subject to change based on markets/income/job security, so I might be back here before the year is up lol.

Well, it looks like I called it =D

2020 it is.......looking like a 50/50 split between June 1 or Sept 1.

Just crossed 13x combined annual expenses.

meatgrinder

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #543 on: October 06, 2018, 02:47:30 PM »
I'm going to cautiously move into the 2019 cohort.

The FI projection chart shows my blue and red line crossing in October of 2019, so I'll aim for November 1st.

This is all subject to change based on markets/income/job security, so I might be back here before the year is up lol.

Well, it looks like I called it =D

2020 it is.......looking like a 50/50 split between June 1 or Sept 1.

Just crossed 13x combined annual expenses.

You're firing in two years?  Must have a lot of income coming in.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #544 on: October 07, 2018, 05:24:08 AM »
I'm going to cautiously move into the 2019 cohort.

The FI projection chart shows my blue and red line crossing in October of 2019, so I'll aim for November 1st.

This is all subject to change based on markets/income/job security, so I might be back here before the year is up lol.

Well, it looks like I called it =D

2020 it is.......looking like a 50/50 split between June 1 or Sept 1.

Just crossed 13x combined annual expenses.

You're firing in two years?  Must have a lot of income coming in.
We don't plan on waiting till 25x before dipping our toe in the water. Taking a year off then reevaluating whether seasonal/pt/ft work makes sense to bridge the gap.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


meatgrinder

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #545 on: October 11, 2018, 04:53:53 PM »
How much further does the market need to drop for you to get to the dreaded OMY or TMY!?!?

Could start a never ending chain reaction of 2019 bumping to 2020 etc.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 04:55:57 PM by meatgrinder »

ixtap

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #546 on: October 11, 2018, 05:14:37 PM »
How much further does the market need to drop for you to get to the dreaded OMY or TMY!?!?

Could start a never ending chain reaction of 2019 bumping to 2020 etc.

We already have a wait and see attitude. We re-evaluate every six months, with the right to be fed up in between.

For 2020 retirees, now is a great time for a correction, as the economy would likely be strong, or at least recovering, 18 months from now.

Bateaux

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #547 on: October 11, 2018, 07:24:46 PM »
How much further does the market need to drop for you to get to the dreaded OMY or TMY!?!?

Could start a never ending chain reaction of 2019 bumping to 2020 etc.

I'm a OMY from 2019 to 2020 largely because there has been no recession.  I'd like to see it right now.  I'm currently down 90K and the drop down is likely just getting started.   If need be I'll TMY to 2021.  The extreme is 2023.  I'll be 55 in 2023 and I'd say that's the last birthday I could claim early retirement.

markbike528CBX

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #548 on: October 11, 2018, 09:46:36 PM »
How much further does the market need to drop for you to get to the dreaded OMY or TMY!?!?

Could start a never ending chain reaction of 2019 bumping to 2020 etc.

I'm a OMY from 2019 to 2020 largely because there has been no recession. I'd like to see it right now.   I'm currently down 90K and the drop down is likely just getting started.   If need be I'll TMY to 2021.  The extreme is 2023.  I'll be 55 in 2023 and I'd say that's the last birthday I could claim early retirement.
Bateaux, I've seen you in the "double comma" threads, and I fail to see why you are THAT worried.  AFAIK your expenses month to month are not that bad.  You do have a slight cashflow issue (2 mortages or some such that I haven't researched)  at this very moment, which you could handwave away. 

Be careful what you wish for
Quote
I'd like to see it right now.
, as it would just make you Infinite More Years (IMY).

As I've not seen  Infinite More Years (IMY)  used yet, I'm copyrighting it  :-)
   

Bateaux

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #549 on: October 11, 2018, 11:59:36 PM »
How much further does the market need to drop for you to get to the dreaded OMY or TMY!?!?

Could start a never ending chain reaction of 2019 bumping to 2020 etc.

I'm a OMY from 2019 to 2020 largely because there has been no recession. I'd like to see it right now.   I'm currently down 90K and the drop down is likely just getting started.   If need be I'll TMY to 2021.  The extreme is 2023.  I'll be 55 in 2023 and I'd say that's the last birthday I could claim early retirement.
Bateaux, I've seen you in the "double comma" threads, and I fail to see why you are THAT worried.  AFAIK your expenses month to month are not that bad.  You do have a slight cashflow issue (2 mortages or some such that I haven't researched)  at this very moment, which you could handwave away. 

Be careful what you wish for
Quote
I'd like to see it right now.
, as it would just make you Infinite More Years (IMY).

As I've not seen  Infinite More Years (IMY)  used yet, I'm copyrighting it  :-)
   

Definitely going to try and be done 2020.  We did recently get a mortgage on a Florida home.   Current home is paid off.  I'm freaking out a bit falling below the 2 million invested threshold.   That's my bottom where I'll seek employment post retirement.   Since I'm still working it's not a big deal.  I'd like to reach 2.5 million before quitting but could do with less.
Hopefully getting on my bicycle for a short tour this weekend.   That and a campout will probably calm the nerves.  Thanks for the words.