Author Topic: 2020 FIRE Cohort  (Read 427497 times)

AO1FireTo

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #850 on: June 20, 2019, 10:20:57 AM »
Since we are so close, I was wondering what the ages are for most people in the FIRE class of 2020? I'm 45 right now and will be 46 at FIRE time with 25 years in the professional w*%kforce. Is there an average or median age for our class?

Yes this would be great to know, give some of us not in this cohort some hope :)

markbike528CBX

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #851 on: June 20, 2019, 10:57:29 AM »
Since we are so close, I was wondering what the ages are for most people in the FIRE class of 2020? I'm 45 right now and will be 46 at FIRE time with 25 years in the professional w*%kforce. Is there an average or median age for our class?

SUGGESTION: add a column to the class list.  See 2019 cohort class list for example.

beeboy

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #852 on: June 20, 2019, 10:58:56 AM »
Since we are so close, I was wondering what the ages are for most people in the FIRE class of 2020? I'm 45 right now and will be 46 at FIRE time with 25 years in the professional w*%kforce. Is there an average or median age for our class?

SUGGESTION: add a column to the class list.  See 2019 cohort class list for example.

Good idea. Which page is the class list on? I need to add me! :0)

markbike528CBX

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #853 on: June 20, 2019, 11:14:56 AM »
Since we are so close, I was wondering what the ages are for most people in the FIRE class of 2020? I'm 45 right now and will be 46 at FIRE time with 25 years in the professional w*%kforce. Is there an average or median age for our class?

SUGGESTION: add a column to the class list.  See 2019 cohort class list for example.

Good idea. Which page is the class list on? I need to add me! :0)
Pg 17, just one page ago.   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/2020-fire-cohort/msg2386669/#msg2386669

Copy and paste the list.   Note that the thread is trying to keep the list to once per page, so if you post it YOU have to update it, as only you can update/edit your posts.

Hey 2020! sounds like @beeboy has vounteered as the keeper of the list :-)

beeboy

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #854 on: June 20, 2019, 12:48:05 PM »
Since we are so close, I was wondering what the ages are for most people in the FIRE class of 2020? I'm 45 right now and will be 46 at FIRE time with 25 years in the professional w*%kforce. Is there an average or median age for our class?

SUGGESTION: add a column to the class list.  See 2019 cohort class list for example.

Good idea. Which page is the class list on? I need to add me! :0)
Pg 17, just one page ago.   https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/2020-fire-cohort/msg2386669/#msg2386669

Copy and paste the list.   Note that the thread is trying to keep the list to once per page, so if you post it YOU have to update it, as only you can update/edit your posts.

Hey 2020! sounds like @beeboy has vounteered as the keeper of the list :-)

Thanks markbike, but keeper of the list sounds like too big of a responsibility for me. Maybe once I'm FIRE I'll have some extra time to handle :0)

Body Surfer

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #855 on: June 20, 2019, 02:59:04 PM »
I am considering increasing my AA from 45/55 to 60/40  stock-cash for at least my last year of working.  What are your investment AA%?

FIREstache

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #856 on: June 20, 2019, 03:15:56 PM »
@Linea_Norway has been updating the list.

I'm 54 but will be 55 if I FIRE on schedule.  I could have FIREd a few years earlier, but I wanted more funds for discretionary as well as some padding in the stash, plus the ongoing uncertainty of the ACA.

If it works out, it will still be much earlier than my full retirement age of 67, which is what I used to figure I would work to.

I actually reduced my AA from 80% stocks to 60% in mid-2018 and further reduced to 43% stocks on May 3rd of this year with FIRE targeted just over 9 months out and with a 10 year delay before drawing SS.  The shorter windows to FIRE and to SS give me a better success rate with a lower stock allocation, although I plan to use a rising equity glide path to increase my equity exposure some in the years following FIRE.

My stash hit a new record today.  Yeh!!
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 03:43:03 PM by FIREstache »

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #857 on: June 21, 2019, 12:56:59 AM »
The @ indicates FIRE age.

07/2020     2sk22
??/2020     apurplelife
04-05/2020     aspiringnomad (@37)
08/2020     Bateaux
03-04+2/2020     Beeboy (@46)
12/2020     BFGirl
??/2020     BlueMR2   
??/2020     catccc
??/2020     DadzillaGorilla (FI@35, RE@40)
12/2020     david_shin
12/202?     desk_jockey
04/2020     DreamFIRE
??/2020      EscapeVelocity2020
04/2020     Exit2019
10/2020     Farmgirl
03/2020     FInding_peace (@38)
??/2020     FIREby2021
??/2020     FireLane (@38)
??/2020     FIREstache (@55)
??/2020     Freedomin5 (@38)
??/202?     Gumption
04/2020     Itchyfeet
06/2020     ixtap (date uncertain)
??/2020     letsdoit
??/2020     LadyMaWhiskers
01-03/2020     Linea_Norway (@46)
07-12/2020     MMM123
10/2020     Maenad
11/2020     meatgrinder
12/2020     MoneyTree (@36)
01/2020     Now-non (or earlier, in 2019)
??/2020     onlykelsey   
04/2020     Pennycounter
03/2020     rab-bit (@58)
05/2020     Rcc
04-12/2020     robtown
10/2020     Rubyvroom
12/2020     Sand101
03/2020     TheContinaltalOp
12/2020     TheFIExplorer
11/2020    ToughMother
??/2020     tooqk4u22   
05-06/2020     Unique User
12/2020     ysette9 (@38)


OLY:
2Birds1Stone

OMY:
RedefinedHappiness

FIREing later:
FIPurpose (date to decided)
« Last Edit: July 02, 2019, 11:07:50 PM by Linea_Norway »

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #858 on: June 21, 2019, 01:00:14 AM »
For a better table, please feel free to make a copy and a better version of the list.

I am also 46 and will FIRE while still 46. Never again a birthday (in June) as a working bee!

MMM123

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #859 on: June 21, 2019, 02:23:06 AM »
In.

Have a long way to go - will definitely be the second half of 2020 I fear! 

"RE" for me won't be to stop working, but to stop working for other people, and instead work on my own things in my own time (I'd go stir crazy sitting at home doing nothing anyways...).


Freedomin5

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #860 on: June 21, 2019, 08:04:11 AM »
Iím hoping to hit FIRE status when Iím still 38.

FIREstache

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #861 on: June 21, 2019, 08:34:40 AM »
The @ indicates FIRE age.

See one post before your list.  :)

ysette9

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #862 on: June 21, 2019, 10:40:30 AM »
Iím hoping to hit FIRE status when Iím still 38.
Woot woot! I turn 38 early 2020 and so that is my target too. Worst case scenario I want to be able to say I retired before 40. :)

beeboy

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #863 on: June 21, 2019, 10:41:34 AM »
Since we are so close, I was wondering what the ages are for most people in the FIRE class of 2020? I'm 45 right now and will be 46 at FIRE time with 25 years in the professional w*%kforce. Is there an average or median age for our class?

SUGGESTION: add a column to the class list.  See 2019 cohort class list for example.

Looking at the 2019 FIRE page, it seems like there is a pretty even mix of people in their 30s, 40s, 50s and then some in their 60s and even someone who is 29 who just retired! As for my FIRE date, I plan on FIRE-ing in March or April of 2020, but will probably have to stay on for 2 months after that per my contract.

rab-bit

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #864 on: June 21, 2019, 01:08:02 PM »
I am 58 and will still be 58 if I retire according to my planned March 2020 date. It could be sooner (even late 2019!) -  I am waiting to see if my employer offers a buyout again this year. They offered a buyout last September but I would not have been eligible for it even if I was ready and willing then. Maybe this time would be different.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 01:09:39 PM by rab-bit »

itchyfeet

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #865 on: June 23, 2019, 11:32:34 AM »
Sneaking myself on this list as well as 2019..... and maybe 2021. Haha. I will never cease being the most indecisive person I know....


07/2020     2sk22
??/2020     apurplelife
04-05/2020     aspiringnomad
08/2020     Bateaux
03-04+2/2020     Beeboy (@46)
12/2020     BFGirl
??/2020     BlueMR2   
??/2020     catccc   
12/2020     david_shin
12/202?     desk_jockey
04/2020     DreamFIRE
04/2020      Itchyfeet
??/2020      EscapeVelocity2020
04/2020     Exit2019
10/2020     Farmgirl
??/2020     FIREby2021
??/2020     FireLane
??/2020     FIREstache (@55)
??/2020     Freedomin5 (@38)
??/202?     Gumption
06/2020     ixtap (date uncertain)
??/2020     letsdoit
??/2020     LadyMaWhiskers
03/2020     Linea_Norway (@46)
07-12/2020     MMM123
10/2020     Maenad
11/2020     meatgrinder
12/2020     MoneyTree
01/2020     Now-non (or earlier, in 2019)
??/2020     onlykelsey   
04/2020     Pennycounter
03/2020     rab-bit (@58)
05/2020     Rcc
04/2020     robtown (maybe 12/31/2020)
10/2020     Rubyvroom
12/2020     Sand101
03/2020     TheContinaltalOp
12/2020     TheFIExplorer
11/2020    ToughMother
??/2020     tooqk4u22   
05/2020     Unique User (maybe 06/2020)
12/2020     ysette9 (@38)


OLY:
2Birds1Stone

OMY:
RedefinedHappiness

FIREing later:
FIPurpose (date to decided)

FIREstache

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #866 on: June 23, 2019, 12:31:56 PM »
Copy and paste the list.   Note that the thread is trying to keep the list to once per page, so if you post it YOU have to update it, as only you can update/edit your posts.

I agree, we should have the list only once per page.  We don't want this to end up like the 2019 list where half the time you open it, it's just a new posting of the list.

Linea_Norway is handling the list and can update the previous post with any edits.

MoneyTree

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #867 on: June 23, 2019, 11:08:51 PM »
If I manage to avoid OMYing, I will be 36 at FIRE

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #868 on: June 24, 2019, 01:09:56 AM »
I am updating the list as new info is posted here.

Some time later this year, the list will be resorted by date. For the moment I think the alphabetic list is practical for maintenance purposes.

To me, it is incredible that some people can FIRE in their thirties, that is so young.
In my own case, I think we have fallen for some lifestyle inflation and could have FIREd earlier if we hadn't done so. Plus that my FIRE budget is much higher than our actual expenses, because I have planned for some eventualitites and I would hate having to go back to work. I wonder a bit how many years we could have shaved off if we would have made other choices. Maybe 5 years. But anyway, there is no point in dwelling things you can't change anymore. Now I am just looking forward and thinking in how much a better situation I am compared to my co-workers who don't have the same way out. There are more than just myself who really need it.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2019, 01:14:39 AM by Linea_Norway »

beeboy

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #869 on: June 24, 2019, 09:16:28 AM »
Now I am just looking forward and thinking in how much a better situation I am compared to my co-workers who don't have the same way out. There are more than just myself who really need it.

Yeah, I feel for some of my friends (not really my co-workers ). Was out with a few friends on Friday night and we kinda got into future plans, etc. and I could just tell that they are so far away from being able to do what we have all decided. There really aren't many of us out there.

FInding_peace

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #870 on: June 24, 2019, 09:47:04 AM »
Hello 2020 crew!  If it's alright, I'd like to throw my hat in the ring and join you, targeting March 2020.  I'll be 38 years old, which seems to be a popular age in this crew ;-). 

I've actually been targeting 2020 since February 2016 when I started my current job.  Back then, I thought I could just barely make it to FI by the end of 2020.  I then firmed up the target date to May 15, 2020 after getting a 10% raise in spring of 2017.  A one-year retention bonus that will pay out in January 2020 now makes it look like I can move that up a couple months more and squeak out in March.  We'll see how it all goes, but I'm feeling pretty confident about the 2020 part at least.  I still can't believe it's so close now after so many years of working and saving.  I first read about MMM and started dreaming of FIRE back in 2012.  It seems unreal that it's really going to happen, I'm really doing this. 

A bit about me: I'm a 38-year-old female (also a June birthday ;-) ).  I'm currently a data scientist at a tech company, and I used to be a professor in academia before that.  I have about 85K left to go to my FI goal currently.  I'm hoping to spend my FI time slowing down and living life at a more relaxed pace, doing outdoorsy things like hiking and rock climbing, cooking and baking, reading, traveling, tinkering around with stuff I find interesting, and dabbling in photography or painting.  I'd also like to build stronger friendships and a fulfilling long-term romantic relationship.   

Looking forward to 2020! 

aspiringnomad

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #871 on: June 24, 2019, 09:39:38 PM »
I'll be 37 when I put in my notice next year. To be honest, we've been referring to our plans as a sabbatical to our friends, mainly because I'm kind of embarrassed saying that I'm retiring but also because so much after the next 2-3 years is up in the air. Who would have thunk that slow-travel through Southern Europe would be the most solid part of the plan?

Anyway, the house is sold, the rental condo is paid off, and I'm enjoying being both a renter and a landlord for the time being. Things are coming together nicely (knocks on wood).

aspiringnomad

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #872 on: June 24, 2019, 09:45:54 PM »
Hello 2020 crew!  If it's alright, I'd like to throw my hat in the ring and join you, targeting March 2020.  I'll be 38 years old, which seems to be a popular age in this crew ;-). 

I've actually been targeting 2020 since February 2016 when I started my current job.  Back then, I thought I could just barely make it to FI by the end of 2020.  I then firmed up the target date to May 15, 2020 after getting a 10% raise in spring of 2017.  A one-year retention bonus that will pay out in January 2020 now makes it look like I can move that up a couple months more and squeak out in March.  We'll see how it all goes, but I'm feeling pretty confident about the 2020 part at least.  I still can't believe it's so close now after so many years of working and saving.  I first read about MMM and started dreaming of FIRE back in 2012.  It seems unreal that it's really going to happen, I'm really doing this. 

A bit about me: I'm a 38-year-old female (also a June birthday ;-) ).  I'm currently a data scientist at a tech company, and I used to be a professor in academia before that.  I have about 85K left to go to my FI goal currently.  I'm hoping to spend my FI time slowing down and living life at a more relaxed pace, doing outdoorsy things like hiking and rock climbing, cooking and baking, reading, traveling, tinkering around with stuff I find interesting, and dabbling in photography or painting.  I'd also like to build stronger friendships and a fulfilling long-term romantic relationship.   

Looking forward to 2020!


Welcome to the cohort, FInding_peace! Your story is similar to mine in a lot of ways, including working in a data-oriented field and finding MMM in 2012. It's hard to believe that the goal is so close after all those years. Cheers!

aspiringnomad

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #873 on: June 24, 2019, 10:03:39 PM »
For those of you who are quitting there job and/or moving next year, are you already thinking about this being the last year?

I have this feeling quite often and had it from last year, as we did a OMY. I am often thinking that this is the last time I have to do this yearly task (at work or at home) or the last time I can do this seasonal thing in my neighbourhood.

Some tasks I am happy to loose next year. But I have lived in my current area for almost 2 decades and know the area well, and a good number of people. It will be pretty weird to move somewhere else and start from scratch again. I am a bit anxious about it. On the other hand, if we can do this moving at our own pace, without having to bother about a job, it should be quite doable.

In September/October it will start for real and we will hire a broker to start the home sale process. We will try to sell in winter time. Let's hope the market won't go down by then. Currently there are a couple of homes for sale in the area where I live and I'm surprices at the very high prices for not high-end homes. Our home has the greatest view you can imagine that that alone should make it very attractive for some people. It is also big and looks a bit high end from inside. Nice wooden floor, big living room, big fire place etc.

We sort of did a trial run by selling our place and moving to a new neighborhood where we are renting for a year. It's not far from our old neighborhood, but it has a very different vibe. No regrets whatsoever, but admittedly it's very easy to visit our old neighbors and haunts for now.

Also have to admit that I am getting anxious about the big move, though I can't tell whether the source of that anxiety is shifting countries and the bureaucratic headaches involved or just turning off the firehose of cash. Just gotta push through that anxiety, because...one life, lots to see and experience, time is the only thing you don't get back, stay adventurous, YOLO, etc., etc.... :)

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #874 on: June 26, 2019, 03:36:09 PM »
My BF moved in and proposed, so now he is my fiancee.  He is very supportive of me retiring if that's what I want. He loves his job and has certain career goals he wants to meet, so retirement isn't on his horizon for the next 10-15 years. 

I still plan on the end of 2020, but sometimes flirt with OMY or 2MY to build up the stash and pension more.  I have a new boss who is awesome, but I'm just tired of the job itself and not being able to pursue my side gig full time.

Down to 554 total days and 396 workdays until I can walk out the door if I want to.  :-)

ysette9

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #875 on: June 26, 2019, 04:42:56 PM »
My BF moved in and proposed, so now he is my fiancee.  He is very supportive of me retiring if that's what I want. He loves his job and has certain career goals he wants to meet, so retirement isn't on his horizon for the next 10-15 years. 

I still plan on the end of 2020, but sometimes flirt with OMY or 2MY to build up the stash and pension more.  I have a new boss who is awesome, but I'm just tired of the job itself and not being able to pursue my side gig full time.

Down to 554 total days and 396 workdays until I can walk out the door if I want to.  :-)
Congratulations on your engagement!

What would combined finances look like if you fiancť decided in a year or two that FIRE looked like more fun than working after all?

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #876 on: June 27, 2019, 01:23:56 AM »
My BF moved in and proposed, so now he is my fiancee.  He is very supportive of me retiring if that's what I want. He loves his job and has certain career goals he wants to meet, so retirement isn't on his horizon for the next 10-15 years. 

I still plan on the end of 2020, but sometimes flirt with OMY or 2MY to build up the stash and pension more.  I have a new boss who is awesome, but I'm just tired of the job itself and not being able to pursue my side gig full time.

Down to 554 total days and 396 workdays until I can walk out the door if I want to.  :-)

Congrats on your engagement.

If you have a great boss now, is there any chance you can talk about getting different tasks at work to make it more interesting? Isn't your side gig going to provide some extra cushion after FIRE?
I presume it is more difficult to live on a lean budget if you would now have a partner with a more normal spending pattern. I hope he sees the value of not spending mindlessly on e.g. food and eating out.

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #877 on: June 27, 2019, 08:01:57 AM »
My BF moved in and proposed, so now he is my fiancee.  He is very supportive of me retiring if that's what I want. He loves his job and has certain career goals he wants to meet, so retirement isn't on his horizon for the next 10-15 years. 

I still plan on the end of 2020, but sometimes flirt with OMY or 2MY to build up the stash and pension more.  I have a new boss who is awesome, but I'm just tired of the job itself and not being able to pursue my side gig full time.

Down to 554 total days and 396 workdays until I can walk out the door if I want to.  :-)
Congratulations on your engagement!

What would combined finances look like if you fiancť decided in a year or two that FIRE looked like more fun than working after all?

He doesn't have near the retirement stash that I have due to divorce and having to go back and get custody, so it would probably be tighter than I would like for us both to retire.  Health insurance would also be a factor.  He would also go crazy without something to do and I want to work on my side gig, so I don't really see him wanting to retire anytime soon.

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #878 on: June 27, 2019, 08:24:13 AM »
My BF moved in and proposed, so now he is my fiancee.  He is very supportive of me retiring if that's what I want. He loves his job and has certain career goals he wants to meet, so retirement isn't on his horizon for the next 10-15 years. 

I still plan on the end of 2020, but sometimes flirt with OMY or 2MY to build up the stash and pension more.  I have a new boss who is awesome, but I'm just tired of the job itself and not being able to pursue my side gig full time.

Down to 554 total days and 396 workdays until I can walk out the door if I want to.  :-)

Congrats on your engagement.

If you have a great boss now, is there any chance you can talk about getting different tasks at work to make it more interesting? Isn't your side gig going to provide some extra cushion after FIRE?
I presume it is more difficult to live on a lean budget if you would now have a partner with a more normal spending pattern. I hope he sees the value of not spending mindlessly on e.g. food and eating out.

Thanks for the congratulations!

The job is pretty much what it is, due to the nature of the work and personalities of other coworkers.

The side gig will give me a little extra cushion, but I am not factoring it into my fire budget because it is dependent upon my productivity.

I am probably more spendy than some people on this forum, but he and I are mostly on the same page with our views on finances.  We plan to keep our finances separate since we each have college aged kids from other marriages and just keep a joint account for household expenses.

Sharing expenses (and the fact that I could go on his health insurance) gives me a bit more cushion for FIRE, but I still want to make sure I can feasibly manage it even without sharing expenses in case something unforeseen happens.

Since I am a little more spendy, there are also various things I can cut from my budget if necessary.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2019, 08:26:14 AM by BFGirl »

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #879 on: July 01, 2019, 07:46:06 AM »
I just installed some countdown timers on my phone. One for the summer vacation that will start in 10 days. One one for FIRE, as well for quitting my job, which is 3 months before FIRE (3 months is not my choice, but by contract).

I would still like to FIRE the first of Jan 2020. But DH thinks it is so smart to use up our free foot of income tax, which is approx 2 months of salary. He also thought of FIRE budget was not including any taxes to be paid, but it is. So we really have a lot to live off. I doubt whether we need those 2 months of salary, but of course, the pay if better than usual if you don't pay any income taxes. As we don't yet agree on a date, I put the first of February in my counter. But this might be subject to change.

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #880 on: July 01, 2019, 11:17:38 AM »
Hello team-2020!

June Highlights:

- Mirror image of May, from a financial perspective.  After 2 months of (expected) low savings months, we got back on track with our regularly scheduled savings program.  Also nice to see positive market performance, with quarterly dividends playing the role of savings accelerator.  At the mid-way point of 2019, our NW stands at an all-time high-water mark.  Markets swing up and down, but we expect to have steady savings rates through the EOY to keep the overall stache movement in a positive direction.

- While May was a month full of long-weekend mini-adventures, June was a month where we finally took a real vacation break.  Spent a week in Maine hiking around Acadia National Park (fun!), and spent some time in the TX hill country for some refreshing, relaxing days afterward.  July kicks off with a long weekend, then I plan working remotely for 2 weeks while continuing to support my aging parents out-of-state.

- As of today, our NW provides the following: a paid-off FIRE home, fully-funded FIRE lump sums (giving, renovation budget, replacement car) and a 4.42% WR based on our projected annual spend (living expenses, taxes, home maintenance, travel, healthcare, etc.).

- Countdown: Assuming monthly progress on par with our historic averages, we should clip sub-4% by Q1-2020 en-route to our ultimate goal of 3.75% by Q4-2020, but who knows what lies ahead.  My whiteboard countdown tracker now shows 20 months remain to reach our most-likely FIRE target timing of Q1-2021.

EOY 2015 = 53.8%
EOY 2016 = 67.8%
EOY 2017 = 75.5%
EOY 2018 = 81.6%


// FI target defined as 3.75% SWR, mortgage-free + giving/lump sum funded //

END OF MONTH PROGRESS:
JAN 2019  84.5%
FEB 2019  86.9%
MAR 2019 88.4%
APR 2019 89.0%
MAY 2019 86.1%
JUN 2019 89.3%

Peace out!

FIREby2021
« Last Edit: July 04, 2019, 01:04:23 PM by FIREby2021 »

ysette9

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #881 on: July 01, 2019, 12:58:18 PM »
I updated our financial spreadsheet today to get a snapshot of where everything is at. With our investment gods smiling on us we topped in at 94% of our stated FIRE goal. Funny how the closer we get, the less confident I feel that it is The Number and that we know what the hell we are talking about. All of these things that I've sort of glossed over to this point are starting me in the face as things I really need to figure out, and soon. Things like

  • How to calculate what our MAGI will be, ACA subsidies, etc.
  • How to actually live off of our investments - which accounts to pull from and when and how, what asset allocation
  • Factoring in state taxes into the budget (my first pass guest put that at around 5-8%, so I haven't been paying close attention
  • How to think of the mortgage in retirement and how that stacks up with a larger bond holding in our AA. I like the reverse equity glidepath for reducing sequence of returns risk, but https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/10/11/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-21-mortgage-in-retirement/this article makes me re-think the intelligence of a large bond holding while simultaneously holding a large mortgage. I'm not sure where to go for more info or how to model this out.

FIREstache

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #882 on: July 01, 2019, 04:50:04 PM »
I have to structure my drawdown so that I minimize MAGI during the first 10 years of retirement, assuming the ACA & subsidies are still available, in order to maximum PCT and CSR.  So I'll pull more from my brokerage early and pull more from my retirement plan later on, as it will generate more MAGI when I'm no longer using an ACA plan.  I've got it all laid out in a spreadsheet how I plan to withdraw while on the ACA and later on Medicare & SS and how much MAGI I'll have and taxes I'll have to pay based on my estimated income required for spending over those time periods.  Still waiting to see what happens with the ACA lawsuit, though.

And yehhh....  my stash just hit a new record today, about 102% of my stash goal which includes a nice discretionary amount.

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #883 on: July 02, 2019, 01:07:41 AM »
We are at 100% our 2020 FIRE stash and growing. As some of you might have understood, we are not going to live off 4% of 25X spending for the rest of our lives, but we are going to eat up our stash for the next 21 years until we receive our normal pensions. So my 100% is based on 4% growth per year and taking out a pretty high spending sum, which is almost double our normal yearly spending. But this should include some big purchases from time to time, like home renovation, new car etc. We will probably have years that we won't spend the whole budget, so I think the stash will grow.

Yesterday I also used the visual rich, broke, dead calculator once more: https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/
And for the first time, we don't go broke in that calculator. But we might still die of course. Things are looking positive financially.

I am sitting out the year to receive this years pension (7% of my income), as I will loose it if I quite before the year has ended. We are only taking about 6000$, as I work 80%. And as mentioned above, I am negotiating with DH about how much to work into 2020 for beneficial tax rules. I am thinking about 1 month max. DH also mentioned that if we cannot sell the clown house for our minimum amount, you can either stay living in it (FIRE) and hope the market will get better. Or sell cheap and keep working longer, living somewhere else close to it. I am still positive that we can sell our home for a good price, maybe a good deal above our minimum price. And we will be able to FIRE with good conscience. We will need to talk to another real estate broker first, before we give notice at our jobs. We will start the process at the end of September by finding a broker.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2019, 02:24:22 AM by Linea_Norway »

Freedomin5

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #884 on: July 02, 2019, 01:51:26 AM »
Congratulations @Linea_Norway !

DadzillaGorilla

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #885 on: July 02, 2019, 06:26:14 AM »
Hi All,

First post on webpage so here goes...

Not sure if I will RE in 2020, but sure am going to be financially independent. I am an accountant in Financial Services, but have also run small enterprises outside of work for many years. I am currently 35, and have intended to retire at 40 for most of my life, but am making moves to bring this forward should I wish.

I worked 60 hours in McDonalds while doing my university degree and have always been considerate with my money. I have never been a big spender (grew up on a council estate and got used to be thrifty due to a poor upbringing), and as such I save around 70% of my salary putting into Pension/Share ISA/Property/Crypto/Antiques/Art etc while still never thinking "I would like something" but can't have it.

Some of my biggest savings are not buying clothes from a retail store, but everything comes from second hand/vintage stores, as well as driving a 96 Volkswagen that I own and would not spend on a car due to loss of depreciation and Tax instantly.

Anyway, enough of an intro, here is to FI in 2020 and RE whenever my boss annoys me too much to continue :)

Any questions give me a shout :)


Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #886 on: July 02, 2019, 07:30:41 AM »
Hi All,

First post on webpage so here goes...

Not sure if I will RE in 2020, but sure am going to be financially independent. I am an accountant in Financial Services, but have also run small enterprises outside of work for many years. I am currently 35, and have intended to retire at 40 for most of my life, but am making moves to bring this forward should I wish.

I worked 60 hours in McDonalds while doing my university degree and have always been considerate with my money. I have never been a big spender (grew up on a council estate and got used to be thrifty due to a poor upbringing), and as such I save around 70% of my salary putting into Pension/Share ISA/Property/Crypto/Antiques/Art etc while still never thinking "I would like something" but can't have it.

Some of my biggest savings are not buying clothes from a retail store, but everything comes from second hand/vintage stores, as well as driving a 96 Volkswagen that I own and would not spend on a car due to loss of depreciation and Tax instantly.

Anyway, enough of an intro, here is to FI in 2020 and RE whenever my boss annoys me too much to continue :)

Any questions give me a shout :)

Welcome to the group. Working while being FI is a good position to be in. Maybe let your boss know that you could leave any moment, then maybe he/she will behave.

DadzillaGorilla

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #887 on: July 02, 2019, 08:06:36 AM »
@Linea_Norway  - She is well aware that I am leaving at 40, been open about that from start. She doesn't know I am rushing it forward though :)

TheContinentalOp

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #888 on: July 02, 2019, 09:01:25 AM »
I am 54.

I might already have achieved FI. Right now a 4% withdrawal rate would give me 151% of my current spending.

But I'd like to save up until I get to a buffer of 3.5% for 150% of my spending.

That probably won't happen by my current target date of March 2020.

But now there's a possibility that our office will move in March. We moved within the same building 5 years ago and it was a real hassle. This time we'd be moving to a new address and I don't know if I want to do all the work associated with that. So if we do move, I might bail short of my financial buffer.

FireLane

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #889 on: July 02, 2019, 05:23:51 PM »
I'll be 38 in 2020 as well! Looks like it's a popular age in this cohort.

When I did my last end-of-month spreadsheet, I was within 3% of my number. It's possible I'll hit it this year, but even if I do, I'm not planning to OLY. No matter what happens, I think I'll work until 2020 at least. If I give myself a little extra padding, that's no bad thing.

I updated our financial spreadsheet today to get a snapshot of where everything is at. With our investment gods smiling on us we topped in at 94% of our stated FIRE goal. Funny how the closer we get, the less confident I feel that it is The Number and that we know what the hell we are talking about.

You should do a drawdown analysis, @ysette9! Pick a withdrawal rate you can live on, then figure out which accounts that will be coming from and how much of that is capital gains. I did a similar exercise in my journal, and it was actually very reassuring as far as how much I'll be paying in taxes and what level of subsidies I can expect for health insurance. Most of us FIRE folk will be able to live very well while having virtually no taxable income.

FIREstache

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #890 on: July 02, 2019, 05:38:03 PM »
I am 54.

I might already have achieved FI. Right now a 4% withdrawal rate would give me 151% of my current spending.

But I'd like to save up until I get to a buffer of 3.5% for 150% of my spending.

54 here also.  You've definitely achieved FI with those numbers, and that's without even factoring that you'll be able to get SS benefits 10 or so years into FIRE.  At age 65, I figure I can drop my WR from 3.5% to 2.2% despite increased health care spending under Medicare because starting SS benefits will fund a chunk of my expenses.

ysette9

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #891 on: July 02, 2019, 05:48:35 PM »
I'll be 38 in 2020 as well! Looks like it's a popular age in this cohort.

When I did my last end-of-month spreadsheet, I was within 3% of my number. It's possible I'll hit it this year, but even if I do, I'm not planning to OLY. No matter what happens, I think I'll work until 2020 at least. If I give myself a little extra padding, that's no bad thing.

I updated our financial spreadsheet today to get a snapshot of where everything is at. With our investment gods smiling on us we topped in at 94% of our stated FIRE goal. Funny how the closer we get, the less confident I feel that it is The Number and that we know what the hell we are talking about.

You should do a drawdown analysis, @ysette9! Pick a withdrawal rate you can live on, then figure out which accounts that will be coming from and how much of that is capital gains. I did a similar exercise in my journal, and it was actually very reassuring as far as how much I'll be paying in taxes and what level of subsidies I can expect for health insurance. Most of us FIRE folk will be able to live very well while having virtually no taxable income.
I need to figure out a template for how to start this. I suck at taxes so I wonder if i need to get some paper forms to walk me through how this stuff is actually calculated so I can understand? The TurboTax interfaced is nice for tax dummies but isnít good for figuring out what is going on behind the scenes.

Are you carrying a mortgage by chance? What is your asset allocation plan?

We plan on drawing down our taxable account first but that is all equities. I also read that drawing down cash\bonds first is the way to got for sequence of returns risk, but I donít know how to marry these two conflicting (in our case) pieces of smart tax advice.

FireLane

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #892 on: July 02, 2019, 06:29:00 PM »
My mortgage is paid off, so I can't help on that point, sorry. But I wouldn't think that it's different from any other fixed expense.

My taxable account is all equities as well, and that's the one I plan to draw down first. I have an 80/20 stock/bond allocation, but I keep all bonds in my tax-exempt account for tax efficiency reasons.

ysette9

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #893 on: July 02, 2019, 09:49:45 PM »
So what is your thought then on having some portion in cash and/or bonds for spending in a downturn, and what do you think about the idea of a reverse equity glidepath to guard against sequence of returns risk?

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/09/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-19-equity-glidepaths/

Iíll have to check out your journal to see what kind of analysis you did for inspiration.

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #894 on: July 02, 2019, 11:13:17 PM »
So what is your thought then on having some portion in cash and/or bonds for spending in a downturn, and what do you think about the idea of a reverse equity glidepath to guard against sequence of returns risk?

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/09/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-19-equity-glidepaths/

Iíll have to check out your journal to see what kind of analysis you did for inspiration.

Quite a few people on this site have 1-3 years spending budget in cash, to sit a market down period.

FIREstache

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #895 on: July 03, 2019, 04:59:26 AM »

Indeed - I'm only around 43% equities myself as I've moved to a much more conservative AA in the last year as I approach FIRE.  I had been closer to 80% prior to starting to reallocate one year ago.  I'm 54 with a year to my target date and am well beyond my FIRE number, otherwise I wouldn't be playing it as conservative.

FireLane

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #896 on: July 03, 2019, 08:20:10 PM »
Holding 3 years' expenses in cash sounds like way too much to me! Not only would it add time to your accumulation phase, you're incurring significant cash drag.

For short recessions, sure, you'll be protected. But short recessions won't trouble a FIREee with 25-33x expenses saved either. The problem is if there's a recession that lasts longer. In that case, you'll exhaust your cash holdings and end up in the same boat as everyone else, having to sell stock in a down market, plus you'll have lost out on the dividends you could have earned in the meantime.

I feel the same way about reverse equity glidepaths or a 50% bond allocation. These all sound like good, conservative measures for people who plan on a standard-length retirement or something close to it. But for those of us who are planning on being retired for 40 or 50 years, the biggest danger is outliving our money.

Remember, the original Trinity Study defined "success" as "do you have at least one dollar left after 30 years of retirement". But for most FIREees, that's not going to cut it. Having a portfolio that lasts 30 years is no good if you go broke in year 31.

I'm not a portfolio-construction expert by any means, I'm just some guy on the internet. But from what I've read, stocks are the only asset class that delivers the long-term growth needed to sustain a perpetual withdrawal rate. Every dollar you hold in cash or low-yielding bonds is a dollar that isn't growing and won't be there for you years down the line. (But I've also read that an 80/20 split is an efficient frontier that offers almost as much growth potential with less volatility, which is why I hold that.)

My defensive plan is keeping to a low withdrawal rate, 3.5% or less. Even that's not an absolute bare-bones existence for me, and in a crisis, I could reduce it still further and/or seek part-time work. After the first few years of retirement, if my portfolio has grown substantially, I'll be past the worst sequence-of-returns risk period and should be able to loosen the belt a bit more.

tawyer

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #897 on: July 03, 2019, 09:33:36 PM »
PTF and bookmark all the information here.

We are arguably FI now but are wanting to derisk the RE aspect by reducing our SWR because we are in our 30s. And because US healthcare. In 2020 we will both have 40 credits, so SS will in theory be adequate to support us when we get there, so if our stash runs out, that's a backup plan.

Looking forward to reading more from those on a similar timeline!
Time for a two-years-later check-in, having been lurking for so long. We are definitely FI now, on our fairly conservative terms, but still hanging on for 2020, mainly because we haven't decided where to go next. We are considering testing out Minneapolis, Denver, Burlington, for example.

ysette9

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #898 on: July 03, 2019, 09:37:37 PM »
Interesting because Iím planning on reverse equity glidepath because I donít want to put in the extra years to work to get to a 3.5% withdrawal rate. :)

It is only one article and one study, but our blueprint comes from this article that models 60 year retirements. The goal seems to be to get through the first ten years, after which you should pretty much be home free.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/09/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-19-equity-glidepaths/

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #899 on: July 04, 2019, 01:14:19 AM »
I also think 3 years of cash is a lot. My DH keeps a little under 1 years expenses on his bank account and I can't understand why he needs that much cash. Especially since we are still in the accumulation phase.

Our NW is 12 mil crowns. 8 of those are in our home, 1 in our cabin, 3 in index funds and 0,2 in cash. So we are very real estate heavy on 1 single asset. Plan is to move to a 4 mil home and invest the other 4 into stocks and maybe some bonds.

Our stash doesn't have to last for 30 or 60 years. But it would be nice to have something left after the end of 21 years.