Author Topic: 2020 FIRE Cohort  (Read 94424 times)

DreamFIRE

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #450 on: May 15, 2018, 09:07:09 PM »

I'm looking to June 2019 for now, but if the economy starts to go to shit and my investments drop over the next year, I might have to join the 2020 cohorts.  I'm slowly moving to a more conservative AA, but I can only take so much of a hit before I will OMY, which is sometimes tempting even if the stash is doing well.  I'm still planning for 2019 for as long as I can - at least FIRE doesn't seem so far off that way.

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #451 on: May 16, 2018, 01:06:06 AM »

I'm looking to June 2019 for now, but if the economy starts to go to shit and my investments drop over the next year, I might have to join the 2020 cohorts.  I'm slowly moving to a more conservative AA, but I can only take so much of a hit before I will OMY, which is sometimes tempting even if the stash is doing well.  I'm still planning for 2019 for as long as I can - at least FIRE doesn't seem so far off that way.

How about doing OMY part time working?

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #452 on: May 16, 2018, 01:13:06 AM »
A recession late 2018 and 2019 with recovery in 2020 would be perfect for me. I'd like to be hiking the Appalachian Trail next year but will wait a year if the economy goes south to take advantage of lower costs funds and stocks.

What if we have another 5-10 year period with negative/neutral returns? Will you keep putting off life after work?

Hiking the AT is really really cheap. Just saying.

I am thinking that maybe with a recession we should do more part time consulting. We also plan to do a lot of cheap stuff after FIRE.

Loren Ver

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #453 on: May 16, 2018, 06:56:12 AM »
A recession late 2018 and 2019 with recovery in 2020 would be perfect for me. I'd like to be hiking the Appalachian Trail next year but will wait a year if the economy goes south to take advantage of lower costs funds and stocks.

What if we have another 5-10 year period with negative/neutral returns? Will you keep putting off life after work?

Hiking the AT is really really cheap. Just saying.



I am thinking that maybe with a recession we should do more part time consulting. We also plan to do a lot of cheap stuff after FIRE.

DH and I are also hoping for a 2018/20119 recession.  We could really use a sale on stocks as this is our biggest contribution year. 

I am still wobbling on my exit.  OMY really kinda freaks me out, but as the high income earner with potential bonuses depending on departure dates, I'll need to be strategic in my exit. 

Some good news for me (bad for others...).  My company is becoming another company so when this officially happens the pensions will not longer be a thing, so they can be cashed out.  If I can have the company hold it until DH retires, then our income will be down and taxes wont eat as much.  Then this will act as our cash buffer for reducing our early sequence of return risks.  It should be about 1.5x our minimum yearly spend, so not a bad windfall. 

We are also expecting layoffs in September.  My site should not be in the cross hairs, BUT since i am the newest in the group, I could be the first one out regardless of site.  Then OMY becaome TLY (two less years). 

In other news, we have our eye on some land we really like. I may waste most of my work day spreadsheeting to arrive at the "land = X months of extra work" calculation so we can determine if its worth it.

I've been quiet both here and in my journal because we put an offer in on that land, it was accepted after minimal haggling, and we are in a 45 day holding pattern until closing. We close next Thursday. Suffice it to say, my spreadsheeting has been kind of thwarted because it's been such an odd 2 months worth of income and expenses. We're buying the land with cash so I reduced our 401K front-loading to minimize the amount of investments we'd have to pull to fund it. After the dust settles and we have a few months of normal paychecks and expenses, I'll be able to recast our FIRE date. No OMY here hopefully. We're still targeting 2020, it may just be fall versus spring now, because now all of a sudden we're talking about getting a tractor and drawing up plans for our pole barn and crap haha. This land is part of the end-game though, so we're pretty stoked.

Glad you got the land without much haggle!


I recently updated in the 2019 FIRE cohort, as I am between two camps.
We are currently pretty well on schedule to reach or FIRE in 2020 stash at the end of 2018. If we manage, 2019 only needs to provide enough income to cover for itself, so minimum 25% of our normal nett income.



That's not a bad place to be!

LV

DreamFIRE

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #454 on: May 16, 2018, 12:04:16 PM »

I'm looking to June 2019 for now, but if the economy starts to go to shit and my investments drop over the next year, I might have to join the 2020 cohorts.  I'm slowly moving to a more conservative AA, but I can only take so much of a hit before I will OMY, which is sometimes tempting even if the stash is doing well.  I'm still planning for 2019 for as long as I can - at least FIRE doesn't seem so far off that way.

How about doing OMY part time working?

Yeah, I've posted about that in the 2019 thread in the past, IIRC.  The thing is, I don't know if that will be an option where I work now, and I would take a big wage cut to work somewhere else vs. the senior position I am in at my current company.  It's a big enough organization that positions are budgeted for, and I am the only one in my position, and it's a full time job.  They might be willing to keep me on in a very limited role until a new person is hired and for training the new employee, but beyond that, who knows, and I don't know how many hours of work I would get - they might try to phase me out as soon as possible.  I don't dare suggest the interest in it now, or they might do some emergency budgeting to bring in someone else to work with me well in advance of me wanting to FIRE/partime, and I certainly don't want to deal with that for an extended period of time while I'm still working full time.  So I won't really know if that's an option until I'm prepared to say I'm retiring from full time work.

DreamFIRE

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #455 on: May 16, 2018, 04:00:12 PM »
A recession late 2018 and 2019 with recovery in 2020 would be perfect for me. I'd like to be hiking the Appalachian Trail next year but will wait a year if the economy goes south to take advantage of lower costs funds and stocks.

What if we have another 5-10 year period with negative/neutral returns? Will you keep putting off life after work?

Hiking the AT is really really cheap. Just saying.

I am thinking that maybe with a recession we should do more part time consulting. We also plan to do a lot of cheap stuff after FIRE.

DH and I are also hoping for a 2018/20119 recession.  We could really use a sale on stocks as this is our biggest contribution year. 

Whether I would personally benefit from a recession or not, I would never wish on one to come.  I'm thinking about the greater good, but it can take a long time for stocks to recover.  We have had lost decades of no real gains in the past, and they leave even more people hurting as they lose jobs, drops in business, not finding jobs, etc.  A recession is sure to come, they always do, but I hope it's still years away.

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #456 on: May 17, 2018, 08:29:01 AM »
958 calendar days to go.  A lot is changing for me in those days, so I'm not positive about my FIRE date.  It could be earlier if the new boss I have in Jan 2019 is an asshole or it could be later if things take a turn for the positive and I begin to enjoy my job again.  Also, it looks like my BF will be moving in next year and I just don't know how that will effect things.  Health insurance is also a concern.  But I'm sticking with 12/31/2020 for now.

BlueMR2

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #457 on: May 17, 2018, 05:37:28 PM »
Currently looking at May 2020.  We'll see though.  Will adjust based on how work is going.  If I'm having fun I'll stick around longer...

Rcc

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #458 on: May 20, 2018, 07:06:31 PM »
Iím hoping to land my lawn dart in May 2020 as well. Macro factors that I share with others, mean my FI and RE may be split:

1. State of healthcare here in the US
2. My DSs progress on finishing college
3. Sequencing whether DW or I RE first
4. Do I take last year or OMY to eliminate mortgage then (not now)

Good news, FI should land in 2020, making these factors easier to solve.