Author Topic: 2020 FIRE Cohort  (Read 105626 times)

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #350 on: January 18, 2018, 09:21:16 AM »
I'm on the fence between 7/25/18 & 7/25/20, so I'm reading both cohorts but should be making a final decision soon. We can afford for me to FIRE this summer (DH will continue to work), but we won't be able to remodel our house. If I stay until 2020, we can remodel. I'm leaning in the direction of staying, but waiting to get all of the final numbers in to understand exactly what would be required. If I stay for a few more years, I will likely get another big promotion, and therefore it may be early in 2020. Fingers crossed!

I think remodelling the house is one of the things you want to be able to do from time to time, using a lot of your own effort instead of buying it from others. I think the budget should open up for a big purchase every 5 years or so.

Wouldn`t that be a nice suprise Linda:

-Recalculates the numbers: Oh, we can FIRE now.

My FIRE spending budget (simply divided by 10 to make it look more like dollars, but not very correct) was 50.000$ a year. In 2017 we spent 28.000$. If I change my FIRE budget to 40.000$ a year, we currently have enough stash to FIRE in 2019. But as mentioned above, it would be nice to have room in the budget for a bigger purchase every couple of years. So I am pretty tempted to still keep it high. Maybe reduce it to 45.000$, but not much below it. I think 2017 was an exceptionally cheap year with no car repairs. We cannot count on it always being so cheap.

In my spreadsheet I can vary the Safe withdrawal rate. Originally I had 4%, but I recently changed it to 3,6%. There is also some slack. I still think that with 3,6%, we can reduce our hours in 2019 and FIRE completely in 2020. For the moment this is the plan, but it could change depending on the stash we manage to build in 2018 and not in the least what we manage to sell our house for.

House in Norwegian crowns divided by 10: purchased for 790.000$.
In my spreadsheet I count on selling it for a nett 700.000$, losing almost 100.000$, as I don't want to be optimistic. And I am afraid we might have paid too much for the house when we bought it. If things turn out more optimistically and we are left with 800.000$ after a sale, we sudden have earned 2 years of FIRE budget.

And we have the prospect of receiving a windfall in the future, the size of it depending on how long the parents live. We do not need it to FIRE, so I hope they will live as long as their health allows them.

Agreed. We can do a smaller rebuild within the existing budget, but this is close to a full tear down. Only reason we wouldn't tear down is because it's about a 10-15% savings to remodel as is, plus the cost of rent, which would run us close to $60K.

Loren Ver

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #351 on: January 24, 2018, 05:37:58 AM »


We had a pretty fantastic year in terms of our own personal savings and the out-of-control market gains. We didn't quite pull off a 65% savings rate but I'm certainly not unhappy about 63.8%. It's good to have stretch goals.

It's interesting to poke around in the 2018 FIRE Cohort thread. There is a lot of OMY happening over there due to the market run-up and uncertainty about ACA. I'm sure we'll have our own slew of worries when 2020 rolls around.

I hope you are all having a great new year!



Haha!   OMY.  We are wobbling between one more year and one less year.  The exponential curve is nuts.  It makes it hard to get off the roller coaster.

Question for you all -

How many of you are set on a date and how many a nest egg number (and the number should be hit around xx date)?    I know the two are linked, but there seems to be different mind sets between the two.

LV

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #352 on: January 24, 2018, 05:52:00 AM »

Question for you all -

How many of you are set on a date and how many a nest egg number (and the number should be hit around xx date)?    I know the two are linked, but there seems to be different mind sets between the two.

LV

We have a nest number. The number is calculated for starting to work part time in 2019 and completely FIRE in 2020. But if I change the income for those years in my spreadsheet, the nest number will change.

On big variable in our FIRE date is what price we will get for our clown house when we start to sell it. It is currently not for sale. I am not sure if we should try selling this spring of wait for another year. There is an issue with it that we want to previous owner to pay for. This needs to go to court and will take time. I think it needs to be in place before selling it. Otherwise we need to inform new buyers of a lackful drainage around the house and a wet cellar room.
It is definitively best to sell our house in the summer half year, because it is so easy to get stuck in the steep hills in winter (with a normal, not 4x4, car which most potential buyer have).

If we could sell the house for what we paid for it, we are well set for FIRE. In my spreadsheet I have counted for a loss of $100.000, to make sure we are not too optimistic. But if we can't make even that amount, we'll have a problem and will need to work longer, either full time or part time for more years.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #353 on: January 24, 2018, 05:57:00 AM »

Question for you all -

How many of you are set on a date and how many a nest egg number (and the number should be hit around xx date)?    I know the two are linked, but there seems to be different mind sets between the two.

LV

We have a nest number. The number is calculated for starting to work part time in 2019 and completely FIRE in 2020. But if I change the income for those years in my spreadsheet, the nest number will change.

On big variable in our FIRE date is what price we will get for our clown house when we start to sell it. It is currently not for sale. I am not sure if we should try selling this spring of wait for another year. There is an issue with it that we want to previous owner to pay for. This needs to go to court and will take time. I think it needs to be in place before selling it. Otherwise we need to inform new buyers of a lackful drainage around the house and a wet cellar room.
It is definitively best to sell our house in the summer half year, because it is so easy to get stuck in the steep hills in winter (with a normal, not 4x4, car which most potential buyer have).

If we could sell the house for what we paid for it, we are well set for FIRE. In my spreadsheet I have counted for a loss of $100.000, to make sure we are not too optimistic. But if we can't make even that amount, we'll have a problem and will need to work longer, either full time or part time for more years.

I have both.

April 1 2020, regardless of what the stache is at by then

Or

$500k Net Worth, if I magically hit that prior to April 1 2020, I will jump ship at that time.


Canadian Ben

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #354 on: January 24, 2018, 06:47:55 AM »
I have a hard date: july 25th 2020, because I have access to a ton of services/expense saving options for making it to that date. (And since I`m getting there at very high SR, it`s pretty much the time I will hit my stash number +/- 5%, even if the market goes down.)

But If I were to find a 250,000$ bill on the ground, I`d fire today. (After bringing it to the bank)

TheContinentalOp

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #355 on: January 24, 2018, 06:57:50 AM »
I hit my "low" stash number this week. If our office gets hit by a meteor, or our COO gets run over by a bus, or they just get tired of my face and fire me, I won't look for a new job, I'll just FIRE.

But I am still looking at Friday, March 20, 2020 to retire on my own terms.

tyd450

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #356 on: January 24, 2018, 10:22:14 AM »

Question for you all -

How many of you are set on a date and how many a nest egg number (and the number should be hit around xx date)?    I know the two are linked, but there seems to be different mind sets between the two.

LV

We have a nest number. The number is calculated for starting to work part time in 2019 and completely FIRE in 2020. But if I change the income for those years in my spreadsheet, the nest number will change.

On big variable in our FIRE date is what price we will get for our clown house when we start to sell it. It is currently not for sale. I am not sure if we should try selling this spring of wait for another year. There is an issue with it that we want to previous owner to pay for. This needs to go to court and will take time. I think it needs to be in place before selling it. Otherwise we need to inform new buyers of a lackful drainage around the house and a wet cellar room.
It is definitively best to sell our house in the summer half year, because it is so easy to get stuck in the steep hills in winter (with a normal, not 4x4, car which most potential buyer have).

If we could sell the house for what we paid for it, we are well set for FIRE. In my spreadsheet I have counted for a loss of $100.000, to make sure we are not too optimistic. But if we can't make even that amount, we'll have a problem and will need to work longer, either full time or part time for more years.

I have both.

April 1 2020, regardless of what the stache is at by then

Or

$500k Net Worth, if I magically hit that prior to April 1 2020, I will jump ship at that time.




You're just not gonna go?

Yeah.

Won't you get fired?

I don't know, but I really don't like it, and, uh, I'm not gonna go.

So you're gonna quit?

Nuh-uh. Not really. Uh... I'm just gonna stop going.



"There are thousands and thousands of people out there leading lives of quiet, screaming desperation, where they work long, hard hours at jobs they hate to enable them to buy things they donít need to impress people they donít like" - Nigel Marsh

Canadian Ben

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #357 on: January 24, 2018, 10:34:37 AM »
If only... I'd be fined. (Military wouldn`t allow that sort of shenanigans)

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #358 on: January 24, 2018, 12:36:18 PM »

You're just not gonna go?

Yeah.

Won't you get fired?

I don't know, but I really don't like it, and, uh, I'm not gonna go.

So you're gonna quit?

Nuh-uh. Not really. Uh... I'm just gonna stop going.

I watched that movie for inspiration when I took on a new role and my boss got fired a few days later.

It's been 4 months and still no boss, I've been averaging 1-2 days a week in the office.

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #359 on: January 25, 2018, 11:08:22 AM »
12/31/2020. It's the first date I'm eligible to take my pension and get partial retiree health benefits.  However, I will be getting a new boss and if they decide to reorganize or if things become unbearable, I have FU money.

robtown

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #360 on: January 25, 2018, 08:39:00 PM »
I pushed my FI out to the end of March 2020 from 2019 a year ago.  For me it is too late to RE, since I am 61.   My DW and I live in a HCOL area and our estimated monthly expenses in retirement would make many here gasp.   Fortunately, the DW's pension and my social security will cover most of the base expenses.  My 401k will cover unexpected expenses, better food, and entertainment/fun.   Now to convince my wife that 2 condos (one empty  at any time), each the cost of our soon paid-off house,  are not a viable option in retirement.    I'd rather have one nice single family home and rent in other locations for a couple weeks or a month.

As each week that passes it seems that the 2020 date is no closer.  Maybe I need to install a countdown timer.

princeradar

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #361 on: January 25, 2018, 08:57:46 PM »
I have a target date of December 1st 2020.  I could probably go now if we sold the house and moved to a LCOL area but the wife likes where we live and truth be told so do I.  If all goes well by 2020, we should be able to cover our living expenses plus a nice cushion.  Wife might continue to work for a few years as although she is frugal and likes to save she's not quite on board yet with the whole FIRE concept.

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #362 on: January 26, 2018, 12:25:31 AM »
I have a target date of December 1st 2020.  I could probably go now if we sold the house and moved to a LCOL area but the wife likes where we live and truth be told so do I.  If all goes well by 2020, we should be able to cover our living expenses plus a nice cushion.  Wife might continue to work for a few years as although she is frugal and likes to save she's not quite on board yet with the whole FIRE concept.

But I'm pretty certain your wife will appreciate the FI concept when you have reached it. And maybe she will understand that there is a thing to say for extended vacations and not working fulltime. My DH is also a bit sceptic about being fulltime free, so he is thinking about having a small consultancy company.

Rubyvroom

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #363 on: January 26, 2018, 05:09:27 PM »
How many of you are set on a date and how many a nest egg number (and the number should be hit around xx date)?    I know the two are linked, but there seems to be different mind sets between the two.

We have a number we want to be close to and a general idea of when that may occur, but our dates are set for specific reasons. If markets tank before then, we'll reevaluate the timing.

We have a free auto lease through my SO's employer and the lease ends October 2019, so that will be my SO's FIRE date so we don't need to worry about extending the lease or purchasing a second vehicle. He'll be getting our house ready to sell that fall/winter for a potential spring listing, and he'll be covered under my health insurance.

My date will be June 5, 2020. I chose that date for a number of reasons: 1) our wedding anniversary is June 11, so I want to FIRE before then, 2) our bonuses pay out in mid-April, so I won't FIRE before that check clears the bank, 3) our vacation payout is based on your current wage, and raises go out mid-April, so I don't want to give notice before then and risk getting a shitty raise, 4) I have to give a month notice at my level, so that puts me to at least mid-May, 5) a colleague on my team takes the last two weeks of Ramadan as vacation so I intend to work through her vacation and allow a bit of overlap after she returns so she isn't scrambling, which pushes me out till after Memorial Day, 6) my health insurance covers me through the entire month I terminate, so earlier in the month is obviously a better time to quit, which makes early June appealing. So my plan is to put in my notice either Friday May 1 or Monday May 4 and give 5 weeks notice, because that colleague of mine that celebrates Ramadan is a close friend and I really want her to get her vacation time before things get hectic.

Side note: have you all noticed the gd market run up this month? I don't even want to talk about it, it seems completely unreal. It's like, 3 months worth of my estimated annual gains in one month. I love it but damn it makes me nervous!

Freedomin5

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #364 on: January 26, 2018, 06:26:25 PM »
Question for you all -

How many of you are set on a date and how many a nest egg number (and the number should be hit around xx date)?    I know the two are linked, but there seems to be different mind sets between the two.

LV

We have a number, because our earnings fluctuate from year to year, so it's hard to set a hard date. There is also no benefit for either of us to make it to a certain date.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #365 on: January 27, 2018, 06:15:48 AM »
Side note: have you all noticed the gd market run up this month? I don't even want to talk about it, it seems completely unreal. It's like, 3 months worth of my estimated annual gains in one month. I love it but damn it makes me nervous!

Yup!! My returns since December 1st = my entire 2017 spending (~$24k)

While I expect a correction to happen sooner than later (long bull run, high CAPE, yadda yadda), I'm not sure if I would prefer for it to happen prior to April 1, 2020, or once I am on Sabbatical/Semi FIRE.

On one hand, if the market crashes before my date, I might get spooked and do OMY (which I don't want to do).

On the other hand, if the market crashes after my date, I might not enjoy my time off as much knowing that years of savings have been wiped out in a matter of days (weeks, months?) and anxiety about finding work in a down economic cycle might worry me even further.

tipster350

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #366 on: January 28, 2018, 02:54:46 PM »
This market run-up is crazy. I've "made" so much money lately. It is freaking me out. As I will be older than most here when I retire, I'm particularly concerned about sequence of return risk. I have less ability to absorb too much bad luck with timing. I might get caught up in the OMY syndrome to pad the stash. I'm also planning to have a few years cash available, which has its good points and its bad points.

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #367 on: January 29, 2018, 12:38:33 AM »
This market run-up is crazy. I've "made" so much money lately. It is freaking me out. As I will be older than most here when I retire, I'm particularly concerned about sequence of return risk. I have less ability to absorb too much bad luck with timing. I might get caught up in the OMY syndrome to pad the stash. I'm also planning to have a few years cash available, which has its good points and its bad points.

Yes, current return on index funds is almost too good to be true and I also have the impression it can't last forever.
On the other hand, we know that the robots are coming and are going to do everything cheaper. This means more profit for the companies (good index fund results). On the other hand don't we know how bad the loss of jobs will be and how that will stop.
We also have the very expensive challenge of climate change/more extreme weather. Countries and cities will have to do a lot to protect themselves from flood, hurricanes and draught. That will cost society, but maybe it will generate many building projects and a good economy for the index funds. It is quite impossible to predict the financial future.
My thoughts are that bonds generate so little profit for the moment, that I prefer to keep all my stash in index funds, apart from what I have in my house. If we would ever get higher interest on a bank account, I would keep more in the bank (depending on inflation).
« Last Edit: February 01, 2018, 10:01:24 AM by Linda_Norway »

Rubyvroom

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #368 on: February 01, 2018, 08:39:34 AM »
Just stop it with these January numbers. The market came to its senses a bit the last few days, but still. That was the single largest monthly gain (in real dollars and %) I've seen in over two years. It's going to be an interesting few years for this group I think. It's fun to pop into the 2018 and 2019 FIRE threads too. Lots of OMY conversations as no one seems to trust this market.

My SO managed to sneakily increase his pay by a significant amount as well, so our January savings rate was 75%! He was salaried with a commission and worked a ton of OT and was not happy at all. He told his bosses back in October that he was going to put in his notice and be done at the first of the year unless they reduced his management responsibilities and moved him off the commission plan and on to an hourly set wage at a "lower" rate (lower if he only works 40 hours). He gave them months to figure it out. They procrastinated, and when the first of the year rolled around, they hadn't come up with an alternative plan so they just gave him exactly what he requested. His first month he put in a pretty standard amount of OT (nearly 40 hours total) which amounted to a raise of about 16%! He's no longer despising all the OT - he's offering to work more of it LOL. It's nice to see that shift in his mindset. He seems much healthier now that he's deciding to work OT for fat checks rather than getting stuck working OT for free.

Meanwhile, I have a cush job but the cracks are starting to show with our leadership so I keep one eye on job postings, hoping I can find something to squeeze out more pay to shorten our timeline. It's proving difficult to find anything, so I think I have to just settle in here. I'm assuming the rest of you are getting quite antsy too. It's hard to be on a short-ish timeline, but still too long to do anything but bide our time.

Soon we will catch you, elusive FIRE squirrel, soon....

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #369 on: February 01, 2018, 12:36:46 PM »
Jan-2018 highlights:

- We listed our "current HCOL home" for sale and were under contract for above-asking price within 30 hours!
- Much of this month has revolved around preparing to move to our rental home.  This will yield a significant annual savings going forward.
- Put a big 'ol asterisk next to our progress (or lack thereof) for this month.  Savings, home value & market performance were great, but ...
- Given the start of a new year, we bit the bullet & adjusted expectations down (to $0) on a high-risk start-up investment from a few years back.  This offset most of our monthly progress gain, but our NW now represents a more risk-appropriate total.  Feels right.  Maybe we'll get surprised down the road, but I'm no longer carrying that "value" on our books.
- Stretch goal countdown is now @ 15 months; our more realistic countdown goal is now @ 26 months (01-Apr-2020)

EOY 2015: 56.2%
EOY 2016: 70.6%
EOY 2017: 78.6%

JAN 2018:  78.8%

FIREby2021

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #370 on: February 01, 2018, 02:23:40 PM »
1064 days left...hoping the impending change of leadership at work doesn't accelerate my fire plans as that will be a little bit more challenging for me financially.

robtown

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #371 on: February 01, 2018, 04:55:58 PM »
1064 days left...hoping the impending change of leadership at work doesn't accelerate my fire plans as that will be a little bit more challenging for me financially.

790 calendar days,  485 work days left

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #372 on: February 02, 2018, 12:47:22 AM »
Jan-2018 highlights:

- We listed our "current HCOL home" for sale and were under contract for above-asking price within 30 hours!
- Much of this month has revolved around preparing to move to our rental home.  This will yield a significant annual savings going forward.
- Put a big 'ol asterisk next to our progress (or lack thereof) for this month.  Savings, home value & market performance were great, but ...
- Given the start of a new year, we bit the bullet & adjusted expectations down (to $0) on a high-risk start-up investment from a few years back.  This offset most of our monthly progress gain, but our NW now represents a more risk-appropriate total.  Feels right.  Maybe we'll get surprised down the road, but I'm no longer carrying that "value" on our books.
- Stretch goal countdown is now @ 15 months; our more realistic countdown goal is now @ 26 months (01-Apr-2020)

EOY 2015: 56.2%
EOY 2016: 70.6%
EOY 2017: 78.6%

JAN 2018:  78.8%

FIREby2021

Exciting to sell your house to cash in your FIRE savings. That is what we are going to do too in a few years. Our LCOL community is going to be merged together with a HCOL community in 2020, so we wait until then before we sell the house. We think buyers might be willing to pay more for the house, when the community has the more attractive name, as we currentlÝy live only 1 km from the community border.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2018, 11:27:24 AM by Linda_Norway »

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #373 on: February 02, 2018, 08:16:35 AM »
1064 days left...hoping the impending change of leadership at work doesn't accelerate my fire plans as that will be a little bit more challenging for me financially.

790 calendar days,  485 work days left

I need to calculate work days :)

FIPurpose

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #374 on: February 04, 2018, 12:58:30 PM »
When I first joined this forum, I remember setting my FIRE date to 2020. I began living my FIRE life in 2017. We took a road trip, and we started volunteering which covered all our expenses.

Unfortunately that came to an end recently. Our volunteering had a bump in the road and now we're readjusting again. We'll go live in Portugal for a few months, get Tefl certificate and go teach English somewhere. Likely UAE or somewhere that pays well so that we can fully FIRE.

But I wouldn't trade it for anything. I've started to adventure around the globe. And I've been able to do it without worrying about money. Now I do have to find work here an there, but honestly, I'd still pick this life over the office that I was in.

I know this thread is probably a bit older people, but I've become an advocate for living the life you want now because your life likely involves earning more or spending less than you're planning.
My journey going from partial FI to Peace Corps to the final push to full FI:
Journal

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #375 on: February 05, 2018, 05:52:11 AM »
In my FIRE spreadsheet, I made made an estimate of what we can be left with after selling our house. My conservative estimate is 12% lower than what we paid for the house 2,5 years ago.

There is a pretty similar looking house to ours for sale since autumn, just a bit lower on the hill. We can see it from our house. Their sales price is 20% above what we paid for our house, which I think is insanely high. I have been following the sales of this house, as I would very much like to sell our house for a similar sum. If we could get a similar price, we could FIRE several years earlier, like right now.
But there has been no response to the house for sale. At the moment the advertisement is passive.

There is also another different style high-price house for sale in the same street as that other house for about the same price as what we paid for our house. Also that house has not been sold.

We just has a bit of a financial dip in Oslo, mostly because of stricter rules for buying a second apartment as an investment object. But I am a bit afraid this dip is spreading and that expensive houses in my region are going very slowly. For the moment I just stick to my original conservative estimate and hope that the prices won't sink under that amount.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #376 on: February 05, 2018, 03:53:32 PM »
I wonder how many folks timeline is affected by the current correction in progress?

I had about 1 year of living expenses wiped out in the past 5-6 trading days.

Canadian Ben

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #377 on: February 05, 2018, 05:14:12 PM »
It's still up 20% from 2017... On a longer timeframe this 2-4% pull back is nothing.

DeanHedlund

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #378 on: February 05, 2018, 06:05:56 PM »
It's still up 20% from 2017... On a longer timeframe this 2-4% pull back is nothing.
Yep

Rubyvroom

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #379 on: February 05, 2018, 06:28:06 PM »
The 2018 cohort seems to be holding it together so I'm not going to worry just yet. Though we are facing another potential government shutdown this week. I'm sure that will go swimmingly. It's good when your government is living paycheck to paycheck, right?

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #380 on: February 05, 2018, 06:46:00 PM »
It's still up 20% from 2017... On a longer timeframe this 2-4% pull back is nothing.

Dow would need to gain 9.3% to return to all time high.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #381 on: February 05, 2018, 06:46:38 PM »
And we are likely going another 10%+ lower before any real bull resumes.

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #382 on: February 05, 2018, 06:51:28 PM »
If we drop another .7% then at least we will have the "correction" everyone has been predicting and maybe things will settle down.

Canadian Ben

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #383 on: February 05, 2018, 08:35:49 PM »
It's still up 20% from 2017... On a longer timeframe this 2-4% pull back is nothing.

Dow would need to gain 9.3% to return to all time high.

Hadn't seen today's extra downwards numbers. Meh, 2020 is a longgg way away. It's still an excellent period so far! (I'm still buying, so keep going down!)

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #384 on: February 05, 2018, 09:51:09 PM »
Today one of the "financial experts" in the paper said that the market might not recover from this correction. He himself did not have stock at this moment and didn't plan to buy any. He advised people to not buy new stock.

Rubyvroom

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #385 on: February 06, 2018, 05:29:30 AM »
As an actionable item, it feels like a good time to brush up on tax-loss harvesting concepts. Fortunately, I think the FIFO rule was dropped out of the final iteration of the tax plan, but I have some reading up to do to understand if anything else impacted it.

dreams_and_discoveries

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #386 on: February 06, 2018, 11:46:12 AM »
Am I the only one who was hoping it would come now, when I'm still happy working, investing every month and not looking to give up work?

I'd much rather ride a bear market now than in 2020.....although I will say that sequence of return risk is starting to look very real to me now.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #387 on: February 06, 2018, 12:36:22 PM »
Am I the only one who was hoping it would come now, when I'm still happy working, investing every month and not looking to give up work?

I'd much rather ride a bear market now than in 2020.....although I will say that sequence of return risk is starting to look very real to me now.

Yes, I scooped up 12 shares of VTI this afternoon, and have a limit order for another 13 if it drops to $130/share.

Unfortunately I already maxed out my Roth and put $5.5k into taxable on January 2nd.


Canadian Ben

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #388 on: February 06, 2018, 01:25:04 PM »
I'm out of buy money until 2.5k gets transfered from my bank to Questrade (Been over 3 months). I'm quite content with the market calming the hell down. (Technical jargon, hope everyone can follow)

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #389 on: February 06, 2018, 01:50:13 PM »
I'm glad that this there are has been somewhat of a drop.  Helps me see how my allocation will react.  I'd rather face a correction of downturn before I FIRE rather than right after.

I kept with my plan and put in a buy order yesterday for my every other week 457b contribution.

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #390 on: February 07, 2018, 12:17:19 AM »
I now regret a bit that I have been buying stock steadily the whole of 2017. Bing buying might have been a slightly smarter strategy. Although, my DH binge-bought a bunch of stock after the first drop, but was still too early and dropped another 4,5% after that.

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #391 on: February 07, 2018, 12:58:16 PM »
I now regret a bit that I have been buying stock steadily the whole of 2017. Bing buying might have been a slightly smarter strategy. Although, my DH binge-bought a bunch of stock after the first drop, but was still too early and dropped another 4,5% after that.

You might be referencing Norway or Europe specific market or some other specific element to your experience.  But VTI (total US market) and VXUS (total international market) over last 12 months from today are up 16% and 18%, respectively, and have only dropped to back to the values at the start of January/end of December so your strategy of buying throughout 2017 was spot on correct.  If you would have waited you would have missed out on average gains of 8-9% plus dividends (assuming investments were made equally throughout the year).  So your husband is the one who lost as he is buying in at prices far higher than what you did even after the drop. 

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #392 on: February 10, 2018, 10:55:22 AM »
I "timed the market" by investing my HSA into the market, where it was previously just sitting in a low interest MM account with my HSA provider.

I purchased $9000 of VTSAX and $5000 of VBTLX
65% Stock/ 35% bond

Purposefully on the conservative side since these are funds I may actually want to use for medical emergencies.

Further monthly contributions will go toward the stock portion as I DCA that with the account balance getting larger.

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #393 on: February 10, 2018, 01:23:01 PM »
I now regret a bit that I have been buying stock steadily the whole of 2017. Bing buying might have been a slightly smarter strategy. Although, my DH binge-bought a bunch of stock after the first drop, but was still too early and dropped another 4,5% after that.

You might be referencing Norway or Europe specific market or some other specific element to your experience.  But VTI (total US market) and VXUS (total international market) over last 12 months from today are up 16% and 18%, respectively, and have only dropped to back to the values at the start of January/end of December so your strategy of buying throughout 2017 was spot on correct.  If you would have waited you would have missed out on average gains of 8-9% plus dividends (assuming investments were made equally throughout the year).  So your husband is the one who lost as he is buying in at prices far higher than what you did even after the drop.

On Friday I listened to a Norwegian podcast about how to invest during this correction. Amongst the usual strategy they also mentioned an investigation that has been done. Someone has calculated the differences in profit between a person who has always been bought stock at the right moment, compared to someone who has always bought stock at the wrong moment, during all time there were ever stocks. The right moment person had on average received 11% profit. The wrong moment person had on average received 8% profit. So in the long run, it doesn't really matter that much when you buy stock. Even though 3% is a noticeable difference, the 8% is still very good.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2018, 10:46:48 AM by Linda_Norway »

markbike528CBX

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #394 on: February 10, 2018, 02:25:21 PM »
RE: market timing.    Not sure if this is the original source... but

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/

In other words, what Linda_Norway said in the immediate previous post.

On the other hand, it is irritating to invest right before a crash.   
Done it twice, best investment moves I have made.



FireLane

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #395 on: February 17, 2018, 02:03:32 PM »
I have a feeling my FIRE plan is about to be accelerated!

Mrs. FL and I send our son (18 m.o.) to an in-home daycare in our neighborhood two or three days a week and trade off working from home on the other days. We just found out that the woman who runs the daycare is planning to retire and close the business in June.

We could look for another daycare, but this one was very affordable and super convenient. We're not likely to find another place that's such a good deal. Plus we both feel kind of bad about forcing our son to bond with a new caregiver.

We're not at the FIRE level yet, but we're definitely at the FU level. We're seriously considering whether, instead of looking for a new daycare, one or both of us should just go part-time and take care of him ourselves. It would lower our savings rate, but it wouldn't be a financial hardship.

Richmond 2020

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #396 on: February 17, 2018, 11:12:35 PM »
Okay iím joining the 2020 cohort. Put me down for the 31st of December 2020.

Between the wife and I we currently have $925k in Super which we can start accessing in 13 years time. Outside super we have $185k invested, a house worth $1.1m with $130k owing it. And a half share in a small investment property that is currently paying for itís self and earning a small return.

Currently on a combined income of $270k and saving approximately 55%.

The goal for us is to pay off the house in the next 18 months and invest heavily in stocks outside Superannuation to fund the gap between fire and being able acces some of our superannuation.

The DW is 5 years younger so the plan is for me to fire and look after the home front (kids will be 6 and 8) while she works another 5 years approx (she actually likes work).

Iím looking forward to spending the 5 years from 2020 to 2025 buying investment properties, fixing them up and renting them out. Canít wait!


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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #397 on: February 18, 2018, 01:48:15 PM »

I know this thread is probably a bit older people, but I've become an advocate for living the life you want now because your life likely involves earning more or spending less than you're planning.

Don't know, older is relative.  Like some kind of linear scale :).  I'm 35, for many people that makes me older than dirt, but my grey hair doesn't show too much :).

I am glad you have found a balance that works for you.  DH and I have though about expating so we can be out now, but with only a little over 2 years left, hanging on, staying the course, and not fighting the momentum seems easiest.

As for the recent turn down.  I managed to scrape some money to throw into DHs Roth.  So my spreadsheet is a bit in the red but it will catch up.  The only sad part is since I have shrunk our standing cash pile I didn't have more to throw.


2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #398 on: February 19, 2018, 09:36:55 AM »
770 Days to go!
550 Weekdays to go!

Anyone scheming of ways to slide into the 2019 cohort? *raises hand*

Canadian Ben

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #399 on: February 19, 2018, 09:46:33 AM »
I'm planning on creating a camera company, then saying I'm moving into bitcoin.

That should save a year on FIRE right?