Author Topic: 2020 FIRE Cohort  (Read 119138 times)

Able was I ERE

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #300 on: November 23, 2017, 08:59:42 AM »
It's fewer days if you only count the ones you're working.

Lews Therin

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #301 on: November 23, 2017, 01:59:42 PM »
Keep that for the final year. this way it seems to go down really quick. <1000 days.

FIRE Artist

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #302 on: November 27, 2017, 12:14:42 PM »
Assuming 7% returns, I should hit my FIRE target in October 2020.  I will likely work out to the end of the calendar year to start my first year of FIRE in a low tax bracket because I intend to cash out my defined pension. and if I do so, I likely will have to take some of it as taxable income due to not having any sheltered savings room to dump it into. 

So, FIRE date December 31, 2020.  But, there is also a small benefit in my staying until end of January 2021, so I may jump into another class as the time comes up.

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #303 on: December 01, 2017, 02:18:08 PM »
Nov-2017 highlights:

- Despite tepid savings amounts for November (see more below), inching toward our goal
- As shared last month - HOLY MOLY, WE BOUGHT OUR FUTURE HOME in our "dream" L(ower)COL location!!
- Like many searches, we did not expect to find it this soon.  We had visited this area over several years during different seasons, so had a good idea of which "pockets" we preferred.
- It is our dream life-style location, and will be a downsize (right-size) for us, at 1/2 the cost of our current H(igher)COL home.
- We are working with a property manager to rent it out during the final ~2 year countdown. We plan for some cosmetic remodel work at that time.
- In alignment with one of our 2017 goals, we are taking steps to list our HCOL home for sale in January & shift to a rental.
- November savings were reduced, given closing costs for the new home & some minor costs to prepare our current home for sale.
- Stretch goal countdown now points to 17 months (2Q-2019); realistic countdown goal is at 26 months (1Q-2020)
- Given the direction we're heading to drastically reduce our housing costs, savings goals could accelerate throughout most of the timeline outlook.
- Had a quiet Thanksgiving with friends & enjoying the warm southern weather ... planning for visits up north to family during Christmas!
- Honestly, with all the excitement, my side-gig really hasn't benefitted from much focus.  More likely to get rolling in 2018.  TBD.
- A mental landmark (for me) was to achieve 80% progress toward our NW goal by EOY 2017.  We'd need quite a month to make that happen!

EOY 2016:  70.6%
JAN 2017:  70.0%
FEB 2017:  70.2%
MAR 2017: 71.2%
APR 2017   71.9%
MAY 2017   72.4%
JUN 2017:  73.3%
JUL 2017:   74.1%
AUG 2017:  74.1%
SEP 2017:  76.2%
OCT 2017:  77.3%
NOV 2017:  78.2%

FIREby2021
« Last Edit: December 02, 2017, 04:17:12 PM by FIREby2021 »

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #304 on: December 02, 2017, 01:20:38 AM »
Since yesterday afternoon I am seriously confused. This is due to my lack of using Excel and not being an accountant.

The issue is that I want to early retire in a self financed way, until DH will receive our pensions at the age of 67. So we don't need the 25 x spending level to last for the rest of our lives, but need to covers approx 20 years.

Because I had no idea how much we needed to FIRE, I made this big excel sheet. The first page contains parameters with tax brackes that I can change when the system changes. The next pages are a detailed calculation per year of how much stash we have, the 4% we can take out, the extra income we might have, the income tax to pay, the tax on stash, the tax on stock profits. And then the yearly income we want to reach. The goal is to find out how much we need to start with.

The fact is that when I opened the spreadshett yesterday, I needed 7,5 mil Norwegian crowns to FIRE in 2020. I looked better into some of the fomulas that I had used and find out I was using brutto income instead of nett income. So I corrected the formula. I got some dependency errors, because the height of the safe withdrawl amount depends on how much additional income we might have. Therefore the tax on the withdrawl amount is dependent on the withdrawl amount. Excel protested loudly and I solved it by paying the tax in the year after, just to get it working.

But the issue is that when I was finished with the formulas and had copied it to the pages up to 2030, the FIRE number increased to 9,5 mil! That would mean three years of extra work, at least.

Because I had faith in my new formulas, I copied the columns on to the other pages up to 1941 which is the last one. These had obviously not been updated for some time. While I was copying, the FIRE amount reduced all the way down to 5 mil! Which is something we have today as soon as we downsize.

As you understand I am slightly desperate. I need help with that sheet. I will again try to motivate DH to look at it in detail. He is better in Excel than I am. He is not an accountant either, but an engineer and generally good at math. I hope we will figure it out together.

I am also wondering whether I would benefit from hiring an economic expert to look at it. I am affraid that suck a person also would need to spend several hours on it and might charge 5000 crowns or more for such a job. But it would be benefitial to have someone confirming my calculations. Let's hope DH can igure it out.

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #305 on: December 02, 2017, 02:04:32 AM »
See my previous post where I no longer had a clue what my FIRE number was...

DH is a physicist and is good at making ball park figures. Just out of bed he made a ball park FIRE calculation based on the 4% rule and found out that 5 mil crowns is too low and 10 mil is too high. The truth must be somewhere in between and closer to the 10. So we are pretty much back to the original number of 7,5 or 8 mil. We'll take it from there and will look at it in more detail later.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #306 on: December 02, 2017, 10:38:26 AM »
Our NW cracked $425k yesterday, which is almost 9X our current annual expenses. I feel like we have a lot of ground to make up if we are to pull the plug in exactly 28 months.

The biggest unknown in our plan is inflation in the places we plan to geo-arbitrage to, and US healthcare laws.

Both of us have unstable jobs at currently shakey employers, if either of us loses income for even a period of a few months our plan get's thrown a bit off.


DeanHedlund

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #307 on: December 02, 2017, 03:20:10 PM »
Market up a lot, so it is was a good month. Still shooting for the same target date though, there are many considerations besides finance. Happy December!

Rubyvroom

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #308 on: December 11, 2017, 12:46:14 PM »
Out of curiosity, what % WR are folks here planning to retire with?

I have been pretty set on 4% for the past year but have started thinking about this differently in terms of our specific life situation:
  • We're in our late 30s and live in a metro area where we could find work quite easily, so I don't worry about our ability to generate income post-FIRE, if needed.
  • We don't have children (no plans to have them), which eliminates a lot of health care and other emergency spending.
  • Having no children also means we aren't very fixated on leaving behind a "legacy" and would be perfectly fine with spending down our assets before passing.
  • While many of our expenses are fixed, we've been successful in the past in ratcheting our variable expenses down if needed, so our spending is somewhat flexible.
  • We don't rent, so a large portion of our living (and overall) expenses will not increase with inflation.
  • We don't have any debt and don't anticipate incurring any new debt for continuing education or other purposes.
These realizations along with some detailed reading on "safe" withdrawal rates has caused me to consider 5-6% WR to start. In the "easy-math" scenario, where one would retire with $1M in assets and plan on withdrawing $40K per year (4%), I would now consider retiring with $667K - $800K (6%-5%), with the intention of the WR eventually reaching 4% or lower as the portfolio grows.

When one starts looking at various probabilities of death as you age (yes I know I'm being morbid), the probability of dying starts to greatly increase with age while your probability of going broke is really only declining by a few % points for each year you continue to accumulate. There's also quite a bit of information regarding the sequence of returns (specifically in the first 10 years) being far more important than your initial WR.

I end up down the rabbit hole in reading through all of the various Trinity Study outcomes and withdrawal strategies, and ask myself, am I just being lazy because it's getting harder to hold the line the closer we get to being done? Or is there merit here, that a 4% WR in nearly every historical scenario means we worked "too long," especially knowing the amount of flexibility we have to react to future scenarios?

I too try to remember context... that we're in the midst of a massive health care debate that could drastically reshape how early retirees approach health insurance and that we've enjoyed a long bull market. I also remember that my dad just recently had a heart attack in his late 50s that nearly ended him, and I get all YOLO feeling again.

Anyone care to share what their targeted % WR is and why? I'm wondering if anyone else has justified to themselves a lower or higher rate than the 4% "rule."

DeanHedlund

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #309 on: December 11, 2017, 01:21:48 PM »
Our target is 4%. We actually will initially do 2-3%. We travel a lot and we plan to do even more during RE. Initially we are going to target inexpensive areas (and hard activities) first, so we will need less. If that makes sense.

RedefinedHappiness

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #310 on: December 11, 2017, 03:05:15 PM »
4% but with a lot of margin/buffers. Not counting SS, not counting some other assets, etc. And still I might decide to work longer once I get to that 4% number.  Playing it by ear because I have no idea how I will feel at that point. Will it decrease stress level and make me feel ok about working longer?  Or will it make me even less tolerable of the corporate BS? 

I can understand how you might target 5% though.

BlueMR2

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #311 on: December 11, 2017, 04:03:49 PM »
My estimate of no decrease in spending would put us at 3.5% already, and with expected savings included is 2.97% right now, but I still haven't pulled the trigger.  I feel like we've got one of those worst case scenario sequence of returns coming up in the next couple of years, combined with a healthcare system that continues to spiral out of control.  And my plan was to stick it out until 2020 anyways...

FireLane

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #312 on: December 11, 2017, 07:46:33 PM »
I'm aiming for a sub-4% WR. Not something crazy low like 3%, but maybe 3.75% or 3.5%, something that gives us a comfortable cushion.

There are a couple of reasons for this. DW and I live in a HCOL area and we're not planning to move, at least not soon. We have one kid and haven't ruled out having more. Most of all, I'm expecting the future to be turbulent, and I want to have a buffer that covers us against unforeseeable shocks: a health care death spiral, massive economic upheaval due to climate change, Japan-style market stagnation, who knows what else?

I'm being pessimistic, I know. In most scenarios, we'll do just fine and end up with a ridiculous pile of money to give away when we're old and gray. But that's OK with me. I have a job that I don't hate, and in terms of career length, the difference between stashing to 4% and 3.5% isn't as much as you'd think.

ixtap

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #313 on: December 11, 2017, 07:53:21 PM »
I'm aiming for a sub-4% WR. Not something crazy low like 3%, but maybe 3.75% or 3.5%, something that gives us a comfortable cushion.

There are a couple of reasons for this. DW and I live in a HCOL area and we're not planning to move, at least not soon. We have one kid and haven't ruled out having more. Most of all, I'm expecting the future to be turbulent, and I want to have a buffer that covers us against unforeseeable shocks: a health care death spiral, massive economic upheaval due to climate change, Japan-style market stagnation, who knows what else?

I'm being pessimistic, I know. In most scenarios, we'll do just fine and end up with a ridiculous pile of money to give away when we're old and gray. But that's OK with me. I have a job that I don't hate, and in terms of career length, the difference between stashing to 4% and 3.5% isn't as much as you'd think.

For many of these reasons, we have calculated our number based on our spending before consciously cutting back. This leaves us a little room to stretch into at some future date if we don't enjoy living like hobos for as long as we expect to.

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #314 on: December 11, 2017, 09:00:03 PM »
We are aiming for about 5%, but it becomes 4% once we figure in social security. Additionally, we have some extra buffers and I would be very surprised if we earn no money throughout retirement.

scantee

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #315 on: December 11, 2017, 09:55:21 PM »
Well I think I'm going to jump in and join this thread. Up until recently I thought my FIRE date was around 7 to 8 years in the future. That length of time seems so very far in the future, and so much can change in that amount of time, that I was hesitant to commit to a firm date. However, I recently got a new job that comes with a hefty pay raise. Yes! My increased pay will cut down my time to FIRE substantially. I'm now comfortable setting a goal of three years: December 31, 2020.

I don't know that I'll fully FIRE in 2020, I might want to continue to consult or work part-time in some way. I do hope to be done with full-time work by then. I'm currently 65% of my way to my FIRE goal.

I'll need moral support to make sure I don't succumb to lifestyle creep. My new salary is high enough that I'll likely be able to enjoy a few more niceties while also saving loads of money. I just need to make sure I don't let those little niceties to become big, pointless expenses...

Here we go!

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #316 on: December 12, 2017, 12:38:23 AM »
Well I think I'm going to jump in and join this thread. Up until recently I thought my FIRE date was around 7 to 8 years in the future. That length of time seems so very far in the future, and so much can change in that amount of time, that I was hesitant to commit to a firm date. However, I recently got a new job that comes with a hefty pay raise. Yes! My increased pay will cut down my time to FIRE substantially. I'm now comfortable setting a goal of three years: December 31, 2020.

I don't know that I'll fully FIRE in 2020, I might want to continue to consult or work part-time in some way. I do hope to be done with full-time work by then. I'm currently 65% of my way to my FIRE goal.

I'll need moral support to make sure I don't succumb to lifestyle creep. My new salary is high enough that I'll likely be able to enjoy a few more niceties while also saving loads of money. I just need to make sure I don't let those little niceties to become big, pointless expenses...

Here we go!

Congrats with the new job and better pay. As you just newly required it, you haven't fallen for lifestyle creep just yet. Before you buy a new nicety, think about the option of buying it second hand. Also, it is better to buy a new/second hand thing once in a while than to fall for more expensive habits that cost you something every month. Although if you buy too many niceties, it will also add up.
Think about the day you are going to downsize... Then you don't want to bring along a house full of niceties. Minimalism is a nice concept.

Rubyvroom

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #317 on: December 12, 2017, 07:26:05 AM »
However, I recently got a new job that comes with a hefty pay raise. Yes! My increased pay will cut down my time to FIRE substantially. I'm now comfortable setting a goal of three years: December 31, 2020.
I'll need moral support to make sure I don't succumb to lifestyle creep. My new salary is high enough that I'll likely be able to enjoy a few more niceties while also saving loads of money. I just need to make sure I don't let those little niceties to become big, pointless expenses...
Here we go!

Congrats and welcome! Just think of all the FREEDOM you can buy with that new money. It is the best nicety of all :)

Thanks for all the % WR replies everyone. It's good to hear what others on a similar timeline are planning.

It seems folks here are more cautious than I think we will be, but that's the beauty of this entire FIRE process... it can be 100% custom to your situation/risk tolerance.

Someone brought up Social Security - good point. I do not factor in Social Security into my numbers, simply because as a person in their late 30's, I have no idea how to estimate something that is so far in the future and is constantly under the microscope for unfavorable changes. So that's probably our biggest "safety net" that I'm purposefully excluding. I did a firesim once with it included, using an estimate right off the SS site, and everything was unicorns and roses so... who knows.

There are so many things that may change between now and 2020 anyway, with my primary concerns being health care and a market pullback. Only time will tell!

tooqk4u22

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #318 on: December 12, 2017, 07:37:29 AM »
My estimate of no decrease in spending would put us at 3.5% already, and with expected savings included is 2.97% right now, but I still haven't pulled the trigger.  I feel like we've got one of those worst case scenario sequence of returns coming up in the next couple of years, combined with a healthcare system that continues to spiral out of control.  And my plan was to stick it out until 2020 anyways...

That's kind of how I see it too....3% feels good to me.  Ignoring historical backtesting, it just makes me feel better that my portfolio can lose 25% and I would still be at a 4% WR. May be too conservative but hard to argue with the safety margin it affords.  Plus I have plenty of spending that can be cut or isn't necessarily permanent like spending on kid related activities/direct cost that won't exist once they are out of the house that I include in my 3% calculation when the reality it is more like 10 years +/-  (hint the math is the actual costs of the activities for 10 years is about 1/3rd of the 3% WR rate amount for such annual spending).  I am ok with this as it is more cushion and if all goes fine I plan/hope to use the excess for more travel, college expenses, or to help them in other ways. 

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #319 on: December 12, 2017, 07:51:23 AM »
I'll probably start at about 2-3 % from investments to supplement my pension which is more like an annuity and will be less than 1/3 of my current salary.  My pension has no COLA and I anticipate my withdrawal rate from my investments will increase over time.  Healthcare costs are my biggest concern.  I hope to stick it out until the end of 2020, but I work for an elected official who is retiring next year, so a lot will depend on the regime change.

asauer

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #320 on: December 13, 2017, 12:15:17 PM »
We're aiming at 4% not including Social Security or the house.  We plan to downsize the second our kids are out of the house which should bring us to 3.75%.

Loren Ver

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #321 on: December 13, 2017, 12:46:56 PM »
However, I recently got a new job that comes with a hefty pay raise. Yes! My increased pay will cut down my time to FIRE substantially. I'm now comfortable setting a goal of three years: December 31, 2020.
I'll need moral support to make sure I don't succumb to lifestyle creep. My new salary is high enough that I'll likely be able to enjoy a few more niceties while also saving loads of money. I just need to make sure I don't let those little niceties to become big, pointless expenses...
Here we go!

Congrats and welcome! Just think of all the FREEDOM you can buy with that new money. It is the best nicety of all :)

Thanks for all the % WR replies everyone. It's good to hear what others on a similar timeline are planning.

It seems folks here are more cautious than I think we will be, but that's the beauty of this entire FIRE process... it can be 100% custom to your situation/risk tolerance.

Someone brought up Social Security - good point. I do not factor in Social Security into my numbers, simply because as a person in their late 30's, I have no idea how to estimate something that is so far in the future and is constantly under the microscope for unfavorable changes. So that's probably our biggest "safety net" that I'm purposefully excluding. I did a firesim once with it included, using an estimate right off the SS site, and everything was unicorns and roses so... who knows.

There are so many things that may change between now and 2020 anyway, with my primary concerns being health care and a market pullback. Only time will tell!

Hey Rubyvroom.  I think you are I are moving forward similarly.  No kids, lots of flexibility etc.  Right now I am aiming more for a date than a %WR.  If the markets makes 7%, we will probably be 4.5 or 5% WR for the first year.  If the market grows more than 4.5 or 5% the WR % naturally falls if we pull out the same amount of money (we don't plan to inflation adjust until we need to).

I find myself more risk taking than many of the people on the forums, but that is just how I roll.  If it doesn't work out, then it doesn't but I am going to enjoy if while it does!

What I need to decide is, DH plans to retire on the 13th of May (the day before he turns 41).  Do I retire too, or hold out until the end of the year to get my bonus (and cheap insurance, and pay, etc etc).

I guess that will depend on how I feel when I get there.

LV

Lews Therin

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #322 on: December 13, 2017, 01:10:12 PM »
I'm planning 4%, with the option to do some very part-time work (20hrs a month type) in order to increase that IF NECESSARY to 5% (5k extra). But in all likelyhood, I'll be able to coast with 4%.

nora

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #323 on: December 17, 2017, 07:06:41 AM »
I am planning to retire on the 24th December 2020. Just in time for Christmas. I am somewhat apprehensive about actually stopping working, although I will only have to remind myself of my worst day at work and I will happily say goodbye. I will be 42. My husband has already retired, just before his 40th birthday.

I need to save $750000 to produce $30000 a year. This is half of what we spend, with the other half coming from flatmates and renting paddocks. By the end of 2020 the stash should have well exceeded the goal, but my work goes in three year cycles, so may as well plan to do the whole three years. It gives me extra time if the unexpected happens. And I work casually so if I don't work enough to make the goal, then the extra time will help.

It is 80:20 stocks/bonds and I hope it makes 7% after tax a year.

We have a paid off house plus some retirement fund we can't access until age 60.



Pennycounter

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #324 on: December 17, 2017, 09:43:25 PM »
Welcome Layla! Maybe itís because 2018 is so close but 2020 is feeling not so far away any more!

dreams_and_discoveries

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #325 on: December 18, 2017, 01:08:41 AM »
Welcome Layla! Maybe itís because 2018 is so close but 2020 is feeling not so far away any more!

I agree, it's feeling quite close, even tho I just aiming for the end of 2020, which is just 3 years away now.

rab-bit

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #326 on: January 01, 2018, 09:18:22 AM »
Pencil me in for a 3/31/2020 retirement date. It could be sooner though since the financial situation at my employer is pretty shaky and I'm old enough that getting another job might not be that easy. My wife's employment situation is not all that stable either. We could probably make it work even in the worst case scenario so I'm not too worried, but it would definitely be much easier if we could both hang on for 2+ more years and execute our plan. Fingers crossed.

Rubyvroom

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #327 on: January 01, 2018, 10:22:19 AM »
Dec 2016 - 25.0% (53% YTD savings rate)
Jan 2017 - 26.2% (56% savings rate)
Feb 2017 - 27.7% (60% savings rate)
Mar 2017 - 29.1% (77% savings rate)
65.4% Q1 Savings Rate
Apr 2017 - 30.7% (71% savings rate)
May 2017 - 31.8% (59% savings rate)
Jun 2017 - 33.0% (55% savings rate)
63.0% Q2 Savings Rate
Jul 2017 - 34.4% (60% savings rate)
Aug 2017 - 35.5% (61% savings rate)
Sep 2017 - 37.0% (60% savings rate)
60.6% Q3 Savings Rate

Oct 2017 - 38.6% (71% savings rate)
Nov 2017 - 40.5% (69% savings rate)
Dec 2017 - 41.6% (62% savings rate)
67.2% Q4 Savings Rate

63.8% 2017 YTD Savings Rate

We had a pretty fantastic year in terms of our own personal savings and the out-of-control market gains. We didn't quite pull off a 65% savings rate but I'm certainly not unhappy about 63.8%. It's good to have stretch goals.

It's interesting to poke around in the 2018 FIRE Cohort thread. There is a lot of OMY happening over there due to the market run-up and uncertainty about ACA. I'm sure we'll have our own slew of worries when 2020 rolls around.

I hope you are all having a great new year!


Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #328 on: January 02, 2018, 03:16:11 AM »
We are really saving our behinds off to finance the years between starting FIRE and starting to receive our regular pension. Eralier I presumed that our regular pension would be sufficient to live off. But I am currently realizing that my personal pension, with quitting so early, will be quite low. So low in fact that I think I will have to rely on DH's pension to survive without working. All well, but you never know how long a marriage lasts.

In the Christmas holiday we heard how much DH's father has in ownership as his private pension fund. It is quite a lot and he thinks, based on his spending pattern, that he won't use it up. Depending on how old he will get, we will expect a bigger or smaller windfall shared with 1 brother some day. Same from my mother.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2018, 01:45:00 PM by Linda_Norway »

toocold

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #329 on: January 06, 2018, 08:37:00 AM »
After finishing our financial updates for 2017, I'm now targeting 4/2020 for my RE date.  I'm already FI living off of 1.5% of NW each year but I'm hoping that my OMY stops at this date, after I accomplish some stuff I'm working on at work.  I'm excited to join this cohort!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #330 on: January 06, 2018, 01:19:17 PM »
I closed out 2017 with a 76% savings rate.

Portfolio as a multiple of projected FIRE expenses = 15X for myself

If I include SO's #'s for a combined picture we are around 9X expenses, but she will continue working after our sabbatical in 2020, I may not.

April 1, 2020 is still the target date, based on staying with current Megacorp.

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #331 on: January 07, 2018, 08:01:00 PM »
Dec-2017 highlights:

- Holidays now behind us, we are seeking to rent our newly-acquired "future MCOL home" (minor make-ready projects are done & paid for)
- We are listing our "current HCOL home" for sale this week! (will move into a rental post-sale)
- December savings were modest, given holiday travels, minor housing costs, caps reached on pre-tax savings
- Stretch goal countdown is now @ 16 months (May-2019); more realistic countdown goal is @ 27 months (Apr-2020)

EOY 2016:  70.6%
JAN 2017:  70.0%
FEB 2017:  70.2%
MAR 2017: 71.2%
APR 2017   71.9%
MAY 2017   72.4%
JUN 2017:  73.3%
JUL 2017:   74.1%
AUG 2017:  74.1%
SEP 2017:  76.2%
OCT 2017:  77.3%
NOV 2017:  78.2%
DEC 2017:  78.6%
EOY 2017: 78.6%

Well, we added another 8% progress this year toward our ultimate target!
I will post separately to review progress against our 2017 goals, and lay out some 2018 goals.

FIREby2021

FIREby2021

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #332 on: January 07, 2018, 08:27:37 PM »
Hey 2020 crew!  Put the wraps on another great year! We started our FIRE journey in earnest in 2015 after years of so-so habits, and have kept our sights on April 2020 as our FIRE date from the corporate world, and move to our "dream" L(M)COL location.


Stats:
2015 Savings Rate = 51.0%
2015 Giving Rate = 11.2%

2016 Savings Rate = 65.5%
2016 Giving Rate = 12.5%

2017 Savings Rate = 64.4%
2017 Giving Rate = 11.5%

// Rates relative to net income //

EOY 2015 FIRE Progress = 56.2%
EOY 2016 FIRE Progress = 70.6%
EOY 2017 FIRE Progress = 78.6%

// FI defined as 3.5% SWR, mortgage-free + giving fund //


Key goals for 2018 are:

1. Sustain (or beat) a savings rate of 65%
2. Attain 87.0% of progress toward our NW FIRE target, and achieve desired AA (75/25) for SWR portion
3. Demonstrate proof of concept for future side hustle (deferred from 2017 to 2018)
4. Optimize Housing costs (sell HCOL house, shift to HCOL rental, secure renters for L(M)COL house)
5. Study Healthcare options and decide on future strategy

Happy New Year!

FIREby2021

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #333 on: January 08, 2018, 08:10:07 AM »
Still hoping for EOY 2020.  Putting more into tax deferred accounts and really going to focus living within my prospective budget for the next ~3 years.  I've spent way too much the last couple of years.

Lews Therin

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #334 on: January 08, 2018, 08:23:02 AM »
I'm kinda unmotivated, I have everything put on automatic, so there's not much left to do except for wait for time to get me to 2020. (Everything indicates it'll go perfect, as I have job security and it's SR based, not market based for the FIRE date. (I.E. market returns will have almost no effect on the timing)

New goals: Find a wait to enjoy sitting and waiting.

At this point, it's all about learning new things in order to keep adding new stuff I can do on my own, and will never have to pay for in the future like learning how to do all car maintenance, building furniture. I concentrated on groceries last year and got it down to less than 100$ per month (for 1), and could easily cut that lower if I was cooking for two.

DeanHedlund

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #335 on: January 08, 2018, 09:47:09 AM »
At this point, it's all about learning new things in order to keep adding new stuff I can do on my own, and will never have to pay for in the future like learning how to do all car maintenance, building furniture. I concentrated on groceries last year and got it down to less than 100$ per month (for 1), and could easily cut that lower if I was cooking for two.

$100 is very low, glad you can do it. I am fascinated by how much we can learn from youtube, etc. We are still on track for spring 2020 as planned.

Lews Therin

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #336 on: January 08, 2018, 09:52:41 AM »
95% of my meals have about 3 ingredients + spices. When everything is around 1$/Lbs or less, it's easy enough to reach 100$.

dreams_and_discoveries

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #337 on: January 09, 2018, 02:06:26 AM »
It's great to see everyone's progress here as the years reduce, are people counting down in months now?

On the grocery budgets, fascinating how different everyone's version of the norm is....to me $100 seems reasonable rather than a frugal target.

BFGirl

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #338 on: January 09, 2018, 03:30:51 AM »
1187 days for me!

Lews Therin

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #339 on: January 09, 2018, 06:12:01 AM »
927 here! or 30 Months!

asauer

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #340 on: January 09, 2018, 06:13:03 AM »
Another good month!  Still aiming at 12/31/2020. 

Sept 1 2017:526,110
Oct 1: 531,034
Nov 1: 548,730
Dec 1: 564,953
Jan 1, 2018: 580,396




Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #341 on: January 09, 2018, 07:19:35 AM »
It's great to see everyone's progress here as the years reduce, are people counting down in months now?

Counting the days until my DH does the calculations on his bank account...
I am individually at 68% savings rate in 2017. But I want to find out at which rate we are together, as it is the total that counts. In 2016 (before discovering MMM) we were at 60% and my goal was to do better that that in 2017.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #342 on: January 09, 2018, 07:56:37 AM »
811 days =p

Lews Therin

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #343 on: January 09, 2018, 07:57:44 AM »
811 days =p

Well played... well played.

bluebelle

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #344 on: January 10, 2018, 08:48:46 AM »
I'm in....our target date is May 31 2020 - date hubby qualifies for a (reduced) defined benefit pension then.  We're holding out for that date, because retiring rather than quiting, gives us access to the group rate for retiree benefits, rather than purchasing it privately.  Contrary to popular belief, health care in Canada is not free, only basic medical, and hubby has some medical issues that require some expensive drugs. 

And maybe not a popular idea on this forum, but we have a vision for our retirement that includes a waterfront home (we bought the property last year and start building late this year),  we both want out of the city.  I can honestly say, the only thing I'll miss about living in the city is being able to walk to a grocery store.  We're both really looking forward to the small town life. 

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #345 on: January 11, 2018, 10:53:07 AM »
It's great to see everyone's progress here as the years reduce, are people counting down in months now?

Counting the days until my DH does the calculations on his bank account...
I am individually at 68% savings rate in 2017. But I want to find out at which rate we are together, as it is the total that counts. In 2016 (before discovering MMM) we were at 60% and my goal was to do better that that in 2017.

DH has run his numbers. In 2017 we have saved 75% of our net income! And we spent only about 60% of our FIRE spending budget. This year is a bit unusual, because we didn't have any large repairs or replacements of equipment. So normally the spending will be higher, but we might be able to change our spending budget and FIRE earlier. We'll see when I run the numbers.

Lews Therin

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #346 on: January 11, 2018, 11:17:44 AM »
Wouldn`t that be a nice suprise Linda:

-Recalculates the numbers: Oh, we can FIRE now.

Loren Ver

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #347 on: January 11, 2018, 01:41:22 PM »
DH has started spending me updates on how many days we have left.  Also, how many of those are working days.  And how many weeks.  That man loves excel.

We are still aiming for 13May2020, but DH has started asking about Jan 2020.  I love the idea, but the market is due for a big down slide, and I don't want to walk away right when that happens with a tight nest egg. 

Also, some of the savings rates we have on here are awesome!  Woot woot!

LV

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #348 on: January 17, 2018, 02:48:59 PM »
I'm on the fence between 7/25/18 & 7/25/20, so I'm reading both cohorts but should be making a final decision soon. We can afford for me to FIRE this summer (DH will continue to work), but we won't be able to remodel our house. If I stay until 2020, we can remodel. I'm leaning in the direction of staying, but waiting to get all of the final numbers in to understand exactly what would be required. If I stay for a few more years, I will likely get another big promotion, and therefore it may be early in 2020. Fingers crossed!

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2020 FIRE Cohort
« Reply #349 on: January 17, 2018, 11:49:27 PM »
I'm on the fence between 7/25/18 & 7/25/20, so I'm reading both cohorts but should be making a final decision soon. We can afford for me to FIRE this summer (DH will continue to work), but we won't be able to remodel our house. If I stay until 2020, we can remodel. I'm leaning in the direction of staying, but waiting to get all of the final numbers in to understand exactly what would be required. If I stay for a few more years, I will likely get another big promotion, and therefore it may be early in 2020. Fingers crossed!

I think remodelling the house is one of the things you want to be able to do from time to time, using a lot of your own effort instead of buying it from others. I think the budget should open up for a big purchase every 5 years or so.

Wouldn`t that be a nice suprise Linda:

-Recalculates the numbers: Oh, we can FIRE now.

My FIRE spending budget (simply divided by 10 to make it look more like dollars, but not very correct) was 50.000$ a year. In 2017 we spent 28.000$. If I change my FIRE budget to 40.000$ a year, we currently have enough stash to FIRE in 2019. But as mentioned above, it would be nice to have room in the budget for a bigger purchase every couple of years. So I am pretty tempted to still keep it high. Maybe reduce it to 45.000$, but not much below it. I think 2017 was an exceptionally cheap year with no car repairs. We cannot count on it always being so cheap.

In my spreadsheet I can vary the Safe withdrawal rate. Originally I had 4%, but I recently changed it to 3,6%. There is also some slack. I still think that with 3,6%, we can reduce our hours in 2019 and FIRE completely in 2020. For the moment this is the plan, but it could change depending on the stash we manage to build in 2018 and not in the least what we manage to sell our house for.

House in Norwegian crowns divided by 10: purchased for 790.000$.
In my spreadsheet I count on selling it for a nett 700.000$, losing almost 100.000$, as I don't want to be optimistic. And I am afraid we might have paid too much for the house when we bought it. If things turn out more optimistically and we are left with 800.000$ after a sale, we sudden have earned 2 years of FIRE budget.

And we have the prospect of receiving a windfall in the future, the size of it depending on how long the parents live. We do not need it to FIRE, so I hope they will live as long as their health allows them.