Author Topic: 2019 fire cohort  (Read 793058 times)

Loren Ver

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1450 on: December 13, 2018, 05:51:28 AM »
Welcome new people!  Glad you are looking at pulling the triggers in 2019 too!

For the big crash question, that is an interesting question as DH and I are going to be right around 4% (maybe more, maybe less) depending on the market when we leave.  Since we haven't been high earners most of our careers, we have taken high risk with our portfolios to cut down on time.  So if stocks go down, we go very down with them. 

So, what is the plan if bad times hit early in retirement since we don't plan on keeping out jobs:
1.  We have two years of mortgage payments in cash.  Having a cheap house really helps with this. 
2.  We will also have an additional cash buffer to fill in gaps.
3.  Knowing the mortgage is covered, we can cut spending by over a third and still be happy, if less traveled.   
4.  We plan on pulling money out the year before for tax reasons (2019 money will mostly come from 2018 investments), so we know at what value we will be selling.   If things are bad, we can put off pulling out more money and use the cash above. 
5.  Even though we are mostly in stocks, we have some diversity there.  We can draw down from industries that are still in the green, or that are most likely to bounce back fast. 
6.  If things are really really bad, and we can pull out no money, and all our cash is dwindling, we will have to find a way, between the 2 of us, to bring in ~$24,000 per year to keep us afloat.  I have skills, even if not high paying, are highly desirable. 


dude

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1451 on: December 13, 2018, 07:03:48 AM »
Welcome new people!  Glad you are looking at pulling the triggers in 2019 too!

For the big crash question, that is an interesting question as DH and I are going to be right around 4% (maybe more, maybe less) depending on the market when we leave.  Since we haven't been high earners most of our careers, we have taken high risk with our portfolios to cut down on time.  So if stocks go down, we go very down with them. 

So, what is the plan if bad times hit early in retirement since we don't plan on keeping out jobs:
1.  We have two years of mortgage payments in cash.  Having a cheap house really helps with this. 
2.  We will also have an additional cash buffer to fill in gaps.
3.  Knowing the mortgage is covered, we can cut spending by over a third and still be happy, if less traveled.   
4.  We plan on pulling money out the year before for tax reasons (2019 money will mostly come from 2018 investments), so we know at what value we will be selling.   If things are bad, we can put off pulling out more money and use the cash above. 
5.  Even though we are mostly in stocks, we have some diversity there.  We can draw down from industries that are still in the green, or that are most likely to bounce back fast. 
6.  If things are really really bad, and we can pull out no money, and all our cash is dwindling, we will have to find a way, between the 2 of us, to bring in ~$24,000 per year to keep us afloat.  I have skills, even if not high paying, are highly desirable.

I'm very fortunate to have a pension that will cover my non-discretionary spending. And I figured I'd already won the game, so to speak, when my retirement accounts were @$800k, so I dropped to a 50/50 allocation (for at least as long as this market reverts back or close to the mean) where I've earned a risk-free 2.87% on the bond half over the past year. With recent market drops, I'm down to @$760k now, but that's still plenty enough money that I can take $15k for discretionary spending and still only be at a <2% withdrawal. I will also earn some income, perhaps a couple grand annually, working a hobby gig very part-time. So really the only detrimental thing I envision if markets stayed down or flat would be traveling domestically rather than internationally for a little while. Not a big deal.

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1452 on: December 13, 2018, 08:31:43 AM »
100 Work Days to go!!!!!!!

With some vacation and personal days slated for early 2019, I have only 100 more days at the office to go! I can't believe it's getting so close.


Cornbread OMalley

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1453 on: December 13, 2018, 08:25:46 PM »
Welcome new people!  Glad you are looking at pulling the triggers in 2019 too!

For the big crash question, that is an interesting question as DH and I are going to be right around 4% (maybe more, maybe less) depending on the market when we leave.  Since we haven't been high earners most of our careers, we have taken high risk with our portfolios to cut down on time.  So if stocks go down, we go very down with them. 

So, what is the plan if bad times hit early in retirement since we don't plan on keeping out jobs:
1.  We have two years of mortgage payments in cash.  Having a cheap house really helps with this. 
2.  We will also have an additional cash buffer to fill in gaps.
3.  Knowing the mortgage is covered, we can cut spending by over a third and still be happy, if less traveled.   
4.  We plan on pulling money out the year before for tax reasons (2019 money will mostly come from 2018 investments), so we know at what value we will be selling.   If things are bad, we can put off pulling out more money and use the cash above. 
5.  Even though we are mostly in stocks, we have some diversity there.  We can draw down from industries that are still in the green, or that are most likely to bounce back fast. 
6.  If things are really really bad, and we can pull out no money, and all our cash is dwindling, we will have to find a way, between the 2 of us, to bring in ~$24,000 per year to keep us afloat.  I have skills, even if not high paying, are highly desirable.

I'm very fortunate to have a pension that will cover my non-discretionary spending. And I figured I'd already won the game, so to speak, when my retirement accounts were @$800k, so I dropped to a 50/50 allocation (for at least as long as this market reverts back or close to the mean) where I've earned a risk-free 2.87% on the bond half over the past year. With recent market drops, I'm down to @$760k now, but that's still plenty enough money that I can take $15k for discretionary spending and still only be at a <2% withdrawal. I will also earn some income, perhaps a couple grand annually, working a hobby gig very part-time. So really the only detrimental thing I envision if markets stayed down or flat would be traveling domestically rather than internationally for a little while. Not a big deal.
I'm in a similar situation like dude in that I also get a pension.  In addition, my regular taxable accounts are around $800K (retirement accounts around $525K).  My pension will give me $53K annually, and during good market conditions my taxable accounts generate about $26K for income.  After taxes total passive income will be around $64K a year.  In worst case, my taxable accounts deliver zero for income.  So my passive income range when I start FIRE is high-end of $64K and low-end of $40K.  I also have enough cash available (currently at $73K) to last me two years worth of living expenses.

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1454 on: December 13, 2018, 08:28:44 PM »
Millenial Revolution's website does a good job explaining the cash buffer and yield shield (https://www.millennial-revolution.com/yield-shield/) on how to protect yourself if you happen to retire right before a market crash.

For us, we'd probably just end up working another few years. DH has already said he wants to renew his contract because he enjoys his work, so we know for sure we will have one income coming in (does that still count as FIRE-ing in 2019 if I stop working, if we end up saving his entire income and just living off our investment income)?

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1455 on: December 14, 2018, 08:04:31 AM »
Welcome new people!  Glad you are looking at pulling the triggers in 2019 too!

For the big crash question, that is an interesting question as DH and I are going to be right around 4% (maybe more, maybe less) depending on the market when we leave.  Since we haven't been high earners most of our careers, we have taken high risk with our portfolios to cut down on time.  So if stocks go down, we go very down with them. 

So, what is the plan if bad times hit early in retirement since we don't plan on keeping out jobs:
1.  We have two years of mortgage payments in cash.  Having a cheap house really helps with this. 
2.  We will also have an additional cash buffer to fill in gaps.
3.  Knowing the mortgage is covered, we can cut spending by over a third and still be happy, if less traveled.   
4.  We plan on pulling money out the year before for tax reasons (2019 money will mostly come from 2018 investments), so we know at what value we will be selling.   If things are bad, we can put off pulling out more money and use the cash above. 
5.  Even though we are mostly in stocks, we have some diversity there.  We can draw down from industries that are still in the green, or that are most likely to bounce back fast. 
6.  If things are really really bad, and we can pull out no money, and all our cash is dwindling, we will have to find a way, between the 2 of us, to bring in ~$24,000 per year to keep us afloat.  I have skills, even if not high paying, are highly desirable.

I'm very fortunate to have a pension that will cover my non-discretionary spending. And I figured I'd already won the game, so to speak, when my retirement accounts were @$800k, so I dropped to a 50/50 allocation (for at least as long as this market reverts back or close to the mean) where I've earned a risk-free 2.87% on the bond half over the past year. With recent market drops, I'm down to @$760k now, but that's still plenty enough money that I can take $15k for discretionary spending and still only be at a <2% withdrawal. I will also earn some income, perhaps a couple grand annually, working a hobby gig very part-time. So really the only detrimental thing I envision if markets stayed down or flat would be traveling domestically rather than internationally for a little while. Not a big deal.
I'm in a similar situation like dude in that I also get a pension.  In addition, my regular taxable accounts are around $800K (retirement accounts around $525K).  My pension will give me $53K annually, and during good market conditions my taxable accounts generate about $26K for income.  After taxes total passive income will be around $64K a year.  In worst case, my taxable accounts deliver zero for income.  So my passive income range when I start FIRE is high-end of $64K and low-end of $40K.  I also have enough cash available (currently at $73K) to last me two years worth of living expenses.

Right on, Cornbread. Foregoing the private sector money for the pension and benefits was a conscious choice I made @22 years ago, and I don't regret it for one minute.

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1456 on: December 14, 2018, 08:32:42 AM »
Checks countdown app on phone... 364 days, 260 weekdays. So I'm hopeful to join the 2019 cohort as of December 13th 2019.  I will be 44 at that point.

My prediction is that DW may get a sweetheart deal at her work, she has been the linchpin to keeping one of their bigger clients happy, but the only way she stays is part-time and 100% remote from sunny Mexico.  They currently have a rule at her office about no remote work from Mexico (no obvious reason why, they currently have other offices outside the US), but I suspect this rule gets changed when the choice is DW + part-time+ Mexico = Happy Client who continues to send work your way or No DW = Not Happy Client and possibly less work. 

We don't need her to work to RE at this point, but she has expressed the possibility of liking some structure to her day and a way to silence her "inner bag-lady".

As to market downturn, we have that planned into our Financial Manifesto, decrease discretionary spending, rent out the casita on our property in Mexico, dance for nickles down by the pier, you get the gist.

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1457 on: December 14, 2018, 09:09:50 AM »
So much is up in the air right now regarding work.

I have my first chunk of options vesting October 1, 2019.......but we have to go public for them to be worth anything.

My financial model still shows my 12 month trailing expenses crossing 4% of investments in August of 2019.

If I feel there is a good chance we go public late 2019/early 2020, then I think it might we worth staying a little while longer, especially if stocks do go on a fire sale.

As a household we are only at ~14x annual expenses.

Cornbread OMalley

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1458 on: December 14, 2018, 07:34:33 PM »
Right on, Cornbread. Foregoing the private sector money for the pension and benefits was a conscious choice I made @22 years ago, and I don't regret it for one minute.
I would like to get my taxable accounts to generate after-tax $40K per year.  Considering the outlook for the US economy is only about 2% growth for 2019 (and possibly beyond) and a lot of market volatility, getting to that $40K amount is probably going to take several more years of accumulation phase.  When I hit my FIRE date in about nine months my accumulation phase essentially ends.  However, I think I will have periods where I work and earn income doing something.  I've been reading Tim Ferriss' book The 4-Hour Workweek and really like the idea of working two months and then taking one month off or I can just do seasonal work.  Scuba diving instructor is an option for me, and I can have short periods of mini-accumulation where I can invest more money into the taxable accounts.  Eventually, I will get to the point where my taxable accounts generate $40K in after-tax passive income.

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1459 on: December 15, 2018, 05:22:50 AM »
OK, got some news here.  I've pushed my FIRE date back to 1/31/19.  At work they were (surprisingly quickly) able to hire my replacement, and she starts the week after next.  They lucked out because she is already with the company in another division and can transfer over quickly.  Boss begged me to stay and train her for a month, and I said yes.  I told myself it was only 21 more days of work, and I could leave feeling good that I had helped with the transition.  I know from experience what it's like to train people from scratch vs. having their predecessor available.

So before you start the face punches -- my subconscious/right brain/real self/whatever-you-want-to-call-it already beat you to it.  I had a recurring dream all night last night that I was fleeing from shadowy figures.  Sometimes they seemed like criminals, and sometimes they seemed like 'authorities.'  I was struggling to flee because I had two big trunks I had to drag along with me, full of clothes, books, and miscellaneous crap.  And they were so heavy.  I tried to give things away to people, and that lightened the load a bit, but not enough.  I wasn't brave enough to just drop the trunks and run.  So I struggled onward, in fear and doubt.

Cohort member @sui generis did a very thoughtful post in her journal lately about our internal 'Narrator.'  Some call it the 'Interpreter.'  It is the voice we often hear when we think, that explains and interprets events and keeps us on an even mental keel.  But the Narrator is not who we really are, or at least not all of who we actually are.  If you've heard of the fascinating so-called 'Split Brain' experiments, this 'Narrator' was one aspect of how the two halves of the brain work together.

So here I am, a 51 year old logical-as-hell lawyer, and I feel like I am two people.  The Narrator likes my decision to stay for another month, and the 'Rest of Me' (or right brain or whatever) really hates it.  I find this whole thing fascinating and oddly touching.  My Narrator is apparently barely keeping a lid on a serious rebellion that is going on.  The Rest of Me can't speak as such, but apparently communicates the only way it can -- in dreams, and also physical manifestations of distress.  My TMJ pain is off the chart this morning.

I honestly did not expect the final exit to be this challenging mentally.  I wonder if I'm also waaaay underestimating how rough the FIRE decompression period is going to be . . .         

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1460 on: December 15, 2018, 05:58:43 AM »
Hey @Trifele. you're still the first one out in January among this group =P

That's a reason I would stay too, not to mention you will pay no taxes on that income =P

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1461 on: December 15, 2018, 06:16:02 AM »
@Trifele, don't feel bad about it. The default goodbye period in the USA, the 2 weeks, is very short to organize anything for a company. Staying 21 days longer to help your employer and your colleagues out is a nice thing to do. Just don't let them convince you to do even longer than that.

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1462 on: December 15, 2018, 06:39:31 AM »
13 weeks until notice.  Update:  3 of those will be spent on vacation between a long holiday break, four federal holidays, and a week and a half trip to Hawaii.

@Trifele I can relate to the painful exit.  It took months for me to have the courage to request a demotion and I still had a few gut wrenching feelings.  Part two is coming soon, which was looking easier.  Those thoughts started in September and its finally mid-December for them to subside.

DreamFIRE

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1463 on: December 15, 2018, 08:29:36 AM »
Another month or less isn't bad at all.  Heck, I'm looking at extending out another 10 months beyond my target that is 6 months off.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/2019-fire-cohort/msg2228571/#msg2228571

20 weeks until I probably won't give notice.  Something to look forward to, or not.  lol

Edit:

The entire ACA was just ruled unconstitutional by a federal judge.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/federal-judge-in-texas-rules-obama-health-care-law-unconstitutional/2018/12/14/9e8bb5a2-fd63-11e8-862a-b6a6f3ce8199_story.html
« Last Edit: December 15, 2018, 09:18:35 AM by DreamFIRE »

sui generis

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1464 on: December 15, 2018, 11:27:15 PM »

So here I am, a 51 year old logical-as-hell lawyer, and I feel like I am two people.  The Narrator likes my decision to stay for another month, and the 'Rest of Me' (or right brain or whatever) really hates it.  I find this whole thing fascinating and oddly touching.  My Narrator is apparently barely keeping a lid on a serious rebellion that is going on.  The Rest of Me can't speak as such, but apparently communicates the only way it can -- in dreams, and also physical manifestations of distress.  My TMJ pain is off the chart this morning.


Oh wow, this sounds really intense.  I hope you can find some ways to hear more of that "rest of you", even if it's too late to change your mind on extending (maybe you could still do only 25-30 hours/week for that last month as a way to transition for yourself?). I agree with others that you shouldn't feel bad and one month is not so long...in principle.  Even though your Narrator is probably right and perfectly reasonable, it sounds like there's more to the story here.  I hope more of it comes to light, if for no other reason than reducing your physical pain!

Cornbread OMalley

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1465 on: December 16, 2018, 07:08:27 AM »
So here I am, a 51 year old logical-as-hell lawyer, and I feel like I am two people.  The Narrator likes my decision to stay for another month, and the 'Rest of Me' (or right brain or whatever) really hates it.  I find this whole thing fascinating and oddly touching.  My Narrator is apparently barely keeping a lid on a serious rebellion that is going on.  The Rest of Me can't speak as such, but apparently communicates the only way it can -- in dreams, and also physical manifestations of distress.  My TMJ pain is off the chart this morning.

I honestly did not expect the final exit to be this challenging mentally.  I wonder if I'm also waaaay underestimating how rough the FIRE decompression period is going to be . . .       
How I see it is the struggle between 'Narrator' and 'Rest of Me' will continue well into FIRE and going forward.  We all will go through some form of this as we hit the FIRE gate and continue beyond.  The reason the struggle will continue is because we are opening up a phase in life where the possibilities are endless, and we will have many many Narrator/Rest of Me mental discussions to navigate the possibilities.  For me, I've been having these mental discussions ever since making the decision to FIRE.  They are exciting and stressful at the same time.  I'm learning to embrace everything as part of the FIRE process.

August

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1466 on: December 16, 2018, 06:58:29 PM »
Hello, I haven't joined a cohort thread yet.

My resignation date keeps moving.  My final day was originally going to be mid-May 2018 because it was the anniversary of a significant event in my life, then that day came and went.  I thought, how about the end of July, that way I can leave and enjoy the summer weather.  The frenetic pace of work started to slow down, making it more tolerable and I just let it ride through the summer.  I moved my last day to September, then mid-October. 

I definitely want to leave the job, but it turns out that making a big change after working in one place for 15+ years isn't easy.  It's comforting to have a routine and work-friends I see every day.  I have my "bare bones" passive income and budget set, and am ready to dive into projects that I don't have time for now due to the work schedule.  A line had to be drawn so I decided I'd go through the end of the year and leave on Dec 28.  Now that it's two weeks away it doesn't feel like the right time due to some details to sort out with paid time off, my supervisor being out on leave and delays in getting healthcare for next year.  Also January is the job's busiest time of year and I'd feel like a jerk to leave right before the workload increases.

So now I'm thinking the end of January 2019.  That way I'll help my team get through the month, plus since I was originally hired in January it will make my career exactly 16 years.  And that will be shortly before my birthday.  This is how I chose my last day of full time work (maybe it doesn't make sense).  I'm posting this here to help make myself accountable.

August

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1467 on: December 16, 2018, 07:03:54 PM »
Are you in the USA? Might be worth working far enough into 2019 to max out tax advantaged space and 0/10/12% fed tax brackets.

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1468 on: December 16, 2018, 07:06:14 PM »
...big snip..... I'm posting this here to help make myself accountable.

August
Welcome August.
As to the quote above," It is on the Internet, so it must be true"
Don't disappoint the Internet !   :-)

August

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1469 on: December 16, 2018, 07:47:37 PM »
Are you in the USA? Might be worth working far enough into 2019 to max out tax advantaged space and 0/10/12% fed tax brackets.

Yes in the USA, wages in January will added to my Roth IRA (less than the annual limit).
However I had these thoughts last year as well.  At some point I have to pick a date and stick with it, regardless of the tax details.

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1470 on: December 16, 2018, 11:48:05 PM »
@Trifele and others who choose to work for their employer's benefit, make sure you do it on your own conditions that make the period bearable. When they need you to work extra time, make sure your working hours are a good fit for you. Or do only -<5 days a week.

It came to mind that I already did this when I was working as a practitioner as a part of my education, in my early twenties. The company wanted to keep me an additional 2-3 months. Then I worked from 9-3, instead on 8-4. And for a good pay bump.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2018, 03:53:21 AM by Linda_Norway »

Trifle

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1471 on: December 17, 2018, 03:41:48 AM »
Welcome @August!  Same situation here -- originally wanted to leave at the very beginning of January, now looking at the end of the month.  It really does get strangely difficult at the very end . . .

Thanks @Linda_Norway -- you are right that the working conditions at the end are critical.  For me they will be fine in terms of number of hours.  I don't work weekends, and I can come and go as I please.  No complaints there.

Hope everyone has a good week!

chasesfish

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1472 on: December 17, 2018, 05:07:23 AM »
@August as someone who also moved their date out, there's a lot of benefit in working a one to a couple months in a new tax year.

Roth IRA eligibility

The income you earn is barely taxable

Potentially maxing employer retirement accounts (my contribution rate for 2019 is set at 50%)

Its not all bad

Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1473 on: December 17, 2018, 10:51:25 AM »
...big snip..... I'm posting this here to help make myself accountable.

August
Welcome August.
As to the quote above," It is on the Internet, so it must be true"
Don't disappoint the Internet !   :-)

Ha!  This is hilarious!

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1474 on: December 17, 2018, 11:18:12 AM »
Hello, I haven't joined a cohort thread yet.

My resignation date keeps moving.  My final day was originally going to be mid-May 2018 because it was the anniversary of a significant event in my life, then that day came and went.  I thought, how about the end of July, that way I can leave and enjoy the summer weather.  The frenetic pace of work started to slow down, making it more tolerable and I just let it ride through the summer.  I moved my last day to September, then mid-October. 

I definitely want to leave the job, but it turns out that making a big change after working in one place for 15+ years isn't easy.  It's comforting to have a routine and work-friends I see every day.  I have my "bare bones" passive income and budget set, and am ready to dive into projects that I don't have time for now due to the work schedule.  A line had to be drawn so I decided I'd go through the end of the year and leave on Dec 28.  Now that it's two weeks away it doesn't feel like the right time due to some details to sort out with paid time off, my supervisor being out on leave and delays in getting healthcare for next year.  Also January is the job's busiest time of year and I'd feel like a jerk to leave right before the workload increases.

So now I'm thinking the end of January 2019.  That way I'll help my team get through the month, plus since I was originally hired in January it will make my career exactly 16 years.  And that will be shortly before my birthday.  This is how I chose my last day of full time work (maybe it doesn't make sense).  I'm posting this here to help make myself accountable.

August

As someone who is OMY'ing it for really no great reason other than when I tried to quit, the bosses threw out the idea of a job change, which I'm currently trying out.  It's definitely better than before, but it's still not FIRE.  Part of it is it's a lot of easy money to turn down and I think I wasn't really mentally ready when I quit in September (after dithering about it for most of July & August), so I can definitely relate to having a date in mind but not really committing to it.  We'll see if I make my new date in 2019.

A couple of things I've been thinking about a lot that you might want to think about too:
1) Why didn't I quit on that original date?
2) What are the steps I need to take to be ready financially and emotionally to pull the trigger?

For 1) I'd say asset allocation is probably not where it needs to be, questioning whether I really have enough money because the money will never be as easy as it is right now (I'm pretty un-mustachian tbh, but I make a fair amount).  Healthcare continues to be a concern, even more so after Friday's decision.  Even if ACA survives, I think it's going to get more and more expensive, particularly for someone who FAT FIREs so probably won't be very subsidized.  An extra 6-12 months of earnings and theoretical market growth can defray that.  I also don't feel like DW was really, truly on board, but I think we've gotten past that.
2) Dr. Doom (livingafi.com) had a great post on what he went through prior to FIREing. https://livingafi.com/2015/01/20/midlife-fi-sis/ that is well worth reading.

forward

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1475 on: December 17, 2018, 08:22:36 PM »
Welcome @August!  Same situation here -- originally wanted to leave at the very beginning of January, now looking at the end of the month.  It really does get strangely difficult at the very end . . .

Thanks @Linda_Norway -- you are right that the working conditions at the end are critical.  For me they will be fine in terms of number of hours.  I don't work weekends, and I can come and go as I please.  No complaints there.

Hope everyone has a good week!

Reading everyone痴 progress is a settling exercise for me.  I wish I had a work environment where me bringing up leaving would bring about a request to stay a few more weeks or a nice transition etc.  When I put in my required (by contract) notice of 3 months, I fully expect to be escorted out the door within the day.  They will make it a very negative experience.  I feel like that should make it easier to do but I think I have some kind of Stockholm syndrome. 

Thanks for the well wishes on the week Trifele, I echo them to everyone.  I think this week may be one of the worst ones for me yet, I must keep reminding myself that I have a plan.

Trifle

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1476 on: December 18, 2018, 03:00:18 AM »

Reading everyone痴 progress is a settling exercise for me.  I wish I had a work environment where me bringing up leaving would bring about a request to stay a few more weeks or a nice transition etc.  When I put in my required (by contract) notice of 3 months, I fully expect to be escorted out the door within the day.  They will make it a very negative experience.  I feel like that should make it easier to do but I think I have some kind of Stockholm syndrome. 

Thanks for the well wishes on the week Trifele, I echo them to everyone.  I think this week may be one of the worst ones for me yet, I must keep reminding myself that I have a plan.

Oh @forward, that really sucks.  In theory that should make it easier, but I can see how that would mess with your head.  And it sounds like things are rough in general.  Do you have any time off coming up?   

Linea_Norway

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1477 on: December 18, 2018, 04:23:58 AM »
DH yesterday asked a critical question about my FIRE spreadsheet. I asked for help on the forum about how to solved the problem.

Last night I couldn't sleep. I spent the evening battling excel and getting nowhere at all. All night I had excel formulas in my head and worried about having to work for an additional number of years.

Now, with some help from the forum, I fixed a new spreadsheet, which I think is quite correct. Added all the taxes we pay in my country. I simplified it with making an overview of all years on 1 page, instead of 1 sheet per year that I had earlier.

The numbers are still in the same ballpark, luckily. Although we need to discuss the details (parameter values) at home.
My earlier sheet had 2019 as FIRE year, but with an income for 8 months. Now I just dropped 2019 from the spreadsheet. In 2019 we just need to earn enough to pay for the remaining of 2019 and then we can stop when we have earned enough.
The plan is to be able to not work at all from 2020. But it is clearly visible in my spreadsheet now that we can earn about $5000 per person tax free per year until 2033. So this opens up for some side-gigs, which might be smart to do.

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1478 on: December 18, 2018, 06:05:06 AM »
I'm teetering on officially removing myself from this cohort.

With the markets dropping this quickly, even at current valuations I am getting pushed into late 2019 before I will be at a 4% WR (individually). As a couple we are only at ~13x annual expenses right now.

Much of my decision will depend on what happens with the equities markets in the coming months/year.

dude

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1479 on: December 18, 2018, 06:58:18 AM »
I'm teetering on officially removing myself from this cohort.

With the markets dropping this quickly, even at current valuations I am getting pushed into late 2019 before I will be at a 4% WR (individually). As a couple we are only at ~13x annual expenses right now.

Much of my decision will depend on what happens with the equities markets in the coming months/year.

I was just going to ask that question on this forum -- have the recent market moves made anyone reconsider 2019?  I'm down close to $50k so far (could have been much worse, but I shifted to a 50/50 mix well over a year ago), but I've still got plenty of money to comfortably finance FIRE withdrawals IF it doesn't get too much worse. And then again, I've got a cash buffer (to supplement my pension) to get me through the remainder of 2019, if I have to. And at this point, I've locked in the notion that I'm retiring in May and really cannot fathom having to stick around, so I guess in the worst case I'd just have to tighten the belt and skip some travel next year. And at any rate, anything can happen between now and May. I don't see the kind of problems out there that existed in 2008 to make me think we're going to see that kind of drop again, but certainly 20% isn't out of the question as values revert to the mean.

Lews Therin

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1480 on: December 18, 2018, 07:05:35 AM »
I'm pushing three months, but only because that's worth almost 50k worth extra + a paid for move to hit an exact day (12 years in). (that's more than half my salary)

I'm also getting 17 vacation days for that 3 months, so it's all around ridiculous to stop early.

The market did help push me a bit, but I'd simply do next year's travel by doing house-sitting instead of AirBnB and it would cover the shortfall.

Or work 1 day a week in a brewery.

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1481 on: December 18, 2018, 10:01:48 AM »
@Lews Therin - sounds like a great tradeoff. I'm also in the process of trying to determine when to take my sabbatical to best optimize stock vesting & vacation time when/if I come back. It's a delicate dance, & I also would like my sabbatical to straddle both time with kids off of school, and time with kids in school. I'm hoping that will give me a good feel of what it would be like if I made this permanent.

SugarMountain

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1482 on: December 18, 2018, 10:08:39 AM »
I'm teetering on officially removing myself from this cohort.

With the markets dropping this quickly, even at current valuations I am getting pushed into late 2019 before I will be at a 4% WR (individually). As a couple we are only at ~13x annual expenses right now.

Much of my decision will depend on what happens with the equities markets in the coming months/year.

You are 31 and hopefully would have a 60+ year retirement.  I would posit that where the market is in 2019 is somewhat irrelevant to whether you will have a successful ER that lasts that long.  I think there is danger in taking 4% WR as any sort of guarantee and if speculators drive up stock prices enough that you're at 4% you're good to go.

(One interesting conundrum I've thought about some is I had planned to retire this summer.  The market is down about 12% since my targeted date, which was literally within like 2 days of the peak. If I retire tomorrow, does this mean I have 12% less to spend per year for the rest of my life?  Why or why not? I mean, I could pretend that I retired back then and if anything I'm better off with 3 more months of earnings and say it's just been a side gig.)

SugarMountain

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1483 on: December 18, 2018, 10:19:08 AM »
With the markets dropping this quickly

One other note.  This correction has not been very fast or deep by historical standards.  Heck, 2008 had multiple *days* where the market dropped almost 10%.

Not sure if the photo I attempted to add worked. You can see the chart for the S&P 500 annual returns here: https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1484 on: December 18, 2018, 10:36:00 AM »
@SugarMountain, oy!!! I struggle with the same conundrum.......but if you want to read up on it, ERN did a great piece on this and many other topics related to SWR's in a series here.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-intro/

The jist of it being such that if you retired 3 months ago valuations were X so an adjusted SWR would be Y, whereas if you retired after a 12% decline, your at lower valuations and thus your SWR would be theoretically higher.

It's really an excellent series, and takes weeks or even months to consume.

SugarMountain

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1485 on: December 18, 2018, 11:27:26 AM »
@SugarMountain, oy!!! I struggle with the same conundrum.......but if you want to read up on it, ERN did a great piece on this and many other topics related to SWR's in a series here.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-intro/

The jist of it being such that if you retired 3 months ago valuations were X so an adjusted SWR would be Y, whereas if you retired after a 12% decline, your at lower valuations and thus your SWR would be theoretically higher.

It's really an excellent series, and takes weeks or even months to consume.

Thanks for the reminder.  I looked at that a while ago, but didn't really read all of the way through.  I like the little cheatsheet right up front. 

Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1486 on: December 18, 2018, 12:24:34 PM »
The jist of it being such that if you retired 3 months ago valuations were X so an adjusted SWR would be Y, whereas if you retired after a 12% decline, your at lower valuations and thus your SWR would be theoretically higher.

This is definitely true in the abstract, but the recent drop is barely anything.  The total return on the S&P is only down a percent or two YTD.  Personally, I wouldn't go increasing my WR based on this little blip.  We're still in very high PE territory, so staying conservative (4% or lower) is prudent.

itchyfeet

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1487 on: December 18, 2018, 01:14:24 PM »
I am still on the fence as to whether to press GO.

The drop in markets and house prices in Sydney is playing on my mind.

The HR Director from HQ flew in and paid me a visit yesterday. Still plenty of plans for me in Megacorp if I was to choose to play along. Also, we are developing a very large project atm, which is interesting stuff, mentally challenging and enjoyable.

I have made a list of pros and cons of FIREing in June 2019 as planned. Plenty of arguements both ways. Not such an easy choice and made harder with no stash growth this year (savings < losses)

DW is completely locked on June and doesn稚 want to hear of my dithering. Happy wife, happy life I guess. Maybe this is the deciding factor.

I wish I could just shake this nagging feeling that I will regret walking away from my current job right at this time.

 Is their an acronym for pre FIRE jitters....

How about this Syndrome Of FIRE Trepidatiion.... also referred to as SOFT.


Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1488 on: December 18, 2018, 02:25:44 PM »
Is their an acronym for pre FIRE jitters....

How about this Syndrome Of FIRE Trepidatiion.... also referred to as SOFT.

I think it's generally referred to as One More Year syndrome.

forward

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1489 on: December 18, 2018, 04:41:26 PM »

Reading everyone痴 progress is a settling exercise for me.  I wish I had a work environment where me bringing up leaving would bring about a request to stay a few more weeks or a nice transition etc.  When I put in my required (by contract) notice of 3 months, I fully expect to be escorted out the door within the day.  They will make it a very negative experience.  I feel like that should make it easier to do but I think I have some kind of Stockholm syndrome. 

Thanks for the well wishes on the week Trifele, I echo them to everyone.  I think this week may be one of the worst ones for me yet, I must keep reminding myself that I have a plan.

I have the time available but being allowed to take it is another question.  There is good reason to want to leave.

Oh @forward, that really sucks.  In theory that should make it easier, but I can see how that would mess with your head.  And it sounds like things are rough in general.  Do you have any time off coming up?

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1490 on: December 18, 2018, 05:38:59 PM »
I was just going to ask that question on this forum -- have the recent market moves made anyone reconsider 2019?  I'm down close to $50k so far (could have been much worse, but I shifted to a 50/50 mix well over a year ago), but I've still got plenty of money to comfortably finance FIRE withdrawals IF it doesn't get too much worse. And then again, I've got a cash buffer (to supplement my pension) to get me through the remainder of 2019, if I have to. And at this point, I've locked in the notion that I'm retiring in May and really cannot fathom having to stick around, so I guess in the worst case I'd just have to tighten the belt and skip some travel next year. And at any rate, anything can happen between now and May. I don't see the kind of problems out there that existed in 2008 to make me think we're going to see that kind of drop again, but certainly 20% isn't out of the question as values revert to the mean.

A similar question was asked recently about a potential 30 to 40% drop.  For me,  whether it goes back up within a few months or drops 30%+, I might put in 10 more months of full time instead of FIREing and attempting to go part time for those 10 months (which was never guaranteed), partly because I like my job well enough that I would like to keep working a while longer.  The full time choice is the only guarantee I can stay on.  The ACA uncertainty concerns me some as well, although I'm optimistic.  I would say the recent downturn doesn't play as much of a factor, although it gets my attention.  Back in July, I moved from 80% to 60% equities, and I'm still down six figures since late September!  I calculated that drop in value out to be almost 8 years of my barebones expenses, and 2 to 3 years of my planned retirement spending.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2018, 05:43:00 PM by DreamFIRE »

dude

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1491 on: December 19, 2018, 07:53:07 AM »
I was just going to ask that question on this forum -- have the recent market moves made anyone reconsider 2019?  I'm down close to $50k so far (could have been much worse, but I shifted to a 50/50 mix well over a year ago), but I've still got plenty of money to comfortably finance FIRE withdrawals IF it doesn't get too much worse. And then again, I've got a cash buffer (to supplement my pension) to get me through the remainder of 2019, if I have to. And at this point, I've locked in the notion that I'm retiring in May and really cannot fathom having to stick around, so I guess in the worst case I'd just have to tighten the belt and skip some travel next year. And at any rate, anything can happen between now and May. I don't see the kind of problems out there that existed in 2008 to make me think we're going to see that kind of drop again, but certainly 20% isn't out of the question as values revert to the mean.

A similar question was asked recently about a potential 30 to 40% drop.  For me,  whether it goes back up within a few months or drops 30%+, I might put in 10 more months of full time instead of FIREing and attempting to go part time for those 10 months (which was never guaranteed), partly because I like my job well enough that I would like to keep working a while longer.  The full time choice is the only guarantee I can stay on.  The ACA uncertainty concerns me some as well, although I'm optimistic.  I would say the recent downturn doesn't play as much of a factor, although it gets my attention.  Back in July, I moved from 80% to 60% equities, and I'm still down six figures since late September!  I calculated that drop in value out to be almost 8 years of my barebones expenses, and 2 to 3 years of my planned retirement spending.

DreamFIRE, I feel for folks who have to contend with ACA uncertainty (and health care insurance in general). I'm super fortunate to have a reasonably priced employer-provided retiree health care plan, and that certainly mitigates a lot of the stress of retirement planning.

A six-figure drop since September even with only 60% allocated! You've obviously got a nice nut stashed away!

dude

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1492 on: December 19, 2018, 08:07:13 AM »
I have lost 19% of my stache since the end of September.  Painful.  I have too much exposure to the financials and tech (and this week, Johnson&Johnson) in my Vanguard funds, and too much single stock AAPL that I have had for more than a decade.  I am still up very big on AAPL over that long time but it has been a steep drop from the high.  My plan for a while now has been to pile up a bunch of cash so that I wouldn't have to sell any stock for the first couple of years after RE in case I got hit with a bad sequence of returns right out of the gate. 

I am tied to the mast (as JL Collins says) and I try to concentrate on not where the V-funds and AAPL are today, but where they will be several years down the road.  With a growing cash pile I could wait at least 2 years before having to sell and I would not remodel the kitchen as planned and just hang tight until the tide rises.  In theory I should be putting money into the fallen market to enjoy the inevitable rise but in these last months the cash pile is needed to round out my allocations.  I will have to pick up a few cheaper crumbs with dividend reinvestment for now.     

So I do have a plan, but it is pretty scary to think about quitting a high paying job when the market it sliding.  It was a lot easier to contemplate when I was riding high.  If things continue I am afraid I will be a 2019 flunky and chicken out, but I also know this is an excellent exercise in understanding why the 4% rule works through horrible economic times.         

Ouch, 19%? That's a steep drop. I just did the numbers and I'm only down 6.2% since the end of Sept. However, because of contributions (and a 2.8% gain in my bond allocation), I'm actually up $22,142 in my main account for the year.

One of the things I've been giving some thought to is dropping my 401k contributions to just the matching level (5%), and banking the difference (a lot since I do the max + catch ups, i.e., $24,500 this year) between now and May when I retire. I'd lose the tax benefit obviously, but because I'd be retiring in May, my income will be considerably lower next year so it might not be that big a tax hit. I'll have to crunch the numbers in more detail before I decide.

FIRE 20/20

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1493 on: December 19, 2018, 09:51:44 AM »
I'm teetering on officially removing myself from this cohort.

With the markets dropping this quickly, even at current valuations I am getting pushed into late 2019 before I will be at a 4% WR (individually). As a couple we are only at ~13x annual expenses right now.

Much of my decision will depend on what happens with the equities markets in the coming months/year.

I was just going to ask that question on this forum -- have the recent market moves made anyone reconsider 2019?  I'm down close to $50k so far (could have been much worse, but I shifted to a 50/50 mix well over a year ago), but I've still got plenty of money to comfortably finance FIRE withdrawals IF it doesn't get too much worse. And then again, I've got a cash buffer (to supplement my pension) to get me through the remainder of 2019, if I have to. And at this point, I've locked in the notion that I'm retiring in May and really cannot fathom having to stick around, so I guess in the worst case I'd just have to tighten the belt and skip some travel next year. And at any rate, anything can happen between now and May. I don't see the kind of problems out there that existed in 2008 to make me think we're going to see that kind of drop again, but certainly 20% isn't out of the question as values revert to the mean.

I think there are two pieces to this.  One is the emotional, and one is the logical.  Emotionally it sucks to see our numbers drop from their peak values, and the fear that's being sold in the news makes it worse.  No matter how things are going, I think most of us are going to be nervous and seeing the markets drop will certainly make that worse. 

However, logically it seems to me that most or all of us in the 2019 cohort should be well past the point where we care at all about recent returns.  Negative or near zero returns for a *decade* have occurred in the past and our plans need to be robust enough for that kind of market performance again.  Each of us will have different ways of dealing with it, but we should all have some kind of backup plan.  If we're ready for a decade of zero or negative returns then just one year of ~0% returns shouldn't cause us to sweat at all.  Whether your back-up plan is geographic arbitrage, cutting expenses, low SWR, a side hustle, real estate, or whatever, it should hopefully be robust enough that the recent turmoil should just be noise.  With the recent drop we're still at a 10 year CAPE value over 28, and the only time it's been higher is around the crashes of 1929 and 1999.  Even the roll-off of the 2008/2009 horrible earnings will only contribute another 2-3 point reduction so it will take further market drops to get us below 25. 

I'm not trying to discourage anyone from FIRE, but I do think this is a great opportunity to make sure our plans are robust enough to get us through a potential extended period of low returns.  It's also a good time to figure out how to deal with the emotions surrounding this kind of volatility, because even if things start to look rosy tomorrow we should expect that during our first decade of FIRE we'll have many, many months like the couple we've just had.  It would suck to FIRE and then spend significant amounts of time panicking about market performance. 

Loren Ver

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1494 on: December 19, 2018, 10:15:25 AM »
@FIRE 20/20 I really appreciate what you just said.  The timing was also fantastic as I was just in one of my investment account selling enough to cover 2019 living expenses + 2 years of mortgage payments + a cash buffer.  Whew!  I picked the account that was the least negative for the year (and had the right cost basis to avoid taxes). 

I really don't like selling at a low, especially knowing that it could be back in bullish positive territory as early as next week (or tomorrow, or next month), but we need the money for 2019, and it all has to clear to be in this years income, so, we followed the plan. 

If I had sold before this recent slump, it all would have come from 2018 gains with room to spare, and that would have been lovely, but that isn't what happened so, eh. 

Loren

Lews Therin

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1495 on: December 19, 2018, 11:35:26 AM »
Depends on how early we were FIRE-ing. I personally am on the edge of lean-fire, so going down by 10% is a significant hit, there isn't a ton of cuts possible.

On the other hand, I'm not adding an extra day of normal work after accessing all my bonuses, no matter what the market does.

Had the market continued going gang-busters, I probably would've passed on my extra bonus for 3 months, but now it's just too tempting, and more than covers the drawback of the market.

dude

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1496 on: December 19, 2018, 12:47:06 PM »
I'm teetering on officially removing myself from this cohort.

With the markets dropping this quickly, even at current valuations I am getting pushed into late 2019 before I will be at a 4% WR (individually). As a couple we are only at ~13x annual expenses right now.

Much of my decision will depend on what happens with the equities markets in the coming months/year.

I was just going to ask that question on this forum -- have the recent market moves made anyone reconsider 2019?  I'm down close to $50k so far (could have been much worse, but I shifted to a 50/50 mix well over a year ago), but I've still got plenty of money to comfortably finance FIRE withdrawals IF it doesn't get too much worse. And then again, I've got a cash buffer (to supplement my pension) to get me through the remainder of 2019, if I have to. And at this point, I've locked in the notion that I'm retiring in May and really cannot fathom having to stick around, so I guess in the worst case I'd just have to tighten the belt and skip some travel next year. And at any rate, anything can happen between now and May. I don't see the kind of problems out there that existed in 2008 to make me think we're going to see that kind of drop again, but certainly 20% isn't out of the question as values revert to the mean.

I think there are two pieces to this.  One is the emotional, and one is the logical.  Emotionally it sucks to see our numbers drop from their peak values, and the fear that's being sold in the news makes it worse.  No matter how things are going, I think most of us are going to be nervous and seeing the markets drop will certainly make that worse. 

However, logically it seems to me that most or all of us in the 2019 cohort should be well past the point where we care at all about recent returns.  Negative or near zero returns for a *decade* have occurred in the past and our plans need to be robust enough for that kind of market performance again.  Each of us will have different ways of dealing with it, but we should all have some kind of backup plan.  If we're ready for a decade of zero or negative returns then just one year of ~0% returns shouldn't cause us to sweat at all.  Whether your back-up plan is geographic arbitrage, cutting expenses, low SWR, a side hustle, real estate, or whatever, it should hopefully be robust enough that the recent turmoil should just be noise.  With the recent drop we're still at a 10 year CAPE value over 28, and the only time it's been higher is around the crashes of 1929 and 1999.  Even the roll-off of the 2008/2009 horrible earnings will only contribute another 2-3 point reduction so it will take further market drops to get us below 25. 

I'm not trying to discourage anyone from FIRE, but I do think this is a great opportunity to make sure our plans are robust enough to get us through a potential extended period of low returns.  It's also a good time to figure out how to deal with the emotions surrounding this kind of volatility, because even if things start to look rosy tomorrow we should expect that during our first decade of FIRE we'll have many, many months like the couple we've just had.  It would suck to FIRE and then spend significant amounts of time panicking about market performance.

Good point. For me, I only need a 1.8 - 2% withdrawal rate for the first 8 years of retirement, so I'm really not that concerned about market moves too much. After those first 8 years, I'll be 62 with just 5 years to go before I collect a max SS benefit (currently around $33k), so my 401k only has to do any heavy lifting from 62 to 67. I'm reasonable confident I'll have more in my account at that point than what I started with, so should have the option of taking 4% - 6% for those 5 years until SS kicks in.

SugarMountain

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1497 on: December 19, 2018, 03:56:15 PM »
We're now down nearly 14% from the peak. I would posit that this is a healthy thing.  I felt like we were definitely getting into bubble territory.  The estimated P/E ratio for the S&P 500 for 2018 at today's close price is down to about 15.8.  This is way healthier than when it was over 20 not so long ago and is close to the historic mean.  My take is basically the market got about a year+ ahead of itself.  I am putting my money where my mouth is and dumped a bunch of cash into VOO on Monday. It's down a bit, but I don't really care. I'm pretty sure it will be up in 20-30 years when I need it, hopefully having increased by historical averages and is at 10x what I bought it for on Monday.  That's the thing to think about, where is this going to be 10, 20, 30, 40 years from now?  Will today's price matter?

I might buy more tomorrow. (I realize I shouldn't try to time the market, but timing worked out such that I have more in cash than I'd like and I was holding it aside for a potential investment which is now not going to happen for other reasons.  I like buying on dips. That's about as close to timing the market as I get these days.)

Now it does suck psychologically for those in the 2018/2019 cohorts, that's for sure.  And it may continue to go down, lots of things point to a recession coming, the yield curve inversion, interest rates going up, 9 years of uninterrupted growth etc.  But, as someone else pointed out above, this is a blip.  A minor correction.  So don't panic, keep calm and carry on.  This doesn't feel *anything* like 2000 or 2008. Or 1987 for that matter. The market had dropped 33% from its peak that year on black Friday with a close of 224.  It's now 31 years later it's "collapsed" to 2500 or 12x+ (more if you reinvested dividends).

Now, if you're in your 30s and were planning a lean FIRE in 2019 right at 4% and the market correction has moved it so you're closer to a 4.5% WR?  I would definitely be looking at some contingencies whether that's OMY, planning to go part time for other income, or finding additional ways to cut spending.  But then I know personally I would never have the stomach for that model, so take this advice with a grain of salt.

DreamFIRE

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1498 on: December 19, 2018, 06:40:44 PM »
I was just going to ask that question on this forum -- have the recent market moves made anyone reconsider 2019?  I'm down close to $50k so far (could have been much worse, but I shifted to a 50/50 mix well over a year ago), but I've still got plenty of money to comfortably finance FIRE withdrawals IF it doesn't get too much worse. And then again, I've got a cash buffer (to supplement my pension) to get me through the remainder of 2019, if I have to. And at this point, I've locked in the notion that I'm retiring in May and really cannot fathom having to stick around, so I guess in the worst case I'd just have to tighten the belt and skip some travel next year. And at any rate, anything can happen between now and May. I don't see the kind of problems out there that existed in 2008 to make me think we're going to see that kind of drop again, but certainly 20% isn't out of the question as values revert to the mean.

A similar question was asked recently about a potential 30 to 40% drop.  For me,  whether it goes back up within a few months or drops 30%+, I might put in 10 more months of full time instead of FIREing and attempting to go part time for those 10 months (which was never guaranteed), partly because I like my job well enough that I would like to keep working a while longer.  The full time choice is the only guarantee I can stay on.  The ACA uncertainty concerns me some as well, although I'm optimistic.  I would say the recent downturn doesn't play as much of a factor, although it gets my attention.  Back in July, I moved from 80% to 60% equities, and I'm still down six figures since late September!  I calculated that drop in value out to be almost 8 years of my barebones expenses, and 2 to 3 years of my planned retirement spending.

DreamFIRE, I feel for folks who have to contend with ACA uncertainty (and health care insurance in general). I'm super fortunate to have a reasonably priced employer-provided retiree health care plan, and that certainly mitigates a lot of the stress of retirement planning.

A six-figure drop since September even with only 60% allocated! You've obviously got a nice nut stashed away!

Yeah, my Vanguard brokerage account alone has lost 6 figures - down about 11.7% since Sept. 20.  It's about 75% equities though.  My work retirement account is under 50% equities and has lost about 7.7% (excluding contributions of about $16,000 since Sept.)  Of course, this will be all I've got to FIRE on until I take full SS 15 years into FIRE - no pensions, but it's still more than double what I need to pay the barebones.  A 4% SWR allocates more spending for discretionary spending than barebones expenses.

itchyfeet

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1499 on: December 19, 2018, 08:53:07 PM »
Six months to go from today 😬

Looking at where I値l be (assuming zero returns over the 6 months)

- I値l have enough to buy a nice home
- I値l have enough for my barebones budget at a 4% wr
- I値l be looking at a 6% wr on my discretionary budget

Not where I was hoping to be. We値l be a little more dependent on DW痴 casual income and any other income that might come our way over the next 40 years, if we still want to spend as freely as I hoped. Alternatively we might need to trim the budget a little