Author Topic: 2019 fire cohort  (Read 142298 times)

Lews Therin

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #500 on: January 18, 2018, 12:11:07 PM »
So you are going for a 3% SWR Eric?

(wanting to be able to take 20% haircut = 3%SWR)

Bateaux

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #501 on: January 18, 2018, 12:35:43 PM »
It's difficult.   I woke up this morning, checked Mint.  I'm within 65k of the 2000k goal.  That first 65k was a slog.  The last 65k could be here in weeks.  Cray, Cray market these days.  Could hold out for 2020.  Won't know till I know.

Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #502 on: January 18, 2018, 12:44:33 PM »
So you are going for a 3% SWR Eric?

(wanting to be able to take 20% haircut = 3%SWR)

Kind of?  I'm actually planning a variable withdrawal rate, not a static one.  My baseline looks like it'll be around 3.5%, but my spending "floor" is around 2% of my starting balance.  My spending "ceiling" is around 4.5%.  My spending amount will fluctuate based on market returns.  This is partially because I will have the ability to decrease my expenses without really taking a lifestyle hit just by moving locations, as I plan to do the perpetual travel thing.  It's also partially because I'll need my portfolio to grow if I want to settle back in the US at some point if the travel thing ever gets old, and cutting spending when the markets are down is one of the best ways to ensure growth over time.  But of course I want to spend time in Western Europe too, so the variable spending thing seems to strike the best balance.

Lews Therin

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #503 on: January 18, 2018, 12:48:11 PM »
So you are going for a 3% SWR Eric?

(wanting to be able to take 20% haircut = 3%SWR)

Kind of?  I'm actually planning a variable withdrawal rate, not a static one.  My baseline looks like it'll be around 3.5%, but my spending "floor" is around 2% of my starting balance.  My spending "ceiling" is around 4.5%.  My spending amount will fluctuate based on market returns.  This is partially because I will have the ability to decrease my expenses without really taking a lifestyle hit just by moving locations, as I plan to do the perpetual travel thing.  It's also partially because I'll need my portfolio to grow if I want to settle back in the US at some point if the travel thing ever gets old, and cutting spending when the markets are down is one of the best ways to ensure growth over time.  But of course I want to spend time in Western Europe too, so the variable spending thing seems to strike the best balance.

It was just to point out that if you want to be able to take a haircut, it means you are planning for an extremely safe/never ever run out of money, even if you never make another $.

Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #504 on: January 18, 2018, 12:55:29 PM »
So you are going for a 3% SWR Eric?

(wanting to be able to take 20% haircut = 3%SWR)

Kind of?  I'm actually planning a variable withdrawal rate, not a static one.  My baseline looks like it'll be around 3.5%, but my spending "floor" is around 2% of my starting balance.  My spending "ceiling" is around 4.5%.  My spending amount will fluctuate based on market returns.  This is partially because I will have the ability to decrease my expenses without really taking a lifestyle hit just by moving locations, as I plan to do the perpetual travel thing.  It's also partially because I'll need my portfolio to grow if I want to settle back in the US at some point if the travel thing ever gets old, and cutting spending when the markets are down is one of the best ways to ensure growth over time.  But of course I want to spend time in Western Europe too, so the variable spending thing seems to strike the best balance.

It was just to point out that if you want to be able to take a haircut, it means you are planning for an extremely safe/never ever run out of money, even if you never make another $.

I certainly expect to never run out of money, but I want the option to spend more in my later years, so it's not necessarily extremely safe.  A lower WR is only really safe if you plan to continue lower spending.  Right?

PhilB

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #505 on: January 18, 2018, 03:04:39 PM »
I was *just* wondering if any of you were considering moving up your timeline due to the recent outsized market returns.

I've personally already hit my "number" (in 2017, no less), but the only reason is due to all of the heavy lifting by Mr. Market.  Looking at current valuations, I'm pretty sure I'll end up happier when I can take a ~20% portfolio haircut without worrying a bit.  And I won't even have to work any longer.  So I'm staying the course with the original plan.  I have really started slacking off at work though...
That's a very fair question. As it happens, I don't feed actual investment valuations into my retirement spending model.  That model is based on the 2014 values when I started modelling, plus contributions and a budgeted 4% real return on equities.  I do track those budget numbers against actuals in a separate spreadsheet (actuals are currently ahead of budget by about 2 years worth of spending), but I try to base my decisions on the budgeted numbers.  Although I am supposedly ignoring those 'excess' gains in all my assessments of how much I'll have in retirement, I'm not naïve enough to think that it doesn't have some influence on my thinking and I'm sure I wouldn't have the confidence to go if I was 2 years' money behind budget instead of 2 years ahead. 

Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #506 on: January 18, 2018, 05:03:50 PM »
I was *just* wondering if any of you were considering moving up your timeline due to the recent outsized market returns.

I've personally already hit my "number" (in 2017, no less), but the only reason is due to all of the heavy lifting by Mr. Market.  Looking at current valuations, I'm pretty sure I'll end up happier when I can take a ~20% portfolio haircut without worrying a bit.  And I won't even have to work any longer.  So I'm staying the course with the original plan.  I have really started slacking off at work though...
That's a very fair question. As it happens, I don't feed actual investment valuations into my retirement spending model.  That model is based on the 2014 values when I started modelling, plus contributions and a budgeted 4% real return on equities.  I do track those budget numbers against actuals in a separate spreadsheet (actuals are currently ahead of budget by about 2 years worth of spending), but I try to base my decisions on the budgeted numbers.  Although I am supposedly ignoring those 'excess' gains in all my assessments of how much I'll have in retirement, I'm not naïve enough to think that it doesn't have some influence on my thinking and I'm sure I wouldn't have the confidence to go if I was 2 years' money behind budget instead of 2 years ahead.

Are you even supposed to be posting in this thread anymore?  :)

That's a unique approach.  Although I guess it's just a fancy way of mentally preparing for the next downturn.  Giving yourself a haircut, so to speak.  I kind of make a mental adjustment of stuff too, so I look at my portfolio as $900k in retirement funds and $200k in "extra" money.  I know it's not 100% rational, but then again, who is?  Maybe Sol.  That's about it.

Trifele

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #507 on: January 19, 2018, 05:13:09 AM »
Mini celebration time!  Checked our accounts yesterday, and we passed $750k, which is our "number."   :)  All contributions and gains from here until FIRE are "extra."  I feel really good about that, especially with the uncertainty around health insurance.  It'll be nice to have a bigger 'stache than I think we need.   

I have 3 things I have to do before I can pull the plug, and hitting our savings goal was #1.  Check!  #2 is pay off the mortgage (which should be gone in July), and #3 is finish cash-flowing our crazy major house renovation.   That third one is the fuzziest in terms of a completion date, but we are gunning for end of this year.   

I may be able to FIRE earlier than I had planned.  Doubt I would go this year, but maybe earlier in 2019.  Maybe spring? It'd be nice to enjoy the summer as a new FIREee.   

Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #508 on: January 19, 2018, 10:59:36 AM »
I may be able to FIRE earlier than I had planned.  Doubt I would go this year, but maybe earlier in 2019.  Maybe spring? It'd be nice to enjoy the summer as a new FIREee.   

My thoughts exactly!  Then you can ask yourself questions like "Is the air sweeter because I just FIRE'd or because it's finally summer?"

madamwitty

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #509 on: January 19, 2018, 02:34:58 PM »
DH and I have decided to reduce our working hours now (20 hours per week, each) with the tradeoff of delaying FIRE by a year or two. I am really excited about this decision and the fact that it's even an option for us. Before, afternoons at home with me and 3 kids felt like a drag, but now with DH home with us, it feels like every afternoon is a weekend!

2019 was a "one less year" target for me, now I am feeling so much better about work - excited, even - so I don't feel like that's needed. I'm going to stick with 2020 as a target and see how things go. I think 2019 is pretty unlikely for me now, so you can take me off the list (but I say that with a smile!)

Parizade

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #510 on: January 24, 2018, 06:14:01 AM »
I am feeling so much better about work - excited, even

I wish I felt that way. This is how I thought I would feel about my last 16 months of work
https://youtu.be/4q0-k8_90UM

this is how I actually feel
https://youtu.be/BKIgv8AhffA

edgema

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #511 on: January 24, 2018, 07:18:27 AM »
Parizade - I really love the second link, it properly made me chuckle. It feels like such a slog no matter how much I rationalize how short a time 15 months is (well 14 months and 6 days to be precise)

TartanTallulah

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #512 on: January 24, 2018, 07:51:18 AM »
I may be signing back on here. The thing I knew was most likely to put a spoke in my wheel for retiring in 2018 has happened. There was nothing I could have done to prevent it.

I'm at the drawing board, though, scratching away as hard as I can.

Parizade

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #513 on: January 24, 2018, 08:32:33 AM »
Parizade - I really love the second link, it properly made me chuckle.

Humor is the only thing that helps. Well, that and the thought of fresh strawberries with cream. I'll have to make that my victory treat.

Parizade

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #514 on: January 24, 2018, 09:46:41 AM »
I may be signing back on here. The thing I knew was most likely to put a spoke in my wheel for retiring in 2018 has happened. There was nothing I could have done to prevent it.

I'm at the drawing board, though, scratching away as hard as I can.

What a bummer Tallulah! Welcome anyway :-(

Trifele

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #515 on: January 24, 2018, 04:54:40 PM »

This is how I thought I would feel about my last 16 months of work
https://youtu.be/4q0-k8_90UM

this is how I actually feel
https://youtu.be/BKIgv8AhffA

Loong work day today. Having a cocktail to unwind. Your videos made me laugh -- thanks!

VoteCthulu

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #516 on: January 24, 2018, 09:28:52 PM »
Originally I was thinking 2020 would be the year, but hoping to get there a year earlier.

Can anyone planning to FIRE in 2019 share some of their numbers?  Net worth, savings rate, annual spend, invested assets (stocks and bonds), rental property & income (if any), mortgage (rate and amount left), kids?
Sure, here's where I'm at:
Net worth $805k
savings rate 58%
annual spend 40k
invested assets (stocks and bonds) $525k / $52k
rental property & income (if any) None
mortgage (rate and amount left) 3% / $105k
kids? None that I'm aware of

edgema

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #517 on: January 25, 2018, 01:58:59 AM »
I am going to run with the theme. This is how the last year feels to me.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTn1v5TGK_w

p.s. Whilst I am making a joke, I post this respectfully having first seen it about 8 years ago when I was doing a lot of triathlons myself. Says something of grit and determination (with a dose of complete lunacy!)

Trifele

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #518 on: January 25, 2018, 03:17:08 AM »
I am going to run with the theme. This is how the last year feels to me.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTn1v5TGK_w

p.s. Whilst I am making a joke, I post this respectfully having first seen it about 8 years ago when I was doing a lot of triathlons myself. Says something of grit and determination (with a dose of complete lunacy!)

Holy shite.  Hope you don't REALLY feel that way Edgema.  We will get there.  We're all crawling beside you. 

@Pizza Steve -- thanks for dropping in to offer encouragement!  Huge congratulations!
« Last Edit: January 31, 2018, 01:28:49 AM by Trifele »

Parizade

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #519 on: January 25, 2018, 05:32:19 AM »

This is how I thought I would feel about my last 16 months of work
https://youtu.be/4q0-k8_90UM

this is how I actually feel
https://youtu.be/BKIgv8AhffA

Loong work day today. Having a cocktail to unwind. Your videos made me laugh -- thanks!
There is light at the end!  I get my finger bit off in 2 days (2018 cohort offering encouragement)....stay strong....loved the dog sledding.  My last 30 days went fast.

Cheers Trifele! I've only budgeted $25/mo for alcohol and bars - might need to bump those numbers up LOL

PizzaSteve, CONGRATULATIONS and thanks for the encouragement. The closer I get to FIRE the further off it seems.

Parizade

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #520 on: January 25, 2018, 05:55:44 AM »
I am going to run with the theme. This is how the last year feels to me.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTn1v5TGK_w

p.s. Whilst I am making a joke, I post this respectfully having first seen it about 8 years ago when I was doing a lot of triathlons myself. Says something of grit and determination (with a dose of complete lunacy!)

Excellent choice of video edgema, I still have plenty of calories to burn but my motivation for work has evaporated and all my younger coworkers are zooming past me with their ambition and enthusiasm.

I've heard that my employer is offering older workers "buy outs" to encourage them to retire early in other areas of the company. Oh how I wish they would offer that to me, but no. I did too good of a job making my skill set valuable, now I'm stuck.

itchyfeet

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #521 on: January 25, 2018, 10:16:03 AM »
Lol Awesome videos.

I had a good day at work today, and drove home dreaming that I might be able to achieve some big things this year at work and go out on a high......

But 90% of the time I feel like poor old Frodo, suffering on the slopes of an insurmountable mountain, just waiting for the end and the suffering to be over.

.....but Sometimes ......very rarely........ there is a small part of me that is subconsciously trying to give me justification to keep working. The inner gollem is today whispering “sneaky little MMM forum, wicked, trixie, false MMM forum. They will fool you, cheat you. False!!! Lies!!! Work is your friend....the top is in”

Deary me, obviously completely burnt out. Haha 🤣

Parizade

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #522 on: January 25, 2018, 10:25:59 AM »
The inner gollem is today whispering “sneaky little MMM forum, wicked, trixie, false MMM forum. They will fool you, cheat you. False!!! Lies!!! Work is your friend....the top is in”

Deary me, obviously completely burnt out. Haha 🤣

Literally laughed out loud at the wicked trixie false MMM comment. I have what most would consider a cushy job, WFH earning 6 figures at tasks I would do for fun if I wasn't getting paid with people I actually like. On a good day that gollum voice nags away inside my head too. My annual review is scheduled for tomorrow, if they give me another raise and bonus (which is likely) gollum will get even louder for a while.

Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #523 on: January 25, 2018, 11:40:58 AM »
The inner gollem is today whispering “sneaky little MMM forum, wicked, trixie, false MMM forum. They will fool you, cheat you. False!!! Lies!!! Work is your friend....the top is in”

Deary me, obviously completely burnt out. Haha 🤣

Literally laughed out loud at the wicked trixie false MMM comment. I have what most would consider a cushy job, WFH earning 6 figures at tasks I would do for fun if I wasn't getting paid with people I actually like. On a good day that gollum voice nags away inside my head too. My annual review is scheduled for tomorrow, if they give me another raise and bonus (which is likely) gollum will get even louder for a while.

Don't forget about The Shire and second breakfast.

Parizade

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #524 on: January 25, 2018, 12:19:44 PM »
Don't forget about The Shire and second breakfast.

Trying hard to remember the taste of strawberries, the touch of grass, and the lights of the party tree...but 16 months seems sooooooo long to wait

TartanTallulah

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #525 on: January 25, 2018, 01:35:46 PM »
I may be signing back on here. The thing I knew was most likely to put a spoke in my wheel for retiring in 2018 has happened. There was nothing I could have done to prevent it.

I'm at the drawing board, though, scratching away as hard as I can.

What a bummer Tallulah! Welcome anyway :-(

Thanks, Parizade :-)

I'm being Zen and stoical about it. Back to 31st March 2019 for me. It's not so very far away, and I'm sure I'll be able to find a use for an extra nine paychecks.

Parizade

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #526 on: January 25, 2018, 01:38:54 PM »
I'm sure I'll be able to find a use for an extra nine paychecks.

You've got a great attitude Tallulah, if it was me I think I'd need to spend those extra 9 paychecks on therapy

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #527 on: January 25, 2018, 03:15:06 PM »
I found out today that I will be earning my 40th SS credit on March 31st 2019, so technically if I win the lottery between now and then, I can retire =P

A more likely scenario is getting fired/laid off from my current job.

Is anyone planning a leanfire? Basically retiring on an amount that requires a WR% greater than 4% with the assumption that you will return to some sort of work, whether it's part time for a longer period, or full time for another year or two?

SO and I are currently sitting ~$460k with an annual spend of ~$48k, FU$, but not FI$. We may be able to get to $550-600k by 2019 if the market cooperates, and with slow travel/geographical arbitrage should get our spending down to $36-40k/yr which would mean a 6-7.25% WR

Bateaux

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #528 on: January 25, 2018, 04:53:46 PM »
Less than 50k to minimum FIRE goal.  Unless the crash comes soon.  I'd wished more answers would have presented themselves by now, maybe they never will.  I doubt one more year/years will make much difference.  The easiest thing is to work till 2023 and age 55 for benefits.  Giving up 5 more years for security only guarantees I'll lose healthy time.

Trifele

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #529 on: January 26, 2018, 04:21:30 AM »
Is anyone planning a leanfire? Basically retiring on an amount that requires a WR% greater than 4% with the assumption that you will return to some sort of work, whether it's part time for a longer period, or full time for another year or two?

Yes, sort of.  I'll be pulling the plug with a smaller 'stache than most on this thread ($750k and a paid off house).  The plan is not to touch the 'stache at all for a while, as I'll be keeping my part time side gig, which should cover expenses.   So 0% withdrawal rate.  :)   On a different thread I heard this strategy referred to as 'Coast Fire.'  Quit full time job, work a minimal amount to cover expenses, and let the 'stache work in the background.   

Trifele

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #530 on: January 26, 2018, 07:13:42 AM »
Can anyone planning to FIRE in 2019 share some of their numbers?  Net worth, savings rate, annual spend, invested assets (stocks and bonds), rental property & income (if any), mortgage (rate and amount left), kids?

Here are our numbers, FWIW:
Net worth -- $1.2M
savings rate -- Much lower than usual because of unusual activities in the last two years, mostly cash flowing a house construction.  Would be ~60% if things were 'normal'. 
annual spend -- ~30k in a 'normal' year, not including mortgage payment which will be gone soon
invested assets (stocks and bonds) -- $750k not including kids' 529 accounts
rental property & income (if any) -- None
mortgage (rate and amount left) -- 3% / $30k
kids? -- 2.  College savings target has been met, and saved amt. is included in total NW.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2018, 12:49:46 PM by Trifele »

itchyfeet

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #531 on: January 26, 2018, 11:25:07 AM »
We will try and get our stash to a level that permits $70K a year spending, which will allow for 4-6 months travel per year plus a home base.

Bateaux

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #532 on: January 26, 2018, 01:26:18 PM »
Reaching minimum investment FIRE stash soon of 2 million.   Shooting for 2.5 milion stash and potential 100k withdrawal if desired.  Living on less than that now. 

Parizade

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #533 on: January 29, 2018, 06:39:30 AM »
Happy Monday 2019 cohort. Got this one stuck in my head today:
https://youtu.be/SsmVgoXDq2w

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #534 on: January 29, 2018, 11:06:27 AM »
 
Quote
Reaching minimum investment FIRE stash soon of 2 million.   Shooting for 2.5 milion stash and potential 100k withdrawal if desired.  Living on less than that now.

Keep going Bateaux.  It will come sooner than you think.  We have the exact same plan and we just hit 2.5M this month.  Retire date is now April 6th, 2018.

Cornbread OMalley

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #535 on: January 30, 2018, 09:49:16 PM »
Originally I was thinking 2020 would be the year, but hoping to get there a year earlier.

Can anyone planning to FIRE in 2019 share some of their numbers?  Net worth, savings rate, annual spend, invested assets (stocks and bonds), rental property & income (if any), mortgage (rate and amount left), kids?
I'm at $1,475K in net worth; savings rate about 47% of income; annual spend about $40K; invested assets: $812K in non-retirement accounts, $551K in retirement accounts, some cash, no bonds; no rental property income; no mortgage; no kids.  I will be in very good shape if I can get my non-retirement accounts to $1 million by 2019.

itchyfeet

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #536 on: January 31, 2018, 07:56:37 AM »
So, first month of the last full year of work is done.

How did we all go financially? I am guessing for most of you, it was a bumper month.

Things are a little different down under.
 - My real estate dropped $15K
 - Australian stocks were marginally down for the month. (Upside down compared to the rest of the world :-/ )
 - The stronger AUD v USD also dampened the growth that I might otherwise had on international stock exposures, but still I got to enjoy that party a little bit.

At least DW and I saved well. Spending in January was lower than any single month in 2017!!

We also got a little kicker from a small termination payment from DW's last employer to help offset negative total investment returns for the month.

We'll need to keep up the reined in spending to offset the deflating property market if we want to hit our "number" before we FIRE.  I hope stocks don't follow Sydney real estate downwards, but whatevs!!  Nothing will stop us taking the leap by June 2019 at the latest :-)

Net worth growth for the month was a paltry 0.05%, but still in the right direction and we are now at 21.4x desired FIRE budget (this is all in, including a notional rent charge for housing we will buy post FIRE).

If I set aside housing then things look a little more daunting as we would be at only 19.8x (investable assets: FIRE budget ex housing). Still a bit of work to be done!

...and yes, I am perfectly comfortable with 25x as a target due to the large amount of discretionary spending in the budget, and the fact that DW will insist on working a small amount. Thanks for asking :-)
« Last Edit: January 31, 2018, 07:58:55 AM by itchyfeet »

dude

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #537 on: January 31, 2018, 11:11:41 AM »
I was *just* wondering if any of you were considering moving up your timeline due to the recent outsized market returns.

I'm actually worried about the opposite! With market valuations so high, I'm worried about it continuing through this year and tanking in 2019 when I retire!  That's the one thing that might cause me to inflict myself with OMY Syndrome. Biggest fear is negative returns early in retirement.

edgema

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #538 on: February 01, 2018, 02:46:46 AM »
Dude - Perhaps you should think about setting up your portfolio with an element of Rising Equity Glide Path. Obviously I don't know your position but if you are, sensibly IMO, worrying about the risk of big falls just after you retire then this helps reduce equity risk early on. As a minor version of this you could take out 2017 and 2018 bumper returns (if that is what happens in your example) and put that in cash/short duration bonds and plan to deploy this regularly over the next few years. That way you have the ability to deploy into cheaper equities if there is 2020 crash.   

Itchyfeet - I am a Brit so January wasn't great for me either. In theory my pound buys a more 'globally' more as it went up, but as my portfolio has lots of USD in it, my returns were not good.

Kognisjon - Numbers wise I am very conservative and looking to have £2.5m in investment assets. We are just not particularly mustachian on lifestyle so looking at a 3.5 - 4.0% payout (gasp! - how do you spend so much). I personally cannot take the uncertainty of equities (20- year career in finance / equities) so I like my rental properties (c50% stash) which churn out most of my cash flow needs, with equities (30%) providing the possible long term juice to grow wealth. The final 20% will be cash as of March next year with a view that we will regularly buy equities over the next few years to reduce the risk of a crash freaking us out, as it would if we were 90+% equities. I fear the certainty people some seem to on this forum heading into retirement on near 100% equities, confident they will be able to look past a big drawdown in years 1-3 and not getting stressed because the FIRE calculations told them it was fine. Good luck to them but that is not my personality.   

p.s. I understand the risks of property so please don't pull me up on the concentration risk / illiquidity risk / vacancy risk / understated price volatility etc. Fact is I make X every month and that works for me.


itchyfeet

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #539 on: February 01, 2018, 10:13:51 AM »
Yeah, we won’t be 100% equities either.

We will be targeting income from

Indexed pension                                             15%
Rental income.                                                22%
Fixed interest.                                                  8%
Sub total - base spending.                               45%
Equities - discretionary/ deferrable spending.     55%

We could manage a year or 2 drawing nothing from equities. We might even reduce equities a little further yet.

Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #540 on: February 01, 2018, 11:43:24 AM »
I was *just* wondering if any of you were considering moving up your timeline due to the recent outsized market returns.

I'm actually worried about the opposite! With market valuations so high, I'm worried about it continuing through this year and tanking in 2019 when I retire!  That's the one thing that might cause me to inflict myself with OMY Syndrome. Biggest fear is negative returns early in retirement.

If the bull continues through 2018, then I'm sure it will give you enough cushion financially to absorb a crash.  I think the bigger challenge would be psychologically, could you quit if the market starts dropping at the end of 2018?  I'm not sure if I would be able to or not.  I guess it depends on how big the cushion is.  Now the waiting game begins!

moxie

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #541 on: February 02, 2018, 03:24:32 PM »
Well, I kind of just decided to not wait any longer. I'm planning to give my notice as soon as I get my bonus (for last year) in early March. Then I'll give about a month's notice. So I'm moving over to the 2018 group.

I'll be 58 this month, so this isn't super early, but I'm still excited!




Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #542 on: February 02, 2018, 03:34:20 PM »
Well, I kind of just decided to not wait any longer. I'm planning to give my notice as soon as I get my bonus (for last year) in early March. Then I'll give about a month's notice. So I'm moving over to the 2018 group.

I'll be 58 this month, so this isn't super early, but I'm still excited!

Good riddance!

Just kidding of course.  Congrats!  That's exciting!

Trifele

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #543 on: February 03, 2018, 05:34:02 AM »
Congrats Moxie!!   Good for you.!

Continuing with the video theme, here's how I imagine I'll feel next year:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nN7tVwiwGUc

Edited to add:  If you haven't watched The Shawshank Redemption lately, you should.  The whole movie is a great metaphor for FIREing.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2018, 07:41:02 AM by Trifele »

Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #544 on: February 06, 2018, 11:22:28 AM »
I was *just* wondering if any of you were considering moving up your timeline due to the recent outsized market returns.

I'm actually worried about the opposite! With market valuations so high, I'm worried about it continuing through this year and tanking in 2019 when I retire!  That's the one thing that might cause me to inflict myself with OMY Syndrome. Biggest fear is negative returns early in retirement.

Looks like you're getting your wish of the markets not tanking in 2019, but in 2018 instead.  Congrats!  lol

dude

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #545 on: February 07, 2018, 08:04:04 AM »
I was *just* wondering if any of you were considering moving up your timeline due to the recent outsized market returns.

I'm actually worried about the opposite! With market valuations so high, I'm worried about it continuing through this year and tanking in 2019 when I retire!  That's the one thing that might cause me to inflict myself with OMY Syndrome. Biggest fear is negative returns early in retirement.

If the bull continues through 2018, then I'm sure it will give you enough cushion financially to absorb a crash.  I think the bigger challenge would be psychologically, could you quit if the market starts dropping at the end of 2018?  I'm not sure if I would be able to or not.  I guess it depends on how big the cushion is.  Now the waiting game begins!

Exactly right, Eric. I mean, most here would probably call me a pussy, because I'll be walking out the door with a substantial pension, so even a big drop in my retirement account shouldn't be that big of a deal. But I want to avoid tightening the belt too much -- the whole point of me retiring is to be able to do the things I want to do without worry. And the thing I most like to do -- travel to places where I can climb, surf, snowboard, and scuba dive -- cost money, even though my travels are pretty low-budget. Still in all, with the time ahead of me now being considerably shorter than the time behind me, I'm hoping I get past any market-related fear and just pull the plug anyway. Life is damn short, and I don't want to spend any more of it working doing something my heart's just not in.

dude

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #546 on: February 07, 2018, 08:06:17 AM »
I was *just* wondering if any of you were considering moving up your timeline due to the recent outsized market returns.

I'm actually worried about the opposite! With market valuations so high, I'm worried about it continuing through this year and tanking in 2019 when I retire!  That's the one thing that might cause me to inflict myself with OMY Syndrome. Biggest fear is negative returns early in retirement.

Looks like you're getting your wish of the markets not tanking in 2019, but in 2018 instead.  Congrats!  lol

Ha! Yeah, we'll see. Had hoped this drop would continue into the 10-20% range, but looks like the market's stabilizing.

Mika M

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #547 on: February 12, 2018, 11:38:16 AM »
Hmm... The original plan was not till at least 2024 when DH finishes up his 20 years with Reserves... but I may leave that to him and join this group :P

FrugalToque

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #548 on: February 15, 2018, 06:53:58 AM »
Exactly right, Eric. I mean, most here would probably call me a pussy,  ...

I want to say something here about the relative durability of vaginas versus the fragility of male organs, some kind of Betty White paraphrasing, but maybe we'll just all acknowledge that vaginas are actually pretty tough and we shouldn't equate with weakness in our metaphors just because we think women are the weaker sex.

Toque.

VoteCthulu

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #549 on: February 15, 2018, 08:06:32 AM »
Exactly right, Eric. I mean, most here would probably call me a pussy,  ...

I want to say something here about the relative durability of vaginas versus the fragility of male organs, some kind of Betty White paraphrasing, but maybe we'll just all acknowledge that vaginas are actually pretty tough and we shouldn't equate with weakness in our metaphors just because we think women are the weaker sex.

Toque.
I assume they were using the word in its "timid/passive" definition instead of referring to a vagina.