Author Topic: 2019 fire cohort  (Read 209649 times)

Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1500 on: December 18, 2018, 12:24:34 PM »
The jist of it being such that if you retired 3 months ago valuations were X so an adjusted SWR would be Y, whereas if you retired after a 12% decline, your at lower valuations and thus your SWR would be theoretically higher.

This is definitely true in the abstract, but the recent drop is barely anything.  The total return on the S&P is only down a percent or two YTD.  Personally, I wouldn't go increasing my WR based on this little blip.  We're still in very high PE territory, so staying conservative (4% or lower) is prudent.

itchyfeet

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1501 on: December 18, 2018, 01:14:24 PM »
I am still on the fence as to whether to press GO.

The drop in markets and house prices in Sydney is playing on my mind.

The HR Director from HQ flew in and paid me a visit yesterday. Still plenty of plans for me in Megacorp if I was to choose to play along. Also, we are developing a very large project atm, which is interesting stuff, mentally challenging and enjoyable.

I have made a list of pros and cons of FIREing in June 2019 as planned. Plenty of arguements both ways. Not such an easy choice and made harder with no stash growth this year (savings < losses)

DW is completely locked on June and doesn’t want to hear of my dithering. Happy wife, happy life I guess. Maybe this is the deciding factor.

I wish I could just shake this nagging feeling that I will regret walking away from my current job right at this time.

 Is their an acronym for pre FIRE jitters....

How about this Syndrome Of FIRE Trepidatiion.... also referred to as SOFT.


Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1502 on: December 18, 2018, 02:25:44 PM »
Is their an acronym for pre FIRE jitters....

How about this Syndrome Of FIRE Trepidatiion.... also referred to as SOFT.

I think it's generally referred to as One More Year syndrome.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1503 on: December 18, 2018, 03:06:20 PM »
Yes, and OMY has an automatic renewal like a crappy subscription you forgot you signed up for unless you deliberately march toward the door. 

No criticism from me though-  I thought I would target the end of March 2019 and now am honing in on July 5th.  With the market stinking like it is I am feeling a little wobbly and am glad I have 6 months to sneak up on it. 

There will always be a reason to stay but I am feeling more determined that I just can't continue this grind.  The reasons to go are a very long list, the reasons to stay are only for the money--really, that is it.  Your Money or Your Life, indeed.   

I was reading on the Epic FU thread about departing and "retirement" status and at age 50 they won't call me a retiree.  No pro-rata bonus payout in 2020, no retiree benefits.  I haven't decided if I will call myself a retiree as I depart but I am leaning that way.  Maybe I will inspire someone to follow the path. 

forward

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1504 on: December 18, 2018, 04:41:26 PM »

Reading everyone’s progress is a settling exercise for me.  I wish I had a work environment where me bringing up leaving would bring about a request to stay a few more weeks or a nice transition etc.  When I put in my required (by contract) notice of 3 months, I fully expect to be escorted out the door within the day.  They will make it a very negative experience.  I feel like that should make it easier to do but I think I have some kind of Stockholm syndrome. 

Thanks for the well wishes on the week Trifele, I echo them to everyone.  I think this week may be one of the worst ones for me yet, I must keep reminding myself that I have a plan.

I have the time available but being allowed to take it is another question.  There is good reason to want to leave.

Oh @forward, that really sucks.  In theory that should make it easier, but I can see how that would mess with your head.  And it sounds like things are rough in general.  Do you have any time off coming up?

DreamFIRE

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1505 on: December 18, 2018, 05:38:59 PM »
I was just going to ask that question on this forum -- have the recent market moves made anyone reconsider 2019?  I'm down close to $50k so far (could have been much worse, but I shifted to a 50/50 mix well over a year ago), but I've still got plenty of money to comfortably finance FIRE withdrawals IF it doesn't get too much worse. And then again, I've got a cash buffer (to supplement my pension) to get me through the remainder of 2019, if I have to. And at this point, I've locked in the notion that I'm retiring in May and really cannot fathom having to stick around, so I guess in the worst case I'd just have to tighten the belt and skip some travel next year. And at any rate, anything can happen between now and May. I don't see the kind of problems out there that existed in 2008 to make me think we're going to see that kind of drop again, but certainly 20% isn't out of the question as values revert to the mean.

A similar question was asked recently about a potential 30 to 40% drop.  For me,  whether it goes back up within a few months or drops 30%+, I might put in 10 more months of full time instead of FIREing and attempting to go part time for those 10 months (which was never guaranteed), partly because I like my job well enough that I would like to keep working a while longer.  The full time choice is the only guarantee I can stay on.  The ACA uncertainty concerns me some as well, although I'm optimistic.  I would say the recent downturn doesn't play as much of a factor, although it gets my attention.  Back in July, I moved from 80% to 60% equities, and I'm still down six figures since late September!  I calculated that drop in value out to be almost 8 years of my barebones expenses, and 2 to 3 years of my planned retirement spending.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2018, 05:43:00 PM by DreamFIRE »

MissNancyPryor

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1506 on: December 18, 2018, 06:12:56 PM »
I have lost 19% of my stache since the end of September.  Painful.  I have too much exposure to the financials and tech (and this week, Johnson&Johnson) in my Vanguard funds, and too much single stock AAPL that I have had for more than a decade.  I am still up very big on AAPL over that long time but it has been a steep drop from the high.  My plan for a while now has been to pile up a bunch of cash so that I wouldn't have to sell any stock for the first couple of years after RE in case I got hit with a bad sequence of returns right out of the gate. 

I am tied to the mast (as JL Collins says) and I try to concentrate on not where the V-funds and AAPL are today, but where they will be several years down the road.  With a growing cash pile I could wait at least 2 years before having to sell and I would not remodel the kitchen as planned and just hang tight until the tide rises.  In theory I should be putting money into the fallen market to enjoy the inevitable rise but in these last months the cash pile is needed to round out my allocations.  I will have to pick up a few cheaper crumbs with dividend reinvestment for now.     

So I do have a plan, but it is pretty scary to think about quitting a high paying job when the market it sliding.  It was a lot easier to contemplate when I was riding high.  If things continue I am afraid I will be a 2019 flunky and chicken out, but I also know this is an excellent exercise in understanding why the 4% rule works through horrible economic times.           

dude

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1507 on: December 19, 2018, 07:53:07 AM »
I was just going to ask that question on this forum -- have the recent market moves made anyone reconsider 2019?  I'm down close to $50k so far (could have been much worse, but I shifted to a 50/50 mix well over a year ago), but I've still got plenty of money to comfortably finance FIRE withdrawals IF it doesn't get too much worse. And then again, I've got a cash buffer (to supplement my pension) to get me through the remainder of 2019, if I have to. And at this point, I've locked in the notion that I'm retiring in May and really cannot fathom having to stick around, so I guess in the worst case I'd just have to tighten the belt and skip some travel next year. And at any rate, anything can happen between now and May. I don't see the kind of problems out there that existed in 2008 to make me think we're going to see that kind of drop again, but certainly 20% isn't out of the question as values revert to the mean.

A similar question was asked recently about a potential 30 to 40% drop.  For me,  whether it goes back up within a few months or drops 30%+, I might put in 10 more months of full time instead of FIREing and attempting to go part time for those 10 months (which was never guaranteed), partly because I like my job well enough that I would like to keep working a while longer.  The full time choice is the only guarantee I can stay on.  The ACA uncertainty concerns me some as well, although I'm optimistic.  I would say the recent downturn doesn't play as much of a factor, although it gets my attention.  Back in July, I moved from 80% to 60% equities, and I'm still down six figures since late September!  I calculated that drop in value out to be almost 8 years of my barebones expenses, and 2 to 3 years of my planned retirement spending.

DreamFIRE, I feel for folks who have to contend with ACA uncertainty (and health care insurance in general). I'm super fortunate to have a reasonably priced employer-provided retiree health care plan, and that certainly mitigates a lot of the stress of retirement planning.

A six-figure drop since September even with only 60% allocated! You've obviously got a nice nut stashed away!

dude

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1508 on: December 19, 2018, 08:07:13 AM »
I have lost 19% of my stache since the end of September.  Painful.  I have too much exposure to the financials and tech (and this week, Johnson&Johnson) in my Vanguard funds, and too much single stock AAPL that I have had for more than a decade.  I am still up very big on AAPL over that long time but it has been a steep drop from the high.  My plan for a while now has been to pile up a bunch of cash so that I wouldn't have to sell any stock for the first couple of years after RE in case I got hit with a bad sequence of returns right out of the gate. 

I am tied to the mast (as JL Collins says) and I try to concentrate on not where the V-funds and AAPL are today, but where they will be several years down the road.  With a growing cash pile I could wait at least 2 years before having to sell and I would not remodel the kitchen as planned and just hang tight until the tide rises.  In theory I should be putting money into the fallen market to enjoy the inevitable rise but in these last months the cash pile is needed to round out my allocations.  I will have to pick up a few cheaper crumbs with dividend reinvestment for now.     

So I do have a plan, but it is pretty scary to think about quitting a high paying job when the market it sliding.  It was a lot easier to contemplate when I was riding high.  If things continue I am afraid I will be a 2019 flunky and chicken out, but I also know this is an excellent exercise in understanding why the 4% rule works through horrible economic times.         

Ouch, 19%? That's a steep drop. I just did the numbers and I'm only down 6.2% since the end of Sept. However, because of contributions (and a 2.8% gain in my bond allocation), I'm actually up $22,142 in my main account for the year.

One of the things I've been giving some thought to is dropping my 401k contributions to just the matching level (5%), and banking the difference (a lot since I do the max + catch ups, i.e., $24,500 this year) between now and May when I retire. I'd lose the tax benefit obviously, but because I'd be retiring in May, my income will be considerably lower next year so it might not be that big a tax hit. I'll have to crunch the numbers in more detail before I decide.

FIRE 20/20

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1509 on: December 19, 2018, 09:51:44 AM »
I'm teetering on officially removing myself from this cohort.

With the markets dropping this quickly, even at current valuations I am getting pushed into late 2019 before I will be at a 4% WR (individually). As a couple we are only at ~13x annual expenses right now.

Much of my decision will depend on what happens with the equities markets in the coming months/year.

I was just going to ask that question on this forum -- have the recent market moves made anyone reconsider 2019?  I'm down close to $50k so far (could have been much worse, but I shifted to a 50/50 mix well over a year ago), but I've still got plenty of money to comfortably finance FIRE withdrawals IF it doesn't get too much worse. And then again, I've got a cash buffer (to supplement my pension) to get me through the remainder of 2019, if I have to. And at this point, I've locked in the notion that I'm retiring in May and really cannot fathom having to stick around, so I guess in the worst case I'd just have to tighten the belt and skip some travel next year. And at any rate, anything can happen between now and May. I don't see the kind of problems out there that existed in 2008 to make me think we're going to see that kind of drop again, but certainly 20% isn't out of the question as values revert to the mean.

I think there are two pieces to this.  One is the emotional, and one is the logical.  Emotionally it sucks to see our numbers drop from their peak values, and the fear that's being sold in the news makes it worse.  No matter how things are going, I think most of us are going to be nervous and seeing the markets drop will certainly make that worse. 

However, logically it seems to me that most or all of us in the 2019 cohort should be well past the point where we care at all about recent returns.  Negative or near zero returns for a *decade* have occurred in the past and our plans need to be robust enough for that kind of market performance again.  Each of us will have different ways of dealing with it, but we should all have some kind of backup plan.  If we're ready for a decade of zero or negative returns then just one year of ~0% returns shouldn't cause us to sweat at all.  Whether your back-up plan is geographic arbitrage, cutting expenses, low SWR, a side hustle, real estate, or whatever, it should hopefully be robust enough that the recent turmoil should just be noise.  With the recent drop we're still at a 10 year CAPE value over 28, and the only time it's been higher is around the crashes of 1929 and 1999.  Even the roll-off of the 2008/2009 horrible earnings will only contribute another 2-3 point reduction so it will take further market drops to get us below 25. 

I'm not trying to discourage anyone from FIRE, but I do think this is a great opportunity to make sure our plans are robust enough to get us through a potential extended period of low returns.  It's also a good time to figure out how to deal with the emotions surrounding this kind of volatility, because even if things start to look rosy tomorrow we should expect that during our first decade of FIRE we'll have many, many months like the couple we've just had.  It would suck to FIRE and then spend significant amounts of time panicking about market performance. 

Loren Ver

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1510 on: December 19, 2018, 10:15:25 AM »
@FIRE 20/20 I really appreciate what you just said.  The timing was also fantastic as I was just in one of my investment account selling enough to cover 2019 living expenses + 2 years of mortgage payments + a cash buffer.  Whew!  I picked the account that was the least negative for the year (and had the right cost basis to avoid taxes). 

I really don't like selling at a low, especially knowing that it could be back in bullish positive territory as early as next week (or tomorrow, or next month), but we need the money for 2019, and it all has to clear to be in this years income, so, we followed the plan. 

If I had sold before this recent slump, it all would have come from 2018 gains with room to spare, and that would have been lovely, but that isn't what happened so, eh. 

Loren

Lews Therin

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1511 on: December 19, 2018, 11:35:26 AM »
Depends on how early we were FIRE-ing. I personally am on the edge of lean-fire, so going down by 10% is a significant hit, there isn't a ton of cuts possible.

On the other hand, I'm not adding an extra day of normal work after accessing all my bonuses, no matter what the market does.

Had the market continued going gang-busters, I probably would've passed on my extra bonus for 3 months, but now it's just too tempting, and more than covers the drawback of the market.

dude

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1512 on: December 19, 2018, 12:47:06 PM »
I'm teetering on officially removing myself from this cohort.

With the markets dropping this quickly, even at current valuations I am getting pushed into late 2019 before I will be at a 4% WR (individually). As a couple we are only at ~13x annual expenses right now.

Much of my decision will depend on what happens with the equities markets in the coming months/year.

I was just going to ask that question on this forum -- have the recent market moves made anyone reconsider 2019?  I'm down close to $50k so far (could have been much worse, but I shifted to a 50/50 mix well over a year ago), but I've still got plenty of money to comfortably finance FIRE withdrawals IF it doesn't get too much worse. And then again, I've got a cash buffer (to supplement my pension) to get me through the remainder of 2019, if I have to. And at this point, I've locked in the notion that I'm retiring in May and really cannot fathom having to stick around, so I guess in the worst case I'd just have to tighten the belt and skip some travel next year. And at any rate, anything can happen between now and May. I don't see the kind of problems out there that existed in 2008 to make me think we're going to see that kind of drop again, but certainly 20% isn't out of the question as values revert to the mean.

I think there are two pieces to this.  One is the emotional, and one is the logical.  Emotionally it sucks to see our numbers drop from their peak values, and the fear that's being sold in the news makes it worse.  No matter how things are going, I think most of us are going to be nervous and seeing the markets drop will certainly make that worse. 

However, logically it seems to me that most or all of us in the 2019 cohort should be well past the point where we care at all about recent returns.  Negative or near zero returns for a *decade* have occurred in the past and our plans need to be robust enough for that kind of market performance again.  Each of us will have different ways of dealing with it, but we should all have some kind of backup plan.  If we're ready for a decade of zero or negative returns then just one year of ~0% returns shouldn't cause us to sweat at all.  Whether your back-up plan is geographic arbitrage, cutting expenses, low SWR, a side hustle, real estate, or whatever, it should hopefully be robust enough that the recent turmoil should just be noise.  With the recent drop we're still at a 10 year CAPE value over 28, and the only time it's been higher is around the crashes of 1929 and 1999.  Even the roll-off of the 2008/2009 horrible earnings will only contribute another 2-3 point reduction so it will take further market drops to get us below 25. 

I'm not trying to discourage anyone from FIRE, but I do think this is a great opportunity to make sure our plans are robust enough to get us through a potential extended period of low returns.  It's also a good time to figure out how to deal with the emotions surrounding this kind of volatility, because even if things start to look rosy tomorrow we should expect that during our first decade of FIRE we'll have many, many months like the couple we've just had.  It would suck to FIRE and then spend significant amounts of time panicking about market performance.

Good point. For me, I only need a 1.8 - 2% withdrawal rate for the first 8 years of retirement, so I'm really not that concerned about market moves too much. After those first 8 years, I'll be 62 with just 5 years to go before I collect a max SS benefit (currently around $33k), so my 401k only has to do any heavy lifting from 62 to 67. I'm reasonable confident I'll have more in my account at that point than what I started with, so should have the option of taking 4% - 6% for those 5 years until SS kicks in.

SugarMountain

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1513 on: December 19, 2018, 03:56:15 PM »
We're now down nearly 14% from the peak. I would posit that this is a healthy thing.  I felt like we were definitely getting into bubble territory.  The estimated P/E ratio for the S&P 500 for 2018 at today's close price is down to about 15.8.  This is way healthier than when it was over 20 not so long ago and is close to the historic mean.  My take is basically the market got about a year+ ahead of itself.  I am putting my money where my mouth is and dumped a bunch of cash into VOO on Monday. It's down a bit, but I don't really care. I'm pretty sure it will be up in 20-30 years when I need it, hopefully having increased by historical averages and is at 10x what I bought it for on Monday.  That's the thing to think about, where is this going to be 10, 20, 30, 40 years from now?  Will today's price matter?

I might buy more tomorrow. (I realize I shouldn't try to time the market, but timing worked out such that I have more in cash than I'd like and I was holding it aside for a potential investment which is now not going to happen for other reasons.  I like buying on dips. That's about as close to timing the market as I get these days.)

Now it does suck psychologically for those in the 2018/2019 cohorts, that's for sure.  And it may continue to go down, lots of things point to a recession coming, the yield curve inversion, interest rates going up, 9 years of uninterrupted growth etc.  But, as someone else pointed out above, this is a blip.  A minor correction.  So don't panic, keep calm and carry on.  This doesn't feel *anything* like 2000 or 2008. Or 1987 for that matter. The market had dropped 33% from its peak that year on black Friday with a close of 224.  It's now 31 years later it's "collapsed" to 2500 or 12x+ (more if you reinvested dividends).

Now, if you're in your 30s and were planning a lean FIRE in 2019 right at 4% and the market correction has moved it so you're closer to a 4.5% WR?  I would definitely be looking at some contingencies whether that's OMY, planning to go part time for other income, or finding additional ways to cut spending.  But then I know personally I would never have the stomach for that model, so take this advice with a grain of salt.

DreamFIRE

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1514 on: December 19, 2018, 06:40:44 PM »
I was just going to ask that question on this forum -- have the recent market moves made anyone reconsider 2019?  I'm down close to $50k so far (could have been much worse, but I shifted to a 50/50 mix well over a year ago), but I've still got plenty of money to comfortably finance FIRE withdrawals IF it doesn't get too much worse. And then again, I've got a cash buffer (to supplement my pension) to get me through the remainder of 2019, if I have to. And at this point, I've locked in the notion that I'm retiring in May and really cannot fathom having to stick around, so I guess in the worst case I'd just have to tighten the belt and skip some travel next year. And at any rate, anything can happen between now and May. I don't see the kind of problems out there that existed in 2008 to make me think we're going to see that kind of drop again, but certainly 20% isn't out of the question as values revert to the mean.

A similar question was asked recently about a potential 30 to 40% drop.  For me,  whether it goes back up within a few months or drops 30%+, I might put in 10 more months of full time instead of FIREing and attempting to go part time for those 10 months (which was never guaranteed), partly because I like my job well enough that I would like to keep working a while longer.  The full time choice is the only guarantee I can stay on.  The ACA uncertainty concerns me some as well, although I'm optimistic.  I would say the recent downturn doesn't play as much of a factor, although it gets my attention.  Back in July, I moved from 80% to 60% equities, and I'm still down six figures since late September!  I calculated that drop in value out to be almost 8 years of my barebones expenses, and 2 to 3 years of my planned retirement spending.

DreamFIRE, I feel for folks who have to contend with ACA uncertainty (and health care insurance in general). I'm super fortunate to have a reasonably priced employer-provided retiree health care plan, and that certainly mitigates a lot of the stress of retirement planning.

A six-figure drop since September even with only 60% allocated! You've obviously got a nice nut stashed away!

Yeah, my Vanguard brokerage account alone has lost 6 figures - down about 11.7% since Sept. 20.  It's about 75% equities though.  My work retirement account is under 50% equities and has lost about 7.7% (excluding contributions of about $16,000 since Sept.)  Of course, this will be all I've got to FIRE on until I take full SS 15 years into FIRE - no pensions, but it's still more than double what I need to pay the barebones.  A 4% SWR allocates more spending for discretionary spending than barebones expenses.

itchyfeet

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1515 on: December 19, 2018, 08:53:07 PM »
Six months to go from today 😬

Looking at where I’ll be (assuming zero returns over the 6 months)

- I’ll have enough to buy a nice home
- I’ll have enough for my barebones budget at a 4% wr
- I’ll be looking at a 6% wr on my discretionary budget

Not where I was hoping to be. We’ll be a little more dependent on DW’s casual income and any other income that might come our way over the next 40 years, if we still want to spend as freely as I hoped. Alternatively we might need to trim the budget a little

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1516 on: December 21, 2018, 06:34:51 PM »
Baring a miracle, I'm out.


Cornbread OMalley

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1517 on: December 21, 2018, 09:51:07 PM »
Baring a miracle, I'm out.
Are you going to OMY?

gerardc

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1518 on: December 22, 2018, 02:40:41 PM »
With recent market events, I'm not at 4% WR anymore, so no FIRE. Might also need more for a family I hadn't planned for.
I'll just take a few months off, then figure it out. I'm a little sick of planning so much in advance anyway. I don't need to call it retirement or fit this in a well-labeled box. This is becoming more of an obsessive thought for me at this point. I'll work in the future. Maybe not now or next year, but in 10 or 20 years from now. Retirement at this point is premature and just ridiculous. I will take a short break, and maybe work remote for a bit, but stop making it this grandiose mission, or have the arrogance to pretend my whole life is all planned out...

DreamFIRE

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1519 on: December 22, 2018, 03:38:57 PM »
After this week, I'm on target for a 4.1% SWR in 5 months to meet my planned FIRE spending, which is FAT FIRE for me, and I could still get by on less than 2% SWR.  But I'm still considering an additional 10 months of full time employment for other reasons.  The market hasn't tanked enough yet for it to be a factor.  I expected a drop like this to come before too long, although I thought it might not be until "after" I FIREd.

MustacheAnxiety

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1520 on: December 23, 2018, 08:02:59 AM »
Early retirement now is my current favorite fire blog for it's mostly pure math goodness. We are learning toward the 3 year cash buffer that is spent down only once after the market drops 20 percent. Per big ERN it is similarly successful compared to a rising equity glide path but, at least for us is way easier to implement.

Cornbread OMalley

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1521 on: December 23, 2018, 08:30:31 AM »
Early retirement now is my current favorite fire blog for it's mostly pure math goodness. We are learning toward the 3 year cash buffer...
Where are you stashing that cash buffer?  I have a cash buffer that's a good amount and am looking for something to stash it in that is both liquid and less susceptible to erosion from inflation.

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1522 on: December 23, 2018, 11:40:38 AM »
We just told told FIL about our Fire plans. He was an early retiree himself in 2000, but we heard today that he still did some consultancy work after that for any years. It was great to talk honestly and open about our plans to a person who has been in the same situation. He gave us some good advice about consultancy work: Work in your own field of expertise pays tenfold of whatever else you could earn. You can only do this for five years. After that you are not enough up to date and people won't take you seriously anymore. Even a short 3 month sabattical can cost you your job, because you are away to long and give others the chance to take over your job.
He thought it was great that we go for this and that we should do this for sure. He found it understandable because DH and I have always been working full time and have no children. FIL has no faith whatsoever in the stockmarket and thinks we should plan extremely conservatively for the future. He has himself lived off the stockmarket and pays his bank to invest for him.
Yesterday we also met my BIL and his wife/GF and children. They just we on an expensive vacation to South Africa. They also have pricy habits of buying expensive cheese. But they do buy fifth-hand toys for their children.  I don't have the impression they will retire soon. But they have seldom worked full-time. Mostly three or four days a week.
FIL has known several people who identified themselves through their work and who never really stopped. But he himself never had that need. He says he has never been so happy as when working on his private projects at home. This winter he built a woodstrip kayak and his next project is an electric guitar.

A few days ago I also hinted to my mother about early retirement, but didn't say it all. I think my mother might have more predudices.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2018, 12:04:30 PM by Linda_Norway »

gerardc

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1523 on: December 23, 2018, 12:05:30 PM »
You can only do this for five years. After that you are not enough up to date and people won't take you seriously anymore.

That's BS. I'm getting more outdated coasting at my big company tech job with their proprietary tech in the same project than I ever would as a consultant switching projects all the time.

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1524 on: December 23, 2018, 01:16:29 PM »
You can only do this for five years. After that you are not enough up to date and people won't take you seriously anymore.

That's BS. I'm getting more outdated coasting at my big company tech job with their proprietary tech in the same project than I ever would as a consultant switching projects all the time.

It is FIL's opinion.
DH has experienced to have a slightly different (more cruising type) job for 2-3 years. After that he came back at his previous level job. But it was probably based on his reputation he built up earlier. In his experience it took three months to get up to speed again.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1525 on: December 24, 2018, 08:38:24 PM »
Baring a miracle, I'm out.
Are you going to OMY?

It really depends on Mr. Markets mood at this point.....if we return to Sept 2018 levels, no.

chasesfish

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1526 on: December 25, 2018, 05:28:36 AM »
Ooommpphh...finally yesterday was rough in the market.

I've been a little more conservative than a total indexer, staying 90%+ equities but having some lower volatility names.   I also tossed all my available cash into some beat down sectors a week ago and bought some ahead of some cash coming in over the next six to twelve weeks.

Officially down 12.81% from my high watermark on net worth, investment returns are probably around -13.5% from the high because there's a little ongoing investment.  I should be cheering about this since its working exactly as designed, but being down over $200k is a little startling.

At least I finally understand the math behind the panic, time will tell if this pace of interest rate increases will break some of the corporate debt thats out there. 


waffles

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1527 on: December 25, 2018, 08:32:21 AM »
I'm at work today, working for the federal government that will, eventually, pay me when they get done with THEIR holiday and get back to doing their job. In theory.

After 27 years of working the vast majority of holidays, this should be my last Christmas spent at work! I am so looking forward to having actual holiday time at the holidays :-).

SpareChange

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1528 on: December 25, 2018, 09:28:50 AM »
I'm at work today, working for the federal government that will, eventually, pay me when they get done with THEIR holiday and get back to doing their job. In theory.

After 27 years of working the vast majority of holidays, this should be my last Christmas spent at work! I am so looking forward to having actual holiday time at the holidays :-).

I feel ya. About to start an 18hr shift in at 1pm. Will so NOT be doing that next year. :)

Loren Ver

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1529 on: December 25, 2018, 02:57:52 PM »
The markets really are taking a beating.  I'm really glad DH and I were going to put at much into our 401ks in Q1, hopefully the sale will still be going.

On the sad front, we both hit our max in November, so we have missed out on most of the sale :(.

LV

chasesfish

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1530 on: December 25, 2018, 06:19:01 PM »
The markets really are taking a beating.  I'm really glad DH and I were going to put at much into our 401ks in Q1, hopefully the sale will still be going.

On the sad front, we both hit our max in November, so we have missed out on most of the sale :(.

LV

I think you'll see that sale get deeper through year-end.  Its been a long time since there's been this much tax loss harvesting activity at year-end

Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1531 on: December 26, 2018, 01:26:27 PM »
The markets really are taking a beating.  I'm really glad DH and I were going to put at much into our 401ks in Q1, hopefully the sale will still be going.

On the sad front, we both hit our max in November, so we have missed out on most of the sale :(.

LV

I think you'll see that sale get deeper through year-end.  Its been a long time since there's been this much tax loss harvesting activity at year-end

You may be the official jinx.  Just to be safe, could you make some more dire predictions please?

chasesfish

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1532 on: December 26, 2018, 03:58:19 PM »
@Eric I was probably more thrilled than anyone about the rally today.

I've always had a habit of buying deep when a couple signals start flashing.   Mainly the VIX, every time it gets above 25, we're enterting into panic mode.  Panic may drive it higher, but its rare and you're usually buying at a nice discount.

 Its not been a problem before because I've been so far away from retirement I didn't mind going all into equities or even borrowing some in advance of deposits to my account. I did it again between 10-15% down.  Seeing it drop to 20% was a gut check, I shouldn't be doing that as much anymore as a 2019 cohert. 

I'll never be a 100% indexer, but I don't need to blow through my bond allocation and go into my margin line again.  Unwound a few things today at a profit, need it to get back to -10% before any of those moves are in the green.

I'll be finalizing a formal investor policy statement after this :)  No longer will it just be in my head

Loren Ver

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1533 on: December 26, 2018, 05:42:54 PM »
It was nice to see some upward motion today, even if I have no money moving around. 

Today DH and I spent time working on our retirement budget.  We are still tweaking and tuning.  Now that we have all of our 2019 money pulled out of the market, the stress on what is going on is pretty low.  Don't need to think too much on it until late 2019, when we look at pulling for 2020.

LV

DreamFIRE

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1534 on: December 26, 2018, 06:45:58 PM »
With today's rally, I've only lost about 3 years of FIRE spending since late Sept.  Hopefully, it will start trending back up.  But I'll be more concerned in the final month or so leading up to FIRE and beyond.

itchyfeet

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1535 on: December 26, 2018, 09:13:11 PM »
By the time we FIRE in June we should hold 3 years expenses in cash deposits. At some point during the 3 years immediately post FIRE we will prob sell our house in Sydney and buy a cheaper place. This will give us another pile of cash which will top up our cash reserves and we will also be buying more stocks With the sale proceeds as well.

In summary, it’ll be years before we sell any stocks. In fact we will even be reinvesting dividends for at least 5 or 6 years.

What is happening in the stock market these past few months is really of no relevance to me, but it still plays with the brain re: whether I am financially ready to FIRE..... does anyone have a crystal ball for 5 years from now??

Loren Ver

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1536 on: December 27, 2018, 08:52:03 AM »
Crystal Ball - five years from now you are blissfully retired and continuously forgetting to look at the daily market performance.

Question for the cohort, where do you keep your cash or highly liquid investments?  I am mostly stocks, but DH and I are looking for a place to put earmarked money that we don't want sitting in cash.  We need to find homes for:
Emergency fund (safe and highly liquid)
Two years emergency mortgage payments (safe but low liquidity)
2019s out of pocket max for medical (medium liquid, safe)
2019 spending money (highly liquid monthly, very safe)

I've been looking at vanguards total bond market, not so great if the fed is raising rates, but is performing around inflation (I know so little about bonds it is kinda sad).  There are some CDs (1 year 18 month) that might work out, (I know slightly more about those).  And some high interest checking accounts, but we need something that doesn't require a direct deposit as our 2019 money is in a pile right now not coming out over time.

I have some of the funds in a money market right now, but the returns are so sad.  Inflation is just chipping away.

Thoughts?

Loren

dude

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1537 on: December 27, 2018, 09:58:02 AM »
Crystal Ball - five years from now you are blissfully retired and continuously forgetting to look at the daily market performance.

Question for the cohort, where do you keep your cash or highly liquid investments?  I am mostly stocks, but DH and I are looking for a place to put earmarked money that we don't want sitting in cash.  We need to find homes for:
Emergency fund (safe and highly liquid)
Two years emergency mortgage payments (safe but low liquidity)
2019s out of pocket max for medical (medium liquid, safe)
2019 spending money (highly liquid monthly, very safe)

I've been looking at vanguards total bond market, not so great if the fed is raising rates, but is performing around inflation (I know so little about bonds it is kinda sad).  There are some CDs (1 year 18 month) that might work out, (I know slightly more about those).  And some high interest checking accounts, but we need something that doesn't require a direct deposit as our 2019 money is in a pile right now not coming out over time.

I have some of the funds in a money market right now, but the returns are so sad.  Inflation is just chipping away.

Thoughts?

Loren

Vanguard has CDs from 2.55% (6-month) to 3.0% (1 year) and up for longer periods. I'm thinking of building CD ladder for the next two years with my cash. Almost no chance I'd need it all at once, so a ladder should provide me with enough liquidity (you can always bail early and take the penalty, which is usually only a couple months' worth of interest) and at least keep pace with inflation.

chasesfish

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1538 on: December 27, 2018, 01:59:18 PM »
I second just building a CD ladder with Fidelity or Vangaurd

DreamFIRE

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1539 on: December 27, 2018, 03:53:15 PM »
Crystal Ball - five years from now you are blissfully retired and continuously forgetting to look at the daily market performance.

Question for the cohort, where do you keep your cash or highly liquid investments?  I am mostly stocks, but DH and I are looking for a place to put earmarked money that we don't want sitting in cash. 

I currently keep a smaller amount of cash in my local bank.  I'm still working, so it's continuously replenished.

I have quite a bit invested in the Vanguard Prime MM, which is yielding 2.44% compounded now.  Although it's lower than a 1 year CD that's paying around 2.50% now though VG, the VG MM rate keeps edging up.

After the new year starts, I am looking at moving some into 1 year CDs or treasuries.  I would prefer more income delayed to 2020.

Loren Ver

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1540 on: December 27, 2018, 04:06:02 PM »
Thank you for the feedback!! That was the direction I was leaning as well, but it is really nice to have others confirm :D.

LV


Trifele

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1541 on: December 28, 2018, 02:44:14 PM »
Sounds like there are several people on the fence now, watching the markets and weighing their options.  I don't think anyone has officially decided to OMY yet . . . ?

Pulling the list forward.  Hope you all have a good weekend.  2019 is almost here!!!

2019 FIRE Cohort:

01/01/19     Bingeworker (52)
01/31/19     Trifele (51)
02/01/19     Cycling Stache (44)
02/08/19     Socmonkey (37)
02/25/19     MaybeBabyMustache
02/??/19     zinnie  (35)
03/15/19     exit2019  (40)
03/19/19     ChasesFish (36)
03/??/19     MissNancyPryor  (50)     
03/??/19     Roboturner  (30)
03/??/19     Edgema
03/29/19     JumboShrimp
03/31/19     BlindSquirrel
03/31/19     Mr. Ver (39)
03/31/19     Loren Ver (36)
04/01/19     HalfStached  (41)
04/01/19     Gerardc  (35)
04/01/19     JoJo (45)
04/01/19     Ryder (39)
04/19/19     Eric
04/23/19     Lews Therin (29)
04/??/19     Luck12  (41)
04/??/19     PowerStache (43)
05/01/19     Albireo13  (61)                   
05/??/19     SamIAm38  (29)
05/??/19     FIRE 20/20  (42)
05/31/19     Pylortes  (42)
05/31/19     Odiedog8590  (62)
05/31/19     Livingthedream55  (59)
05/31/19     dude   
06/01/19     Prairie Stash
06/07/19     DreamFire
06/21/19     Parizade  (62)
06/22/19     Waffles  (52)
06/??/19     Oldtoyota
06/??/19     Itchyfeet  (47)
06/??/19     Bateaux  (50)
06/??/19     CryingInThePool  (44)
07/??/19     powersuitrecall  (47)
07/??/19     Enigma  (39)
07/??/19     Thedividebyzero  (45)
07/??/19     Keeks
07/01/19     Freedomin5 (38)
07/03/19     Gerard
07/03/19     Miss Piggy
08/01/19     SugarMountain
09/02/19     Cornbread OMalley  (42)  Date Confirmed
09/??/19     RetirementDreaming
10/01/19     2Birds1Stone  (32)
10/01/19     Linda_Norway
10/??/19     VoteCthulu  (39)
10/??/19     Trix76  (43)
10/??/19     MoMan  (55)
10/??/19     Dreamer
12/??/19     HBFI  (38)
12/??/19     luckyme13  (45)
12/27/19     moxie
12/31/19     texxan1  (47)

2019 Cohort with date TBD:
Lowerbills (40)
getoutsoon (52)
IPlawyer
MustacheAnxiety
forward

OLY FIRE-ees:
markbike528cbx  (55)      OLY -- CONFIRMED 6/1/18; checking in as OP
MoneyStacher  (50)         OLY -- CONFIRMED 2018
PhilB  (52)                      OLY -- CONFIRMED 10/24/18
sui generis  (41)              OLY -- CONFIRMED 8/17/18
TartanTallulah  (55)          OLY -- CONFIRMED 10/2018
cerat0n1a                       OLY -- CONFIRMED 2018 
Chairman                        OLY -- CONFIRMED 2018
Bognish (43)                   OLY -- CONFIRMED 11/16/18
Elaine amj (40)               OLY -- CONFIRMED 11/30/18   
« Last Edit: December 28, 2018, 05:57:14 PM by Trifele »

Bingeworker

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1542 on: December 28, 2018, 05:31:45 PM »
Sounds like there are several people on the fence now, watching the markets and weighing their options.  I don't think anyone has officially decided to OMY yet . . . ?

Pulling the list forward.  Hope you all have a good weekend.  2019 is almost here!!!

Add me ... January 1, 2019.  I will work a 12 hour shift on New Year's Eve, and then will stop working for money.  I will actually still work two days a month to keep my skills current as a precaution, since my < 3% withdrawal rate still makes my husband nervous (plus, as pathologically cautious person myself, it might be too scary otherwise to quit completely), but Jan. 1 is my freedom date.  I can't wait!

Trifele

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1543 on: December 28, 2018, 06:04:30 PM »
Welcome @Bingeworker! Got you added.  What's your story?  Have you been planning FIRE for quite a while? 

ScreamingHeadGuy

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1544 on: December 29, 2018, 06:23:59 PM »
I am posting a pre-emptive “Congratulations!” to all of you in the upcoming year’s cohort.  I shall live vicariously through your triumphs in these next 12 months, so kick some butt.

markbike528CBX

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1545 on: December 29, 2018, 08:53:19 PM »
I am posting a pre-emptive “Congratulations!” to all of you in the upcoming year’s cohort.  I shall live vicariously through your triumphs in these next 12 months, so kick some butt.

As OP, I command thee to RE on time (kick some butt).  OMY, "X"MY shall be cast into (insert your least favorite place, if that be OMY or a lake of fire, OR bed of tarantulas OR whatever your sick imaginations take you). 

But really, join us, it's really nice here in the FIRE hot tub/pool/paradise of your choice.

Disclaimer: binge watching Game of Thrones with DW. 

Edit: spelling.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2018, 06:00:17 AM by markbike528CBX »

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1546 on: December 30, 2018, 05:21:31 AM »
Sounds like there are several people on the fence now, watching the markets and weighing their options.  I don't think anyone has officially decided to OMY yet . . . ?

Pulling the list forward.  Hope you all have a good weekend.  2019 is almost here!!!

Add me ... January 1, 2019.  I will work a 12 hour shift on New Year's Eve, and then will stop working for money.  I will actually still work two days a month to keep my skills current as a precaution, since my < 3% withdrawal rate still makes my husband nervous (plus, as pathologically cautious person myself, it might be too scary otherwise to quit completely), but Jan. 1 is my freedom date.  I can't wait!

Good luck on your last shift. 12 hours is a long day.

Smart of you to maintain your skills a bit. That gives you some flexibility and choices.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1547 on: December 30, 2018, 06:52:58 AM »
Sounds like there are several people on the fence now, watching the markets and weighing their options.  I don't think anyone has officially decided to OMY yet . . . ?

Not officially, as I'm less confident in my ability to put up with bullshit at work than markets rebounding.

Happy Early New Year to my fellow 2019ers, it's going to be an epic year.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1548 on: December 30, 2018, 12:11:29 PM »
Sounds like there are several people on the fence now, watching the markets and weighing their options.  I don't think anyone has officially decided to OMY yet . . . ?

Not officially, as I'm less confident in my ability to put up with bullshit at work than markets rebounding.

Happy Early New Year to my fellow 2019ers, it's going to be an epic year.

My thoughts exactly!

FIRE 20/20

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1549 on: December 30, 2018, 12:37:16 PM »
Sounds like there are several people on the fence now, watching the markets and weighing their options.  I don't think anyone has officially decided to OMY yet . . . ?

I'm still in for now.  My plan accounted for a drop like we saw recently, but if we get another 20% drop before my planned date I will reassess.