Author Topic: 2019 fire cohort  (Read 209636 times)

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1450 on: December 11, 2018, 05:26:44 AM »
Oh my! At that compensation level someone could retire in 3 years from scratch!

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1451 on: December 11, 2018, 07:19:04 AM »
Received my 2019 compensation package today. They went big. I'll receive the bonus in January, so that's guaranteed. I am getting an 11% salary raise, which is much higher than standard for my corporation. And. . .$250k in stock. Total package for the year at $700k. I know my manager wants to retain me. . . if I can get part-time at this pay rate (porportionally by hours), that would be some crazy amazing part time money.

Wow, that's solid.  How long does it take before the stock vests at your place?  We have a four year cliff vesting and that RSU login just looks like pretend money because of how long it takes to earn it

Our vesting schedule depends on the size of the grant. For my grant, I'll get a monthly grant with even distribution for the next 48 months. The big advantage of the large grant sizes is the monthly vests. At smaller grants, you are on a quarterly or even yearly vest.

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1452 on: December 11, 2018, 07:23:09 AM »
Thanks, @Loren Ver and @2Birds1Stone . Even with crazy expensive housing, a few years at this rate would make all of the difference. We haven't made this much before - this is "new money", as our move to California corresponded with greatly increased expenses (taxes, housing), but 3x/4x salary.

Golden handcuffs! So hard to leave.

Cornbread OMalley

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1453 on: December 11, 2018, 07:34:51 AM »
Received my 2019 compensation package today. They went big. I'll receive the bonus in January, so that's guaranteed. I am getting an 11% salary raise, which is much higher than standard for my corporation. And. . .$250k in stock. Total package for the year at $700k. I know my manager wants to retain me. . . if I can get part-time at this pay rate (porportionally by hours), that would be some crazy amazing part time money.
Shizzam!!  Even I have dollar signs in my eyes!!

MustacheAnxiety

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1454 on: December 12, 2018, 01:40:42 PM »
Received my 2019 compensation package today. They went big. I'll receive the bonus in January, so that's guaranteed. I am getting an 11% salary raise, which is much higher than standard for my corporation. And. . .$250k in stock. Total package for the year at $700k. I know my manager wants to retain me. . . if I can get part-time at this pay rate (porportionally by hours), that would be some crazy amazing part time money.

Damn, and I thought we were struggling to get off our gravy train with biscuit wheels (which pays 2 people well less than half of your 2019 salary).  Congrats! I hope you figure out a good part time scheme or find a way to say enough even though they want to pay you so much for just one year.

Unofficially signing up for 2019 cohort as 1 of 2 votes is most definitely not on board yet.  It is a bit early but after totaling our annual 2018 spending we are coming in with spending just under 2% of our invested assets.  Adding 17K extra for health care (which we may or may not need depending on the ACA) and 6K for travel/hobbies that have not had time for we are right around 3%.  There are tentative plans to move to a modest (300-330K) dream house in the sticks post retirement.  So that is what 2019 will be all about, getting that last 130K for the house swap (even with the higher priced house taxes will be the same).  With no help from the stock market we should be there sometime in October.

So the last question is what if the market tanks?  If we drop another 30 or 40% what are the plans for the rest of the cohort?

Statistically, we should still be fine calling it quits, right? If we can retire now at a 3% SWR and we save cash for a new house, it is the same (or slightly better) than retiring now.

Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1455 on: December 12, 2018, 02:44:30 PM »
So the last question is what if the market tanks?  If we drop another 30 or 40% what are the plans for the rest of the cohort?

Hopefully everyone has a plan for this.  Personally, the die has been cast, so I'm retiring no matter what.  However, a 30% market drop should not equal a 30% portfolio drop, assuming you hold some bonds.  For reference, a 70/30 stock/bond portfolio would only lose 20% of its value during a 30% stock market draw down.  (This assumes bonds are flat, which is a pretty conservative assumption).  If that happened, I wouldn't change much as I feel like my portfolio can absorb a 20% hit and still be okay.  At full planned spending, that'd put me at about a 4.5% WR, which again is probably fine if you're starting from a depressed point.  I'd likely spend less due to nerves, but I doubt it'd be necessary. 

Larger market draw downs would result in definite cutting of planned spending - much less travel, find a place with really cheap rent and hole up, more visits to family because it's rent free because we miss them, etc.  My spending is fairly flexible though, since I won't have a permanent home, so I feel pretty okay about being able to weather the next recession by simply moving to a cheap location and reducing spending, possibly drastically, without too much of a quality of life hit.  Of course, having never done it, I don't know if it's actually sustainable.  Only one way to find out I guess.  lol  All I know is that I really don't want to have to earn any money again. 

Pylortes

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1456 on: December 12, 2018, 03:23:00 PM »
So the last question is what if the market tanks?  If we drop another 30 or 40% what are the plans for the rest of the cohort?

Hopefully everyone has a plan for this.  Personally, the die has been cast, so I'm retiring no matter what.  However, a 30% market drop should not equal a 30% portfolio drop, assuming you hold some bonds.  For reference, a 70/30 stock/bond portfolio would only lose 20% of its value during a 30% stock market draw down.  (This assumes bonds are flat, which is a pretty conservative assumption).  If that happened, I wouldn't change much as I feel like my portfolio can absorb a 20% hit and still be okay.  At full planned spending, that'd put me at about a 4.5% WR, which again is probably fine if you're starting from a depressed point.  I'd likely spend less due to nerves, but I doubt it'd be necessary. 

Larger market draw downs would result in definite cutting of planned spending - much less travel, find a place with really cheap rent and hole up, more visits to family because it's rent free because we miss them, etc.  My spending is fairly flexible though, since I won't have a permanent home, so I feel pretty okay about being able to weather the next recession by simply moving to a cheap location and reducing spending, possibly drastically, without too much of a quality of life hit.  Of course, having never done it, I don't know if it's actually sustainable.  Only one way to find out I guess.  lol  All I know is that I really don't want to have to earn any money again.

I try to be adaptable.  If the market tanks, I will plan to work longer so I can load up on cheap stocks. Too hard for me to pass up bargains, and I have a wish list of companies I follow (and I price I would pay) that I would buy shares of in a drop.   But not too much longer (maybe a few months?), as I'm getting pretty sick of work. 

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1457 on: December 12, 2018, 03:34:21 PM »
@MustacheAnxiety - my first response was guilt. I'm thrilled, and appreciate the recognition for my efforts, but . . . a lot of guilt. I've had many moments of, if I work for another year, I can do X for my family (sister, etc). If I work for another two years, I can do Y for a charitable contribution I care about, etc. It's very, very difficult to walk away from the money. Which, is of course, the goal.

forward

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1458 on: December 12, 2018, 04:25:42 PM »

I haven't posted on the forum for a while but still stop in for inspiration and you all are inspiring.  I am thinking I am going to be in the 2019 cohort!  I do hope I am not in the 2018 cohort because I would like to put a little more away to pay off the house but that may be beyond my control.

Like some others, I bounce between overwhelming excitement and absolute trepidation for the post-FIRE time.  But the job almost always has me down.   

Work has become excrutiating and getting through the next 14 weeks will be very hard, if I last that long.  If I make it that long, I'll put my required 90 day notice in but I suspect I will be asked to leave at that moment.  its that kind of place.

FIRE 20/20

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1459 on: December 12, 2018, 05:43:32 PM »
Unofficially signing up for 2019 cohort as 1 of 2 votes is most definitely not on board yet.  It is a bit early but after totaling our annual 2018 spending we are coming in with spending just under 2% of our invested assets.  Adding 17K extra for health care (which we may or may not need depending on the ACA) and 6K for travel/hobbies that have not had time for we are right around 3%.  There are tentative plans to move to a modest (300-330K) dream house in the sticks post retirement.  So that is what 2019 will be all about, getting that last 130K for the house swap (even with the higher priced house taxes will be the same).  With no help from the stock market we should be there sometime in October.

So the last question is what if the market tanks?  If we drop another 30 or 40% what are the plans for the rest of the cohort?

Statistically, we should still be fine calling it quits, right? If we can retire now at a 3% SWR and we save cash for a new house, it is the same (or slightly better) than retiring now.

If you're at 3%, you've already worked too long and over the last year or couple of years spent your youngest, arguably best remaining years working when you didn't need to.  This fully accounts for a 30 or 40% drop. 

If a 30-40% drop causes a panic or any kind of re-evaluation of whether or not we should have FIREd then we didn't have a good enough plan in place.  Drops of that size happen all the time.  My backup plans include:
1.  Set up an LLC so I can do some part-time consulting.  This will allow me to keep certificates that are required in my field up to date if things get *really* bad and I need to return to full-time work.  I anticipate working 6-18 weeks per year for a year or two to see if we FIREd into a situation like the mid-1960s cohorts. 
2.  Have buffer built into the budget.  My partner and I have agreed on a prioritized order of budget cuts if things start to look bad.
3.  We've ignored our pensions and Social Security, which we'll be able to access about 20 years into FIRE.
4.  Ignored the possibility of any inheritance, although a not insignificant inheritance probable.
5.  Use a very low withdrawal rate - I expect we'll be at 3.6-3.7% if the market returns 0% between now and our FIRE date in May.  I'm kind of embarrassed to admit that I'm going with such an unreasonably low withdrawal rate, but it'll help me sleep at night even if it's not at all logical to go that low. 
6.  Use a rising equities glidepath to reduce the sequence of returns risk.

So, in short, my plan to deal with a 30-40% drop in the markets will be to shrug and FIRE anyway.  We're well below the SWR of 4%, we have concrete plans in place to earn money if needed, we have concrete plans in place to cut expenses if needed, and we are completely ignoring very likely additional income in the form of Social Security, Pensions, and potential inheritance.  Of course I say that now, but my bravado may be proven to be false if the markets crash right before my FIRE date, or my greed may rise up as I see equities go on sale. 

MustacheAnxiety

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1460 on: December 12, 2018, 06:59:00 PM »
@MustacheAnxiety - my first response was guilt. I'm thrilled, and appreciate the recognition for my efforts, but . . . a lot of guilt. I've had many moments of, if I work for another year, I can do X for my family (sister, etc). If I work for another two years, I can do Y for a charitable contribution I care about, etc. It's very, very difficult to walk away from the money. Which, is of course, the goal.

Seriously, the last thing you should feel is guilt, especially not because of something I said.  You are in a tough position (which is something only one super privileged person can say to another about making 700K in a year ... and now I feel kind of guilty).  But seriously if there is something you are really excited about retiring too I hope you find a way to leave in 2019.  If you like your job well enough and can carve out enough time for the other things that make you happy, work another year or two. 

I appreciate the thoughts on back-up plans and why we should pull the trigger in 2019, even if the big one hits, keep them coming.

Also, I officially have a pencil 'stache Woohoo.

DreamFIRE

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1461 on: December 12, 2018, 07:47:48 PM »
So the last question is what if the market tanks?  If we drop another 30 or 40% what are the plans for the rest of the cohort?

Statistically, we should still be fine calling it quits, right? If we can retire now at a 3% SWR and we save cash for a new house, it is the same (or slightly better) than retiring now.


After recent drops in my investments, I'm down to 74X barebones and a 1.35% SWR.  Sounds good, but that's more of an existence budget, minimal discretionary spending, not a way I would want to live in FIRE.  It's my maximum cut-back that would still allow me to pay all the necesarry bills including ongoing maintenance on my home without downsizing or living with anyone else.

My planned fire budget which includes a nice sum for discretionary spending for things like entertainment and travel puts my stash currently at 26X, so just under a 4% SWR.

I have about 6 months of saving to come prior to my FIRE date in early June, but that will be offset mostly by some significant home repair projects - new roof, new deck, new appliances and new flooring to name a few - plus some home improvement projects.  So that still leaves me at about 26X if my investments merely keep up with inflation.

This doesn't include inheritance or SS. I will collect SS 15 years into FIRE, which will bring my stash SWR below 3% based on the SS calculator.

I moved from 80% to 60% equities in the last year when my investments were nearly at their peak, so I can weather some significant market drops for years without having to work.

That said, my preferred plan was not to FIRE completely in June 2019, but rather, move to part time work doing my same job until the following spring of 2020 to FIRE completely.  The way things are going where I work, being able to stay on part time isn't looking likely.  I like my job.  It's interesting, I got my own office (no cubicle) over a year ago, I have a lot of flexibility, it's a short commute, so I really don't want to just call it quits completely that soon.  So I'm now considering just staying on full time for 10 more months past my original FIRE date, then completely FIRE in April 2020 with no part time plans, so my full-on FIRE would still be the same as if I had gone part time instead 10 months earlier.  I would still be like part time in July and August since I take so much vacation during the summer.  Maybe we'll have some more certainty on the ACA by then also with this lawsuit that's dragging out.

But, I don't have to decide until May 2019 if I want to go ahead and FIRE in June 2019 and try to stay on part time for a while longer or just stay on full time another 10 months before FIREing completely in April 2020.

Back to the question about a 30%-40% drop in the market, that wouldn't be an issue, assuming it recovered over time like it normally has after a recession.  I've already been expecting we'll see a recession during the early part of my FIRE and that we could see a big drop in the market that could take years to recover from.  I've already moved to a more conservative asset allocation and have plenty of buffer in my budget in available discretionary spending cuts.  So I wouldn't feel that I need to continue working longer for that reason alone, yet I may continue to work a little longer anyway.

Edit:  corrected my decision deadline to May 2019.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2018, 09:37:16 AM by DreamFIRE »

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1462 on: December 13, 2018, 01:52:32 AM »
So the last question is what if the market tanks?  If we drop another 30 or 40% what are the plans for the rest of the cohort?

If the market drops that much, we will take up a mortgage on the house and buy stock, while waiting for the home to be sold in 2019, for the minimum price we want.

We plan to sell the house in 2019 and with that transaction we expect to free up approx 400K to bulk buy into the stock market. We'd better make use of some market timing if there is a perfect moment for it. So we'll do it in advance in case of a crash.

It is harder to figure out what to do is there is not a crash, as a coming crash always seems due when the market is high.

Trifele

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1463 on: December 13, 2018, 02:13:56 AM »
Welcome @MustacheAnxiety!  Wow, your numbers are already at the 'fat FIRE' level.  We have all sorts here, folks like you that have a huge stash, and those like me that are skinnier (~4% bare bones). 

Welcome @forward!  I definitely hear you on the mix of feelings.  I love the smell of fear mixed with exhilaration in the morning.  Got you added.  Let us know when you have a date.


2019 FIRE Cohort:

01/31/19     Trifele (51)
02/01/19     Cycling Stache (44)
02/08/19     Socmonkey (37)
02/25/19     MaybeBabyMustache
02/??/19     zinnie  (35)
03/15/19     exit2019  (40)
03/19/19     ChasesFish (36)
03/??/19     MissNancyPryor  (50)     
03/??/19     Roboturner  (30)
03/??/19     Edgema
03/29/19     JumboShrimp
03/31/19     BlindSquirrel
03/31/19     Mr. Ver (39)
03/31/19     Loren Ver (36)
04/01/19     HalfStached  (41)
04/01/19     Gerardc  (35)
04/01/19     JoJo (45)
04/01/19     Ryder (39)
04/19/19     Eric
04/23/19     Lews Therin (29)
04/??/19     Luck12  (41)
04/??/19     PowerStache (43)
05/01/19     Albireo13  (61)                   
05/??/19     SamIAm38  (29)
05/??/19     FIRE 20/20  (42)
05/31/19     Pylortes  (42)
05/31/19     Odiedog8590  (62)
05/31/19     Livingthedream55  (59)
05/31/19     dude   
06/01/19     Prairie Stash
06/07/19     DreamFire
06/21/19     Parizade  (62)
06/22/19     Waffles  (52)
06/??/19     Oldtoyota
06/??/19     Itchyfeet  (47)
06/??/19     Bateaux  (50)
06/??/19     CryingInThePool  (44)
07/??/19     powersuitrecall  (47)
07/??/19     Enigma  (39)
07/??/19     Thedividebyzero  (45)
07/??/19     Keeks
07/01/19     Freedomin5 (38)
07/03/19     Gerard
07/03/19     Miss Piggy
08/01/19     SugarMountain
09/02/19     Cornbread OMalley  (42)  Date Confirmed
09/??/19     RetirementDreaming
10/01/19     2Birds1Stone  (32)
10/01/19     Linda_Norway
10/??/19     VoteCthulu  (39)
10/??/19     Trix76  (43)
10/??/19     MoMan  (55)
10/??/19     Dreamer
12/??/19     HBFI  (38)
12/??/19     luckyme13  (45)
12/27/19     moxie
12/31/19     texxan1  (47)

2019 Cohort with date TBD:
Lowerbills (40)
getoutsoon (52)
IPlawyer
MustacheAnxiety
forward

OLY FIRE-ees:
markbike528cbx  (55)      OLY -- CONFIRMED 6/1/18; checking in as OP
MoneyStacher  (50)         OLY -- CONFIRMED 2018
PhilB  (52)                      OLY -- CONFIRMED 10/24/18
sui generis  (41)              OLY -- CONFIRMED 8/17/18
TartanTallulah  (55)          OLY -- CONFIRMED 10/2018
cerat0n1a                       OLY -- CONFIRMED 2018 
Chairman                        OLY -- CONFIRMED 2018
Bognish (43)                   OLY -- CONFIRMED 11/16/18
Elaine amj (40)               OLY -- CONFIRMED 11/30/18   
« Last Edit: December 15, 2018, 07:57:30 AM by Trifele »

Loren Ver

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1464 on: December 13, 2018, 05:51:28 AM »
Welcome new people!  Glad you are looking at pulling the triggers in 2019 too!

For the big crash question, that is an interesting question as DH and I are going to be right around 4% (maybe more, maybe less) depending on the market when we leave.  Since we haven't been high earners most of our careers, we have taken high risk with our portfolios to cut down on time.  So if stocks go down, we go very down with them. 

So, what is the plan if bad times hit early in retirement since we don't plan on keeping out jobs:
1.  We have two years of mortgage payments in cash.  Having a cheap house really helps with this. 
2.  We will also have an additional cash buffer to fill in gaps.
3.  Knowing the mortgage is covered, we can cut spending by over a third and still be happy, if less traveled.   
4.  We plan on pulling money out the year before for tax reasons (2019 money will mostly come from 2018 investments), so we know at what value we will be selling.   If things are bad, we can put off pulling out more money and use the cash above. 
5.  Even though we are mostly in stocks, we have some diversity there.  We can draw down from industries that are still in the green, or that are most likely to bounce back fast. 
6.  If things are really really bad, and we can pull out no money, and all our cash is dwindling, we will have to find a way, between the 2 of us, to bring in ~$24,000 per year to keep us afloat.  I have skills, even if not high paying, are highly desirable. 


dude

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1465 on: December 13, 2018, 07:03:48 AM »
Welcome new people!  Glad you are looking at pulling the triggers in 2019 too!

For the big crash question, that is an interesting question as DH and I are going to be right around 4% (maybe more, maybe less) depending on the market when we leave.  Since we haven't been high earners most of our careers, we have taken high risk with our portfolios to cut down on time.  So if stocks go down, we go very down with them. 

So, what is the plan if bad times hit early in retirement since we don't plan on keeping out jobs:
1.  We have two years of mortgage payments in cash.  Having a cheap house really helps with this. 
2.  We will also have an additional cash buffer to fill in gaps.
3.  Knowing the mortgage is covered, we can cut spending by over a third and still be happy, if less traveled.   
4.  We plan on pulling money out the year before for tax reasons (2019 money will mostly come from 2018 investments), so we know at what value we will be selling.   If things are bad, we can put off pulling out more money and use the cash above. 
5.  Even though we are mostly in stocks, we have some diversity there.  We can draw down from industries that are still in the green, or that are most likely to bounce back fast. 
6.  If things are really really bad, and we can pull out no money, and all our cash is dwindling, we will have to find a way, between the 2 of us, to bring in ~$24,000 per year to keep us afloat.  I have skills, even if not high paying, are highly desirable.

I'm very fortunate to have a pension that will cover my non-discretionary spending. And I figured I'd already won the game, so to speak, when my retirement accounts were @$800k, so I dropped to a 50/50 allocation (for at least as long as this market reverts back or close to the mean) where I've earned a risk-free 2.87% on the bond half over the past year. With recent market drops, I'm down to @$760k now, but that's still plenty enough money that I can take $15k for discretionary spending and still only be at a <2% withdrawal. I will also earn some income, perhaps a couple grand annually, working a hobby gig very part-time. So really the only detrimental thing I envision if markets stayed down or flat would be traveling domestically rather than internationally for a little while. Not a big deal.

Livingthedream55

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1466 on: December 13, 2018, 08:31:43 AM »
100 Work Days to go!!!!!!!

With some vacation and personal days slated for early 2019, I have only 100 more days at the office to go! I can't believe it's getting so close.


Cornbread OMalley

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1467 on: December 13, 2018, 08:25:46 PM »
Welcome new people!  Glad you are looking at pulling the triggers in 2019 too!

For the big crash question, that is an interesting question as DH and I are going to be right around 4% (maybe more, maybe less) depending on the market when we leave.  Since we haven't been high earners most of our careers, we have taken high risk with our portfolios to cut down on time.  So if stocks go down, we go very down with them. 

So, what is the plan if bad times hit early in retirement since we don't plan on keeping out jobs:
1.  We have two years of mortgage payments in cash.  Having a cheap house really helps with this. 
2.  We will also have an additional cash buffer to fill in gaps.
3.  Knowing the mortgage is covered, we can cut spending by over a third and still be happy, if less traveled.   
4.  We plan on pulling money out the year before for tax reasons (2019 money will mostly come from 2018 investments), so we know at what value we will be selling.   If things are bad, we can put off pulling out more money and use the cash above. 
5.  Even though we are mostly in stocks, we have some diversity there.  We can draw down from industries that are still in the green, or that are most likely to bounce back fast. 
6.  If things are really really bad, and we can pull out no money, and all our cash is dwindling, we will have to find a way, between the 2 of us, to bring in ~$24,000 per year to keep us afloat.  I have skills, even if not high paying, are highly desirable.

I'm very fortunate to have a pension that will cover my non-discretionary spending. And I figured I'd already won the game, so to speak, when my retirement accounts were @$800k, so I dropped to a 50/50 allocation (for at least as long as this market reverts back or close to the mean) where I've earned a risk-free 2.87% on the bond half over the past year. With recent market drops, I'm down to @$760k now, but that's still plenty enough money that I can take $15k for discretionary spending and still only be at a <2% withdrawal. I will also earn some income, perhaps a couple grand annually, working a hobby gig very part-time. So really the only detrimental thing I envision if markets stayed down or flat would be traveling domestically rather than internationally for a little while. Not a big deal.
I'm in a similar situation like dude in that I also get a pension.  In addition, my regular taxable accounts are around $800K (retirement accounts around $525K).  My pension will give me $53K annually, and during good market conditions my taxable accounts generate about $26K for income.  After taxes total passive income will be around $64K a year.  In worst case, my taxable accounts deliver zero for income.  So my passive income range when I start FIRE is high-end of $64K and low-end of $40K.  I also have enough cash available (currently at $73K) to last me two years worth of living expenses.

Freedomin5

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1468 on: December 13, 2018, 08:28:44 PM »
Millenial Revolution's website does a good job explaining the cash buffer and yield shield (https://www.millennial-revolution.com/yield-shield/) on how to protect yourself if you happen to retire right before a market crash.

For us, we'd probably just end up working another few years. DH has already said he wants to renew his contract because he enjoys his work, so we know for sure we will have one income coming in (does that still count as FIRE-ing in 2019 if I stop working, if we end up saving his entire income and just living off our investment income)?

dude

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1469 on: December 14, 2018, 08:04:31 AM »
Welcome new people!  Glad you are looking at pulling the triggers in 2019 too!

For the big crash question, that is an interesting question as DH and I are going to be right around 4% (maybe more, maybe less) depending on the market when we leave.  Since we haven't been high earners most of our careers, we have taken high risk with our portfolios to cut down on time.  So if stocks go down, we go very down with them. 

So, what is the plan if bad times hit early in retirement since we don't plan on keeping out jobs:
1.  We have two years of mortgage payments in cash.  Having a cheap house really helps with this. 
2.  We will also have an additional cash buffer to fill in gaps.
3.  Knowing the mortgage is covered, we can cut spending by over a third and still be happy, if less traveled.   
4.  We plan on pulling money out the year before for tax reasons (2019 money will mostly come from 2018 investments), so we know at what value we will be selling.   If things are bad, we can put off pulling out more money and use the cash above. 
5.  Even though we are mostly in stocks, we have some diversity there.  We can draw down from industries that are still in the green, or that are most likely to bounce back fast. 
6.  If things are really really bad, and we can pull out no money, and all our cash is dwindling, we will have to find a way, between the 2 of us, to bring in ~$24,000 per year to keep us afloat.  I have skills, even if not high paying, are highly desirable.

I'm very fortunate to have a pension that will cover my non-discretionary spending. And I figured I'd already won the game, so to speak, when my retirement accounts were @$800k, so I dropped to a 50/50 allocation (for at least as long as this market reverts back or close to the mean) where I've earned a risk-free 2.87% on the bond half over the past year. With recent market drops, I'm down to @$760k now, but that's still plenty enough money that I can take $15k for discretionary spending and still only be at a <2% withdrawal. I will also earn some income, perhaps a couple grand annually, working a hobby gig very part-time. So really the only detrimental thing I envision if markets stayed down or flat would be traveling domestically rather than internationally for a little while. Not a big deal.
I'm in a similar situation like dude in that I also get a pension.  In addition, my regular taxable accounts are around $800K (retirement accounts around $525K).  My pension will give me $53K annually, and during good market conditions my taxable accounts generate about $26K for income.  After taxes total passive income will be around $64K a year.  In worst case, my taxable accounts deliver zero for income.  So my passive income range when I start FIRE is high-end of $64K and low-end of $40K.  I also have enough cash available (currently at $73K) to last me two years worth of living expenses.

Right on, Cornbread. Foregoing the private sector money for the pension and benefits was a conscious choice I made @22 years ago, and I don't regret it for one minute.

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1470 on: December 14, 2018, 08:32:42 AM »
Checks countdown app on phone... 364 days, 260 weekdays. So I'm hopeful to join the 2019 cohort as of December 13th 2019.  I will be 44 at that point.

My prediction is that DW may get a sweetheart deal at her work, she has been the linchpin to keeping one of their bigger clients happy, but the only way she stays is part-time and 100% remote from sunny Mexico.  They currently have a rule at her office about no remote work from Mexico (no obvious reason why, they currently have other offices outside the US), but I suspect this rule gets changed when the choice is DW + part-time+ Mexico = Happy Client who continues to send work your way or No DW = Not Happy Client and possibly less work. 

We don't need her to work to RE at this point, but she has expressed the possibility of liking some structure to her day and a way to silence her "inner bag-lady".

As to market downturn, we have that planned into our Financial Manifesto, decrease discretionary spending, rent out the casita on our property in Mexico, dance for nickles down by the pier, you get the gist.

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1471 on: December 14, 2018, 09:09:50 AM »
So much is up in the air right now regarding work.

I have my first chunk of options vesting October 1, 2019.......but we have to go public for them to be worth anything.

My financial model still shows my 12 month trailing expenses crossing 4% of investments in August of 2019.

If I feel there is a good chance we go public late 2019/early 2020, then I think it might we worth staying a little while longer, especially if stocks do go on a fire sale.

As a household we are only at ~14x annual expenses.

Cornbread OMalley

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1472 on: December 14, 2018, 07:34:33 PM »
Right on, Cornbread. Foregoing the private sector money for the pension and benefits was a conscious choice I made @22 years ago, and I don't regret it for one minute.
I would like to get my taxable accounts to generate after-tax $40K per year.  Considering the outlook for the US economy is only about 2% growth for 2019 (and possibly beyond) and a lot of market volatility, getting to that $40K amount is probably going to take several more years of accumulation phase.  When I hit my FIRE date in about nine months my accumulation phase essentially ends.  However, I think I will have periods where I work and earn income doing something.  I've been reading Tim Ferriss' book The 4-Hour Workweek and really like the idea of working two months and then taking one month off or I can just do seasonal work.  Scuba diving instructor is an option for me, and I can have short periods of mini-accumulation where I can invest more money into the taxable accounts.  Eventually, I will get to the point where my taxable accounts generate $40K in after-tax passive income.

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1473 on: December 15, 2018, 05:22:50 AM »
OK, got some news here.  I've pushed my FIRE date back to 1/31/19.  At work they were (surprisingly quickly) able to hire my replacement, and she starts the week after next.  They lucked out because she is already with the company in another division and can transfer over quickly.  Boss begged me to stay and train her for a month, and I said yes.  I told myself it was only 21 more days of work, and I could leave feeling good that I had helped with the transition.  I know from experience what it's like to train people from scratch vs. having their predecessor available.

So before you start the face punches -- my subconscious/right brain/real self/whatever-you-want-to-call-it already beat you to it.  I had a recurring dream all night last night that I was fleeing from shadowy figures.  Sometimes they seemed like criminals, and sometimes they seemed like 'authorities.'  I was struggling to flee because I had two big trunks I had to drag along with me, full of clothes, books, and miscellaneous crap.  And they were so heavy.  I tried to give things away to people, and that lightened the load a bit, but not enough.  I wasn't brave enough to just drop the trunks and run.  So I struggled onward, in fear and doubt.

Cohort member @sui generis did a very thoughtful post in her journal lately about our internal 'Narrator.'  Some call it the 'Interpreter.'  It is the voice we often hear when we think, that explains and interprets events and keeps us on an even mental keel.  But the Narrator is not who we really are, or at least not all of who we actually are.  If you've heard of the fascinating so-called 'Split Brain' experiments, this 'Narrator' was one aspect of how the two halves of the brain work together.

So here I am, a 51 year old logical-as-hell lawyer, and I feel like I am two people.  The Narrator likes my decision to stay for another month, and the 'Rest of Me' (or right brain or whatever) really hates it.  I find this whole thing fascinating and oddly touching.  My Narrator is apparently barely keeping a lid on a serious rebellion that is going on.  The Rest of Me can't speak as such, but apparently communicates the only way it can -- in dreams, and also physical manifestations of distress.  My TMJ pain is off the chart this morning.

I honestly did not expect the final exit to be this challenging mentally.  I wonder if I'm also waaaay underestimating how rough the FIRE decompression period is going to be . . .         

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1474 on: December 15, 2018, 05:58:43 AM »
Hey @Trifele. you're still the first one out in January among this group =P

That's a reason I would stay too, not to mention you will pay no taxes on that income =P

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1475 on: December 15, 2018, 06:16:02 AM »
@Trifele, don't feel bad about it. The default goodbye period in the USA, the 2 weeks, is very short to organize anything for a company. Staying 21 days longer to help your employer and your colleagues out is a nice thing to do. Just don't let them convince you to do even longer than that.

chasesfish

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1476 on: December 15, 2018, 06:39:31 AM »
13 weeks until notice.  Update:  3 of those will be spent on vacation between a long holiday break, four federal holidays, and a week and a half trip to Hawaii.

@Trifele I can relate to the painful exit.  It took months for me to have the courage to request a demotion and I still had a few gut wrenching feelings.  Part two is coming soon, which was looking easier.  Those thoughts started in September and its finally mid-December for them to subside.

DreamFIRE

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1477 on: December 15, 2018, 08:29:36 AM »
Another month or less isn't bad at all.  Heck, I'm looking at extending out another 10 months beyond my target that is 6 months off.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/2019-fire-cohort/msg2228571/#msg2228571

20 weeks until I probably won't give notice.  Something to look forward to, or not.  lol

Edit:

The entire ACA was just ruled unconstitutional by a federal judge.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/federal-judge-in-texas-rules-obama-health-care-law-unconstitutional/2018/12/14/9e8bb5a2-fd63-11e8-862a-b6a6f3ce8199_story.html
« Last Edit: December 15, 2018, 09:18:35 AM by DreamFIRE »

sui generis

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1478 on: December 15, 2018, 11:27:15 PM »

So here I am, a 51 year old logical-as-hell lawyer, and I feel like I am two people.  The Narrator likes my decision to stay for another month, and the 'Rest of Me' (or right brain or whatever) really hates it.  I find this whole thing fascinating and oddly touching.  My Narrator is apparently barely keeping a lid on a serious rebellion that is going on.  The Rest of Me can't speak as such, but apparently communicates the only way it can -- in dreams, and also physical manifestations of distress.  My TMJ pain is off the chart this morning.


Oh wow, this sounds really intense.  I hope you can find some ways to hear more of that "rest of you", even if it's too late to change your mind on extending (maybe you could still do only 25-30 hours/week for that last month as a way to transition for yourself?). I agree with others that you shouldn't feel bad and one month is not so long...in principle.  Even though your Narrator is probably right and perfectly reasonable, it sounds like there's more to the story here.  I hope more of it comes to light, if for no other reason than reducing your physical pain!

Cornbread OMalley

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1479 on: December 16, 2018, 07:08:27 AM »
So here I am, a 51 year old logical-as-hell lawyer, and I feel like I am two people.  The Narrator likes my decision to stay for another month, and the 'Rest of Me' (or right brain or whatever) really hates it.  I find this whole thing fascinating and oddly touching.  My Narrator is apparently barely keeping a lid on a serious rebellion that is going on.  The Rest of Me can't speak as such, but apparently communicates the only way it can -- in dreams, and also physical manifestations of distress.  My TMJ pain is off the chart this morning.

I honestly did not expect the final exit to be this challenging mentally.  I wonder if I'm also waaaay underestimating how rough the FIRE decompression period is going to be . . .       
How I see it is the struggle between 'Narrator' and 'Rest of Me' will continue well into FIRE and going forward.  We all will go through some form of this as we hit the FIRE gate and continue beyond.  The reason the struggle will continue is because we are opening up a phase in life where the possibilities are endless, and we will have many many Narrator/Rest of Me mental discussions to navigate the possibilities.  For me, I've been having these mental discussions ever since making the decision to FIRE.  They are exciting and stressful at the same time.  I'm learning to embrace everything as part of the FIRE process.

August

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1480 on: December 16, 2018, 06:58:29 PM »
Hello, I haven't joined a cohort thread yet.

My resignation date keeps moving.  My final day was originally going to be mid-May 2018 because it was the anniversary of a significant event in my life, then that day came and went.  I thought, how about the end of July, that way I can leave and enjoy the summer weather.  The frenetic pace of work started to slow down, making it more tolerable and I just let it ride through the summer.  I moved my last day to September, then mid-October. 

I definitely want to leave the job, but it turns out that making a big change after working in one place for 15+ years isn't easy.  It's comforting to have a routine and work-friends I see every day.  I have my "bare bones" passive income and budget set, and am ready to dive into projects that I don't have time for now due to the work schedule.  A line had to be drawn so I decided I'd go through the end of the year and leave on Dec 28.  Now that it's two weeks away it doesn't feel like the right time due to some details to sort out with paid time off, my supervisor being out on leave and delays in getting healthcare for next year.  Also January is the job's busiest time of year and I'd feel like a jerk to leave right before the workload increases.

So now I'm thinking the end of January 2019.  That way I'll help my team get through the month, plus since I was originally hired in January it will make my career exactly 16 years.  And that will be shortly before my birthday.  This is how I chose my last day of full time work (maybe it doesn't make sense).  I'm posting this here to help make myself accountable.

August

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1481 on: December 16, 2018, 07:03:54 PM »
Are you in the USA? Might be worth working far enough into 2019 to max out tax advantaged space and 0/10/12% fed tax brackets.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


markbike528CBX

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1482 on: December 16, 2018, 07:06:14 PM »
...big snip..... I'm posting this here to help make myself accountable.

August
Welcome August.
As to the quote above," It is on the Internet, so it must be true"
Don't disappoint the Internet !   :-)

August

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1483 on: December 16, 2018, 07:47:37 PM »
Are you in the USA? Might be worth working far enough into 2019 to max out tax advantaged space and 0/10/12% fed tax brackets.

Yes in the USA, wages in January will added to my Roth IRA (less than the annual limit).
However I had these thoughts last year as well.  At some point I have to pick a date and stick with it, regardless of the tax details.

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1484 on: December 16, 2018, 11:48:05 PM »
@Trifele and others who choose to work for their employer's benefit, make sure you do it on your own conditions that make the period bearable. When they need you to work extra time, make sure your working hours are a good fit for you. Or do only -<5 days a week.

It came to mind that I already did this when I was working as a practitioner as a part of my education, in my early twenties. The company wanted to keep me an additional 2-3 months. Then I worked from 9-3, instead on 8-4. And for a good pay bump.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2018, 03:53:21 AM by Linda_Norway »

Trifele

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1485 on: December 17, 2018, 03:41:48 AM »
Welcome @August!  Same situation here -- originally wanted to leave at the very beginning of January, now looking at the end of the month.  It really does get strangely difficult at the very end . . .

Thanks @Linda_Norway -- you are right that the working conditions at the end are critical.  For me they will be fine in terms of number of hours.  I don't work weekends, and I can come and go as I please.  No complaints there.

Hope everyone has a good week!

chasesfish

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1486 on: December 17, 2018, 05:07:23 AM »
@August as someone who also moved their date out, there's a lot of benefit in working a one to a couple months in a new tax year.

Roth IRA eligibility

The income you earn is barely taxable

Potentially maxing employer retirement accounts (my contribution rate for 2019 is set at 50%)

Its not all bad

Eric

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1487 on: December 17, 2018, 10:51:25 AM »
...big snip..... I'm posting this here to help make myself accountable.

August
Welcome August.
As to the quote above," It is on the Internet, so it must be true"
Don't disappoint the Internet !   :-)

Ha!  This is hilarious!

SugarMountain

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1488 on: December 17, 2018, 11:18:12 AM »
Hello, I haven't joined a cohort thread yet.

My resignation date keeps moving.  My final day was originally going to be mid-May 2018 because it was the anniversary of a significant event in my life, then that day came and went.  I thought, how about the end of July, that way I can leave and enjoy the summer weather.  The frenetic pace of work started to slow down, making it more tolerable and I just let it ride through the summer.  I moved my last day to September, then mid-October. 

I definitely want to leave the job, but it turns out that making a big change after working in one place for 15+ years isn't easy.  It's comforting to have a routine and work-friends I see every day.  I have my "bare bones" passive income and budget set, and am ready to dive into projects that I don't have time for now due to the work schedule.  A line had to be drawn so I decided I'd go through the end of the year and leave on Dec 28.  Now that it's two weeks away it doesn't feel like the right time due to some details to sort out with paid time off, my supervisor being out on leave and delays in getting healthcare for next year.  Also January is the job's busiest time of year and I'd feel like a jerk to leave right before the workload increases.

So now I'm thinking the end of January 2019.  That way I'll help my team get through the month, plus since I was originally hired in January it will make my career exactly 16 years.  And that will be shortly before my birthday.  This is how I chose my last day of full time work (maybe it doesn't make sense).  I'm posting this here to help make myself accountable.

August

As someone who is OMY'ing it for really no great reason other than when I tried to quit, the bosses threw out the idea of a job change, which I'm currently trying out.  It's definitely better than before, but it's still not FIRE.  Part of it is it's a lot of easy money to turn down and I think I wasn't really mentally ready when I quit in September (after dithering about it for most of July & August), so I can definitely relate to having a date in mind but not really committing to it.  We'll see if I make my new date in 2019.

A couple of things I've been thinking about a lot that you might want to think about too:
1) Why didn't I quit on that original date?
2) What are the steps I need to take to be ready financially and emotionally to pull the trigger?

For 1) I'd say asset allocation is probably not where it needs to be, questioning whether I really have enough money because the money will never be as easy as it is right now (I'm pretty un-mustachian tbh, but I make a fair amount).  Healthcare continues to be a concern, even more so after Friday's decision.  Even if ACA survives, I think it's going to get more and more expensive, particularly for someone who FAT FIREs so probably won't be very subsidized.  An extra 6-12 months of earnings and theoretical market growth can defray that.  I also don't feel like DW was really, truly on board, but I think we've gotten past that.
2) Dr. Doom (livingafi.com) had a great post on what he went through prior to FIREing. https://livingafi.com/2015/01/20/midlife-fi-sis/ that is well worth reading.

forward

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1489 on: December 17, 2018, 08:22:36 PM »
Welcome @August!  Same situation here -- originally wanted to leave at the very beginning of January, now looking at the end of the month.  It really does get strangely difficult at the very end . . .

Thanks @Linda_Norway -- you are right that the working conditions at the end are critical.  For me they will be fine in terms of number of hours.  I don't work weekends, and I can come and go as I please.  No complaints there.

Hope everyone has a good week!

Reading everyone’s progress is a settling exercise for me.  I wish I had a work environment where me bringing up leaving would bring about a request to stay a few more weeks or a nice transition etc.  When I put in my required (by contract) notice of 3 months, I fully expect to be escorted out the door within the day.  They will make it a very negative experience.  I feel like that should make it easier to do but I think I have some kind of Stockholm syndrome. 

Thanks for the well wishes on the week Trifele, I echo them to everyone.  I think this week may be one of the worst ones for me yet, I must keep reminding myself that I have a plan.

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1490 on: December 18, 2018, 03:00:18 AM »

Reading everyone’s progress is a settling exercise for me.  I wish I had a work environment where me bringing up leaving would bring about a request to stay a few more weeks or a nice transition etc.  When I put in my required (by contract) notice of 3 months, I fully expect to be escorted out the door within the day.  They will make it a very negative experience.  I feel like that should make it easier to do but I think I have some kind of Stockholm syndrome. 

Thanks for the well wishes on the week Trifele, I echo them to everyone.  I think this week may be one of the worst ones for me yet, I must keep reminding myself that I have a plan.

Oh @forward, that really sucks.  In theory that should make it easier, but I can see how that would mess with your head.  And it sounds like things are rough in general.  Do you have any time off coming up?   

Linda_Norway

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1491 on: December 18, 2018, 04:23:58 AM »
DH yesterday asked a critical question about my FIRE spreadsheet. I asked for help on the forum about how to solved the problem.

Last night I couldn't sleep. I spent the evening battling excel and getting nowhere at all. All night I had excel formulas in my head and worried about having to work for an additional number of years.

Now, with some help from the forum, I fixed a new spreadsheet, which I think is quite correct. Added all the taxes we pay in my country. I simplified it with making an overview of all years on 1 page, instead of 1 sheet per year that I had earlier.

The numbers are still in the same ballpark, luckily. Although we need to discuss the details (parameter values) at home.
My earlier sheet had 2019 as FIRE year, but with an income for 8 months. Now I just dropped 2019 from the spreadsheet. In 2019 we just need to earn enough to pay for the remaining of 2019 and then we can stop when we have earned enough.
The plan is to be able to not work at all from 2020. But it is clearly visible in my spreadsheet now that we can earn about $5000 per person tax free per year until 2033. So this opens up for some side-gigs, which might be smart to do.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1492 on: December 18, 2018, 06:05:06 AM »
I'm teetering on officially removing myself from this cohort.

With the markets dropping this quickly, even at current valuations I am getting pushed into late 2019 before I will be at a 4% WR (individually). As a couple we are only at ~13x annual expenses right now.

Much of my decision will depend on what happens with the equities markets in the coming months/year.

dude

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1493 on: December 18, 2018, 06:58:18 AM »
I'm teetering on officially removing myself from this cohort.

With the markets dropping this quickly, even at current valuations I am getting pushed into late 2019 before I will be at a 4% WR (individually). As a couple we are only at ~13x annual expenses right now.

Much of my decision will depend on what happens with the equities markets in the coming months/year.

I was just going to ask that question on this forum -- have the recent market moves made anyone reconsider 2019?  I'm down close to $50k so far (could have been much worse, but I shifted to a 50/50 mix well over a year ago), but I've still got plenty of money to comfortably finance FIRE withdrawals IF it doesn't get too much worse. And then again, I've got a cash buffer (to supplement my pension) to get me through the remainder of 2019, if I have to. And at this point, I've locked in the notion that I'm retiring in May and really cannot fathom having to stick around, so I guess in the worst case I'd just have to tighten the belt and skip some travel next year. And at any rate, anything can happen between now and May. I don't see the kind of problems out there that existed in 2008 to make me think we're going to see that kind of drop again, but certainly 20% isn't out of the question as values revert to the mean.

Lews Therin

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1494 on: December 18, 2018, 07:05:35 AM »
I'm pushing three months, but only because that's worth almost 50k worth extra + a paid for move to hit an exact day (12 years in). (that's more than half my salary)

I'm also getting 17 vacation days for that 3 months, so it's all around ridiculous to stop early.

The market did help push me a bit, but I'd simply do next year's travel by doing house-sitting instead of AirBnB and it would cover the shortfall.

Or work 1 day a week in a brewery.

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1495 on: December 18, 2018, 10:01:48 AM »
@Lews Therin - sounds like a great tradeoff. I'm also in the process of trying to determine when to take my sabbatical to best optimize stock vesting & vacation time when/if I come back. It's a delicate dance, & I also would like my sabbatical to straddle both time with kids off of school, and time with kids in school. I'm hoping that will give me a good feel of what it would be like if I made this permanent.

SugarMountain

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1496 on: December 18, 2018, 10:08:39 AM »
I'm teetering on officially removing myself from this cohort.

With the markets dropping this quickly, even at current valuations I am getting pushed into late 2019 before I will be at a 4% WR (individually). As a couple we are only at ~13x annual expenses right now.

Much of my decision will depend on what happens with the equities markets in the coming months/year.

You are 31 and hopefully would have a 60+ year retirement.  I would posit that where the market is in 2019 is somewhat irrelevant to whether you will have a successful ER that lasts that long.  I think there is danger in taking 4% WR as any sort of guarantee and if speculators drive up stock prices enough that you're at 4% you're good to go.

(One interesting conundrum I've thought about some is I had planned to retire this summer.  The market is down about 12% since my targeted date, which was literally within like 2 days of the peak. If I retire tomorrow, does this mean I have 12% less to spend per year for the rest of my life?  Why or why not? I mean, I could pretend that I retired back then and if anything I'm better off with 3 more months of earnings and say it's just been a side gig.)

SugarMountain

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1497 on: December 18, 2018, 10:19:08 AM »
With the markets dropping this quickly

One other note.  This correction has not been very fast or deep by historical standards.  Heck, 2008 had multiple *days* where the market dropped almost 10%.

Not sure if the photo I attempted to add worked. You can see the chart for the S&P 500 annual returns here: https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns

2Birds1Stone

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1498 on: December 18, 2018, 10:36:00 AM »
@SugarMountain, oy!!! I struggle with the same conundrum.......but if you want to read up on it, ERN did a great piece on this and many other topics related to SWR's in a series here.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-intro/

The jist of it being such that if you retired 3 months ago valuations were X so an adjusted SWR would be Y, whereas if you retired after a 12% decline, your at lower valuations and thus your SWR would be theoretically higher.

It's really an excellent series, and takes weeks or even months to consume.

SugarMountain

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Re: 2019 fire cohort
« Reply #1499 on: December 18, 2018, 11:27:26 AM »
@SugarMountain, oy!!! I struggle with the same conundrum.......but if you want to read up on it, ERN did a great piece on this and many other topics related to SWR's in a series here.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-intro/

The jist of it being such that if you retired 3 months ago valuations were X so an adjusted SWR would be Y, whereas if you retired after a 12% decline, your at lower valuations and thus your SWR would be theoretically higher.

It's really an excellent series, and takes weeks or even months to consume.

Thanks for the reminder.  I looked at that a while ago, but didn't really read all of the way through.  I like the little cheatsheet right up front.