Author Topic: 2018 FIRE cohort  (Read 283522 times)

tooqk4u22

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #800 on: November 28, 2017, 10:10:34 AM »
Yes, please rebalance back to your original desired allocation.  Please do NOT spend down all of your cash/bonds during a recession, as if they were a savings account for you to draw on in times of need.

Sol you haven't provided a compelling explanation for your "setting yourself up for failure" comment in the previous post. If holding various AA's between 100% stocks to say 50%stocks/50%bonds are all valid approaches not to mention AA's the change over time like the reverse equity glidepath approach than it hardly seems gloom and doom to spend down a cash/bonds component of your portfolio during a market event as WR plan.

Beyond that without taking into consideration other factors like %WR and ability to change spending from year to year you can't really assess someone's FIRE plan based on one component.

If there is a fatal flaw to the approach you are criticising please explain it more clearly.

What people are describing is essentially the Rising Equity Glidepath whether they mean it or not, and contrary to what Sol and Edgema say - it does have merit.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2017, 10:12:35 AM by tooqk4u22 »

Retire-Canada

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #801 on: November 28, 2017, 10:12:05 AM »
Of course the reality is that if you are 80% or more in equities equities then all of this is pretty incremental as 95% (citation needed) of your risk is in equities anyway.

For myself and the other folks who seem to be talking about a similar approach the bond/cash allocation is 20% or less - essentially a few years of spending. I'll probably be closer to 10%. I don't plan on setting a specific % at which I will take action. I feel like I am able to make decisions around spending in FIRE based on my portfolio value and market returns.

To your example I can construct a scenario where the spend bonds/cash first approach is superior. Ultimately without knowledge of the future that doesn't tell us anything, but I agree with your point above given the constellation of reasonable asset allocations and WR approaches I don't see a compelling argument for fear of failure in any of them.

In any case if there is interest we can certainly start another thread about this topic.

edgema

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #802 on: November 28, 2017, 10:15:43 AM »
But following the link the conclusions state;

"Overall, the results show that rising equity glide paths from conservative starting points can achieve superior results, even with lower average lifetime equity exposure. For instance, a portfolio that starts at 30 percent in equities and finishes at 60 percent performs better than a portfolio that starts and finishes at 60 percent equities. A steady or rising glide path provides superior results compared to starting at 60 percent equities and declining to 30 percent over time."

At the typical MMM person is 1) younger and 2) way higher than the percentage equities here. I am not sure it is applicable.

rpr

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #803 on: November 28, 2017, 10:16:46 AM »
My apologies as well for going off-topic. I asked about this earlier in the thread. I'd love to have this discussion continue in a separate thread. Is there a way to get the relevant posts to be part of the thread.

tooqk4u22

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #804 on: November 28, 2017, 10:37:50 AM »
I don't think there is necessarily a fatal flaw, but I also don't see the approach as an asset allocation approach.

You are correct, the strategy being discussed is more of a volatility approach than AA but some saying 1-2 years only then I would tend to agree with you and Sol that it might impart more risk than less bc it might not provide sufficient time exposure to get through down or more importantly flat then down markets. 
But following the link the conclusions state;

"Overall, the results show that rising equity glide paths from conservative starting points can achieve superior results, even with lower average lifetime equity exposure. For instance, a portfolio that starts at 30 percent in equities and finishes at 60 percent performs better than a portfolio that starts and finishes at 60 percent equities. A steady or rising glide path provides superior results compared to starting at 60 percent equities and declining to 30 percent over time."

At the typical MMM person is 1) younger and 2) way higher than the percentage equities here. I am not sure it is applicable.

Maybe but that really hasn't been the discussion, the discussion has been AA vs. living off bonds/cash for couple of years.  So the Rising Equity Glidepath is applicable as it just means a higher Bond/Cash position than your normal AA and then over a certain timeframe increases to your desired AA whether that be starting at 30/700 and going to 60/40, or 60/40 going to 100/0 or anywhere in between but the premise is the same - reduce conservative holdings over time...but it does say this in the linked article

"Depending on the underlying assumptions, the optimal starting equity exposures are generally around 20 percent to 40 percent and finish at around 40 percent to 80 percent."

and in the implications section at the end...

"The implications of this research for financial planners are significant. Results suggest that the traditional approach of maintaining constant asset allocations in retirement, which are routinely rebalanced, are actually far less than optimal. Although such an approach is actually superior to decreasing equity exposure through retirement, the results of this study reveal that the best solution may be to steadily increase equity exposure throughout retirement, while starting at a lower initial equity exposure."


Basically...
...when markets have high/good returns, doesn't matter other than it leaves you with way more money then you will need and heirs will be happy.
...when markets rise in the beginning but fall after glidepath years, equities grow beyond what you need reducing risk of sequence and likely allowing higher WR but maybe more volatility later but doesn't matter bc you have more than enough bc of early growth
...when markets decline in beginning, gives time for equities to recover back to base level reducing sequence risk and have expected levels of investments.
...when markets have low/negative returns over long term, doesn't matter because no AA will help you but this way might extend the race a bit.

Sounds like a win win.....lower volatility, increased likelihood of success


brooklynguy

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #805 on: November 28, 2017, 12:01:12 PM »
Do you [sol] have any sources to back up the "setting yourself up for failure" comment above? Have you read some analysis or done some yourself showing how the approach you are criticising is likely to fail?

The following Kitces article summarizes research demonstrating that the use of cash buffer strategies substantially increased historical failure rates (when compared to a baseline of using an identical asset allocation without employing a cash buffer) across a range of different stock/bond asset allocations and different withdrawal rates.  So, while using a cash buffer doesn't necessarily "set you up for failure," it does increase your likelihood of failure (based, like all Trinity-style SWR analysis, on historical market performance).

Kitces:  Research Reveals Cash Reserve Strategies Don’t Work...Unless You're A Good Market Timer?

Again, I don't think cash buffer strategies are necessarily bad (and, as the article points out, they may be superior after accounting for behavioral/psychological factors, in the case of investors who lack the discipline to stick to their chosen asset allocation in the absence of a cash buffer).  But they are probably worse than straight constant-asset-allocation-maintenance-via-rebalancing for investors with the disposition to actually follow that approach.

Retire-Canada

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #806 on: November 28, 2017, 12:10:47 PM »
Do you [sol] have any sources to back up the "setting yourself up for failure" comment above? Have you read some analysis or done some yourself showing how the approach you are criticising is likely to fail?

The following Kitces article summarizes research demonstrating that the use of cash buffer strategies substantially increased historical failure rates (when compared to a baseline of using an identical asset allocation without employing a cash buffer) across a range of different stock/bond asset allocations and different withdrawal rates.  So, while using a cash buffer doesn't necessarily "set you up for failure," it does increase your likelihood of failure (based, like all Trinity-style SWR analysis, on historical market performance).

Kitces:  Research Reveals Cash Reserve Strategies Don’t Work...Unless You're A Good Market Timer?

From that paper:

Quote
THE BOTTOM LINE

In the end, the reality is that while cash reserve strategies appear psychologically appealing, their actual benefits as an enhancement for retirement income sustainability appear to be a mirage upon closer inspection. The buffer zone approach appears to do little to effectively “time” the market, and/or to the extent it does, the benefits are overwhelmed by the adverse consequences of a large allocation of cash in the portfolio that drags down long-term returns. Notably, though, separate research has shown that shifting equity exposure in light of market volatility (and based on fundamental valuation principles) can in fact enhance both returns, risk-adjusted returns, and the sustainability of retirement income – and without the unfavorable impact of an unduly large cash position.

The issue he has is with holding cash. Changing your asset allocation in response to market conditions seems to be something he favours. I'll try and track down the related paper.

sol

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #807 on: November 28, 2017, 12:17:50 PM »
What people are describing is essentially the Rising Equity Glidepath whether they mean it or not

No.  Not at all.

The rising equity glidepath modifies your AA over time as a function of your retirement date.  It totally ignores market conditions because asset allocation theory totally ignores market conditions.  The whole point of asset allocation theory is that you maintain the percentages despite the market ups and downs.  The rising glidepath is predicated on an understanding of asset allocation, and then branches out from there to suggest a way to modify the AA as your needs change with age.  Just age.  Not market condition.

What these peeps are doing is just market timing.  They think they can predict when the market is going down, and by how much and for how long, and that they can strategically choose what to buy and sell to outperform the index portfolio throughout these fluctuations.  They are trying to be active fund managers of their private funds.  Active fund managers, historically, underperform the market. 

The best performing portfolios are always the ones that never do anything except rebalance back to their original percentages.  That's why AA theory exists.  That's the central finding of the entire body of literature about it.

But I don't control your funds, and we are each free to try to outperform the market in any way we see fit.  If you think you are smarter than the hedge fund quants, go right ahead and play the market any way you like.  I'll be over here in the corner, getting my guaranteed risk-adjusted market average returns by doing nothing at all.  I will get slightly less than the full S&P500 gains during the bulls, and I will lose slightly less during the bears, and my assets will continue to grow steadily over the long term without me having to make any predictions about what will happen next.

Which doesn't mean you can't make all the predictions you like.  It's your money.  I'm just quietly pointing out that market timing has historically been a losing strategy (hence the "failure" comment) for most adherents, and then advocating that this thread's passive readers keep that in mind when evaluating people's claims about how awesome they will do in the next recession.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2017, 12:21:01 PM by sol »
sol will be totally offline for most of June 2018.  You cannot reach me.  You will not hear from me.  I am not dead, just away from civilization.

Retire-Canada

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #808 on: November 28, 2017, 12:31:00 PM »
Which doesn't mean you can't make all the predictions you like.  It's your money.  I'm just quietly pointing out that market timing has historically been a losing strategy (hence the "failure" comment) for most adherents, and then advocating that this thread's passive readers keep that in mind when evaluating people's claims about how awesome they will do in the next recession.

Got it. That was a whole different meaning of the word failure than I was understanding [ie. portfolio/FIRE failure].

Fresh Bread

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #809 on: November 28, 2017, 12:46:50 PM »
I think this sort of discussion is very relevant to the thread. We're at the pointy end now, a few months to go so it's good to go over all this.

edgema

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #810 on: November 28, 2017, 03:27:46 PM »
I think we are in danger of mixing a bunch of concepts here. The glide path approach is dependent on starting at much lower equity allocations and rising mechanically offer time. This is quite different from what we have been discussing or what most people are planning to do or are at now.

Not that you are looking for my financial advice Retire Canada, but I would argue that at 90% equities this is all quite academic. If this is your main stash then you are staking your retirement on equity returns. Some are proponents of this and others not. In any given year the move up or down in markets will often be as large in dollars as your cash pot so most of what we have discussed will make little real difference.

The real difference for you is that it sounds like you are OK with more volatility on the stash and can / are ok with significantly altering your draw from this capital making this is your main risk management tool rather than asset allocation.

rpr

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #811 on: November 28, 2017, 04:39:45 PM »
Thanks for this discussion, especially the link to the Pfau and Kitces paper on Rising Equity glide paths.

Couple things I saw:
--  maximum sustainable withdrawal rate of around 3% for a 10% failure probability for lower expected future returns (Table 4)
--  If returns are same as historical, then MWR is 4.4% (Table 6)
--  Also MWR is better when starting % of equities are below 50% of portfolio in all cases

Interesting. I will read it more carefully.

« Last Edit: November 28, 2017, 09:16:59 PM by rpr »

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #812 on: November 29, 2017, 07:44:36 AM »
I've enjoyed the debate, as someone trying to determine how to weight our overall portfolio. We are heavily indexed in tech (given stock options from employer), own a big piece of real estate, and have large 401Ks in the market. I plan to quit in 2018, but my husband will continue working. Given that, and the potential for volatility in any of those investments, I have a significant amount in high yield savings accounts & bonds. When you look at our overall net worth, it looks like a reasonable balance, but it's a lot of our immediately available assets.

Question for you all: when determining your portfolio mix, are you also including real estate & (if relevant), would you consider employer stock?

Retire-Canada

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #813 on: November 29, 2017, 08:13:22 AM »
Not that you are looking for my financial advice Retire Canada, but I would argue that at 90% equities this is all quite academic. If this is your main stash then you are staking your retirement on equity returns. Some are proponents of this and others not. In any given year the move up or down in markets will often be as large in dollars as your cash pot so most of what we have discussed will make little real difference.

The real difference for you is that it sounds like you are OK with more volatility on the stash and can / are ok with significantly altering your draw from this capital making this is your main risk management tool rather than asset allocation.

My FIRE risk management plan is 5 layers deep so yes I would not ever rely on any one component of the plan for the success of my FIRE. For the people I know reasonably well who are approaching FIRE they also have plans that are multi-faceted to mitigate risk. I hope nobody in the Class of 2018 is heading for the finish line without several ways to defend against FIRE failure.

Gimesalot

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #814 on: November 29, 2017, 08:43:58 AM »
Question for you all: when determining your portfolio mix, are you also including real estate & (if relevant), would you consider employer stock?

Regarding real estate, we have a 4-plex that we are renting out, so we are counting the income from the building, but not the value in out assets.  Also, if yu are planning to sell your residence, you could count the profit in your assets.  Otherwise, I don't think it makes sense, since you aren't able to easily tap those investments.

I would consider the employer stock but I would also start selling small portions and moving the money to an index fund instead.

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #815 on: November 29, 2017, 09:48:26 AM »
Question for you all: when determining your portfolio mix, are you also including real estate & (if relevant), would you consider employer stock?

Regarding real estate, we have a 4-plex that we are renting out, so we are counting the income from the building, but not the value in out assets.  Also, if yu are planning to sell your residence, you could count the profit in your assets.  Otherwise, I don't think it makes sense, since you aren't able to easily tap those investments.

I would consider the employer stock but I would also start selling small portions and moving the money to an index fund instead.

Our FIRE strategy is multiphased, and starts with me quitting. Then, us selling the house in 6-7 years when the kids are out of school. Next, my husband will have the option to quit (should he want  - he likes working & has no current plan to retire at 60). If we needed to, we could also then start accessing our 401Ks. Given the real estate market we're in, we would sell our current house in 6-7 years, and move somewhere with a significantly lower COL & pay in cash for another house.

I'm with you on selling the stock. I do an autosale monthly for tax purposes, but my husband has been holding (we work for the same company), which makes me nervous.

Retire-Canada

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #816 on: November 29, 2017, 09:52:38 AM »
I'm with you on selling the stock. I do an autosale monthly for tax purposes, but my husband has been holding (we work for the same company), which makes me nervous.

What % of you net worth is your company stock and your hubby's?

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #817 on: November 29, 2017, 09:58:47 AM »
I'm with you on selling the stock. I do an autosale monthly for tax purposes, but my husband has been holding (we work for the same company), which makes me nervous.

What % of you net worth is your company stock and your hubby's?

For vested stock, it's a very small percentage, but increases monthly. Currently, it's around 4%. For unvested stock for my husband (ignoring mine, as I will walk away when I FIRE), closer to 14%

tooqk4u22

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #818 on: November 29, 2017, 02:27:55 PM »
I'm with you on selling the stock. I do an autosale monthly for tax purposes, but my husband has been holding (we work for the same company), which makes me nervous.

What % of you net worth is your company stock and your hubby's?

For vested stock, it's a very small percentage, but increases monthly. Currently, it's around 4%. For unvested stock for my husband (ignoring mine, as I will walk away when I FIRE), closer to 14%

I never counted unvested in my NW as it can be left on the table if you walk away like you are or get terminated for whatever....plus it is likely that if you have received stock you will continue to receive it while at the same time older stock is vesting, so there will always be a tail of unvested stock until you qualify for traditional retirement per your company's plan.

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #819 on: November 29, 2017, 02:39:10 PM »
I'm with you on selling the stock. I do an autosale monthly for tax purposes, but my husband has been holding (we work for the same company), which makes me nervous.

What % of you net worth is your company stock and your hubby's?

For vested stock, it's a very small percentage, but increases monthly. Currently, it's around 4%. For unvested stock for my husband (ignoring mine, as I will walk away when I FIRE), closer to 14%

I never counted unvested in my NW as it can be left on the table if you walk away like you are or get terminated for whatever....plus it is likely that if you have received stock you will continue to receive it while at the same time older stock is vesting, so there will always be a tail of unvested stock until you qualify for traditional retirement per your company's plan.

Agreed (although, no traditional retirement to plan for), but the question I'm wondering about is whether it makes sense to include some for my husband. For example, if he plans to work for current employer for 5 years, is there a discounted version of the equity I would want to account for? Or, skip? Doesn't really matter, but requires more active portfolio management, as every month I'm increasing stock investment.

tooqk4u22

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #820 on: November 29, 2017, 02:48:02 PM »
Agreed (although, no traditional retirement to plan for), but the question I'm wondering about is whether it makes sense to include some for my husband. For example, if he plans to work for current employer for 5 years, is there a discounted version of the equity I would want to account for? Or, skip? Doesn't really matter, but requires more active portfolio management, as every month I'm increasing stock investment.

I am sure we could think of many ways to count it from simple to complex...I don't like active, so the two passive are count it or don't count it for me.  I don't and haven't counted it bc I have no control over it and if I count it then it might act like bronze/silver (no gold for me) handcuffs, and of course I don't like handcuffs.  The reality is you are not increasing your stock investment until the day it invests bc you/he can't sell/exchange/own until then and once they vest you/he can make a decision as to whether or not to hold or sell and put into index funds (equities or bonds).  Further there are tax consequences when they vest and/or sell.  Just easier not to count...

If it helps think of it as future income potential over the series of years.  Along those lines will you take you hubby's paycheck for the next series of years and add that to net worth? Probably not, unvested stock is no different IMO.

chasesfish

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #821 on: December 02, 2017, 05:11:00 AM »
Well, last week of November, that was a nice ride!   How do everyone's numbers look after that?  Any movement up of dates?
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Cherry Lane

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #822 on: December 02, 2017, 07:22:31 AM »
Well, last week of November, that was a nice ride!   How do everyone's numbers look after that?  Any movement up of dates?

Sure was! It left me $10k away from my "number", with 3.5 months left to go. When I set my FIRE date a year ago, I had little expectation of actually reaching that number.

Retire-Canada

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #823 on: December 02, 2017, 07:37:23 AM »
Well, last week of November, that was a nice ride!   How do everyone's numbers look after that?  Any movement up of dates?

I'm tantalizingly close to my next milestone [$1M NW]. I'm far enough away from my FIRE target that I'm not making any changes to expected dates, but if the tax bill passes and the run keeps going it's possible I could move things up. The faster it goes up the faster it can come right back down so I'm not getting too excited about things yet.

NinetyFour

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #824 on: December 02, 2017, 07:40:36 AM »
Well, last week of November, that was a nice ride!   How do everyone's numbers look after that?  Any movement up of dates?

Sure was! It left me $10k away from my "number", with 3.5 months left to go. When I set my FIRE date a year ago, I had little expectation of actually reaching that number.

Good for you, CL!!  That's gotta feel great!

I am on the academic year, so I can't move up my date.  Well, I suppose I could up and quit at the end of this semester (2 weeks), but not without burning some serious bridges.  So I'm sticking with my plan.  I will teach my last class on April 19, 2018.  I was planning to attend graduation on 4/28, but then an MMM Meetup in Vancouver was scheduled for that same weekend.  That sounds like a lot more fun!

After the discussion about cash, bonds, etc. in case of a downturn, I'm kind of confused.  I will have another $100K of income to stash away between now and June 30, and I'm unsure of where to put it.  Should I put the details here in this thread, in my journal, or in a brand new thread?  Thanks.

aperture

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #825 on: December 02, 2017, 08:35:50 AM »
Well, last week of November, that was a nice ride!   How do everyone's numbers look after that?  Any movement up of dates?

We don't track our assets monthly or even quarterly.  There is too much opportunity for crazy-making with the ups and downs of the market.  About twice a year I total our numbers and put the new values in the spreadsheet. 

Actually, we do not budget either.  We just try to keep doing what we are doing, and when there is big spending on something (my DW and I are taking a trip to Amsterdam to celebrate our anniversary), I increase the side-hustle and squeeze a little more $s out of daily life.  Retire-Canada mentions having 5 levels of fail-safe on his retirement plan, and that is about where we are, so not a lot of need to check vitals at every instance.

I think that when I am no longer working, and have more time, I will look at the dollars more - just to assure myself that the math still works.  Best wishes, aperture.
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DavidAnnArbor

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #826 on: December 02, 2017, 11:56:01 AM »
Well, last week of November, that was a nice ride!   How do everyone's numbers look after that?  Any movement up of dates?

Sure was! It left me $10k away from my "number", with 3.5 months left to go. When I set my FIRE date a year ago, I had little expectation of actually reaching that number.

Good for you, CL!!  That's gotta feel great!

I am on the academic year, so I can't move up my date.  Well, I suppose I could up and quit at the end of this semester (2 weeks), but not without burning some serious bridges.  So I'm sticking with my plan.  I will teach my last class on April 19, 2018.  I was planning to attend graduation on 4/28, but then an MMM Meetup in Vancouver was scheduled for that same weekend.  That sounds like a lot more fun!

After the discussion about cash, bonds, etc. in case of a downturn, I'm kind of confused.  I will have another $100K of income to stash away between now and June 30, and I'm unsure of where to put it.  Should I put the details here in this thread, in my journal, or in a brand new thread?  Thanks.

I would think posting the question in investor alley section is a good place.

sol

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #827 on: December 02, 2017, 12:13:30 PM »
I will have another $100K of income to stash away between now and June 30, and I'm unsure of where to put it.

I'll save you the trouble of reposting in the Investor Alley subforum.

Do you have a personal investment policy statment (ISP)?  We generally recommend that everyone do some reading and then write their plan down.  Then whenver you have a question or you get an urge to do something crazy, you check your ISP and ask yourself if you're still following your plan, and if not then what has changed to cause you to abandon it?

The core of your ISP is choosing your asset allocation.  Any time you get more money, you should invest it according to your ISP, which usually means immediately investing all of it at your chosen asset allocation, or at the very least gradually adding it monthly chunks to your chosen asset allocation.

If your AA is making you nervous about throwing another 100k into it, then your AA is probably too risky for you.  You need to choose an AA that you can stick with through the good times and the bad, no matter what the market is doing.  That's how an AA works for you.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2017, 06:05:26 PM by sol »
sol will be totally offline for most of June 2018.  You cannot reach me.  You will not hear from me.  I am not dead, just away from civilization.

Monkey Uncle

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #828 on: December 02, 2017, 04:15:30 PM »
Well, last week of November, that was a nice ride!   How do everyone's numbers look after that?  Any movement up of dates?

No, but I've only got 35 days left as it is!
Took that job and shoved it - January 6, 2018

poppydog

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #829 on: December 03, 2017, 08:30:31 AM »
A new applicant here to the 2018 cohort.  Mrs PD and me will retire on Friday 27 April 2018, aged 63/59. Not so much RE I know - we were both subjected to financially damaging divorces in our forties.  We came up with our FI plan about 6 years ago and it has worked out really well.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2017, 07:12:21 AM by poppydog »

aperture

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #830 on: December 03, 2017, 08:44:10 AM »
A new applicant here to the 2018 cohort.  Mrs PD and me will retire on Friday 27 April 2018, aged 63/59. Bit so much RE I know - we were both subjected to financially damaging divorces in our forties.  We came up with our FI plan about 6 years ago and it has worked out really well.

Congrats and welcome poppydog and señora poppydog. 
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msilenus

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #831 on: December 09, 2017, 01:25:55 PM »
Okay, pencil me in for May-ish. :)

We hit a theoretical FI number a year ago, but we have a baroque plan that might call for some extra buffer in ways that aren't obvious how to reason about.   We're expecting to stay in an HCOL area (silicon valley) until our youngest is through the local school system (which locals know leaks a lot of info about how very high H. the C.O.L. is here).  FIRE isn't viable if we're living here forever, but cFireCalc gives it high marks even with a downsizing 14 years out.  This model values our home as tracking inflation in the interim, but not appreciating beyond where it is now.  Still: feels prone to historical accidents around how two timing points (FIRE + downsize) align w/ historical economic performance.  So: OMY, at least.  (Check.)

Since then, DW called it quits at work to homeschool the oldest.  (Public school wasn't working well for him.  Homeschooling's going great though.)  Work said "how about a leave of absence for a year instead and then see how things are going?"  That's no-lose for her, so that's what she's doing.  She likes a lot of what she does there, so she might go back on a dramatically reduced schedule retaining the low-stress stuff.

Meanwhile, I had been churning away at some really interesting challenges at work that have since reached their natural conclusions.  It's a good time to turn the page.  Two things holding me back, for now.  First is economic.  On 1/1, marginal tax rate drops down to zero temporarily.  Also, a bunch of benefits reset, most notably the generous pretax 401(k) match that I can frontload.  Second is lifestyle: daily bike commutes, free tasty protein at work, and job responsibilities that are fairly chill right now.  We're FI, but not so loaded or confident that I want to pass on money earned that efficiently.

Lots could change, but I think the overwhelming likelihood is I pull the trigger next year.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #832 on: December 09, 2017, 03:15:13 PM »
Okay, pencil me in for May-ish. :)

We hit a theoretical FI number a year ago, but we have a baroque plan that might call for some extra buffer in ways that aren't obvious how to reason about.   We're expecting to stay in an HCOL area (silicon valley) until our youngest is through the local school system (which locals know leaks a lot of info about how very high H. the C.O.L. is here).  FIRE isn't viable if we're living here forever, but cFireCalc gives it high marks even with a downsizing 14 years out.  This model values our home as tracking inflation in the interim, but not appreciating beyond where it is now.  Still: feels prone to historical accidents around how two timing points (FIRE + downsize) align w/ historical economic performance.  So: OMY, at least.  (Check.)

Since then, DW called it quits at work to homeschool the oldest.  (Public school wasn't working well for him.  Homeschooling's going great though.)  Work said "how about a leave of absence for a year instead and then see how things are going?"  That's no-lose for her, so that's what she's doing.  She likes a lot of what she does there, so she might go back on a dramatically reduced schedule retaining the low-stress stuff.

Meanwhile, I had been churning away at some really interesting challenges at work that have since reached their natural conclusions.  It's a good time to turn the page.  Two things holding me back, for now.  First is economic.  On 1/1, marginal tax rate drops down to zero temporarily.  Also, a bunch of benefits reset, most notably the generous pretax 401(k) match that I can frontload.  Second is lifestyle: daily bike commutes, free tasty protein at work, and job responsibilities that are fairly chill right now.  We're FI, but not so loaded or confident that I want to pass on money earned that efficiently.

Lots could change, but I think the overwhelming likelihood is I pull the trigger next year.

You can also post your numbers on bogleheads and see what they say about your retirement expectations.

Monkey Uncle

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #833 on: December 09, 2017, 03:58:34 PM »
Just had to chime in to say, 28 days 'til FIRE!  Woo hoo!
Took that job and shoved it - January 6, 2018

Retire-Canada

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #834 on: December 09, 2017, 04:42:59 PM »
Just had to chime in to say, 28 days 'til FIRE!  Woo hoo!

Nice. :)

happy

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #835 on: December 10, 2017, 03:38:55 AM »
Just had to chime in to say, 28 days 'til FIRE!  Woo hoo!

Nice. :)

yeah...be sure to post and let us know how good it is!
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chasesfish

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #836 on: December 10, 2017, 05:10:49 AM »
Just had to chime in to say, 28 days 'til FIRE!  Woo hoo!

I can't wait to see the first long-time poster for 2018 drop into ER....(I know we've had a few people leave to the 2017 crowd).

I told a Choose FI meetup group yesterday I was still a bit terrified of pulling that lever
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Monkey Uncle

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #837 on: December 10, 2017, 03:48:05 PM »
Just had to chime in to say, 28 days 'til FIRE!  Woo hoo!

I can't wait to see the first long-time poster for 2018 drop into ER....(I know we've had a few people leave to the 2017 crowd).

I told a Choose FI meetup group yesterday I was still a bit terrified of pulling that lever

Looks like it's going to be between Gimesalot and me.  He/she says 1/5, I say 1/6.  I think both of us are targeting 1/5 as our last day at work, but I'm technically on the payroll through Saturday, 1/6.
Took that job and shoved it - January 6, 2018

LateStarter

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #838 on: December 10, 2017, 04:21:53 PM »
Slight change of plans for me. April was always optimistic . . . Need a bit more time to top up, and I've decided to sell my house.

Probable window is now Oct 2018 - April 2019. 2018 is still a strong possibility so please move me to 21 Dec 2018 for now.

Like others, I'm looking forward to seeing the list slowly get confirmed once 2018 kicks off. Good luck all !!

happy

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #839 on: December 11, 2017, 04:25:23 AM »
My earliest date is 20th October, just over 10 months away. Woo-hoo! It remains to be seen whether I  will need to move the date into 2019.
Journalling at Happy Aussie Downshifter

Gimesalot

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #840 on: December 11, 2017, 09:56:42 AM »

Looks like it's going to be between Gimesalot and me.  He/she says 1/5, I say 1/6.  I think both of us are targeting 1/5 as our last day at work, but I'm technically on the payroll through Saturday, 1/6.

Actually, since I work 4-10's it looks like my last day will be on 1/4, on payroll through 1/6.  I haven't given notice yet even though I was planning to give it last Thursday.  I have said it before, but I am scared shit-less of giving up my job.  I make good money, $150k/year, and don't do much at work (about 4 hours a week), but the requirement of being here 40-hours a week just no longer suits my temperament.

 It's funny how OMY is real.  I used to read all the posts about people who OMY-ed and I thought they were nuts!  Now, I am at the point and I am considering it as well.  Lucky for me, my husband has already resigned from a job that is driving him crazy, so I have no choice.


MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #841 on: December 11, 2017, 10:24:37 AM »
I've been waiting for today for a while now, as I received my comp planning for the next year or so, including my 2017 bonus. Finally got the numbers! They are doing their absolute best to make sure I stay. :-) But, my 2017 bonus (paid out in January of 2018) is higher than I'd expected/planned for, which will really help the numbers. I'm still waiting to see what my stock vest schedule will be like for this grant. Some of my grants our monthly, others quarterly, and the occasional 1/2 year grant. So, once I see the dates, I will set a final end/FIRE date. But, June still looks promising given the other factors. I also got a second raise (got one with a promotion back in October), so feeling really good about that. It was a total surprise.

Other than telling my husband, I was most excited to re-run my FIRE numbers & post here. :-)

JLTinVA

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #842 on: December 11, 2017, 10:30:54 AM »
Mr. JLTinVA managed to get himself laid off with a great severance package (woohoo!), so his date moved from 3/31/2018 to 12/22/2017. I plan on giving notice as soon as we sell our condo. Cross your fingers for me.

Retire-Canada

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #843 on: December 11, 2017, 10:33:41 AM »
Cross your fingers for me.

Awesome. *fingers crossed*

chasesfish

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #844 on: December 11, 2017, 02:02:12 PM »
I don't know if I'm going to make June of 2018 or delay this until March of 2019.  Its just an obscene amount of money I'm due on March of 2019 and I'm slowly learning how to ride on easy street with my job.  If they terminate me before they terminate me, but I can do too much good in the world.  Leave me up here for now in 2018, there is always the chance I say "I can't take this anymore".
Check out our journal, counting down the days until I Stop Ironing Shirts

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TartanTallulah

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #845 on: December 11, 2017, 04:05:04 PM »
I don't know if I'm going to make June of 2018 or delay this until March of 2019.  Its just an obscene amount of money I'm due on March of 2019 and I'm slowly learning how to ride on easy street with my job.  If they terminate me before they terminate me, but I can do too much good in the world.  Leave me up here for now in 2018, there is always the chance I say "I can't take this anymore".

I'm wavering between those dates too. March 2019 and take my DB pension straight away, leaving everything else invested until my husband retires too, or June 2018 and live off cash savings for 9 months? My latest draft plan is to finish at the end of September 2018 to avoid ruining the vacations that two of my colleagues have booked in July and August. I can't see myself working another winter and never seeing daylight.

An added complication is that I've discovered that one of my colleagues, who has always talked about retiring in 2020, is FI, possibly from an inheritance, and his wife has already retired. If he decides to finish early and puts his resignation in before me, my contract will tie me to the job for the next six months, possibly working short-handed.




chasesfish

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #846 on: December 11, 2017, 04:35:46 PM »
I don't know if I'm going to make June of 2018 or delay this until March of 2019.  Its just an obscene amount of money I'm due on March of 2019 and I'm slowly learning how to ride on easy street with my job.  If they terminate me before they terminate me, but I can do too much good in the world.  Leave me up here for now in 2018, there is always the chance I say "I can't take this anymore".

I'm wavering between those dates too. March 2019 and take my DB pension straight away, leaving everything else invested until my husband retires too, or June 2018 and live off cash savings for 9 months? My latest draft plan is to finish at the end of September 2018 to avoid ruining the vacations that two of my colleagues have booked in July and August. I can't see myself working another winter and never seeing daylight.

An added complication is that I've discovered that one of my colleagues, who has always talked about retiring in 2020, is FI, possibly from an inheritance, and his wife has already retired. If he decides to finish early and puts his resignation in before me, my contract will tie me to the job for the next six months, possibly working short-handed.

I don't have the same complications on replacing my position, but its a fine balance on how early I let my boss know when I'm close to one more in-line promotion.

I have a large round of restricted stock due in February of 2019 then bonuses are paid in March.  The additional year is VERY accretive to my pension math, which is based on your last five consecutive earning years.  2018 would be nearly double the income of 2013.  I really don't *need* the money, but its a huge safety net and it gives me the flexibility for both philanthropy on a couple of causes that are important to us plus the ability to do some angel/venture investing.
Check out our journal, counting down the days until I Stop Ironing Shirts

We hit $1mil by 33 and will retire at 36!  Stop by over at my site Stop Ironing Shirts

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #847 on: December 11, 2017, 05:38:26 PM »
I don't know if I'm going to make June of 2018 or delay this until March of 2019.  Its just an obscene amount of money I'm due on March of 2019 and I'm slowly learning how to ride on easy street with my job.  If they terminate me before they terminate me, but I can do too much good in the world.  Leave me up here for now in 2018, there is always the chance I say "I can't take this anymore".

I'm wavering between those dates too. March 2019 and take my DB pension straight away, leaving everything else invested until my husband retires too, or June 2018 and live off cash savings for 9 months? My latest draft plan is to finish at the end of September 2018 to avoid ruining the vacations that two of my colleagues have booked in July and August. I can't see myself working another winter and never seeing daylight.

An added complication is that I've discovered that one of my colleagues, who has always talked about retiring in 2020, is FI, possibly from an inheritance, and his wife has already retired. If he decides to finish early and puts his resignation in before me, my contract will tie me to the job for the next six months, possibly working short-handed.

I don't have the same complications on replacing my position, but its a fine balance on how early I let my boss know when I'm close to one more in-line promotion.

I have a large round of restricted stock due in February of 2019 then bonuses are paid in March.  The additional year is VERY accretive to my pension math, which is based on your last five consecutive earning years.  2018 would be nearly double the income of 2013.  I really don't *need* the money, but its a huge safety net and it gives me the flexibility for both philanthropy on a couple of causes that are important to us plus the ability to do some angel/venture investing.

No pension on my side, but very much in the same boat. If I move past June of 2018, I'm collecting a bunch of stock options that are likely tied to a December of 2018 vest. However, in that case, I'll definitely stay until January 2019, because I get a large bonus. All of that said, I have zero desire to keep going at this pace, and even less of a desire to go up for a pretty much mandatory promotion in September of 2018. It's a ton of work, very highly coveted, & would look like a giant slap in the face to my managers if I quit shortly after that promo.

Basically, I have to decide when "enough is enough". I have enough now. I can easily leave in June. They keep making it harder to leave, and that certainly won't change in 2019. When do I trade off my sanity, health & general life satisfaction? The whole OMY thing is a real challenge!

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #848 on: December 11, 2017, 05:43:59 PM »
Chasesfish : Having extra money for philanthropy and the ability to get involved in some projects would certainly be a big plus. If your job is getting more cruisy it could be an excellent plan.

I'm kind of hoping to pick up bits of work and then donate any 'extra' income to charity or other worthwhile projects. I hadn't thought enough about it til the last year but I've realised it's going to be important to me to give money as well as time. It will be a moral sticking point if I'm retired early with all this cash and not giving away some $$$.

Monkey Uncle

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Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #849 on: December 11, 2017, 06:22:22 PM »

Looks like it's going to be between Gimesalot and me.  He/she says 1/5, I say 1/6.  I think both of us are targeting 1/5 as our last day at work, but I'm technically on the payroll through Saturday, 1/6.

Actually, since I work 4-10's it looks like my last day will be on 1/4, on payroll through 1/6.  I haven't given notice yet even though I was planning to give it last Thursday.  I have said it before, but I am scared shit-less of giving up my job.  I make good money, $150k/year, and don't do much at work (about 4 hours a week), but the requirement of being here 40-hours a week just no longer suits my temperament.

 It's funny how OMY is real.  I used to read all the posts about people who OMY-ed and I thought they were nuts!  Now, I am at the point and I am considering it as well.  Lucky for me, my husband has already resigned from a job that is driving him crazy, so I have no choice.

What is it that you find so scary?  And is it real, or are you catastrophizing in a subconscious attempt to scare yourself out of doing something that is outside your comfort zone?

I've had plenty of fears of my own (plus some of my wife's fears, too).  They are not entirely irrational, as they mostly revolve around health care/insurance uncertainty.  But when I step back and take a look at my numbers, the buffer that I have, and the potential for earning a little part time income in the event that my fears come true, I reach the conclusion that it just isn't worth trading another year of my life for the added layer of security.
Took that job and shoved it - January 6, 2018