Author Topic: 2018 FIRE cohort  (Read 387673 times)

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7506
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1950 on: August 25, 2018, 10:43:08 PM »
Thank you, friends.  I'm taking a few days away from it all to decompress.  Seeing some family, hiking some trails, letting it all sink in while I prepare to make a new plan.  I have approximately 40 years to occupy with something other than time cards and cubicle dwelling, and I don't want to just wing it from here on out.

My attitude towards my former co-workers has already shifted pretty dramatically.  They are no longer part of the problem, even the annoying ones who made my life unnecessarily difficult.  Now they seem more like victims just like I was, trapped in a prison of the mind, unable to see how ridiculous their predicament is.  It's like the inmates are also the jailers.  Maybe it's different in other workplaces, but my office is full of people who should have retired long ago but are too afraid to leap.  They don't believe in themselves enough, and rely on the job to provide not only steady income, but also purpose and direction and meaning.  When in reality, the job is the one thing keeping them from finding those things.  It's sadly ironic, in a way.

Dicey

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8732
  • Age: 60
  • Location: NorCal
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1951 on: August 25, 2018, 11:26:37 PM »
Glad you escaped. Enjoy it all!

SugarMountain

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 579
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1952 on: August 27, 2018, 09:50:49 AM »
Added sui generis to the list.

Let me know if I've missed anything. I have been a little lax in keeping it up to date...



08/01/18  SugarMountain



Has not happened.  Currently in a holding pattern debating OMY.  Will be at least OMM.

So I pulled the trigger and told my boss last Wednesday I was leaving.  His boss met with me on Friday.  They've convinced me to stay at least for the moment.  I'll be changing roles and moving out of management.  It's possible I get to November/December and decide it's not what I want and I pull the trigger again, but I think this is going to end up being a OMY situation.  We'll see.

Vegasgirl

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 150
  • Location: Washington DC Metro
  • Never have a battle of wits with an unarmed person
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1953 on: August 27, 2018, 11:56:23 AM »
Congrats Sol !!

JoJo

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1206
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1954 on: August 27, 2018, 04:53:33 PM »
Congrats Sol!  An inspiration!

CowboyAndIndian

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1277
  • Location: NJ, USA
    • KOWines: Deep discount wine/spirits store.
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1955 on: August 27, 2018, 08:14:14 PM »
Ok, SugarMountain, I'll put your date as undecided. Let me know if you want it moved to OMY...

01/01/18  CowboyAndIndian (at 59) CONFIRMED
01/04/18  Gimesalot (at 33) CONFIRMED
01/06/18  Monkey Uncle (at 49) CONFIRMED
01/26/18  PizzaSteve (at 53) CONFIRMED
01/31/18  patches (at 33) CONFIRMED
01/31/18  Wintergreen78 CONFIRMED
01/31/18  MomCPA  CONFIRMED
02/01/18  DTaggart (at 40) CONFIRMED
02/05/18  Mrbeardedbigbucks CONFIRMED
02/09/18  JLTinVA (at 42) CONFIRMED
02/14/18  Gimesalot DH (at 40) CONFIRMED
02/28/18  Caoineag (at 36) CONFIRMED
03/01/18  Clean Shaven (at 45) CONFIRMED Part Time
03/02/18  brooklynguy (at 37) CONFIRMED
03/07/18  Aegishjalmur (at 35) CONFIRMED
03/16/18  Cherry Lane (at 43) CONFIRMED
03/27/18  Mrs. Honeyfill CONFIRMED
03/28/18  Target2018 CONFIRMED
03/28/18  homestead neohio (at 39) CONFIRMED
03/30/18  Moxie (at 58) CONFIRMED
03/31/18  msilenus (at 38) CONFIRMED
04/01/18  Mother Fussbudget (at 56) CONFIRMED
04/03/18  lostformars (at 38) CONFIRMED
04/04/18  OzBeach (at 54) CONFIRMED
04/20/18  moneytaichi CONFIRMED
04/25/18  Modernaimend DH (at 39) CONFIRMED
04/25/18  ZiziPB (at 50) CONFIRMED
04/26/18  NinetyFour (at 56) CONFIRMED
04/26/18  SwordGuy (at 60) CONFIRMED
04/27/18  poppydog and DW CONFIRMED
04/27/18  andkar (at 41) CONFIRMED
05/01/18  wordnerd and DH (at 30 and 36) CONFIRMED
05/03/18  Modernaimend (at 35) CONFIRMED
05/08/18  SwordGuy DW (SwordGuy isn't saying.   He wants to live.) CONFIRMED
05/11/18  Desert (at 52) CONFIRMED
05/25/18  CheapskateWife (at 42) and CheapskateHubs (at 49) CONFIRMED
05/25/18  Gyosho (at 55) CONFIRMED
06/01/18  CodeZed (at 40) CONFIRMED
06/01/18  Markbike528CBX (at 53.5) CONFIRMED
06/08/18  SwissMister CONFIRMED (at 50)
06/13/18  Mr Mark (at 54) CONFIRMED
06/15/18  DavisGang90 (at 49) CONFIRMED
06/25/18  MaybeBabyMustache (at 42) TBD, working thru options
06/29/18  Acastus (at 56) CONFIRMED
06/29/18  aperture (at 56) CONFIRMED
06/30/18  HenryDavid CONFIRMED
07/06/18  Honeyfill  (at 60)  CONFIRMED
07/09/18  CHF (at 51) CONFIRMED
08/03/18  mjr (at 52) CONFIRMED
08/03/18  Mogadishu (at 40) CONFIRMED
08/09/18  cap396 (at 46) CONFIRMED
08/10/18  FernFree (at 49) CONFIRMED
08/17/18  sui generis (at 41) CONFIRMED
08/24/18  sol (at 41) CONFIRMED
08/31/18  RiverTop (at 55) CONFIRMED
08/31/18  JerseyGrrrl
09/01/18  Vegasgirl (at 49) CONFIRMED
09/21/18  Ottawa
09/30/18  SwissMiss (at 50)
10/05/18  JumboShrimp
10/25/18  PhilB (at 52)
10/31/18  Mr Griz
10/31/18  TartanTallulah
10/??/18  Fire1018
10/??/18  Happy
10/??/18  Irishtache
11/??/18  DeSteeg
11/??/18  Kris
12/21/18  LateStarter
12/21/18  RunningWithScissors
12/31/18  DavidAnnArbor (at 53) (Won't renew my office lease)
12/??/18  EnjoyIt  Parttime.
12/??/18  yoda34

Date not confirmed
??/??/18  Blindsquirrel
??/??/18  FLStache
??/??/18  MiserlyMiser
??/??/18  pecunia
??/??/18  Badblackgirl
??/??/18  PKate and DH
??/??/18  Calvin
??/??/18  step_away
??/??/18  Agent Rosenflower
??/??/18  dbtx
??/??/18  Omalley
??/??/18  AussieGirl
??/??/18  BackAndForth
??/??/18  cerat0n1a
??/??/18  Fresh Bread
??/??/18  SugarMountain In a holding pattern, debating between OMM/OMY.

MIA
??/??/18  randomgiraffe (Inactive since 2/2017)
??/??/18  Minnesota_mom (Inactive since 2/2017)
??/??/18  HappyMargo (Inactive since 6/2017)
??/??/18  NorCalistache (Inactive since 8/2017)
??/??/18  Alim Nassor (Cannot find in members list)
??/??/18  SnidelyWhiplashStache (Cannot find in members list)
??/??/18  Sofa King (Cannot find in members list)
??/??/18  Michread (Cannot find in members list)

OMY/2MY/3MY etc.
03/??/19  ChasesFish  OMY
??/??/19  RetireAbroadAt35  05/??/18, now OMY.
??/??/20  Gooki   2MY or 3MY

Rivertop

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 14
  • Age: 56
  • Location: North Texas
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1956 on: August 31, 2018, 08:51:20 AM »
Today's my day! It's weird, not gonna lie. I work from home, so I'm just sitting here as normal, listening to CNBC, finishing up my last few tasks. And hoping someone emails or calls, needing something. I really should be glad they are confident and can move forward without me. Every so often, I'm going to get up and do the happy dance today!

Greenback Reproduction Specialist

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 432
  • Location: Running barefoot thru Idaho mountains
    • Black Sheep With Feet
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1957 on: August 31, 2018, 09:08:57 AM »
Wow!!! I cant believe how many are in the 2018 class!!

Our 2021 class is like... 10 people : )

Everyone can throw their caps in the air and cheer,

Congrats to everyone!!! (que the song "forever young")

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7506
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1958 on: August 31, 2018, 09:32:12 AM »
Wow!!! I cant believe how many are in the 2018 class!!

It's been one of the best decades for market returns in US history.  It's never been easier to retire early than it is right now, and this website and forum have been in operation for almost all of that period.  Frankly I'm kind of shocked this thread doesn't have like 30% of the forum members retiring this year, because anyone who got on board when MMM launched is probably ready to go by now.

Trifele

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1611
  • Location: US
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1959 on: August 31, 2018, 09:39:05 AM »
Wow!!! I cant believe how many are in the 2018 class!!

It's been one of the best decades for market returns in US history.  It's never been easier to retire early than it is right now, and this website and forum have been in operation for almost all of that period.  Frankly I'm kind of shocked this thread doesn't have like 30% of the forum members retiring this year, because anyone who got on board when MMM launched is probably ready to go by now.

2019 Cohort member here.  We have lost 6 people to the 2018 group so far, and there will probably be more.  Here's to OLY!

PhilB

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 483
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1960 on: August 31, 2018, 09:56:16 AM »
Today's my day! It's weird, not gonna lie. I work from home, so I'm just sitting here as normal, listening to CNBC, finishing up my last few tasks. And hoping someone emails or calls, needing something. I really should be glad they are confident and can move forward without me. Every so often, I'm going to get up and do the happy dance today!
The RiverTOP IS IN!

Congratulations!

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1817
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1961 on: August 31, 2018, 10:13:43 AM »
Wow!!! I cant believe how many are in the 2018 class!!

It's been one of the best decades for market returns in US history.  It's never been easier to retire early than it is right now, and this website and forum have been in operation for almost all of that period.  Frankly I'm kind of shocked this thread doesn't have like 30% of the forum members retiring this year, because anyone who got on board when MMM launched is probably ready to go by now.

I was thinking the same thing.  If you've been on this path for 2 years or more, you've seen nothing but steady phenomenal returns and a growing 'stache (including home values).  Especially if you are in the early growth period, you've probably doubled your NW and then some.  Very few seem to question the 4% rule, other than it being too conservative when returns are so good, the good life is cheap, and side hustles are easy to come by.

Other than healthcare, ER seems like a lay-up.  I would venture that at least 30% of active forum members are some level of FI or close.  The only thing keeping me from setting an ER date is OMY on a project overseas.  I would prefer to be doing this than being ER and doing my own thing (like, I'm getting paid to learn French and fly business class, how cool is that?), but even I have to admit that, nearing 45, I'm beginning to worry that I'm giving away too much to Big Oil Corp.  I'd really like to have a decade of self-directed world travel before I get too much older.

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6757
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1962 on: August 31, 2018, 10:45:11 AM »
If I had found MMM 10yrs ago I'd be FIREd now. I only saw the light at the end of the tunnel in late 2014 and realized it was freedom not a train! I should be FIREd by the end of 2019 or 2020 sometime. 5-6 years isn't too bad. Luckily my past-self didn't do anything stupid to fuck up my future self's retirement beyond not saving enough.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2018, 12:08:59 PM by Retire-Canada »

Vegasgirl

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 150
  • Location: Washington DC Metro
  • Never have a battle of wits with an unarmed person
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1963 on: August 31, 2018, 10:46:25 AM »
Well, It's REALLY official for me now.  Went into the office at 930 this morning (after being on vacation since July 11) turned in my laptop, badge and keys.  There were a few questions, hugs and farewell wishes but I'm now home and officially done !!!  Honestly, if it were not for MMM and all the wisdom on this forum this would not have happened.  I am eternally grateful.  Now on to the second chapter !!!

Greenback Reproduction Specialist

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 432
  • Location: Running barefoot thru Idaho mountains
    • Black Sheep With Feet
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1964 on: August 31, 2018, 10:51:59 AM »
one of the best decades for market returns in US history.  It's never been easier to retire early than it is right now, and this website and forum have been in operation for almost all of that period.  Frankly I'm kind of shocked this thread doesn't have like 30% of the forum members retiring this year, because anyone who got on board when MMM launched is probably ready to go by now.

Good points

Lews Therin

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2204
  • Age: 28
  • Location: Ottawa
  • Used to be Canadian Ben
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1965 on: August 31, 2018, 11:43:16 AM »
I saw it two years ago, and am in 2019. All depends on when we found the blog, and the lifestyle/income before.

SugarMountain

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 579
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1966 on: August 31, 2018, 12:12:05 PM »
Wow!!! I cant believe how many are in the 2018 class!!

It's been one of the best decades for market returns in US history.  It's never been easier to retire early than it is right now, and this website and forum have been in operation for almost all of that period.  Frankly I'm kind of shocked this thread doesn't have like 30% of the forum members retiring this year, because anyone who got on board when MMM launched is probably ready to go by now.

Counter intuitively, it may be the worst possible time to retire if those gains are ephemeral.  (Yes, 4% SWR has a great track record, but the markets have extremely high valuations by pretty much any measure. Cape-Shiller for example has only been this high once before, right before the market tumbled.  I do wonder how an FIRE folks who retired in say March of '99 are doing 19 years in.)

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1817
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1967 on: August 31, 2018, 01:09:28 PM »
Yeah, yeah SugarMountain, I thought the same thing in 2011, and in 2013, and in 2015... ;)  Even MMM published that the market was due for a fall in June 2017 and May 2013...

Quote
Investments: Everyone is speculating vigorously on stocks, and the index is at a high valuation. Youíll want to continue your regular investing program, but your asset allocation rules will automatically make you buy fewer stocks and more bonds. And especially look into alternatives like paying off your mortgage early Ė this is the time to get out of debt, because the getting is easy.
 

I liked what Buffett had to say this week, that US company valuations are high but the alternative of investing in bonds at 3% for 30 years or real estate in general isn't a favorable alternative.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2018, 01:16:52 PM by EscapeVelocity2020 »

SugarMountain

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 579
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1968 on: August 31, 2018, 03:40:03 PM »
Yeah, yeah SugarMountain, I thought the same thing in 2011, and in 2013, and in 2015... ;)  Even MMM published that the market was due for a fall in June 2017 and May 2013...

Quote
Investments: Everyone is speculating vigorously on stocks, and the index is at a high valuation. Youíll want to continue your regular investing program, but your asset allocation rules will automatically make you buy fewer stocks and more bonds. And especially look into alternatives like paying off your mortgage early Ė this is the time to get out of debt, because the getting is easy.
 

I liked what Buffett had to say this week, that US company valuations are high but the alternative of investing in bonds at 3% for 30 years or real estate in general isn't a favorable alternative.

And you might not have been wrong in 2011, 2013, or 2015.  We'll know in 20 years.

And I get what Buffett is saying.  It's kind of like "Democracy is a terrible way to run a country.  But, it's better than all of the alternatives." I'm not saying that stocks aren't the way to go.  I think my current allocation is like 70% stocks, 10% bonds, 10% cash (sold a bunch of options last month, need to reinvest them), 10% real estate. 

My point is simply that if with this recent run up in the market if you've suddenly hit the magic 4%, I'm not completely convinced it's real.  In 1999, the S&P hit like 1515.  It took until 2013 for it to get back there.  That's 14 years with the only return being from dividends and many years where you had negative returns so if you're selling it's killing your portfolio. 

If you look at cape-shiller and cfiresim together, you can see where say a 40 year retirement failed using straight 4% inflation adjusted WR  several times.  The worst times to retire were 1929 (made it, barely), 1937 (made it barely), 1966 (failed after 23 years), 1965 (failed after 25 years), etc.  Don't know about 1999 yet or today obviously.

C/S
1929 - 32.4.  All time high until 1999 (and again now).
1937 - 22.  Highest peak between 1929 crash and the 60s.
1966 - 24.  Highest peak between 1929 and 1999.
1965 - 22.3. Just under the 1966 peak.

We're currently over 33, 2nd highest ever to 1999.

Now, I don't think Cape Shiller is the be-all-end-all of market valuation measures, and I also think accounting changes in the 2000s to reporting earnings, and the shift from dividends to stock buybacks have an effect.  But there is a correlation between high C/S valuation and risk of retirement failure. So, I would be very leery of doing a long RE right at 4% without plans for cutting spending/getting some additional income with today's valuation.

I'm also way more cautious than many on this board and am currently OMMing it even though my WR would be about 3.4%.  But, remember that the Trinity study determined that with a 4% starting withdrawal rate was only 95% successful and I bet every one of the failure cycles started in a year with a cape shiller over 22.




Will

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 759
  • Location: Vancouver, WA
  • What the deuce?!?!?
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1969 on: August 31, 2018, 05:22:37 PM »
I was not aware of this thread.  Feel free to add me to CONFIRMED FIRE as of 6/1/18.  Thanks!

EDIT: I guess I was supposed to say that I was 53 years and almost 5 months old at that point.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2018, 05:36:39 PM by Will »

chasesfish

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2545
  • Age: 36
  • Location: Texas
    • Years in the making, I created a journal!
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1970 on: August 31, 2018, 05:29:26 PM »
Congrats @Will

@SugarMountain One reminder, we don't get a *real* cape ratio until after 2019.  There are tons of paper losses incurred in the financial sector that were realized outside the public markets.  Its driving it down.  Valuations are also high on a cape basis due to tax changes.

I think there may very well be a mild recession on the horizon, but I think the Cape is a terrible indicator right now with two massive issues baked into its numbers.

SwordGuy

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4475
  • Location: Fayetteville, NC
    • Flipping Fayetteville
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1971 on: August 31, 2018, 05:42:39 PM »

In 1999, the S&P hit like 1515.  It took until 2013 for it to get back there.  That's 14 years with the only return being from dividends and many years where you had negative returns so if you're selling it's killing your portfolio. 


This data contradicts what you say by 6 years, i.e., 2007:

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices/table/by-month



PhilB

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 483
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1972 on: August 31, 2018, 06:16:20 PM »

In 1999, the S&P hit like 1515.  It took until 2013 for it to get back there.  That's 14 years with the only return being from dividends and many years where you had negative returns so if you're selling it's killing your portfolio. 


This data contradicts what you say by 6 years, i.e., 2007:

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices/table/by-month
I can't believe that anyone old enough to remember the dot com bubble would seriously say that today's valuations are anything like what we saw then.  Yes we've had an extended bull run, but nothing like the insane run up in values that occurred then or that preceded the Japanese meltdown.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7506
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1973 on: August 31, 2018, 06:46:02 PM »
Yes we've had an extended bull run, but nothing like the insane run up in values that occurred then or that preceded the Japanese meltdown.

This bull isn't over yet.  We still have time to get ridiculous.

This HAS been a very long run, though.  Sustained growth, without a single negative year or even a legit recession in a decade.  A couple of minor corrections here and there, that were all quickly buried by subsequent growth.  Does anyone remember back to February of this year, or January of 2016, as times of market turmoil when everyone was proclaiming the "end" of the bull?

I agree that the dotcom bubble, and the even more severe Japanese bubble, were preceded by truly incredible runs that make our past ten years look pretty tame by comparison.  Our best year over the past decade was the 32% in 2013, but the Japanese market averaged that much every year for like six years in a row before peaking. 

cap396

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 41
  • Age: 46
  • Location: FIREd and Traveling the World
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1974 on: August 31, 2018, 07:00:33 PM »
Congratulations Rivertop and Vegasgirl!!!

markbike528CBX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 836
  • Location: the Everbrown part of the Evergreen State (WA)
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1975 on: August 31, 2018, 07:12:30 PM »
I was not aware of this thread.  Feel free to add me to CONFIRMED FIRE as of 6/1/18.  Thanks!

EDIT: I guess I was supposed to say that I was 53 years and almost 5 months old at that point.

My twin!  With my pic as the avatar!

frugalecon

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 482
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1976 on: August 31, 2018, 08:00:55 PM »
Yes we've had an extended bull run, but nothing like the insane run up in values that occurred then or that preceded the Japanese meltdown.

This bull isn't over yet.  We still have time to get ridiculous.

This HAS been a very long run, though.  Sustained growth, without a single negative year or even a legit recession in a decade.  A couple of minor corrections here and there, that were all quickly buried by subsequent growth.  Does anyone remember back to February of this year, or January of 2016, as times of market turmoil when everyone was proclaiming the "end" of the bull?

I agree that the dotcom bubble, and the even more severe Japanese bubble, were preceded by truly incredible runs that make our past ten years look pretty tame by comparison.  Our best year over the past decade was the 32% in 2013, but the Japanese market averaged that much every year for like six years in a row before peaking.

Hey Sol, glad to see you havenít retired from posting...Iím still hoping for a post about what your last month or so of work was like, and how people seemed to be dealing. Not sure how transferable the experience is to other Federal workplaces, but it might be illuminating...

SugarMountain

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 579
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1977 on: August 31, 2018, 08:54:05 PM »

In 1999, the S&P hit like 1515.  It took until 2013 for it to get back there.  That's 14 years with the only return being from dividends and many years where you had negative returns so if you're selling it's killing your portfolio. 



This data contradicts what you say by 6 years, i.e., 2007:

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices/table/by-month

Yes, it touched on 1500 for a couple of months and then went back below where it was for another 6 years.  My point is the same, basically 0 return aside from dividends from 1999 to 2013.

SugarMountain

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 579
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1978 on: August 31, 2018, 08:58:13 PM »
Congrats @Will

@SugarMountain One reminder, we don't get a *real* cape ratio until after 2019.  There are tons of paper losses incurred in the financial sector that were realized outside the public markets.  Its driving it down.  Valuations are also high on a cape basis due to tax changes.

I've heard that a lot but I'm not sure how accurate it is.  This cool tool allows you to do an 8 or 9 year cape which drops off the worst of the "great recession".  Doesn't look much better. https://dqydj.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio-calculator/

Quote
I think there may very well be a mild recession on the horizon, but I think the Cape is a terrible indicator right now with two massive issues baked into its numbers.

Yes, the tax situation definitely has an impact, and as I noted the changes to how earnings are are reported over the years.

PhilB

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 483
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1979 on: September 01, 2018, 05:34:29 AM »

In 1999, the S&P hit like 1515.  It took until 2013 for it to get back there.  That's 14 years with the only return being from dividends and many years where you had negative returns so if you're selling it's killing your portfolio. 



This data contradicts what you say by 6 years, i.e., 2007:

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices/table/by-month

Yes, it touched on 1500 for a couple of months and then went back below where it was for another 6 years.  My point is the same, basically 0 return aside from dividends from 1999 to 2013.
But the key issue there is that it is that 1999 peak which was the massive outlier from the general trend.  If we had started from vaguely 'normal' valuations, and then had a 14 year trough, then that would indeed be frightening.  The real story of those numbers is quite different though.  Much more a case of we had an insane bubble that pushed stock prices to a level they wouldn't normally have been expected to reach for more than a decade.

Like many people I feel somewhat twitchy that stocks may currently be overvalued, but nothing at all like the way they were in 1999 when you could double your stock price in days just by adding '.com' to your name.

SugarMountain

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 579
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1980 on: September 01, 2018, 11:16:43 AM »

In 1999, the S&P hit like 1515.  It took until 2013 for it to get back there.  That's 14 years with the only return being from dividends and many years where you had negative returns so if you're selling it's killing your portfolio. 



This data contradicts what you say by 6 years, i.e., 2007:

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices/table/by-month

Yes, it touched on 1500 for a couple of months and then went back below where it was for another 6 years.  My point is the same, basically 0 return aside from dividends from 1999 to 2013.
But the key issue there is that it is that 1999 peak which was the massive outlier from the general trend.  If we had started from vaguely 'normal' valuations, and then had a 14 year trough, then that would indeed be frightening.  The real story of those numbers is quite different though.  Much more a case of we had an insane bubble that pushed stock prices to a level they wouldn't normally have been expected to reach for more than a decade.

Like many people I feel somewhat twitchy that stocks may currently be overvalued, but nothing at all like the way they were in 1999 when you could double your stock price in days just by adding '.com' to your name.

Sure, we're not in the same situation as 1999.  But might we be the same as the mid 60s? 1937?  Not sure.

My point is simply, that I'd rather hit my 4% when the stock market is not hitting super high valuations.

SugarMountain

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 579
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1981 on: September 02, 2018, 08:56:58 AM »
Congrats @Will

@SugarMountain One reminder, we don't get a *real* cape ratio until after 2019.  There are tons of paper losses incurred in the financial sector that were realized outside the public markets.  Its driving it down.  Valuations are also high on a cape basis due to tax changes.

I think there may very well be a mild recession on the horizon, but I think the Cape is a terrible indicator right now with two massive issues baked into its numbers.

So I took a look at where things will be when 2008 drops off (S&P had earnings of 17.84) and replaced it with estimates for 2018.  Assuming the price stays the same, it does bring Cape-Shiller down to ~29 from 33.  Still historically high, but not as bad as it is currently.

davisgang90

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1146
  • Location: Roanoke, VA
    • Photography by Rich Davis
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1982 on: September 02, 2018, 01:21:56 PM »
I've got a side-hustle in the making.  Going to work on my CFI (Certified Flight Instructor) qualification and then work for the same school as a CFI.  Pay isn't much, but once I'm a CFI, I get paid to fly.

Looks like I'll be postponing growing up a few more years.

EnjoyIt

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1170
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1983 on: September 02, 2018, 06:37:46 PM »

Sure, we're not in the same situation as 1999.  But might we be the same as the mid 60s? 1937?  Not sure.

My point is simply, that I'd rather hit my 4% when the stock market is not hitting super high valuations.

I would rather FIRE at 4% when valuations are average but I will not delay my plan but rather be willing to adjust spending if/when that recession hits.

PhilB

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 483
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1984 on: September 03, 2018, 12:39:23 AM »

Sure, we're not in the same situation as 1999.  But might we be the same as the mid 60s? 1937?  Not sure.

My point is simply, that I'd rather hit my 4% when the stock market is not hitting super high valuations.

I would rather FIRE at 4% when valuations are average but I will not delay my plan but rather be willing to adjust spending if/when that recession hits.
Snap.  There can't be any question that retiring at a top increases the (very slim) chances of failure if you are mindlessly following a 4%+ inflation strategy.   Question is do you a) not retire, b)retire on a lower %, c)retire as planned but ready to take evasive action?  I plump for c and have thoroughly stress-tested my plans accordingly.

happy

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4151
  • Location: NSW Australia
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1985 on: September 03, 2018, 04:13:36 AM »
Another margin of safety can be gained by diversifying income streams, rather than just relying on stocks. For example my retirement incomes will be 25% lifelong govt pension indexed to CPI, 25% rent, 50% from superannuation which is essentially stocks. I will also have a large amount in home equity able to be sold off and tapped when I am no longer able/wishing to live at my current home. I would be very worried about income from stocks alone. Nords also recommends considering purchasing an annuity for some  income if one doesn't have a safe govt pension.


CowboyAndIndian

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1277
  • Location: NJ, USA
    • KOWines: Deep discount wine/spirits store.
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1986 on: September 03, 2018, 06:33:34 AM »
I've got a side-hustle in the making.  Going to work on my CFI (Certified Flight Instructor) qualification and then work for the same school as a CFI.  Pay isn't much, but once I'm a CFI, I get paid to fly.

Looks like I'll be postponing growing up a few more years.

Lucky you!

davisgang90, wish you were closer. I am thinking of learning flying ...

JerseyGrrrl

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 11
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1987 on: September 03, 2018, 08:06:04 AM »
Just a quick drop in on this thread to note that my FIRE date has been pushed back to end of September. I am counting down the days. With today as a holiday in the US, and two vacation days later this week, only 17 work days to go.

There is a chance I could go in a few days after that to help train my replacement. I'm trying to decide if I will be flexible or stick to the end date. Either way, I am leaving town end of October, so it can't go past that.

Congrats to all who have fired already this year!!

CowboyAndIndian

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1277
  • Location: NJ, USA
    • KOWines: Deep discount wine/spirits store.
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1988 on: September 03, 2018, 09:09:26 AM »
Moved JerseyGrrrl to end of September.


01/01/18  CowboyAndIndian (at 59) CONFIRMED
01/04/18  Gimesalot (at 33) CONFIRMED
01/06/18  Monkey Uncle (at 49) CONFIRMED
01/26/18  PizzaSteve (at 53) CONFIRMED
01/31/18  patches (at 33) CONFIRMED
01/31/18  Wintergreen78 CONFIRMED
01/31/18  MomCPA  CONFIRMED
02/01/18  DTaggart (at 40) CONFIRMED
02/05/18  Mrbeardedbigbucks CONFIRMED
02/09/18  JLTinVA (at 42) CONFIRMED
02/14/18  Gimesalot DH (at 40) CONFIRMED
02/28/18  Caoineag (at 36) CONFIRMED
03/01/18  Clean Shaven (at 45) CONFIRMED Part Time
03/02/18  brooklynguy (at 37) CONFIRMED
03/07/18  Aegishjalmur (at 35) CONFIRMED
03/16/18  Cherry Lane (at 43) CONFIRMED
03/27/18  Mrs. Honeyfill CONFIRMED
03/28/18  Target2018 CONFIRMED
03/28/18  homestead neohio (at 39) CONFIRMED
03/30/18  Moxie (at 58) CONFIRMED
03/31/18  msilenus (at 38) CONFIRMED
04/01/18  Mother Fussbudget (at 56) CONFIRMED
04/03/18  lostformars (at 38) CONFIRMED
04/04/18  OzBeach (at 54) CONFIRMED
04/20/18  moneytaichi CONFIRMED
04/25/18  Modernaimend DH (at 39) CONFIRMED
04/25/18  ZiziPB (at 50) CONFIRMED
04/26/18  NinetyFour (at 56) CONFIRMED
04/26/18  SwordGuy (at 60) CONFIRMED
04/27/18  poppydog and DW CONFIRMED
04/27/18  andkar (at 41) CONFIRMED
05/01/18  wordnerd and DH (at 30 and 36) CONFIRMED
05/03/18  Modernaimend (at 35) CONFIRMED
05/08/18  SwordGuy DW (SwordGuy isn't saying.   He wants to live.) CONFIRMED
05/11/18  Desert (at 52) CONFIRMED
05/25/18  CheapskateWife (at 42) and CheapskateHubs (at 49) CONFIRMED
05/25/18  Gyosho (at 55) CONFIRMED
06/01/18  CodeZed (at 40) CONFIRMED
06/01/18  Markbike528CBX (at 53.5) CONFIRMED
06/08/18  SwissMister CONFIRMED (at 50)
06/13/18  Mr Mark (at 54) CONFIRMED
06/15/18  DavisGang90 (at 49) CONFIRMED
06/29/18  Acastus (at 56) CONFIRMED
06/29/18  aperture (at 56) CONFIRMED
06/30/18  HenryDavid CONFIRMED
07/06/18  Honeyfill  (at 60)  CONFIRMED
07/09/18  CHF (at 51) CONFIRMED
08/03/18  mjr (at 52) CONFIRMED
08/03/18  Mogadishu (at 40) CONFIRMED
08/09/18  cap396 (at 46) CONFIRMED
08/10/18  FernFree (at 49) CONFIRMED
08/17/18  sui generis (at 41) CONFIRMED
08/24/18  sol (at 41) CONFIRMED
08/31/18  RiverTop (at 55) CONFIRMED
09/01/18  Vegasgirl (at 49) CONFIRMED
09/21/18  Ottawa
09/30/18  SwissMiss (at 50)
09/30/18  JerseyGrrrl
10/05/18  JumboShrimp
10/25/18  PhilB (at 52)
10/31/18  Mr Griz
10/31/18  TartanTallulah
10/??/18  Fire1018
10/??/18  Happy
10/??/18  Irishtache
11/??/18  DeSteeg
11/??/18  Kris
12/21/18  LateStarter
12/21/18  RunningWithScissors
12/31/18  DavidAnnArbor (at 53) (Won't renew my office lease)
12/??/18  EnjoyIt  Parttime.
12/??/18  yoda34

Date not confirmed
??/??/18  Blindsquirrel
??/??/18  FLStache
??/??/18  MiserlyMiser
??/??/18  pecunia
??/??/18  Badblackgirl
??/??/18  PKate and DH
??/??/18  Calvin
??/??/18  step_away
??/??/18  Agent Rosenflower
??/??/18  dbtx
??/??/18  Omalley
??/??/18  AussieGirl
??/??/18  BackAndForth
??/??/18  cerat0n1a
??/??/18  Fresh Bread
??/??/18  SugarMountain In a holding pattern, debating between OMM/OMY.
??/??/18  MaybeBabyMustache (at 42) TBD, working thru options

MIA
??/??/18  randomgiraffe (Inactive since 2/2017)
??/??/18  Minnesota_mom (Inactive since 2/2017)
??/??/18  HappyMargo (Inactive since 6/2017)
??/??/18  NorCalistache (Inactive since 8/2017)
??/??/18  Alim Nassor (Cannot find in members list)
??/??/18  SnidelyWhiplashStache (Cannot find in members list)
??/??/18  Sofa King (Cannot find in members list)
??/??/18  Michread (Cannot find in members list)

OMY/2MY/3MY etc.
03/??/19  ChasesFish  OMY
??/??/19  RetireAbroadAt35  05/??/18, now OMY.
??/??/20  Gooki   2MY or 3MY

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1806
  • Age: 53
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1989 on: September 03, 2018, 09:22:28 AM »
Hey brooklynguy whatever happened to you ?

brooklynguy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2204
  • Age: 38
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1990 on: September 03, 2018, 09:44:02 AM »
Hey brooklynguy whatever happened to you ?

Iím alive and well but now that Iím no longer chained to a desk in search of distractions I have become an occasional lurker instead of an active participant.  I spent most of the summer on a road trip around the country but now that Iím back home Iíve been checking in on the forum more frequently, though I doubt Iíll ever spend as much time here as I did in my working days.

Retirement is grand.  Congrats to all who have recently taken the plunge.

Will

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 759
  • Location: Vancouver, WA
  • What the deuce?!?!?
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1991 on: September 03, 2018, 10:40:25 AM »
Moved JerseyGrrrl to end of September.



Will you add me someday?

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1806
  • Age: 53
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1992 on: September 03, 2018, 11:21:05 AM »
Will you can also just copy, paste, edit and thereby  you can be added.

SugarMountain

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 579
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1993 on: September 03, 2018, 11:44:17 AM »

Sure, we're not in the same situation as 1999.  But might we be the same as the mid 60s? 1937?  Not sure.

My point is simply, that I'd rather hit my 4% when the stock market is not hitting super high valuations.

I would rather FIRE at 4% when valuations are average but I will not delay my plan but rather be willing to adjust spending if/when that recession hits.
Snap.  There can't be any question that retiring at a top increases the (very slim) chances of failure if you are mindlessly following a 4%+ inflation strategy.   Question is do you a) not retire, b)retire on a lower %, c)retire as planned but ready to take evasive action?  I plump for c and have thoroughly stress-tested my plans accordingly.

Exactly. Trinity study basically said for a 30 year retirement, a 4% starting withdrawal rate indexed to inflation had a 95% success rate.  Looking at the last 80 years, it's fairly easy to figure out where the 4 failure years were.  All had high CAPEs.  Doesn't mean that 4% won't work today, but I think someone who retires today will need to be more diligent than other periods where CAPE was in the teens. 

I'm planning on all 3.  I haven't yet retired, although I tried to a couple of weeks ago and have gotten talked into staying at least temporarily. We will most likely be retiring on lower than a 4% withdrawal rate. And we will be continuing to look at opportunities to cut spending.  I'd rather not worry about side gigs. 

EnjoyIt

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1170
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1994 on: September 03, 2018, 12:04:56 PM »

Sure, we're not in the same situation as 1999.  But might we be the same as the mid 60s? 1937?  Not sure.

My point is simply, that I'd rather hit my 4% when the stock market is not hitting super high valuations.

I would rather FIRE at 4% when valuations are average but I will not delay my plan but rather be willing to adjust spending if/when that recession hits.
Snap.  There can't be any question that retiring at a top increases the (very slim) chances of failure if you are mindlessly following a 4%+ inflation strategy.   Question is do you a) not retire, b)retire on a lower %, c)retire as planned but ready to take evasive action?  I plump for c and have thoroughly stress-tested my plans accordingly.

Exactly. Trinity study basically said for a 30 year retirement, a 4% starting withdrawal rate indexed to inflation had a 95% success rate.  Looking at the last 80 years, it's fairly easy to figure out where the 4 failure years were.  All had high CAPEs.  Doesn't mean that 4% won't work today, but I think someone who retires today will need to be more diligent than other periods where CAPE was in the teens. 

I'm planning on all 3.  I haven't yet retired, although I tried to a couple of weeks ago and have gotten talked into staying at least temporarily. We will most likely be retiring on lower than a 4% withdrawal rate. And we will be continuing to look at opportunities to cut spending.  I'd rather not worry about side gigs.

PhilB,
Actually we are lucky enough to be able to work as much or as little as we want and still enjoy our work today.  Our plan is going part time when we are close to 4% which is pretty much now and see how part time suits us.  1 year of part time would put us at 4%.  If we hate part time we would FIRE completely.  Otherwise we will continue part time work letting our stache grow indefinitely with the option to quit at any time.  If we did not have that option we would definitely be choosing "C" retiring at 4% and cutting expenses when the market declines which we will likely do anyway just because we are human. 

DreamFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1357
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1995 on: September 03, 2018, 01:22:32 PM »
I'm planning on all 3.  I haven't yet retired, although I tried to a couple of weeks ago and have gotten talked into staying at least temporarily. We will most likely be retiring on lower than a 4% withdrawal rate. And we will be continuing to look at opportunities to cut spending.  I'd rather not worry about side gigs.

There's some discussion of CAPE and 10 year negative returns in this thread.  Interestingly, the periods of ten-year negative growth of a 60/40 portfolio did not start when CAPE was near the high end of the chart, but there's definitely a correlation to CAPE and 10 year growth.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/10-years-of-negative-returns/

There are other metrics that indicate U.S. stocks have high valuations as well.

I'm planning on "C" to FIRE as planned in 2019 and take action as needed.  Over half my budget is discretionary, so there's room to cut back there and still get the bills paid.  Going back to work or side gig is a possibility if I have the urge.  But I've taken "B" by a matter of circumstance.  My stash has grown enough that I could cover my planned FIRE spending with a 3.65% SWR for a semi-fat FIRE that is more than double my expected barebones budget.  And unless I do quite a bit of traveling, I'm more likely to spend even less than a 3.65% WR affords me.  By dropping to a 3% SWR, that would would still give me $20K/yr discretionary as a single person while lightening the load on my stash.  While my planned FIRE budget allows $30K/yr discretionary spending, even $20K/yr is far more than I've spent while working while also consistently saving 70% to 80%+ of my take home pay, so I wouldn't exactly feel deprived with that adjustment.

I also recently moved from 80/40 to 60/40 AA now that I'm well within a year of FIRE since I'll be within 15 years of SS and only need to fully cover expenses from my stash until SS kicks in.  SS alone will cover barebones with plenty to spare, and my SWR% from my stash can then drop to about 1.8% WR to reach $30K/yr in discretionary spending and closer to 1.0% WR to reach $20K/yr discretionary spending (in today's dollars, part of discretionary will be covered by SS, which is why those WR's don't exactly correlate).

ACA is a big wild card, the uncertainty with that was the primary reason I didn't FIRE in the spring of 2018.  The fact that I also got my own office (private, with door) in late 2017 also made my work environment better, so I didn't feel as much of a desire to get out of there this year.  I really stepped up my 457B/401a contributions this year also.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2018, 02:21:59 PM by DreamFIRE »

EnjoyIt

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1170
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1996 on: September 03, 2018, 03:28:57 PM »
I'm planning on all 3.  I haven't yet retired, although I tried to a couple of weeks ago and have gotten talked into staying at least temporarily. We will most likely be retiring on lower than a 4% withdrawal rate. And we will be continuing to look at opportunities to cut spending.  I'd rather not worry about side gigs.

There's some discussion of CAPE and 10 year negative returns in this thread.  Interestingly, the periods of ten-year negative growth of a 60/40 portfolio did not start when CAPE was near the high end of the chart, but there's definitely a correlation to CAPE and 10 year growth.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/10-years-of-negative-returns/

There are other metrics that indicate U.S. stocks have high valuations as well.

I'm planning on "C" to FIRE as planned in 2019 and take action as needed.  Over half my budget is discretionary, so there's room to cut back there and still get the bills paid.  Going back to work or side gig is a possibility if I have the urge.  But I've taken "B" by a matter of circumstance.  My stash has grown enough that I could cover my planned FIRE spending with a 3.65% SWR for a semi-fat FIRE that is more than double my expected barebones budget.  And unless I do quite a bit of traveling, I'm more likely to spend even less than a 3.65% WR affords me.  By dropping to a 3% SWR, that would would still give me $20K/yr discretionary as a single person while lightening the load on my stash.  While my planned FIRE budget allows $30K/yr discretionary spending, even $20K/yr is far more than I've spent while working while also consistently saving 70% to 80%+ of my take home pay, so I wouldn't exactly feel deprived with that adjustment.

I also recently moved from 80/40 to 60/40 AA now that I'm well within a year of FIRE since I'll be within 15 years of SS and only need to fully cover expenses from my stash until SS kicks in.  SS alone will cover barebones with plenty to spare, and my SWR% from my stash can then drop to about 1.8% WR to reach $30K/yr in discretionary spending and closer to 1.0% WR to reach $20K/yr discretionary spending (in today's dollars, part of discretionary will be covered by SS, which is why those WR's don't exactly correlate).

ACA is a big wild card, the uncertainty with that was the primary reason I didn't FIRE in the spring of 2018.  The fact that I also got my own office (private, with door) in late 2017 also made my work environment better, so I didn't feel as much of a desire to get out of there this year.  I really stepped up my 457B/401a contributions this year also.

Great plan. It is important to be flexible and have options.

Irishtache

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 149
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1997 on: September 03, 2018, 05:27:00 PM »
Updated my last day at work, 31st October, 2018:


01/01/18  CowboyAndIndian (at 59) CONFIRMED
01/04/18  Gimesalot (at 33) CONFIRMED
01/06/18  Monkey Uncle (at 49) CONFIRMED
01/26/18  PizzaSteve (at 53) CONFIRMED
01/31/18  patches (at 33) CONFIRMED
01/31/18  Wintergreen78 CONFIRMED
01/31/18  MomCPA  CONFIRMED
02/01/18  DTaggart (at 40) CONFIRMED
02/05/18  Mrbeardedbigbucks CONFIRMED
02/09/18  JLTinVA (at 42) CONFIRMED
02/14/18  Gimesalot DH (at 40) CONFIRMED
02/28/18  Caoineag (at 36) CONFIRMED
03/01/18  Clean Shaven (at 45) CONFIRMED Part Time
03/02/18  brooklynguy (at 37) CONFIRMED
03/07/18  Aegishjalmur (at 35) CONFIRMED
03/16/18  Cherry Lane (at 43) CONFIRMED
03/27/18  Mrs. Honeyfill CONFIRMED
03/28/18  Target2018 CONFIRMED
03/28/18  homestead neohio (at 39) CONFIRMED
03/30/18  Moxie (at 58) CONFIRMED
03/31/18  msilenus (at 38) CONFIRMED
04/01/18  Mother Fussbudget (at 56) CONFIRMED
04/03/18  lostformars (at 38) CONFIRMED
04/04/18  OzBeach (at 54) CONFIRMED
04/20/18  moneytaichi CONFIRMED
04/25/18  Modernaimend DH (at 39) CONFIRMED
04/25/18  ZiziPB (at 50) CONFIRMED
04/26/18  NinetyFour (at 56) CONFIRMED
04/26/18  SwordGuy (at 60) CONFIRMED
04/27/18  poppydog and DW CONFIRMED
04/27/18  andkar (at 41) CONFIRMED
05/01/18  wordnerd and DH (at 30 and 36) CONFIRMED
05/03/18  Modernaimend (at 35) CONFIRMED
05/08/18  SwordGuy DW (SwordGuy isn't saying.   He wants to live.) CONFIRMED
05/11/18  Desert (at 52) CONFIRMED
05/25/18  CheapskateWife (at 42) and CheapskateHubs (at 49) CONFIRMED
05/25/18  Gyosho (at 55) CONFIRMED
06/01/18  CodeZed (at 40) CONFIRMED
06/01/18  Markbike528CBX (at 53.5) CONFIRMED
06/08/18  SwissMister CONFIRMED (at 50)
06/13/18  Mr Mark (at 54) CONFIRMED
06/15/18  DavisGang90 (at 49) CONFIRMED
06/29/18  Acastus (at 56) CONFIRMED
06/29/18  aperture (at 56) CONFIRMED
06/30/18  HenryDavid CONFIRMED
07/06/18  Honeyfill  (at 60)  CONFIRMED
07/09/18  CHF (at 51) CONFIRMED
08/03/18  mjr (at 52) CONFIRMED
08/03/18  Mogadishu (at 40) CONFIRMED
08/09/18  cap396 (at 46) CONFIRMED
08/10/18  FernFree (at 49) CONFIRMED
08/17/18  sui generis (at 41) CONFIRMED
08/24/18  sol (at 41) CONFIRMED
08/31/18  RiverTop (at 55) CONFIRMED
09/01/18  Vegasgirl (at 49) CONFIRMED
09/21/18  Ottawa
09/30/18  SwissMiss (at 50)
09/30/18  JerseyGrrrl
10/05/18  JumboShrimp
10/25/18  PhilB (at 52)
10/31/18  Mr Griz
10/31/18  TartanTallulah
10/??/18  Fire1018
10/??/18  Happy
10/31/18  Irishtache
11/??/18  DeSteeg
11/??/18  Kris
12/21/18  LateStarter
12/21/18  RunningWithScissors
12/31/18  DavidAnnArbor (at 53) (Won't renew my office lease)
12/??/18  EnjoyIt  Parttime.
12/??/18  yoda34

Date not confirmed
??/??/18  Blindsquirrel
??/??/18  FLStache
??/??/18  MiserlyMiser
??/??/18  pecunia
??/??/18  Badblackgirl
??/??/18  PKate and DH
??/??/18  Calvin
??/??/18  step_away
??/??/18  Agent Rosenflower
??/??/18  dbtx
??/??/18  Omalley
??/??/18  AussieGirl
??/??/18  BackAndForth
??/??/18  cerat0n1a
??/??/18  Fresh Bread
??/??/18  SugarMountain In a holding pattern, debating between OMM/OMY.
??/??/18  MaybeBabyMustache (at 42) TBD, working thru options

MIA
??/??/18  randomgiraffe (Inactive since 2/2017)
??/??/18  Minnesota_mom (Inactive since 2/2017)
??/??/18  HappyMargo (Inactive since 6/2017)
??/??/18  NorCalistache (Inactive since 8/2017)
??/??/18  Alim Nassor (Cannot find in members list)
??/??/18  SnidelyWhiplashStache (Cannot find in members list)
??/??/18  Sofa King (Cannot find in members list)
??/??/18  Michread (Cannot find in members list)

OMY/2MY/3MY etc.
03/??/19  ChasesFish  OMY
??/??/19  RetireAbroadAt35  05/??/18, now OMY.
??/??/20  Gooki   2MY or 3MY

DreamFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1357
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1998 on: September 03, 2018, 06:46:48 PM »
I'm planning on all 3.  I haven't yet retired, although I tried to a couple of weeks ago and have gotten talked into staying at least temporarily. We will most likely be retiring on lower than a 4% withdrawal rate. And we will be continuing to look at opportunities to cut spending.  I'd rather not worry about side gigs.

There's some discussion of CAPE and 10 year negative returns in this thread.  Interestingly, the periods of ten-year negative growth of a 60/40 portfolio did not start when CAPE was near the high end of the chart, but there's definitely a correlation to CAPE and 10 year growth.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/10-years-of-negative-returns/

There are other metrics that indicate U.S. stocks have high valuations as well.

I'm planning on "C" to FIRE as planned in 2019 and take action as needed.  Over half my budget is discretionary, so there's room to cut back there and still get the bills paid.  Going back to work or side gig is a possibility if I have the urge.  But I've taken "B" by a matter of circumstance.  My stash has grown enough that I could cover my planned FIRE spending with a 3.65% SWR for a semi-fat FIRE that is more than double my expected barebones budget.  And unless I do quite a bit of traveling, I'm more likely to spend even less than a 3.65% WR affords me.  By dropping to a 3% SWR, that would would still give me $20K/yr discretionary as a single person while lightening the load on my stash.  While my planned FIRE budget allows $30K/yr discretionary spending, even $20K/yr is far more than I've spent while working while also consistently saving 70% to 80%+ of my take home pay, so I wouldn't exactly feel deprived with that adjustment.

I also recently moved from 80/40 to 60/40 AA now that I'm well within a year of FIRE since I'll be within 15 years of SS and only need to fully cover expenses from my stash until SS kicks in.  SS alone will cover barebones with plenty to spare, and my SWR% from my stash can then drop to about 1.8% WR to reach $30K/yr in discretionary spending and closer to 1.0% WR to reach $20K/yr discretionary spending (in today's dollars, part of discretionary will be covered by SS, which is why those WR's don't exactly correlate).

ACA is a big wild card, the uncertainty with that was the primary reason I didn't FIRE in the spring of 2018.  The fact that I also got my own office (private, with door) in late 2017 also made my work environment better, so I didn't feel as much of a desire to get out of there this year.  I really stepped up my 457B/401a contributions this year also.

Great plan. It is important to be flexible and have options.

Thanks.  That's for sure!

CowboyAndIndian

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1277
  • Location: NJ, USA
    • KOWines: Deep discount wine/spirits store.
Re: 2018 FIRE cohort
« Reply #1999 on: September 04, 2018, 06:31:38 AM »
@Will added CONFIRMED!!


01/01/18  CowboyAndIndian (at 59) CONFIRMED
01/04/18  Gimesalot (at 33) CONFIRMED
01/06/18  Monkey Uncle (at 49) CONFIRMED
01/26/18  PizzaSteve (at 53) CONFIRMED
01/31/18  patches (at 33) CONFIRMED
01/31/18  Wintergreen78 CONFIRMED
01/31/18  MomCPA  CONFIRMED
02/01/18  DTaggart (at 40) CONFIRMED
02/05/18  Mrbeardedbigbucks CONFIRMED
02/09/18  JLTinVA (at 42) CONFIRMED
02/14/18  Gimesalot DH (at 40) CONFIRMED
02/28/18  Caoineag (at 36) CONFIRMED
03/01/18  Clean Shaven (at 45) CONFIRMED Part Time
03/02/18  brooklynguy (at 37) CONFIRMED
03/07/18  Aegishjalmur (at 35) CONFIRMED
03/16/18  Cherry Lane (at 43) CONFIRMED
03/27/18  Mrs. Honeyfill CONFIRMED
03/28/18  Target2018 CONFIRMED
03/28/18  homestead neohio (at 39) CONFIRMED
03/30/18  Moxie (at 58) CONFIRMED
03/31/18  msilenus (at 38) CONFIRMED
04/01/18  Mother Fussbudget (at 56) CONFIRMED
04/03/18  lostformars (at 38) CONFIRMED
04/04/18  OzBeach (at 54) CONFIRMED
04/20/18  moneytaichi CONFIRMED
04/25/18  Modernaimend DH (at 39) CONFIRMED
04/25/18  ZiziPB (at 50) CONFIRMED
04/26/18  NinetyFour (at 56) CONFIRMED
04/26/18  SwordGuy (at 60) CONFIRMED
04/27/18  poppydog and DW CONFIRMED
04/27/18  andkar (at 41) CONFIRMED
05/01/18  wordnerd and DH (at 30 and 36) CONFIRMED
05/03/18  Modernaimend (at 35) CONFIRMED
05/08/18  SwordGuy DW (SwordGuy isn't saying.   He wants to live.) CONFIRMED
05/11/18  Desert (at 52) CONFIRMED
05/25/18  CheapskateWife (at 42) and CheapskateHubs (at 49) CONFIRMED
05/25/18  Gyosho (at 55) CONFIRMED
06/01/18  CodeZed (at 40) CONFIRMED
06/01/18  Markbike528CBX (at 53.5) CONFIRMED
06/01/18  Will (at 53) CONFIRMED
06/08/18  SwissMister CONFIRMED (at 50)
06/13/18  Mr Mark (at 54) CONFIRMED
06/15/18  DavisGang90 (at 49) CONFIRMED
06/29/18  Acastus (at 56) CONFIRMED
06/29/18  aperture (at 56) CONFIRMED
06/30/18  HenryDavid CONFIRMED
07/06/18  Honeyfill  (at 60)  CONFIRMED
07/09/18  CHF (at 51) CONFIRMED
08/03/18  mjr (at 52) CONFIRMED
08/03/18  Mogadishu (at 40) CONFIRMED
08/09/18  cap396 (at 46) CONFIRMED
08/10/18  FernFree (at 49) CONFIRMED
08/17/18  sui generis (at 41) CONFIRMED
08/24/18  sol (at 41) CONFIRMED
08/31/18  RiverTop (at 55) CONFIRMED
09/01/18  Vegasgirl (at 49) CONFIRMED
09/21/18  Ottawa
09/30/18  SwissMiss (at 50)
09/30/18  JerseyGrrrl
10/05/18  JumboShrimp
10/25/18  PhilB (at 52)
10/31/18  Mr Griz
10/31/18  TartanTallulah
10/??/18  Fire1018
10/??/18  Happy
10/31/18  Irishtache
11/??/18  Kris
12/21/18  LateStarter
12/21/18  RunningWithScissors
12/31/18  DavidAnnArbor (at 53) (Won't renew my office lease)
12/??/18  EnjoyIt  Parttime.
12/??/18  yoda34

Date not confirmed
??/??/18  Blindsquirrel
??/??/18  FLStache
??/??/18  MiserlyMiser
??/??/18  pecunia
??/??/18  Badblackgirl
??/??/18  PKate and DH
??/??/18  Calvin
??/??/18  step_away
??/??/18  Agent Rosenflower
??/??/18  dbtx
??/??/18  Omalley
??/??/18  AussieGirl
??/??/18  BackAndForth
??/??/18  cerat0n1a
??/??/18  Fresh Bread
??/??/18  SugarMountain In a holding pattern, debating between OMM/OMY.
??/??/18  MaybeBabyMustache (at 42) TBD, working thru options

MIA
??/??/18  randomgiraffe (Inactive since 2/2017)
??/??/18  Minnesota_mom (Inactive since 2/2017)
??/??/18  HappyMargo (Inactive since 6/2017)
??/??/18  NorCalistache (Inactive since 8/2017)
??/??/18  DeSteeg (Inactive since 12/2015)
??/??/18  Alim Nassor (Cannot find in members list)
??/??/18  SnidelyWhiplashStache (Cannot find in members list)
??/??/18  Sofa King (Cannot find in members list)
??/??/18  Michread (Cannot find in members list)

OMY/2MY/3MY etc.
03/??/19  ChasesFish  OMY
??/??/19  RetireAbroadAt35  05/??/18, now OMY.
??/??/20  Gooki   2MY or 3MY
« Last Edit: September 04, 2018, 08:27:01 AM by CowboyAndIndian »