Author Topic: FTSE in the future...  (Read 3234 times)

skip207

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FTSE in the future...
« on: September 20, 2017, 07:39:55 AM »
So we are at c.7200 today.

6 months ago we were also at c.7200.

12 months ago we were at c.6800.

So for a bit of fun post your predictions for mid March 2018 and mid September 2018.

They say you cant time the market but we find it very difficult not too so lets see if anyone has a crystal ball!

My own guess:

March - 6900
Sept - 7300

Monkeytennis

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2017, 12:07:13 PM »
I think the main driver of the draw price in the short and medium term will be the value of the pound(£).

I personally donít pick stocks or markets, just use low fee globally diversified tracker funds invested for the next 40-50 years (hopefully) so the price of one stock market in the short term should be of limited interest.

That said, Iíd guess the FTSE and all global markets are probably over valued vs historic measures and weíve not had a global shock for a while, so Iíd guess the ftse will be below where it is now.

frugledoc

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2017, 02:46:56 PM »
Not a prediction but just like to play.

FTSE 100 has a dividend yield of about 4%

Inflation is ~ 3%

So about 5% total return in a year would be 7500 - 7600.

However,  if the pound continues to rally it will be much lower (or much higher if the pound slumps).

All my money is in Vanguard All World so I only have about 5% exposure to the UK.

TartanTallulah

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2017, 01:54:59 PM »
A guessing game! I love guessing games!

March: 7,200
September: 5,600


cerat0n1a

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2017, 01:56:33 AM »
March: 8000
September: 8200

Why anybody would have more than 10-20% of their net worth in the FTSE, I don't know, given that we can buy shares from global stock markets (and have world index trackers in ISA, pension etc.)

If you look at spreadbetting prices, the current end of year FTSE spread is 7190-7280, not much different to today's price.

poppydog

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2017, 05:34:13 PM »
Seriously?  I have absolutely no idea!

skip207

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2018, 06:00:44 AM »
About a week to run to March and today we are still around 7200.  Interesting times!

TartanTallulah

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2018, 07:05:49 AM »
Crikey! I wasn't far off.  Just contemplating whether to sell all my stocks now in case my plausible random number for September also turns out to be close to the mark.

(Like many others here, I've got a global spread of investments and a lazy portfolio, so I'll be sitting firmly on my hands and continuing to drip-feed my ISA and my husband's SIPP.)

skip207

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2018, 07:59:09 AM »
A month to run, and currently at 7590.. been an interesting year will see where everything lands in another 4 weeks!

frugledoc

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2018, 11:03:40 AM »
Not a prediction but just like to play.

FTSE 100 has a dividend yield of about 4%

Inflation is ~ 3%

So about 5% total return in a year would be 7500 - 7600.

However,  if the pound continues to rally it will be much lower (or much higher if the pound slumps).

All my money is in Vanguard All World so I only have about 5% exposure to the UK.

Looks like I can predict the market after all. No more buy and hold for me!

NearlyThere

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2018, 08:54:34 AM »
With all thats happening in the world I've never been more uncertain on buy and hold. Continuing to do so. All in Lifestrategy 100%

PhilB

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2018, 04:08:42 AM »
Looks like we're heading back to 7,200 again!

skip207

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2018, 04:31:03 AM »
Yep looking like things are starting to get a bit iffy.  I expect this will probably come and go over the next few months. 

PhilB

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #13 on: September 07, 2018, 08:17:15 AM »
I've got my final two sizeable (£7.5k) pension contributions going in next week and a month later so quite nice to see a strong pound and the indexes down a bit.

poppydog

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #14 on: September 08, 2018, 05:45:42 AM »
Mrs PD and me retired at the end of April, and by the middle of June I'd transferred our employers DC pension funds into our SIPPs, and completed our investments into a portfolio of income producing Investment Trusts, and moved the SIPPs into drawdown.  The capital value is at the whim of the market now, but hopefully the dividend income will progress more smoothly.

skip207

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2018, 12:40:21 PM »
Close @ 7302... couple of days to run... good luck all :)

never give up

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2018, 01:08:12 PM »
Feel free to PM me this weeks lottery numbers skip207

skip207

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2018, 02:33:08 AM »
Well here we are 12 months later and 7337.

Anyone want to go again?

I suspect retail is going to have a very tough year and maybe we will see another couple of BOE rises.

March 19 - 6700
Sep 19 - 7000


cerat0n1a

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2018, 06:06:47 AM »
March 2019: Pound drops 15% due to Brexit no-deal fears. FTSE up to 8000.

September 2019: Pound worthless having been replaced by a tins of baked beans based barter system. FTSE-100 now based entirely on companies with foreign earnings. FTSE-100 8200.

never give up

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2018, 11:28:23 AM »
March 19 - 6700
Sept 19 - 5904

Stormís coming.

frugledoc

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2018, 05:25:43 AM »
Quote from: never give up link=topic=79265.msg2142997#msg2142997 date=1537464503
Stormís coming.
[/quote

It always is. Stay the course

TartanTallulah

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2018, 09:02:03 AM »
March 19: 6300
Sep 19: 6100


daverobev

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2018, 05:38:26 PM »
If the pound goes down, the FTSE 100 goes up - because most of the earnings are outside the UK anyway. FTSE 250 would be more interesting IMHO.

I dunno about the pound. After yesterday and today I'm a bit more concerned, but I'm reading far too much news at the moment. I reckon they'll muddle something - one way or another. It can't just be 'collapse'...

I'd guess that in March it'll be roughly where it is now. September, well, we're only just out of silly season, so again not much change.

7500 for both.

PhilB

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2018, 05:59:23 AM »
I'm afraid I'm not going to play.  Whilst I don't believe anyone can predict what will happen to the FTSE, I am 100% confident in my ability to jinx it if I do play.

never give up

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #24 on: September 24, 2018, 07:18:41 AM »
That's the main reason I went so low :-)

Richardp10

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #25 on: October 03, 2018, 10:57:29 AM »
Iíll play!

March 19 7500

Sep 19 8500