Author Topic: Driving over the cliff  (Read 1018 times)

ExitViaTheCashRamp

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 74
Driving over the cliff
« on: January 09, 2019, 11:11:55 AM »
So it seems we are driving ever closer to the Brexit cliff. Regardless of your viewpoint on if this is a good idea or not - should we go over I think we are in for a fairly seriously bumpy time financially speaking. Even if you are a keen brexiteer, it doesn't really matter - only what the market thinks and how well UK businesses cope and it seems very unlikely to me that the market will continue to accept a £1.27 ish for a $1 after a no deal exit for the short to medium term at least.

 Anyone planning to switch their £ for $ or gold for the short term ? It's something I have been considering for a while, was wondering if I am alone in this.

(please don't see this as a call to arms of brexit vs remain, there are tons of forums for that fight -- this is purely about what YOU plan to do from a financial perspective).

never give up

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1316
  • Location: UK
Re: Driving over the cliff
« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2019, 11:36:07 AM »
Being a passive investor I think there is a lot of money to be lost trading in currencies. I canít time the market in any aspect whatsoever. I havenít got a clue. Iím not planning on living anywhere else so Iíll just keep investing in global trackers as normal.

frugledoc

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 580
Re: Driving over the cliff
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2019, 01:44:30 PM »
The currency markets are extremely efficient so I wouldnít recommend trying to outsmart them.

If you are invested in global equities you are well diversified and a drop in the value of the pound would likely benefit your portfolio.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2019, 03:36:39 PM by frugledoc »

Zola.

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 369
  • Location: UK
  • Let's do this.
Re: Driving over the cliff
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2019, 02:03:40 PM »
I still think the whole thing is gonna be cancelled

UK Dancer

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 83
  • Location: Sheffield, UK
Re: Driving over the cliff
« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2019, 01:04:41 AM »
I still think the whole thing is gonna be cancelled

I still HOPE the whole thing is gonna be cancelled...

Distant dreamer

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 160
  • Location: Sunny Scotland
Re: Driving over the cliff
« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2019, 09:38:18 AM »
I still think the whole thing is gonna be cancelled

I still HOPE the whole thing is gonna be cancelled...

+ 1.

SpreadsheetMan

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 173
Re: Driving over the cliff
« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2019, 09:51:34 AM »
I discussed it with my IFA last summer to see if there was anything to be gained by shifting investment proportions etc. His take was given a globally-diversified portfolio (as I have) then the answer is no, that is the best place to be.

Richardp10

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 14
Re: Driving over the cliff
« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2019, 03:22:32 AM »
This is a timing the market question.  If you have spotted that currency may fluctuate then surely the experts who trade in currency all day will have too? Therefore the likelihood is the uncertainty is priced into the current rate.

On the pound versus the dollar there is also lots of uncertainty and instability in America right now.

Itís possible that all the scaremongering by politicians (who are mostly not financial experts) is driving the pound down right now.

Zola.

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 369
  • Location: UK
  • Let's do this.

Boganvillia

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 130
  • Location: New Zealand
Re: Driving over the cliff
« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2019, 12:14:34 AM »
Are any of you Mustachians in the UK laying in stores of extra goods and medicines?

https://brexitprepping.com

SpreadsheetMan

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 173
Re: Driving over the cliff
« Reply #10 on: January 26, 2019, 01:55:45 AM »
Are any of you Mustachians in the UK laying in stores of extra goods and medicines?

https://brexitprepping.com
No, not extra. I'll just ensure that one of our periodic low points in food stocks does not occur a week before. There is bound to be some panic buying with all the media hysteria, so just avoiding that circus by keeping normal stock levels up seems prudent to me.

Actually, forcing suppliers to have a bit more slack in their just-in-time delivery systems could be a good thing for adding resilience against other disruptions like weather events etc. (I'm not saying that is a good reason for brexit though!)

bill1827

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 2
Re: Driving over the cliff
« Reply #11 on: January 26, 2019, 03:09:22 AM »
Of course not. If there's a shortage it will be because people respond to alarmist media panics and over buy. It's happened before with artificially created shortages.

As we have well stocked cupboards anyway, and healthy people can survive for several weeks without food there is no reason to panic buy.

ExitViaTheCashRamp

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 74
Re: Driving over the cliff
« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2019, 04:17:02 AM »
We have. I consider the risk to be extremely low that the supermarkets will have no food at all and my family is fortunate not to need any special medicines. However, the risk is not zero and so buying dry and tinned food that can be used up in the future as part of our usual consumption over the course of the next year.

 The cost for this food insurance is essentially zero, the interest we could earn by keeping it in money is truly tiny. The payout could be literally life saving. As Bill points out we can live without food for significant time... but I'll be dammed if I will see my children go hungry for days & weeks when the alternative is a tiny opportunity cost.

 Regardless of if you think Brexit is a good idea or not - the way it is being implemented by Parliament is truly shocking failure. In less than 10 weeks Brexit may or may not have happened - may or may not have a deal in place - each of these outcomes have enormous long term consequences for business and therefore everyone in our country. We should be at the point of final runs of test running plans and scenarios to ensure continuity of business and supply lines... instead we have no idea what we need to prepare for.

 We are the worlds 9th richest country (by purchasing power parity)... and our people are stockpiling food. It's hard to imagine a worse political failure.

former player

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3922
  • Location: Avalon
Re: Driving over the cliff
« Reply #13 on: January 26, 2019, 05:30:50 AM »
I think it's unlikely we'll run out of food (too important to too many people to let that happen) but leaving the EU will I think put food prices up considerably long term, whether we crash out or have an agreed exit.

That Brexitprepping site has everything wrong, starting with not including a month or so's supply of toilet paper.

daverobev

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3174
  • Location: UK
Re: Driving over the cliff
« Reply #14 on: January 30, 2019, 12:16:03 PM »
I think it's unlikely we'll run out of food (too important to too many people to let that happen) but leaving the EU will I think put food prices up considerably long term, whether we crash out or have an agreed exit.

That Brexitprepping site has everything wrong, starting with not including a month or so's supply of toilet paper.

And no beer? Hehe.

I agree we're unlikely to "run out" but I don't want to be fighting my way through masses of angry people to get a couple of cans of beans. And the thing is, even if there isn't an actual shortage, people will still hoard.

So - I'm stocking up on canned and frozen stuff. I could probably survive a month now assuming I can still get clean water and electricity. I mean - a 10kg bag of rice, some dried beans, and some multivitamins and you won't starve.