Author Topic: Brexit  (Read 3291 times)

skip207

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Brexit
« on: August 17, 2017, 02:44:09 AM »
Anyone know what the likely travel restrictions (if any) will be to the EU once Brexit is complete?

Say you wanted to go and live in Spain or France for a few years would you need a visa or any special permissions?

londonstache

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2017, 02:51:57 AM »
Honestly I expect after several rounds of huffing and puffing there will not be much change from the current status quo.

skip207

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2017, 03:37:40 AM »
Hm, I kind of hope that's the case but as we will restrict access to the UK I would kind of expect them to do something similar.

Just I fancied spending a good chunk of time post FIRE over in the EU and don't want to be in the same situation as with the US where you only get 90 days.

jim555

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2017, 05:54:16 PM »
I would think it would revert to Schengen rules unless some special arrangement could be negotiated.  At the very least a visa for long stays will be needed.

Christof

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2017, 06:55:33 PM »
It'll likely be the same for both sides..

daverobev

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2017, 08:42:44 PM »
It was in the news today - they want free movement for other than work, pretty much. Visa free, I mean. Not sure about long stays. Check the BBC.
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jim555

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2017, 10:43:02 AM »
Visa free doesn't mean much.  Lots of countries have visa free entry for limited time frames and absolutely no work allowed.

Playing with Fire UK

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2017, 11:04:45 AM »
I'm not putting all my hopes on it; but Portugal currently has some very favourable tax treatment for EU pensioners who are happy to stay there for a year or two. I'd be delighted if that stayed in some form.

jim555

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2017, 03:05:11 PM »
There is no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.  So that means anyone from the EU can enter the UK without any passport being stamped by going to Dublin and walking over the border.  Once in NI then no further border checks.  So how does the UK "take back control" when they have an uncontrolled border?  Wouldn't goods flow into the EU from the UK without restriction?

Someone hasn't thought any of this through, what a cluster*^%.

Kwill

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2017, 03:47:50 PM »
I was sort of hoping it would be like the US and Canada. Americans and Canadians have to show passports at the border, but in most cases, they are let through pretty quickly. Americans are allowed to spend up to six months per year in Canada without a visa, and Canadians are allowed up to six months a year in the US. You need a visa to work in the other country, but a lot of Canadian retirees spend winters in warm areas of the States.

daverobev

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2017, 04:42:35 PM »
There is no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.  So that means anyone from the EU can enter the UK without any passport being stamped by going to Dublin and walking over the border.  Once in NI then no further border checks.  So how does the UK "take back control" when they have an uncontrolled border?  Wouldn't goods flow into the EU from the UK without restriction?

Someone hasn't thought any of this through, what a cluster*^%.

By putting border control in place.

You can't have border control without border control. Sigh.
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Playing with Fire UK

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #11 on: August 25, 2017, 01:24:23 AM »
There is no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.  So that means anyone from the EU can enter the UK without any passport being stamped by going to Dublin and walking over the border.  Once in NI then no further border checks.  So how does the UK "take back control" when they have an uncontrolled border?  Wouldn't goods flow into the EU from the UK without restriction?

Someone hasn't thought any of this through, what a cluster*^%.

By putting border control in place.

You can't have border control without border control. Sigh.

And then we hope that the fragile quasi-peace that took decades to negotiate remains...?
« Last Edit: August 25, 2017, 04:19:31 AM by Playing with Fire UK »

cerat0n1a

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #12 on: August 25, 2017, 04:05:07 AM »
By putting border control in place.

You can't have border control without border control. Sigh.

No, pay attention. The brexit border control fairies and their leprechaun cousins will make the problem go away with their magic powers. If only the current British government had thought through other parts of the Brexit strategy as well as they've handled this particular aspect.

daverobev

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #13 on: August 25, 2017, 10:00:48 AM »
There is no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.  So that means anyone from the EU can enter the UK without any passport being stamped by going to Dublin and walking over the border.  Once in NI then no further border checks.  So how does the UK "take back control" when they have an uncontrolled border?  Wouldn't goods flow into the EU from the UK without restriction?

Someone hasn't thought any of this through, what a cluster*^%.

By putting border control in place.

You can't have border control without border control. Sigh.

And then we hope that the fragile quasi-peace that took decades to negotiate remains...?

We just have to *hope* that, everything else aside, people prefer peace to terror.

I dunno how much you can blame the government/s. For being weak - doing what their electorate voted for, not actually *leading*.

I mean... the EU is a bag of shit in many ways. Better in than out, no doubt about it. But still a stupid... ah whatever. I'm extremely sour over how Greece has been handled. I certainly don't want a United States of Europe. I think the Euro is a great *idea*, it just doesn't hang together well (old catechism about not having single currency without single government) - in times of crisis.

Democracy is a nice idea, too. Except when people realise - on both sides - you can vote for whoever will give you more money/goodies.

But yeah. Voting 'leave' is fucking things up, and will continue to do so. There's no certainty on anything - how can businesses proceed?

I was about to type 'but the UK will survive', but of course the truth is it may not. It may be England/Scotland/Wales - and Christ knows for NI.

So sad. Sad, particularly, as someone with two English grandmothers, and one each of Scottish and Welsh for grandfathers. *The UK* is my home. Not 'just' England, though I am blatantly - if you talk to me - English, not Scottish (though I did live there for a bit), nor Welsh.

It's heartbreaking, but I guess as an adult I have to let that go. It's like seeing divorce. Painful. But it's not 'my' divorce. Just close family.
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Playing with Fire UK

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #14 on: August 25, 2017, 10:22:26 AM »
...
It's heartbreaking, but I guess as an adult I have to let that go. It's like seeing divorce. Painful. But it's not 'my' divorce. Just close family.

That sums up so much of what I've heard people saying about Brexit. Nicely done.

Father Dougal

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #15 on: August 28, 2017, 04:42:14 AM »
Honestly I expect after several rounds of huffing and puffing there will not be much change from the current status quo.

I think that's the short and correct answer.  In truth, no one can know for sure - it is possible that the politicians make a complete Horlicks of the whole thing.  The current PM does not seem to be a fan of making things easy.

However, on Ireland there is one important thing to remember.  Ireland is outside the Schengen visa area.  That means anyone travelling there from another EU country still has to show a passport.  Once in Ireland (like now), if there are no border checks to Northern Ireland, anyone entitled to be in Ireland could enter UK territory.  The difference in the future is that entitlement to work will probably be controlled (though I'm willing to bet that will be an online formality to any EU citizen with a job offer).  EU citizens will not need a visa to visit - that was not the case before the UK joined the EEC in the 70s.  The only solution will be a sensible one - there is already a general acceptance of a transition period after the 2019 deadline.

Like a lot of you, I was disappointed with the leave vote.  But that was because it suits me personally and financially (the weak pound sterling was not good news for me).  But, there's not much point being pessimistic.  The 250,000 net migration figure for the last year suggests plenty of people are still optimistic about the future of the UK, and so am I.

Will get back to my crystal ball, now.



« Last Edit: August 28, 2017, 09:31:15 AM by Father Dougal »

jim555

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #16 on: August 28, 2017, 07:17:03 AM »
In the UK currently you need "right to rent" and "right to work" paperwork, which is usually a valid passport or residence permit.  I can see a black market for cash labour developing for those who come in and ignore the paperwork requirements.  The UK effectively has the border of the ROI.

The DUP will not allow a border between NI and the UK and the ROI will not permit a border between NI and the ROI.  I don't see how this gets resolved. 

It seems the losers are the UK citizens who will loose free movement rights in the EU.

Father Dougal

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2017, 03:20:22 AM »

The DUP will not allow a border between NI and the UK and the ROI will not permit a border between NI and the ROI.  I don't see how this gets resolved. 


For movement of people, this is easy.  UK and ROI adopt a free movement area.  Just like they've had for donkey's years, even before the EU.  With the ROI outside Schengen, it would work fine, because the ROI has border controls with the EU.

If one were a cynic, one might think that this whole drama about movement of people in the island of Ireland is just a lot of noise which will be resolved early, letting the negotiators claim an early triumph on both sides.

The big issue is trade.  The UK would be happy to have totally free trade, just like now, so again Ireland would not be a problem.  The EU would benefit from free trade (it has a surplus with the UK, after all), but has a quandry politically.  If the EU is seen to give the UK a free trade deal, despite the fact it would benefit the whole EU (including the citizens in it, as now) then the UK would be in a better position than now, because it would not need to pay into the EU budget.  They can't have that, so the economy (and citizens) will have to suffer (politics over economics - the Euro, anyone?), unless the UK loses out in some way. 

The EU position at the moment is that the UK will have to pay cash to have access to the single market, like Norway does.  Can you imagine if the US asked for billions per year from the UK in exchange for free trade?

The rational economic response of the UK would be to give in to the blackmail and pay up.  The payment would be lower than the tax revenue from the higher GDP impact.  I reckon the continental Europeans will be shaking their heads wondering why the UK doesn't want to do this, but any British leader that agrees to this would be committing political suicide.

Luckily, we have a crack team of geniuses working hard on solving this problem.  Don't we? Oh.

cerat0n1a

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2017, 04:23:44 AM »
For movement of people, this is easy. 

It's not necessarily easy, lots of corner cases. I had some business visitors from India last week; they needed to get a Schengen visa to visit France and a UK visa to visit me. If the UK is allowing open access via Ireland, we are effectively saying that Ireland has the authority to let whoever it wants into the UK. Hardly the "taking back control of our borders" that was promised to Brexit voters.

If the UK expels someone (e.g. a potential terrorist), what is to stop that person simply re-entering the country via Ireland? Is there a legal process by which Ireland can deny them entry? Does the UK simply tell Ireland "Don't let this person into your country"? Are we going to pay Ireland to run border control on our behalf - can't see them doing it for free?

Consider the situation with the Jungle at Calais. If I am an illegal immigrant/ genuine refugee/asylum seeker and I make my way across Europe, hoping to gain entry to the UK, do I go to Calais and try to get across the channel, or do I get the ferry from France to Ireland and simply take a bus ride across the border, knowing that neither the French nor Irish governments is that bothered about stopping me and providing me with a home and so on. Can't see British tabloids putting up with that for long.

The big issue is trade.  The UK would be happy to have totally free trade, just like now, so again Ireland would not be a problem.  The EU would benefit from free trade (it has a surplus with the UK, after all), but has a quandry politically.  If the EU is seen to give the UK a free trade deal, despite the fact it would benefit the whole EU (including the citizens in it, as now) then the UK would be in a better position than now, because it would not need to pay into the EU budget. 

That's not the main trade issue. There is a big difference between free trade and membership of the single market. I expect tariff-free trade between the UK and EU to continue whatever the outcome of the negotiations - no serious person on either side expects tariffs.

Consider what happens when (if?) the UK manages to do a trade deal with a third party. Imagine the UK is obliged to accept US meat products which are currently banned in Europe (e.g. chlorinated chicken, steroid injected beef.) The EU would then need to find a way to stop such products being re-exported from the UK into the European market. Likewise, if "taking back control" means British regulations on any tradeable goods are different from EU rules, there is a potential issue in either direction.

As there appears to be no plan to deal with the Irish border, or to recruit extra customs staff, or build more facilities at Dover or other UK ports, it's hard to believe that the UK government has any intention to change anything about its borders in 2019. I imagine the people involved in the billion dollar MTIC/Carousel/VAT fraud game are rubbing their hands at the moment. 

Father Dougal

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #19 on: August 30, 2017, 05:59:47 AM »
For movement of people, this is easy. 

It's not necessarily easy, lots of corner cases. I had some business visitors from India last week; they needed to get a Schengen visa to visit France and a UK visa to visit me. If the UK is allowing open access via Ireland, we are effectively saying that Ireland has the authority to let whoever it wants into the UK. Hardly the "taking back control of our borders" that was promised to Brexit voters.

If the UK expels someone (e.g. a potential terrorist), what is to stop that person simply re-entering the country via Ireland? Is there a legal process by which Ireland can deny them entry? Does the UK simply tell Ireland "Don't let this person into your country"? Are we going to pay Ireland to run border control on our behalf - can't see them doing it for free?

Consider the situation with the Jungle at Calais. If I am an illegal immigrant/ genuine refugee/asylum seeker and I make my way across Europe, hoping to gain entry to the UK, do I go to Calais and try to get across the channel, or do I get the ferry from France to Ireland and simply take a bus ride across the border, knowing that neither the French nor Irish governments is that bothered about stopping me and providing me with a home and so on. Can't see British tabloids putting up with that for long.


OK, there's a lot in your post.  Your main point seems to me to be that this is all very complicated.  I agree.  And everything would have been easier had the UK voted to stay in the EU.  I agree with that too, and was disappointed the vote went the other way.

To answer your point on your Indian visitors, in order to visit Ireland, they would need an Irish visa (as Ireland is outside Schengen, the Schengen visa would not apply, as now).  Under my (!?) scheme, yes, they could walk across the border to Northern Ireland and be inside the UK.  Agreed, this would not be the full control of borders that a swivel-eyed Brexiteer would like.  But they would not be allowed to work (legally at any rate), so I'm sure it could be dressed up as a degree of control having been maintained.  The only way to have full control would be to put up a border and that ain't gonna happen.  The issue of control was really about free movement of EU citizens.  They are all going to be able to come to the UK anyway.

Your terrorist example is interesting.  It would apply to all deportees, actually, and applies now.  If the UK deports a criminal after the sentence is served, there is currently nothing to stop the criminal applying for an Irish visa and coming back.  This also applies in reverse for deportees from Ireland coming to the UK.  I don't think there would be any change from the current arrangement whereby the two countries share information.   The lucky thing is that Ireland is outside Schengen.  If it joined, then things would be more complicated.  (Good question on the Calais Jungle - I don't think the ferry companies will be willing to let them on the ferry, as they will still need a valid visa to get into Ireland.  It's not happening now.  And remember, even if the illegal immigrants made it to the UK, it is their desired destination, so they are not going to form big camps in Armagh, so it wonít be the big visible problem we have now.)

The trade issue is also a thorny one.  I agree with you that barrier-free trade with the EU would be great.  I'm actually more concerned than you are that this might not happen, because for me the holy grail would be trade conditions as we have now!  Free trade agreements with other countries could indeed cause a big problem for trade with the EU.  In my opinion the bottom line is that the UK will not be able to sacrifice EU trade for an agreement with another country.  So they won't happen if they cause problems.

One thing that comforts me is that big business is strongly in favour of the status quo.  They will bring a lot of pressure to bear on the politicians.  The EU does have form of making political decisions that cause a lot of misery (the Euro springs to mind), but not if industry is against it.  Business was strongly in favour of the Euro because it reduced costs.  All the politicos (and most of the civil servants) will have one eye on the lucrative retirement jobs they are all looking forward to, so itís in their best interests to toe the line (if you know what I meanÖ).

cerat0n1a

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #20 on: August 30, 2017, 10:42:51 AM »
Under my (!?) scheme, yes, they could walk across the border to Northern Ireland and be inside the UK. 

It's a lot easier to go by car (or even public transport) :-)

Father Dougal

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #21 on: August 30, 2017, 11:44:37 AM »
Under my (!?) scheme, yes, they could walk across the border to Northern Ireland and be inside the UK. 

It's a lot easier to go by car (or even public transport) :-)

I think MMM would frown on their going by car.  Maybe bike?