Glad others are wrestling with a similar conundrum.
Probably in that middle ground. Although I think even if you were going to retire at 30 the same questions apply, because someone in a position to do that probably has a pretty good employer pension match available to them, and may also be a higher rate taxpayer as
@cerat0n1a points out.
Currently mid-30s. On track to hit our 25x number including pensions at about 43yo. I'm assuming private pension age will probably be 60 by the time we get there, so maybe 17 year gap. If we waited to have 25x in accessible ISA, it might mean working until about 51yo, then effectively doubling our income nine years later. By ~43, there will be enough in pensions that, left alone for 15 years or so, will probably be enough to completely fund us from 60 onwards.
So yeah, optimum RE point would result in almost running out of money at 59yo (and thus very vulnerable to, say, a market crash at 57/58).
TLDR: Everything above is basically "me too"
My current plan is basically the same as
@cerat0n1a - 25x including pensions, excluding house, then think about whether there's enough accessible to get to pension age.
I just keep thinking of the MMM Confidence vs Money post. I think there's quite a few safety factors built in for me:
- Conservative growth projections.
- Assuming no earnings post-FIRE. If nothing else, there's always B&Q. Our expenses are such that one full-time minimum wage job would just about cover them, leaving time for 'stache recovery.
- Will be empty-nested by the time we hit the 'cashflow-critical' few years, so permanent or temporary downsizing is always an option.
- Our inaccessible 'stache includes a couple of years of two person full LISA subscription as well as pensions. I doubt we'll put any more into the LISAs, but that would be accessible in an emergency, and might cover a year or two of expenses even after losing the withdrawal penalty.
We're a long way out, so plenty of time for confidence to ebb and flow.