Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 820182 times)

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4450 on: January 24, 2021, 08:17:42 AM »
@billsfan1_2000 - chiming in, as I took a sabbatical last year to try & answer some of these questions for myself. I'm now back to work, with a clear exit timeline & a better picture of the future. Full disclosure - I don't need to be working right now (slightly over the $4m mark), but there are a couple of financial milestones that are easier to hit with me working a few more years, and it's what I've agreed with my husband.

Over the sabbatical, my experience was I'm not interested in things I've never been interested in (cleaning the house all day was as unenjoyable as it was when I was employed full time). But, the mental space gave me the capacity to evaluate other areas of interest. I started a volunteering job (very part time for now), I came up with very clear routines for myself, & I worked out a lot. I explored writing, traveled (non COVID times), etc. For me, it was clear that I needed routines, some sort of social interaction outside of the people in my family, & something workish, even if very part time & not for pay. What you need will differ, but once you've had the time & space, mentally as well as just actual time, some of that will come to you.

Also, on my sabbatical, you know what i never missed fondly? Emails, meetings, deck creations, fire drills, etc. I did miss the camaraderie of great people, but that can be replicated in many ways.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4451 on: January 24, 2021, 11:15:14 AM »
Hi all.

I am a frequent reader but only occasional poster here.  I read with interest your many chronicles of life.

Hoping to lean into your insight y'all....

I am 57, LNW just over $4M and 5 weeks away from the magical date of Feb 26 when the annual bonus arrives (around $100k pre tax), multiple tranches of restricted shares will have vested, the firm's annual lump sum contribution to 401k will have been made, college age son's last tuition payment (finally!!) will be behind me. 

I have had the date March 1, 2021 circled on the mental calendar for 2 years now thinking that's the day I call the boss, give them the news that I am leaving and move on to different things.

Wondering how all of you handled the Decision?  Any regrets? 

I find myself torn between the desire to leave behind the soul crushing meetings, endless powerpoints and serious issues of balance where - partly because we are COVID work from home - the lines between personal and work life are blurred and we are expected to be "on" pretty much 24/7.

On the other hand - I become bored quickly and after a few months of fixing up the house wonder what on earth I'd do (apart from golf daily)?

Anyone have any thoughts on how the leap of faith to this new world went for you?  What part time jobs that are fun and pay for health insurance are out there?

With the date now looming worried about the transition from working in the professional world for 30++ years, with all the prestige, money, not having to care about spending, to - something different....

Cheers!




Reinvent yourself.  Try anything that you've ever wanted to try.  Golf is for old guys & ladder climbing, you can always resume that later.  Go see the world.  Try something new.  Pick up an old passion that you'd given up to be a grown-up.  Do you like boats, motorcycles, airplanes, RVs?  What about crafts or hobbies?  Have you ever wanted to try pottery, glassblowing, woodworking, weaving, photography, orchid breeding, or growing the world's largest pumpkin?  Have you tried scuba diving, sky diving, river rafting, sailing, brewing beer, or racing gocarts?


If you're out of shape, well get in shape and then "go for it", whatever your its are.  Make a dream list & live some of your dreams.


Don't forget about volunteering.  Volunteers make the world a better place. 


Also, remember the saying "If you're bored it's because you are boring."  (or something like that) 


And...for another perspective, go visit a nursing home.  That's our next stop.



Very Well said! Totally agree.

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4452 on: January 24, 2021, 11:29:41 AM »
Hi all.

I am a frequent reader but only occasional poster here.  I read with interest your many chronicles of life.

Hoping to lean into your insight y'all....

I am 57, LNW just over $4M and 5 weeks away from the magical date of Feb 26 when the annual bonus arrives (around $100k pre tax), multiple tranches of restricted shares will have vested, the firm's annual lump sum contribution to 401k will have been made, college age son's last tuition payment (finally!!) will be behind me. 

I have had the date March 1, 2021 circled on the mental calendar for 2 years now thinking that's the day I call the boss, give them the news that I am leaving and move on to different things.

Wondering how all of you handled the Decision?  Any regrets? 

I find myself torn between the desire to leave behind the soul crushing meetings, endless powerpoints and serious issues of balance where - partly because we are COVID work from home - the lines between personal and work life are blurred and we are expected to be "on" pretty much 24/7.

On the other hand - I become bored quickly and after a few months of fixing up the house wonder what on earth I'd do (apart from golf daily)?

Anyone have any thoughts on how the leap of faith to this new world went for you?  What part time jobs that are fun and pay for health insurance are out there?

With the date now looming worried about the transition from working in the professional world for 30++ years, with all the prestige, money, not having to care about spending, to - something different....

Cheers!

What you chose to do depends a lot on your personality type. I feel happiest when I'm actually creating something rather than just passively watching videos or even reading stuff. I have been making good progress on actually getting back to creating stuff in retirement.

Although I worked in the software industry for thirty years, towards the end, I spent more time in endless meetings discussing what to do rather than actually writing code. After I retired last October, I have been thoroughly absorbed learning Swift (a new programming language from Apple)  and am planning to start releasing apps on the App Store.

Meanwhile, I have just finished renovating my basement and am getting back into building a model train layout - which has been my hobby since childhood.

The three big requirements for most hobbies are time, space and money - in retirement you will most likely have all three. Nothing stopping you from getting started 😀

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4453 on: January 24, 2021, 11:45:45 AM »
So I had a couple of well documented false starts to retirement, but thats OK because I had the most fun I've ever had being paid hourly for the first time in my life after I retired. Whats more they sent me all over the world and the money was rolling in every hour I snoozed on the airplane..:).

Now after 4 years of no paid work whatsoever I can't imagine actually working for a living! Just figuring out the tax code so you can minimise your income and maximise your ACA subsidy is a project in itself..:)

Incidentley my Wife and I spend about $40 to 50k/year but have an official income of $32 and pay under $10/month for a Bronze plan.

I personally love travel and when I can't I'm working in my shop on something or another. We have a small farmette and two rental buildings on our property. Something always needs to be welded somewhere..:)

markbike528CBX

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4454 on: January 24, 2021, 12:25:00 PM »
@billsfan1_2000 -
 ... Big snip....., deck creations, ...........small snip....
@MaybeBabyMustache    Ok I'll bite, what is a deck creation?
I swear I looked it up but only got references to the wood thingy you attach to your house.

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4455 on: January 24, 2021, 01:45:42 PM »
@billsfan1_2000 -
 ... Big snip....., deck creations, ...........small snip....
@MaybeBabyMustache    Ok I'll bite, what is a deck creation?
I swear I looked it up but only got references to the wood thingy you attach to your house.

Slides :-) Powerpoint, Google Slides, etc. So many meetings, so many exec presentations, so many "decks" created

markbike528CBX

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4456 on: January 24, 2021, 03:08:17 PM »
@billsfan1_2000 -
 ... Big snip....., deck creations, ...........small snip....
@MaybeBabyMustache    Ok I'll bite, what is a deck creation?
I swear I looked it up but only got references to the wood thingy you attach to your house.

Slides :-) Powerpoint, Google Slides, etc. So many meetings, so many exec presentations, so many "decks" created

Sorry I still think of decks as in Hypercard© stacks.  :-)   

Powerpoint:
I've seen Powerpoint accused of:
       the Challenger Disaster  in  Visual and Statistical Thinking: Displays of Evidence for Making Decisions  Edward R. Tufte ISBN-13: 978-0961392130 pg 16-31
       the Columbia Disaster in    The Cognitive Style of PowerPoint: Pitching Out Corrupts Within, by Edward R. Tufte   ISBN-13: 978-0961392161  pg 7-11 
      issues with inappropriate strategies ie Effect Based Operations (vs being adaptable) being used.   Call Sign Chaos: Learning to Lead by Jim Mattis

So what you may think is your visceral reaction to Powerpoint seems to be supported by data.

Just a shout-out to Jim Mattis, who went to the same local high school as my wife.  Also, Secretary of Defense to Trump who quit after one year:
Quote
"Because you have the right to have a Secretary of Defense whose views are better aligned with yours on these and other subjects, I believe it is right for me to step down from my position. "
  - That is pretty harsh language from a ex-military Sec. of Def.  He is a Marine, you can fill in the blanks.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/20/politics/james-mattis-resignation-letter-doc/index.html
« Last Edit: January 24, 2021, 04:26:38 PM by markbike528CBX »

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4457 on: January 24, 2021, 03:38:31 PM »
Hi all.

I am a frequent reader but only occasional poster here.  I read with interest your many chronicles of life.

Hoping to lean into your insight y'all....

I am 57, LNW just over $4M and 5 weeks away from the magical date of Feb 26 when the annual bonus arrives (around $100k pre tax), multiple tranches of restricted shares will have vested, the firm's annual lump sum contribution to 401k will have been made, college age son's last tuition payment (finally!!) will be behind me. 

I have had the date March 1, 2021 circled on the mental calendar for 2 years now thinking that's the day I call the boss, give them the news that I am leaving and move on to different things.

Wondering how all of you handled the Decision?  Any regrets? 

I find myself torn between the desire to leave behind the soul crushing meetings, endless powerpoints and serious issues of balance where - partly because we are COVID work from home - the lines between personal and work life are blurred and we are expected to be "on" pretty much 24/7.

On the other hand - I become bored quickly and after a few months of fixing up the house wonder what on earth I'd do (apart from golf daily)?

Anyone have any thoughts on how the leap of faith to this new world went for you?  What part time jobs that are fun and pay for health insurance are out there?

With the date now looming worried about the transition from working in the professional world for 30++ years, with all the prestige, money, not having to care about spending, to - something different....

Cheers!

Learn / Attempt to learn a musical instrument.  You are not too old to rock'n'roll.  Or learn a second one.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4458 on: January 24, 2021, 04:13:49 PM »
It’s so interesting to be thinking thoughts about bonus payments coming up, lump sum retirement contribution, and performance reviews, and wondering about the same OMY thoughts I get into during the second quarter of every year. And what do I find when I check my favorite thread? Same issue with some pretty great answers, that’s what!

But until early March at least, I’m still working, so back into the garage for some weekend rebar and concrete form work, and later tonight a couple of slides to finish up an important deck for tomorrow...

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4459 on: January 24, 2021, 04:36:37 PM »
@markbike528CBX - hello, from a Washington native (now in CA). I've spent LOTS of my career working on decks, and there are pros & cons for sure. Mostly because data & slides can be adapted to support pretty much anything. ;-)

aspiringnomad

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4460 on: January 26, 2021, 09:44:41 AM »
Hi all - just checking in here after graduating from the previous thread. Currently at $2.25m net worth including a paid off rental property. I'm 38 and FIRE'd abroad last year so not really racing anywhere anymore, but thought I might benefit from the wisdom of folks here.

Melisande

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4461 on: January 26, 2021, 07:51:36 PM »
Just checked the finances today and what with the latest upswing in the markets, I am happy to report  that we are now over $3M with investments (NW = $3.42M  with equity included).

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4462 on: January 28, 2021, 09:01:01 AM »
Hi all - just checking in here after graduating from the previous thread. Currently at $2.25m net worth including a paid off rental property. I'm 38 and FIRE'd abroad last year so not really racing anywhere anymore, but thought I might benefit from the wisdom of folks here.

Welcome to the thread.  None of us are racing anywhere, really!  More like a saunter.   Where did you retire abroad? 

itchyfeet

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4463 on: January 29, 2021, 05:26:47 AM »
None of us are racing anywhere, really!  More like a saunter.   Where did you retire abroad?

Indeed. 90 pages of saunter.

The main posters on this thread are those that posted back on page 1.

I just check from time to time, but back on page 1 we were mostly just pushing past $2m and now most of us have passed $3m or $4m. And that is just 4 years ago.

I still don’t know when I’ll FIRE.

I’ve been financially handcuffed by my employer now through to Feb 2021. I’ll prob play along and make a decision at that point. It will not really be a financial decision, although I’m not so rich that more money won’t be useful to some degree. It’s now more a question of whether DW and I are ready to completely disrupt our lives. We oscillate on this. DW is quite keen to continue working.

LightTripper

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4464 on: January 29, 2021, 08:16:12 AM »
Well, I'm started on my very gradual RE.  I'm now officially on a 3 day week, and will try to reduce further at Easter (or stop altogether).

I have to say with Covid/homeschool/winter/tax season/life it doesn't particularly feel like I am part time!  But I have been working fewer hours, and definitely feeling less broken than I would have been if I'd been trying to bill 40-50 hours a week on top of everything else.  So feeling grateful to have the freedom to do that!

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M
« Reply #4465 on: January 29, 2021, 01:30:50 PM »
Dicey, if you don't mind my asking, how do you assign a value to your husband's defined benefit pension? My husband should get about $27K/year (flat,non-COLA'd, 50% joint survivor) starting in 13 years.

Well, you didn't ask me :-), but what I do is divide by .04, to figure how how much the "'stache-equivalent" amount is.  E.g., to take out $27K/yr at the 4% rule, I'd need $675K.  Now, that is the 'stache-equivalent in 13 years, when he is eligible for that $27K/yr.  So if you want the current value of that, you could present-value it back to today's dollars.  But personally, I don't care that much -- I just like to know that, hey, in 13 years, I will have the equivalent of $675K more in my 'stache. 

But actually, even that is bass-ackwards, because the whole point of the 'stache is to throw off income -- so when you already know the income, you don't even need to calculate an equivalent 'stache value.  So in your case, I'd just knock the $27K off of the annual income you need, and then figure out how much else you need to save to cover the delta.  E.g., I need $40K/yr, I have $27K/yr already guaranteed, so my delta is $13K/yr.  Ergo, 4% rule, I need $13K x 25 = $325K more in my 'stache in 13 years.

Here's a good quote from page 1 one the thread.   With the amazing gains that the stock market has seen, most of you must be soaring by the goals of several years ago.   

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4466 on: January 29, 2021, 02:48:27 PM »
The past week snipped a few gains.  But yes, when first posting on MMM my goal was 1.5M, that passed a while ago along with a mindset change.  Now it's a date goal.  881 days to go.
My old goals are below.  Recently touched 2.7M it's possible to hit 3.5M by the target date. 


FIRE 2023

2016  $1,300,000
2017  $1,440,000
2018  $1,588,000
2019  $1,743,000
2020  $1,906,000
2021  $2,077,000
2022  $ 2,256,000
2023  $2,445,000
*****FIRE*********age 55 (minimum retirement age from employer)
« Last Edit: January 29, 2021, 02:57:12 PM by Bateaux »

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M
« Reply #4467 on: January 30, 2021, 03:43:56 AM »
Here's a good quote from page 1 one the thread.   With the amazing gains that the stock market has seen, most of you must be soaring by the goals of several years ago.

Hah - I didn't even have a goal in 2017. This was before I had discovered FIRE and still enjoyed my work. I fully expected to work until 65. But then, there was a corporate reshuffle that wiped out my entire chain of highly supportive managers. By the end of 2018, I was eyeing the exits and wondering if I had enough to quit.

The first time I ran a FIRE calculator was at the end of 2018 (I think it was cFIREsim) and I discovered that I was already FI. The power of index fund investment on autopilot for 25 years 😀

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4468 on: January 30, 2021, 03:45:42 AM »
The past week snipped a few gains.  But yes, when first posting on MMM my goal was 1.5M, that passed a while ago along with a mindset change.  Now it's a date goal.  881 days to go.
My old goals are below.  Recently touched 2.7M it's possible to hit 3.5M by the target date. 


FIRE 2023

2016  $1,300,000
2017  $1,440,000
2018  $1,588,000
2019  $1,743,000
2020  $1,906,000
2021  $2,077,000
2022  $ 2,256,000
2023  $2,445,000
*****FIRE*********age 55 (minimum retirement age from employer)



Well done! And totally possible

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4469 on: January 30, 2021, 06:43:55 AM »
The past week snipped a few gains.  But yes, when first posting on MMM my goal was 1.5M, that passed a while ago along with a mindset change.  Now it's a date goal.  881 days to go.
My old goals are below.  Recently touched 2.7M it's possible to hit 3.5M by the target date. 


FIRE 2023

2016  $1,300,000
2017  $1,440,000
2018  $1,588,000
2019  $1,743,000
2020  $1,906,000
2021  $2,077,000
2022  $ 2,256,000
2023  $2,445,000
*****FIRE*********age 55 (minimum retirement age from employer)

Good job.   I definitely had a mindset change from when I hit my first goal to when I ultimately FIRE'd  I hated what I was doing and wanted out so badly.  So when I hit that first number, which was probably my real FI number when I think about it, it caused me to really start thinking about my overall FIRE plan and I realized that there was more needed in the budget for wants (for DW and kids and me) to be fully satisfied (more of a fatfire) plus wanting to put some more aside for college, medical, and looming big purchases (car, desired but not needed home improvements). 

In hindsight, even though I hated my job it was working a few more years to shore up the finances and really cover the lifestyle.  Somewhat of a OMY combined with intentionally inflating the budget (we could have been fine on the lower number but there would have been less wants provided for and maybe more college loans).  So worth it. 


JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4470 on: January 30, 2021, 01:39:25 PM »
The past week snipped a few gains.  But yes, when first posting on MMM my goal was 1.5M, that passed a while ago along with a mindset change.  Now it's a date goal.  881 days to go.
My old goals are below.  Recently touched 2.7M it's possible to hit 3.5M by the target date. 


FIRE 2023

2016  $1,300,000
2017  $1,440,000
2018  $1,588,000
2019  $1,743,000
2020  $1,906,000
2021  $2,077,000
2022  $ 2,256,000
2023  $2,445,000
*****FIRE*********age 55 (minimum retirement age from employer)

Good for you, Bateaux.   I think having a plan (subject to revisions) will keep things in perspective.   

For us, semi retirement is great.   We have minimal obligations and lots of freedom.   That used to mean we traveled extensively, and 2020 lockdowns meant 6 or 8 trips cancelled, mostly abroad.    We picked up a great oceanfront second home and driving there holds minimal covid risk. 

 Since we were both self employed, our game plan and financial landscape look so completely different than anyone in the corporate world with pensions and 401ks.   There's far less to shed in FI when your boss looks back at you from the mirror.   

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4471 on: February 03, 2021, 12:53:42 PM »
What a rollercoaster the market has been last week or so especially with the Reddit/ Wallstreetbets crew,  BUT a lot of total blowout earnings.

Hijinks

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4472 on: February 05, 2021, 01:34:29 PM »
This is kind of nuts, but it looks like I can officially post in this thread now. The last time I posted a net worth update was ages ago.

07/06/19 $1,343,274
02/05/21 $2,002,435

That jump is pretty bonkers to me, and I fully recognize that we will likely hop around the $2M mark for a while. Numbers reflect cash and investments (but excludes equity in our home, of which we have $163,220).

Very excited to start following along on everyone's journeys!

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4473 on: February 05, 2021, 09:58:31 PM »
This is kind of nuts, but it looks like I can officially post in this thread now. The last time I posted a net worth update was ages ago.

07/06/19 $1,343,274
02/05/21 $2,002,435

That jump is pretty bonkers to me, and I fully recognize that we will likely hop around the $2M mark for a while. Numbers reflect cash and investments (but excludes equity in our home, of which we have $163,220).

Very excited to start following along on everyone's journeys!

Congratulations!

I kinda think there will be a lot of entries this year. All over the globe the powers at be are creating a lot of money.  That money should eventually find its way to worthy mustachians.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4474 on: February 06, 2021, 05:00:05 AM »
I agree this year, well really the past 4 years is nuts.  In June of 2017, I engaged a fee only financial advisor to back check my theory that I should take a mortgage out and invest the difference when I moved locations (@Dicey DPOYM).  My net worth at that time was $1,232,900 with only 675,081 in investments, but 500k in a primary and rental property.

Today I’m at 2,060,000 with $1,840,000 liquid, I do count equity in my home for net worth for multiple reasons.

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4475 on: February 06, 2021, 07:09:52 AM »
The increases have been surreal, no other way to put it.  And I have fairly conservative AA.   The weird feelings I have sometimes is that I think I would prefer to have less but with more stable normal kind of growth as for now I can't help but think the increases for the last few years will vanish.   Easy come, easy go kind of thinking.

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4476 on: February 06, 2021, 07:24:33 AM »
The increases have been surreal, no other way to put it.  And I have fairly conservative AA.   The weird feelings I have sometimes is that I think I would prefer to have less but with more stable normal kind of growth as for now I can't help but think the increases for the last few years will vanish.   Easy come, easy go kind of thinking.

I keep periodically showing my wife net worth data (currently, just about $5.6M with a very conservative AA) and she still doesn't believe it either 😀

Hijinks

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4477 on: February 06, 2021, 08:14:06 AM »
This is kind of nuts, but it looks like I can officially post in this thread now. The last time I posted a net worth update was ages ago.

07/06/19 $1,343,274
02/05/21 $2,002,435

That jump is pretty bonkers to me, and I fully recognize that we will likely hop around the $2M mark for a while. Numbers reflect cash and investments (but excludes equity in our home, of which we have $163,220).

Very excited to start following along on everyone's journeys!

Congratulations!

I kinda think there will be a lot of entries this year. All over the globe the powers at be are creating a lot of money.  That money should eventually find its way to worthy mustachians.

Thank you! I'm still just completely shocked.

The increases have been surreal, no other way to put it.  And I have fairly conservative AA.   The weird feelings I have sometimes is that I think I would prefer to have less but with more stable normal kind of growth as for now I can't help but think the increases for the last few years will vanish.   Easy come, easy go kind of thinking.

I keep periodically showing my wife net worth data (currently, just about $5.6M with a very conservative AA) and she still doesn't believe it either 😀

My husband doesn't believe it either! Also, we both had pretty decent stashes when we were single, but getting married and joining forces has really ramped things up!

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4478 on: February 06, 2021, 10:23:04 AM »
The increases have been surreal, no other way to put it.  And I have fairly conservative AA.   The weird feelings I have sometimes is that I think I would prefer to have less but with more stable normal kind of growth as for now I can't help but think the increases for the last few years will vanish.   Easy come, easy go kind of thinking.

Yes, the market has been great for the past decade, but it usually is great.  Here's average annual total returns for the S&P 500 per decade:

1920s: 15%
1930s: -3%
1940s: 10%
1950s: 19%
1960s: 8%
1970s: 6%
1980s 18%
1990s: 18%
2000s: -1%
2010s: 14%

So its not like we're on a once in a lifetime tear by any measure.  The past decade was amazing compared to the real 3-6% most here conservatively have in their head as expected returns.

But yes wrt easy come easy go, not only looking at years within decades can show a much different story, heck, just looking at particular months in 2020 looked frightening....but then didn't.

I wouldn't be surprised at all with next decade returning 15%/year on average...or nothing at all.  Heck, its all within one standard deviation so its not like either of those results would be extreme!


GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4479 on: February 06, 2021, 11:02:21 AM »
Even though I overreacted and cashed out of the market during the crash and only slowly began to reenter in late June we're up 30.4% today.  VTI gained almost 21% for 2020, so I don't feel too bad.  Plus I harvested the losses which will offset some of the gains from the real estate we sold. 


2020 taught me a lot about investing and I am grateful for the experience.  It could have been so much better, but it could have been so much worse. 


Cheers!
:)

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4480 on: February 06, 2021, 11:03:45 AM »
Here's average annual total returns for the S&P 500 per decade:

1920s: 15%
1930s: -3%
1940s: 10%
1950s: 19%
1960s: 8%
1970s: 6%
1980s 18%
1990s: 18%
2000s: -1%
2010s: 14%

Yep.  Averages out to 10.4%.   Historical average is a smidge over 10%.   Gosh, pretty much like we read it was.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4481 on: February 06, 2021, 11:29:11 AM »
Just have to watch out for those lost decades.  Luckily many of us were building the stash during the 2000s and are now seeing the returns.  Those that retired in the 90s may have had some challenges however.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4482 on: February 06, 2021, 12:39:05 PM »
I think the market is looking a little overheated so I took a look at our AA. I thought we were running around 60:40 but its actually 72/28 due to the recent stock run ups.

I might rebalance some of that next week especially in the light of the Fed pledging to keep interest rates low.

Would give a lot of buying power if stocks take a major dump too.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4483 on: February 06, 2021, 03:23:14 PM »
I think the market is looking a little overheated ...

I've thought the same thing since 2012.   

I've learned to live with the fact that I have no clue what the market will do -- other than it will trend upwards over time and periodically drop like a stone.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4484 on: February 06, 2021, 04:05:44 PM »
I think the market is looking a little overheated ...

I've thought the same thing since 2012.   

I've learned to live with the fact that I have no clue what the market will do -- other than it will trend upwards over time and periodically drop like a stone.



I was at 67/33 so instead of rebalancing I took out about my next 6 months of withdrawals out for the year. If it keeps running I wont be taking out and if it drops to a buyable spot I have extra cash to buy back. There is now 4 Trillion on the sidelines and more stimulus coming and great earnings reported so one would think though bumpy we could , maybe, perhaps, but who knows see some more upside...

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4485 on: February 06, 2021, 04:53:07 PM »
History question about those stock market returns:

1920s: 15%
1930s: -3%
1940s: 10%
1950s: 19%
1960s: 8%
1970s: 6%
1980s 18%
1990s: 18%
2000s: -1%
2010s: 14%

Why were the returns low in the 1960s and 1970s?  I remember oil going up in the 70s and hammering the economy.  I remember inflation in the seventies.  What about the sixties?  Gas was cheap, American manufacturing was booming and a war was going on.  I can see the 2000s.  It got hammered by the dot com boom and the real estate speculation in 2008-9.  The 1960s was when America went to the moon.  I thought they were supposed to be golden years.  Can we be hit by whatever happened in the sixties?

deborah

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4486 on: February 06, 2021, 05:21:20 PM »
Vietnam war. Protectionism. Gold standard.

swaneesr

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4487 on: February 06, 2021, 07:04:05 PM »
I think the market is looking a little overheated ...

I've thought the same thing since 2012.   

I've learned to live with the fact that I have no clue what the market will do -- other than it will trend upwards over time and periodically drop like a stone.
Me too. I need to learn to accept that I have no clue what and when the market will move. So much drama. I just need to sit tight and bear the good and bad.

If I followed my impulses I would more often be wrong.

Swanee


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tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4488 on: February 06, 2021, 09:54:22 PM »
I think the market is looking a little overheated ...

I've thought the same thing since 2012.   

I've learned to live with the fact that I have no clue what the market will do -- other than it will trend upwards over time and periodically drop like a stone.



I was at 67/33 so instead of rebalancing I took out about my next 6 months of withdrawals out for the year. If it keeps running I wont be taking out and if it drops to a buyable spot I have extra cash to buy back. There is now 4 Trillion on the sidelines and more stimulus coming and great earnings reported so one would think though bumpy we could , maybe, perhaps, but who knows see some more upside...

I too think there is more upside but also downside.   Anyway, don't buy into the cash on the sidelines narrative.   Cash balances increase over time but aside from that think about all the people like me that have moved a lot of bond holdings into cash getting similar rate without duration risk.  Meanwhile fed and foreign investors are providing demand to keep rates low.  Hence a lot of cash on sidelines

FireLane

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4489 on: February 07, 2021, 07:49:33 AM »
Just idle speculation, but I wonder if the coming decades could see a major increase in stock market returns.

It's technology that drives productivity, and we're poised for an era of exponential technology growth. In the next decade, we're going to see self-landing rockets making spaceflight cheap, self-driving cars deployed at scale, 3-D printing and robotics making it trivial to manufacture most consumer products, and CRISPR-based genetic therapy and RNA vaccines curing most diseases. Plus, with the proliferation of wind and solar, we'll have abundant cheap energy at a level we haven't seen since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

Possibly I'm being too optimistic. But markets are pretty good at making forecasts, and when the market stays at these P/E levels for this long, maybe it's not a fluke. Maybe it's a signal about how valuable it's going to be for the people who own the technology in the near future.

G-dog

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4490 on: February 07, 2021, 07:57:22 AM »
I just crossed into the $2MM mark this week.  I FIREd at a bit over $1MM in July 2015 - so I got my 2nd million while not working in about 5.5 years. Crazy.

I am all in stocks (index funds), but have a pension (taking) and SS (not old enough to take yet) so those are my “bond” allocation.

How long for the next million or doubling??

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4491 on: February 07, 2021, 09:23:29 AM »
History question about those stock market returns:

1920s: 15%
1930s: -3%
1940s: 10%
1950s: 19%
1960s: 8%
1970s: 6%
1980s 18%
1990s: 18%
2000s: -1%
2010s: 14%

Why were the returns low in the 1960s and 1970s?  I remember oil going up in the 70s and hammering the economy.  I remember inflation in the seventies.  What about the sixties?  Gas was cheap, American manufacturing was booming and a war was going on.  I can see the 2000s.  It got hammered by the dot com boom and the real estate speculation in 2008-9.  The 1960s was when America went to the moon.  I thought they were supposed to be golden years.  Can we be hit by whatever happened in the sixties?

So many different ways to look at it.  Maybe because the stock market is forward looking, so the market was bad in the 60s b/c of things being bad in the 70s.  Maybe we were just due after two great decades of returns (maybe the 2000s was that as well, and maybe that means we could have another great decade in store for the 2020s and then for the 2030s watch out...).  All just guesses of course but that's about all I know to do.

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4492 on: February 07, 2021, 10:07:51 AM »
Just idle speculation, but I wonder if the coming decades could see a major increase in stock market returns.

It's technology that drives productivity, and we're poised for an era of exponential technology growth. In the next decade, we're going to see self-landing rockets making spaceflight cheap, self-driving cars deployed at scale, 3-D printing and robotics making it trivial to manufacture most consumer products, and CRISPR-based genetic therapy and RNA vaccines curing most diseases. Plus, with the proliferation of wind and solar, we'll have abundant cheap energy at a level we haven't seen since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

Possibly I'm being too optimistic. But markets are pretty good at making forecasts, and when the market stays at these P/E levels for this long, maybe it's not a fluke. Maybe it's a signal about how valuable it's going to be for the people who own the technology in the near future.




The future looks exciting.  But you can be certain political, social, and environmental issues will continue to provide plenty of bumps along the way. 


Alternative energy funds and ARK's disruptive innovation ETFs have sure gotten a lot of attention recently. 










couponvan

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4493 on: February 07, 2021, 01:45:27 PM »
I just crossed into the $2MM mark this week.  I FIREd at a bit over $1MM in July 2015 - so I got my 2nd million while not working in about 5.5 years. Crazy.

I am all in stocks (index funds), but have a pension (taking) and SS (not old enough to take yet) so those are my “bond” allocation.

How long for the next million or doubling??
I'm going to say 3 years the way you don't spend $!! Congrats!!

G-dog

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4494 on: February 07, 2021, 01:49:07 PM »
I just crossed into the $2MM mark this week.  I FIREd at a bit over $1MM in July 2015 - so I got my 2nd million while not working in about 5.5 years. Crazy.

I am all in stocks (index funds), but have a pension (taking) and SS (not old enough to take yet) so those are my “bond” allocation.

How long for the next million or doubling??
I'm going to say 3 years the way you don't spend $!! Congrats!!

Thanks!  When I can find people to fix things around the house, the floodgates will open!

couponvan

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4495 on: February 07, 2021, 02:00:32 PM »
I just crossed into the $2MM mark this week.  I FIREd at a bit over $1MM in July 2015 - so I got my 2nd million while not working in about 5.5 years. Crazy.

I am all in stocks (index funds), but have a pension (taking) and SS (not old enough to take yet) so those are my “bond” allocation.

How long for the next million or doubling??
I'm going to say 3 years the way you don't spend $!! Congrats!!

Thanks!  When I can find people to fix things around the house, the floodgates will open!
Just buy a new house with all that money! Oh wait. That plays into you not spending. lol  Your version of floodgates and mine are hugely different. 

swaneesr

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4496 on: February 07, 2021, 02:20:19 PM »
I just crossed into the $2MM mark this week.  I FIREd at a bit over $1MM in July 2015 - so I got my 2nd million while not working in about 5.5 years. Crazy.

I am all in stocks (index funds), but have a pension (taking) and SS (not old enough to take yet) so those are my “bond” allocation.

How long for the next million or doubling??
I'm going to say 3 years the way you don't spend $!! Congrats!!
Wow.  I hope this comes to pass.

For selfish reasons, sorry.  DW and I are very similar situation as G-dog and nearing retirement.

Swanee


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G-dog

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4497 on: February 07, 2021, 02:31:31 PM »
I just crossed into the $2MM mark this week.  I FIREd at a bit over $1MM in July 2015 - so I got my 2nd million while not working in about 5.5 years. Crazy.

I am all in stocks (index funds), but have a pension (taking) and SS (not old enough to take yet) so those are my “bond” allocation.

How long for the next million or doubling??
I'm going to say 3 years the way you don't spend $!! Congrats!!
Wow.  I hope this comes to pass.

For selfish reasons, sorry.  DW and I are very similar situation as G-dog and nearing retirement.

Swanee


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The markets are crazy - so who knows what will happen.  My portfolio sure has a life of its own though, even though I am not juicing it much. This has made it very clear to me that you don’t have to do everything perfectly (plenty of mistakes were and are being made), and it will still work.

rmorris50

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Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4498 on: February 08, 2021, 08:50:55 AM »
Crazy markets for sure. Last March our NW had dropped to 1.9m Today we have passed $2.7m and are marching onward


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Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #4499 on: February 08, 2021, 11:50:54 AM »
Crazy markets for sure. Last March our NW had dropped to 1.9m Today we have passed $2.7m and are marching onward


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Yep, from the March low the Vanguard Total market is up 80%.  Crazy to watch something that diversified almost double in a year.