Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 601822 times)

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3750 on: August 19, 2020, 09:11:11 AM »
Nibbled me some more to put in cash this morning but still 25% below my yearly set withdrawal. With Nasdaq and S&P hitting new highs and only 25 stocks hitting new highs made sense to sell some VTI now. Goes Higher still have room to take. This market it crazy. End of the shortest Bear ever. A lot of cash still on the sidelines so market could in reality still go a lot higher. Interesting times to say the least.

We still have about a million exposed to this market.   FOMO and greed keeps me in.  This economy will not stand on it's own anytime soon.  It's all about more stimulus (debt).  Who is gling to be the adult and take the punch bowl away?  Will the Biden administration put on big boy pants and focus on debt?  I doubt it.   So this works as long as it works.

Nobody will be focusing on the debt or deficit any time soon.   Republicans will keep taxes lower or take them even lower and fund more stimulus (money for nothing) and money shall continue to print to the sky.  If democrats take over then they will raise taxes across the board to fund about 30% of their agenda and more stimulus (money for nothing) so the other 70% will also require printing money to the sky. 

As an investor and FIRE person I have mixed feelings about each, on one hand low taxes and stimulus is good for markets so my stash will be ever larger (until its not), on the other the tax proposals from the dems will be bad for markets but if I get lower or even free expanded health care AND college for everyone (I have 3 kids 11-15) AND the tax rates only go up for really wealthy then maybe for me individually I actually do about the same from a WR view point.  Plus all that money I set aside for college is now mine again so maybe I end up with more, haha.

Crystal Ball Dream scenarios
Republicans Win - move all to equities, reps win and lower taxes even more and provides stimulus, markets get to even crazier levels.

Democrats Win - move all to bonds/cash, dems win, taxes go up, markets go down but still crazy levels bc just lost 16% of income to taxes, then buy back in.  Also get free health care and my kids get free college.   That all sounds nice.

Of course, I wouldn't be all stocks or all bonds/cash so I can't participate in the dreams.  But my portfolio is the most conservative its ever been so I am fairly hedged either way I suppose. 

BTW, I fully expect Biden to win and the house will certainly remain democrat but I am not sure (nobody is) about what will happen in the senate.   Personally I would like Biden to win and the senate to stay republican as I think some balance or discourse is good for everyone.   

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3751 on: August 19, 2020, 09:14:33 AM »
Nibbled me some more to put in cash this morning but still 25% below my yearly set withdrawal. With Nasdaq and S&P hitting new highs and only 25 stocks hitting new highs made sense to sell some VTI now. Goes Higher still have room to take. This market it crazy. End of the shortest Bear ever. A lot of cash still on the sidelines so market could in reality still go a lot higher. Interesting times to say the least.




After watching how slow VTI has recovered I can't help but reconsider the reasoning for choosing it over something like VUG or QQQ.  It seems like the bigger players have done so much better recently, actually the past 10 years according to portfoliovisulizer.com.

Hindsight is a bitch, but really its all about a handful of companies driving it, all of which are in VTI too and most are in SP 500 - really those handful of companies are 25% of SP 500

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3752 on: August 19, 2020, 09:39:40 AM »
No way would I work a thousand extra days I didn't need to. You could spend 77 days learning how turn your "jumbled mess into a paycheck replacement" and get the hell out of the rat race. Isn't that the whole point? It kinda sounds like you feel trapped, which might just be an illusion of your own making.

I guess I'm grasping for excuses.  August 1st 2020 is the day I became pension eligible.   In 2012 the company robbed most of the pension and extended employee medical insurance coverage to minimum age 55.  Also if you work till 55 then you can get your 401K without the 10 percent penality.  No need for 72T calculations.

When I was at your stage, I was combing through HR policies and benefits looking for any way to shorten my time at work.  It doesn't sound like you're too fed up from work yet, so that's a difference between my situation and yours.

However, you can maybe shave off some of those 1,077 days.

As lhamo pointed out, the no-penalty 401(k) rule is separation from service in the year in which you turn 55.  So depending on when your birthday is, you could retire on January 1st at 54-something and still use that rule.  If you haven't already, it would also behoove you to check your 401(k) plan documents to ensure that they will allow you to access your money on the schedule that works for you.  While federal law says they have to allow penalty-free withdrawals, some plans restrict the timing and amounts of your withdrawals.

You could also use up all your vacation and maybe even do a FMLA or personal leave in the months prior to the January 1st of the year in which you turn 55 to shorten it even more.  I did something like that where I did a personal leave of absence 10 weeks prior to my last juicy stock option vest.  I was still employed so the stock options were still intact.  You could do a similar thing with your 401(k) plan.

While 72(t) plans aren't common, the calculations are literally fifth grade math.  Maybe even fourth grade.  If you don't want to do the 72(t) for other reasons, that would make sense, but doing literally two minutes of calculations once a year doesn't seem like much of a reason.

 I knew that the year you turn 55 is what makes you qualified.  But for my company medical coverage I must work till 55.  My 7 weeks a year of paid time off can make that easier.
Hey @Bateaux, all of my comments were based solely on the fact that you clearly have a big-ass 'stache. This pension/benefits situation sheds a whole new light on things. I totally understand the importance of healthcare and the unwillingness to walk away from something you've worked so long to earn, i.e. the pension. My husband's in the same boat. I'm going to change my response from now on and I solemnly swear to stop nagging you about retiring. I encourage you to do everything in your power to make the next 1000+ days as carefree as possible.

Tl:Dr - No more RE shit from Dicey. I get it.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3753 on: August 19, 2020, 09:53:43 AM »

- SNIP -

Hindsight is a bitch, but really its all about a handful of companies driving it, all of which are in VTI too and most are in SP 500 - really those handful of companies are 25% of SP 500

I do not know what you people do, but here's what I see.

Looks like a bubble.  I've been hearing about Tesla.  They make a good product, I guess, but I don't see very many of them on the road.  There are no Tesla dealers around.  You can figure people are investing in the future, but in the future all the car companies will be selling more electric cars.  Maybe it is similar with those few other companies pushing the market up.

So you say - the government has been printing money and it has to go somewhere.  It goes into stocks. The stocks are a piece of a company.  The company is not worth as much as its stocks that are out there.  Looks like a bubble.

Some say there are really up to 30 percent of people out of work.  The U.S. economy shrank by 32.9 percent in the second three months of 2020. That's the worst quarter in history, according to data dating back to the 1940s.  Looks like a bubble.

I expect a drop, but will ride it out.  I expect positive changes after next November.

Ockhamist

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #3754 on: August 19, 2020, 10:24:07 AM »
I know a medical school professor who probably makes more than $400K a year. His two children go to medical schools with the maximum loans that they could get.

Why? because the loans could be forgiven in the future (by working at not-for-profit hospitals for a few years).


I am surprised the kids didnt go to school where he is a professor and get free College. I was always under the impression that was one of the biggest perks of being a professor.

That is not a standard benefit.   There are some colleges and universities where dependents get free tuition, but there are many where they do not not.   At my institution, as a professor, my kids can attend tuition-free, but there are other institutions in the area where dependents only receive a discount on tuition, and others where there are no tuition benefits at all.   Of the schools whose policies I know, fewer than half offer any dependent tuition benefit at all, though admittedly that is far from a scientific sample.

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3755 on: August 19, 2020, 10:27:23 AM »

- SNIP -

Hindsight is a bitch, but really its all about a handful of companies driving it, all of which are in VTI too and most are in SP 500 - really those handful of companies are 25% of SP 500

I do not know what you people do, but here's what I see.

Looks like a bubble.  I've been hearing about Tesla.  They make a good product, I guess, but I don't see very many of them on the road.  There are no Tesla dealers around.  You can figure people are investing in the future, but in the future all the car companies will be selling more electric cars.  Maybe it is similar with those few other companies pushing the market up.

So you say - the government has been printing money and it has to go somewhere.  It goes into stocks. The stocks are a piece of a company.  The company is not worth as much as its stocks that are out there.  Looks like a bubble.

Some say there are really up to 30 percent of people out of work.  The U.S. economy shrank by 32.9 percent in the second three months of 2020. That's the worst quarter in history, according to data dating back to the 1940s.  Looks like a bubble.

I expect a drop, but will ride it out.  I expect positive changes after next November.
OMG, in California, they're everywhere! And they have "dealerships" in malls and shopping centers. They typically have three vehicles in them. I think the one in my town is still closed due to the pandemic, but it's so low profile, it would be hard to tell.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3756 on: August 19, 2020, 10:57:58 AM »
Nibbled me some more to put in cash this morning but still 25% below my yearly set withdrawal. With Nasdaq and S&P hitting new highs and only 25 stocks hitting new highs made sense to sell some VTI now. Goes Higher still have room to take. This market it crazy. End of the shortest Bear ever. A lot of cash still on the sidelines so market could in reality still go a lot higher. Interesting times to say the least.

After watching how slow VTI has recovered I can't help but reconsider the reasoning for choosing it over something like VUG or QQQ.  It seems like the bigger players have done so much better recently, actually the past 10 years according to portfoliovisulizer.com.

Hindsight is a bitch, but really its all about a handful of companies driving it, all of which are in VTI too and most are in SP 500 - really those handful of companies are 25% of SP 500

I worried about this too, but looking at the data made me a little more comfortable.  The top 10 stocks making up the S&P500 index (weighing in at 27.1%), as of June 30, 2020, are:

MSFT   6%
AAPL   5.8% 
AMZN  4.5%
FB       2.1%
GOOGL 1.7%
GOOG   1.6%
JNJ       1.5%
BRK.B   1.4%
V          1.3%
PG        1.2%

The only one I really don't want to own so much of is Facebook, personally.  Now, this might change if TSLA is added to the index, but it will still be at a relatively small percentage if it happens.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2020, 11:00:26 AM by EscapeVelocity2020 »

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3757 on: August 19, 2020, 11:53:54 AM »

- SNIP -

Hindsight is a bitch, but really its all about a handful of companies driving it, all of which are in VTI too and most are in SP 500 - really those handful of companies are 25% of SP 500

I do not know what you people do, but here's what I see.

Looks like a bubble.  I've been hearing about Tesla.  They make a good product, I guess, but I don't see very many of them on the road.  There are no Tesla dealers around.  You can figure people are investing in the future, but in the future all the car companies will be selling more electric cars.  Maybe it is similar with those few other companies pushing the market up.

So you say - the government has been printing money and it has to go somewhere.  It goes into stocks. The stocks are a piece of a company.  The company is not worth as much as its stocks that are out there.  Looks like a bubble.

Some say there are really up to 30 percent of people out of work.  The U.S. economy shrank by 32.9 percent in the second three months of 2020. That's the worst quarter in history, according to data dating back to the 1940s.  Looks like a bubble.

I expect a drop, but will ride it out.  I expect positive changes after next November.

I kind of agree, feels bubble'ish but not quite there but it is all fed induced multiple expansion and bunch of millennials gambling at home.   While TSLA stock makes no sense to me at all nor did Amazon a long time ago or now for that matter) not seeing them on the road could be perceived as an opportunity for growth. 

Ton of people out of work but until recently many still got paid via UE and stimulus and about 65% made more being unemployed than they did while working.   There is a reason why all these retailers (Home Depot, Lowes, Target, Amazon) are blowing out their earnings estimates, some by 30% or more. Also bc people couldn't spend any money on travel, restaurants, small shops, last quarter.  Will these big retails grow 30% again, probably not.  I don't know how small business comes back though.

The GDP figure is irrelevant bc it was essentially a forced shut down not a natural recession - GDP in this quarter and especially the next few are far more important and will be more representative of the actual drop in GDP. 

I still feel like you do, haven't run for the hills but will maintain my conservative AA but I did shift about 5% of my portfolio from SP500 to SP500 value fund. 
« Last Edit: August 19, 2020, 11:56:38 AM by tooqk4u22 »

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3758 on: August 19, 2020, 12:04:35 PM »
Nibbled me some more to put in cash this morning but still 25% below my yearly set withdrawal. With Nasdaq and S&P hitting new highs and only 25 stocks hitting new highs made sense to sell some VTI now. Goes Higher still have room to take. This market it crazy. End of the shortest Bear ever. A lot of cash still on the sidelines so market could in reality still go a lot higher. Interesting times to say the least.

After watching how slow VTI has recovered I can't help but reconsider the reasoning for choosing it over something like VUG or QQQ.  It seems like the bigger players have done so much better recently, actually the past 10 years according to portfoliovisulizer.com.

Hindsight is a bitch, but really its all about a handful of companies driving it, all of which are in VTI too and most are in SP 500 - really those handful of companies are 25% of SP 500

I worried about this too, but looking at the data made me a little more comfortable.  The top 10 stocks making up the S&P500 index (weighing in at 27.1%), as of June 30, 2020, are:

MSFT   6%
AAPL   5.8% 
AMZN  4.5%
FB       2.1%
GOOGL 1.7%
GOOG   1.6%
JNJ       1.5%
BRK.B   1.4%
V          1.3%
PG        1.2%

The only one I really don't want to own so much of is Facebook, personally.  Now, this might change if TSLA is added to the index, but it will still be at a relatively small percentage if it happens.

The top 5 currently are about 25% of SP500 as most have run up a lot since 6/30.  But as you say, its not horrible but I personally were investing in individual stocks I don't think I would want any that are that much of my portfolio. Maybe not, maybe, not sure.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3759 on: August 19, 2020, 02:31:09 PM »
Nibbled me some more to put in cash this morning but still 25% below my yearly set withdrawal. With Nasdaq and S&P hitting new highs and only 25 stocks hitting new highs made sense to sell some VTI now. Goes Higher still have room to take. This market it crazy. End of the shortest Bear ever. A lot of cash still on the sidelines so market could in reality still go a lot higher. Interesting times to say the least.

We still have about a million exposed to this market.   FOMO and greed keeps me in.  This economy will not stand on it's own anytime soon.  It's all about more stimulus (debt).  Who is gling to be the adult and take the punch bowl away?  Will the Biden administration put on big boy pants and focus on debt?  I doubt it.   So this works as long as it works.

Nobody will be focusing on the debt or deficit any time soon.   Republicans will keep taxes lower or take them even lower and fund more stimulus (money for nothing) and money shall continue to print to the sky.  If democrats take over then they will raise taxes across the board to fund about 30% of their agenda and more stimulus (money for nothing) so the other 70% will also require printing money to the sky. 

As an investor and FIRE person I have mixed feelings about each, on one hand low taxes and stimulus is good for markets so my stash will be ever larger (until its not), on the other the tax proposals from the dems will be bad for markets but if I get lower or even free expanded health care AND college for everyone (I have 3 kids 11-15) AND the tax rates only go up for really wealthy then maybe for me individually I actually do about the same from a WR view point.  Plus all that money I set aside for college is now mine again so maybe I end up with more, haha.

Crystal Ball Dream scenarios
Republicans Win - move all to equities, reps win and lower taxes even more and provides stimulus, markets get to even crazier levels.

Democrats Win - move all to bonds/cash, dems win, taxes go up, markets go down but still crazy levels bc just lost 16% of income to taxes, then buy back in.  Also get free health care and my kids get free college.   That all sounds nice.

Of course, I wouldn't be all stocks or all bonds/cash so I can't participate in the dreams.  But my portfolio is the most conservative its ever been so I am fairly hedged either way I suppose. 

BTW, I fully expect Biden to win and the house will certainly remain democrat but I am not sure (nobody is) about what will happen in the senate.   Personally I would like Biden to win and the senate to stay republican as I think some balance or discourse is good for everyone.   

Great analysis. 

UnleashHell

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3760 on: August 19, 2020, 02:38:22 PM »
why the assumption that markets go down with a democratic president?
Did you check that against whats happened historically?

I think the markets go up with stability.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3761 on: August 19, 2020, 02:38:44 PM »
No way would I work a thousand extra days I didn't need to. You could spend 77 days learning how turn your "jumbled mess into a paycheck replacement" and get the hell out of the rat race. Isn't that the whole point? It kinda sounds like you feel trapped, which might just be an illusion of your own making.

I guess I'm grasping for excuses.  August 1st 2020 is the day I became pension eligible.   In 2012 the company robbed most of the pension and extended employee medical insurance coverage to minimum age 55.  Also if you work till 55 then you can get your 401K without the 10 percent penality.  No need for 72T calculations.

When I was at your stage, I was combing through HR policies and benefits looking for any way to shorten my time at work.  It doesn't sound like you're too fed up from work yet, so that's a difference between my situation and yours.

However, you can maybe shave off some of those 1,077 days.

As lhamo pointed out, the no-penalty 401(k) rule is separation from service in the year in which you turn 55.  So depending on when your birthday is, you could retire on January 1st at 54-something and still use that rule.  If you haven't already, it would also behoove you to check your 401(k) plan documents to ensure that they will allow you to access your money on the schedule that works for you.  While federal law says they have to allow penalty-free withdrawals, some plans restrict the timing and amounts of your withdrawals.

You could also use up all your vacation and maybe even do a FMLA or personal leave in the months prior to the January 1st of the year in which you turn 55 to shorten it even more.  I did something like that where I did a personal leave of absence 10 weeks prior to my last juicy stock option vest.  I was still employed so the stock options were still intact.  You could do a similar thing with your 401(k) plan.

While 72(t) plans aren't common, the calculations are literally fifth grade math.  Maybe even fourth grade.  If you don't want to do the 72(t) for other reasons, that would make sense, but doing literally two minutes of calculations once a year doesn't seem like much of a reason.

 I knew that the year you turn 55 is what makes you qualified.  But for my company medical coverage I must work till 55.  My 7 weeks a year of paid time off can make that easier.
Hey @Bateaux, all of my comments were based solely on the fact that you clearly have a big-ass 'stache. This pension/benefits situation sheds a whole new light on things. I totally understand the importance of healthcare and the unwillingness to walk away from something you've worked so long to earn, i.e. the pension. My husband's in the same boat. I'm going to change my response from now on and I solemnly swear to stop nagging you about retiring. I encourage you to do everything in your power to make the next 1000+ days as carefree as possible.

Tl:Dr - No more RE shit from Dicey. I get it.

Dicey you are wonderful and never a nag.  I'm just glad you are here and put extreme value on evey word you type.
I probably put a bit too much emotion into what I share here.  I could keep things more empirical,  but sometimes i just cast it out unfiltered.   This thread with the expressed thoughts of the people here are a very important part of my life.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3762 on: August 19, 2020, 02:40:20 PM »

- SNIP -

Hindsight is a bitch, but really its all about a handful of companies driving it, all of which are in VTI too and most are in SP 500 - really those handful of companies are 25% of SP 500

I do not know what you people do, but here's what I see.

I share your outlook.

Looks like a bubble.  I've been hearing about Tesla.  They make a good product, I guess, but I don't see very many of them on the road.  There are no Tesla dealers around.  You can figure people are investing in the future, but in the future all the car companies will be selling more electric cars.  Maybe it is similar with those few other companies pushing the market up.

So you say - the government has been printing money and it has to go somewhere.  It goes into stocks. The stocks are a piece of a company.  The company is not worth as much as its stocks that are out there.  Looks like a bubble.

Some say there are really up to 30 percent of people out of work.  The U.S. economy shrank by 32.9 percent in the second three months of 2020. That's the worst quarter in history, according to data dating back to the 1940s.  Looks like a bubble.

I expect a drop, but will ride it out.  I expect positive changes after next November.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3763 on: August 19, 2020, 02:45:54 PM »
why the assumption that markets go down with a democratic president?
Did you check that against whats happened historically?

I think the markets go up with stability.

Going back a hundred years I think the GDP and stock market favor the democratic terms.

By the way, glad to see you posting here.


tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3764 on: August 19, 2020, 03:56:03 PM »

why the assumption that markets go down with a democratic president?
Did you check that against whats happened historically?

I think the markets go up with stability.

If that were always true the markets wouldn't be where they are right now, let alone any time over the last 3 1/2 years. 

Aside from that observation, stability does matter but if we get drastic changes to tax code and increased regulation (both of which are part of the platform) then markets will be certainly impacted.   Also remember that when the MAGA tax cuts (specifically corporate) it resulted in lower taxes and net incomes of the public companies increasing by about 16%, that immediately translated to market gains.  The opposite would be equally true if it goes in the other direction (absent significant economic growth to overcome the increased taxes).



Going back a hundred years I think the GDP and stock market favor the democratic terms.

By the way, glad to see you posting here.

I believe that is true as it relates to correlation with president terms.  But causation isn't really known (and probably can't)   I think it would be more complex than that as most agendas have don't get implemented right away and typically have some time to take affect.   

Not to mention the cyclical aspect of the markets and timing of when presidents start office.

Regardless, my comments are more about the math of agendas than the parties themselves.   

Under Trump we have had a great stock market (except for the that 6 month sabbatical known as covid) but SP500 earnings really haven't moved under him except for what is due to the tax cuts.  The rest is due to low interest rates driving multiple expansion - not real healthy. 

Before Trump you had Obama and he started at the markets were at the bottom after the financial crisis, so had nowhere to go but up (at least during first term).

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3765 on: August 19, 2020, 09:08:31 PM »
Nibbled me some more to put in cash this morning but still 25% below my yearly set withdrawal. With Nasdaq and S&P hitting new highs and only 25 stocks hitting new highs made sense to sell some VTI now. Goes Higher still have room to take. This market it crazy. End of the shortest Bear ever. A lot of cash still on the sidelines so market could in reality still go a lot higher. Interesting times to say the least.

We still have about a million exposed to this market.   FOMO and greed keeps me in.  This economy will not stand on it's own anytime soon.  It's all about more stimulus (debt).  Who is gling to be the adult and take the punch bowl away?  Will the Biden administration put on big boy pants and focus on debt?  I doubt it.   So this works as long as it works.

Nobody will be focusing on the debt or deficit any time soon.   Republicans will keep taxes lower or take them even lower and fund more stimulus (money for nothing) and money shall continue to print to the sky.  If democrats take over then they will raise taxes across the board to fund about 30% of their agenda and more stimulus (money for nothing) so the other 70% will also require printing money to the sky. 

As an investor and FIRE person I have mixed feelings about each, on one hand low taxes and stimulus is good for markets so my stash will be ever larger (until its not), on the other the tax proposals from the dems will be bad for markets but if I get lower or even free expanded health care AND college for everyone (I have 3 kids 11-15) AND the tax rates only go up for really wealthy then maybe for me individually I actually do about the same from a WR view point.  Plus all that money I set aside for college is now mine again so maybe I end up with more, haha.

Crystal Ball Dream scenarios
Republicans Win - move all to equities, reps win and lower taxes even more and provides stimulus, markets get to even crazier levels.

Democrats Win - move all to bonds/cash, dems win, taxes go up, markets go down but still crazy levels bc just lost 16% of income to taxes, then buy back in.  Also get free health care and my kids get free college.   That all sounds nice.

Of course, I wouldn't be all stocks or all bonds/cash so I can't participate in the dreams.  But my portfolio is the most conservative its ever been so I am fairly hedged either way I suppose. 

BTW, I fully expect Biden to win and the house will certainly remain democrat but I am not sure (nobody is) about what will happen in the senate.   Personally I would like Biden to win and the senate to stay republican as I think some balance or discourse is good for everyone.   

Interesting analysis. Iím not placing bets on the outcome of the election. Since I donít vote and am well known for disliking the two factions with a purple passion, I think itís pretty safe to say I donít have a dog in the fight.

I wouldnít anticipate satisfactory or even competent delivery of ďcollege for allĒ or expanded medical care, so I donít think about it much.

I would expect the markets to continue as they have under a re-elected Trump. Under a Biden administration, I would expect some drop when the initial tax hikes surface. But thatíll change once the financial sector figures out itís all show and no substance. 

I donít see the election making a difference in my investing except at the fringes. Iím full speed ahead on DCAing into international equities. I might rotate a bit into US equities if the prices become more reasonable.

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3766 on: August 19, 2020, 09:54:38 PM »
Nibbled me some more to put in cash this morning but still 25% below my yearly set withdrawal. With Nasdaq and S&P hitting new highs and only 25 stocks hitting new highs made sense to sell some VTI now. Goes Higher still have room to take. This market it crazy. End of the shortest Bear ever. A lot of cash still on the sidelines so market could in reality still go a lot higher. Interesting times to say the least.

We still have about a million exposed to this market.   FOMO and greed keeps me in.  This economy will not stand on it's own anytime soon.  It's all about more stimulus (debt).  Who is gling to be the adult and take the punch bowl away?  Will the Biden administration put on big boy pants and focus on debt?  I doubt it.   So this works as long as it works.

Nobody will be focusing on the debt or deficit any time soon.   Republicans will keep taxes lower or take them even lower and fund more stimulus (money for nothing) and money shall continue to print to the sky.  If democrats take over then they will raise taxes across the board to fund about 30% of their agenda and more stimulus (money for nothing) so the other 70% will also require printing money to the sky. 

As an investor and FIRE person I have mixed feelings about each, on one hand low taxes and stimulus is good for markets so my stash will be ever larger (until its not), on the other the tax proposals from the dems will be bad for markets but if I get lower or even free expanded health care AND college for everyone (I have 3 kids 11-15) AND the tax rates only go up for really wealthy then maybe for me individually I actually do about the same from a WR view point.  Plus all that money I set aside for college is now mine again so maybe I end up with more, haha.

Crystal Ball Dream scenarios
Republicans Win - move all to equities, reps win and lower taxes even more and provides stimulus, markets get to even crazier levels.

Democrats Win - move all to bonds/cash, dems win, taxes go up, markets go down but still crazy levels bc just lost 16% of income to taxes, then buy back in.  Also get free health care and my kids get free college.   That all sounds nice.

Of course, I wouldn't be all stocks or all bonds/cash so I can't participate in the dreams.  But my portfolio is the most conservative its ever been so I am fairly hedged either way I suppose. 

BTW, I fully expect Biden to win and the house will certainly remain democrat but I am not sure (nobody is) about what will happen in the senate.   Personally I would like Biden to win and the senate to stay republican as I think some balance or discourse is good for everyone.   

Interesting analysis. Iím not placing bets on the outcome of the election. Since I donít vote and am well known for disliking the two factions with a purple passion, I think itís pretty safe to say I donít have a dog in the fight.

I wouldnít anticipate satisfactory or even competent delivery of ďcollege for allĒ or expanded medical care, so I donít think about it much.

I would expect the markets to continue as they have under a re-elected Trump. Under a Biden administration, I would expect some drop when the initial tax hikes surface. But thatíll change once the financial sector figures out itís all show and no substance. 

I donít see the election making a difference in my investing except at the fringes. Iím full speed ahead on DCAing into international equities. I might rotate a bit into US equities if the prices become more reasonable.

I did say it was dream scenario on either side, not what I expect.  I already said what I expected to be the political outcome, but I fully expect further shit show and no increased medical or college for all.   I do expect more taxes, but that will be pressed by the fact that our economy is still in the shitter so the ambitions to raise taxes and further stymie the economy will have to be deferred for a bit.   

On the other hand, if I am wrong and trump prevails then yeah it will be business as usual but we will have ever increasing foreign relations issues and increasing military tensions with said foreinn relations.   And yeah, further tax cuts and lower interest rates won't solve a damn thing other than f'ing us further in the future.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3767 on: August 19, 2020, 09:57:58 PM »
I predict some improvement in medicine.  People are mad enough about the health industry in the US that there has to be a bone or two thrown to the general populace.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3768 on: August 19, 2020, 10:20:52 PM »
I predict some improvement in medicine.  People are mad enough about the health industry in the US that there has to be a bone or two thrown to the general populace.

Hmm.. current efforts by the Trumpsters would seem to imply otherwise!

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3769 on: August 20, 2020, 04:01:41 AM »
I predict some improvement in medicine.  People are mad enough about the health industry in the US that there has to be a bone or two thrown to the general populace.

Hmm.. current efforts by the Trumpsters would seem to imply otherwise!
Nibbled me some more to put in cash this morning but still 25% below my yearly set withdrawal. With Nasdaq and S&P hitting new highs and only 25 stocks hitting new highs made sense to sell some VTI now. Goes Higher still have room to take. This market it crazy. End of the shortest Bear ever. A lot of cash still on the sidelines so market could in reality still go a lot higher. Interesting times to say the least.

We still have about a million exposed to this market.   FOMO and greed keeps me in.  This economy will not stand on it's own anytime soon.  It's all about more stimulus (debt).  Who is gling to be the adult and take the punch bowl away?  Will the Biden administration put on big boy pants and focus on debt?  I doubt it.   So this works as long as it works.

Nobody will be focusing on the debt or deficit any time soon.   Republicans will keep taxes lower or take them even lower and fund more stimulus (money for nothing) and money shall continue to print to the sky.  If democrats take over then they will raise taxes across the board to fund about 30% of their agenda and more stimulus (money for nothing) so the other 70% will also require printing money to the sky. 

As an investor and FIRE person I have mixed feelings about each, on one hand low taxes and stimulus is good for markets so my stash will be ever larger (until its not), on the other the tax proposals from the dems will be bad for markets but if I get lower or even free expanded health care AND college for everyone (I have 3 kids 11-15) AND the tax rates only go up for really wealthy then maybe for me individually I actually do about the same from a WR view point.  Plus all that money I set aside for college is now mine again so maybe I end up with more, haha.

Crystal Ball Dream scenarios
Republicans Win - move all to equities, reps win and lower taxes even more and provides stimulus, markets get to even crazier levels.

Democrats Win - move all to bonds/cash, dems win, taxes go up, markets go down but still crazy levels bc just lost 16% of income to taxes, then buy back in.  Also get free health care and my kids get free college.   That all sounds nice.

Of course, I wouldn't be all stocks or all bonds/cash so I can't participate in the dreams.  But my portfolio is the most conservative its ever been so I am fairly hedged either way I suppose. 

BTW, I fully expect Biden to win and the house will certainly remain democrat but I am not sure (nobody is) about what will happen in the senate.   Personally I would like Biden to win and the senate to stay republican as I think some balance or discourse is good for everyone.   

Interesting analysis. Iím not placing bets on the outcome of the election. Since I donít vote and am well known for disliking the two factions with a purple passion, I think itís pretty safe to say I donít have a dog in the fight.

I wouldnít anticipate satisfactory or even competent delivery of ďcollege for allĒ or expanded medical care, so I donít think about it much.

I would expect the markets to continue as they have under a re-elected Trump. Under a Biden administration, I would expect some drop when the initial tax hikes surface. But thatíll change once the financial sector figures out itís all show and no substance. 

I donít see the election making a difference in my investing except at the fringes. Iím full speed ahead on DCAing into international equities. I might rotate a bit into US equities if the prices become more reasonable.

I did say it was dream scenario on either side, not what I expect.  I already said what I expected to be the political outcome, but I fully expect further shit show and no increased medical or college for all.   I do expect more taxes, but that will be pressed by the fact that our economy is still in the shitter so the ambitions to raise taxes and further stymie the economy will have to be deferred for a bit.   

On the other hand, if I am wrong and trump prevails then yeah it will be business as usual but we will have ever increasing foreign relations issues and increasing military tensions with said foreinn relations.   And yeah, further tax cuts and lower interest rates won't solve a damn thing other than f'ing us further in the future.


IMO I think it really is going to depend on Covid more than the election. There is way to much money on the sidelines waiting to be invested and so many people have been adding to that money moving to cash. The Robinhood traders and the stock splits by Apple and now Teslas and expected others will imo keep driving the Nasdaq till it doesnt BUT there are still sectors that are really beaten down. I think there will be opportunities /dips but not one of 30% or more unless Covid really hits us hard again. People want in the market. Over the next two years I would not be surprised if we get to S&P 3750-4,000.
As far as Tesla goes I agree its similar to the likes of Amazon but its run way faster.  I too live within 30 miles of one large city and 100 from Chicago. I see a couple here and there but Tesla unlike Amazon is going to be facing alot more competition within the next 5 years and some of the domestic manufactures are coming up with some pretty great cars. Having said that I would never short Tesla. Like Apple started its Cult like and he is a great innovator and I fully expect in history he will be remembered for that more than his cars but a wide range of products that come from his innovations.  Apple will own the Phone market for another 10 years, Facebook and Netflix I think are most Vulnerable , Google can do so many things . Prescription drug manufacturing to at least some degree imo will return back to the U S and where I live there are jobs everywhere. Companies have also been slowly working minimum wages up, robotics in and the housing boom is going to continue as long as interest rates and inventories are what they are. So i guess that would be my crystal ball no matter who is elected. The only difference in my view is how big the bumps are in the market climb. But again if we have a big fall breakout with Covid and still have not made more ground with medicine be it a  vaccine or helping with symptoms then it will be longer. The good hopefully out of all this is we will be better prepared for the next one and will of all learned and continue to practice smarter health/personal hygiene as a society.

UnleashHell

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3770 on: August 20, 2020, 05:45:06 AM »
why the assumption that markets go down with a democratic president?
Did you check that against whats happened historically?

I think the markets go up with stability.

Going back a hundred years I think the GDP and stock market favor the democratic terms.

By the way, glad to see you posting here.
I'd be interested to see the markets in the 2 years after an election but with the senate and house holding as well as the president. Obviously the more influence a party has the easier it is to get their policies put into law.

and thank. I've always hung here. not rightfully on my own but not far off when adding in my other half.

The dilemmas and thought processes in this group are ones I'm close to facing. theres a lot of interesting dynamics and discussions here.

Such as moving to , or near, the county you are looking at within a few years. :D 
I'm just south now so very familiar with some of the interesting parts of FL life..

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3771 on: August 20, 2020, 05:52:42 PM »


Interesting analysis. Iím not placing bets on the outcome of the election. Since I donít vote and am well known for disliking the two factions with a purple passion, I think itís pretty safe to say I donít have a dog in the fight.

I wouldnít anticipate satisfactory or even competent delivery of ďcollege for allĒ or expanded medical care, so I donít think about it much.

I would expect the markets to continue as they have under a re-elected Trump. Under a Biden administration, I would expect some drop when the initial tax hikes surface. But thatíll change once the financial sector figures out itís all show and no substance. 

I donít see the election making a difference in my investing except at the fringes. Iím full speed ahead on DCAing into international equities. I might rotate a bit into US equities if the prices become more reasonable.

I did say it was dream scenario on either side, not what I expect.  I already said what I expected to be the political outcome, but I fully expect further shit show and no increased medical or college for all.   I do expect more taxes, but that will be pressed by the fact that our economy is still in the shitter so the ambitions to raise taxes and further stymie the economy will have to be deferred for a bit.   

On the other hand, if I am wrong and trump prevails then yeah it will be business as usual but we will have ever increasing foreign relations issues and increasing military tensions with said foreinn relations.   And yeah, further tax cuts and lower interest rates won't solve a damn thing other than f'ing us further in the future.

Interesting expansion of your views, and thanks for taking the time to respond.

Since weíre amongst friends, how about we up the ante a bit and get to a couple of the really uncomfortable questions?

Question 1: are we talking about a failing state?
Question 2 : if yes, or even if no, how is/ should that impact your life/ investing strategy?

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3772 on: August 20, 2020, 06:43:25 PM »
If Trump wins the election I want to get a significant portion of our assets out of the reach of the US government, in case I need to leave the country.


GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3773 on: August 20, 2020, 07:55:01 PM »
If Trump wins the election I want to get a significant portion of our assets out of the reach of the US government, in case I need to leave the country.


I still can't believe we're living this nightmare.  If November delivers 4 more MAGA years we'll be joining you.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3774 on: August 20, 2020, 08:15:57 PM »
If Trump wins the election I want to get a significant portion of our assets out of the reach of the US government, in case I need to leave the country.


I still can't believe we're living this nightmare.  If November delivers 4 more MAGA years we'll be joining you.

We all have the power to leave and live wherever they will take us.  But is it better in other places?  I'm not well traveled.  I'm asking that now.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3775 on: August 20, 2020, 08:27:24 PM »
Iíll weigh in.
Question 1: are we talking about a failing state?

A: sadly my answer is yes. A culmination of numerous factors, an education system that has been delivering subpar results for 40 years, a toxic political duopoly, a shift in demography towards lower fertility, wealth inequality, stagnating life expectancies, a perpetual victimhood culture, etc. People tend to look at the recent and dramatic rather than the underlying causes.

Question 2 : if yes, or even if no, how is/ should that impact your life/ investing strategy?

A: I have no plans to leave the US based on which idiot is elected in November. This is my home and the politicians can perform impossible and unnatural acts on each other with my regards. Investment wise, Iím already very much into overseas equities. I plan to stay the course. At some point I would like to at least consider diversification into more US equities, but Iím in no rush. Weíll see how things develop. Itís probably premature to be thinking about more dramatic strategies.

I think where the great investments will be are in those things that make us more resilient. Skills, things that help us be more self-sufficient, disaster prep, interpersonal networks, etc. Those sorts of things tend to be a win regardless.

deborah

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3776 on: August 20, 2020, 08:32:22 PM »
If Trump wins the election I want to get a significant portion of our assets out of the reach of the US government, in case I need to leave the country.


I still can't believe we're living this nightmare.  If November delivers 4 more MAGA years we'll be joining you.

We all have the power to leave and live wherever they will take us.  But is it better in other places?  I'm not well traveled.  I'm asking that now.
Each country largely emphasises what its citizens (or powerful people) have decided are important to them. As a result EVERY country is better than all other places to some of the people who live there. Of course, things like family, existing friends, and your local culture are unique to where you live, and make it better than other places in many ways. It is arrogant to think that  your own country is superior to all others. Every country has some things that are superior, and some that arenít.

There are many lists of good countries. Depending on what that particular list emphasises, the Nordic countries usually rate at the top, along with some other Western European countries, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3777 on: August 20, 2020, 09:07:31 PM »
If Trump wins the election I want to get a significant portion of our assets out of the reach of the US government, in case I need to leave the country.


I still can't believe we're living this nightmare.  If November delivers 4 more MAGA years we'll be joining you.

We all have the power to leave and live wherever they will take us.  But is it better in other places?  I'm not well traveled.  I'm asking that now.

I want enough of my assets out of the American govt reach if Trump wins because we might not have a Republic in another 4 years if he stays in power.   He's already eroded a lot of the safeguards we counted on.    He caters to and draws strength from the Nazis, white supremacists, KKK, and pretty much every other form of racist or religious or misogynistic bigot we have.

I won't be planning to move out of the country, but if I have to flee, I don't want to be destitute if I do.

The far right in other dictatorships have sent out death squads to kill folks who didn't agree with them.   I'll end up on someone's kill list because I don't hide my disgust, disdain and disagreement with the alt-right folks I come across.      I have a real talent for being memorably sarcastic to people who support oppression and hate groups.    And don't kid yourself, we have those aplenty in the USA.

Arthur Jones, a known Nazi, received over 56,000 votes from Republicans in the 2018 election in just one Illinois legislative district.    56,000!   In ONE district.     By the way, that's not me, a liberal, calling Jones a Nazi.  That's the Illinois Republican party calling the fellow a Nazi.  To their credit the Illinois GOP set up a phone blitz to ask people not to vote for Jones, but he still got 25% of the votes in his district.

We've got alt-Right Q-Anon conspiracy crazy folks openly running for office.   We've got Republicans calling for a religious race war winning re-elections.   That party is out of control.

Thankfully, there are good republicans out there who recognize the danger.   People like our ex presidents who are endorsing Trump's opponent.   People like those running and supporting The Lincoln Project.

Sorry guys, it's not all just about the money.    Not all the money in the world would entice me to make my home in Nazi Germany or Mussolini's Italy or Franco's Spain.   

If we have to run, I want to be ready to go and not be poor when we get there. 

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3778 on: August 20, 2020, 09:26:37 PM »
If Trump wins the election I want to get a significant portion of our assets out of the reach of the US government, in case I need to leave the country.


I still can't believe we're living this nightmare.  If November delivers 4 more MAGA years we'll be joining you.

We all have the power to leave and live wherever they will take us.  But is it better in other places?  I'm not well traveled.  I'm asking that now.

Not really. Your US passport isnít very useful right now due to COVID. And long term stays abroad require visas and permissions which are expensive and sometimes difficult to obtain.

As for whether itís ďbetterĒ living abroad, my personal experience is ďit depends.Ē  Whatís important to you? Is it food? Then overseas is definitely better. Is it the right to keep and bear arms? Then overseas definitely isnít better. Economic opportunity is a mixed bag, as is taxation. So is personal freedom. Just depends on the country and whatís relatively important to you. Much as I love it, I would have a hard time living in the UK due to their speech restrictions. I wouldnít be able to be an Aussie as voting there is mandatory (hello jail). Southern Europe would be fine except for the lack of economic opportunity, varying levels of corruption and taxes.

There is no such thing as utopia short of the grave. For me, parts of the US are about as close as I expect to find.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3779 on: August 20, 2020, 09:56:00 PM »
Not really. Your US passport isnít very useful right now due to COVID. And long term stays abroad require visas and permissions which are expensive and sometimes difficult to obtain.
There are lots of ways to leave and enter a country if one is determined enough.   

There is no such thing as utopia short of the grave. For me, parts of the US are about as close as I expect to find.

Not being tortured and murdered by fascist death squads ranks pretty high on my list.

I won't be in the first wave of folks to be rounded up, I don't overrate my importance.   But they'll get to me if they take over and I'll want significant financial resources accessible to me and not the US government if that happens.



deborah

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3780 on: August 20, 2020, 10:15:04 PM »
I've never heard of an Aussie being put in jail for not voting - the fine is $20. Here's what actually happened to someone who didn't pay the fine, and was taken to court -

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-08/what-happens-when-you-dont-vote-in-a-federal-election/8786684

$303 (the maximum the court could give him) which he is paying in $5 installments.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3781 on: August 21, 2020, 12:15:00 AM »
Not really. Your US passport isnít very useful right now due to COVID. And long term stays abroad require visas and permissions which are expensive and sometimes difficult to obtain.
There are lots of ways to leave and enter a country if one is determined enough.   

There is no such thing as utopia short of the grave. For me, parts of the US are about as close as I expect to find.

Not being tortured and murdered by fascist death squads ranks pretty high on my list.

Especially not the one engineered by the CIA in most of South America..

https://www.mintpressnews.com/the-school-of-the-americas-is-still-exporting-death-squads/204655/

And As Dick Cheney's position on torture is in this article.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/12/dick-cheney-defends-the-torture-innocents/383741/

So yeah you're right, you might actually have to leave the country to be rounded up and tortured by the US Government

Gives me all kinds of comfort!

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3782 on: August 21, 2020, 04:29:07 AM »
I really don't think I want to run.  I think I will stay and fight.  Maybe there is a second civil war to come and blood is required to keep our liberty.  I'll fight.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3783 on: August 21, 2020, 06:26:43 AM »
I really don't think I want to run.  I think I will stay and fight.  Maybe there is a second civil war to come and blood is required to keep our liberty.  I'll fight.

It does seem at times it could come to that. Like you I am not leaving. Hopefully all these clowns on both sides will get there shit together but it begins with we the people. Alot of what goes on today has gone on forever its just more sensationalized with the press and all but there sure are alot of other things that are new. I have always felt the problem is to many people don't take the time to really investigate candidates from local to national elections and just vote from the way they were brought up, the media, friends etc...

Sure would be nice if there was a way you walk up to the voting both and it spit out 1 of say 20 random 10 question tests you had to pass first before you could vote. Like who is running etc.. just simple questions. But I am sure that would break some law or never would happen but it would sure make a difference if people knew what they were voting for.

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3784 on: August 21, 2020, 07:32:10 AM »
I really don't think I want to run.  I think I will stay and fight.  Maybe there is a second civil war to come and blood is required to keep our liberty.  I'll fight.




I've seen enough Civil War photos, graveyards, and heard the horrific stories of what it was like with the primitive weapons of the day.   I'm not sure you've fully considered what a modern civil war might be like. 


I'll vote & willing to protest for our democracy, but I'll pass on killing, dying, raping, and starving for it. 

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3785 on: August 21, 2020, 07:43:56 AM »
If Trump wins the election I want to get a significant portion of our assets out of the reach of the US government, in case I need to leave the country.


I still can't believe we're living this nightmare.  If November delivers 4 more MAGA years we'll be joining you.

Iím in federal law enforcement, I seriously wonder if 4 more years will put me in a conscious objector position. 

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3786 on: August 21, 2020, 07:49:33 AM »
I really don't think I want to run.  I think I will stay and fight.  Maybe there is a second civil war to come and blood is required to keep our liberty.  I'll fight.




I've seen enough Civil War photos, graveyards, and heard the horrific stories of what it was like with the primitive weapons of the day.   I'm not sure you've fully considered what a modern civil war might be like. 


I'll vote & willing to protest for our democracy, but I'll pass on killing, dying, raping, and starving for it.

Iíve been to places where there have been recent civil wars, Sudan, Lebanon, not a good thing to happen.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3787 on: August 21, 2020, 07:57:57 AM »
Iím in federal law enforcement, I seriously wonder if 4 more years will put me in a conscious objector position.

Depending on what agency you work for and what you've been assigned to do, it may be long past time for that.

For example, there's a special place in hell for the people mistreating immigrant kids in the camps.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3788 on: August 21, 2020, 08:19:32 AM »
Next week is the Republican Convention.  I will be very interested in the "sell."  There are many people herein that will be tough customers.  I'll bet they don't mention the kids in cages thing.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3789 on: August 21, 2020, 08:48:18 AM »
Next week is the Republican Convention.  I will be very interested in the "sell."  There are many people herein that will be tough customers.  I'll bet they don't mention the kids in cages thing.

Probably not.. I mean how will that go down with all those "suburban housewives"?

Maybe they will crow about the 4 miles of extra border wall they've built perhaps?

LWYRUP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3790 on: August 21, 2020, 09:11:31 AM »
Iíll weigh in.
Question 1: are we talking about a failing state?

A: sadly my answer is yes. A culmination of numerous factors, an education system that has been delivering subpar results for 40 years, a toxic political duopoly, a shift in demography towards lower fertility, wealth inequality, stagnating life expectancies, a perpetual victimhood culture, etc. People tend to look at the recent and dramatic rather than the underlying causes.

Question 2 : if yes, or even if no, how is/ should that impact your life/ investing strategy?

A: I have no plans to leave the US based on which idiot is elected in November. This is my home and the politicians can perform impossible and unnatural acts on each other with my regards. Investment wise, Iím already very much into overseas equities. I plan to stay the course. At some point I would like to at least consider diversification into more US equities, but Iím in no rush. Weíll see how things develop. Itís probably premature to be thinking about more dramatic strategies.

I think where the great investments will be are in those things that make us more resilient. Skills, things that help us be more self-sufficient, disaster prep, interpersonal networks, etc. Those sorts of things tend to be a win regardless.

Random smorgasboard of quick thoughts:

1.  I rebalanced today from what was drifting towards 60/40 US vs. World to 50/50 and upped bonds from about 8% to closer to 12%.  Just a slight course correction, but since we are back at all time highs despite the economy being in shambles, pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered and all that.

2.  I don't know if the USA is becoming a "failed state."  I think we are definitely in decline.  But things have looked rough at various points in history (was just reading about a miner's riot in WV that turned basically into a real gun battle between 6,000 miners and 2,000 mercenaries with federal troops monitoring, etc., let's not even get into historical instabilities in Europe).  So I'm hoping this is mostly sound and fury but I don't have a crystal ball. 

3.  My family is from Eastern Europe and fled.  Going to second the idea that war is really awful and that I would advise people against becoming keyboard warriors and putting fuel on the fire.  Also going to note that the deaths from left-wing totalitarianism were many multiples of the deaths from right-wing totalitarianism in the 20th century.  And plenty of mass murders of religious people by non-religious people, btw.  Solzhenitsyn should really be required reading to graduate from high school.  Anyways, keep some perspective.  Classical liberal democracy where you argue with your opponents with words instead of try to throw them in jail or kill them is pretty cool!  It was a pretty great development even if it seems messy at times.  Let's try to keep it up.

4.  I have an expired European passport (but none for my family) and a handgun permit but no gun.  So I dunno.  I am definitely a believer that planning is prudent but I haven't prioritized it yet, which yeah is definitely running a risk because if there's instability sometimes it comes on real quick.  Anything that happens in the next year I'm just going to be waiting it out in my house trying to keep the kids safe.  If it looks like endemic issues then I might start to put plans in motion to have alternative options. 

5.  These divisions are really a failure of the elites.  Why?  Unpopular opinion, most people have a... limited understanding of things.  In a health society, the elite try to manage the passions of the mob and have more elevated conversations amongst themselves, and also work to create a system in which a large number of people are reasonably happy enough to buy into the system.  U.S. elites have seem to failed on a large number of fronts, and so now political momentum and increasingly policy is being driven by the mob.  This point could really be a whole book, honestly. 

6.  I'd rather meet my maker than violate my conscience (in major ways, of course).  So at some point I'm just going to live my life the best I can and leave my fate as beyond my pay grade.  The world has always been a fallen place and human nature has always been what it is. 


Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3791 on: August 21, 2020, 09:28:45 AM »
Iím in federal law enforcement, I seriously wonder if 4 more years will put me in a conscious objector position.

Depending on what agency you work for and what you've been assigned to do, it may be long past time for that.

For example, there's a special place in hell for the people mistreating immigrant kids in the camps.

So far my agency hasnít had issues, but we have had problems in the past, (long ago and in the past 20 years since Iíve been on the job) that give us the ability to say, um thatís not legal (read I know people personally named in lawsuits about that).

ETA:  and by not legal I mean the law we were working under was determined to not be constitutional.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2020, 09:41:46 AM by Fomerly known as something »

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3792 on: August 21, 2020, 09:31:01 AM »
Another daily melt up....Tesla and Apple crazy! among others

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3793 on: August 21, 2020, 09:40:47 AM »
Iíll weigh in.
Question 1: are we talking about a failing state?

A: sadly my answer is yes. A culmination of numerous factors, an education system that has been delivering subpar results for 40 years, a toxic political duopoly, a shift in demography towards lower fertility, wealth inequality, stagnating life expectancies, a perpetual victimhood culture, etc. People tend to look at the recent and dramatic rather than the underlying causes.

Question 2 : if yes, or even if no, how is/ should that impact your life/ investing strategy?

A: I have no plans to leave the US based on which idiot is elected in November. This is my home and the politicians can perform impossible and unnatural acts on each other with my regards. Investment wise, Iím already very much into overseas equities. I plan to stay the course. At some point I would like to at least consider diversification into more US equities, but Iím in no rush. Weíll see how things develop. Itís probably premature to be thinking about more dramatic strategies.

I think where the great investments will be are in those things that make us more resilient. Skills, things that help us be more self-sufficient, disaster prep, interpersonal networks, etc. Those sorts of things tend to be a win regardless.

Q1 - Simply, NO we are talking about a failed state.  I hate politics and think most involved are self interested wastes of space that love to hear themselves talk.   But we decidedly still have a functioning government.  Sure its dysfunctional at times (like now) but there are still multiple branches that are required for participation with regular election cycles that permit changes (mostly dictated by swing states though). 

Q2 - it doesn't change my strategy in the long term, maybe in the short term a bit.  As I said before I have a conservative AA right now that was based on SOR (rising equity glide path), current valuations (took some chips off the table), and possible near term volatility (election, covid resurgence or continued economic impact).   AA choice could be good or bad but its right for me as I sleep well with it. I also no its right bc when covid hit I wasn't stressed (but wasn't happy about). 

Other countries are no better or worse, so some are better or worse. Who knows.  Europe has been no panacea, perpetually economically stagnant but some places have good quality of life.    Do you want to live in China or India, both of which economically are on the curve where the US was 100 years ago but have not so great political structures (as I say moderately while chuckling).   I am sure I could come up with a few places that would seem to be nice to cast away and live out the rest of my life but like others said then there is the family, friends, culture (even if you would be willing to go and assimilate, they may not want you or accept you). 

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3794 on: August 21, 2020, 10:30:55 AM »
Another daily melt up....Tesla and Apple crazy! among others

Broken record alert!!!!

I don't get it!   Apple's revenues and income haven't really grown in three years - sure it may have been a but undervalued three years ago and sure they had a banner quarter (cough, cough.....stay at home, nowhere else to spend money,  stimulus payments to spend....cough cough)

But TSLA,  my gosh.   How many cars (and future batteries) would they have to justify the current market cap (P/E of 1,056). Even if you used market cap/Gross Profit it would be 75 GP/PE or Market Cap / Operating Income would be 314 for TTM.   

Heck if you used 12/31/2019 annualized (their best quarter on record) you would have a Market Cap /Gross Profit of 69 and Market Cap /Operating Income of 338.  These are ridiculous numbers for any company let alone an auto company, yeah I said auto.  Shit, even if you backed out all of R&D it results in a P/E of 212, of course then there would be no future to pay a premium for. 

 They sell about 90k per quarter worldwide over last 12 months (impacted by covid sure), peak quarter was 112k 12/31/2019.   

For TTM 6/30/2020, They made $948 of net income per car (includes R&D expense) so to get to a more reasonable 30 P/E (ha, more reasonable) they would have to sell about 24 million cars (hmmmmm).   


Ok ok, so they have grown and eliminated R&D bc now they are in stable blue chip mode - assuming adding back R&D gets you profit of $4250 per car.   At 30 P/E that means selling about
5.3 million cars, ok a much more reasonable number at about 7% of global annual auto sales.  And sure there will be trucks and batteries. 

I couldn't make the case before and certainly can't now.   I guess if I had I would be having this discussion in the $4M+ thread (lol).   But then I would also have to be doing individual stocks.  Crap I really f'ed myself with this whole rational, balanced, and index approach.


LWYRUP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3795 on: August 21, 2020, 10:41:54 AM »
This analysis also assumes no more price growth until they get that 7% share.  If price growth continues, then it's a moving target.

I dunno, I would continue playing the long game and keep the ship steady.  There's the boring boglehead in me. 

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3796 on: August 21, 2020, 11:34:56 AM »
This analysis also assumes no more price growth until they get that 7% share.  If price growth continues, then it's a moving target.

I dunno, I would continue playing the long game and keep the ship steady.  There's the boring boglehead in me.

I was just joking about f'ing myself.  I will keep to my ways, its worked for me thus far.   

But to think, a year or so ago there was more discussion of whether or not TSLA would survive the year, let alone the future, due to Musk's tweeting and looming debt that nobody thought they could refinance, and a big cash flow needs that they didn't have any way to fund.    Oh what a year makes!

If TSLA stock isn't a bubble then I don't know what is.


Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3797 on: August 21, 2020, 03:28:55 PM »
Our Apple stock is over 50K on a 10K investment.  Wondering how much higher it blows up before it deflates.  I want a Cybertruck in the future and that stock can buy it.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3798 on: August 21, 2020, 03:29:52 PM »

- SNIP -

2.  I don't know if the USA is becoming a "failed state."  I think we are definitely in decline.  But things have looked rough at various points in history (was just reading about a miner's riot in WV that turned basically into a real gun battle between 6,000 miners and 2,000 mercenaries with federal troops monitoring, etc., let's not even get into historical instabilities in Europe).  So I'm hoping this is mostly sound and fury but I don't have a crystal ball. 

-SNIP-


Battle of Blair Mountain.  It kinda makes some proud to be rednecks.  The spirit of those miners is still out there.  The US will pull out of the current muck and mire.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #3799 on: August 21, 2020, 06:06:25 PM »

- SNIP -

2.  I don't know if the USA is becoming a "failed state."  I think we are definitely in decline.  But things have looked rough at various points in history (was just reading about a miner's riot in WV that turned basically into a real gun battle between 6,000 miners and 2,000 mercenaries with federal troops monitoring, etc., let's not even get into historical instabilities in Europe).  So I'm hoping this is mostly sound and fury but I don't have a crystal ball. 

-SNIP-


Battle of Blair Mountain.  It kinda makes some proud to be rednecks.  The spirit of those miners is still out there.  The US will pull out of the current muck and mire.

Except a lot of the rednecks are on the side of the ultra-rich now -- and they don't even understand that they are.