Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 536496 times)

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2750 on: March 27, 2020, 11:39:31 PM »
Our plan was to be at 40% bonds at the time we reached our FI number, which happened late last year. That plan coincides both with the ERN bond tent analysis and the Living Off Your Money book. So in some ways we were lucky that I had read about that stuff and dialed back on the equities recently as we have been around 90% equities through our accumulation years. We have been higher in bonds for exactly this sort of scenario: massive dump right as we reach FIRE.

I still quit my job two weeks ago but my husband was planning on another year before this anyway. Iím really glad now to have that buffer and be still adding to our investments instead of drawing down, though I am bummed that we arenít adding to them at the same rate as before.

Just having one of you retired and the other working could still make life easier.  Income to cover bills and maybe invest.  Also someone at home to have a happy meal prepared in this time of lockdowns.  All our best to you.   Have fun.

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2751 on: March 28, 2020, 12:12:16 AM »
I'm feeling better today about my move to sell.  It is what it is.   It's all still good.  Thanks for not roasting me.   It just feels way too much like gambling for my comfort.  It's only fun when you're winning. 

So my financial hit is probably yet to come.  RE rentals are likely to take a big hit too.   I think at  most of my tenants have Essential jobs, with only 2 that I'm concerned about that run a little closer to the edge every month anyway.   I'll call them next week if things look shaky.   

I'm surprised that so many of you have such a high cash/bonds to investments ratio.   Did you just let it creep up over the years in the market and then slowly move it to safety?  I'm intrigued that so much liquidity wouldn't be getting a return. 

Regarding diversification-  Did any of you consider investing in Secured Notes?  Either First Trust Deed mortgage notes or something like peer to peer lending?   MMM did a write up on Lending Club a while ago.  I tried it, but didn't like it much.  I also tried crowd funded mortgage lending.  I'm not impressed with that, either.  I'm not funding flakey people with my hard earned funds and trusting that the managers will collect.     We have 2 First TD's on places that we sold and did owner carry seller financing.  Those have performed well, after a rocky start (with a family member) got sorted out.  7% and 6.5% interest and secured by properly valued real estate.




I had a lot more index funds until they started crashing.  I tried staying in until realizing that this isn't a "correction", and could take years to recover from.  This was an expensive lesson. 

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2752 on: March 28, 2020, 02:38:39 AM »
Is it safe to say that most of you locked in loses after the initial steep decline? Or was anyone anticipating this and got out prior to mid-February?

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2753 on: March 28, 2020, 06:21:13 AM »
Is it safe to say that most of you locked in loses after the initial steep decline? Or was anyone anticipating this and got out prior to mid-February?

I'm not sure I'm even a member of this club, so take my answer with a grain of salt.

I've been at 90/10 or greater since 1987.  I base my AA on my long term goals, spending habits and risk tolerance, which all change at a glacial pace.  I don't change my AA due to market conditions.  This year I rebalanced from bonds to stocks on 2/26, 2/28, 3/10, 3/11, 3/12, and 3/13, moving from 93/7 to 95/5 in the process.  I also did a Roth conversion on 3/17 of about half of the amount I expect to do this year.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2754 on: March 28, 2020, 07:34:40 AM »
Our plan was to be at 40% bonds at the time we reached our FI number, which happened late last year. That plan coincides both with the ERN bond tent analysis and the Living Off Your Money book. So in some ways we were lucky that I had read about that stuff and dialed back on the equities recently as we have been around 90% equities through our accumulation years. We have been higher in bonds for exactly this sort of scenario: massive dump right as we reach FIRE.

I still quit my job two weeks ago but my husband was planning on another year before this anyway. Iím really glad now to have that buffer and be still adding to our investments instead of drawing down, though I am bummed that we arenít adding to them at the same rate as before.

Your husband is adding to them at an increased rate.   Every wage dollar he invests buys more shares than before. :)

AdrianC

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2755 on: March 28, 2020, 07:36:20 AM »
Is it safe to say that most of you locked in loses after the initial steep decline? Or was anyone anticipating this and got out prior to mid-February?
Didn't get out. I have no talent that way.

I did some tax loss harvesting, but it wasn't locking in losses - I bought something else with the cash (which has gone up more than the original asset, but that's just luck, and may not last).

I expect most of us here have been through this sort of market with substantial investments at least once before. We accept volatility as part of the game.

AA is 80/20. I'm thinking of putting 5% more to stocks if they get cheap. It doesn't matter either way, though.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2756 on: March 28, 2020, 07:46:48 AM »
Is it safe to say that most of you locked in loses after the initial steep decline? Or was anyone anticipating this and got out prior to mid-February?
Didn't get out. I have no talent that way.

I did some tax loss harvesting, but it wasn't locking in losses - I bought something else with the cash (which has gone up more than the original asset, but that's just luck, and may not last).

I expect most of us here have been through this sort of market with substantial investments at least once before. We accept volatility as part of the game.

AA is 80/20. I'm thinking of putting 5% more to stocks if they get cheap. It doesn't matter either way, though.

I pulled out about $140,000 for a down payment and for some renovation costs on real estate investments in early January.   Had nothing to do with this epidemic, we just happened to find a house last December that we really wanted to live in.  :)

Glad that all happened before the market slumped or we would have walked away.

Other than that, we didn't do anything based on any special knowledge about what would happen to the stock market.

After all, I thought the top was in back in 2012, which only goes to show what I know.   :)

So, we'll hunker down in our social distancing isolation, spend as little as we have to, plus a bit more to help out good people we know, and wait for better times.   Or, if need be, make better times.

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2757 on: March 28, 2020, 08:52:05 AM »
Is it safe to say that most of you locked in loses after the initial steep decline? Or was anyone anticipating this and got out prior to mid-February?


I held some long-term (per capital gains) funds that I sold as they were approaching $0 gains.  So, they were probably down about $1M from their peak.


I'd also purchased another index fund right before the crash.  I hadn't even had it 30 days, so couldn't even harvest the tax loss at that time.  Thinking we could be very close to the bottom, I harvested the loss & purchased a similar, but not identical, fund the week before last. 


It seems the more you have the more you can lose... 




SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2758 on: March 28, 2020, 09:18:56 AM »
We didn't do anything portfolio-wise.   I expect in 6 months to 2 years we'll have recovered the lost gains. 
If it takes longer, well, we're still in a better position than we would have been had we not taken FIRE.

itchyfeet

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2759 on: March 28, 2020, 09:56:56 AM »
We didnít do anything pre COVID-19.

However, last year the market was super hot, so in December I started to get cold feet buying more stock. Nothing to do with COVID-19, just a pause on my part to see what the market did. I didnít sell anything.

When the market dropped 30% I had $50K of cash so I threw it in. It been a loss making decision so far but itíll be ok.

I just got my 2019 bonus and am feeling a bit cautious on investing it in stocks given all that is happening around us. We still have mortgages on our rental properties so am thinking we might pay down a bit of debt, as we will have the option to redraw the funds if we have an emergency. We already have $250k in available for redraw, but in these uncertain times adding a little more while we wait for the world to normalise feels right.

The biggest change we have made is that having lost around $600K and with no confidence that we wonít lose more before a recovery, I wonít be FIREing until this drama is behind us.

ysette9

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2760 on: March 28, 2020, 09:59:11 AM »
Our plan was to be at 40% bonds at the time we reached our FI number, which happened late last year. That plan coincides both with the ERN bond tent analysis and the Living Off Your Money book. So in some ways we were lucky that I had read about that stuff and dialed back on the equities recently as we have been around 90% equities through our accumulation years. We have been higher in bonds for exactly this sort of scenario: massive dump right as we reach FIRE.

I still quit my job two weeks ago but my husband was planning on another year before this anyway. Iím really glad now to have that buffer and be still adding to our investments instead of drawing down, though I am bummed that we arenít adding to them at the same rate as before.

Just having one of you retired and the other working could still make life easier.  Income to cover bills and maybe invest.  Also someone at home to have a happy meal prepared in this time of lockdowns.  All our best to you.   Have fun.
With three little kids at home this isnít going to be fun, but it will be a heck of a lot easier than if we were both trying to work from home while home schooling and entertaining a toddler and a baby. We are certainly fortunate to have one of us not have to work.

ysette9

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2761 on: March 28, 2020, 10:02:06 AM »
Our plan was to be at 40% bonds at the time we reached our FI number, which happened late last year. That plan coincides both with the ERN bond tent analysis and the Living Off Your Money book. So in some ways we were lucky that I had read about that stuff and dialed back on the equities recently as we have been around 90% equities through our accumulation years. We have been higher in bonds for exactly this sort of scenario: massive dump right as we reach FIRE.

I still quit my job two weeks ago but my husband was planning on another year before this anyway. Iím really glad now to have that buffer and be still adding to our investments instead of drawing down, though I am bummed that we arenít adding to them at the same rate as before.

Your husband is adding to them at an increased rate.   Every wage dollar he invests buys more shares than before. :)
True! MPP: I feel like this is the second big crash I havenít been able to properly take advantage of. The first time I was doing 401k but was early in my career so didnít have enough income to invest in a taxable account also. Pretty much the same situation again now. My husband should be able to max his 401k but we are stopping the taxable contributions since I am no longer bringing home the bacon.

lhamo

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2762 on: March 28, 2020, 11:37:12 AM »
Is it safe to say that most of you locked in loses after the initial steep decline? Or was anyone anticipating this and got out prior to mid-February?

Why would anyone with 2-4 mill choose to lock in losses?

We rode the  market up for 10 years.  We can hang on through a bit more bumpiness. 

I did harvest some small gains in October and early January -- put one pot of money I might be relying on in the short term at 100k in a money market fund, which is 2-3 years of basic expenses for me.  I thought about moving more to cash but decided not to since we already have 5-6 years of cash in other accounts.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2763 on: March 28, 2020, 11:45:57 AM »
My question was aimed at those who admitted to selling recently.

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EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2764 on: March 28, 2020, 12:18:38 PM »
My question was aimed at those who admitted to selling recently.

Been a cautious buyer lately.  Sold $600k of my 401k to buy stable value in fall of 2018 (early, but CAPE was already crazy at S&P of 2800 - earnings were overpriced).  No, I did not predict the corona virus sell off, but we were at the peak of Mt. Everest (S&P at 3400), I was fat-FI and there was no way I was going to leverage in to over-valued equities.  I'm still at a bit below 50/50 AA, although I want to be at 60/40.  Maybe we get a rally and the markets put me there, or maybe I have to continue to rebalance as the markets fall and ultimately 'over-rebalance' in the coming months - I'm not trying to time this thing and get "rich", I'm just making sure I maintain my FI (and preferably fat-FI), while also supporting the local community with increased spending.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2765 on: March 28, 2020, 03:35:27 PM »
I do indeed fear the rising dragon in the east.  We've been exposed for what we are, a manufacturing peon.  We lack the ability to make a protective mask or ventilator.   Our people are incoherent and can't follow simple instructions.  Our medical system lacks the ability to go on a war footing to attack the pandemic.   Our leadership squandered our time we should have been ramping up for this battle calling it a hoax.   In our ineptitude we've decided it would be ok to sacrifice Grandma and Grandpa to keep business working.  We have been unveiled as a weak people.  The American tough image is only a facade.   When we come out of this we'd better change quickly or we'll look like Europe.  A weak shell and museum of former greatness.

Right - The people of the East have done great things in this generation.  Fantastic economic growth.  Some countries have changed from making nothing for the world to making everything.  How did they do it?  They also seem to have this strange long term outlook.

The United States has shred a massive manufacturing base and squandered blood and treasure in foreign adventures.  Their people's standard of living has gone down?  How did they do it?
.

But they are, at least here in the rust belt.  Our hospitals now are getting stockpiles of hand sanitizer made by local companies.    Steelcase is retooling to make masks.  They are planning to do so in an orderly manner.  They are also talking to our local hospitals about what else they can produce.  But they want to get it right the first time.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2766 on: March 29, 2020, 01:18:22 AM »
I do indeed fear the rising dragon in the east.  We've been exposed for what we are, a manufacturing peon.  We lack the ability to make a protective mask or ventilator.   Our people are incoherent and can't follow simple instructions.  Our medical system lacks the ability to go on a war footing to attack the pandemic.   Our leadership squandered our time we should have been ramping up for this battle calling it a hoax.   In our ineptitude we've decided it would be ok to sacrifice Grandma and Grandpa to keep business working.  We have been unveiled as a weak people.  The American tough image is only a facade.   When we come out of this we'd better change quickly or we'll look like Europe.  A weak shell and museum of former greatness.

Right - The people of the East have done great things in this generation.  Fantastic economic growth.  Some countries have changed from making nothing for the world to making everything.  How did they do it?  They also seem to have this strange long term outlook.

The United States has shred a massive manufacturing base and squandered blood and treasure in foreign adventures.  Their people's standard of living has gone down?  How did they do it?
.

But they are, at least here in the rust belt.  Our hospitals now are getting stockpiles of hand sanitizer made by local companies.    Steelcase is retooling to make masks.  They are planning to do so in an orderly manner.  They are also talking to our local hospitals about what else they can produce.  But they want to get it right the first time.
That's good news! I hope they knock it out of the park getting it right the first time..

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2767 on: March 29, 2020, 04:50:32 AM »
I always looked at my portfolio a bit differently and was in my cash than the normal advice for various reasons. My investments though were always at 60/40. Not sure I mentioned this on this forum or another but back in November we went to buy a house and had to go in with a no contingency cash offer as it was/is a lake house and over twice as much as the paid for house we were living in. Long and short of it I sold over 600k of my stocks/index funds and used some cash I had in VMMXX to close on the house we purchased on Dec 6th and then Fortunately I did not put the $ back into the market as like others I just went with my gut that things were getting very lofty and not even hearing about the Corona-19. So with the cash I had we are now at  Excluding 529's (which is over now just barely 6 figures) 47.40 Stocks, 29.40 Bonds and 23.20 cash or cash like positions. We also have income of 3-4k a month coming in after adding to 401k and HSA but our Expenses are close to 9k a month plus I have about 100k yet to put into house I'm doing. So in my case I was more lucky then good and I dont seem to have alot of luck in my life and it doesnt feel like it because I am through this as of now still down 390k. But I have added two index funds on our near each 5% decline half cash and half selling bonds and will continue to do so and going forward plan on doing the same but if things go side ways or just doesnt feel right will live off cash and not make withdrawals as I have been since being fire'd. The  one thing that has happend through his Virus is we have lowered our expenses too without really trying by over 2k a month because of not burning gas, entertainment and so on. My gut and nothing more tells me there is going to be more pain and this is going to take 3-5 years to recover from that so that is how I am going to plan for it. Rather be to conservative and protect what I have then lose more even if it means giving up more upside But similar to @EscapeVelocity2020 's thinking. The one thing no one seems to talk about with the talking heads as they keep moving profitability quarters off based on us up and running is how the rest of the world is going to recover and have the need to be buying our products as well. This is a global problem not a USA problem which in my view makes this a longer problem. I hope I am wrong as we already have lost to many lives and peoples careers and finances have been ruined but until I see true green shoots I'm planning or thinking longer term.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2768 on: March 29, 2020, 06:53:03 AM »
I do indeed fear the rising dragon in the east.  We've been exposed for what we are, a manufacturing peon.  We lack the ability to make a protective mask or ventilator.   Our people are incoherent and can't follow simple instructions.  Our medical system lacks the ability to go on a war footing to attack the pandemic.   Our leadership squandered our time we should have been ramping up for this battle calling it a hoax.   In our ineptitude we've decided it would be ok to sacrifice Grandma and Grandpa to keep business working.  We have been unveiled as a weak people.  The American tough image is only a facade.   When we come out of this we'd better change quickly or we'll look like Europe.  A weak shell and museum of former greatness.

Right - The people of the East have done great things in this generation.  Fantastic economic growth.  Some countries have changed from making nothing for the world to making everything.  How did they do it?  They also seem to have this strange long term outlook.

The United States has shred a massive manufacturing base and squandered blood and treasure in foreign adventures.  Their people's standard of living has gone down?  How did they do it?
.

But they are, at least here in the rust belt.  Our hospitals now are getting stockpiles of hand sanitizer made by local companies.    Steelcase is retooling to make masks.  They are planning to do so in an orderly manner.  They are also talking to our local hospitals about what else they can produce.  But they want to get it right the first time.

Could be a permanent market for Steelcase.  Recessions do not help sell office furniture and looks like one is on the way.  I guess there are still lots of small manufacturers in Western Michigan that can make this kind of stuff for the epidemic.

I still stand by what I said.  I drove by the GM plant in Lordstown a month or so ago and couldn't help think, "Another One Bites the Dust."

I've been squirreling away cash for a bit as this stock market expansion just seemed too good to be true.  Might be time to head North and hide away in a cabin for a few years.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2769 on: March 29, 2020, 07:15:45 AM »
I always looked at my portfolio a bit differently and was in my cash than the normal advice for various reasons. My investments though were always at 60/40. Not sure I mentioned this on this forum or another but back in November we went to buy a house and had to go in with a no contingency cash offer as it was/is a lake house and over twice as much as the paid for house we were living in. Long and short of it I sold over 600k of my stocks/index funds and used some cash I had in VMMXX to close on the house we purchased on Dec 6th and then Fortunately I did not put the $ back into the market as like others I just went with my gut that things were getting very lofty and not even hearing about the Corona-19. So with the cash I had we are now at  Excluding 529's (which is over now just barely 6 figures) 47.40 Stocks, 29.40 Bonds and 23.20 cash or cash like positions. We also have income of 3-4k a month coming in after adding to 401k and HSA but our Expenses are close to 9k a month plus I have about 100k yet to put into house I'm doing. So in my case I was more lucky then good and I dont seem to have alot of luck in my life and it doesnt feel like it because I am through this as of now still down 390k. But I have added two index funds on our near each 5% decline half cash and half selling bonds and will continue to do so and going forward plan on doing the same but if things go side ways or just doesnt feel right will live off cash and not make withdrawals as I have been since being fire'd. The  one thing that has happend through his Virus is we have lowered our expenses too without really trying by over 2k a month because of not burning gas, entertainment and so on. My gut and nothing more tells me there is going to be more pain and this is going to take 3-5 years to recover from that so that is how I am going to plan for it. Rather be to conservative and protect what I have then lose more even if it means giving up more upside But similar to @EscapeVelocity2020 's thinking. The one thing no one seems to talk about with the talking heads as they keep moving profitability quarters off based on us up and running is how the rest of the world is going to recover and have the need to be buying our products as well. This is a global problem not a USA problem which in my view makes this a longer problem. I hope I am wrong as we already have lost to many lives and peoples careers and finances have been ruined but until I see true green shoots I'm planning or thinking longer term.

Take a deep breath.   Breathe slowly.   Relax.

Now, go to https://personalfinancedata.com/networth-percentile-calculator/ and put your pre-drop and again your post drop net worth.

Notice what percentile of wealth in this country you were in and are now in.

And revisit that thought that you haven't had much luck in your life.

If that doesn't do it, go to www.globalrichlist.com and put your net worth in.   Or put your now lowered income in.

And now that you feel better about how very damn lucky you are, find a way to help out folks who are less lucky. :)

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2770 on: March 29, 2020, 07:27:22 AM »
I haven't sold anything at all but two things:

1. I have increased my post-tax monthly purchase of S&P500 index by $500

2. My plan has always been to rebalance my IRA on a yearly basis (every August). I really should be using this drop as an opportunity to rebalance my IRA. Bit I must confess that I just don't have the nerve for that unfortunately.

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2771 on: March 29, 2020, 08:26:45 AM »
I do indeed fear the rising dragon in the east.  We've been exposed for what we are, a manufacturing peon.  We lack the ability to make a protective mask or ventilator.   Our people are incoherent and can't follow simple instructions.  Our medical system lacks the ability to go on a war footing to attack the pandemic.   Our leadership squandered our time we should have been ramping up for this battle calling it a hoax.   In our ineptitude we've decided it would be ok to sacrifice Grandma and Grandpa to keep business working.  We have been unveiled as a weak people.  The American tough image is only a facade.   When we come out of this we'd better change quickly or we'll look like Europe.  A weak shell and museum of former greatness.

Right - The people of the East have done great things in this generation.  Fantastic economic growth.  Some countries have changed from making nothing for the world to making everything.  How did they do it?  They also seem to have this strange long term outlook.

The United States has shred a massive manufacturing base and squandered blood and treasure in foreign adventures.  Their people's standard of living has gone down?  How did they do it?
.

But they are, at least here in the rust belt.  Our hospitals now are getting stockpiles of hand sanitizer made by local companies.    Steelcase is retooling to make masks.  They are planning to do so in an orderly manner.  They are also talking to our local hospitals about what else they can produce.  But they want to get it right the first time.

Could be a permanent market for Steelcase.  Recessions do not help sell office furniture and looks like one is on the way.  I guess there are still lots of small manufacturers in Western Michigan that can make this kind of stuff for the epidemic.

I still stand by what I said.  I drove by the GM plant in Lordstown a month or so ago and couldn't help think, "Another One Bites the Dust."

I've been squirreling away cash for a bit as this stock market expansion just seemed too good to be true.  Might be time to head North and hide away in a cabin for a few years.




I'm slightly regretting buying another lake house last Spring.  Our mountain place just sits empty, but it's where I'd rather be most of the time.  DW & DD love the lake and the Winters in Boone can be brutal, so I figured I'd try to be happy down here.  I guess it's a good thing to have the money tied up in the lake house, otherwise the market could have just devoured a large chunk of it. 


I don't want to predict how long it will be before the economy begins to recover.  But after we have a vaccination, the ventilators, and a supply of masks & gloves, ....and counted & buried the victims, there is plenty of opportunity for growth.  We still have the far greater problem of global warming to brace for.  With a supportive government, we could make rapid strides towards greener energies and cleaner transportation.  Combating & adjusting for the rising tides, increasing heat waves, droughts & floods, and other weather extremes will require vast amounts of investment.  The more we, as a society, invest the more we will profit.  Hopefully, we've learned that we need to diversify our global supply chains.  Relying on China for everything has proven to be shortsighted.  More countries need to be given the opportunity for economic development.  Weak economies are breeding grounds for problems that threaten our strong economies.  The social unrest in South America & the Middle East needs to be solved by encouraging economic development.  Until then the refugees will continue to coming.  The poor are marching towards the money, it's as simple as that.  Investing in their countries is more productive than investing in ever larger armies to defend against them.  We need leaders that understand how to build and maintain positive agendas and relationships.  For some reason we seem have extremely wealthy players that believe and support the opposite. 

secondcor521

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2772 on: March 29, 2020, 09:25:46 AM »
2 weeks??

Yup.  That's my opinion.  But I am an eternal optimist.  We will see.

That's not eternal optimism, that's delusion.   30 more days minimum and probably more like 90 days.   

Well, consider me deluded if you like.  But to be clear (which I probably wasn't 100% in my original post), I think that sometime in the next two weeks some non-coronavirus headline will be the main headline on the main news websites.  See quote below with emphasis added.

I do think the virus will be with us indefinitely, and I do think we'll continue to have new cases and deaths for months, and I do think it will be in the news for a long time.

I am very curious to see how long the various restrictions, accommodations, and cancellations will remain in effect.  For example, my kids are in college and high school and they're all doing the virtual learning thing this semester.  What about this summer and this fall?  I don't know.  Also, will all of them subside at various rates and at various points in time, or will we decide everything is fine all at once?

I'm planning to finally retire this Spring so the fall of stock prices concern me.  However, the causes seem to be temporary this time.  The price of oil will inevitably return to it's higher state.  People cannot hide away from this virus forever.  It's not the Bubonic plague where a major portion of the populace will be removed.  People will only hide away with their hoarded toilet paper so long until the bullsh#t flag is raised and schools will reopen and business will return to normal.  I figure a maximum of 2 months.

My son and I were discussing this last night on our apocalypse run to the grocery store (limited outages, generally not the end of the world, found everything we wanted except the kind of bottled water we prefer, and butter).

I think it will be much shorter - probably on the order of two weeks.

We also discussed what metric we would use to decide when things have subsided.  We decided one good metric would be what the top news headline of the day is.  He also opined that people in general can't remain scared of one topic for very long, and so the media out of necessity will switch to something else (plane crash, war, mass shooting, something like that would be my guess as to what will dislodge stupidVirus from page 1).

My "on the order of 2 weeks" thought was two weeks ago.  I thought I would check to see how things turned out.

One of the main websites I watch is cnn.com.  Both today and yesterday, their format is three columns at the top.  The first two, both today and yesterday, relate to coronavirus.  The third one in the top right, both yesterday and today, have been bad weather stories (this morning it was a tornado somewhere in I believe Arkansas).  Whoops, now it's announcing the death of a TV soap opera actor.

So I agree that the top news headline is still the coronavirus, but I also think that we are seeing signs of the media reporting on other topics.  I will also admit I was wrong about the type of story that would (partially) dislodge the virus.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2773 on: March 29, 2020, 11:01:24 AM »

I remember back when I could post in this thread.  Those were good times.  I'll see you all again in a few more years. 

*Goes back to the salt mines*

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2774 on: March 29, 2020, 02:19:24 PM »
I always looked at my portfolio a bit differently and was in my cash than the normal advice for various reasons. My investments though were always at 60/40. Not sure I mentioned this on this forum or another but back in November we went to buy a house and had to go in with a no contingency cash offer as it was/is a lake house and over twice as much as the paid for house we were living in. Long and short of it I sold over 600k of my stocks/index funds and used some cash I had in VMMXX to close on the house we purchased on Dec 6th and then Fortunately I did not put the $ back into the market as like others I just went with my gut that things were getting very lofty and not even hearing about the Corona-19. So with the cash I had we are now at  Excluding 529's (which is over now just barely 6 figures) 47.40 Stocks, 29.40 Bonds and 23.20 cash or cash like positions. We also have income of 3-4k a month coming in after adding to 401k and HSA but our Expenses are close to 9k a month plus I have about 100k yet to put into house I'm doing. So in my case I was more lucky then good and I dont seem to have alot of luck in my life and it doesnt feel like it because I am through this as of now still down 390k. But I have added two index funds on our near each 5% decline half cash and half selling bonds and will continue to do so and going forward plan on doing the same but if things go side ways or just doesnt feel right will live off cash and not make withdrawals as I have been since being fire'd. The  one thing that has happend through his Virus is we have lowered our expenses too without really trying by over 2k a month because of not burning gas, entertainment and so on. My gut and nothing more tells me there is going to be more pain and this is going to take 3-5 years to recover from that so that is how I am going to plan for it. Rather be to conservative and protect what I have then lose more even if it means giving up more upside But similar to @EscapeVelocity2020 's thinking. The one thing no one seems to talk about with the talking heads as they keep moving profitability quarters off based on us up and running is how the rest of the world is going to recover and have the need to be buying our products as well. This is a global problem not a USA problem which in my view makes this a longer problem. I hope I am wrong as we already have lost to many lives and peoples careers and finances have been ruined but until I see true green shoots I'm planning or thinking longer term.

Take a deep breath.   Breathe slowly.   Relax.

Now, go to https://personalfinancedata.com/networth-percentile-calculator/ and put your pre-drop and again your post drop net worth.

Notice what percentile of wealth in this country you were in and are now in.

And revisit that thought that you haven't had much luck in your life.

If that doesn't do it, go to www.globalrichlist.com and put your net worth in.   Or put your now lowered income in.

And now that you feel better about how very damn lucky you are, find a way to help out folks who are less lucky. :)


oh i am pretty relaxed :-) perhaps my post didnt represent that as well as I was trying to state.  , Very much one as well that has always helped thy neighbor always have been, I just don't talk about it.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2775 on: March 29, 2020, 10:42:10 PM »
I always looked at my portfolio a bit differently and was in my cash than the normal advice for various reasons. My investments though were always at 60/40. Not sure I mentioned this on this forum or another but back in November we went to buy a house and had to go in with a no contingency cash offer as it was/is a lake house and over twice as much as the paid for house we were living in. Long and short of it I sold over 600k of my stocks/index funds and used some cash I had in VMMXX to close on the house we purchased on Dec 6th and then Fortunately I did not put the $ back into the market as like others I just went with my gut that things were getting very lofty and not even hearing about the Corona-19. So with the cash I had we are now at  Excluding 529's (which is over now just barely 6 figures) 47.40 Stocks, 29.40 Bonds and 23.20 cash or cash like positions. We also have income of 3-4k a month coming in after adding to 401k and HSA but our Expenses are close to 9k a month plus I have about 100k yet to put into house I'm doing. So in my case I was more lucky then good and I dont seem to have alot of luck in my life and it doesnt feel like it because I am through this as of now still down 390k. But I have added two index funds on our near each 5% decline half cash and half selling bonds and will continue to do so and going forward plan on doing the same but if things go side ways or just doesnt feel right will live off cash and not make withdrawals as I have been since being fire'd. The  one thing that has happend through his Virus is we have lowered our expenses too without really trying by over 2k a month because of not burning gas, entertainment and so on. My gut and nothing more tells me there is going to be more pain and this is going to take 3-5 years to recover from that so that is how I am going to plan for it. Rather be to conservative and protect what I have then lose more even if it means giving up more upside But similar to @EscapeVelocity2020 's thinking. The one thing no one seems to talk about with the talking heads as they keep moving profitability quarters off based on us up and running is how the rest of the world is going to recover and have the need to be buying our products as well. This is a global problem not a USA problem which in my view makes this a longer problem. I hope I am wrong as we already have lost to many lives and peoples careers and finances have been ruined but until I see true green shoots I'm planning or thinking longer term.

Take a deep breath.   Breathe slowly.   Relax.

Now, go to https://personalfinancedata.com/networth-percentile-calculator/ and put your pre-drop and again your post drop net worth.

Notice what percentile of wealth in this country you were in and are now in.

And revisit that thought that you haven't had much luck in your life.

If that doesn't do it, go to www.globalrichlist.com and put your net worth in.   Or put your now lowered income in.

And now that you feel better about how very damn lucky you are, find a way to help out folks who are less lucky. :)

The world has 8 million people who are wealthier.   I suck.

deborah

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2776 on: March 29, 2020, 11:52:26 PM »
It probably hasn't caught up with the net worth since coronavirus reared its head - there's probably only 7 million who are wealthier.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2777 on: March 30, 2020, 06:31:41 AM »

I remember back when I could post in this thread.  Those were good times.  I'll see you all again in a few more years. 

*Goes back to the salt mines*

It's not like you can't visit and let us know how you're doing.  We're not snobs.  Plenty of us lost fingernails holding onto the edge recently.  😁

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2778 on: March 30, 2020, 03:58:35 PM »
The government is dumping a huge amount of money into fighting this virus.  Maybe, its time to make a problem into an opportunity.  How can this be done?

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2779 on: March 30, 2020, 04:18:54 PM »
The government is dumping a huge amount of money into fighting this virus.  Maybe, its time to make a problem into an opportunity.  How can this be done?


You must have forgotten to pay your dues.  We sent that info out last week.  ;)

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2780 on: March 31, 2020, 09:55:42 AM »
I just purchased some TDG shares for $341.625   I wanted to get in when it was $302, but missed out.  Don't know if it was a good price, but will buy some more if it goes down.


Buffett bought about $200M of it between $475-425 per share, so I feel like I got it at a good price.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2781 on: March 31, 2020, 12:31:54 PM »
I just purchased some TDG shares for $341.625   I wanted to get in when it was $302, but missed out.  Don't know if it was a good price, but will buy some more if it goes down.


Buffett bought about $200M of it between $475-425 per share, so I feel like I got it at a good price.


I'm sure you'll get to add to it at a lower price. We have a long ways to go through all this.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2782 on: March 31, 2020, 08:12:23 PM »
I just purchased some TDG shares for $341.625   I wanted to get in when it was $302, but missed out.  Don't know if it was a good price, but will buy some more if it goes down.


Buffett bought about $200M of it between $475-425 per share, so I feel like I got it at a good price.


I'm sure you'll get to add to it at a lower price. We have a long ways to go through all this.

We haven't found a bottom yet.  Market is bouncing on the prospect of 2 trillion being pumped into the economy.
If 47 million layoffs come we aren't even close.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2783 on: April 01, 2020, 03:58:33 AM »
I just purchased some TDG shares for $341.625   I wanted to get in when it was $302, but missed out.  Don't know if it was a good price, but will buy some more if it goes down.


Buffett bought about $200M of it between $475-425 per share, so I feel like I got it at a good price.


I'm sure you'll get to add to it at a lower price. We have a long ways to go through all this.

We haven't found a bottom yet.  Market is bouncing on the prospect of 2 trillion being pumped into the economy.
If 47 million layoffs come we aren't even close.


Agreed! good time to be patient. Times like this I would rather risk upside than be thinking we found the bottom. At the very least we will have more down days so nothing wrong with DCA in but I've personally met these levels so waiting for now to see where we go from here.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2784 on: April 02, 2020, 03:21:25 AM »
Uggh, for Wednesdays close but expected. No reason for market to go up right now imo and seemingly we need to get more of the Virus under control, people back to work and this oil thing straightened out. Till then.... really think will retest the lows if not make new ones. But thats just gut speaking. Thinking Long term!

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2785 on: April 02, 2020, 12:51:13 PM »
Uggh, for Wednesdays close but expected. No reason for market to go up right now imo and seemingly we need to get more of the Virus under control, people back to work and this oil thing straightened out. Till then.... really think will retest the lows if not make new ones. But thats just gut speaking. Thinking Long term!

Those foolhearty gains may not last the day.  Only matter of time till the second leg down hits.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2786 on: April 02, 2020, 01:05:44 PM »
Those foolhearty gains may not last the day.  Only matter of time till the second leg down hits.
All those that are predicting further pain and further lows... you are probably right. Based on my experience in 2008/2009 I predict (with a high degree of certainty) that people will be predicting lower lows and more pain when we actually do hit a bottom. Unfortunately I do not know how to make this actionable to make money.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2787 on: April 02, 2020, 06:10:53 PM »
I seem to remember from the 2008 recession that it was the third big downturn that was the eventual low.

I suspect #2 is coming up in the next 2/3 weeks.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2788 on: April 02, 2020, 10:28:25 PM »
I seem to remember from the 2008 recession that it was the third big downturn that was the eventual low.

I suspect #2 is coming up in the next 2/3 weeks.
It could be another down leg, bounce, deeper down leg.  Still too much buying exuberance.  No blood in the streets, just cuts and bruises.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2789 on: April 02, 2020, 10:32:44 PM »
I just purchased some TDG shares for $341.625   I wanted to get in when it was $302, but missed out.  Don't know if it was a good price, but will buy some more if it goes down.


Buffett bought about $200M of it between $475-425 per share, so I feel like I got it at a good price.


I'm sure you'll get to add to it at a lower price. We have a long ways to go through all this.

We haven't found a bottom yet.  Market is bouncing on the prospect of 2 trillion being pumped into the economy.
If 47 million layoffs come we aren't even close.


Agreed! good time to be patient. Times like this I would rather risk upside than be thinking we found the bottom. At the very least we will have more down days so nothing wrong with DCA in but I've personally met these levels so waiting for now to see where we go from here.

I'm filling with as much DCA as I can handle.  If we see a deep hole.  A real teeth gnashing and jumping off buildings bottom.  Well then I'm willing to throw 500k or so in.  Just roll the dice.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2790 on: April 03, 2020, 03:27:30 AM »
I just purchased some TDG shares for $341.625   I wanted to get in when it was $302, but missed out.  Don't know if it was a good price, but will buy some more if it goes down.


Buffett bought about $200M of it between $475-425 per share, so I feel like I got it at a good price.


I'm sure you'll get to add to it at a lower price. We have a long ways to go through all this.

We haven't found a bottom yet.  Market is bouncing on the prospect of 2 trillion being pumped into the economy.
If 47 million layoffs come we aren't even close.


Agreed! good time to be patient. Times like this I would rather risk upside than be thinking we found the bottom. At the very least we will have more down days so nothing wrong with DCA in but I've personally met these levels so waiting for now to see where we go from here.

I'm filling with as much DCA as I can handle.  If we see a deep hole.  A real teeth gnashing and jumping off buildings bottom.  Well then I'm willing to throw 500k or so in.  Just roll the dice.



Thats my plan but not quite 500k! but 2-300 for sure unless I can find some big things to sell! Everyday it just seems like this is going to take much longer to get through and to the peak which more pain on the backside getting out. So plenty of good opportunities to come.  Its funny how for years everyone said dont DCA , but I dont really see any otherway to do it in times like now if you have some extra cash.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2791 on: April 03, 2020, 12:51:55 PM »
I just purchased some TDG shares for $341.625   I wanted to get in when it was $302, but missed out.  Don't know if it was a good price, but will buy some more if it goes down.


Buffett bought about $200M of it between $475-425 per share, so I feel like I got it at a good price.


I'm sure you'll get to add to it at a lower price. We have a long ways to go through all this.

We haven't found a bottom yet.  Market is bouncing on the prospect of 2 trillion being pumped into the economy.
If 47 million layoffs come we aren't even close.


Agreed! good time to be patient. Times like this I would rather risk upside than be thinking we found the bottom. At the very least we will have more down days so nothing wrong with DCA in but I've personally met these levels so waiting for now to see where we go from here.

I'm filling with as much DCA as I can handle.  If we see a deep hole.  A real teeth gnashing and jumping off buildings bottom.  Well then I'm willing to throw 500k or so in.  Just roll the dice.



Thats my plan but not quite 500k! but 2-300 for sure unless I can find some big things to sell! Everyday it just seems like this is going to take much longer to get through and to the peak which more pain on the backside getting out. So plenty of good opportunities to come.  Its funny how for years everyone said dont DCA , but I dont really see any otherway to do it in times like now if you have some extra cash.

I've always been a DCA type because I'm lazy.  I've done a little front loading but not much.  I've never had this position of cash just before a bear crash.  Just got lucky.  I'm doing so with a million in capital preservation and another 400k in a pension. I'm willing to risk half of the safe million at the bottom.  Even if I miss the absolute bottom.  I hit the time just right at the top.  Should have sold it all in hindsight.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 12:53:39 PM by Bateaux »

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2792 on: April 03, 2020, 03:58:35 PM »
DCAing is investing the same exact amount each week/month/year, and paying no attention to the markets. Spreading out market timed purchases over a longer period are not DCAing. If you had cash on the sidelines and suddenly you're putting that money into the market, even over a period of several months, that is not DCAing. That's market timing.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2793 on: April 03, 2020, 05:40:03 PM »
DCAing is investing the same exact amount each week/month/year, and paying no attention to the markets. Spreading out market timed purchases over a longer period are not DCAing. If you had cash on the sidelines and suddenly you're putting that money into the market, even over a period of several months, that is not DCAing. That's market timing.

Yep.  DCA, buy and hold is what I've done since the 90s.  This however is one of those once in a decade, or possibly lifetime opportunity.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2794 on: April 04, 2020, 09:30:19 AM »
Do any of you pay attention to large insider stock purchases?  With some stocks down to 1/3 or even 1/4 of recent highs I'm seeing some stocks with massive insider purchases. 


TDG had the $230M purchases by Robert Small, who is on their board and also on Berkshire Hathaway's board.  It was just announced that TDG is offering $1.1B in senior secured notes (bonds, right?).  They say it's for operating capital, but I wonder if they're actually planning to repurchase their stock at the discounted current prices.  Does that seem likely?  Small paid $425-475 per share, so I'd think they need to push the share price beyond that to justify his investment, unless he's in it for another reason?


I know COVID-19 is killing resorts, but I noticed MGM had 5 or 6 large insiders purchasing multi-million lots of their stock.  The price was recently down about 75% from recent highs.  I wonder how quickly MGM will bounce back from this?


Those are just a couple of insider purchases I noticed.  I'm mainly interested in your thoughts about TDG since I bought some. 


I hope you're all staying safe & enjoying your down time.

webguy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #2795 on: April 04, 2020, 12:38:46 PM »
I'd like to join to help motivate me. Currently at $540k and hope to hit the big 1M in the next couple of years.

I made it to $748k! Keep saving everybody!!

I made it to $988k and was getting excited... and then taxes hit! Looks like it'll be another few months yet :(

I finally did it!! Crawled over the line to $1,000,330 today!  Feels pretty surreal. Never thought I'd actually be worth a million dollars. Now I guess I keep on saving towards the next million!

Currently at $1.11m.  Don't really have a goal number at this point. I love running my own business so just tryna ride it out as long as possible and "make hay while the sun shines" as they say.

Passed the half way point!  Somehow we have $1.535m. Not sure how long the next 0.465 will take but I'll report back if we get there!

It took a little longer than Iíd hoped due to the market being a douchebag lately but we Just hit 2 million today! Weíre officially multi-millionaires I guess! I crunched the numbers and I think our ďfat fireĒ number is around 2.5-3M so Iíll probably keep trucking away till we hit that, then Iím not sure what Iíll do.

Can I join your thread?  We just hit 2M yesterday! And with the friendly market today we're up another 15k already!  I'm carrying over our progress from the race to 2M thread if that's OK as I like keeping track of it this way.

Felt like we got stuck around 2.3M forever but finally hit 2.5M today! Next stop 3M... and beyond!

Itís been a long time coming but finally hit 3M today! Next stop... beyond! :)

16 more pages of this thread have gone by since I last checked in but I can now report we made it to $3.5M!  I see the name of the thread has changed so I guess I have no choice but to keep going till I get past $4M now :D

I got slammed by this market like everyone else but fortunately sold a chunk of my business before everything went crazy and so am now at $4.78M after taxes. Gives me about 2.3M in cash/bonds, thinking of keeping about half of it for some private investment opportunities and then maybe slowly putting some of it into the market over the next 6 months or so!

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2796 on: April 04, 2020, 02:00:23 PM »
DCAing is investing the same exact amount each week/month/year, and paying no attention to the markets. Spreading out market timed purchases over a longer period are not DCAing. If you had cash on the sidelines and suddenly you're putting that money into the market, even over a period of several months, that is not DCAing. That's market timing.

Thanks for the definition.  I hate acronyms.  Dollar Cost Averaging.  I thought you guys were talking about a specific stock that would do exceptionally well in the hard times soon to come.

There used to be a guy named Bob Brinker on the radio (Money Talk)  who was a big proponent of this.  Here's some more definitions from his website.

http://www.bobbrinker.com/termsDEF.asp


EscapeVelocity2020

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    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #2797 on: April 04, 2020, 02:07:08 PM »
I got slammed by this market like everyone else but fortunately sold a chunk of my business before everything went crazy and so am now at $4.78M after taxes. Gives me about 2.3M in cash/bonds, thinking of keeping about half of it for some private investment opportunities and then maybe slowly putting some of it into the market over the next 6 months or so!

Sounds like you are in a pretty good position.  Are you retired then or planning to ER?

I am seriously considering ER again once this all bottoms out.  I came out of 2009 just at lean FIRE and, without making another penny, I would still be fat-FIRE.  As long as I don't screw this recession up too badly, it looks like I'll come out of it fat-FIRE (over $100k/yr on SWR 3% or less, paid off house, cars, and 529's for the kids).  But for right now, it's been really nice to have the structure and social outlet that work has provided.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2798 on: April 04, 2020, 08:37:21 PM »
DCAing is investing the same exact amount each week/month/year, and paying no attention to the markets. Spreading out market timed purchases over a longer period are not DCAing. If you had cash on the sidelines and suddenly you're putting that money into the market, even over a period of several months, that is not DCAing. That's market timing.

Thanks for the definition.  I hate acronyms.  Dollar Cost Averaging.  I thought you guys were talking about a specific stock that would do exceptionally well in the hard times soon to come.

There used to be a guy named Bob Brinker on the radio (Money Talk)  who was a big proponent of this.  Here's some more definitions from his website.

He was on every Sunday afternoon.  The lone voice in the wilderness of the 90s.   I'd never miss his show if at all  possible. Proponent of DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) and low cost Vanguard funds.  Over time you'd reach the Land of Critical Mass, (Fire).

http://www.bobbrinker.com/termsDEF.asp

He was on every Sunday afternoon.  The lone voice in the wilderness of the 90s.   I'd never miss his show if at all  possible. Proponent of DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) and low cost Vanguard funds.  Over time you'd reach the Land of Critical Mass, (Fire).
« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 09:52:27 PM by Bateaux »

webguy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #2799 on: April 04, 2020, 09:18:53 PM »
Sounds like you are in a pretty good position.  Are you retired then or planning to ER?
I think the plan is to work another 3-4 years and then cash out of the rest of the business and be done.