Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 1246766 times)

BeanCounter

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6250 on: June 19, 2022, 06:16:04 AM »
I wasn't going to look. And then I couldn't help myself.
We're down about $700k or 20%. Still in the club. Still FI. Just not pressing to beyond.

I was at our "fancy" grocery yesterday to buy some nice steaks to grill for father's day and I noticed that prices are high enough that I'm starting not to feel rich anymore. Everything feels expensive, therefore the stash number is starting to feel like "not enough".
I do realize that all of that is psychological and frankly ridiculous.

DH is still working. I'm still doing some part time contract work to keep my foot in the door. I'm not sure we really need to do any of that but he's happy working and my current projects keep me busy when the kids are at school or sports. We can't travel a lot because of the kid's school and activities anyway. And honestly, because we still have two kids at home (ages 13 and 9) our expenses are still kind of hard to predict. So as long as we aren't stressed about working it's good to have a little cushion I suppose.

So we'll keep on trucking and enjoy today and not worry about it! Speaking of which, I've got to bake a coffee cake for fathers day breakfast on the patio :)..........





arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6251 on: June 19, 2022, 09:29:19 AM »
Just read a somewhat encouraging view from BofA's grand investment sorcerer.....using past bear markets as a guide, he/she points to perhaps some more near term downside (~10%), but a hopeful return of a bull market before the end of the year (they mention October), and then they state that if the next bull run is typical, it could last 5 years and take the S&P to 6,000+.

I know we're all pretty cynical about whether these folks are any better than the flip of a coin (and I'm right there too), but it is at least somewhat interesting that this is based on historical averages.

Out of curiosity, I did a "back of the envelope" analysis of what that type of a scenario might do to my situation.  And its ok -- maybe not what I would have hoped for 6-7 months ago, but ok and could still be on track, although I don't think I'll ever be a member of the "and Beyond" crowd on this thread.

Once again, I found the exercise of modeling this scenario (albeit very, very simplistically) to be useful, at least for me.   I definitely wish I had cash on the sidelines ready to deploy over the next six months, but alas, I'm just not in that position.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6252 on: June 19, 2022, 09:38:46 AM »
Those were good days when I was briefly in the "and beyond."  Now, I find myself back on the ground, but it's solid ground and things are going to be OK.  The sun shines.  The wind blows.  The grass is green and people smile.  Things are going to be OK.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6253 on: June 19, 2022, 10:10:51 AM »
Just checked my 401k balance, and it's below $1m for the first time in a while. (My husband has his own, similarly sized account). That was depressing. I've also maxed it out for the year, and done a full back door contribution, so it's a little hard to watch. But, alas, here we are. Guess I'll go out for a hike & forget about that!
Good example, MBM. You're part of this club no matter what the market does. Your 401ks are not your only investments ;-)

I feel your pain on the pinch you're feeling for frontloading 2022, but it will all work out in the long run.

Iím adding in cash a cash position for when I Retire in July 2025.  Iím now debating on if and how much I should go back to putting into my taxable account (tax advantaged accounts are maxed out for 2022/on schedule to be maxed out in the case of the TSP).  Iím about $14k from my cash goal and I fund that with mostly found money and it should be funded by mid year next year accounting to the way Iíve been doing that lately.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6254 on: June 20, 2022, 05:22:17 AM »
Still in the club.  Down last time I checked but not horribly.  Due to OMY'ing last year I'm still a bit long cash, so have been investing some of that over the last few weeks and will do a bit more.

I'm not overly freaked out by this particular shift - though it seems hard to see a quick/easy way out of the current global situation, so I suspect we may have to suck up quite a bit more financial pain before we are through to the other side.

I suppose the more "macro" way it shifts my view is that it focuses my mind on the fact that I will be retired for potentially 50 years, and a lot can happen in that time - the world will change in ways that we can't even imagine (hopefully including some good ways).

For me the way I think about it is that I can always work more and generate value later if needed.  It's not a reason to put off my FIREing plan any more right now (still planning to pull the plug at the end of the year) - just a reason to try to remain fairly limber and flexible post-FIRE.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6255 on: June 20, 2022, 12:51:22 PM »
Those were good days when I was briefly in the "and beyond."  Now, I find myself back on the ground, but it's solid ground and things are going to be OK.  The sun shines.  The wind blows.  The grass is green and people smile.  Things are going to be OK.

Absolutely! Think abut it.. We almost melted down the economy in 2008.. Literally almost financial collapse!.. Yet in 2009 the market went of the biggest bull run ever after a 55% pullback in equities.

Heck, for most of us, even if the same thing happened we'd still be millionaires!


Allie

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6256 on: June 20, 2022, 02:44:17 PM »
I saw the post and just checkedÖweíre down 400k.  Itís a bummer, but I think weíre still FI and we have a few more years of accumulation.  We really started to get serious about accumulating in 2007, so we didnít lose much in 2008 and the rising market really helped keep us motivated and pushed us along faster than we would have otherwise experienced.  Iím anxious (nervous, excited, curious anxious not nervous) to see what happens over the next 5 years. 

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6257 on: June 21, 2022, 09:04:22 PM »
Those were good days when I was briefly in the "and beyond."  Now, I find myself back on the ground, but it's solid ground and things are going to be OK.  The sun shines.  The wind blows.  The grass is green and people smile.  Things are going to be OK.

Absolutely! Think abut it.. We almost melted down the economy in 2008.. Literally almost financial collapse!.. Yet in 2009 the market went of the biggest bull run ever after a 55% pullback in equities.

Heck, for most of us, even if the same thing happened we'd still be millionaires!

2008/2009 was a time of deep despair for us.  Son had cancer at 14.  Wife couldn't work for nearly two years because cancer treatments were out of state in Tennessee.  Gasoline was $4 a gallon!!!  It was a 400 mile drive back and forth to the hospital.  Our savings cash and retirement had taken a huge hit.  I had to be a single parent to our 12 year old in Louisiana.  I'd try and make the drive up for family time at least every other week.  The salvation was I had a big groovy conversation van with a bed in the back.  Terrible gas mileage but my son could sleep in the back on the overnight drives to see his mom and brother. 
My son survived, my wife went back to work and we were a family in one place again.  To compare this dip in the markets to that time for us... please. 

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6258 on: June 21, 2022, 09:49:05 PM »
Those were good days when I was briefly in the "and beyond."  Now, I find myself back on the ground, but it's solid ground and things are going to be OK.  The sun shines.  The wind blows.  The grass is green and people smile.  Things are going to be OK.

Absolutely! Think abut it.. We almost melted down the economy in 2008.. Literally almost financial collapse!.. Yet in 2009 the market went of the biggest bull run ever after a 55% pullback in equities.

Heck, for most of us, even if the same thing happened we'd still be millionaires!

2008/2009 was a time of deep despair for us.  Son had cancer at 14.  Wife couldn't work for nearly two years because cancer treatments were out of state in Tennessee.  Gasoline was $4 a gallon!!!  It was a 400 mile drive back and forth to the hospital.  Our savings cash and retirement had taken a huge hit.  I had to be a single parent to our 12 year old in Louisiana.  I'd try and make the drive up for family time at least every other week.  The salvation was I had a big groovy conversation van with a bed in the back.  Terrible gas mileage but my son could sleep in the back on the overnight drives to see his mom and brother. 
My son survived, my wife went back to work and we were a family in one place again.  To compare this dip in the markets to that time for us... please.

Ugh, man I couldn't imagine what you guys went through!..:(

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6259 on: June 21, 2022, 10:13:03 PM »
Those were good days when I was briefly in the "and beyond."  Now, I find myself back on the ground, but it's solid ground and things are going to be OK.  The sun shines.  The wind blows.  The grass is green and people smile.  Things are going to be OK.

Absolutely! Think abut it.. We almost melted down the economy in 2008.. Literally almost financial collapse!.. Yet in 2009 the market went of the biggest bull run ever after a 55% pullback in equities.

Heck, for most of us, even if the same thing happened we'd still be millionaires!

2008/2009 was a time of deep despair for us.  Son had cancer at 14.  Wife couldn't work for nearly two years because cancer treatments were out of state in Tennessee.  Gasoline was $4 a gallon!!!  It was a 400 mile drive back and forth to the hospital.  Our savings cash and retirement had taken a huge hit.  I had to be a single parent to our 12 year old in Louisiana.  I'd try and make the drive up for family time at least every other week.  The salvation was I had a big groovy conversation van with a bed in the back.  Terrible gas mileage but my son could sleep in the back on the overnight drives to see his mom and brother. 
My son survived, my wife went back to work and we were a family in one place again.  To compare this dip in the markets to that time for us... please.

Ugh, man I couldn't imagine what you guys went through!..:(

It's a huge part of us.  We were lucky that we had a great family and friends support group.   We were debt free going into it.  No Mr. Money Mustache back then.  We were just frugal.  We watched people lose their houses and marriages over money woes.  We certainly weren't alone.  The entire country was hurting.  I hope that was the big one for this century.   

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6260 on: June 22, 2022, 06:34:48 AM »
Wow, all this market volatility and not a peep from the Beyonders in two weeks.

Since the accepted wisdom is just to ignore the static, I wonder if that explains the calm. Are people are stepping back to previous cohorts as their NW "shrinks"? I hope not.

I'm of the persuasion that if market fluction knocks anyone out, they should still hang out here. Could it even be an incentive to stay the course? Let's see what some of our heavyweights, including this thread's founder, think.

@Car Jack, @Bateaux, @Much FishingTo Do, @Exflyboy (Yeah, we know you're busy working. Again.)

P.S. No, I haven't checked our equities and I'm not planning to. I have been tracking our RE, which is finally starting to soften just a bit, so the other shenanigans don't worry me much. As the Brits say, "Keep Calm and Carry on", right Frank?

Wow, I've never been called a heavyweight, before but I sure did pack on the COvid-19lbs....

Looks like my TNW has dropped from 4.85M at the start of the year to 4.25M (LNW about a million less on each).  Just because of coincidental timing in 2008 with big income and having no money in 2000, it looks like this will be the first time in 20 years of positive net worth that my NW might drop in a calendar year.

Oh well, 5 years ago I would have considered 4.85M and 4.25M practically the same (rounding error) so not exactly crushing.  And I do continue to work, but as it has been the last few years that's a personal problem I'm working through and not due to any market drop. 


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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6261 on: June 22, 2022, 08:19:47 AM »
@Bateaux - that really puts it all in perspective, doesn't it? So happy that your family is back together again, and that you had such a great network to help you during what must have been an incredibly difficult time.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6262 on: June 23, 2022, 04:14:56 AM »
Well.  The new TSP website did not play well integrating into my Financial Advisors website.  So I had to input it manually which meant I had to look at it.  Ouch down over $150k. 

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6263 on: June 30, 2022, 02:53:59 AM »
I keep a spreadsheet in which I keep track of my asset allocation every month, both in the tax advantaged and taxable accounts. The idea is to see if there is any need of rebalancing. The remarkable thing  I have found is that the asset allocation has barely budged despite the big decrease in the market - shows that pretty much all asset classes have been hit pretty much equally.

I typically think about this only once a month when I update my spreadsheet which I just did. We are not down a huge amount since the peak  - partly due to our conservative asset allocation and partly due to the fact that my wife is still working. Right now, our net worth is still well above the amount we had when I retired in October 2020.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6264 on: June 30, 2022, 12:25:14 PM »
Just attended a coworker's departmental retirement party.  He's getting out at 55. He's been a part time commercial fisherman, outside of his normal laboratory job for his whole life.  He worked till locking in his benefits at 55.  He'll still be a commercial fisherman because he loves it.  I'm so happy happy for his success.

In a sad note, a not too long retired former coworker passed away yesterday.  Hard to believe he's gone.  It made today a little sad and more special all at the same time.
All eyes turned to me in this room of people I've known for decades.  The comment was whose next?
Retirement, not death we hope.  But yes, it's me that will likely retire next.  Never been that guy! 
« Last Edit: June 30, 2022, 12:27:09 PM by Bateaux »

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6265 on: July 01, 2022, 02:24:24 PM »
@Bateaux , I read your story from 2008/2009 and I'm so glad things turned out positive and cannot imagine what that must have been like to go through that.   Not that it compares to your situation, but I went through a divorce about 10 years ago and I will just say that, at that time, financial independence was not even in sight -- now there is light at the end of that tunnel, even though it is brighter some days than others. 

I have been looking to history to help bring some perspective (and to try to see if we might be nearing a bottom) and when I compare this downturn to most others over the past 20 years, 2008/2009 always stands out as being far worse than this one so far.  The S&P is about 16% off its 250 day moving average today. 

As for me, my LNW still starts with a $2 as of June 30 (b-a-r-e-l-y :-)), so I'm happy about that.  This in a market that is down 20% since the beginning of the year, so I'll take it.   As we all know, if the market is down 20%, it needs to go up ~25% to get back to where it was and if I apply that math to my situation, I start to feel ok about where I am -- at least for the moment.   Looking forward to a long weekend here in the US and a vacation later in July!
« Last Edit: July 02, 2022, 05:58:33 AM by arcturus »

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6266 on: July 01, 2022, 07:28:55 PM »
@Bateaux , I read your story from 2008/2009 and I'm so glad things turned out positive and cannot imagine what that must have been like to go through that.   Not that it compares to your situation, but I went through a divorce about 10 years ago and I will just say that, at that time, financial independence was not even in sight -- now there is light at the end of that tunnel, even though it is brighter some days than others. 

I have been looking to history to help bring some perspective (and to try to see if we might be nearing a bottom) and when I compare this downturn to most others over the past 20 years, 2008/2009 always stands out as being far worse than this one so far.  The S&P is about 16% off its 250 day moving average today. 

As for me, my LNW still starts with a $2 as of June 30 (b-a-r-e-l-y :-)), so I'm happy about that.  This in a market that is down 20% since the beginning of the year, so I'll take it.   As we all know, if the market is down 20%, it needs to go up 24% to get back to where it was and if I apply that math to my situation, I start to feel ok about where I am -- at least for the moment.   Looking forward to a long weekend here in the US and a vacation later in July!

I'm glad you appreciated the life story.  I don't want to overly downplay the 2022 recession.  We still have time for a deeper dive.  However the outlook doesn't seem as bleak. 

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6267 on: July 02, 2022, 11:36:46 AM »
I had one of the advisors call me from one of the many smallish 401k plans I have and tells me "the markets are a mess right now"

To which I responded that this correction is very normal and even today the markets are UP 50% compared to 5 years ago.

"Oh so you're not worried then?"... Nope, the 50k I have in that plan is one of "a few" that I have and if the markets take another step down I'll be buying some more..:)

So no, don't think I need any "expert" advice..:)

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6268 on: July 03, 2022, 07:18:53 AM »
I had one of the advisors call me from one of the many smallish 401k plans I have and tells me "the markets are a mess right now"

To which I responded that this correction is very normal and even today the markets are UP 50% compared to 5 years ago.

"Oh so you're not worried then?"... Nope, the 50k I have in that plan is one of "a few" that I have and if the markets take another step down I'll be buying some more..:)

So no, don't think I need any "expert" advice..:)

Wow, That seems really weird an advisor called you to tell you to worry about the market.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6269 on: July 03, 2022, 08:38:04 AM »
I had one of the advisors call me from one of the many smallish 401k plans I have and tells me "the markets are a mess right now"

To which I responded that this correction is very normal and even today the markets are UP 50% compared to 5 years ago.

"Oh so you're not worried then?"... Nope, the 50k I have in that plan is one of "a few" that I have and if the markets take another step down I'll be buying some more..:)

So no, don't think I need any "expert" advice..:)

Wow, That seems really weird an advisor called you to tell you to worry about the market.

Nope.  They'll sell a product that pays them an upfront commission and residuals and comes with high fees for their agency.   Not weird at all.  Unethical, but not weird.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6270 on: July 03, 2022, 09:09:55 AM »
I had one of the advisors call me from one of the many smallish 401k plans I have and tells me "the markets are a mess right now"

To which I responded that this correction is very normal and even today the markets are UP 50% compared to 5 years ago.

"Oh so you're not worried then?"... Nope, the 50k I have in that plan is one of "a few" that I have and if the markets take another step down I'll be buying some more..:)

So no, don't think I need any "expert" advice..:)

Wow, That seems really weird an advisor called you to tell you to worry about the market.

Nope.  They'll sell a product that pays them an upfront commission and residuals and comes with high fees for their agency.   Not weird at all.  Unethical, but not weird.

Maybe, with the market sliding down it could be that business is "off."  The advisor may be resorting to cold calls to keep his business at an acceptable level.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6271 on: July 03, 2022, 11:52:00 AM »
@pecunia
I think it is basically cold calling clients.  Business is down and they are under pressure to sell something.  I really don't care for salesmen.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6272 on: July 03, 2022, 11:57:14 AM »
Hehe, Maybe what I should have said was.. "I have a total of $x,xxx,xxx and I really need somebody to help me manage all of it... I mean its overwhelming.. Do you think I could retire now?"

O even "Yeah gosh I've lost $xxx,xxx so far, what should I do?"

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6273 on: July 03, 2022, 12:00:17 PM »
Hehe, Maybe what I should have said was.. "I have a total of $x,xxx,xxx and I really need somebody to help me manage all of it... I mean its overwhelming.. Do you think I could retire now?"

O even "Yeah gosh I've lost $xxx,xxx so far, what should I do?"

FTFY

Money Badger

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6274 on: July 04, 2022, 05:05:06 AM »
Hehe, Maybe what I should have said was.. "I have a total of $x,xxx,xxx and I really need somebody to help me manage all of it... I mean its overwhelming.. Do you think I could retire now?"

O even "Yeah gosh I've lost $xxx,xxx so far, what should I do?"
The fact the advisor decided to troll your $50K sized account says it all...   Parasite thinking, "this little fish's balance is down, let me "help" him by churning the account a bit to a mutual fund with basically the same mix and collect my $50 commission so I can get to the next account in my robo-calling queue here in the call center in [someplace offshore]."
« Last Edit: July 04, 2022, 05:07:59 AM by Money Badger »

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6275 on: July 07, 2022, 04:48:20 AM »
I know I talked briefly to my FA in 2020.  I think he called all his clients to make sure we werenít freaking out.  We havenít met off schedule this year.  I guess he noted I donít freak out.

Money Badger

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6276 on: July 12, 2022, 06:49:22 PM »
Indeed.  Stoicism is solid gold.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6277 on: July 29, 2022, 02:59:51 PM »
Watched the stash drop down toward 3. Used up some cash from the stash to buy more index funds. Now climbing toward the previous peak again.

I was doing some math on potential future scenarios including future social security, potential returns on an interesting investment, 3% to 5% returns on the main stash, and other potential one-off income events. In short, we stay above 3 in all reasonable worst case scenarios. On the other hand, if we see higher returns and get the big bumps and maybe have an inheritance come in (there are 3-4 of various sizes possible) and keep working, the top end of the range is 18-20 at age 70.

Bottom line is that it leaves me really unmotivated in my work. I donít need a fancy BMW M, and most things that I ďwantĒ actually require more time at this point than money. Some are things that money could buy (e.g. kidsí treehouse), but the fun of that is actually building it with my kids. Meanwhile, DW just got her biggest paycheck ever and itís more apparent than ever that we could do just fine on her salary.

Okay, back to work (from home) before some family obligations this afternoon and a look at another investment property tonightÖ

rmorris50

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6278 on: July 29, 2022, 05:25:02 PM »
Peaked at 3.25m in Dec, and went down to 2.9. Now we popped back to 3. And this is the worse start of the year for the markets since the 70s? Seems like we should be okay.

My goal is to get through next February at my job, when bonuses are paid and I become fully vested, and DH is wrapping up his doctoral (at age 53!) and house upgrades are done. Then Iíll reevaluate.

We actually have a cash flow problem, not NW problem. One of us has to work a few more years to avoid tapping into retirement accounts early. Our after tax would cover 3-4 years at its current level, and weíd have to cover 7 years.


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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6279 on: July 29, 2022, 07:43:46 PM »
We actually have a cash flow problem, not NW problem. One of us has to work a few more years to avoid tapping into retirement accounts early. Our after tax would cover 3-4 years at its current level, and weíd have to cover 7 years.

There are a number of ways to solve your cash flow problem other than one of you working a few more years:

1.  SEPP / 72(t)
2.  Roth conversion ladder
3.  Rule of 55
4.  Live off taxable
5.  Pay the 10% EWP

Some combination of the above probably would work depending on the particulars.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6280 on: July 29, 2022, 09:30:56 PM »
Well my taxable is back into, make a donation to the DAF next year range.  It had fallen to the well, it was my goal amount for FIRE range.  36 months (slightly less) until retirement.  I definitely have a love/hate relationship with my federal pension.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6281 on: July 29, 2022, 10:50:46 PM »
I love how this group goes silent during a big drop.  No panic, no posts of frustration.  Peaceful silence.  Now that there is a little rally, people are calmly posting again.  Looks like we're down a little over 200K now from the high.  We'll see more dips, but the market is itching to recover.  Probably new highs by years end.
Anyway.  Nine more months till I grab my pack for some long distance hiking and retirement.
It's all good.

rmorris50

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6282 on: July 30, 2022, 12:44:03 AM »
We actually have a cash flow problem, not NW problem. One of us has to work a few more years to avoid tapping into retirement accounts early. Our after tax would cover 3-4 years at its current level, and weíd have to cover 7 years.

There are a number of ways to solve your cash flow problem other than one of you working a few more years:

1.  SEPP / 72(t)
2.  Roth conversion ladder
3.  Rule of 55
4.  Live off taxable
5.  Pay the 10% EWP

Some combination of the above probably would work depending on the particulars.
6. Cut expenses
7. DH doesnít want to retire and will keep working

I model a lot of these options in my handy spreadsheet. In our situation the numbers work better and better the longer at least one of us is working the next 7 years. One I reach 55 and he 60 (in 7 years) itís pretty much impossible to implode unless we put it all on red in Vegas.


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rmorris50

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6283 on: July 30, 2022, 12:50:33 AM »
I love how this group goes silent during a big drop.  No panic, no posts of frustration.  Peaceful silence.  Now that there is a little rally, people are calmly posting again.  Looks like we're down a little over 200K now from the high.  We'll see more dips, but the market is itching to recover.  Probably new highs by years end.
Anyway.  Nine more months till I grab my pack for some long distance hiking and retirement.
It's all good.
Hiking sounds incredible :-)


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Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6284 on: July 30, 2022, 03:39:55 AM »
I love how this group goes silent during a big drop.  No panic, no posts of frustration.  Peaceful silence.  Now that there is a little rally, people are calmly posting again.  Looks like we're down a little over 200K now from the high.  We'll see more dips, but the market is itching to recover.  Probably new highs by years end.
Anyway.  Nine more months till I grab my pack for some long distance hiking and retirement.
It's all good.
Okay, I'll post a frustration. This might be the last year we have earned income. When the markets slid, I wanted to fund our Roths. DH wanted to wait, sure that the markets would slide even more. Hmmm, if today's rally sticks, we will have missed that opportunity... Oh, well.

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6285 on: July 30, 2022, 03:48:49 AM »
I love how this group goes silent during a big drop.  No panic, no posts of frustration.  Peaceful silence.  Now that there is a little rally, people are calmly posting again.  Looks like we're down a little over 200K now from the high.  We'll see more dips, but the market is itching to recover.  Probably new highs by years end.
Anyway.  Nine more months till I grab my pack for some long distance hiking and retirement.
It's all good.

Many of us in this thread have been through multiple crashes/downturns. I started saving and investing in the early 1990s and I still remember how slowly my 401K and brokerage balances increased for the first five years or so. Now, that required real faith in the future.

At this point, we have considerably more in net worth than when I retired in October 2020 and that amount was already way more than we needed for retirement!

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6286 on: July 30, 2022, 08:51:37 AM »
I love how this group goes silent during a big drop.  No panic, no posts of frustration.  Peaceful silence.  Now that there is a little rally, people are calmly posting again.  Looks like we're down a little over 200K now from the high.  We'll see more dips, but the market is itching to recover.  Probably new highs by years end.
Anyway.  Nine more months till I grab my pack for some long distance hiking and retirement.
It's all good.

Just posted this over in my journal, but it's appropriate here, too.

**********

I missed doing our monthly "State of the Union" calculation at the end of last month.  The horrors!

Stock/bond investments, plus cash holdings, are down YTD.

Personal home and rental homes are up YTD.

Net worth with those changes is within a few hundred dollars difference YTD.

One of our two farms is having the land leveled.  (May already be done, it was getting close a week ago.)   In theory that raises the value of the land because more of it can be farmed and in less time, so at a lower cost.    Technically we'll still owe some of the cost of that, to be repaid over the next 7 years, with the expectation to pay it off with the increased yields.     

Since I have no real idea of how much leveling increases the farmland value, I'm just considering it a wash for now.   It's also possible that the leveling just now raised the value of the land up to the value I've considered it worth (if comparison farm values were for leveled land and ours weren't).    Close enough for now.

I'm pleased to see our 4 separate income streams working as intended.     

Our rental income went up this spring (and we raised it a lot less than comparable rents were going up.  No need to be dicks.)   Rental property values went up and will probably stay up.

Social security has done its job and medicare kicks in for me this November, so we should be saving $4k to $5k a year in health insurance costs next year.

Farm income was expected to drop to zero for two years due to the agreement we worked out with the new farmer.   Looks like we'll make a tidy sum by not planting and by improving the land.   Farmland socialism for the win!

Stocks are down for the year, as you know all too well.   But the S&P 500 is now down less than 14% YTD, which is a lot nicer than 22% down.    There are a lot of good indicators in the economy.   We've got full employment and then some which is keeping demand high, which has good implications for the economy over the long term.   We'll have to see what covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting interruptions to the world-wide economy will do.   

Our cash holdings will drop about $12K over the next three months as we pay property taxes and the annual insurance for a couple of houses that come due at the same time.   We have over $9k in the rental company checking account and expect (barring expensive repairs) to add $9k over the next three months.   Most of that expense can be deferred until the first week of January so an awkwardly timed expensive repair is a nuisance, not a cash flow problem of any note.

In other words, in a world where gobs of people have seen their net worth tumble, ours is actually being pretty stable.

And that's the comforting thought it both should be and was expected to be. :)

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6287 on: August 01, 2022, 01:46:24 PM »
Here's a little tip that I would offer up, based on what I did today.  I was feeling a little FOMO with respect to the market but yet not at all convinced its picked a direction, so I looked for a stock / ETF (I chose a stock) that I felt good about being at least 10-15% higher in a year.  Then I just bought a little -- a couple thousand $ worth.   Helped me deal mentally with the FOMO urge while not committing more heavily to a potential temporary move higher.  Just my 2 cents for the day --- probably worth the price of admission :-)

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6288 on: August 02, 2022, 05:03:56 AM »
I love how this group goes silent during a big drop.  No panic, no posts of frustration.  Peaceful silence.  Now that there is a little rally, people are calmly posting again.  Looks like we're down a little over 200K now from the high.  We'll see more dips, but the market is itching to recover.  Probably new highs by years end.
Anyway.  Nine more months till I grab my pack for some long distance hiking and retirement.
It's all good.

Many of us in this thread have been through multiple crashes/downturns. I started saving and investing in the early 1990s and I still remember how slowly my 401K and brokerage balances increased for the first five years or so. Now, that required real faith in the future.

At this point, we have considerably more in net worth than when I retired in October 2020 and that amount was already way more than we needed for retirement!

In the end the short term volatility in the market are and have always been huge compared to long term averages, but we often apply these long term averages to short term periods in our heads.  E.g. I have NEVER seen a New Years prediction for a year S&P500 move that is greater than one standard deviation (which looks like it would cover like -10% to +20%), so basically everyone always predicts fairly average moves.  I often see commentors on this site predicting their nest egg will hit its target in 2 years even when their investments greatly outweigh their annual savings, which seems odd to me given how volatile their high equity portfolio is and can very commonly drop over two years.    And perhaps the craziest example of the short term volatility is just looking at daily moves, using my average up days I can make the 4% withdraw I want in like 7 trading days.  But of course it goes up and down and its not until you look at the standard deviation for 10 year+ periods do you start seeing windows of numbers tight enough to make plans on.

But because one withdraws slowly, and the market does seem to come to roost close to those longer term averages over the length of a retirement, I have to just sit back and watch without too much worry or just not play this game.  Don't get me wrong, I've never been the one to cheer when the market drops, it does bother me, but I just look away.

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6289 on: August 08, 2022, 10:48:53 AM »
I love how this group goes silent during a big drop.  No panic, no posts of frustration.  Peaceful silence.  Now that there is a little rally, people are calmly posting again.  Looks like we're down a little over 200K now from the high.  We'll see more dips, but the market is itching to recover.  Probably new highs by years end.
Anyway.  Nine more months till I grab my pack for some long distance hiking and retirement.
It's all good.

Many of us in this thread have been through multiple crashes/downturns. I started saving and investing in the early 1990s and I still remember how slowly my 401K and brokerage balances increased for the first five years or so. Now, that required real faith in the future.

At this point, we have considerably more in net worth than when I retired in October 2020 and that amount was already way more than we needed for retirement!

In the end the short term volatility in the market are and have always been huge compared to long term averages, but we often apply these long term averages to short term periods in our heads.  E.g. I have NEVER seen a New Years prediction for a year S&P500 move that is greater than one standard deviation (which looks like it would cover like -10% to +20%), so basically everyone always predicts fairly average moves.  I often see commentors on this site predicting their nest egg will hit its target in 2 years even when their investments greatly outweigh their annual savings, which seems odd to me given how volatile their high equity portfolio is and can very commonly drop over two years.    And perhaps the craziest example of the short term volatility is just looking at daily moves, using my average up days I can make the 4% withdraw I want in like 7 trading days.  But of course it goes up and down and its not until you look at the standard deviation for 10 year+ periods do you start seeing windows of numbers tight enough to make plans on.

But because one withdraws slowly, and the market does seem to come to roost close to those longer term averages over the length of a retirement, I have to just sit back and watch without too much worry or just not play this game.  Don't get me wrong, I've never been the one to cheer when the market drops, it does bother me, but I just look away.

Well said!  I suppose I am knowingly guilty of this in the way I do set short-term goals....for example, I set a goal for where my LNW would be at the end of 2022.   Suffice it to say, I'm NOT on track to achieve that one!  But I would expect some "catch up" effect to take hold in 2023 or 2024.  As of today, the S&P is sitting at ~5% below the 250 day moving average and about 13% below the prior high. 

Only other comment is that, despite your excellent advice, I still think it would mentally difficult for me to pull the RE trigger in a year like 2022.  Which is why I am glad that (*perhaps*) this decline is happening when I'm still a couple of years away from that point.   In the back of my mind, I know its largely psychological, BUT.....there is that feeling of not wanting to kick off the retirement years by withdrawing funds that are "more expensive" based on a temporary market decline.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6290 on: August 11, 2022, 10:19:26 PM »
Well invested my August funds last week.  Now trying to figure out how I want to fund living when I max out my TSP in 2025 by middle of July.  Do I want more cash?, do I take money from investments, decisions, decision.  (July 2025 is when Iím immediate pension eligible upon retirement).

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6291 on: August 15, 2022, 09:23:14 PM »
Attended my high school reunion. The quarter of the class that showed up was a solid cross-section of the class, and they were totally chill. I didnít see a lot of one up man ship, mostly just talking, reminiscing, asking how people are doing today. Some sad stories, some life transitions (out of marriages and looking for a fresh start). Lots of family pride. It was cool to see people really enjoying each other, the evening flowing along until late. I hope everyone else felt the same way.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6292 on: August 17, 2022, 06:46:18 AM »
Finally recrossed a milestone, the 3M point.  Had a week of vacation at the Florida house and a couple of days in Tampa.  Only 270 days left till I vacation into retirement. Recently found out we'll be grandparents next Spring.  That's a life changing event itself.  My wife is so excited.   Life is good.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6293 on: August 17, 2022, 07:12:18 AM »
Finally recrossed a milestone, the 3M point.  Had a week of vacation at the Florida house and a couple of days in Tampa.  Only 270 days left till I vacation into retirement. Recently found out we'll be grandparents next Spring.  That's a life changing event itself.  My wife is so excited.   Life is good.

Counting the days - Sounds like you are ready

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6294 on: August 17, 2022, 02:14:49 PM »
Finally recrossed a milestone, the 3M point.  Had a week of vacation at the Florida house and a couple of days in Tampa.  Only 270 days left till I vacation into retirement. Recently found out we'll be grandparents next Spring.  That's a life changing event itself.  My wife is so excited.   Life is good.

Congrats for the grandkid and hope everything goes well!

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6295 on: August 17, 2022, 05:06:05 PM »
Congratulations!

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6296 on: August 17, 2022, 07:56:08 PM »
Congrats on the future human to spoil rotten then return to sender.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6297 on: August 17, 2022, 08:53:45 PM »
@Dicey.  Iím sure youíll appreciate one of my RE plans.  To volunteer at the headlands telling people to please donít feed the coyotes.  They are already fat on local small dogs.  Well or give tours at the lighthouse.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6298 on: August 18, 2022, 12:57:56 PM »
Checked valuation on some assets and updated the NW numbers.  A few months ago, I thought we were at risk of dropping back below 3, and now we're up through 3.6.  "Beyond" territory is in sight.  We're up half a million YTD, which is crazy.

I'm having trouble processing these numbers and thinking about what it means for how we choose to live our lives.  DW really wants to invest in a real estate opportunity.  It shows promise and I think it could work out well (lots of due diligence to do yet), but I just can't process more things to do with the new job still stretching my brain.  The other thing I'm feeling is that at this NW, what's the point of more money (through employment or RE development that takes a lot of work) when what I really want is 100% control over my own time?

I used to think my number was 1M.  When we crossed that, I though 2... no 2.5.  Then we blew through that, and now?  No idea.  4?  5?  I feel l still have things to give in the work world, but there's some basic hard work to be done, and entirely unmotivated to do it.

Sob, sob, sob.  We're rich, I'm feeling lazy, and I don't know what to do with myself.  First world problems...

Sorry for the disconnected thoughts.  Just needed to vent.  On with your normal programming...

Watchmaker

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6299 on: August 18, 2022, 03:18:16 PM »
I used to think my number was 1M.  When we crossed that, I though 2... no 2.5.  Then we blew through that, and now?  No idea.  4?  5?  I feel l still have things to give in the work world, but there's some basic hard work to be done, and entirely unmotivated to do it.

I had a similar trajectory. First it was 1M. Then 1.4M, 2.0M. When I got to 2.0M it was going up so fast I thought might as well get to 3, but then 4 will just be around the corner...

But then something changed in me this last year and 2.0M is feeling like enough.