Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!

[Much Fishing to Do]

If we exclude the crazy-high spending this year that was either one-off or very infrequent in nature, our wealth would have gone up $1080 a day.   As it is, it ONLY went up $860 a day.

That's after subtracting out normal expenses.

It's simply awesome.

Our liquid NW increased $1450 a day in 2021.  Hard to believe that was possible.

Now the question is how much have you given back since the first of the year? Looks like we cant keep a bounce, see what happens today.

That's what is most crazy about these numbers to me now. One answer to your question is my LNW is down 2.9% YTD, an insignificant move for an equity heavy investment portfolio.  Another answer is $110k, which seems like an extremely significant amount of money ;-)

[SwordGuy]

Yep, the S&P 500 is down to prices we haven't seen for 3 months, when those same prices were glorious highs to celebrate...

[Bateaux]

If we exclude the crazy-high spending this year that was either one-off or very infrequent in nature, our wealth would have gone up $1080 a day.   As it is, it ONLY went up $860 a day.

That's after subtracting out normal expenses.

It's simply awesome.

Our liquid NW increased $1450 a day in 2021.  Hard to believe that was possible.

Now the question is how much have you given back since the first of the year? Looks like we cant keep a bounce, see what happens today.

From the most recent highpoint, down $132K. It won't stay that way.  If there is one thing I believe in, it's American greed.  I'm still working and still buying.    I was within 300K of my mid 2023 goal and now I'm 450K from that goal.  There is still over 3 million invested.  That was the goal a year ago. 

[pecunia]

If we exclude the crazy-high spending this year that was either one-off or very infrequent in nature, our wealth would have gone up $1080 a day.   As it is, it ONLY went up $860 a day.

That's after subtracting out normal expenses.

It's simply awesome.

Our liquid NW increased $1450 a day in 2021.  Hard to believe that was possible.

Now the question is how much have you given back since the first of the year? Looks like we cant keep a bounce, see what happens today.

From the most recent highpoint, down $132K. It won't stay that way.  If there is one thing I believe in, it's American greed.  I'm still working and still buying.    I was within 300K of my mid 2023 goal and now I'm 450K from that goal.  There is still over 3 million invested.  That was the goal a year ago.

You sound like J L Collins.  "The Stock Market always goes up."  Sometimes, you just have to wait a bit.

[PhrugalPhan]

Now the question is how much have you given back since the first of the year? Looks like we cant keep a bounce, see what happens today.

I did a $30k Roth rollover today in my 457 plan.  Hopefully I hit the low point for the year - maybe I will be lucky???

[Bateaux]

If we exclude the crazy-high spending this year that was either one-off or very infrequent in nature, our wealth would have gone up $1080 a day.   As it is, it ONLY went up $860 a day.

That's after subtracting out normal expenses.

It's simply awesome.

Our liquid NW increased $1450 a day in 2021.  Hard to believe that was possible.

Now the question is how much have you given back since the first of the year? Looks like we cant keep a bounce, see what happens today.

From the most recent highpoint, down $132K. It won't stay that way.  If there is one thing I believe in, it's American greed.  I'm still working and still buying.    I was within 300K of my mid 2023 goal and now I'm 450K from that goal.  There is still over 3 million invested.  That was the goal a year ago.

You sound like J L Collins.  "The Stock Market always goes up."  Sometimes, you just have to wait a bit.

Yep.  I love JL.  When sitting at 2M the goal was 2.5M.  At 2.5M it became 3M.  At 3M it became 3.5M
The market just kept moving the goal posts.  The end date is set, May 15 of 2023.  I doubt I'll have to wait because of money.

[SwordGuy]

When sitting at 2M the goal was 2.5M.  At 2.5M it became 3M.  At 3M it became 3.5M
The market just kept moving the goal posts.  The end date is set, May 15 of 2023.  I doubt I'll have to wait because of money.

We all witnessed those goalposts being moved in this thread and I'm pretty darn sure it wasn't the market doing the moving of them...   :)

[Dicey]

When sitting at 2M the goal was 2.5M.  At 2.5M it became 3M.  At 3M it became 3.5M
The market just kept moving the goal posts.  The end date is set, May 15 of 2023.  I doubt I'll have to wait because of money.

We all witnessed those goalposts being moved in this thread and I'm pretty darn sure it wasn't the market doing the moving of them...   :)

LOL.

[Fomerly known as something]

I am hopping to do some tax loss harvesting come Feb 1.  Can’t do it now because I reinvested dividends on 12/31.

[soccerluvof4]

When it feels like your rolling down the window and throwing 25-40k out the Window a day and not sweating it ,  it kinda feels like a big monopoly game. In any note I am glad I did my balancing right after first of the year before the drop though I would of had to many gains to get down to the 65/35 I like so am at 67/33 BUT getting close to put some of my extra cash to work I have been sitting on and even that I will DCA in. I still have a lot of Projects to get done and now medical bills to pay.

[rmorris50]

Well, you know, I HAVE to get the house upgrades done before pulling the trigger #lifestylecreep.

I am committed to a break tho once my current gig ends. I expect to be phased out at some point given how finance works, so I’ll keep riding the roller coaster until they kick me off.


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[DaTrill]

Now the question is how much have you given back since the first of the year? Looks like we cant keep a bounce, see what happens today.

I'm hoping for a deep, deep drop for the next few weeks.   Had to rollover a 401k to an IRA and the paper check is in the mail to Vanguard.  A big drop for a few weeks would make us a pretty penny when prices recover.

All of which means the top is not yet in.  Bound to be a huge spike that will drive up the price on the day it converts back to shares.

Be careful what you wish for, stocks can stay down for decades. 

[DaTrill]

Probably won't make it to $4 mil anytime soon.  Went from 98/2 for the last 5+ years to 55/45 and might go to 50/50 shortly, taking all the gains from March 2020 off the table.  Won't buy the dip as I did early in February and March of 2020.   

This "party" reminds me of a house party years ago, where the police show up at around 12:00 (March 2020) and tell everyone to keep the noise down.  This lasts for about 30 minutes, another neighbor (inflation) calls the police again and at around 1:00 am, everyone sees the cop car out front (January) and knows the party is over.  The smart people, not too drunk (greedy) slink out the back and live to survive another party in the future.  The dumb (greedy) keep drinking and eventually get taken to a drunk tank (sell off).  Police (Fed) could give another warning, but IMHO, the party is over. 

If you are past your goalpost, sell and realize you probably have more cash and equity than you did in March 2020.  I'd sell all equity past the goalpost at a minimum.  If market keeps going up, keep selling.  If the market tanks, you will be thankful the Fed didn't break up the party in March 2020 (S&P @2200) or back in 2009 (S&P 500 @ 700) as they should have after the GFC had passed.  Even at 2100 today S&P 500 would be up 200% in 12 years, which is a great historical return.  At a peak of 4800, S&P 500 was up over 600% from bottom in March of 2009.           

[pecunia]

Probably won't make it to $4 mil anytime soon.  Went from 98/2 for the last 5+ years to 55/45 and might go to 50/50 shortly, taking all the gains from March 2020 off the table.  Won't buy the dip as I did early in February and March of 2020.   

This "party" reminds me of a house party years ago, where the police show up at around 12:00 (March 2020) and tell everyone to keep the noise down.  This lasts for about 30 minutes, another neighbor (inflation) calls the police again and at around 1:00 am, everyone sees the cop car out front (January) and knows the party is over.  The smart people, not too drunk (greedy) slink out the back and live to survive another party in the future.  The dumb (greedy) keep drinking and eventually get taken to a drunk tank (sell off).  Police (Fed) could give another warning, but IMHO, the party is over. 

If you are past your goalpost, sell and realize you probably have more cash and equity than you did in March 2020.  I'd sell all equity past the goalpost at a minimum.  If market keeps going up, keep selling.  If the market tanks, you will be thankful the Fed didn't break up the party in March 2020 (S&P @2200) or back in 2009 (S&P 500 @ 700) as they should have after the GFC had passed.  Even at 2100 today S&P 500 would be up 200% in 12 years, which is a great historical return.  At a peak of 4800, S&P 500 was up over 600% from bottom in March of 2009.           

What do advocates of the 4 percent rule say? Should we stay the course with our eyes on a golden horizon?  Should we be happy that we are past the original goalpost?

[secondcor521]

What do advocates of the 4 percent rule say? Should we stay the course with our eyes on a golden horizon?  Should we be happy that we are past the original goalpost?

There are several schools of thought on this.

Some people would advocate for dialing back risk.  You've won the game and all that.

My view is that I can divide my FIRE stash into two piles:  the first pile is money I'll spend in my lifetime, and the second pile is money that I won't get to (because I have more than I need).

While I don't know exactly how much is in pile one, I can make an educated guess and keep that guess updated from time to time.  In fact, I basically take my annual spending rate and multiply by 25 for my estimate.  I invest pile one according to my AA based on my goals, risk profile, planning horizon, etc.

Pile two is money that my kids will get, probably 30 years from now.  Accordingly, this pile is invested in the way that I think will be best for them given that time horizon, their risk profile, etc.

I don't actually physically divide my money, but I do the above math and then can figure out what the overall blended AA should be and make that my target.

[itchyfeet]

Probably won't make it to $4 mil anytime soon.  Went from 98/2 for the last 5+ years to 55/45 and might go to 50/50 shortly, taking all the gains from March 2020 off the table.  Won't buy the dip as I did early in February and March of 2020.   

This "party" reminds me of a house party years ago, where the police show up at around 12:00 (March 2020) and tell everyone to keep the noise down.  This lasts for about 30 minutes, another neighbor (inflation) calls the police again and at around 1:00 am, everyone sees the cop car out front (January) and knows the party is over.  The smart people, not too drunk (greedy) slink out the back and live to survive another party in the future.  The dumb (greedy) keep drinking and eventually get taken to a drunk tank (sell off).  Police (Fed) could give another warning, but IMHO, the party is over. 

If you are past your goalpost, sell and realize you probably have more cash and equity than you did in March 2020.  I'd sell all equity past the goalpost at a minimum.  If market keeps going up, keep selling.  If the market tanks, you will be thankful the Fed didn't break up the party in March 2020 (S&P @2200) or back in 2009 (S&P 500 @ 700) as they should have after the GFC had passed.  Even at 2100 today S&P 500 would be up 200% in 12 years, which is a great historical return.  At a peak of 4800, S&P 500 was up over 600% from bottom in March of 2009.           

Nice tale, but I am not convinced that you can time the market so I wont be slinking out the back door and will keep on boozing away.
In any case I dont need to be sober for 5 more years as I have enough cash/ fixed interest deposits to see me until 2027, and my employer has just promised to deliver another keg to the party next month in the form of my 2021 bonus.
Party on!!!
We will see whether I choose rehab or hair of the dog come 2027.

[Bateaux]

Looks like we've dipped ever so slightly below 3 million.  The emergency fund would kick us above, but I don't count emergency funds in the NW, it's in cash and thus worthless.  I've actually enjoyed this little dip.  I'd like to see a bit deeper correction.  Investors, need a little mental adjustment period.  I'm an inflation hawk and would rather see the irrational exuberance quelled than rampant inflation.   We're in our October "low period" range.  Still one third of a million dollars higher than this day last year according to Mint. 
Anyway.  Frost on the ground at our Florida home.  It's a brisk 29 degrees and the sun 🌞 is bright.  Beautiful Monday.  Coffee is brewing and I'm making french toast.  Life is good.

[BeanCounter]

Probably won't make it to $4 mil anytime soon.  Went from 98/2 for the last 5+ years to 55/45 and might go to 50/50 shortly, taking all the gains from March 2020 off the table.  Won't buy the dip as I did early in February and March of 2020.   

This "party" reminds me of a house party years ago, where the police show up at around 12:00 (March 2020) and tell everyone to keep the noise down.  This lasts for about 30 minutes, another neighbor (inflation) calls the police again and at around 1:00 am, everyone sees the cop car out front (January) and knows the party is over.  The smart people, not too drunk (greedy) slink out the back and live to survive another party in the future.  The dumb (greedy) keep drinking and eventually get taken to a drunk tank (sell off).  Police (Fed) could give another warning, but IMHO, the party is over. 

If you are past your goalpost, sell and realize you probably have more cash and equity than you did in March 2020.  I'd sell all equity past the goalpost at a minimum.  If market keeps going up, keep selling.  If the market tanks, you will be thankful the Fed didn't break up the party in March 2020 (S&P @2200) or back in 2009 (S&P 500 @ 700) as they should have after the GFC had passed.  Even at 2100 today S&P 500 would be up 200% in 12 years, which is a great historical return.  At a peak of 4800, S&P 500 was up over 600% from bottom in March of 2009.           

If your past your goalpost it doesn't matter what happens, you have enough to ride the market dips and that helps you not lose to inflation.

I'm 44. When I retired last year we moved to a 80/15/5 split. That 5% of cash gives me 2.5 years of expenses to live off of while things recover. And I've got another 7.5 years in bonds. That's 10 years of money in cash and bonds even if I do nothing to curtail my expenses during that time.

We've got >$1M in taxable accounts anyway so some of the decision is made for us because selling would incur more tax liability than we would want to pay.

[rmorris50]

Well, Saturday night my better half and I went out for a full course steak dinner with bottle of wine, $250 with tip. Last night went to our favorite upscale diner, two rounds of beers, dinner and tip, $85. Life ain’t bad. We’ll just buckle up and mentally put our hands up and scream as we keep riding this stock market roller coaster.


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[Dicey]

Looks like we've dipped ever so slightly below 3 million.  The emergency fund would kick us above, but I don't count emergency funds in the NW it's in cash and thus worthless.  I've actually enjoyed this little dip.  I'd like to see a bit deeper correction.  Investors, need a little mental adjustment period.  I'm an inflation hawk and would rather see the irrational exuberance quelled than rampant inflation.   We're in our October "low period" range.  Still one third of a million dollars higher than this day last year according to Mint. 
Anyway.  Frost on the ground at our Florida home.  It's a brisk 29 degrees and the sun 🌞 is bright.  Beautiful Monday.  Coffee is brewing and I'm making french toast.  Life is good.

You can send some of that worthless stuff my way, I'll figure out some way to use it up ;-)

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Well, Saturday night my better half and I went out for a full course steak dinner with bottle of wine, $250 with tip. Last night went to our favorite upscale diner, two rounds of beers, dinner and tip, $85. Life ain’t bad. We’ll just buckle up and mentally put our hands up and scream as we keep riding this stock market roller coaster.

Either you're still drunk or maybe you mixed up what forum you are posting to - even if you're at $4M and 3% SWR, you can't possibly afford to live like that :)  But on a more serious note, how can those peasants afford pitchforks and torches at the wages we pay them?

[rmorris50]

Let’s just not pull a Jeff Bezos, who thanked his employees for making his dream come true to take a trip into space.


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[Bateaux]

Looks like we've dipped ever so slightly below 3 million.  The emergency fund would kick us above, but I don't count emergency funds in the NW it's in cash and thus worthless.  I've actually enjoyed this little dip.  I'd like to see a bit deeper correction.  Investors, need a little mental adjustment period.  I'm an inflation hawk and would rather see the irrational exuberance quelled than rampant inflation.   We're in our October "low period" range.  Still one third of a million dollars higher than this day last year according to Mint. 
Anyway.  Frost on the ground at our Florida home.  It's a brisk 29 degrees and the sun 🌞 is bright.  Beautiful Monday.  Coffee is brewing and I'm making french toast.  Life is good.

You can send some of that worthless stuff my way, I'll figure out some way to use it up ;-)

Emergency fund money is just like cars, boats, RVs,etc.  All of it loses money.  It has value, but not as much five years down the road. 

[pecunia]

I haven't checked but cold weather and snow show that Ive dipped out of the "......and  beyond."  Looking at the grey sky and snow tells me I'm out of the "......and beyond" and probably landed in the Twilight Zone.

[DaTrill]

Probably won't make it to $4 mil anytime soon.  Went from 98/2 for the last 5+ years to 55/45 and might go to 50/50 shortly, taking all the gains from March 2020 off the table.  Won't buy the dip as I did early in February and March of 2020.   

This "party" reminds me of a house party years ago, where the police show up at around 12:00 (March 2020) and tell everyone to keep the noise down.  This lasts for about 30 minutes, another neighbor (inflation) calls the police again and at around 1:00 am, everyone sees the cop car out front (January) and knows the party is over.  The smart people, not too drunk (greedy) slink out the back and live to survive another party in the future.  The dumb (greedy) keep drinking and eventually get taken to a drunk tank (sell off).  Police (Fed) could give another warning, but IMHO, the party is over. 

If you are past your goalpost, sell and realize you probably have more cash and equity than you did in March 2020.  I'd sell all equity past the goalpost at a minimum.  If market keeps going up, keep selling.  If the market tanks, you will be thankful the Fed didn't break up the party in March 2020 (S&P @2200) or back in 2009 (S&P 500 @ 700) as they should have after the GFC had passed.  Even at 2100 today S&P 500 would be up 200% in 12 years, which is a great historical return.  At a peak of 4800, S&P 500 was up over 600% from bottom in March of 2009.           

What do advocates of the 4 percent rule say? Should we stay the course with our eyes on a golden horizon?  Should we be happy that we are past the original goalpost?

4% is like driving while looking thru the rearview mirror.  There are several assumptions underlying the 4% rule which are not guaranteed to be true going forward, volatility of returns and distribution of future returns (skewed or normal).  With bond yields near 1%, I'd advocate a 1% SWR, when rates are near 4%, SWR of 4% will work.

I can only comment on what I did.  I went all cash at my SWR and kept money in the market I probably won't need, assuming toilet paper doesn't cost $100/roll in a few years due to inflation.         

[DaTrill]

What do advocates of the 4 percent rule say? Should we stay the course with our eyes on a golden horizon?  Should we be happy that we are past the original goalpost?

There are several schools of thought on this.

Some people would advocate for dialing back risk.  You've won the game and all that.

My view is that I can divide my FIRE stash into two piles:  the first pile is money I'll spend in my lifetime, and the second pile is money that I won't get to (because I have more than I need).

While I don't know exactly how much is in pile one, I can make an educated guess and keep that guess updated from time to time.  In fact, I basically take my annual spending rate and multiply by 25 for my estimate.  I invest pile one according to my AA based on my goals, risk profile, planning horizon, etc.

Pile two is money that my kids will get, probably 30 years from now.  Accordingly, this pile is invested in the way that I think will be best for them given that time horizon, their risk profile, etc.

I don't actually physically divide my money, but I do the above math and then can figure out what the overall blended AA should be and make that my target.

Good idea to have piles, where one pile is likely never to be used in one's lifetime. 

[DaTrill]

Probably won't make it to $4 mil anytime soon.  Went from 98/2 for the last 5+ years to 55/45 and might go to 50/50 shortly, taking all the gains from March 2020 off the table.  Won't buy the dip as I did early in February and March of 2020.   

This "party" reminds me of a house party years ago, where the police show up at around 12:00 (March 2020) and tell everyone to keep the noise down.  This lasts for about 30 minutes, another neighbor (inflation) calls the police again and at around 1:00 am, everyone sees the cop car out front (January) and knows the party is over.  The smart people, not too drunk (greedy) slink out the back and live to survive another party in the future.  The dumb (greedy) keep drinking and eventually get taken to a drunk tank (sell off).  Police (Fed) could give another warning, but IMHO, the party is over. 

If you are past your goalpost, sell and realize you probably have more cash and equity than you did in March 2020.  I'd sell all equity past the goalpost at a minimum.  If market keeps going up, keep selling.  If the market tanks, you will be thankful the Fed didn't break up the party in March 2020 (S&P @2200) or back in 2009 (S&P 500 @ 700) as they should have after the GFC had passed.  Even at 2100 today S&P 500 would be up 200% in 12 years, which is a great historical return.  At a peak of 4800, S&P 500 was up over 600% from bottom in March of 2009.           

Nice tale, but I am not convinced that you can time the market so I wont be slinking out the back door and will keep on boozing away.
In any case I dont need to be sober for 5 more years as I have enough cash/ fixed interest deposits to see me until 2027, and my employer has just promised to deliver another keg to the party next month in the form of my 2021 bonus.
Party on!!!
We will see whether I choose rehab or hair of the dog come 2027.

Nobody can predict when/where lighting strikes, but if your house gets hit, do you run outside or repeat "Nobody can predict a lighting strike" and finish watching "The Bachelor"? 

I went from a 5-year stash to a lifetime stash last week.  There are mechanical issues with a market when it sells off this much over a few weeks that can't be undone.  The Fed could start buying stocks, but this will just turn our markets into Japan and prolong the pain.     

[DaTrill]

Probably won't make it to $4 mil anytime soon.  Went from 98/2 for the last 5+ years to 55/45 and might go to 50/50 shortly, taking all the gains from March 2020 off the table.  Won't buy the dip as I did early in February and March of 2020.   

This "party" reminds me of a house party years ago, where the police show up at around 12:00 (March 2020) and tell everyone to keep the noise down.  This lasts for about 30 minutes, another neighbor (inflation) calls the police again and at around 1:00 am, everyone sees the cop car out front (January) and knows the party is over.  The smart people, not too drunk (greedy) slink out the back and live to survive another party in the future.  The dumb (greedy) keep drinking and eventually get taken to a drunk tank (sell off).  Police (Fed) could give another warning, but IMHO, the party is over. 

If you are past your goalpost, sell and realize you probably have more cash and equity than you did in March 2020.  I'd sell all equity past the goalpost at a minimum.  If market keeps going up, keep selling.  If the market tanks, you will be thankful the Fed didn't break up the party in March 2020 (S&P @2200) or back in 2009 (S&P 500 @ 700) as they should have after the GFC had passed.  Even at 2100 today S&P 500 would be up 200% in 12 years, which is a great historical return.  At a peak of 4800, S&P 500 was up over 600% from bottom in March of 2009.           

If your past your goalpost it doesn't matter what happens, you have enough to ride the market dips and that helps you not lose to inflation.

I'm 44. When I retired last year we moved to a 80/15/5 split. That 5% of cash gives me 2.5 years of expenses to live off of while things recover. And I've got another 7.5 years in bonds. That's 10 years of money in cash and bonds even if I do nothing to curtail my expenses during that time.

We've got >$1M in taxable accounts anyway so some of the decision is made for us because selling would incur more tax liability than we would want to pay.

Very true about inflation.  I will FIRE this year when WFH ends (was told at the end of 2022 but could change anytime).  Was planning to build cash in a tax advantaged way during the year, but just pulled the plug last week.  Everyone should follow their own instincts but I've always had a larger cash stash even when working and went near lifetime stash, assuming toilet paper doesn't cost $100/roll soon.  Still have more equity in the markets than I did in March 2020, but basically took all these gains off the table as IMHO, the Fed was responsible for most of these gains and now ending the party.  Only time will tell, but my preference is to be safe rather than sorry.   

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Probably won't make it to $4 mil anytime soon.  Went from 98/2 for the last 5+ years to 55/45 and might go to 50/50 shortly, taking all the gains from March 2020 off the table.  Won't buy the dip as I did early in February and March of 2020.   

This "party" reminds me of a house party years ago, where the police show up at around 12:00 (March 2020) and tell everyone to keep the noise down.  This lasts for about 30 minutes, another neighbor (inflation) calls the police again and at around 1:00 am, everyone sees the cop car out front (January) and knows the party is over.  The smart people, not too drunk (greedy) slink out the back and live to survive another party in the future.  The dumb (greedy) keep drinking and eventually get taken to a drunk tank (sell off).  Police (Fed) could give another warning, but IMHO, the party is over. 

If you are past your goalpost, sell and realize you probably have more cash and equity than you did in March 2020.  I'd sell all equity past the goalpost at a minimum.  If market keeps going up, keep selling.  If the market tanks, you will be thankful the Fed didn't break up the party in March 2020 (S&P @2200) or back in 2009 (S&P 500 @ 700) as they should have after the GFC had passed.  Even at 2100 today S&P 500 would be up 200% in 12 years, which is a great historical return.  At a peak of 4800, S&P 500 was up over 600% from bottom in March of 2009.           

If your past your goalpost it doesn't matter what happens, you have enough to ride the market dips and that helps you not lose to inflation.

I'm 44. When I retired last year we moved to a 80/15/5 split. That 5% of cash gives me 2.5 years of expenses to live off of while things recover. And I've got another 7.5 years in bonds. That's 10 years of money in cash and bonds even if I do nothing to curtail my expenses during that time.

We've got >$1M in taxable accounts anyway so some of the decision is made for us because selling would incur more tax liability than we would want to pay.

Very true about inflation.  I will FIRE this year when WFH ends (was told at the end of 2022 but could change anytime).  Was planning to build cash in a tax advantaged way during the year, but just pulled the plug last week.  Everyone should follow their own instincts but I've always had a larger cash stash even when working and went near lifetime stash, assuming toilet paper doesn't cost $100/roll soon.  Still have more equity in the markets than I did in March 2020, but basically took all these gains off the table as IMHO, the Fed was responsible for most of these gains and now ending the party.  Only time will tell, but my preference is to be safe rather than sorry.   

Cash is going to lose whatever the inflation % is in purchasing power.  There are certainly other things to own than one giant pile of cash, like buying I-bonds each year, TIPS, real estate...  I hope you have a plan with something other than cash for 30 years.

[BeanCounter]

Probably won't make it to $4 mil anytime soon.  Went from 98/2 for the last 5+ years to 55/45 and might go to 50/50 shortly, taking all the gains from March 2020 off the table.  Won't buy the dip as I did early in February and March of 2020.   

This "party" reminds me of a house party years ago, where the police show up at around 12:00 (March 2020) and tell everyone to keep the noise down.  This lasts for about 30 minutes, another neighbor (inflation) calls the police again and at around 1:00 am, everyone sees the cop car out front (January) and knows the party is over.  The smart people, not too drunk (greedy) slink out the back and live to survive another party in the future.  The dumb (greedy) keep drinking and eventually get taken to a drunk tank (sell off).  Police (Fed) could give another warning, but IMHO, the party is over. 

If you are past your goalpost, sell and realize you probably have more cash and equity than you did in March 2020.  I'd sell all equity past the goalpost at a minimum.  If market keeps going up, keep selling.  If the market tanks, you will be thankful the Fed didn't break up the party in March 2020 (S&P @2200) or back in 2009 (S&P 500 @ 700) as they should have after the GFC had passed.  Even at 2100 today S&P 500 would be up 200% in 12 years, which is a great historical return.  At a peak of 4800, S&P 500 was up over 600% from bottom in March of 2009.           

If your past your goalpost it doesn't matter what happens, you have enough to ride the market dips and that helps you not lose to inflation.

I'm 44. When I retired last year we moved to a 80/15/5 split. That 5% of cash gives me 2.5 years of expenses to live off of while things recover. And I've got another 7.5 years in bonds. That's 10 years of money in cash and bonds even if I do nothing to curtail my expenses during that time.

We've got >$1M in taxable accounts anyway so some of the decision is made for us because selling would incur more tax liability than we would want to pay.

Very true about inflation.  I will FIRE this year when WFH ends (was told at the end of 2022 but could change anytime).  Was planning to build cash in a tax advantaged way during the year, but just pulled the plug last week.  Everyone should follow their own instincts but I've always had a larger cash stash even when working and went near lifetime stash, assuming toilet paper doesn't cost $100/roll soon.  Still have more equity in the markets than I did in March 2020, but basically took all these gains off the table as IMHO, the Fed was responsible for most of these gains and now ending the party.  Only time will tell, but my preference is to be safe rather than sorry.   

Wait. Am I reading this right? You sold 30 years worth of expenses in taxable equity accounts? In one go? Tell me I’m misunderstanding! That can’t be right.

[DaTrill]

Probably won't make it to $4 mil anytime soon.  Went from 98/2 for the last 5+ years to 55/45 and might go to 50/50 shortly, taking all the gains from March 2020 off the table.  Won't buy the dip as I did early in February and March of 2020.   

This "party" reminds me of a house party years ago, where the police show up at around 12:00 (March 2020) and tell everyone to keep the noise down.  This lasts for about 30 minutes, another neighbor (inflation) calls the police again and at around 1:00 am, everyone sees the cop car out front (January) and knows the party is over.  The smart people, not too drunk (greedy) slink out the back and live to survive another party in the future.  The dumb (greedy) keep drinking and eventually get taken to a drunk tank (sell off).  Police (Fed) could give another warning, but IMHO, the party is over. 

If you are past your goalpost, sell and realize you probably have more cash and equity than you did in March 2020.  I'd sell all equity past the goalpost at a minimum.  If market keeps going up, keep selling.  If the market tanks, you will be thankful the Fed didn't break up the party in March 2020 (S&P @2200) or back in 2009 (S&P 500 @ 700) as they should have after the GFC had passed.  Even at 2100 today S&P 500 would be up 200% in 12 years, which is a great historical return.  At a peak of 4800, S&P 500 was up over 600% from bottom in March of 2009.           

If your past your goalpost it doesn't matter what happens, you have enough to ride the market dips and that helps you not lose to inflation.

I'm 44. When I retired last year we moved to a 80/15/5 split. That 5% of cash gives me 2.5 years of expenses to live off of while things recover. And I've got another 7.5 years in bonds. That's 10 years of money in cash and bonds even if I do nothing to curtail my expenses during that time.

We've got >$1M in taxable accounts anyway so some of the decision is made for us because selling would incur more tax liability than we would want to pay.

Very true about inflation.  I will FIRE this year when WFH ends (was told at the end of 2022 but could change anytime).  Was planning to build cash in a tax advantaged way during the year, but just pulled the plug last week.  Everyone should follow their own instincts but I've always had a larger cash stash even when working and went near lifetime stash, assuming toilet paper doesn't cost $100/roll soon.  Still have more equity in the markets than I did in March 2020, but basically took all these gains off the table as IMHO, the Fed was responsible for most of these gains and now ending the party.  Only time will tell, but my preference is to be safe rather than sorry.   

Wait. Am I reading this right? You sold 30 years worth of expenses in taxable equity accounts? In one go? Tell me I’m misunderstanding! That can’t be right.

Mostly in IRAs some in taxable.  Still have equity exposure, almost the same as March 2020, but will happily pay 15% LTCG on 100%+ return from that point.   

[DaTrill]

Probably won't make it to $4 mil anytime soon.  Went from 98/2 for the last 5+ years to 55/45 and might go to 50/50 shortly, taking all the gains from March 2020 off the table.  Won't buy the dip as I did early in February and March of 2020.   

This "party" reminds me of a house party years ago, where the police show up at around 12:00 (March 2020) and tell everyone to keep the noise down.  This lasts for about 30 minutes, another neighbor (inflation) calls the police again and at around 1:00 am, everyone sees the cop car out front (January) and knows the party is over.  The smart people, not too drunk (greedy) slink out the back and live to survive another party in the future.  The dumb (greedy) keep drinking and eventually get taken to a drunk tank (sell off).  Police (Fed) could give another warning, but IMHO, the party is over. 

If you are past your goalpost, sell and realize you probably have more cash and equity than you did in March 2020.  I'd sell all equity past the goalpost at a minimum.  If market keeps going up, keep selling.  If the market tanks, you will be thankful the Fed didn't break up the party in March 2020 (S&P @2200) or back in 2009 (S&P 500 @ 700) as they should have after the GFC had passed.  Even at 2100 today S&P 500 would be up 200% in 12 years, which is a great historical return.  At a peak of 4800, S&P 500 was up over 600% from bottom in March of 2009.           

If your past your goalpost it doesn't matter what happens, you have enough to ride the market dips and that helps you not lose to inflation.

I'm 44. When I retired last year we moved to a 80/15/5 split. That 5% of cash gives me 2.5 years of expenses to live off of while things recover. And I've got another 7.5 years in bonds. That's 10 years of money in cash and bonds even if I do nothing to curtail my expenses during that time.

We've got >$1M in taxable accounts anyway so some of the decision is made for us because selling would incur more tax liability than we would want to pay.

Very true about inflation.  I will FIRE this year when WFH ends (was told at the end of 2022 but could change anytime).  Was planning to build cash in a tax advantaged way during the year, but just pulled the plug last week.  Everyone should follow their own instincts but I've always had a larger cash stash even when working and went near lifetime stash, assuming toilet paper doesn't cost $100/roll soon.  Still have more equity in the markets than I did in March 2020, but basically took all these gains off the table as IMHO, the Fed was responsible for most of these gains and now ending the party.  Only time will tell, but my preference is to be safe rather than sorry.   

Cash is going to lose whatever the inflation % is in purchasing power.  There are certainly other things to own than one giant pile of cash, like buying I-bonds each year, TIPS, real estate...  I hope you have a plan with something other than cash for 30 years.

Yep, but no rush.  Will get back into markets when Fed stops QT and rates are normalized.  May roll CD's when rates are above 1%. 

[rmorris50]

Well today was a literal roller coaster.


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[SwordGuy]

Well today was a literal roller coaster.

Yep, all the way back to July valuations, which incidentally were so high we were all celebrating...

[swaneesr]

Hello everyone.

DW and I qualify I guess for this club. We ended 2021 at a liquid net worth of xxxMM.  We have another xxxMM in property in a medium COL area.

I made the mistake of watching the market today. It was a roller coaster. I do not have the temperament to watch the market on a daily basis. Too much drama.

I increased my savings rate during all the past market drops going back to the early 90’s.

This may be a buying opportunity?  I guess we will know in six months or a year how all this shakes out.

All I know for sure is I can not predict the market and I am usually wrong.

SwaneeSR


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[Visitation]

Market corrections of 10% to 15% are a healthy part of the cycle.   So long as they don't turn into a bear market, which we won't know until it does or doesn't.   But Roth conversions are on sale!

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[EscapeVelocity2020]

Probably won't make it to $4 mil anytime soon.  Went from 98/2 for the last 5+ years to 55/45 and might go to 50/50 shortly, taking all the gains from March 2020 off the table.  Won't buy the dip as I did early in February and March of 2020.   

This "party" reminds me of a house party years ago, where the police show up at around 12:00 (March 2020) and tell everyone to keep the noise down.  This lasts for about 30 minutes, another neighbor (inflation) calls the police again and at around 1:00 am, everyone sees the cop car out front (January) and knows the party is over.  The smart people, not too drunk (greedy) slink out the back and live to survive another party in the future.  The dumb (greedy) keep drinking and eventually get taken to a drunk tank (sell off).  Police (Fed) could give another warning, but IMHO, the party is over. 

If you are past your goalpost, sell and realize you probably have more cash and equity than you did in March 2020.  I'd sell all equity past the goalpost at a minimum.  If market keeps going up, keep selling.  If the market tanks, you will be thankful the Fed didn't break up the party in March 2020 (S&P @2200) or back in 2009 (S&P 500 @ 700) as they should have after the GFC had passed.  Even at 2100 today S&P 500 would be up 200% in 12 years, which is a great historical return.  At a peak of 4800, S&P 500 was up over 600% from bottom in March of 2009.           

If your past your goalpost it doesn't matter what happens, you have enough to ride the market dips and that helps you not lose to inflation.

I'm 44. When I retired last year we moved to a 80/15/5 split. That 5% of cash gives me 2.5 years of expenses to live off of while things recover. And I've got another 7.5 years in bonds. That's 10 years of money in cash and bonds even if I do nothing to curtail my expenses during that time.

We've got >$1M in taxable accounts anyway so some of the decision is made for us because selling would incur more tax liability than we would want to pay.

Very true about inflation.  I will FIRE this year when WFH ends (was told at the end of 2022 but could change anytime).  Was planning to build cash in a tax advantaged way during the year, but just pulled the plug last week.  Everyone should follow their own instincts but I've always had a larger cash stash even when working and went near lifetime stash, assuming toilet paper doesn't cost $100/roll soon.  Still have more equity in the markets than I did in March 2020, but basically took all these gains off the table as IMHO, the Fed was responsible for most of these gains and now ending the party.  Only time will tell, but my preference is to be safe rather than sorry.   

Cash is going to lose whatever the inflation % is in purchasing power.  There are certainly other things to own than one giant pile of cash, like buying I-bonds each year, TIPS, real estate...  I hope you have a plan with something other than cash for 30 years.

Yep, but no rush.  Will get back into markets when Fed stops QT and rates are normalized.  May roll CD's when rates are above 1%.

Please do tell us when you are buying and what assets.  Otherwise DaTrill might just be Da Troll, LOL

[rmorris50]

WSJ - “The DOW has never before closed positive after being down 1000 points”.




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[rmorris50]

Well today was a literal roller coaster.

Yep, all the way back to July valuations, which incidentally were so high we were all celebrating...

Stawp, you’re ruining the ride.


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[Exflyboy]

Ok so now the S&P 500 is in correction territory.. Where is the bottom?

We need the "inverse of Thorstache"!

[jrhampt]

Ok so now the S&P 500 is in correction territory.. Where is the bottom?

We need the "inverse of Thorstache"!

Idk, but I had some extra cash lying around so I bought some yesterday.  If it keeps going down will buy some more.

[soccerluvof4]

Going to need a collar for my whiplash of the markets the last two days.

[pecunia]

Why is it going down?  We might have a war on our hands.  I always thought the Wall Street types liked war.

[itchyfeet]

4% is like driving while looking thru the rearview mirror.  There are several assumptions underlying the 4% rule which are not guaranteed to be true going forward, volatility of returns and distribution of future returns (skewed or normal).  With bond yields near 1%, I'd advocate a 1% SWR, when rates are near 4%, SWR of 4% will work.

I can only comment on what I did.  I went all cash at my SWR and kept money in the market I probably won't need, assuming toilet paper doesn't cost $100/roll in a few years due to inflation.       

1% as a safe withdrawal rate is about as pessimistic view of the future as I have ever heard. I am too optimistic to get on board with that view of the future….. and also not rich enough to be happy spending so little of my stash. Each to one’s own I suppose.

[DaTrill]

4% is like driving while looking thru the rearview mirror.  There are several assumptions underlying the 4% rule which are not guaranteed to be true going forward, volatility of returns and distribution of future returns (skewed or normal).  With bond yields near 1%, I'd advocate a 1% SWR, when rates are near 4%, SWR of 4% will work.

I can only comment on what I did.  I went all cash at my SWR and kept money in the market I probably won't need, assuming toilet paper doesn't cost $100/roll in a few years due to inflation.       

1% as a safe withdrawal rate is about as pessimistic view of the future as I have ever heard. I am too optimistic to get on board with that view of the future….. and also not rich enough to be happy spending so little of my stash. Each to one’s own I suppose.

ERE Jacob is well below 1% SWR.  4% for longer than 30 years presents all kinds of estimation issues and why I'm at around 1%. 

[itchyfeet]

Unless you expect that you can’t even get an investment return that matches inflation, I can’t comprehend the maths driving 1%.

If you can invest to earn at least level with inflation, then 2% drawdown would last 50 years, which is a very long time. Longer than I will live I am certain.

I accept there is a risk that shares crash immediately after retiring and never recover. I’m willing to bet that the share market will continue to grow with fits and starts as it has over the past century.

The probability that you can’t beat inflation over 50 years is surely negligible if you are investing reasonably conservatively.

If you are targeting 1% then I believe you will almost certainly work longer than you need to and will die with a very large estate.

[DaTrill]

Below took a few minutes so please forgive any errors and please forward with any suggestions.  I can't post Excel for some reason, but even when returns are positive, the inter year returns can swamp any yearly positive returns.  If returns are negative for the first few months and then positive the rest of the year, even ending in a positive return, due to the fixed withdrawal, the balance will shrink and slowly bleed out any 4% SWR. 

The first case is that of a uniform monthly return with fixed withdrawal at 4%, the second is a negative 6 months, then positive 6 months, ending the year positive, but due to fixed withdrawal rate of 4%, balance is negative despite the overall return of the market being positive.  The third is down-up return with no withdrawals.  If returns are more volatile inter year, the balance will bleed out more with a fixed SWR. 

There are many other issues with the stats of the 4% rule (normal distribution vs skewed and relevant range violations) but below is a pure math and returns based critique. 


Beg value    $100,000
Return   6.00%
Monthly   0.50%
SWR   4%
Mon SWR   0.003333333

Uniform         
   Value              Cash       End
Jan    $100,500     $333.33     $100,166.67
Feb    $100,667.50     $333.33     $100,334.17
Mar    $100,835.84     $333.33     $100,502.50
Apr    $101,005.02     $333.33     $100,671.68
May    $101,175.04     $333.33     $100,841.71
Jun    $101,345.92     $333.33     $101,012.58
Jul    $101,517.65     $333.33     $101,184.31
Aug    $101,690.23     $333.33     $101,356.90
Sep    $101,863.69     $333.33     $101,530.35
Oct    $102,038.00     $333.33     $101,704.67
Nov    $102,213.19     $333.33     $101,879.86
Dec    $102,389.26     $333.33     $102,055.93
         
Total Return   1.88%   


Beg value    $100,000
Return Jan-Jun   -6.00%
Monthly   -0.50%
Return Jul-Dec   8.77%
Monthly   0.73%
SWR   4%
Mon SWR   0.003333333
   
Down-Up          
   Value            Cash       End
Jan    $99,500.00     $333.33     $99,166.67
Feb    $98,670.83     $333.33     $98,337.50
Mar    $97,845.81     $333.33     $97,512.48
Apr    $97,024.92     $333.33     $96,691.58
May    $96,208.13     $333.33     $95,874.79
Jun    $95,395.42     $333.33     $95,062.08
Jul    $95,756.83     $333.33     $95,423.50
Aug    $96,120.88     $333.33     $95,787.55
Sep    $96,487.60     $333.33     $96,154.26
Oct    $96,856.99     $333.33     $96,523.66
Nov    $97,229.09     $333.33     $96,895.75
Dec    $97,603.90     $333.33     $97,270.57
         
Total Return   -1.91%      


Same as Down-Up data

No withdrawals         
   Value          Cash       End
Jan    $99,500.00     $-       $99,500.00
Feb    $99,002.50     $-       $99,002.50
Mar    $98,507.49     $-       $98,507.49
Apr    $98,014.95     $-       $98,014.95
May    $97,524.88     $-       $97,524.88
Jun    $97,037.25     $-       $97,037.25
Jul    $97,746.43     $-       $97,746.43
Aug    $98,460.80     $-       $98,460.80
Sep    $99,180.38     $-       $99,180.38
Oct    $99,905.22     $-       $99,905.22
Nov    $100,635.36     $-       $100,635.36
Dec    $101,370.84     $-       $101,370.84
         
Total Return   1.88%      

   

[itchyfeet]

I must apologise but I don’t quite get your point.

The 4% rule is based on a historic review of the maximum you could drawdown annually over am30 year period without running out of money.

History had period of poor sequences of returns, be it months like in your example above or years.

I doubt many on this thread would argue with you that 4% may not be safe in the future, amd maybe something lower like 3.5% or 3.3% might even be tested in time. But so far 4% has been as bad as it gets.

Going from “4% may no longer prove to be safe” to “you should plan on drawing only 1%” is extreme however.

[tooqk4u22]

Below took a few minutes......

Sorry you lost me.    Let me add that if you eat turkey on Thanksgiving you may be sleepy sometime later.

So you are saying SORR may be an issue so go with a 1% or less WR.   

What is your point? Go read the SWR thread!

Can you run a few more scenarios where returns are between -50% and +50% with inflation included both in an actual historical context and completely random context for 30 year periods.  Oh yeah, would you also be able to run some with variable spending parameters like when markets may be up or down.   O oh oh..also how about like 60/40 75/25 or at least  5 other different AAs.   I am just curious what the results would be as it may help me draw some conclusions while reserving my right to be flexible but accept my own person risk.

Can't wait for the results as it will be super helpful!

Thanks in advance.

T

[SwordGuy]

Beg value    $100,000
Return Jan-Jun   -6.00%
Monthly   -0.50%
Return Jul-Dec   8.77%
Monthly   0.73%
SWR   4%
Mon SWR   0.003333333
   

I would love to see a rational explanation for why the market would act like this year after year after year after year, enough so it would cause a portfolio to fail.  Otherwise, I'm not going to care.