Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 516479 times)

markbike528CBX

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2700 on: March 23, 2020, 06:56:21 PM »
... snip....
My point again.  Every Republican is Hitler and every Democrat is Stalin. (i.e. why in the world do you think we will come together for a solution?, or acknowledge if we have one?)
... snip...
Be careful what you wish for.  The last time Hitler and Stalin worked together, the world got the MolotovĖRibbentrop Pact pact and the partition of Poland.

Mostly libertarian response.

I do agree on the useless polarization.

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2701 on: March 23, 2020, 07:08:36 PM »
... snip....
My point again.  Every Republican is Hitler and every Democrat is Stalin. (i.e. why in the world do you think we will come together for a solution?, or acknowledge if we have one?)
... snip...
Be careful what you wish for.  The last time Hitler and Stalin worked together, the world got the MolotovĖRibbentrop Pact pact and the partition of Poland.

Mostly libertarian response.

I do agree on the useless polarization.

Sorry, I guess I didn't make it clear.  Everybody that is a Republican calls every democrat Stalin.  And everybody that is a Democrat calls every Republican HItler.  Of course this is absolutely extremist and ridiculous and is done so to prevent any discussion whatsoever.  Sorry, that was that point I was trying to make.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2702 on: March 23, 2020, 07:16:49 PM »
... snip....
My point again.  Every Republican is Hitler and every Democrat is Stalin. (i.e. why in the world do you think we will come together for a solution?, or acknowledge if we have one?)
... snip...
Be careful what you wish for.  The last time Hitler and Stalin worked together, the world got the MolotovĖRibbentrop Pact pact and the partition of Poland.

Mostly libertarian response.

I do agree on the useless polarization.

Sorry, I guess I didn't make it clear.  Everybody that is a Republican calls every democrat Stalin.  And everybody that is a Democrat calls every Republican HItler.  Of course this is absolutely extremist and ridiculous and is done so to prevent any discussion whatsoever.  Sorry, that was that point I was trying to make.

No, you were very clear.  The polarization is such that Republican= Hitler , Democrat = Stalin, at least to the opposite side.

I'm more worried about the government WORKING, in such a way that the two conflicted parties find a solution [MolotovĖRibbentrop Pact] satisfactory to THEM, not to the people they allegedly represent, [us, Poland].

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2703 on: March 23, 2020, 08:23:54 PM »
Y'all just proving just how divided and polarized this country is.

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2704 on: March 23, 2020, 08:39:15 PM »
Y'all just proving just how divided and polarized this country is.


As if we needed more proof.  ;)


I find it really hard to believe we're so evenly split.  Almost makes a thinking person think that the system is rigged. 

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2705 on: March 23, 2020, 08:39:43 PM »
Y'all just proving just how divided and polarized this country is.

Read the Republican Senate Bill and the Democratic House Bill.

Decide for yourself which would help regular Americans more and the super-wealthy less.

Here's an overview and the text of the House Bill:

https://www.axios.com/nancy-pelosi-coronavirus-stimulus-proposal-d7b4a9a0-610a-4324-a07b-6bb64e1f5c81.html?fbclid=IwAR1uj28v7kWi9L9icBwDtK7H1A2ZYK1b0EtkQwJv2CAkYKQBFqycafMdF_A

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6817862-House-Democrats-Take-Responsibility-for-Workers.html

Anyone want to do the leg work to post a solid synopsis and text of the Republican Senate bill?

Then fact-based complaints from each side as to the contents of the other party's bill?

ysette9

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2706 on: March 23, 2020, 08:44:56 PM »
We have been through epidemics before (1918 flu) and we have been through a depression. What is like to see is the best kinds who have studied both to come up with solutions that take into account what was done and not done previously and what worked and didnít work. For example, we can see from the 1918 flu that cities that sheltered in place had lower death rates than those that didnít. We also saw that siting back and doing nothing in hopes that the depression would fix itself wasnít helpful and in fact made things worse.

Iíd like to think that facts and history would be something non-partisan that we could all rally around. Unfortunately it seems that in recent years facts and reality have become politicized.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2707 on: March 23, 2020, 09:39:06 PM »
Bateaux update:

Working 12 hour night shift 8 of of 9.  One more and I get 7 days off.  We'll be keeping 7 on and 7 off till the crisis is over according to senior managers.  We plan to shut down about 25 to 30 percent of production capacity in coming weeks.  My gut feeling, been here 28 years.  My gut feeling is we cut production by 50 percent before the end of the year.  We are a direct supplier to automotive, footwear, appliances, home building materials, insulation, car tires, medical and food applications.  A very wide product line, but they will all take a hit.  Our European operations are mostly shuttered.  Although our Swiss friends have begun production of hand sanitizer to give away.  Our TPU plastic can be formed into respirators, goggles, faceshields, potentially hundreds of medical products.  Now on to China.  Our Chinese operations are coming back on line 100 percent.  Almost like the US Post World War II, China may be in the perfect position to grab the economic prize of the 21st century.  We still have months before we can dream of ramping up domestic production.  China is ready now.  So don't worry you Amazon packages will be filled soon.  On a personal note. I now know an individual within my extended family who is highly suspected to have the disease.  I've had no physical contact with her.  She is a medical professional and I'm certain will take the very best measures to recover.  We'll know when the tests come back.  Be careful out there guys.  If I get my 7 days off I'm hitting the National Forest with my backpack and mountain bike.  I'll skip the idiots fighting over toilet paper for now.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2708 on: March 23, 2020, 09:59:08 PM »
Good luck with the outdoor activities.  In my county, we got so fed up with urban refugee tourists flooding in for spring break that our county government shut everything down and told them to leave.  All hotels, motels, B&Bs, VRBO's/AirBnB's/short term rentals, boat ramps, recreational parking lots, parks, campgrounds, OHV areas... you name it, closed.  And you can be ticketed.  So taking my mountain bike or kayak out is a no-go if I have to drive there.  I could still ride from my house or walk down and paddle from not too far away.  It's a pain, but a small price to pay to keep the hooligans out.  I hope you have better options.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2709 on: March 23, 2020, 10:30:08 PM »
Yeah, this 'no mall or shops to drive to' life is crazy.  Argh MMM (shakes fist silently toward the sky), I hope you are happy - everyone is home-bound and walking and biking so now it is so crowded on our greenbelt and bike paths that life sucks!  Now we are having to get in our car to get further away!  I liked FIRE much more before it became mandatory for everyone.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2710 on: March 24, 2020, 03:02:06 AM »
Right now the Government just needs to put there political agendas aside and do the things the can agree on to show the people that we can have faith in them.

Is the new good day when the S&P is down only 67pts? Disappointment again because people thought for sure the Government was going to get the Stimulus package out today.

The Republicans think they can manipulate the media to make the Dems look bad -- while they hand gobs of our money to the very rich and crumbs to everyone else.   They'll probably get away with it too.

I think that's your basic answer in today's world soccerofluv, which is why I'm very concerned about anything getting done.  People (in the US today at least) don't put aside politics.  And everyone knows everything for certain... I mean for certain.... everyone knows for sure abortion is irrefutably right to allow/wrong to deny....everyone knows for sure capitalism/socialism is right/wrong, and I'm talking about folks who haven't spent decades studying the matters.   Half the country knows for certain everything every republicans propose is wrong, the other half knows everything they propose is right, and vice versa. There are no grey areas, no middle grounds, no areas of confusion.  Citizens have fallen into the same strict division the parties took years ago when there is no longer discussion/consideration of possibilities because everything is known absolutely.... to the point there is no reason to discuss anything, just grandstand.  Its even funny at points when you see someone (maybe accidentally?) proposing what generally goes against their party line.  A good example was the recent US tariffs.  Not that long ago tariffs were considered a pretty complicated thing with hard to calculate consequences which would have been discussed forever. If a democratic president had put Tariffs in place then it would have the normal every Dem saying it was the right thing to do and every Repub saying it was going to destroy the economy for certain.  But A Repub president doing it flipped it, which was pretty hilarious results-wise, as Republicans and Dems both stayed remarkably silent on the move, as it brought about what they considered a contradiction (Tariffs being good but a Repub action being by definition bad, and vice versa).

No one is gonna discuss the right thing to do.  Whatever the current administration does is by definition completely right/completely wrong because the decision was made by the administration.

So your statement "the Government just needs to put there political agendas aside and do the things they can agree on" is by definition no longer a possibility that I can imagine.  They will not put politics aside and not only will the politicians but the public will disagree with whatever the other party proposes/does precisely because thats what they propose/do.

i haven't given up on the possibility of this in the future someday.  We still see local politics work somewhat where people judge the person and actions apart from the party.  And at a local level people can usually see the difficulties in which choice is best instead of just picking a talking point. 

But on a State/Federal level we are at least many decades away from that.  It definitely seems to be getting worse every decade.  In the 60s I think most of the country mourned Kennedy being shot.  Bush's initial reactions at least to 9-11 seemed to be somewhat praised by both sides for some short period.  But its obviously hit the tipping point now.  Today we would definitely have half mourn, half rejoice if a president was taken down in the streets (and probably a significant number of people praising the bold act of taking him down) be it Obama or Trump.  Its really scary to me we've gotten to this point but I guess I'm getting used to it.  I just hope some day I'll know everything like everyone else seems to so I don;t have to think about it anymore.


Exactly, but my point was simply there are some things that both parties have said time and time again in the last 3-4 days there are things they totally agree on and a few things that need to be worked out yet. Well to show some faith , the things you agreed on get moving on and keep working on the other things.

Car Jack

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2711 on: March 24, 2020, 09:21:24 AM »
Aaaaaand....back on topic.  Updated my spreadsheet yesterday for the first time in a while.  Still over $2M but now I have to laugh at my 2 lines set up with targets..  One is "Amount until $2.8M" and the other is "Amount until $3M".  Yah, I know it'll all go back up. 

Being old and all, with a 50/50 AA, with hundreds of thousands in paper savings bonds, big drops aren't all that interesting to me.  Being kept at home, it has given me the motivation to use the TD bond value calculator.  I had used the old wizard, which they discontinued, so manually added all my bonds into the web based calculator and inventory builder.  I've been estimating the monthly gain and I was actually really close.  Now it's accurate.

ysette9

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2712 on: March 24, 2020, 12:02:29 PM »
I think we are teetering on the edge of no longer being in this group.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2713 on: March 24, 2020, 12:51:15 PM »
Investments after today if it holds I'm still in. With paid for house no problem.

itchyfeet

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2714 on: March 24, 2020, 01:01:03 PM »
We are barely on the edge of falling out of this group. The combination of stock market losses and the AUD falling against the USD has almost seen me back under $2m USD total NW.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2715 on: March 24, 2020, 01:14:07 PM »
Well the huge rally of almost 10 percent kinda sucks for me.  I was planning to drop huge paycheck bombs into the market.  If the recovery is V shaped my $ bombs will just bounce off.   I want to penetrate deeply.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2716 on: March 24, 2020, 03:14:07 PM »
Don't worry, you will have your opportunity soon.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2717 on: March 24, 2020, 11:38:35 PM »
Well the huge rally of almost 10 percent kinda sucks for me.  I was planning to drop huge paycheck bombs into the market.  If the recovery is V shaped my $ bombs will just bounce off.   I want to penetrate deeply.

I'll admit I kind of felt the same way.  And then I felt bad about myself.  Regardless, I think 2Birds1Stone is right, and we will get a chance at deeper discounts.

The state of Washington has 123 deaths out of 2,469 confirmed cases, a rate of 4.98%.  Nationwide, we have 54,323 cases with 791 deaths so far, only 1.46%.  If all infections stop right now (they won't), and nationwide, we see the same rate as Washington, we'll have over 2,700 deaths.  The thing is, we''re still in a massive ramp-up stage, and we're having a lot of people who are having real difficulty being disciplined about social distancing.  This is going to get worse before it gets better, and unfortunately I think the markets will fall as the horror of it all begins to really hit.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2718 on: March 25, 2020, 02:58:19 AM »
What sucks is the money you lose on a day of say a 11% decline in the market vs what you gain in a 11% gain because of the math.

Seems there are some green shoots both in fighting the Virus and by next week will know more and thats what the market is looking for. Get the stimulus package actually signed and retest the bottom a bit, maybe open up some areas of the country if they stay quiet from the virus and we should/could really stabilize now with Italy turning the corner, China getting really going  and so on. A lot of ifs but its good to see the country out side of Government really rallying together we just need to all do are part and things will be fine.


***Well looks like 1am in the morning both sides agreed on a stimulus package and the President said he's sign it this morning so thats good news particularly what was said to be in it. Italy however the numbers rose but looks like people are just breaking the rules and UK is having issues as well with the people. But China again shows great improvement.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 03:14:41 AM by soccerluvof4 »

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2719 on: March 25, 2020, 03:19:08 AM »
This question is most likely to be relevant to the people in this forum.

I have a healthy cash buffer as I have admitted in the past. This is nothing new - we just have a somewhat lower risk tolerance having been through two big market downturns.

Since the cash is more than FDIC limits, I am now keeping this in two banks and a money market fund at Fidelity. I'd be curious to know how others manage cash.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2720 on: March 25, 2020, 05:02:27 AM »
I was talking with my boss yesterday across the office.  (We are 90% work from home but some things take up too much VPN bandwidth so must be done in the office).  Our TSP money went into the market yesterday (of course).  I admitted that I have deviated slightly from my IPS because I should be rebalancing from bonds back to stocks, but Iím happy with what my AA decision of starting this year 70/30 which is now closer to 60/40.  (Stocks to bonds)  I will be happy when the market goes back up whenever it does,  If by waiting and being more conservative I end up having 2.5 million in the accounts in 5 years instead of 3 Iím good with that.  (Numbers are just that and not representative of any actual math calculations on my part).  Iím also just over 5 years away from RE so I have time to ride through the market potholes.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2721 on: March 25, 2020, 07:51:11 AM »
This question is most likely to be relevant to the people in this forum.

I have a healthy cash buffer as I have admitted in the past. This is nothing new - we just have a somewhat lower risk tolerance having been through two big market downturns.

Since the cash is more than FDIC limits, I am now keeping this in two banks and a money market fund at Fidelity. I'd be curious to know how others manage cash.


yeah i am in the same boat but a boat I rather be in right now. Can add to markets if I want, balance portfolio but still have choice to live of cash minimum of 6 years and probably longer.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2722 on: March 25, 2020, 07:54:43 AM »
This question is most likely to be relevant to the people in this forum.

I have a healthy cash buffer as I have admitted in the past. This is nothing new - we just have a somewhat lower risk tolerance having been through two big market downturns.

Since the cash is more than FDIC limits, I am now keeping this in two banks and a money market fund at Fidelity. I'd be curious to know how others manage cash.

I have about $175k in a foreign bank.  Might be a little paranoid, and it's extra paperwork (FBAR), but you never know...

I also count my money in 'stable value' funds as cash, which is a hefty amount.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2723 on: March 25, 2020, 07:58:29 AM »
Well the huge rally of almost 10 percent kinda sucks for me.  I was planning to drop huge paycheck bombs into the market.  If the recovery is V shaped my $ bombs will just bounce off.   I want to penetrate deeply.

Looks like you'll have to wait a little longer until you get to penetrate deeply (your words, not mine)!  I'm really doing all I can to hold off on overdoing this metaphor...

Car Jack

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2724 on: March 25, 2020, 08:06:03 AM »
Hit my 5% bands.  Rebalanced bonds into stocks this morning. 


GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2725 on: March 25, 2020, 08:10:14 AM »
I had to move my daughter from her college apartment all day yesterday.  Left the house at 8:30 & got back home way after midnight.  The Sprinter is packed. 


I get online this morning and see I missed a huge rally.  The stock I've been watching (TDG) shot up from $302 to almost $360.  Now I've got to decide what to do.  Watch it soar away....or wait for Trump or CONVID-19 to bring it back down again?  I think I'll have to bet on the latter.  "Packed churches on Easter Sunday" should do it.







SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2726 on: March 25, 2020, 11:56:34 AM »
Well the huge rally of almost 10 percent kinda sucks for me.  I was planning to drop huge paycheck bombs into the market.  If the recovery is V shaped my $ bombs will just bounce off.   I want to penetrate deeply.

Looks like you'll have to wait a little longer until you get to penetrate deeply (your words, not mine)!  I'm really doing all I can to hold off on overdoing this metaphor...

Just now saw an article about a Vegan stock index fund being created last September.

I wonder if there's a Meat  stock index fund.

Because then, if one did better than average, one would beat the Ö


GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2727 on: March 25, 2020, 12:04:08 PM »
That reminds me of the Redd Foxx joke "What's the difference between meat and fish?"  (You can Google the inappropriate answer)

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2728 on: March 25, 2020, 12:42:42 PM »
I was talking with my boss yesterday across the office.  (We are 90% work from home but some things take up too much VPN bandwidth so must be done in the office).  Our TSP money went into the market yesterday (of course).  I admitted that I have deviated slightly from my IPS because I should be rebalancing from bonds back to stocks, but Iím happy with what my AA decision of starting this year 70/30 which is now closer to 60/40.  (Stocks to bonds)  I will be happy when the market goes back up whenever it does,  If by waiting and being more conservative I end up having 2.5 million in the accounts in 5 years instead of 3 Iím good with that.  (Numbers are just that and not representative of any actual math calculations on my part).  Iím also just over 5 years away from RE so I have time to ride through the market potholes.

I follow my AA for the most part and did rebalance as points as the market fell.   But part of my plan also requires a minimum number of spending years in cash and bonds - partly bc it helps me sleep and partly to avoid a death spiral.   I didn't hit my minimum spending years so my AA is intact but a bit further down and the rebalancing would have to stop.   

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2729 on: March 25, 2020, 07:29:30 PM »
Well the huge rally of almost 10 percent kinda sucks for me.  I was planning to drop huge paycheck bombs into the market.  If the recovery is V shaped my $ bombs will just bounce off.   I want to penetrate deeply.

Looks like you'll have to wait a little longer until you get to penetrate deeply (your words, not mine)!  I'm really doing all I can to hold off on overdoing this metaphor...

I really wasn't trying to be an ass with my post.  Just trying to inject a little humor.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2730 on: March 25, 2020, 08:01:36 PM »
I think the markets might be down tomorrow because the stimulus bill is being delayed by Republican senators that want to not give generous unemployment benefits to the newly million that are now unemployed.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2731 on: March 25, 2020, 08:36:08 PM »
I think the markets might be down tomorrow because the stimulus bill is being delayed by Republican senators that want to not give generous unemployment benefits to the newly million that are now unemployed.

Not to be alarmist or hyperbolic, but I can't help but ruminate that, as the US goes through these Trillion dollar contortions with Trump at the helm, we just might be witnessing the beginning of the fall of Rome (North America and Europe) and the rise of a new world order (Russia and Far East).  I guess I'll know the outcome when I'm an old man...

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2732 on: March 25, 2020, 08:51:09 PM »
I think the markets might be down tomorrow because the stimulus bill is being delayed by Republican senators that want to not give generous unemployment benefits to the newly million that are now unemployed.

Note the priorities -- they want to make damn sure poor people NEVER get a break. 

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2733 on: March 25, 2020, 09:15:41 PM »
I think the markets might be down tomorrow because the stimulus bill is being delayed by Republican senators that want to not give generous unemployment benefits to the newly million that are now unemployed.

Note the priorities -- they want to make damn sure poor people NEVER get a break.

Yes I agree, and they were trying to give Trump a 1/2 trillion dollar slush fund to steal from and to reward his loyalists and punish those who disagreed with him. Such blatant corruption I've never seen like this before.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2734 on: March 26, 2020, 04:21:25 AM »
I do indeed fear the rising dragon in the east.  We've been exposed for what we are, a manufacturing peon.  We lack the ability to make a protective mask or ventilator.   Our people are incoherent and can't follow simple instructions.  Our medical system lacks the ability to go on a war footing to attack the pandemic.   Our leadership squandered our time we should have been ramping up for this battle calling it a hoax.   In our ineptitude we've decided it would be ok to sacrifice Grandma and Grandpa to keep business working.  We have been unveiled as a weak people.  The American tough image is only a facade.   When we come out of this we'd better change quickly or we'll look like Europe.  A weak shell and museum of former greatness.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 07:09:21 AM by Bateaux »

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2735 on: March 26, 2020, 05:58:31 AM »
I think Europe could become an economic engine again if the Eurozone wasn't focused on bring the debt down to zero. This obsession with debt in the face of economic weakness is keeping economic growth low. The other problem with Europe is that the countries have a strong blood and soil history, where the culture is based on the ethnicity of the population, and doesn't lend itself toward welcoming immigrants who could both expand the population and help with economic growth. On the other hand immigration does lead to a loss of social cohesion and problems with integrating people together.

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2736 on: March 26, 2020, 02:19:37 PM »
I had to move my daughter from her college apartment all day yesterday.  Left the house at 8:30 & got back home way after midnight.  The Sprinter is packed. 


I get online this morning and see I missed a huge rally.  The stock I've been watching (TDG) shot up from $302 to almost $360.  Now I've got to decide what to do.  Watch it soar away....or wait for Trump or CONVID-19 to bring it back down again?  I think I'll have to bet on the latter.  "Packed churches on Easter Sunday" should do it.

I learned something about myself... my risk tolerance for the financial market is far more feeble than I thought.  I've been investing steadily for 10-12 years after loosing nearly every penny in the wake of Black Tuesday in the 90's and another big chunk to bad Financial Planner more recently in 2008.   That is the baggage that a carry when analyzing my portfolio.   Sadly, I must admit that on Monday I got scared, decided I'd had enough, and sold a bunch of stock in favor of bonds.   I recouped slightly less than what I've put into the market (no gains, not even breaking even).  Now, of course, today is another rally.   It's exasperating to possibly have sold at the bottom.    I can't seem to get this right. 

I was lamenting to a friend, earlier today, and she pointed out that my tolerance for real estate risk is far higher than most people's and maybe the stock market just isn't for me.   Yes, she's right, I'm happy with the buy and hold strategy for RE, but, apparently, I'm faint hearted when my hard earned cash plummets.    I guess my RE strategy works (hey, I'm still in this club) for me, but I feel like a wussy loser for running scared when you all have such fortitude. 

BTW- 2 friends of friends have Covid-19.   I'm just waiting for it to sweep through this area.  Several young people I know have lost their jobs.  I think hard times are just beginning. 

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2737 on: March 26, 2020, 05:04:30 PM »
I had to move my daughter from her college apartment all day yesterday.  Left the house at 8:30 & got back home way after midnight.  The Sprinter is packed. 


I get online this morning and see I missed a huge rally.  The stock I've been watching (TDG) shot up from $302 to almost $360.  Now I've got to decide what to do.  Watch it soar away....or wait for Trump or CONVID-19 to bring it back down again?  I think I'll have to bet on the latter.  "Packed churches on Easter Sunday" should do it.

I learned something about myself... my risk tolerance for the financial market is far more feeble than I thought.  I've been investing steadily for 10-12 years after loosing nearly every penny in the wake of Black Tuesday in the 90's and another big chunk to bad Financial Planner more recently in 2008.   That is the baggage that a carry when analyzing my portfolio.   Sadly, I must admit that on Monday I got scared, decided I'd had enough, and sold a bunch of stock in favor of bonds.   I recouped slightly less than what I've put into the market (no gains, not even breaking even).  Now, of course, today is another rally.   It's exasperating to possibly have sold at the bottom.    I can't seem to get this right. 

I was lamenting to a friend, earlier today, and she pointed out that my tolerance for real estate risk is far higher than most people's and maybe the stock market just isn't for me.   Yes, she's right, I'm happy with the buy and hold strategy for RE, but, apparently, I'm faint hearted when my hard earned cash plummets.    I guess my RE strategy works (hey, I'm still in this club) for me, but I feel like a wussy loser for running scared when you all have such fortitude. 

BTW- 2 friends of friends have Covid-19.   I'm just waiting for it to sweep through this area.  Several young people I know have lost their jobs.  I think hard times are just beginning.


Sorry to hear about your losses.  I'm down quite a bit too.  TDG rallied high enough to recover most of my losses, but I didn't get in.  It was $302 on Monday & closed at $402 today. 
At least I'm learning to pick winners.  ;)


Real estate is an entirely different investment vehicle.  It moves a lot slower and is a lot more predictable.  If you're good with it I'd concentrate more on real estate. 


I think I'm at about 50% in real estate, 40% cash, and 10% in equities at the moment.  The real estate is building lots that are for sale.  Not sure where I'll put the cash when they sell.  Probably mostly into index funds if the market is moving in the right direction again.


 



pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2738 on: March 26, 2020, 05:17:11 PM »
I do indeed fear the rising dragon in the east.  We've been exposed for what we are, a manufacturing peon.  We lack the ability to make a protective mask or ventilator.   Our people are incoherent and can't follow simple instructions.  Our medical system lacks the ability to go on a war footing to attack the pandemic.   Our leadership squandered our time we should have been ramping up for this battle calling it a hoax.   In our ineptitude we've decided it would be ok to sacrifice Grandma and Grandpa to keep business working.  We have been unveiled as a weak people.  The American tough image is only a facade.   When we come out of this we'd better change quickly or we'll look like Europe.  A weak shell and museum of former greatness.

Right - The people of the East have done great things in this generation.  Fantastic economic growth.  Some countries have changed from making nothing for the world to making everything.  How did they do it?  They also seem to have this strange long term outlook.

The United States has shred a massive manufacturing base and squandered blood and treasure in foreign adventures.  Their people's standard of living has gone down?  How did they do it?

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2739 on: March 26, 2020, 07:40:07 PM »
I had to move my daughter from her college apartment all day yesterday.  Left the house at 8:30 & got back home way after midnight.  The Sprinter is packed. 


I get online this morning and see I missed a huge rally.  The stock I've been watching (TDG) shot up from $302 to almost $360.  Now I've got to decide what to do.  Watch it soar away....or wait for Trump or CONVID-19 to bring it back down again?  I think I'll have to bet on the latter.  "Packed churches on Easter Sunday" should do it.

I learned something about myself... my risk tolerance for the financial market is far more feeble than I thought.  I've been investing steadily for 10-12 years after loosing nearly every penny in the wake of Black Tuesday in the 90's and another big chunk to bad Financial Planner more recently in 2008.   That is the baggage that a carry when analyzing my portfolio.   Sadly, I must admit that on Monday I got scared, decided I'd had enough, and sold a bunch of stock in favor of bonds.   I recouped slightly less than what I've put into the market (no gains, not even breaking even).  Now, of course, today is another rally.   It's exasperating to possibly have sold at the bottom.    I can't seem to get this right. 

I was lamenting to a friend, earlier today, and she pointed out that my tolerance for real estate risk is far higher than most people's and maybe the stock market just isn't for me.   Yes, she's right, I'm happy with the buy and hold strategy for RE, but, apparently, I'm faint hearted when my hard earned cash plummets.    I guess my RE strategy works (hey, I'm still in this club) for me, but I feel like a wussy loser for running scared when you all have such fortitude. 

BTW- 2 friends of friends have Covid-19.   I'm just waiting for it to sweep through this area.  Several young people I know have lost their jobs.  I think hard times are just beginning.

Sorry about your friends, hope they recover.  As far as your money, you probably still have a bunch of that.   Chances are we haven't seen the bottom and you may have a chance to reinvest.  Once you reach 2 million liquid you've won the battle.  Get to a position of solitude when you can.  We're sitting in a million cash/ bonds and 400K in pension.  The rest is market exposed but the bulk is now in capital preservation.  Of that exposed to risk about 80 percent is broad index funds.  You'll make it through.  I had to talk an aunt off the ledge a few days ago.  She's 75 percent capital preservation and 25 percent large cap.  I had to tell her to stay the course.  Let the market recovery happen.  After the funds she holds recover some, I'm going to help her get into Vanguard funds.  She paid a load and is paying 1.25 percent in fees annually.  I'd like to strangle that broker.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 07:42:17 PM by Bateaux »

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2740 on: March 26, 2020, 07:51:34 PM »


I do indeed fear the rising dragon in the east.  We've been exposed for what we are, a manufacturing peon.  We lack the ability to make a protective mask or ventilator.   Our people are incoherent and can't follow simple instructions.  Our medical system lacks the ability to go on a war footing to attack the pandemic.   Our leadership squandered our time we should have been ramping up for this battle calling it a hoax.   In our ineptitude we've decided it would be ok to sacrifice Grandma and Grandpa to keep business working.  We have been unveiled as a weak people.  The American tough image is only a facade.   When we come out of this we'd better change quickly or we'll look like Europe.  A weak shell and museum of former greatness.

Right - The people of the East have done great things in this generation.  Fantastic economic growth.  Some countries have changed from making nothing for the world to making everything.  How did they do it?  They also seem to have this strange long term outlook.

The United States has shred a massive manufacturing base and squandered blood and treasure in foreign adventures.  Their people's standard of living has gone down?  How did they do it?

I don't want to sound like a negative Nelly.  But I work in manufacturing and it pisses me off that we've given up our industrial might.  I'm no fan of Trump but damnit.  I've had enough!  We won't see greatness again until we make our own goods again.  I really want to Make America Great Again. Trump found that longing and took advantage of it.  Now we need to do it.  Sans the racism and division brought by that campaign.  This isn't meant to be a political post. You people are smart and experienced. I know that you know exactly what the Hell I mean.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2741 on: March 26, 2020, 08:17:06 PM »


I do indeed fear the rising dragon in the east.  We've been exposed for what we are, a manufacturing peon.  We lack the ability to make a protective mask or ventilator.   Our people are incoherent and can't follow simple instructions.  Our medical system lacks the ability to go on a war footing to attack the pandemic.   Our leadership squandered our time we should have been ramping up for this battle calling it a hoax.   In our ineptitude we've decided it would be ok to sacrifice Grandma and Grandpa to keep business working.  We have been unveiled as a weak people.  The American tough image is only a facade.   When we come out of this we'd better change quickly or we'll look like Europe.  A weak shell and museum of former greatness.

Right - The people of the East have done great things in this generation.  Fantastic economic growth.  Some countries have changed from making nothing for the world to making everything.  How did they do it?  They also seem to have this strange long term outlook.

The United States has shred a massive manufacturing base and squandered blood and treasure in foreign adventures.  Their people's standard of living has gone down?  How did they do it?

I don't want to sound like a negative Nelly.  But I work in manufacturing and it pisses me off that we've given up our industrial might.  I'm no fan of Trump but damnit.  I've had enough!  We won't see greatness again until we make our own goods again.  I really want to Make America Great Again. Trump found that longing and took advantage of it.  Now we need to do it.  Sans the racism and division brought by that campaign.  This isn't meant to be a political post. You people are smart and experienced. I know that you know exactly what the Hell I mean.

Put tariffs on goods from countries that have worse anti-pollution and worse labor protection laws than we do.   Put tariffs on goods that were built in the US but were moved off-shore.   Double the tax rates and zero-out all tax deductions and credits for all C-level managers and board of director members who move product production off-shore -- and those penalties are for life.  Encourage our European and other allies to adopt similar tariffs and penalties.   Put a lifetime cap on pay of 150% of median family income from all sources for those c-level managers and board of director members if they break the law, with their income capped and the overage put in trust pending trial outcome.   Execute those who try to avoid the letter of the law with shell companies, etc.   

Benefits:

Our companies will be competing on a level playing field.
We'll get more manufacturing here.
Less world-wide pollution and better worker protections.   Instead of a race to the bottom we'll find we have a race to the top.


Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2742 on: March 26, 2020, 08:22:11 PM »


I do indeed fear the rising dragon in the east.  We've been exposed for what we are, a manufacturing peon.  We lack the ability to make a protective mask or ventilator.   Our people are incoherent and can't follow simple instructions.  Our medical system lacks the ability to go on a war footing to attack the pandemic.   Our leadership squandered our time we should have been ramping up for this battle calling it a hoax.   In our ineptitude we've decided it would be ok to sacrifice Grandma and Grandpa to keep business working.  We have been unveiled as a weak people.  The American tough image is only a facade.   When we come out of this we'd better change quickly or we'll look like Europe.  A weak shell and museum of former greatness.

Right - The people of the East have done great things in this generation.  Fantastic economic growth.  Some countries have changed from making nothing for the world to making everything.  How did they do it?  They also seem to have this strange long term outlook.

The United States has shred a massive manufacturing base and squandered blood and treasure in foreign adventures.  Their people's standard of living has gone down?  How did they do it?

I don't want to sound like a negative Nelly.  But I work in manufacturing and it pisses me off that we've given up our industrial might.  I'm no fan of Trump but damnit.  I've had enough!  We won't see greatness again until we make our own goods again.  I really want to Make America Great Again. Trump found that longing and took advantage of it.  Now we need to do it.  Sans the racism and division brought by that campaign.  This isn't meant to be a political post. You people are smart and experienced. I know that you know exactly what the Hell I mean.

Put tariffs on goods from countries that have worse anti-pollution and worse labor protection laws than we do.   Put tariffs on goods that were built in the US but were moved off-shore.   Double the tax rates and zero-out all tax deductions and credits for all C-level managers and board of director members who move product production off-shore -- and those penalties are for life.  Encourage our European and other allies to adopt similar tariffs and penalties.   Put a lifetime cap on pay of 150% of median family income from all sources for those c-level managers and board of director members if they break the law, with their income capped and the overage put in trust pending trial outcome.   Execute those who try to avoid the letter of the law with shell companies, etc.   

Benefits:

Our companies will be competing on a level playing field.
We'll get more manufacturing here.
Less world-wide pollution and better worker protections.   Instead of a race to the bottom we'll find we have a race to the top.
I like it!

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2743 on: March 26, 2020, 09:31:52 PM »
We should elect a president with an engineering background next.

ysette9

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2744 on: March 26, 2020, 10:23:13 PM »
We should elect a president with an engineering background next.
~Standing up clapping~

With an economist VP

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2745 on: March 26, 2020, 11:02:07 PM »
We should elect a president with an engineering background next.
~Standing up clapping~

With an economist VP

We've had two with engineering backgrounds.

Jimmy Carter, who did a brilliant job of brokering a middle-east peace deal that's worked for 41 years.

Herbert Hoover, who did a brilliant job of translating the medieval metallurgy text, De Re Metallica, and a horrible job of dealing with the start of the Great Depression.

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2746 on: March 27, 2020, 10:09:17 PM »
I'm feeling better today about my move to sell.  It is what it is.   It's all still good.  Thanks for not roasting me.   It just feels way too much like gambling for my comfort.  It's only fun when you're winning. 

So my financial hit is probably yet to come.  RE rentals are likely to take a big hit too.   I think at  most of my tenants have Essential jobs, with only 2 that I'm concerned about that run a little closer to the edge every month anyway.   I'll call them next week if things look shaky.   

I'm surprised that so many of you have such a high cash/bonds to investments ratio.   Did you just let it creep up over the years in the market and then slowly move it to safety?  I'm intrigued that so much liquidity wouldn't be getting a return. 

Regarding diversification-  Did any of you consider investing in Secured Notes?  Either First Trust Deed mortgage notes or something like peer to peer lending?   MMM did a write up on Lending Club a while ago.  I tried it, but didn't like it much.  I also tried crowd funded mortgage lending.  I'm not impressed with that, either.  I'm not funding flakey people with my hard earned funds and trusting that the managers will collect.     We have 2 First TD's on places that we sold and did owner carry seller financing.  Those have performed well, after a rocky start (with a family member) got sorted out.  7% and 6.5% interest and secured by properly valued real estate. 


EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2747 on: March 27, 2020, 10:58:56 PM »
@JoJoP This is an incredibly hard time to find a low risk investment with any reasonable return.  Going in to this year, I disliked bonds at 2%, but disliked equities even more at a CAPE of 30+.  It was frustrating to start another year with S&P up 10% that my cash was missing out on, but it could not go on forever.  I had no idea we'd see the situation we are in, I just decided I did not need to put my past winnings at risk any longer.  Even without the pandemic, the OPEC+ failure would have dented a large part of the US stock market (with crude falling to $20 making the shale revolution moot).

For what it's worth, I was considering diversifying in to real estate at the beginning of the year, but I'm not going in that direction now.

There will be plenty of opportunities coming.  Be patient and do 'thought experiments' and see how they play out, and then commit to the ones that go well and you can stick with long term.  Volatility and moving money too much is a bad combination.  Sometimes the best action to take is to not take action. 

But ultimately, for me, I just know certain stocks are crazy cheap and the business is sound, so you move that cash off the sidelines and have to trust that you know what you are doing.  Not an easy thing to explain or bottle, or else I'd be selling books or managing other people's money.  I also don't give too specific of advice!  I know I say it way too often, but evaluate your 'willingness, need, and ability' to part with the money you invest.  The rest stays in cash-like funds.

ysette9

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2748 on: March 27, 2020, 11:03:24 PM »
Our plan was to be at 40% bonds at the time we reached our FI number, which happened late last year. That plan coincides both with the ERN bond tent analysis and the Living Off Your Money book. So in some ways we were lucky that I had read about that stuff and dialed back on the equities recently as we have been around 90% equities through our accumulation years. We have been higher in bonds for exactly this sort of scenario: massive dump right as we reach FIRE.

I still quit my job two weeks ago but my husband was planning on another year before this anyway. Iím really glad now to have that buffer and be still adding to our investments instead of drawing down, though I am bummed that we arenít adding to them at the same rate as before.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2749 on: March 27, 2020, 11:35:15 PM »
I'm feeling better today about my move to sell.  It is what it is.   It's all still good.  Thanks for not roasting me.   It just feels way too much like gambling for my comfort.  It's only fun when you're winning. 

So my financial hit is probably yet to come.  RE rentals are likely to take a big hit too.   I think at  most of my tenants have Essential jobs, with only 2 that I'm concerned about that run a little closer to the edge every month anyway.   I'll call them next week if things look shaky.   

I'm surprised that so many of you have such a high cash/bonds to investments ratio.   Did you just let it creep up over the years in the market and then slowly move it to safety?  I'm intrigued that so much liquidity wouldn't be getting a return. 

Regarding diversification-  Did any of you consider investing in Secured Notes?  Either First Trust Deed mortgage notes or something like peer to peer lending?   MMM did a write up on Lending Club a while ago.  I tried it, but didn't like it much.  I also tried crowd funded mortgage lending.  I'm not impressed with that, either.  I'm not funding flakey people with my hard earned funds and trusting that the managers will collect.     We have 2 First TD's on places that we sold and did owner carry seller financing.  Those have performed well, after a rocky start (with a family member) got sorted out.  7% and 6.5% interest and secured by properly valued real estate.

Who are we to roast you.  I guarantee you that we all have lost money.  I'm down at least 300K.  We have to have some exposure to risk.  We're not all that young, but young enough that we cant just go to cash/bonds exclusively.   We have to have faith that it comes back.  For now I'm in a OMY pattern anyway.   So I'm throwing as much cash as I can at the market till then.  Good luck.  We all want the best for everyone here.  I can't remember once in 55 pages of anyone not getting along here.  If I feel the need to stir trouble I'll take it to the off-topic.