Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 516480 times)

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2600 on: March 17, 2020, 04:06:11 AM »
Fututes gave up all overnight gains. Back up the truck!

I got severely burned in 2013 trying to catch a falling knife with commodities, so will hold off until real market panic sets in.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2601 on: March 17, 2020, 06:11:46 AM »
Fututes gave up all overnight gains. Back up the truck!

I got severely burned in 2013 trying to catch a falling knife with commodities, so will hold off until real market panic sets in.


Thats exactly why I am incrementally buying on percentage drops.

itchyfeet

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2602 on: March 17, 2020, 06:29:08 AM »
Fututes gave up all overnight gains. Back up the truck!

I got severely burned in 2013 trying to catch a falling knife with commodities, so will hold off until real market panic sets in.


Thats exactly why I am incrementally buying on percentage drops.

I will keep buying too. I donít have a huge amount to play with but will get my 2019 bonus next week so will add that to what I have.

At least if I buy now it brings down my average purchase price closer to todayís prices so I feel less bad about the difference between the average I have bought in at and todayís price.

Also, I want to be in the market as much as possible for a recovery if there is one.

If the market doesnít recover then I am destined to work for ever. It will be what it will be.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2603 on: March 17, 2020, 07:04:22 AM »
Fututes gave up all overnight gains. Back up the truck!

I got severely burned in 2013 trying to catch a falling knife with commodities, so will hold off until real market panic sets in.


Thats exactly why I am incrementally buying on percentage drops.

I will keep buying too. I donít have a huge amount to play with but will get my 2019 bonus next week so will add that to what I have.

At least if I buy now it brings down my average purchase price closer to todayís prices so I feel less bad about the difference between the average I have bought in at and todayís price.

Also, I want to be in the market as much as possible for a recovery if there is one.

If the market doesnít recover then I am destined to work for ever. It will be what it will be.


If the market were not to recover there would be much worse things to worry about so it wouldn't matter much . It will recover

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2604 on: March 17, 2020, 07:25:58 AM »
2 weeks??

Yup.  That's my opinion.  But I am an eternal optimist.  We will see.

That's not eternal optimism, that's delusion.   30 more days minimum and probably more like 90 days.   

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2605 on: March 17, 2020, 07:30:04 AM »
I'm planning to finally retire this Spring so the fall of stock prices concern me.  However, the causes seem to be temporary this time.  The price of oil will inevitably return to it's higher state.  People cannot hide away from this virus forever.  It's not the Bubonic plague where a major portion of the populace will be removed.  People will only hide away with their hoarded toilet paper so long until the bullsh#t flag is raised and schools will reopen and business will return to normal.  I figure a maximum of 2 months.

I somehow find it easier to lose money due to natural causes than due to the actions of the greedy men in 2008.

After the populace accepts the present status,  the economy will ramp up and I would expect stock prices to return to almost their former levels.  Since they were overpriced, they will probably rebound to a lower level than before the crash.  I'll still feel good when they go back up.

Is my prognosis off the mark?  I am not known as a seer.  I'd like to know the prediction of you folks.  From the entries that I've seen made you all are far more into the money thing than I ever want to be.

Personally, if I had a paycheck and benefits I would hold on to it until things settle down unless you saved way too much like having 25x after the 30% market drop.   Not taking money out to live and adding a bit more during these volatile times (however long it lasts) will be better financially.   And you always have the option to quit if you can't take anymore.  Options are good.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2606 on: March 17, 2020, 07:31:57 AM »
A decline in the US death rate seems like a natural turning point.  What other positive signal will matter to the markets before that occurs?  Unless the election happens first, God forbid it takes that long.

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2607 on: March 17, 2020, 07:32:37 AM »
Fututes gave up all overnight gains. Back up the truck!

I got severely burned in 2013 trying to catch a falling knife with commodities, so will hold off until real market panic sets in.

Mega tech/High Growth Large companies have not dropped as much (or rose so much over the last 52 weeks they are only back to 2019 prices), is it possible that these stocks have to break harder before capitulation/max sell has set in?


secondcor521

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2608 on: March 17, 2020, 09:40:03 AM »
2 weeks??

Yup.  That's my opinion.  But I am an eternal optimist.  We will see.

That's not eternal optimism, that's delusion.   30 more days minimum and probably more like 90 days.   

Well, consider me deluded if you like.  But to be clear (which I probably wasn't 100% in my original post), I think that sometime in the next two weeks some non-coronavirus headline will be the main headline on the main news websites.  See quote below with emphasis added.

I do think the virus will be with us indefinitely, and I do think we'll continue to have new cases and deaths for months, and I do think it will be in the news for a long time.

I am very curious to see how long the various restrictions, accommodations, and cancellations will remain in effect.  For example, my kids are in college and high school and they're all doing the virtual learning thing this semester.  What about this summer and this fall?  I don't know.  Also, will all of them subside at various rates and at various points in time, or will we decide everything is fine all at once?

I'm planning to finally retire this Spring so the fall of stock prices concern me.  However, the causes seem to be temporary this time.  The price of oil will inevitably return to it's higher state.  People cannot hide away from this virus forever.  It's not the Bubonic plague where a major portion of the populace will be removed.  People will only hide away with their hoarded toilet paper so long until the bullsh#t flag is raised and schools will reopen and business will return to normal.  I figure a maximum of 2 months.

My son and I were discussing this last night on our apocalypse run to the grocery store (limited outages, generally not the end of the world, found everything we wanted except the kind of bottled water we prefer, and butter).

I think it will be much shorter - probably on the order of two weeks.

We also discussed what metric we would use to decide when things have subsided.  We decided one good metric would be what the top news headline of the day is.  He also opined that people in general can't remain scared of one topic for very long, and so the media out of necessity will switch to something else (plane crash, war, mass shooting, something like that would be my guess as to what will dislodge stupidVirus from page 1).

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2609 on: March 17, 2020, 10:57:59 AM »
I admire the fortitude of ya'll.  Your faith in the stock market is noteworthy... I've had my doubts and still do.    My modest portfolio has taken a real beating.  It's only my financial buffer, not my source of income, but it's hard to watch the train wreck when it's been going so swimmingly for so long.  I bought some VOO less than 2 weeks ago and it got hammered.    I'll leave everything alone and ride it out.

 I have 2 vacancies this month. One is a rental and one is to be sold.   That lack of cash flow sort of swallows up the available cash we have, so I won't be doing any major ETF buying of the dip.   I hope people are still buying houses so I don't have to hold it.  Our expenses are minimal for it (no mortgage), but, still....  I agree with those who think the fallout of this is just beginning.  There are too many people  looking at paycheck issues for this to right itself quickly.  As Bateaux pointed out, nearly the whole staff at his company is sidelined.  Multiply that by the whole world. Paychecks are faltering exponentially.   Most people don't have a buffer in good times. 

 Keep in mind that the self isolation is designed to flatten the curve so people get sick more slowly and the available medical resources aren't overwhelmed all at once.   People will still get sick, just more slowly. 

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2610 on: March 17, 2020, 08:02:37 PM »
Bateaux update. There are four people that work the job I do, on 12 hour rotation.  So normally without overtime, 25 percent of my time is at work.  Well, we just lost 2 guys to unexplained fevers in their household.  So they are quarantined for 14 days.  So I'm now on a 7 shift on 7 shift off rotation.  Except they won't necessarily be cleared in time to return and give me my 7 off.  My wife and her sister are headed to the Florida house without me now.  My vacation time is cancelled!  The Shit is hitting the fan in Louisiana.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2611 on: March 17, 2020, 10:58:13 PM »
2 weeks??

Today we have just over 100 dead and 6200 confirmed cases. In two weeks, the people who have been exposed so far will nearly all be sick.  We will have about 40,000 confirmed cases, and over 2,000 dead. The market turmoil weíve seen so far will seem like nothing as the full impact of the coming worldwide recession comes into sharper focus. I hope Iím wrong, but I predict everything is going to look a lot more bleak before it looks better.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2612 on: March 17, 2020, 11:29:29 PM »
2 weeks??

Today we have just over 100 dead and 6200 confirmed cases. In two weeks, the people who have been exposed so far will nearly all be sick.  We will have about 40,000 confirmed cases, and over 2,000 dead. The market turmoil weíve seen so far will seem like nothing as the full impact of the coming worldwide recession comes into sharper focus. I hope Iím wrong, but I predict everything is going to look a lot more bleak before it looks better.

Sadly that is the way an epidemic works - cold, hard exponential math.  We need to get the upward slope stabilized, then begin to slow.  Once we hit plateau, we can begin to hope the worst is over.  These latter stages are a long ways off until we, as a whole, take social distancing deadly seriously.

I'm just hoping we are not still in the denial / delusional phase which has been allowing the slope to continue to steepen.

On the bright side, more people are outside here during the day, enjoying life!

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2613 on: March 18, 2020, 06:28:58 AM »
Rolled some bonds over yesterday vs using some cash to buy more BUT futures look dismal today. Every day more and more companies are asking for money from the Government  to stay operational through this. Seems like we have a ways to go, along ways to go before things stabilize be my guess.

secondcor521

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2614 on: March 18, 2020, 09:47:16 AM »
2 weeks??

Today we have just over 100 dead and 6200 confirmed cases. In two weeks, the people who have been exposed so far will nearly all be sick.  We will have about 40,000 confirmed cases, and over 2,000 dead. The market turmoil weíve seen so far will seem like nothing as the full impact of the coming worldwide recession comes into sharper focus. I hope Iím wrong, but I predict everything is going to look a lot more bleak before it looks better.

Sadly that is the way an epidemic works - cold, hard exponential math.  We need to get the upward slope stabilized, then begin to slow.  Once we hit plateau, we can begin to hope the worst is over.  These latter stages are a long ways off until we, as a whole, take social distancing deadly seriously.

I'm just hoping we are not still in the denial / delusional phase which has been allowing the slope to continue to steepen.

On the bright side, more people are outside here during the day, enjoying life!

Does anyone know if the following site has accurate data?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I note that from March 17 to March 18 in the USA, new deaths decreased from 23 to 7.

That data point is not consistent with an exponential growth curve.

It is possible the site is not a reliable source of information, although their about page seems good.

It is possible that it is a one day statistical blip.

It is possible that the swift panic/action by everyone has started to be successful.

I will be interested to watch the data over the next few weeks.

achvfi

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2615 on: March 18, 2020, 09:55:20 AM »

Does anyone know if the following site has accurate data?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I note that from March 17 to March 18 in the USA, new deaths decreased from 23 to 7.

That data point is not consistent with an exponential growth curve.

It is possible the site is not a reliable source of information, although their about page seems good.

It is possible that it is a one day statistical blip.

It is possible that the swift panic/action by everyone has started to be successful.

I will be interested to watch the data over the next few weeks.

I am also interested in knowing accuracy of this data, who the sources are. But I have been following it for couple of weeks now.

If you look at instructions for the data, it resets 0 GMT everyday. So if you are looking for new death count for today you will have to wait until evening time in US. i.e. death rate continues to be in increasing trend.
These are due to disease contractions about 2-4 weeks ago.

I think the social distancing message effects will start probably after another 3 weeks.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 09:56:52 AM by achvfi »

RWD

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2616 on: March 18, 2020, 10:07:53 AM »
I've been following this site:
https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2617 on: March 18, 2020, 10:39:31 AM »
Iíve been following both Worldometer and this site:

https://ncov2019.live/data

Their numbers arenít exactly in sync, but they are broadly consistent.

secondcor521

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2618 on: March 18, 2020, 11:00:39 AM »

Does anyone know if the following site has accurate data?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I note that from March 17 to March 18 in the USA, new deaths decreased from 23 to 7.

That data point is not consistent with an exponential growth curve.

It is possible the site is not a reliable source of information, although their about page seems good.

It is possible that it is a one day statistical blip.

It is possible that the swift panic/action by everyone has started to be successful.

I will be interested to watch the data over the next few weeks.

I am also interested in knowing accuracy of this data, who the sources are. But I have been following it for couple of weeks now.

If you look at instructions for the data, it resets 0 GMT everyday. So if you are looking for new death count for today you will have to wait until evening time in US. i.e. death rate continues to be in increasing trend.
These are due to disease contractions about 2-4 weeks ago.


I think the social distancing message effects will start probably after another 3 weeks.

Emphasis added.

Thank you.  I forgot the other option:  It is possible there is user error in understanding the data.  (This is an option I often ignore.  It would be wise for me to pay it more heed.)

I am still very interested to see when the rate of increase in death cases begins to drop.  The site I listed above was the first google-found data source that (a) gave me the data I was interested in, and (b) seemed reliable.  I picked it last night as the site to start watching before it showed data that appeared to be in line with my hoped-for outcome; in other words, I was not cherry-picking the site.  Although I could be fairly accused of cherry-picking the data.  I guess I'd prefer the term confirmation bias (that way I won't be as lonely).

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2619 on: March 18, 2020, 11:29:26 AM »
Looks like the lowest since 2017.  I have been hoarding some cash since I've been told for 2 years this drop was due.  Do you guys expect the disease fear to last for a few months?  I wonder if we're nearing the bottom.   Any cash I can put in will not make up for my losses, but it would be good to have it work for me.

This keeps going and I will be another dipping below the $2M mark.

We haven't gotten the worst of this yet.  Expect about 50% of the population to get hit with the Coronavirus, but the vast overwhelming majority will be fine, it will be like getting a cold.

So yes I'd expect the market to freak out more.  Schools are closing, we're definitely going to be in a recession, incomes are going to decline.

I have no idea when the bottom will peak. You just do your best and invest your cash and over the long term stocks are headed back up.

We've been through this rodeo before, just different issues freaked everyone out (understandably).

This.   There are absolutely 100's of thousands if not millions more people here and globally that have or have had the virus but can't or haven't or won't be tested (no kits, not severe enough symptoms) and while this is perfectly logical the irrational will continue to win out as the numbers increase dramatically over the next 30 days. 

My probabilities for the next 30-90 days:
Get back to correction territory (10% off highs) - 2%
Range bound between Dec 2018 Lows and 20% off highs - 75%
down another 10% from high - 20%
Hit 50% down from highs - 3%

Well we broke the 2018 Lows for S&P 500.   I somewhat think we need the mega tech/high growth (assume QQQ for benchmark) to break back in line to hit a bottom - but that is another 15% or so down for the QQQ to catch up and that would be more painful
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 11:32:59 AM by tooqk4u22 »

honeyfill

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2620 on: March 18, 2020, 12:05:02 PM »
I never look at my accounts when the market is going down. It's bad luck!  but I am pretty sure I dropped below the $2M mark-possibly just barely hanging on.
I  am mostly already in equities but I could cash in a pension, max out my HELOC and and scrape together some cash to put in the market.  I would move from 90% stocks to 110% stocks.*  I hate to try to time the market but it cant go too much lower can it?
 I am presently working for a defense contractor , no way they govt is going to cut defense spending. At least not until Biden gets in office.  That means I'll be working for at least another year.  I wont need the cash or pension and I make enough to easily service the loan.   

Is the idea  crazy or genius?
I'm leaning toward crazy, so I will probably  just stay put.

* I count the leveraged money as extra risk, that is why I use 110% and not 100%

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2621 on: March 18, 2020, 12:24:43 PM »
When everyone is very afraid and it looks like there's no hope for the future is usually the best time to put money in the market.

secondcor521

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2622 on: March 18, 2020, 12:27:10 PM »
I never look at my accounts when the market is going down. It's bad luck!  but I am pretty sure I dropped below the $2M mark-possibly just barely hanging on.
I  am mostly already in equities but I could cash in a pension, max out my HELOC and and scrape together some cash to put in the market.  I would move from 90% stocks to 110% stocks.*  I hate to try to time the market but it cant go too much lower can it?
 I am presently working for a defense contractor , no way they govt is going to cut defense spending. At least not until Biden gets in office.  That means I'll be working for at least another year.  I wont need the cash or pension and I make enough to easily service the loan.   

Is the idea  crazy or genius?
I'm leaning toward crazy, so I will probably  just stay put.

* I count the leveraged money as extra risk, that is why I use 110% and not 100%

Yes, the market can go lower.  See today's market as an example.  See also tomorrow's market as a possible example ;)

I personally am OK with someone at 100% stocks.  I am at about 95% stocks now.  But for me the benefit of going above 100% isn't worth the risk.  The reason for that is that to go above 100%, you have to use leverage, which means borrowing, which means borrowing costs.  You have to pay for that HELOC interest first before any return is yours, and you may have to pay it back sooner than those returns materialize.

While your job may be secure, and the economy in the long run is probably going to be fine, in the interim things may get (are getting?) bad.

Good luck whatever you decide.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2623 on: March 18, 2020, 03:51:52 PM »
I'ts on everyone's lips.  It's on the TV, internet and the printed media.  These all drive you to think, "Yeh, this is bad!"  So, I look at the old Dow Jones chart showing the history of the ups and downs.  You can see it too with a click.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

Look at our dip (so far) compared to 1929.  Those old timers really had a storm to weather.  In relative terms, it looks less severe than 2008.  (Good thing)

I don't think I'll have to head to California to pick grapes.

Note:  The dip in 2018 was quite transient.  How much buying time do you think there is this time?  People have been saying for some time that we were due for a recession.  Doesn't this give quite some time to buy in near the bottom?  However, I note that even 1929 had quite the bounce from the bottom.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2624 on: March 18, 2020, 04:18:57 PM »
The problem is we have no way of knowing if we are at the bottom or not. I've buy points in my head at 2200 and 2030.. But maybe we are headed for 1800?

The other problem that concerns me a little that bond funds sometimes go down with the stock market, VBTLX for example has been going down in value over the last few days.

So right now I have about 8 years or so in yearly spend in bonds and 2 years in cash and I'd be happy down to about 7 years worth total but that 7 years might not be a lot less by the time we bottom out.

I'd hate to have to find something awful like a JOB or something.

secondcor521

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2625 on: March 18, 2020, 04:25:48 PM »
I'd hate to have to find something awful like a JOB or something.

From what I've seen on another board where people have been FIREd for longer than most here, the general pattern seems to be a great willingness to reduce expenses and a great lack of willingness for the JOB thing.

(I'm not there yet, but that would be my inclination as well.  I can be very cheap if need be, and I'm cheap most of the time anyway.)

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2626 on: March 18, 2020, 04:36:48 PM »
We're down $295,000 since the end of last year.  This still shall pass.

We'll be fine assuming we stay reasonably healthy.

I'm more worried about regular folks, both their health and their finances.   

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2627 on: March 18, 2020, 04:47:22 PM »
The problem is we have no way of knowing if we are at the bottom or not. I've buy points in my head at 2200 and 2030.. But maybe we are headed for 1800?

The other problem that concerns me a little that bond funds sometimes go down with the stock market, VBTLX for example has been going down in value over the last few days.

So right now I have about 8 years or so in yearly spend in bonds and 2 years in cash and I'd be happy down to about 7 years worth total but that 7 years might not be a lot less by the time we bottom out.

I'd hate to have to find something awful like a JOB or something.

Bonds are getting hit too, even though they should be going up due to lower interest rates and flight to safety.  The problem is that spreads have blown out and the now potential supply from a trillion+ fed package is hurting bonds.   Nowhere to hide other than cash at the moment.   

I did another rebalance today though of about 5%.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2628 on: March 19, 2020, 03:39:08 AM »
We're down $295,000 since the end of last year.  This still shall pass.

We'll be fine assuming we stay reasonably healthy.

I'm more worried about regular folks, both their health and their finances.   

We are now down 12.5% since the peak. For comparison, my invested net worth dropped 40% between 2008 and 2009.

Like @SwordGuy I am worried more about others than myself.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2629 on: March 19, 2020, 03:43:36 AM »
Yeah another hit yesterday but my guess and I have no reason other than gut reaction that we will at least find a temporary bottom around where were at somewhere close. Think there will be more downside but I think the stimulus package and the big sell off will not sink the boat at least for now. If it does I am just going to stick to my plan and add dry powder every 5% down, live off cash and re-balance as well. All i can control and in long run will hopefully better off than I was. Soooo many people freaking out and I get it but wow... this is how it works. It would be nice not to see a huge snap back today but more of a sideways day i feel as well. Sure the snap back would look better on my balance but I think a sideways day would show things are stabilizing a bit. Again more gut from going through other cycles BUT the worse is always when your going through it now and until we temper the fear who knows anything.

For the first time since the outbreak China reported 0 cases overnight so hopefully that will be news that tempers a bit the minds of the doomsdayers.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 03:51:29 AM by soccerluvof4 »

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2630 on: March 19, 2020, 08:51:55 AM »
We're down $295,000 since the end of last year.  This still shall pass.

We'll be fine assuming we stay reasonably healthy.

I'm more worried about regular folks, both their health and their finances.   

Forgot to update the balance on one account in my spreadsheet.  Only down $264,000!   

What's a quarter of a million dollars (and change) among friends, eh?

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2631 on: March 19, 2020, 08:57:52 AM »
We're down $295,000 since the end of last year.  This still shall pass.

We'll be fine assuming we stay reasonably healthy.

I'm more worried about regular folks, both their health and their finances.   

We are now down 12.5% since the peak. For comparison, my invested net worth dropped 40% between 2008 and 2009.

Like @SwordGuy I am worried more about others than myself.

Markets down 30% so that implies you were 60% ish in cash and bonds.     Or is much of your NW real estate, which isn't re-marked?

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2632 on: March 19, 2020, 09:08:06 AM »
We're down $295,000 since the end of last year.  This still shall pass.

We'll be fine assuming we stay reasonably healthy.

I'm more worried about regular folks, both their health and their finances.   

We are now down 12.5% since the peak. For comparison, my invested net worth dropped 40% between 2008 and 2009.

Like @SwordGuy I am worried more about others than myself.

Markets down 30% so that implies you were 60% ish in cash and bonds.     Or is much of your NW real estate, which isn't re-marked?

A bit over half of our net worth was real estate.  Higher percentage now, of course.  We own 9 houses, 1/3 of one farm and 1/2 of another farm.  All but two houses are owned free and clear.   My wife's 401K and some of my older ones have a higher bond percentage in them than I would have preferred for the long term.   We'll talk things over this weekend and possibly move some of those bonds into stocks.

We finally closed out the last of my mom's accounts and though I had moved the cash out of the line item for her accounts, I had forgotten to update our checking account balance.    Simple mistake, but better to be surprised at having more than having less!


LightTripper

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2633 on: March 19, 2020, 10:59:46 AM »
Well I've put a little bit in today again. I am constrained by my Debit card limit for transferring money to my trading account. I started to call the bank to do a larger transfer but understandably they are asking for urgent calls only, which I can hardly rationalise this as, given presumably many others are calling about urgent solvency issues.

It will be good for me to have the brakes applied, I always tend to dive in too fast in these situations. And the bank call message was a useful reminder that many have far bigger and more immediate concerns than the date of their retirement....

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2634 on: March 19, 2020, 12:36:21 PM »
I been following a company's stock over the years because a friend was an executive there.  Last night I saw that it had been trading yesterday for 25% of the high last year ($7.50 vs $30 per share), so decided to pick some up today.  I'm used to trading index funds and had forgotten that large orders of stocks might not all get filled at the same price.  I probably should have put in a number of smaller orders to get a better price overall price, but I'm still learning. 


I think I'll play around with the stock screener and see if I can figure out how to find other stocks that are down 75% from their highs & see if I find anything interesting. 

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2635 on: March 19, 2020, 12:51:17 PM »
Buying a stock because it *used* to trade at a certain price is a form of anchoring, and a terrible way to pick stocks. Investment psychology is fascinating, and the amount of mistakes people make because of human nature is, quite frankly staggering.

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2636 on: March 19, 2020, 01:06:36 PM »
Buying a stock because it *used* to trade at a certain price is a form of anchoring, and a terrible way to pick stocks. Investment psychology is fascinating, and the amount of mistakes people make because of human nature is, quite frankly staggering.


I never read about "anchoring".  I'll have to google that and see why I shouldn't do it. 


Btw, what should I read about non-terrible ways to pick stocks? 

MoseyingAlong

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2637 on: March 19, 2020, 01:10:17 PM »
...
I never read about "anchoring".  I'll have to google that and see why I shouldn't do it. 
...

For anchoring and other biases, I highly recommend Dan Ariely and his books about behavioral finance, particularly "Predictably Irrational."

Threshkin

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2638 on: March 19, 2020, 01:55:51 PM »
I use the data from this site managed by Johns Hopkins.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

It also is the site I see quoted in the news most frequently.

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2639 on: March 19, 2020, 03:47:43 PM »
...
I never read about "anchoring".  I'll have to google that and see why I shouldn't do it. 
...

For anchoring and other biases, I highly recommend Dan Ariely and his books about behavioral finance, particularly "Predictably Irrational."


I found a Ted Talks he did about Predictably Irrational.  I'll start with that.


Thanks

AdrianC

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2640 on: March 19, 2020, 05:55:58 PM »
We are now down 12.5% since the peak. For comparison, my invested net worth dropped 40% between 2008 and 2009.
I dared to open my portfolio spreadsheet this morning and let it update. Down 21%. Not bad. Was at 80/20, now at 75/25. I should buy more stocks, but...hmmm. Iíll wait a bit. I did do some tax loss harvesting with international stocks.

In Ď09 we were down 50% at one point.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2641 on: March 19, 2020, 06:43:53 PM »
Lots of food for thought on the latest EconTalk podcast - https://www.econtalk.org/tyler-cowen-on-the-covid-19-pandemic/

we live in some fascinating, quick moving times!

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2642 on: March 20, 2020, 02:47:41 AM »
Quadruple witching day today....Should be a lot of volatility in the market at the open and the close. Yesterdays action seem the first health day since this outbreak but with the way bad news keeps pouring in not sure its going to make much difference.

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2643 on: March 20, 2020, 03:40:49 AM »
Quadruple witching day today....Should be a lot of volatility in the market at the open and the close. Yesterdays action seem the first health day since this outbreak but with the way bad news keeps pouring in not sure its going to make much difference.

Yup - having the market go sideways was a relief. Much prefer it to wild swings.

On another positive note, money market funds are being propped up as well

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2644 on: March 20, 2020, 06:27:49 AM »
There are predictions that next weeks unemployment claims will top 2,000,000+, and I'm wondering how the market will melt down on that. Q2 earnings/GDP contraction will also hurt. I wish the market would just bottom out and get it over with.

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2645 on: March 20, 2020, 07:37:20 AM »
We are now down 12.5% since the peak. For comparison, my invested net worth dropped 40% between 2008 and 2009.
I dared to open my portfolio spreadsheet this morning and let it update. Down 21%. Not bad. Was at 80/20, now at 75/25. I should buy more stocks, but...hmmm. Iíll wait a bit. I did do some tax loss harvesting with international stocks.

In Ď09 we were down 50% at one point.

I sold my taxable international and rolled some bonds to a similar but not substantially similar in my tax deferred and also rolled some VTSAX with gains in same way.   Still have some tax losses that can and will be used at some point.  It was all for the tax losses and maintained my AA overall.   

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2646 on: March 20, 2020, 08:00:40 AM »
True confession time; hold the face punches, please. We use a money manager. After much research during my single days, I found someone whose philosophy is mustachian enough for me. When DH and I married seven years ago, we combined our resources under the same advisor. DH had begun to balk at their fees, usually around tax time. I knew we could DIY this, but having a widely diversified portfolio that I do not manage directly saved my ass in 2000 and 2008. Anyway, because I'd had an account with Vanguard through a previous employer in my maiden name (long since rolled over), we hit a glitch. The result of which is that it just didn't get done.

In down times, I can and do easily avoid checking balances, because I know they are being managed by someone far more competent than I. Personal history has shown that a widely diversified strategy really helps when the market tanks. This morning, over breakfast, DH and I were discussing how all the gains during the Trump Administration have now been erased. We then discussed how much worse off we'd likely be if we had completed the move to Vanguard (Nothing against Vanguard. We just would have DIY'd a much less diversified portfolio.) DH blurted out how much our portfolio has dropped. I was pleasantly surprised to learn that we are down far less than the stock market as a whole, and that we still qualify to be in this club. Cool!

In other news, our Donor Advised Fund is with Fidelity, and 100% in stocks. Damn, I wish I'd issued some checks in early February!. Ouch. Fortunately,  it's not large, and not part of our NW calculations. Neither is the small inherited 401k I have, which is also all in stocks. It was my plan to roll the RMD's into the DAF. I guess I still can, but dang, I don't want to look at the balances! I think I'll ignore them both until Q4. Perhaps our outstanding charitable commitments will just be cash flowed this year. MPP, for sure.

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2647 on: March 20, 2020, 10:43:50 AM »
We are down quite a bit. In actual terms an eye watering amount of money, evaporating. That said, it's hard for me to get worked up about it, because of course not actual loss (yet) & feeling so grateful that we are in an amazing place to ride out the storm regardless.

itchyfeet

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2648 on: March 20, 2020, 12:23:12 PM »
I am feeling pretty bummed about my mounting losses. I have been second guessing myself whether I should have had less in stocks, but I keep coming to the same conclusion that I would do nothing different if I had my time again and that my investments were and are appropriate. Itís just a bit of bad luck that this virus hit just before I got to FIRE. On the other hand itís also good luck that I hadnít resigned yet and I can hold onto my job until the uncertainty is behind us. I will keep buying in the hope and belief that there will be a recovery in the next year or 3.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2649 on: March 20, 2020, 01:07:18 PM »
I am feeling pretty bummed about my mounting losses. I have been second guessing myself whether I should have had less in stocks, but I keep coming to the same conclusion that I would do nothing different if I had my time again and that my investments were and are appropriate. Itís just a bit of bad luck that this virus hit just before I got to FIRE. On the other hand itís also good luck that I hadnít resigned yet and I can hold onto my job until the uncertainty is behind us. I will keep buying in the hope and belief that there will be a recovery in the next year or 3.

And when it does recover, all that investing out of payroll will turn out to be a whopping big bonus for waiting.