Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!

[Exflyboy]

I did let DW buy a USED $1700 mountain bike this week!

let...

hahahaha

Yeah there was no "Let" involved.. and nor should there be..:)

[jdfergason]

12/14/2019: $1,628,320.78
01/01/2020: $1,705,284.27
02/02/2020: $1,838,397.87
02/13/2020: $1,961,653.87
02/19/2020: $2,000,505.43

Thats nearly a 400k increase in 2 months. The S&P 500 returned about 7% over that same time period. There are some serious outside cash flows rolling in to make that possible! I’m assuming you get some nice bonuses? Congrats!

[EscapeVelocity2020]

12/14/2019: $1,628,320.78
01/01/2020: $1,705,284.27
02/02/2020: $1,838,397.87
02/13/2020: $1,961,653.87
02/19/2020: $2,000,505.43

Thats nearly a 400k increase in 2 months. The S&P 500 returned about 7% over that same time period. There are some serious outside cash flows rolling in to make that possible! I’m assuming you get some nice bonuses? Congrats!

I’m guessing Herbert works for Tesla!

[Bateaux]

12/14/2019: $1,628,320.78
01/01/2020: $1,705,284.27
02/02/2020: $1,838,397.87
02/13/2020: $1,961,653.87
02/19/2020: $2,000,505.43

Thats nearly a 400k increase in 2 months. The S&P 500 returned about 7% over that same time period. There are some serious outside cash flows rolling in to make that possible! I’m assuming you get some nice bonuses? Congrats!

I’m guessing Herbert works for Tesla!

Ahh.  That would mesh perfectly.

[Herbert Derp]

I can neither confirm nor deny these allegations

[Bateaux]

I can neither confirm nor deny these allegations

You're way younger than many of us but, you're going to fit in perfectly.

[BeanCounter]

Well for one day our total NW was just over 3M. But yesterday’s little dip fixed that.
Of course that includes a conservative estimate of $95k in home equity. Don’t plan on selling or moving.
Regardless, our AA is 85% equities, 10% bonds, 5% cash. It can make for a wild ride, which could certainly be scary after I RE in May.  But since we are only 42 I think it only makes sense to have a high allocation to equities. The cash is about 2.5 years of expenses which should give us time in a downturn.

[Exflyboy]

Well for one day our total NW was just over 3M. But yesterday’s little dip fixed that.
Of course that includes a conservative estimate of $95k in home equity. Don’t plan on selling or moving.
Regardless, our AA is 85% equities, 10% bonds, 5% cash. It can make for a wild ride, which could certainly be scary after I RE in May.  But since we are only 42 I think it only makes sense to have a high allocation to equities. The cash is about 2.5 years of expenses which should give us time in a downturn.

I think you might be ok.. Just..;)

[Dancin'Dog]

I moved quite a bit of cash from my Vanguard MM settlement fund into VIGAX yesterday.  I checked it this morning to confirm it went through & see if it had lost or gained anything, but now I'm thinking it wouldn't show either until today's close, right?


Anyway they gave me 3 pennies extra for some reason.  Wonder what that's about?  Is that the online equivalent to a free lolly-pop?

[itchyfeet]

All the talk of cycling in these parts must have affected me subliminally. I dusted off my old steed and made it out for a ride twice this past week. Just 20kms each time, so not so far, but far enough to know I am extremely unfit... well I knew that just lying on the sofa.

 I have piled on the weight these past 6 years living in The UAE and need to make some efforts this year to get FIRE fit. I figure if I can just commit to cycling for an hour 3 times a week it will be a good start.

It is probably surprising to those of you who haven’t spent time in the Midlde East, but cycling is massively popular here. Hard to believe huh!

[Bateaux]

All the talk of cycling in these parts must have affected me subliminally. I dusted off my old steed and made it out for a ride twice this past week. Just 20kms each time, so not so far, but far enough to know I am extremely unfit... well I knew that just lying on the sofa.

 I have piled on the weight these past 6 years living in The UAE and need to make some efforts this year to get FIRE fit. I figure if I can just commit to cycling for an hour 3 times a week it will be a good start.

It is probably surprising to those of you who haven’t spent time in the Midlde East, but cycling is massively popular here. Hard to believe huh!

Enjoy your bike!

[ysette9]

All the talk of cycling in these parts must have affected me subliminally. I dusted off my old steed and made it out for a ride twice this past week. Just 20kms each time, so not so far, but far enough to know I am extremely unfit... well I knew that just lying on the sofa.

 I have piled on the weight these past 6 years living in The UAE and need to make some efforts this year to get FIRE fit. I figure if I can just commit to cycling for an hour 3 times a week it will be a good start.

It is probably surprising to those of you who haven’t spent time in the Midlde East, but cycling is massively popular here. Hard to believe huh!

That does seem a bit surprising to me. Isn’t it a million degrees over there most of the time?

[itchyfeet]

In fact the weather is lovely for 8 months of the year. For 4 months a year it’s like living inside a furnace.... even in the summer months cycling is popular though. You just need to be done before 8am. After that it’s unbearable.

At the moment the weather is 22 degrees celsius or 70 degrees Fahrenheit.

[Bateaux]

At the risk of getting banned, I'm making another bicycle post.  A younger, stronger and faster co-worker just suggested we head over to my house in Florida and ride 300 miles of forest, jungle, swamps and bike trails.  The route is a loop through central Florida that passes a couple of miles from our house.  It's the Huracan 300 race route.  I may die!   Watching the intro to the movie "127 Hours right now to get pumped up!"  This happens the first week of April.  I'm not fooling.



https://bikepacking.com/event/huracan-300-challenge-2020/
[urlhttps://bikepacking.com/event/huracan-300-challenge-2020/url]

[EscapeVelocity2020]

At the risk of getting banned, I'm making another bicycle post.  A younger, stronger and faster co-worker just suggested we head over to my house in Florida and ride 300 miles of forest, jungle, swamps and bike trails.  The route is a loop through central Florida that passes a couple of miles from our house.  It's the Huracan 300 race route.  I may die!   Watching the intro to the movie "127 Hours right now to get pumped up!"  This happens the first week of April.  I'm not fooling.

My coworkers were telling me I should sign up for the 401k.  I told them, 'I'm not an idiot, I could never run that far!'.

Good luck Bateaux!

[itchyfeet]

My coworkers were telling me I should sign up for the 401k.  I told them, 'I'm not an idiot, I could never run that far!'.

Good luck Bateaux!

Oh dear 🥺

[ysette9]

Lol

[Car Jack]

At the risk of getting banned, I'm making another bicycle post.  A younger, stronger and faster co-worker just suggested we head over to my house in Florida and ride 300 miles of forest, jungle, swamps and bike trails.  The route is a loop through central Florida that passes a couple of miles from our house.  It's the Huracan 300 race route.  I may die!   Watching the intro to the movie "127 Hours right now to get pumped up!"  This happens the first week of April.  I'm not fooling.



https://bikepacking.com/event/huracan-300-challenge-2020/
[urlhttps://bikepacking.com/event/huracan-300-challenge-2020/url]

I'll be right there with ya.  I used to roadrace competitively and took up mountain biking after too many LOL'ing 16 year olds nearly ran me off the road.  I'll watch it on tv (which is what I mean by being right there with ya).

[2Birds1Stone]

Always so quiet in here on these big down days.

How's everyone feeling?

[bluebelle]

Always so quiet in here on these big down days.

How's everyone feeling?

much like how I treat the bathroom scale after a pig-out - I'm ignoring the market until I think I'll like the number better.  :-)

[ysette9]

Hah!

My husband wants us to invest a chunk of cash that just hit our checking account vais the market is on sale. That is on my To Do list for today

[Much Fishing to Do]

Always so quiet in here on these big down days.

How's everyone feeling?

much like how I treat the bathroom scale after a pig-out - I'm ignoring the market until I think I'll like the number better.  :-)

Yeah, I'm definitely a fair weather fan... I have CNBC on during the good weeks and avoid it during weeks like this!  Of course, I treat my sports teams the same way I guess...I don't change allegiances when times are bad but it sure is a lot less painful to just look away for a while....

[Bateaux]

Always so quiet in here on these big down days.

How's everyone feeling?

Yesterday I lost enough money to buy a nice Tesla Model 3.  By the end of the day, probably enough to buy a Tesla Model S.   By the end of the week, probably a tricked out Tesla Model X 100D.  But, I have a nice bicycle and a 12 year old duct tapped Honda Accord.  No worries.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Always so quiet in here on these big down days.

How's everyone feeling?

Market has been in 'bubble like' mode for a long time just going up and up without a 20% correction, not feeling very surprised.  I'm just wondering if it will go back to new highs in short order (like December '18 to Jan '19) or if this will become a real shake-out that gets the CAPE back to reasonable levels.  Only time will tell...  not touching anything, other than continuing regular 401k, 529, and ESPP contributions.  Sadly, the US hasn't taken advantage of the good times to run a budget surplus and shrink the Fed balance sheet, so maybe a silver lining will be that this stops the even larger 2020 budget deficit from becoming a reality.

[Exflyboy]

Yeah I'm "only" $135,000 down from the recent peak.. no biggie..

I better not mention this to DW..:)

[2Birds1Stone]

@EscapeVelocity2020, we had a 20%+ correction right around the end of 2018.

[Exflyboy]

@EscapeVelocity2020, we had a 20%+ correction right around the end of 2018.

I think it was 19.8% or something.. I was getting ready to roll 1/3rd of my bond allocation to stocks and I missed it!..:(

[LightTripper]

I'm too much in cash at the moment, so I'm happy with down (though don't tempt me to calculate my losses.... That wouldn't have occurred to me and now I sort of want to!!)

But feels a bit early and small to really be considered a "sale", so I'll just stick to my previous plan unless something really dramatic happens.

Plus, if Corona really goes pandemic I suspect access to cheap shares will feel like cold comfort...

[ysette9]

I wouldn’t have noticed the gyrations if my husband hadn’t mentioned something

[pecunia]

We're plunging down from the thin air in the stratosphere where, frankly, it's been a little hard to think straight.  After the market loses a bit more percentage with some rough turbulence, we'll level off face the sunshine and the blue skies ahead.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

@EscapeVelocity2020, we had a 20%+ correction right around the end of 2018.

I think it was 19.8% or something.. I was getting ready to roll 1/3rd of my bond allocation to stocks and I missed it!..:(

Yes, that was the dip I was talking about, this might be another one of those.  It was short and fully rebounded within a month, then on to new highs, so it was barely a correction and certainly not a bear market or recession.  I assume the rebound was because the Fed stopped raising rates and became accommodating (going on to cut rates and start QE4), plus we had those generous corporate tax cuts.

Eventually America will have to balance the budget (taxes will have to rise and/or programs will have to be cut), and maybe a recession will help us realize what a mess we are sinking deeper in to.  That more we put that off, the worse the tax increase or program cuts will be.  America will have to prioritize servicing the debt to our bond/treasury holders, since we have become dependent on access to debt.

[Dancin'Dog]

I think I may have made the purchase that broke the elevator.  I don't know what I was thinking, but I chose last Thursday to buy some (as in too much) VIGAX.  It's fallen about 7%, so far. 


Looks like we'll be drinking the cheap stuff for a while...  ;) 

[Dancin'Dog]

Yeah I'm "only" $135,000 down from the recent peak.. no biggie..

I better not mention this to DW..:)

Good thing she already got the new bike. :)

[2sk22]

Not much to add except that I am cash-heavy compared to most in this forum. My only planned action is to increase my monthly post-tax automated purchase of S&P 500 index. I have had this automatic purchase running unbroken since 1997!

[Dicey]

We're cash heavy as well. Time to fill up our Roth buckets.

Just wishing I'd ordered those checks from the DAF last week, before we left on vacation. Oh, well, I can hold off sending them for a few more weeks and see what happens. I suppose it wouldn't be a bad time to dump some cash into that as well.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Interesting perspective on NPR this morning.  The economic shock from Covid isn't just a demand side disruption, which the Fed has tools to deal with (making money cheaper and more available).  If a pandemic should take hold, supply chains will be disrupted and now it is a supply side issue.  Even if people want their electronics from China and have the money, the supply will not be there.  Companies have already re-jiggered their supply chains as much as possible due to the tariffs, so there isn't any quick fix left.  So, ironically, the pandemic might just deliver Trump's 'America First' objective of reducing global trade, maybe that is why he doesn't seem to want to address it.

The pandemic would also be good for the environment with less people traveling, slower overall consumption, and having to make things last longer...   so hey, it's not all bad news.

[Car Jack]

My AA target is 50/50.  After these 2 days, I'm at 49.95/51.05.  With everyone's hair on fire, I thought for sure I'd hit a rebalance 5% trigger.  Not even close.

I guess I'm waiting another week.  My ESPP shares vest Monday.  I'll sell Tuesday.  Then decide what I want to do.  I have no plans for the money this time.  I'll move some into BRK/b, I guess. 

[Car Jack]

Interesting perspective on NPR this morning.  The economic shock from Covid isn't just a demand side disruption, which the Fed has tools to deal with (making money cheaper and more available).  If a pandemic should take hold, supply chains will be disrupted and now it is a supply side issue.  Even if people want their electronics from China and have the money, the supply will not be there.  Companies have already re-jiggered their supply chains as much as possible due to the tariffs, so there isn't any quick fix left.  So, ironically, the pandemic might just deliver Trump's 'America First' objective of reducing global trade, maybe that is why he doesn't seem to want to address it.

The pandemic would also be good for the environment with less people traveling, slower overall consumption, and having to make things last longer...   so hey, it's not all bad news.

Our company (we make ICs) has programmer boards built in China.  The factory has not re-opened since Lunar New Year.  We're being pro-active, searching our desks for these kits so we can provide them to customers.  Like everyone, we assemble in the Philippines which hasn't been hit.

Travel for training in North America has been addressed.  One big meeting at the mother ship was done completely by web ex.  The next one, instead of travel to the mother ship will be done by region.  Travel to the far east on business has all been cancelled.  Travel of the far east teams within region has all been cancelled.  North American travel to visit customers is still open as is Europe.

What a great plan that the CDC budget was cut.  Wonderful.

[jeroly]

My AA target is 50/50.  After these 2 days, I'm at 49.95/51.05. 

101% invested? Leveraged?

[itchyfeet]

There’s always someone to catch minor typos.

[itchyfeet]

I have a little cash lying around. Maybe $50K..

I’ve been holding back on putting it to work, just because stocks have been on a “too good to last” run.

I sat on my hands again today, betting on a bit more of a slide over the coming week.

It’s tough not to entertain a little bit of market timing in times like these.

I definitely won’t need the cash in the next couple of years, so i should invest without even a 2nd thought.... but...😬,

[2sk22]

Our company (we make ICs) has programmer boards built in China.  The factory has not re-opened since Lunar New Year.  We're being pro-active, searching our desks for these kits so we can provide them to customers.  Like everyone, we assemble in the Philippines which hasn't been hit.

Travel for training in North America has been addressed.  One big meeting at the mother ship was done completely by web ex.  The next one, instead of travel to the mother ship will be done by region.  Travel to the far east on business has all been cancelled.  Travel of the far east teams within region has all been cancelled.  North American travel to visit customers is still open as is Europe.

What a great plan that the CDC budget was cut.  Wonderful.

My wife who works in the pharmaceuticals industry jus told me that many of the generic drugs and the ingredients for them come form China, much of which was produced in the worst affected region. Even the generics that come from India often depend on Chinese ingredients and the supply chains are completely opaque!

[AdrianC]

I'll move some into BRK/b, I guess.

It doesn’t get this cheap very often, on a price to book (about 1.25x), or really any other basis. I already have a ridiculous amount. I’m going to be tempted if it gets much lower, though. I hope Warren’s phone is ringing.

[Car Jack]

My AA target is 50/50.  After these 2 days, I'm at 49.95/51.05. 

101% invested? Leveraged?

I've never been good at transcribing.....  According to the spread sheet now, 49.85/50.15. 

[Exflyboy]

I might consider a rebalance tomorrow.. Using my wet thumb it looks like I should have moved from 75/25 to about 73/27 (stock to bonds).

If the market goes down by 20% I am going to 80/20.

Exciting times..:)

[soccerluvof4]

I've been sitting on more cash then usual and will start adding if we get to 15% and it settle in a bit, would be my first move

[LightTripper]

OK, even I might buy in a bit tomorrow (obviously : cue huge crash thereafter).

[SwordGuy]

I have an awesome defense against panicking about this drop in the market.

I'm so damn tired from packing, moving and unpacking I don't have the energy to panic.

[londonbanker]

$150k drop in nw over the past week.... do I care? - not much as I am not pulling the FIRE trigger for another couple of years. I still see this as a nice opportunity to buy if we get into bear market. Still 25% liquid overall, that should set me up nicely.

[Much Fishing to Do]

Crap, went from 103% FI to 96%...knew I should have hurried up and FIREd last week ;-)